The Luckiest Fly Ball Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw

If you had Clayton Kershaw on your team, I'm sure you were pleasantly surprised. You probably didn't have to pay all that much or draft Kershaw very high to get a top 25 pitcher. But now that Kershaw has broke out, you're going to have to be competing for Kershaw with every member of your league as opposed to maybe just 2 or 3 in last years draft.

But let me point out some facts to you that I hope will affect your position and thinking of the young Dodger.

Last year, Kershaw was an extreme fly ball pitcher. 41.6% of Kershaw's hit pitches were fly balls. This made Kershaw the 15th worst in all of the MLB. However, not many of those fly balls went out for home runs. Kershaw had the best home run per fly ball percentage. Only 4.1% of Kershaw's fly balls went for home runs. Last year, only thee players had a HR/FB% under 5.0- the other two were Chris Carpenter and Zach Greinke.

So what does this all mean you ask? Well, first of all, it means Kershaw was really lucky last year that he didn't give up more home runs. On average, about 11.5% of all fly balls (from both a hitter that hits a lot of fly balls and pitchers that gives up a lot of fly balls) go for home runs. So the fact that Kershaw's hit fly balls was WAY under the average, means he got really lucky to have his under 3.00 ERA.

This also gives you an indicator of how Kershaw will perform next year. Sure, it's possible that Kershaw gets lucky again, but I wouldn't count on it. The better bet is that Kershaw's HR/FB will normalize and he'll give up more than 7 HRs. With Kershaw giving up more home runs, that means his ERA will spike as well. Even Gavin Floyd two years ago (who gave up 30 HRs but A LOT of them being single home runs. In fact, I remember a game where Floyd gave up four home run- all of them being solo homers) had a low three ERA. And comparing Kershaw to Floyd is generous. There's no guarantee that Kershaw's home runs will be solo- in fact- there's a good chance they won't be.

Now a fly ball pitcher could be acceptable if had an amazing outfield defense like Seattle last year. But Kershaw does not. Last year, the only Dodger outfielder that produced positive defense was Matt Kemp (3.2 UZR/150, 2.5 RF/9)- and just barely. Both both Manny (-15.4 UZR/150, 2.6 RF/9) and Andre Either (-17.7 UZR/150, 1.9 RF/9) are not good defenders by any stretch of the imagination.

The one saving grace is that Kershaw gets to play the vast majority his games in Dodger Stadium (ranked 25th last year in HR given up), PETCO (29th), and AT&T Park (19th). The average Chase Field (14th) isn't that bad either. The only concern is when Kershaw pitches at Coors (9th)- but that's minimal compared to everywhere else he pitches.

The parks Kershaw will mostly pitch in will absolutely help keep his HR totals low. However, Kershaw absolutely will not have an ERA under 3.00 next year and he absolutely will give up more HRs next year because of his extreme fly ball tendencies. Kershaw will still be good next year (he increased his K/9 from 8.36 in 2008 to 9.74 in '09)- and he still has the Dodgers line up so he's always good in line to get wins. But Kershaw's high propensity to leave guys on base (4.79 BB/9 which was a slight increase from '08) and high propensity to give up fly balls (which means more home runs) means Kershaw's WHIP and ERA will increase next year as well.

So just keep this in mind if you decide to draft Kershaw in your upcoming draft.