According to CHONE projections, here is what the 2010 White Sox starting line up defense looks like per 150 games:
C-A.J. Pierzynski (-4 runs)
1B-Konerko (+0 runs)
2B-Gordon Beckham (+2 runs)
SS-Alexei Ramirez (-2 runs)
3B-Mark Teahen (-7 run)
LF-Carlos Quentin (-3 runs)
CF-Juan Pierre (+4 runs)
RF-Alex Rios (+0 runs)
That's a -10 run defense at the starting lines; meaning the Sox defense will lose 1 game per every 150 just based on their defense. That's an upgrade over last season, where their starting 9 posted a collective fielding value of -45.5 runs (largely thanks to the departure of Jermaine Dye)
Local Blogs We're Reading
National Blogs We're Reading
Finding Stats
Faceball
That pitch accounted for 15% of Jimmy Rollin's OBP for 2006
Ump Bump
Is my .320 batting average giving you a boner?
Did You Know...
That Darren Erstad was a punter in college??
Little Known Fact
John Kruk struck out in this AB
The Great Runs Expectancy Chart
Statistically speaking, sacrifice bunts are counter-productive
Pete Rose Baseball
Best signature ever
The Most Ironic Book Ever Written
Written by none other than Joe Morgan
8 comments:
It's not like CHONE is ever really reliable on his predictions....
Alexei won't have negative defense next year, Rios will actually have positive defense next year, and I think he's being generous with Quentin and Konerko.
But the departure of J.D. absolutely helps things and Rios had an uncharacteristically awful UZR/150 last and there's no reason to assume that his defense can't at least bounce back to his season low (which is still about a +9.0 UZR/150)- and that will equate to more than +0 runs
I do agree that CHONE is a bit bullish on Rios, but the rest seems just fine. Alexei isn't a very good defender. He's got poor range, but a good arm.
But whats wrong with CHONE? I think they do a good job
Alexei took a huge jump forward having positive defense, why would he jump back to being negative? His floor is about a +2.0 UZR/150
And I bet if you did a statistical study of CHONE's projections versus how the player actually performed, esp. versus Bill James' projections, you would find that CHONE sucks
The CHONE sucks argument is an unwarranted assumption. Go do the research before you try and comment about what hypothetical results would be. You have no basis for that argument.
Also, who is to say Alexei "took a step forward"?? Sample size Sample size Sample size. One year of UZR data is not reliable. You need to use 3 years+ of data to get an accurate picture of true talent to reduce all the noise
I have done the research. I'm not saying CHONE sucks out of the blue, I'm saying he sucks because after looking and relying upon his projections, they turn out to be absolutely false and further proof of this would be if a statistical study was done.
If there's no sample size to determine that Alexei took a step forward then who's to say there's any data whatsoever to make any sort of determination about how Alexei's defense will be in 2010.
If there's not enough data to say he didn't take a step forward, then there's no proof for you to say Alexei is a bad defender.
You can't just resolve an ambiguity in data in your favor just because the outcome you dont like is not more likely than the one you do like.
ALso, CHONE is actually a very good system. On par with BP's success rate:
-http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564
-http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=569
-http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/so-how-did-tht-projections-do/
-http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/evaluating_the_2008_forecasting_systems/#15
So yes, the studies have been done and they say you're wrong.
To quote Fangraphs creator David Appelman:
"CHONE is actually pretty realistic when it comes to real world run environments so, I don’t believe the projections are low across the board.
CHONE also does an excellent if not the best job at predicting rate stats and really no one is telling you to blindly follow any projections. Use them as a guide. You could probably win using any projection system, they’re all within a similar margin of error. This is why we don’t just provide one projection system."
Comparing CHONE to BP hurts your argument even more because I paid for BP and it was awful! Biggest waste of 20 bucks
Post a Comment