A month into the season, most of my preseason predictions have been way off base. While my Jake Peavy, Gio Gonzalez and Colby Lewis predictions no longer seem as radical as when I wrote them, I completely missed the mark on a few players, most notably Chris Davis (who I pegged for a .280 BA, 30+ HR season) and Max Scherzer. This post is about the latter.
Mad Max seems about as broken as Javier Vazquez. Scherzer's velocity is down two miles per hour across the board. The fastball, which once sat comfortably in the mid-90s, is now struggling to reach 92. As it's been shown time and time again, velocity and success are highly correlated. The pitch selection and usage remains the same for Scherzer this year compared to last, but there is a notable change in effectiveness.
Though Mad Max is getting more batters to swing at his pitches outside of the zone, those batters are making more contact with all of his offerings -- both inside and outside the zone. The result, a substantially lower K/9 rate and a 6.03 ERA/1.46 WHIP after tonight's 10 ER fiasco, has been substantially less pretty than the 3.78 ERA I predicted for him this offseason.
Am I still behind my man? Not at the moment. I've cut him loose in all leagues which I owned The Dirty Scherz, either by trade or waiver claim. There are a few points of concern regarding Scherzer going forward that should be monitored closely if you wish to retain or acquire his services on the cheap:
1) Declining GB%
Scherzer, who posted a 41.7% groundball rate in both 2008 and 2009, was never going to be confused with Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe. However, he maintained a respectable GB/FB rate (above 1.00) in those two seasons. This year, however, the groundball rate has precipitously fallen five points to 36.3%. Most of these non-groundballs have seen themselves in the form of line drives. The result? More hits, more home runs, more problems.
2) Declining Speed
It's not just the fastball which is down 2 MPH. All of Mad Max's pitches have less gas on them this year. Is it injury? Change in delivery? His general mechanics seems to be about the same this season (compare his 04/28/10 movement and release points to his 07/08/09 midseason form). Who knows what is wrong? Until you do, tread with caution.
3) Neutral LOB% and BABIP
Entering tonight's start, Scherzer had a 70.6% strand rate (this normalizes around 72% over time) and a .309 BABIP. Nothing about those two numbers screams "bad luck." Scherzer has just plain pitched poorly.
On a bright note, it is good that Mad Max is walking less guys this season (2.28 BB/9 entering tonight's game versus a 3.22 career mark). However, the decreased velocity, groundballs and strikeouts paired with an increase in contact makes me worried. Max is young enough and the season is early enough for Scherzer to right the ship. But is the gamble worth it? Probably long term, but I would at least bench Scherzer until he works things out. At least with Jaime Garcia, who had a great outing against the Phillies tonight, waddling on the waiver wire.
Showing posts with label Max Scherzer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Max Scherzer. Show all posts
Forecasting Max Scherzer For 2010
In 2008, Max Scherzer broke into the major league scene, along with Clayton Kershaw, as one of the minor league's top pitching prospects. As would be expected of a #11 overall pick with 3 pitches, including a quality mid-90s fastball and a nasty mid-80s power slider, Scherzer required little seasoning (less than two years) in the minors before making it to the bigs. From the get go, Scherzer made his name known. In his first major league appearance, Scherzer pitched 4.1 innings, striking out 7, allowing nobody on base. Amongst rookies to own that year, he was arguably hotter than king prospect Jay Bruce. He ended the season with a 145 strikouts in 109 innings split evenly between AAA and the majors; his MLB ERA was 3.09. His xFIP in the limited sample size, 3.19, screamed potential.Thus, 2009's results were not exactly the kind of numbers owners expected when they drafted him last year. From a fantasy perspective, the 174 Ks in 170.1 IP were great, but the 4.12 ERA, 1.34 and early season injury woes were less than Lincecum-like (though, mind you, Lincecum did notch 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP during his rookie season) and far inferior to another young pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, who, through a lot of flyball luck, tossed 171 innings of 2.89 ERA baseball (with 185 Ks to boot).
On the surface, Kershaw looked like the better pick last season and Scherzer seemed merely serviceable. But anyone who reads this blog knows we preach looking beyond the surface when analyzing pitchers and hitters.
Whereas Clayton Kershaw, one of the majors most FB-happy pitchers last season, posted a much less pretty (but still valuable) 3.90 xFIP, Scherzer's peripheral talents (K/9, BB/9 and GB%) lent to a 3.88 xFIP. Whereas Kershaw got lucky with the HRs (his 4.1% HR/FB rate was the lowest in the majors), Scherzer was hampered by bad luck (68.7 LOB%, .323 BABIP).
In forecasting Scherzer's 2010 prospects, we first need a baseline from which to adjust. Because Scherzer's 2009 FIP (3.87) and xFIP (3.88) were essentially identical last season, picking between them as a baseline for 2010 is a moot task. As a big believer in xFIP, however, I would have sided with the later if necessary. In short, we'll use 3.88 as Scherzer's 2010 ERA baseline.
Using 5 year data from 2004 to 2008, The Hardball Times found that a pitcher who switched over from the NL to AL primarily saw changes in their K/9 rate (-0.57) and ERA (+0.41). Accounting for these factors and holding Scherzer's 2009 rates constant, this would give Scherzer an 8.62 K/9 and 4.29 ERA. Not exactly the step forward Scherzer owners are hoping for in 2010. However, there is hope.
In computing Scherzer's 2010 prospects, we do not only need to account for a change in league, but also a change in park dimensions and the quality of the defense behind him. Let's begin by accounting for the change in park dimensions. While one year park factor data is nice for seasonal statistic adjustments, one really needs a larger sample size to get a more accurate reading of a park's true effects on runs scoring. According to Baseball Reference's multi-year park factor data, Chase Field has inflated run scoring by 9%, while Comerica Park has inflated run scoring by 3%. Let's say that Max Scherzer pitches 180 innings in 2010; not unreasonable. With a league-change adjusted ERA of 4.29, that would mean Scherzer allows 85.80 runs to score. Scaled back from Chase Field to the hypothetical neutral field, this runs allowed total decreases to 78.72 runs. Adjusted for Comerica Park, this runs allowed total increases to 81.08.
Next, we need to account for the change in defense. Given the unknown defensive abilities of Scott Sizemore and Magglio's inevitable move from RF to DH, let's simply hold the Tigers defense as constant from 2009 to 2010. In 2009, the Tigers, collectively as a team, prevented 43.6 Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR). The Tigers also played 1,447 innings of defense. That means the Tigers defense prevented a little over .03 runs per inning of play compared to the "league average" defense. In other words, over the course of 180 innings, the Tigers would prevent an additional 5.42 runs compared to the neutral context. Subtract this from the park adjusted runs allowed total from above and we get an expected 75.66 runs allowed from Max Scherzer in 2010. This would account for an expected ERA of 3.78.
Given the adjustment in strikeouts, Scherzer would accompany that 3.78 ERA with approximately 173 K's to boot. Given a fresh slate of luck and a better defense in Detroit, I would expect some improvement in Scherzer's 2010 WHIP (1.34 in 2009), so let's peg the over/under around 1.30. Sounds solid, right? So why isn't Max Scherzer getting any love?
Yahoo Sports ranks this production at #261 overall. In a 12 team league, that would make Scherzer a 21st round pick. That puts him in the company of such starting pitchers as Bronson Arroyo (#259), Ted Lilly (#260), Daisuke Matsuzaka (#262) and Kyle Lohse (#263). Ted Lilly, though awesome and underrated, is injured and injury prone at this point, while the other 3 pitchers just aren't that good and provide limited (if any) upside. Given his pedigree, peripherals and clear upside, it seems like Yahoo is giving Scherzer an awfully low ranking. By contrast, MDC (which I equate to the free market) values Scherzer as the #143 pick overall (as of 3/12/10, he has not been drafted before pick 120 or after pick 160). This puts Scherzer in the company of such starting pitchers as Jered Weaver (#132), Jair Jurjjens (#139), Brett Anderson (#149) and Scott Baker (#151). This makes more sense as guys like Weaver, Jurjjens and Baker offer similar value (trading upside for reliability and expectation) and Anderson, like Scherzer, is a " has potential, but still offers some risk" kind of guy like Scherzer (only with less K's and more GB's).
In short, Max Scherzer is an underrated fantasy asset for 2010. According to Roto Authority's "what it takes to win" estimates for 2010, the average starting pitcher on your squad will should accumulate a 3.78 ERA, 181 K's and 13.67 Wins. Sounds an awful lot like Scherzer's 2010 outlook to me; who knows what will happen if he tops 200 innings.Oh, and he's got that two different colored eyes thing going on, a la David Bowie.
Why Is Max Scherzer Ranked So Low?
EDITOR'S NOTE: Do you not understand FIP, xFIP, or a lot about sabermetrics? I recommend you read this first before proceeding to get a better understanding of the arguments being made.
You can always find some nice value late in your draft. Sure, those players probably won't have the same numbers as your top ranked players, but still great value. Except for one guy- The Dirty Scherz aka Max Scherzer.
Yahoo! ranks Scherzer as the 263rd best player available. This is ridiculous. ESPN ranks Scherzer as the 152nd best player and MockDraftCentral ranks Scherzer as the 146th. So why the disparity?
I frankly can't answer that at all. All I can say is that Scherzer will be a top 25 pitcher next year so if you can get him around 260, then you've just gotten the best value in your draft. Based on DME's rankings, he ranks Scherzer as the 13th best pitcher available. While I don't have a complete list and rankings of pitchers, I did compile a list of how players rank based upon their past three years (if they had less than three years major league experience, I used my own judgment to compile their data). While my list is nowhere near scientific, I had Scherzer as the 5th best guy in K/9 and the 18th best guy for xFIP. Essentially, Scherz is going to strike out a ton of guys with a decently low ERA.
Scherzer has always been a top prospect so it should be no surprise that Scherzer excels. In his first full year as a starter he posted a 9.19 K/9 rate (good for 11th overall), a 3.87 FIP (33rd overall), and a 3.88 xFIP (27th overall). Sure that ERA isn't going to be top 10 good, but it's certainly should dip to way under 4.00 for next year. And moving to Detroit should only enhance his stats even more. Last year, the Tigers had the 4th best defense last year. Sure, the Diamondbacks were pretty good, but not better than the Tigers.
One last argument that could be made is that The Dirty Scherz is moving from the weaker league to the tougher one. OK, so his stats will drop a little bit. But also keep in mind, that Scherzer is young and should only get better with age.
Will Scherzer be a top 15 guy next year? Probably not. But would I take him ahead of Gavin Floyd? Jake Peavy? Jair Jurrgins? Roy Oswalt? Carlos Zambrano? You bet I would. And yet Scherzer is being ranked in Yahoo! as below all those guys. What's the deal Yahoo!?
You can always find some nice value late in your draft. Sure, those players probably won't have the same numbers as your top ranked players, but still great value. Except for one guy- The Dirty Scherz aka Max Scherzer.
Yahoo! ranks Scherzer as the 263rd best player available. This is ridiculous. ESPN ranks Scherzer as the 152nd best player and MockDraftCentral ranks Scherzer as the 146th. So why the disparity?
I frankly can't answer that at all. All I can say is that Scherzer will be a top 25 pitcher next year so if you can get him around 260, then you've just gotten the best value in your draft. Based on DME's rankings, he ranks Scherzer as the 13th best pitcher available. While I don't have a complete list and rankings of pitchers, I did compile a list of how players rank based upon their past three years (if they had less than three years major league experience, I used my own judgment to compile their data). While my list is nowhere near scientific, I had Scherzer as the 5th best guy in K/9 and the 18th best guy for xFIP. Essentially, Scherz is going to strike out a ton of guys with a decently low ERA.
Scherzer has always been a top prospect so it should be no surprise that Scherzer excels. In his first full year as a starter he posted a 9.19 K/9 rate (good for 11th overall), a 3.87 FIP (33rd overall), and a 3.88 xFIP (27th overall). Sure that ERA isn't going to be top 10 good, but it's certainly should dip to way under 4.00 for next year. And moving to Detroit should only enhance his stats even more. Last year, the Tigers had the 4th best defense last year. Sure, the Diamondbacks were pretty good, but not better than the Tigers.
One last argument that could be made is that The Dirty Scherz is moving from the weaker league to the tougher one. OK, so his stats will drop a little bit. But also keep in mind, that Scherzer is young and should only get better with age.
Will Scherzer be a top 15 guy next year? Probably not. But would I take him ahead of Gavin Floyd? Jake Peavy? Jair Jurrgins? Roy Oswalt? Carlos Zambrano? You bet I would. And yet Scherzer is being ranked in Yahoo! as below all those guys. What's the deal Yahoo!?
Tigers-Yankees-Diamondbacks Blockbuster Trade
According to MLBTradeRumors, a blockbuster trade has been completed between the Tigers, Yankees, and Diamondbacks. Each team is rumored to get the following players:
Tigers:
The Tigers
The Tigers by far got the best end of this deal. Seeking to shed payroll, fill in some bullpen holes, and acquire cheap, young talent, the Tigers traded away one of the games best value players (Granderson) who plays a mean CF in terms of both offense and defense, in addition to a soon-to-be 27 year old hard-throwing right-handed SP (Jackson) who over-performed last year and generally has below average, but improving control, no strikeout talent and two years left until he reaches free agency. In exchange, the Tigers received four quality players and met each of their goals. The prize of the Tigers' acquisition was Max Scherzer, a soon-to-be 26 year old, hard-throwing right-handed SP (Scherzer) with high strikeout talent, above-average control and three, possibly four, more years of team control before he becomes arbitration eligible. If Scherzer does not qualify for super-two status next offseason, the Tigers will end up paying a better-than-Jackson SP less than $1 million, while Jackson probably makes at least $10 million over that same time frame. In addition to Scherzer, the Tigers also acquired two relievers: Phil Coke, a solid and above average RP who limited the walks and struck out more batters than the league average while playing in the AL East last year, from the Yankees and Daniel Schlereth, a closer-of-the-future kind of RP with great stuff and questionable control, from the Diamondbacks. Considering that Lyons and Rodney are free agents, this gives the team more leverage when dealing with Brandon Lyon and a viable set of cheap, late-inning relievers for the Tigers. The Tigers also got Austin Jackson, one of the Yankee's top prospects, who profiles as a league-average (or better) hitting CF with great speed and range to replace Granderson. At just 22 years old, Jackson has a lot of upside and 6 years of major league control left to his name.
Conclusion: The Tigers accomplished everyone of their team's goals with this trade. They shed payroll, replaced semi-expensive players with cheap replacements, filled bullpen holes and upgraded their starting rotation.
The Yankees
The Yankees also made out big with this trade. With Johnny Damon departing to free agency and 4th OFs Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner and not-quite-ready CF prospect Austin Jackson left to fill both center and left fields, the Yankees were in search of one, if not two, outfielders. Although you can never discount the Yankees getting involved in the Matt Holliday/Jason Bay sweepstakes, this helps the team fill up centerfield at a great value and it gives the team a lot more negotiating leverage against Scott Boras and his clients (Damon, Holliday). Granderson is without a doubt an all around upgrade over the aging and expensive Damon and if the Yankees can clobber everyone on their way to a world series title with Damon in left and Cabrera/Gardner, I see no reason why they can't do it with Granderson in center and Cabrera/Gardner in left. With Granderson, the Yankees acquired a not-cheap, but not-expensive player with some of the best all around tools in the game (walks, hits for power, quality range, average arm) and probably have plenty of money left over -- especially if they let Damon walk -- to make another big free agency splash while keeping the payroll under the 2008 mark. And what did it cost them? None of their core young talent (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Dunn, or Jesus Montero). Just a slightly above average, but still useful reliever (Phil Coke) and a starting pitcher with no room on the roster and more hype than true talent (Ian Kennedy, aka "the next Greg Maddux").
Conclusion: The Yankees got what they needed -- a quality outfielder and leverage in the free agency market -- at a great value in terms of both $ cost and players traded, so they are sure to be great for online betting.
The Diamondbacks
Oh boy, where to begin. The Diamondbacks got ripped off. They traded away a young, cheap ace pitcher and high talent potential closer of the future and bought high on a hard-throwing (but improving) SP (Jackson) who over-performed last season and has at least two less years of team control to his name in addition to a brand name minor leaguer with limited "success" at any level of play since 2007. For a guy who is supposed to be "the next Greg Maddux, he needs to start limiting the walks (his career major-league equivalent BB/9 is 3.95). Kennedy is still relatively young (soon-to-be 26) and has been getting better at the strikeouts in AAA, but he's entering his "prime years" and has yet to show any significant major league success.
Conclusion: Kennedy may provide the Diamondbacks with a quality arm, but the risk inherent in him putting it all together (in addition to the probable regression from Jackson, a pitcher who outperformed his peripherals last year and also has a four year trend of increasing FB tendencies) makes trading away a cheap stud like Scherzer and high ceiling reliever like Schlereth an unwise gamble.
____
All in all, it's not like anyone expected the Diamondbacks to contend in 2010 anyways. Perhaps the team, realizing this, decided to take the long-term risk with Kennedy (who the Yankees had no room for), while gaining another arm (Jackson), who, in addition to Webb, the team can unload for some quality prospects to a contender come July. The Tigers and Yankees won big on this deal and the Diamondbacks took on a whole lot of unnecessary risk (and some salary), to which I call them the unequivocal losers of the deal.
Tigers:
- SP Max Scherzer
- RP Daniel Schlereth
- RP Phil Coke
- CF Austin Jackson
- CF Curtis Granderson
- SP Edwin Jackson
- SP Ian Kennedy
The Tigers
The Tigers by far got the best end of this deal. Seeking to shed payroll, fill in some bullpen holes, and acquire cheap, young talent, the Tigers traded away one of the games best value players (Granderson) who plays a mean CF in terms of both offense and defense, in addition to a soon-to-be 27 year old hard-throwing right-handed SP (Jackson) who over-performed last year and generally has below average, but improving control, no strikeout talent and two years left until he reaches free agency. In exchange, the Tigers received four quality players and met each of their goals. The prize of the Tigers' acquisition was Max Scherzer, a soon-to-be 26 year old, hard-throwing right-handed SP (Scherzer) with high strikeout talent, above-average control and three, possibly four, more years of team control before he becomes arbitration eligible. If Scherzer does not qualify for super-two status next offseason, the Tigers will end up paying a better-than-Jackson SP less than $1 million, while Jackson probably makes at least $10 million over that same time frame. In addition to Scherzer, the Tigers also acquired two relievers: Phil Coke, a solid and above average RP who limited the walks and struck out more batters than the league average while playing in the AL East last year, from the Yankees and Daniel Schlereth, a closer-of-the-future kind of RP with great stuff and questionable control, from the Diamondbacks. Considering that Lyons and Rodney are free agents, this gives the team more leverage when dealing with Brandon Lyon and a viable set of cheap, late-inning relievers for the Tigers. The Tigers also got Austin Jackson, one of the Yankee's top prospects, who profiles as a league-average (or better) hitting CF with great speed and range to replace Granderson. At just 22 years old, Jackson has a lot of upside and 6 years of major league control left to his name.
Conclusion: The Tigers accomplished everyone of their team's goals with this trade. They shed payroll, replaced semi-expensive players with cheap replacements, filled bullpen holes and upgraded their starting rotation.
The Yankees
The Yankees also made out big with this trade. With Johnny Damon departing to free agency and 4th OFs Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner and not-quite-ready CF prospect Austin Jackson left to fill both center and left fields, the Yankees were in search of one, if not two, outfielders. Although you can never discount the Yankees getting involved in the Matt Holliday/Jason Bay sweepstakes, this helps the team fill up centerfield at a great value and it gives the team a lot more negotiating leverage against Scott Boras and his clients (Damon, Holliday). Granderson is without a doubt an all around upgrade over the aging and expensive Damon and if the Yankees can clobber everyone on their way to a world series title with Damon in left and Cabrera/Gardner, I see no reason why they can't do it with Granderson in center and Cabrera/Gardner in left. With Granderson, the Yankees acquired a not-cheap, but not-expensive player with some of the best all around tools in the game (walks, hits for power, quality range, average arm) and probably have plenty of money left over -- especially if they let Damon walk -- to make another big free agency splash while keeping the payroll under the 2008 mark. And what did it cost them? None of their core young talent (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Dunn, or Jesus Montero). Just a slightly above average, but still useful reliever (Phil Coke) and a starting pitcher with no room on the roster and more hype than true talent (Ian Kennedy, aka "the next Greg Maddux").
Conclusion: The Yankees got what they needed -- a quality outfielder and leverage in the free agency market -- at a great value in terms of both $ cost and players traded, so they are sure to be great for online betting.
The Diamondbacks
Oh boy, where to begin. The Diamondbacks got ripped off. They traded away a young, cheap ace pitcher and high talent potential closer of the future and bought high on a hard-throwing (but improving) SP (Jackson) who over-performed last season and has at least two less years of team control to his name in addition to a brand name minor leaguer with limited "success" at any level of play since 2007. For a guy who is supposed to be "the next Greg Maddux, he needs to start limiting the walks (his career major-league equivalent BB/9 is 3.95). Kennedy is still relatively young (soon-to-be 26) and has been getting better at the strikeouts in AAA, but he's entering his "prime years" and has yet to show any significant major league success.
Conclusion: Kennedy may provide the Diamondbacks with a quality arm, but the risk inherent in him putting it all together (in addition to the probable regression from Jackson, a pitcher who outperformed his peripherals last year and also has a four year trend of increasing FB tendencies) makes trading away a cheap stud like Scherzer and high ceiling reliever like Schlereth an unwise gamble.
____
All in all, it's not like anyone expected the Diamondbacks to contend in 2010 anyways. Perhaps the team, realizing this, decided to take the long-term risk with Kennedy (who the Yankees had no room for), while gaining another arm (Jackson), who, in addition to Webb, the team can unload for some quality prospects to a contender come July. The Tigers and Yankees won big on this deal and the Diamondbacks took on a whole lot of unnecessary risk (and some salary), to which I call them the unequivocal losers of the deal.
