EDITOR’S NOTE: Cubsfan4evr1's opinion was not originally in this post but it is currently in it now. I am still waiting on The 'Bright' One's opinion (although I might be waiting for a while)
This is a 14 team, PPR, auction league. The rosters look like this: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF, 6 BN.
SEXY REXY
My goal in the draft was to get a top 3 RB, a top 5 QB, two top 15 WR, a one dollar TE, K, and DEF, and two middle of the pack guys for my RB and flex with a bunch of scrubs and nothings and dollar bids for my bench. Like all my drafts, I have a sheet of how much I wanted to spend per position. But after a half an hour into the draft, after I had not picked up anybody yet, and after the one RB left that I wanted- Philly’s LeSean McCoy- went for WAY too much money (DME and I got into a bidding war where he paid $68 for McCoy and as much as I love McCoy and needed a #1 RB there was in way in hell I was going to spend at least $69 on him, McCoy ended up being the second highest paid player in the draft behind AD). At that point I literally crumpled up my draft prep sheet and threw it out the window (OK, I didn’t throw it out the window but I did throw it behind me and just started paying for talent and value as opposed to my original plan). While I always recommend having a plan going into an auction drafts, this is just a perfect example of how you need to do your homework in order to be able to adapt to your draft.
The running backs I did end up getting were Michael Turner ($51) and Matt Forte ($33). Before I got these two guys I had no backs and Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendenhall, Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, and now LeSean McCoy were all off the board. I had both Forte and Turner in my top ten- not necessarily because I think they will end up being top guys but because I think they come with significantly less risk that about half the guys mentioned in the previous sentence. My quarterback, and actually my first pick in this draft was Tom Brady ($23). I think this was the best value in the draft and I have no idea how Brady came to me for this low. Brady came cheaper than both Matt Ryan ($26) and Philip Rivers ($28). I originally allocated $33 for a quarterback and I was targeting my man crush Rivers but I have Brady higher on my draft board and come on, for that price, how could I pass it up? My main wide receivers are Mike Wallace ($34) and Santonio Holmes ($21). I never really had a plan for my wide outs but I love Wallace and I don’t care that this is a PPR league. I was originally targeting Mario Manningham as my second receiver but when Santonio Holmes got thrown out there were plenty of other teams who still needed a second wide out, I knew people liked Manningham, I didn’t want to get into another bidding war and I felt like $21 was a really good price for Holmes. Manningham ended up going for $18 but what are you going to do. My other main starters are Reggie Bush ($8) and Ryan Grant ($16). I really like Bush and I think he’ll be this year’s Darren McFadden (this is based off of nothing but a gut feeling) and I like Grant. Truthfully, I drafted Grant before I realized Green Bay thought he was herpes but this guy had been too good in the league for too long that I refuse he won’t exceed the sixteen bucks I paid for him.
I spent most of my money at this point and that’s fine with me. Out of the 14 teams in this league only four had no money left over (three being GOI authors and one of them was not Cubsfan) and I prefer to use up all my money- that means I spent efficiently. My view of the bench is that you don’t need them until a bye- and even then chances are there’s a better guy that week to play on the waiver wire than the guy on your team. For me, I probably should have cared because three out of my four running backs (Forte, Turner, and Grant) and one of my receivers (Holmes) have a bye on Wee8 but whatever. I’ll lose one week and win every other. The rest of my team that I drafted was Colt McCoy ($2), Stevan Ridley ($1), Randy Moss ($1), Denario Alexander ($1), Alex Hendry ($1), and San Diego Defense ($1). I have already drooped Ridley, Moss, and Alexander for Isaac Redman, Greg Little, and Mark Clayton. The depth for wide receiver was barren and all the trendy sleepers like Emmanuel Sanders and Deion Branch went for more than a dollar because the rest of the league was dumb and didn’t spend their money at the front end of their draft like you should. That’s fine with me. I’ll sacrifice getting good starters than getting trendy sleepers.
Lastly, we get to my tight ends. I drafted Aaron Hernandez ($6) and Dustin Keller ($1). My philosophy was that I was only going to spend a dollar on a TE. I threw out my boy Rob Gronkowski early hoping no one else liked him. A team bid two dollars in him and I stupidly didn’t go three. In hindsight I really should have. Two hours later Aaron Hernandez got thrown out and even though I like Gronk better I started bidding up Hernandez just to price enforce. I also stupidly didn’t realize how little money my price opponent had. The max amount he could have spend was five dollars so once I went six I was stuck with him because he wasn’t able to bid seven. This was my biggest mistake of the draft because after this I was relegated to one dollar players. If I didn’t spend that much on a TE like I wanted maybe I could have gotten my wide out sleepers like Sanders and Branch. Oh well. C’est Le Vie. I still am super pumped at the way my team turned out and if my TE and bench guys are the worst part of my team then so be it.
Here are a few notes I have on this draft as a whole:
- Quarterbacks went severely undervalued. I have no idea why considering this is a 14 team league where having a quarterback is extremely important. Friend-of-the-site D.B. originally bought Matt Ryan early and then spent $21 on Matt Schaub just because he saw Schaub for $20 and couldn’t let that stand. My friend Ted, another person I was drafting with, bought Tony Romo ($14), Kevin Kolb ($7), and Ben Roethlisberger ($17) just because the prices were too good. This means that the top 10 quarterbacks are on eight teams.
- The one quarterback that apparently everyone wanted was Josh Freeman as two owners got in a bidding war for him. He went for $16. One less than Peyton Manning. Two dollars more than Tony Romo.
- Even though I wanted McCoy, the fact that he went for $68, the second highest drafted player, was the worst value in the draft. I’m super pumped I didn’t end up getting him.
- Arian Foster went for $58 and was the second person drafted behind Michael Vick. I was so dumb. I knew he would be a great value and I was willing to spend $65+ on him yet I have no idea why I didn’t. Even knowing what I know now I think that’s the best value in the draft. (Well, behind Tom Brady).
- One team spent $71 on Adrian Peterson and $63 on Jamaal Charles. I’m sure he spent the rest of the draft bored out of his mind. His QB is Sam Bradford and TE is Gronk . That’s a damn fine core. Now his wide receivers are pretty bad (Danny Amendola, Mike Thomas, Davone Bess, Jacoby Jones, and AJ Green) but with Peterson and Charles he might win every week. He also drafted James Starks. Drafting two top 3 running backs is not a strategy I recommend or would ever do, but it’s very interesting.
CUBSFAN4EVR1
Going into the Game of Inches fantasy football draft I had a strategy that I was going to follow to the T; I thought I was going to be golden. It was the same strategy I used last year which would have been dominating if two of my key players would have played the entire season and I didn’t have a really bad week in the first week of the playoffs, which was just really bad luck. So I believed in this strategy as long as I could follow it………………………………
My original plan was to draft a top 5 running back, two mid tier wide receivers (from my target list), two mid tier running backs, and an average quarterback. As you will learn I did not follow this strategy at all and altered my strategy completely during the draft that TBO could see from the frustration on my face. I was not going to give into the over valuing of these elite RB though!
My plan was to draft a marquee running back to anchor my team. My first choice was Jamaal Charles who I think is going to have a monster season and could be the number one running back at the end of the season. I was willing to pay $60 for Charles and he went for $63. I was also willing to pay $60 for Rice and he went for $65. Those were the only top two running backs from the top tier that I liked enough to pay the big bucks for. I obviously like Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster, but did not want to pay $72 for Adrian Peterson.
After missing out on Rice and Charles and passing on the rest of the elite running backs I was targeting LeSean McCoy who is a great PPR player, but so was everyone for that reason. I was hoping to get him for under $40 but there was a bidding war for him and he ended up going at a ridiculous $68. That is more than Rice and as much as Charles who are both better. So I stopped bidding around 40 and turned my attention to Shonn Green who I actually won for won and over paid for at 37 dollar in a PPR league. He doesn’t catch at all, but I needed a good running back, and most of the good ones were going off the board in a hurry at values I didn’t want to pay. Another guy I wanted was LeGarrette Blount but he went for $31 which I thought was way too high in a PPR league. I bought Felix Jones at $24 who is a good PPR player and in a good offense. I also took a gamble on Ingram for $13 who could pay off. My goal was to buy a top RB in the 50 dollar range, but unfortunately this did not happen. Instead I ended up getting value running backs to fit PPR leagues such as Felix Jones, Ingram, and settling on Green if I needed a good running back. If this wasn’t a PPR league LeGarrette Blount is someone I would have paid more for.
Arian Foster ended up only going for $58 so I don’t know what I was thinking, or everyone else was for that matter, and I should have bid up to $60. He wasn’t part of my strategy because I thought he was going to be too expensive, but he turned out to be less that Ray Rice and Jamal Charles which is crazy!
I don’t like paying for a top wide receiver; instead I like to find the value wide receivers. I was targeting Miles Austin who I was willing to pay $34 for and he went for $36 to TBO. If I lost out on Austin I settled for two wide receivers I like a lot in Anquan Boldin for a great price of 20 bucks and Brandon Marshall for 23. I think both will have great seasons and be good PPR players. If you don’t want to pay the price for Roddy White or Andre Johnson, these are two great alternatives who may not be as good, but will be for half the price.
I was going to target a average quarterback like Romo, Freeman, Ryan, but with my strategy changing in the middle of the draft and having more money because I didn’t buy an elite running back I decided to buy a top quarterback. Out of all of the top quarterbacks I really like Phillip Rivers this year so I invested $28 for him to anchor my team. A great QB can carry your team in a deep 14 team league like this; even though Romo went for a great value at 14 dollars and Freeman at 16 dollars.
Typically I don’t invest in defense or kickers, but I had extra money to burn so I may as well buy the Pittsburgh Steelers defense for $4. I also bought Nate Kaeding for $3. I think Jared Cook, a tight end for the Titans, will have a big year so I got him for $5. The biggest regret was not bidding more for Daniel Thomas who is in the doghouse now, but I think will have a good season. Miami loves to run the ball and Reggie Bush can’t stay healthy.
With me changing my strategy on the fly I can’t say I love my team not having any elite players besides Phillip Rivers, but I think I have a solid team with a lot of potential so I like my chances.
DAVID “MVP” ECKSTEIN
My team largely consists of players my two fantasy football expert friends recommended that did not seem overpriced (LeSean McCoy excepted), and players whose name I recognized from the TV show The League. I'd love to give more analysis than that, but there really was none. If I beat Sexy Rexy this year, I'll never let him live it down.
(EDITOR’S NOTE: DME is lucky in the sense that he is fully entrenched in the fantasy community because of fantasy baseball that he magically happen to come across fantasy football experts, like those from KFFL, who gave him a draft cheat sheet. And no way we experts at GOI were going to give him any advice. Also, while I kind of do like the player’s on DME’s team (McCoy, Kenny Britt, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Tolbert). He did not actually draft players based on The League although his team’s name, The Fear Boners, is from the show. Also, he is not going to beat Sexy Rexy.)
Showing posts with label David "MVP" Eckstein. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David "MVP" Eckstein. Show all posts
DME Ate His Words
The Hardball Times' Jeffrey Gross (aka David "MVP" Eckstein) acts like a good sport and makes good on his bet to Sexy Rexy.
David MVP Eckstein Joins The Hardball Times
Starting this Friday, I will be joining The Hardball Times Fantasy lineup and writing a weekly Waiver Wire column for THT which will focus on American League players.
I will still continue to be a part of Game Of Inches, but you can now catch me in another place online as well.
I will still continue to be a part of Game Of Inches, but you can now catch me in another place online as well.
David MVP Eckstein: Sportswriter
As of now, I've tentatively accepted a writing position for the sports section of DeKalb's Northern Star newspaper. I plan to continue my amazing blog contributions (and finally start watching football/basketball...sigh).
DME's Fantasy Baseball Teams For 2010
This year, I've limited myself to five leagues. I really only plan on paying attention to three of them, my money leagues. These are my rosters as they stand before the season opener Sunday:
David MVP Eckstein -- Fantasyland 2 -- 12 man, 23 player, 5x5 std. roto auction:
C - Ryan Doumit ($1)
1B - Joey Votto ($28)
2B - Gordon Beckham ($15)
SS - Hanley Ramirez ($51)
3B - David Wright ($38)
OF - Grady Sizemore ($18)
OF - Alex Rios ($7)
OF - Franklin Gutierrez ($1)
DH - Chris Davis ($1)
SP - Josh Beckett ($18)
SP - Matt Cain ($19)
SP - Cole Hamels ($16)
RP - Heath Bell ($9)
RP - Jose Valverde ($7)
P - Colby Lewis ($1)
P - Phil Hughes ($1)
P - Bobby Jenks ($7)
P - Ricky Nolasco ($17)
BN - Nolan Reimold ($1)
BN - Martin Prado ($1)
BN - Franklin Morales ($1)
BN - Ryan Madson ($1)
BN - Justin Masterson ($1)
Comments: If you couldn't tell from the roster, I am attempting Stars & Scrubs this year. I definitely overspent too early on Hanley ($51), Wright ($38) and Votto ($28). I sent my entire budget in 13 players and watched depressingly as guys like Jay Bruce went for $3 in the final few picks. Next year, I'll save a few bucks for the end of the draft. My team is a little light on BA/SB's, but I think my team turned out quite well, all considered. If Nolan Reimold stays healthy, I think he is primed for a big season. I thought I was getting a great deal on elite closers for under $10 early on, but for some reason all of the closers went for around $5 in the league. Strange. I think this team's strong point is the pitching staff, though I will concede SexyRexy's is stronger thanks to his patient approach and aggressive bid war for King Felix.
David MVP Eckstein -- Mangolicious -- 12 man, 23 player, 5x5 std. draft league
C - Ryan Doumit
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - David Wright
OF - Nelson Cruz
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
DH - Carlos Quentin
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Cole Hamels
SP - Ricky Nolasco
RP - Billy Wagner
RP - Jose Valverde
P - John Lackey
P - Jason Frasor
P - Stephen Strausberg
P - Colby Lewis
BN - Chris Davis
BN - Brandon Lyon
BN - Brandon Webb
BN - Derek Lowe
BN - Drew Stubbs
Comments: You might notice a lot of overlap between this team and my auction team. I am expecting big things from my outfield this year, such as a .282/30/20 season from Nelson Cruz and a .278/35/10 season from Jay Bruce, but there is definitely some risk there. I by far have the best infield in the league, thanks to what used to be strong pitching depth. In a period of 24 hours, my entire roster changed. I traded away brand name studs like Jon Lester for "riskier" players like Nolasco, while upgrading other positions, while trading away seven closers to upgrade three. My team is a little light on strikeouts and steals at the moment, but I should be golden everywhere else. My big regret on the draft is taking Brandon Webb over Brett Anderson. At the time, my team had much more depth and I felt I could take a risk with Webb as the 120th overall pick. In hindsight, I could use another reliable starter, as Strausberg probably won't pitch in the majors till June. All in all, I love this team.
Jizz In My Pence -- Alcoholics '10 -- 10 man, 24 player, 5x5 std. draft league
C - Kurt Suzuki
1B - Adam Dunn
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Hanley Ramirez
3B - Gordon Beckham
MI - Troy Tulowitzky
CI - Chris Davis
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
DH - Nyger Morgan
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Dan Haren
SP - Tommy Hanson
RP - Mike Gonzalez
RP - Billy Wagner
P - Josh Johnson
P - Ricky Nolasco
P - Max Scherzer
P - Bobby Jenks
BN - Franklin Moralez
BN - Alfonso Soriano
BN - Geovany Soto
BN - Martin Prado
Comments: I had the #2 pick overall in the league; there was no reason, even in a ten team league, that I should have been able to get both Hanley and Tulo. I have a gut feeling that the majority of the players in this league (I joined a random public league) are "amateurs" (not that I consider myself an expert). As strong as I think my offense is, it is my pitching staff that truly shines. I could use a little more batting average on my team, but if Soriano or Soto pans out with a strong comeback season, I'll have a valuable trade chip on my hands. I expect to dominate the league with this team, which is almost criminally amazing -- even for a 10-team league.
David MVP Eckstein -- Fantasyland 2 -- 12 man, 23 player, 5x5 std. roto auction:
C - Ryan Doumit ($1)
1B - Joey Votto ($28)
2B - Gordon Beckham ($15)
SS - Hanley Ramirez ($51)
3B - David Wright ($38)
OF - Grady Sizemore ($18)
OF - Alex Rios ($7)
OF - Franklin Gutierrez ($1)
DH - Chris Davis ($1)
SP - Josh Beckett ($18)
SP - Matt Cain ($19)
SP - Cole Hamels ($16)
RP - Heath Bell ($9)
RP - Jose Valverde ($7)
P - Colby Lewis ($1)
P - Phil Hughes ($1)
P - Bobby Jenks ($7)
P - Ricky Nolasco ($17)
BN - Nolan Reimold ($1)
BN - Martin Prado ($1)
BN - Franklin Morales ($1)
BN - Ryan Madson ($1)
BN - Justin Masterson ($1)
Comments: If you couldn't tell from the roster, I am attempting Stars & Scrubs this year. I definitely overspent too early on Hanley ($51), Wright ($38) and Votto ($28). I sent my entire budget in 13 players and watched depressingly as guys like Jay Bruce went for $3 in the final few picks. Next year, I'll save a few bucks for the end of the draft. My team is a little light on BA/SB's, but I think my team turned out quite well, all considered. If Nolan Reimold stays healthy, I think he is primed for a big season. I thought I was getting a great deal on elite closers for under $10 early on, but for some reason all of the closers went for around $5 in the league. Strange. I think this team's strong point is the pitching staff, though I will concede SexyRexy's is stronger thanks to his patient approach and aggressive bid war for King Felix.
David MVP Eckstein -- Mangolicious -- 12 man, 23 player, 5x5 std. draft league
C - Ryan Doumit
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - David Wright
OF - Nelson Cruz
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
DH - Carlos Quentin
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Cole Hamels
SP - Ricky Nolasco
RP - Billy Wagner
RP - Jose Valverde
P - John Lackey
P - Jason Frasor
P - Stephen Strausberg
P - Colby Lewis
BN - Chris Davis
BN - Brandon Lyon
BN - Brandon Webb
BN - Derek Lowe
BN - Drew Stubbs
Comments: You might notice a lot of overlap between this team and my auction team. I am expecting big things from my outfield this year, such as a .282/30/20 season from Nelson Cruz and a .278/35/10 season from Jay Bruce, but there is definitely some risk there. I by far have the best infield in the league, thanks to what used to be strong pitching depth. In a period of 24 hours, my entire roster changed. I traded away brand name studs like Jon Lester for "riskier" players like Nolasco, while upgrading other positions, while trading away seven closers to upgrade three. My team is a little light on strikeouts and steals at the moment, but I should be golden everywhere else. My big regret on the draft is taking Brandon Webb over Brett Anderson. At the time, my team had much more depth and I felt I could take a risk with Webb as the 120th overall pick. In hindsight, I could use another reliable starter, as Strausberg probably won't pitch in the majors till June. All in all, I love this team.
Jizz In My Pence -- Alcoholics '10 -- 10 man, 24 player, 5x5 std. draft league
C - Kurt Suzuki
1B - Adam Dunn
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Hanley Ramirez
3B - Gordon Beckham
MI - Troy Tulowitzky
CI - Chris Davis
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
DH - Nyger Morgan
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Dan Haren
SP - Tommy Hanson
RP - Mike Gonzalez
RP - Billy Wagner
P - Josh Johnson
P - Ricky Nolasco
P - Max Scherzer
P - Bobby Jenks
BN - Franklin Moralez
BN - Alfonso Soriano
BN - Geovany Soto
BN - Martin Prado
Comments: I had the #2 pick overall in the league; there was no reason, even in a ten team league, that I should have been able to get both Hanley and Tulo. I have a gut feeling that the majority of the players in this league (I joined a random public league) are "amateurs" (not that I consider myself an expert). As strong as I think my offense is, it is my pitching staff that truly shines. I could use a little more batting average on my team, but if Soriano or Soto pans out with a strong comeback season, I'll have a valuable trade chip on my hands. I expect to dominate the league with this team, which is almost criminally amazing -- even for a 10-team league.
David "MVP" Eckstein destroys Chris Rongey
*Audio of DME royally destroying WSCR The Score 670 weekend host Chris Rongey* (call starts 56 seconds into the audio)
Chris Rongey does not believe in numbers. See baseball players are judged and payed based on what people see with their eyes. Because everyone knows that numbers are "drastically misleading". They are so misleading that life would be better off without them. Who needs medicine, engineering, electricity, motors, electromagnetic telecommunication, science in general for that matter. The day people started keeping data and formulating statistics in sports, is the day athletic competition died. I dont need to see numbers to know David Eckstein is the MVP, in all our hearts!
Steve Phillips got fired from ESPN for making the exact same blind comments that his "eyes" don't always agree with the "numbers". In fact, I wrote an entire post about Phillips theory of judging players based on his eyes, oh and Phillips loves rhythm too. I know everyone thinks he got fired for tapping Miss Piggy, but I chose to believe it was for being a complete and utter moron.
Nothing would make me happier if this Chris Rongey character got fired and had to go work in Wyoming or somewhere that doesn't actually have sports. I know he probably has a family, but refuting the reliability of numbers in favor of your own cognitive perception is moronic. If he could find numbers to back up his own cognitive perception then we can talk, but just throwing out random outdated beliefs does not make you right in the least.
Some memorable quotes from the conversation in the mp3 file.
Before putting us all to bed...tell us what your point isDME's first comment was that batting average is a bad way to evaluate the White Sox offense. I thought this point was fairly clear, so why does Rongey have to twice ask for the point when it was given in the first 10 seconds of the conversation. Oh, and demeaning the caller by calling him boring, stupid, and wrong is probably not the best way to make yourself seem smart. Try some facts besides what your "eyes" see
I dont care what your looking at. You saw him play and you're suggesting that Jayson Nix is as good a baseball player as Alex Rios.Why so against numbers Chris Rongey? Twice he berated DME for trying to present numbers. It would have been a waste of time anyway. Considering Matthew Berry thinks FIP is fly balls in play, what are the odds Rongey knows what iso, babip, wOBA, or UZR are. I would say about zero cause those things involve numbers. If Rongey ever goes blind, the universe will cease to exist I suppose.
Rios was an all-star a couple of times. I'm pretty sure he's made his case as to how good he is...he has a track record. He has proven over his career he can do it. Jayson Nix has yet to do it.You know, Ted Williams was an all-star once or twice in his career. Now his head is being frozen in a basement somewhere in case they start cloning people some day. Once being an all-star doesnt make you currently good, nor does it even mean you were once good at baseball(see lance carter, tom gorzalleny, et al.) Do you know guys who didnt have a track record just a few years ago? Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Kemp. 2 years ago all of them were definitely worse than Alex Rios. Alex Rios is an all-star!
I really think numbers can dramatically lie to you. I really think that...I dont care what your looking at. You can dissect all the numbers you want, but Jayson Nix is not a better ball player than Alex RiosWow! Really? Really? Like you're being serious. Numbers lie. You are able to sorts through million of individual plays that occur in every baseball game throughout the entire history of baseball with your brain? If you can do that, then you picked the wrong profession my friend. That type of skill can make you some serious money out there. But maybe numbers do lie sometimes. Like you are soooooo entertaining that i think you make $300,000 dollars a year for being so awesomely entertaining, based on what my ear "hear", but in reality you only make $30,000 a year. Wow, way off on that one. Oops
You're really into sabermetrics aren't you? We don't care about your stupid blog.Dude! You forgot to mention that we live in our mother's basements. No, actually we're fairly accomplished law and med students who discuss sports as a hobby not as our lives purpose. Oh, and dude went to Illinois State University. My old druggy roommate who got expelled for selling dope still got into Indiana. How dumb do you have to be. It was probably a tuition thing.
1) Jason Varitek was an "allstar" last year. Bad argument w/ regards to Rios
2) Carlos Quentin's 2007 on the D-backs: .214/.298/.349 in 263 PA
Jayson Nix 2009: .224/.308/.408 in 290 PA
3) "You're into sabermetrics, aren't you" isn't an argument as to why DME is wrong
Corey Hart is no Derek jeter
David "MVP" Eckstein thinks a 10 paragraphs soliloquy belongs in the comments section, I do not. (DME here, editing TBO's post w/o his permission -- this is actually an article I posted May 29, 2009 that no one probably read. Thus, the stats may be dated...)
In 2007, I drafted Corey Hart and he paid off big time. With a .295 AVG, 24 HR and 23 SB (not to mention the 86 R/81 RBI), Hart entered the 2008 season high on my list of guys to target. Hart, however, would prove to me over the course of last season that he is not a guy with 30/30 potential (he only had 505 AB in 2007), but rather a player with poor basic skills to go with raw talent.
Corey Hart has never been a batter with a good eye. His career BB% is a below average 6.1%, but since his first full major league season, he has seen his already poor pitch recognition erode further. Last season, Hart posted a laughable 4.2 BB%, 15th worst among the 213 players who had a minimum of 400 PA's. This season, Hart has a deceptively "high" 8.8%, largely due to the 13 walks he drew in the month of April (Hart has only drawn double digit walks in a month of play one other time in his entire career -- 14 in June 1007). Since May 1, Hart has walked at a 5.2% clip.
Hart's power has also been in the decline since his first full season -- or perhaps it merely spiked in 2007. Hart's 2007 ISO (.244) is almost a full .100 points higher than this season's rate (.150). In 2007, he hit a HR every 21.1 ABs. In 2008, he hit a jack every 30.6 ABs. This season, Hart's home run power has regressed even further, as his HR rate has fallen to one per 34.4 ABs.
The sheer power of Corey Hart isn't the problem (his career home run distance average is over 400 FT, 418.5 FT this season), but rather the ability to make quality contact with pitches. With a swing% above the major league average and contact rate almost 10% below the league average, Corey Hart helps pitchers beat him.
Other aspects that have hurt Corey Hart's game have been decreasing speed (his speed score has gone from 7.6 to 6.2 to 4.5 since his debut), decreasing range (from positive defense to negative), a complete inability to hit sliders (his wSL (run value per 100 sliders) is -4.0 and pitchers have increasing throw sliders to him since 2007) and an increased groundball rate. All of these factors, combined with the waning/deceptively non-existent slugging power collectively conspired to make Hart incredibly overrated. The .380 wOBA player of 2007 set a bar that the .327 and .309 wOBA players of 2008 and 2009 have not and could not live up to.
In 2007, I drafted Corey Hart and he paid off big time. With a .295 AVG, 24 HR and 23 SB (not to mention the 86 R/81 RBI), Hart entered the 2008 season high on my list of guys to target. Hart, however, would prove to me over the course of last season that he is not a guy with 30/30 potential (he only had 505 AB in 2007), but rather a player with poor basic skills to go with raw talent.
Corey Hart has never been a batter with a good eye. His career BB% is a below average 6.1%, but since his first full major league season, he has seen his already poor pitch recognition erode further. Last season, Hart posted a laughable 4.2 BB%, 15th worst among the 213 players who had a minimum of 400 PA's. This season, Hart has a deceptively "high" 8.8%, largely due to the 13 walks he drew in the month of April (Hart has only drawn double digit walks in a month of play one other time in his entire career -- 14 in June 1007). Since May 1, Hart has walked at a 5.2% clip.
Hart's power has also been in the decline since his first full season -- or perhaps it merely spiked in 2007. Hart's 2007 ISO (.244) is almost a full .100 points higher than this season's rate (.150). In 2007, he hit a HR every 21.1 ABs. In 2008, he hit a jack every 30.6 ABs. This season, Hart's home run power has regressed even further, as his HR rate has fallen to one per 34.4 ABs.
The sheer power of Corey Hart isn't the problem (his career home run distance average is over 400 FT, 418.5 FT this season), but rather the ability to make quality contact with pitches. With a swing% above the major league average and contact rate almost 10% below the league average, Corey Hart helps pitchers beat him.
Other aspects that have hurt Corey Hart's game have been decreasing speed (his speed score has gone from 7.6 to 6.2 to 4.5 since his debut), decreasing range (from positive defense to negative), a complete inability to hit sliders (his wSL (run value per 100 sliders) is -4.0 and pitchers have increasing throw sliders to him since 2007) and an increased groundball rate. All of these factors, combined with the waning/deceptively non-existent slugging power collectively conspired to make Hart incredibly overrated. The .380 wOBA player of 2007 set a bar that the .327 and .309 wOBA players of 2008 and 2009 have not and could not live up to.
DME makes his SECOND appearance in the Fantasy Focus Baseball Podcast!
Check out the Fantasy Baseball Podcast for 08/10/09; at the 21:48 mark, Nate again reads (part) of one of my emails. As always, they refused to read the whole email because it is "too long" (the email is posted below; is it really too long compared to my three-page Dan Haren emails?), but at least this time they got where I was from right.
Hey Matthew and Nate,We're just on fire this week. NBC News, ESPN Podcasts, MLBTradeRumors. Everyone's getting in on the Game Of Inches action! Hell, even Eno Sarris of Fangraphs.com has gotten in on the action:
This summer, I work at a liquor store and recently two new wines were released in theme with both the White Sox and Cubs. One is Mark Buehrle's merlot called "Buehrlot" and the other is D Lee's Carbernet called Caberlee. Though neither tastes perfect, it it fair to say that I'm drinking the juice on each player this season, as both have somewhat helped carry me in my deep 15 team mixed league. What do you see as their fantasy values not only going forward, but also come next year? Will Derrek Lee return to his top 100 draft status? Will Mark Buehrle be draftable (finally) in ten team mixed leagues?
Also, why was Raise Your Hands never mentioned in the Bon Jovi trilogy for either Pod Vader or Matthew? Do either of you even like Bon Jovi, because no Jovi lover would ever forsake his legacy by leaving out Mog's jamming theme (Spaceballs reference).
Jeffrey of Chicago, IL
One criticism I have of your piece is that Rios was great last year (worth $25+ million), and that it doesn’t seem his defense was ‘trending’ downwards, it’s just been crap this year. UZR, though a great measure of defense, is not always stable from year to year.
Look at Carlos Gomez’ defensive stats. He can hardly be trending downwards, but he’s gone from 16 UZR/150 to 6 this year. Mark Teixeira had a 9.3 UZR/150 last year and is negative this year. The number oscillates pretty wildly from year to year, even for players widely considered strong defenders.
On the other hand, Rios has been fairly stable on defense, worth around 9 runs defensively in the three years sandwiched between his great debut and his very good last year. I think it’s safe to say that Rios is above-average on defense, and at 28 should be so for another couple of years. 5 years will be pushing it, for sure.
I am the ultimate slumpbuster?
This season, I have done in-depth analysis on three slumping pitchers -- Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander and Randy Johnson. Following each post that I wrote praising patience and better waters ahead, each respective pitcher immediately turned their luck around. Take a look at their pre/post DME blogging splits:
Verlander (5/1):
Pre: 28.0 IP, 1 W, 6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 34 K, 1.54 WHIP
Post: 70.0 IP, 7 W, 1.93 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 84 K, 1.00 WHIP
Beckett (5/4):
Pre: 28.2 IP, 2 W, 7.22 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 31 K, 1.81 WHIP
Post: 62.2 IP, 6 W, 2.15 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 57 K, 1.00 WHIP
Johnson (6/1):
Pre: 52.0 IP, 4 W, 5.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 54 K, 1.62 WHIP
Post: 30.2 IP, 3 W, 2.93 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 21 K, 1.08 WHIP
Also, since I did my early season analysis of Dan Uggla, he's hit .035 points higher in batting average (from .198 to .233) and 11 of his 15 home runs. Uggla's BABIP is still way low (.236) given his 16.5 lD% and career .298 BABIP, so expectations for a .250-.260 BA rebound in the second half are not unreasonable.
Perhaps major leagues team should hire me to blog more.
Verlander (5/1):
Pre: 28.0 IP, 1 W, 6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 34 K, 1.54 WHIP
Post: 70.0 IP, 7 W, 1.93 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 84 K, 1.00 WHIP
Beckett (5/4):
Pre: 28.2 IP, 2 W, 7.22 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 31 K, 1.81 WHIP
Post: 62.2 IP, 6 W, 2.15 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 57 K, 1.00 WHIP
Johnson (6/1):
Pre: 52.0 IP, 4 W, 5.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 54 K, 1.62 WHIP
Post: 30.2 IP, 3 W, 2.93 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 21 K, 1.08 WHIP
Also, since I did my early season analysis of Dan Uggla, he's hit .035 points higher in batting average (from .198 to .233) and 11 of his 15 home runs. Uggla's BABIP is still way low (.236) given his 16.5 lD% and career .298 BABIP, so expectations for a .250-.260 BA rebound in the second half are not unreasonable.
Perhaps major leagues team should hire me to blog more.
DME is back
Hey hey!
So after a week of tanning/sizzling in sunny Florida, I'm back, full force, to continue to troll the baseball world for interesting information. Lots of cool stuff happened while I was gone, but by far the coolest (in my mind) was getting my email read on the ESPN Fantasy Focus podcast.
I sent in an email a few weeks ago regarding Dan Haren and his peripherals as a rebuttal to Berry's irrational hatred of him and constant bashing. While he (Berry) entirely missed my point and selectively misused the extensive information I sent in (or as Berry put it, "the numbers state me"), Nate did do a pretty good job defending my general thesis. I was entirely shocked to find out that Matthew and Nate did not know what FIP was (perhaps because they know FIP under the alternative acronym DIPS) and although I know both The Bright One and Sexy Rexy sent in emails explaining FIP and providing pages 2 of my email (which contained UZR data and the likes), I still wrote a follow up email anyways. I do not know how they did not know (or could not guess) where I was from, even without page two (in which I signed my email as Jeff of Chicago) because I wrote "Go Cubbies" on the first line of the email. So where they came up with "go Hilltops", I'll never know.
Below are both my original email to Fantasy Focus and my follow up email, in case you are interested and find my argument interesting (though you can read 90% of it here, between the post and my comments about the post):
THE ORIGINAL EMAIL:
THE FOLLOW UP EMAIL:
Look for more cool baseball posts in the next few days, though the frequency with which I provide them may decline in the near future.
So after a week of tanning/sizzling in sunny Florida, I'm back, full force, to continue to troll the baseball world for interesting information. Lots of cool stuff happened while I was gone, but by far the coolest (in my mind) was getting my email read on the ESPN Fantasy Focus podcast.
I sent in an email a few weeks ago regarding Dan Haren and his peripherals as a rebuttal to Berry's irrational hatred of him and constant bashing. While he (Berry) entirely missed my point and selectively misused the extensive information I sent in (or as Berry put it, "the numbers state me"), Nate did do a pretty good job defending my general thesis. I was entirely shocked to find out that Matthew and Nate did not know what FIP was (perhaps because they know FIP under the alternative acronym DIPS) and although I know both The Bright One and Sexy Rexy sent in emails explaining FIP and providing pages 2 of my email (which contained UZR data and the likes), I still wrote a follow up email anyways. I do not know how they did not know (or could not guess) where I was from, even without page two (in which I signed my email as Jeff of Chicago) because I wrote "Go Cubbies" on the first line of the email. So where they came up with "go Hilltops", I'll never know.
Below are both my original email to Fantasy Focus and my follow up email, in case you are interested and find my argument interesting (though you can read 90% of it here, between the post and my comments about the post):
THE ORIGINAL EMAIL:
Hey Matt and Nate (go Cubbies!)
Matthew Berry has often stated that he has an extreme dislike of Dan Haren because he "can't pitch in the second half." I know that Haren had a comparatively bad second half last season, but as a Haren owner last season, I did not recall Haren ever being truly terrible in the second half. So I took a look at the numbers:
Dan Haren's First Half:
8 W, 2.72 ERA, 125.2 IP, 112 K (8.0 K/BB), 22 BB (1.58 BB/9), 5.09 K/BB, 10 HR (0.72 HR/9), 98 Hits, 0.96 WHIP
Dan Haren's Second Half:
8 W, 4.18 ERA, 90.1 IP, 94 K (9.4 K/9), 18 BB (1.79 BB/9), 5.22 K/BB, 9 HR (0.90 HR/9), 106 Hits, 1.37 WHIP
Yes, from a fantasy perspective, Haren was worse in 2 categories (ERA, WHIP) after the all-star break, but he also improved another category (Ks) and remained consistent in another (Ws). His ERA/WHIP were still very serviceable; a far cry from horrible by any means.
From a real life perspective, Dan Haren was almost as good in the second half as he was in the first half -- just less lucky. Haren's control improved and while the BBs and HRs per nine regressed a little, Haren's peripherals across the board were solid and consistent. If anything got worse, it was the hits rate per nine -- something that Voros McCracken and the minds at BP proved long ago that a pitcher has little, if any control over (although some pitchers -- mainly strikeout pitchers -- do seem to exert more "control" over hits per nine than others).
In fact, Dan Haren's real life career splits look like this:
1st Half
35 W, 3.23 ERA, 599.1 IP, 488 K (7.3 K/9), 134 BB (2.01 BB/9), 3.64 K/BB, 62 HR (0.93 HR/9), 516 Hits, 1.09 WHIP, 3.59 FIP
2nd Half:
34 W, 4.12 ERA, 476 IP, 402 K (7.6K/9), 108 BB (2.04 BB/9), 3.72 K/BB, 60 HR (1.13 HR/9), 524 Hits, 1.33 WHIP, 3.83 FIP
What does this data tell me? Haren is not a second half fizzle. The difference is FIP (0.24 runs per nine) is marginal. Haren gives up a few more HR/9 in the second half, but thats about it. The hits also increase in the second half, but Haren's been in front of some notoriously terrible defensive lineups in Arizona, so he can hardly be blamed for their fielding failures.
Especially in recent years, Haren has been a premier pitching force. His control is Maddux-like and if it weren't for a terrible offense/defense behind him, he would be a perennial Cy Young winner. I think Matthew Berry needs to apologize. His dislike of Haren is almost as unfounded and irrational as his disdain of Big Fat Bartolo Colon.
Love,
Jeffrey of Chicago
THE FOLLOW UP EMAIL:
Dear Matt and Nate,
I have a follow up to my previous email regarding Dan Haren, FIP and the likes, as I would like to clarify a few details.
1) FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching statistics and is almost identical to DIPS (defense independence pitching stats). It basically removes the luck element from a pitchers game by calculating his strike out, walk and home run rates to determine if a pitcher is over/under performing his results based on the peripherals. xFIP is similar to FIP, but it normalizes home runs per FBs (HR/FB) to 11% (league average). Basically, what I was trying to get at with Dan Haren's FIP data is that he has been getting somewhat consistently unlucky in the ERA department during the second half of his career, which is strange. I dug deeper into the data and found some interesting explanations as to why Dan Haren's ERA is much higher than his FIP (especially in the second half of the season).
Fangraphs has a defensive metric called UZR/150, which calculates a player's (or collectively a team's) defensive ability per 150 games in terms of runs prevention against the replacement level. As always, approx. every 10 runs equals one win in either direction (positive or negative). A team with a positive UZR/150 of 10 runs, therefore, would be worth 1 full win above the league average thanks to its awesome defensive prowess. A team with a 0 UZR/150, on the other hand, would have league average defense. Here are the UZR/150 ratings of each of the teams Dan Haren has played for since joining the Oakland rotation full time in 2005:
Oakland, 2005: 3.4 fielding runs, 9th best in baseball (9/30) -- above average
Oakland, 2006: -1.3 fielding runs, 16th worst in baseball (15/30) -- about league average
Oakland, 2007: -3.8 fielding runs, 8th worst in baseball (23/30) -- below average
Arizona, 2008: -5.2 fielding runs, 8th worst in baseball (23/30)
What should be duly noted here is that Dan Haren has played for bottom half of the league defensive teams (negative fielding runs) in all but one of his full major league seasons. You can't blame his ERA struggles on the poor fielding abilities of guys like Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn, who joined the Dbacks in the second half of last season. Dan Haren's peripherals (and innings) make him a true stud.
2) Dan Haren was, in my opinion, totally undervalued this season. Where guys in his tier (referring to peripherals here) like CC, Lincecum and Santana went in the first two or three rounds, Haren consistently went at the end of rounds 4 and 5. You say other guys who go later or at the same time as Haren are safer picks, but what is "safer" than a guy whose career ERA is under 3.6 (his ERA has only once been above 3.75 as a full time starting pitcher), has the best control in baseball, strikes out guys like clockwork and goes 200+ IP season after season? The mere fact that guys of lower tiers get drafted before him or in the same round as him indicates that people do not properly recognize the dominant force that Haren truly is.
3) When I talked about Wins in my email, I did not mean to insinuate that Wins were anything but the situational byproduct of many circumstances beyond Haren's control, but rather to highlight that despite the ERA and WHIP "struggles" (as if a 4.00 ERA can be called struggling), Dan Haren has remained stellar in the other 2 starting pitching categories (Ws, Ks) and thus you're hatred of him is somewhat irrational and overstated. Your perception of Dan Haren is almost in line with what Sam Walker called your irrational hatred of Big Fat Bartolo Colon during his prime years...I truly believe him to be a top 5, let alone top 10, starting pitcher (along with the undervalued Javier Vazquez, whom you also sadly hate and whom I will defend to the death another day)
4) Finally, I would like to point out that I am actually from Chicago, not Deluth, so screw the hilltops. GO CUBBIES!
Love,
Jeff
Look for more cool baseball posts in the next few days, though the frequency with which I provide them may decline in the near future.
BJ Upton: broken or overrated?
If I told you that BJ Upton's 2009 peripherals were largely identical to his 2007 numbers, what would you think? In 2007, BJ Upton walked at a 12.1% clip and struck out 32.5% of the time (.42 BB/K). His speed score, according to the Bill James Handbook was 4.9 (speed score ranges from 0 to 10, with the super majority of players ranging from 3 to 7).
This year, in 2009, the elder Upton is drawing slighly more walks (12.4 BB%), striking out a little less (32.1 K%) and running faster (7.5 speed score). Yet, his wOBA is .110 points lower this season than it was in 2007. What gives?
In 2007, BJ Upton hit for a lot of power (.207 ISO) and drove the ball with authority (19.6 LD%). Since then, shoulder injuries have limited his effectiveness and power, as his ISO has fallen from .207 to .128 and now .091 in the past two seasons and his LD rate has decreased from 19.6 to 18.9 to an anemic 13.8% (13th worst amongst MLB starters). Luck also had much to do with BJ Upton's 2007 successes. In 2007, Upton sported an unsustainably high .399 BABIP (xBABIP was .328) and shot 19.8% of his flyballs for home runs (league average is 11%).
To be fair, a lot of Upton's home run success was made his own, as his home runs averaged 395 feet in distance. That's a lot of pop, but it still does not equivocate to 24 home runs with sub-40% flyball rate. BJ Upton, who supports a lifetime 1.50 GB/FB rate, hits the ball on the ground way too much to be a prodigious power hitter. BJ Upton is strong, to be sure -- just look at what his brother can do -- but he gets on top of the ball way too much to consistently drive pitches out of the yard.
Despite injury last season, Upton increased his moonshot average to 407 feet, but his increasing GB rate led to a correction in his home run numbers. His 8% HR/FB rate may have been a little low, but it certainly was more within the realm of reasonable expectations from a guy who hits half of his balls in play in the form of grounders.
Some people claim that BJ Upton has been getting unlucky this year. I tend to side with them, but I do not think that the elder Upton will improve much this season -- at least not if he is still being affected and limited by lingering shoulder issues (just look at Geovanny Soto). Right now, Upton has a ridiculously low 4.5 HR/FB%, but his two jacks have averaged an anemic 365 feet in length -- less than those of midget MVP Dustin Pedroia (370 foot average). His BABIP is .270, but his xBABIP is only .290, thanks to a sharp decrease in line drives this season. Really, the only thing that BJ Upton has improved upon is his plate discipline (marginally) and steals/speed (by a lot).
All of this says one thing to me: if I am a fantasy owner, I do not want BJ Upton on my team. If I, like The 'Bright' One, owned him, I would try shopping him to salvage whatever value I could get. I do not see Upton hitting even .260 going forward or eclipsing 10 HR this season (and if he does, it won't be by much). He'll get 40 SB this season, but probably kill your other categories (except runs) in the process.
Sell! Sell! Sell! (and no, not to me).
This year, in 2009, the elder Upton is drawing slighly more walks (12.4 BB%), striking out a little less (32.1 K%) and running faster (7.5 speed score). Yet, his wOBA is .110 points lower this season than it was in 2007. What gives?
In 2007, BJ Upton hit for a lot of power (.207 ISO) and drove the ball with authority (19.6 LD%). Since then, shoulder injuries have limited his effectiveness and power, as his ISO has fallen from .207 to .128 and now .091 in the past two seasons and his LD rate has decreased from 19.6 to 18.9 to an anemic 13.8% (13th worst amongst MLB starters). Luck also had much to do with BJ Upton's 2007 successes. In 2007, Upton sported an unsustainably high .399 BABIP (xBABIP was .328) and shot 19.8% of his flyballs for home runs (league average is 11%).
To be fair, a lot of Upton's home run success was made his own, as his home runs averaged 395 feet in distance. That's a lot of pop, but it still does not equivocate to 24 home runs with sub-40% flyball rate. BJ Upton, who supports a lifetime 1.50 GB/FB rate, hits the ball on the ground way too much to be a prodigious power hitter. BJ Upton is strong, to be sure -- just look at what his brother can do -- but he gets on top of the ball way too much to consistently drive pitches out of the yard.
Despite injury last season, Upton increased his moonshot average to 407 feet, but his increasing GB rate led to a correction in his home run numbers. His 8% HR/FB rate may have been a little low, but it certainly was more within the realm of reasonable expectations from a guy who hits half of his balls in play in the form of grounders.
Some people claim that BJ Upton has been getting unlucky this year. I tend to side with them, but I do not think that the elder Upton will improve much this season -- at least not if he is still being affected and limited by lingering shoulder issues (just look at Geovanny Soto). Right now, Upton has a ridiculously low 4.5 HR/FB%, but his two jacks have averaged an anemic 365 feet in length -- less than those of midget MVP Dustin Pedroia (370 foot average). His BABIP is .270, but his xBABIP is only .290, thanks to a sharp decrease in line drives this season. Really, the only thing that BJ Upton has improved upon is his plate discipline (marginally) and steals/speed (by a lot).
All of this says one thing to me: if I am a fantasy owner, I do not want BJ Upton on my team. If I, like The 'Bright' One, owned him, I would try shopping him to salvage whatever value I could get. I do not see Upton hitting even .260 going forward or eclipsing 10 HR this season (and if he does, it won't be by much). He'll get 40 SB this season, but probably kill your other categories (except runs) in the process.
Sell! Sell! Sell! (and no, not to me).
Put it on the board!
The 'Bright' One and I have started a side blog to catalog our frequent and numerous baseball/sports (notice how I clump all other sports under "sports") bets.
You can follow/find it here.
You can follow/find it here.
Recap
We've done a lot of posts in the last week and several ones that I think are quite interesting (perhaps because I wrote them and am a pompous ass) ended up getting buried. Here's a quick look at the fantasy analysis (the majority of which focused on pitchers) I've done this week in case you're interested:
- I analyzed the recent success of both Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Millwood and their potential for sustained success
- I took a look at the recent struggles of Josh Beckett and found room for hope
- I also took a look at the recent struggles of Justin Verlander and found him to be the perfect buy low candidate for your fantasy team
- Lastings Milledge is struggling in AAA and will never amount to half of what Elijah Dukes can do
- I chronicled the recent life of Elijah Dukes
- I highlighted an article on ESPN that analyzed BABIP rates that could provide you with invaluable insight on how to scout baseball players
Shut Up David "MVP" Eckstein
Seriously dude, no one cares about you're own personal fantasy team. If you wanna go into extensive analysis on a particular plays on your fantasy team like your Uggla posts, that's fine BUT NO ONE CARES ABOUT YOU'RE PERSONAL FANTASY TEAM. STOP TALKING ABOUT IT. That is all. Good day.
Is Javier Vazquez Hall Of Fame Material?
It's an interesting question to ask. On the surface, Javier Vazquez seems like the most unclutch pitcher in the world. His ERA has been below 4.40 only once in the past five seasons and he is notorious for pitching poorly when the game matters most. If Win-Loss records meant anything (which they do not), his five year 63-61 mark would be nothing to talk about.
But that's where all my "criticism" of Javi ends. If you look beneath the situational numbers, you find one of baseball's premier pitchers. Over the past five seasons (1041.1 IP), Javier Vazquez has struck out 939 batters (8.12 K/9) and walked a mere 273 (2.39 BB/9). Even with his high 1.25 HR/9 rate over that five year period, Vasquez still managed to post a FIP just below 4 (3.99), despite playing 4 of those 5 seasons at baseball's most home run friendly parks. If you remove Vasquez's disastrous 2004 campaign from this analysis and we look at the four year period from 2005-2008, we find even more to love about Ozzie's whipping boy.
At HR friendly US Cellular and Chase Field between 2004 and 2008, Javier Vazquez struck out 789, walked 213 and only gave up 112 long balls in 843.1 IP. That's good for a 8.42 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, and remarkable (given the circumstance that Javi is a flyball pitcher at two home run inflating parks) 1.19 HR/9 -- significant improvements on his already great peripherals from the five year analysis. Javi's FIP over this period is a very respectable 3.81.
So if Javi is so great, why were his numbers so terrible over this period of time? The answers are simple.
Vazquez's stint on the Yankees in 2004 was just a down year. Vazquez gave a then career high amount of bombs (33) in a career low amount of innings (198). Vazquez, who had just moved from the NL to the AL that season had to make adjustments and in doing so, his K/9 fell from 9.40 per nine in 2003 to a career low 6.82 per nine in 2004. His walk rate, though not terrible, spiked to a career high 2.73 per nine. Following his down year on the Yankees, Vazquez adjusted and his peripherals returned to normal. His K/9 rose and BB/9 fell to match his career rates and would remain pretty consistent from 2005-2008. However, as Vazquez spent a lot of time in both Chase Field and US Cellular Field, he was still susceptible to the long ball. In 2005, Javier Vazquez topped his home run mark from 2004 with 35 bombs allowed, but did so in 18 extra innings of work. When Vazquez was traded from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox, he not only made the transition from the NL to the AL again (this time, Javi would make the necessary adjustments and his peripherals would remain constant), he moved to one of the worst defensive teams in all of baseball. With the notable exception of Joe Crede, who saw limited playing time due to back injury complications from 2006-2008, and Orlando Cabrera, who only played for the team for one season, the entire White Sox infield and outfield have not only been one of the most below average defensive teams in baseball, but also one of the least efficient at converting balls-in-play into outs. In 2007 and 2008, the White Sox respectively ranked 23rd and 20th in defensive efficiency. If not for Orlando Cabrera last season, the White Sox would have ranked even lower in 2008. Furthermore, in 2006 and 2008, Javier Vazquez's BABIPs were .321 and .328, both career high marks.
Some combination of bad luck, poor defense and home run inflating parks have resulted in a stigma being placed upon Javier Vazquez in both real life and fantasy baseball. His K/9 and BB/9 (and thus K/BB) rates have been top of the league since 2000. In fact, since 2000, the only players who have better control (K/BB) rates than Vazquez are Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. Pretty exclusive company.
Currently, 33 year old Javi has 11 seasons and 200 strikeouts to his name. Since 2000, Javi has managed to pitch 200+ innings in every seasons except 2004 (where he tossed 198 innings). If -- and with pitchers, this is a big if -- Vazquez can pitch another five seasons in the big leagues and maintain the same ratios he did last season (at offense inflating US Cellular Field), Vazquez will be able to reach the exclusive 3000 strikeout mark by the age of 38. If -- again, a BIG if -- he can pitch at this rate for ten seasons, he will reasonably be able to reach the 4,000 K plateau, something that only four other pitchers have ever been able to do.
Javier Vazquez may not have a sexy win total or ERA, but his ratios suggest that he's hall of fame material thus far into his career. If he reaches the 3,000 strikeout mark (let alone the 4,000 K mark), Javi should be a lock to get in by the time his career ends. If Vazquez were to pitch until he was 41 and eclipse the 3,000 K mark at age 38, he could easily pass Greg Maddux for 10th place on the all-time strikeouts list. Fuck Wins, Fuck ERA. Sub-poor offensive teams like the 1999-2003 Expos and 2007 White Sox have prevented Vazquez from racking up elite win totals, while poor defensive teams like the 2005 Diamondbacks and 2007-2008 White Sox have inflated his ERA. Javi deserves a spot in Cooperstown so far.
Now that Vazquez has moved from a offense-friendly park in the AL to an offense-neutral park in the NL, his numbers should only improve going as his K/9 increases/maintains and HR/9 declines. Expect big things from Vazquez going forward.
But that's where all my "criticism" of Javi ends. If you look beneath the situational numbers, you find one of baseball's premier pitchers. Over the past five seasons (1041.1 IP), Javier Vazquez has struck out 939 batters (8.12 K/9) and walked a mere 273 (2.39 BB/9). Even with his high 1.25 HR/9 rate over that five year period, Vasquez still managed to post a FIP just below 4 (3.99), despite playing 4 of those 5 seasons at baseball's most home run friendly parks. If you remove Vasquez's disastrous 2004 campaign from this analysis and we look at the four year period from 2005-2008, we find even more to love about Ozzie's whipping boy.
At HR friendly US Cellular and Chase Field between 2004 and 2008, Javier Vazquez struck out 789, walked 213 and only gave up 112 long balls in 843.1 IP. That's good for a 8.42 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, and remarkable (given the circumstance that Javi is a flyball pitcher at two home run inflating parks) 1.19 HR/9 -- significant improvements on his already great peripherals from the five year analysis. Javi's FIP over this period is a very respectable 3.81.
So if Javi is so great, why were his numbers so terrible over this period of time? The answers are simple.
Vazquez's stint on the Yankees in 2004 was just a down year. Vazquez gave a then career high amount of bombs (33) in a career low amount of innings (198). Vazquez, who had just moved from the NL to the AL that season had to make adjustments and in doing so, his K/9 fell from 9.40 per nine in 2003 to a career low 6.82 per nine in 2004. His walk rate, though not terrible, spiked to a career high 2.73 per nine. Following his down year on the Yankees, Vazquez adjusted and his peripherals returned to normal. His K/9 rose and BB/9 fell to match his career rates and would remain pretty consistent from 2005-2008. However, as Vazquez spent a lot of time in both Chase Field and US Cellular Field, he was still susceptible to the long ball. In 2005, Javier Vazquez topped his home run mark from 2004 with 35 bombs allowed, but did so in 18 extra innings of work. When Vazquez was traded from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox, he not only made the transition from the NL to the AL again (this time, Javi would make the necessary adjustments and his peripherals would remain constant), he moved to one of the worst defensive teams in all of baseball. With the notable exception of Joe Crede, who saw limited playing time due to back injury complications from 2006-2008, and Orlando Cabrera, who only played for the team for one season, the entire White Sox infield and outfield have not only been one of the most below average defensive teams in baseball, but also one of the least efficient at converting balls-in-play into outs. In 2007 and 2008, the White Sox respectively ranked 23rd and 20th in defensive efficiency. If not for Orlando Cabrera last season, the White Sox would have ranked even lower in 2008. Furthermore, in 2006 and 2008, Javier Vazquez's BABIPs were .321 and .328, both career high marks.
Some combination of bad luck, poor defense and home run inflating parks have resulted in a stigma being placed upon Javier Vazquez in both real life and fantasy baseball. His K/9 and BB/9 (and thus K/BB) rates have been top of the league since 2000. In fact, since 2000, the only players who have better control (K/BB) rates than Vazquez are Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. Pretty exclusive company.
Currently, 33 year old Javi has 11 seasons and 200 strikeouts to his name. Since 2000, Javi has managed to pitch 200+ innings in every seasons except 2004 (where he tossed 198 innings). If -- and with pitchers, this is a big if -- Vazquez can pitch another five seasons in the big leagues and maintain the same ratios he did last season (at offense inflating US Cellular Field), Vazquez will be able to reach the exclusive 3000 strikeout mark by the age of 38. If -- again, a BIG if -- he can pitch at this rate for ten seasons, he will reasonably be able to reach the 4,000 K plateau, something that only four other pitchers have ever been able to do.
Javier Vazquez may not have a sexy win total or ERA, but his ratios suggest that he's hall of fame material thus far into his career. If he reaches the 3,000 strikeout mark (let alone the 4,000 K mark), Javi should be a lock to get in by the time his career ends. If Vazquez were to pitch until he was 41 and eclipse the 3,000 K mark at age 38, he could easily pass Greg Maddux for 10th place on the all-time strikeouts list. Fuck Wins, Fuck ERA. Sub-poor offensive teams like the 1999-2003 Expos and 2007 White Sox have prevented Vazquez from racking up elite win totals, while poor defensive teams like the 2005 Diamondbacks and 2007-2008 White Sox have inflated his ERA. Javi deserves a spot in Cooperstown so far.
Now that Vazquez has moved from a offense-friendly park in the AL to an offense-neutral park in the NL, his numbers should only improve going as his K/9 increases/maintains and HR/9 declines. Expect big things from Vazquez going forward.
Cubs vs. Sox
On an impulse arising from an argument I recently engaged into with a statistically challenged friend who refuses to admit the 2008 Cubs were better than the 2008 White Sox (and also that the 2009 Cubs are better than the 2009 Sox), I've decided to analyze FIP (Fielding Independent ERA, a metric that projects probably future ERA trends by analyzing a pitcher's impact stats (K, BB, HR)), Value Wins (similar to WARP), fielding/batting runs and wOBA (weighted on-base average -- similar to EQA, but adjusted to reflect on-base percentage, rather than bating average) of each player, position by position, to uncontentiously prove that -- statistically speaking, not just in terms of Win-Loss records -- the 2008 Cubs were undeniably superior to the 2008 White Sox and that the 2009 Cubs pitching staff, based on future movements in ERA based on FIP, will be better than the 2009 White Sox. The DH position will be ignored and only starters will be compared. In the case of a platoon (ie, the Cubs CF position), an accumulation of both platoon member's stats will be utilized. All stats are courtesy of Fangraphs.com.
Just so we are clear, let me delineate who plays each position (courtesy of Baseball-Reference)
2008 CUBS
C-Geovany Soto
1B-Derrek Lee
2B-Mark DeRosa
SS-Ryan Theriot
3B-Aramis Ramirez
LF-Alfonso Soriano
CF-Reed Johnson/Jim Edmonds (platoon)*
RF-Kosuke Fukudome
SP1-Carlos Zambrano
SP2-Ryan Dempster
SP3-12 starts by Rich Harden/10 starts by Sean Gallagher (platoon)
SP4-Ted Lilly
SP5-Jason Marquis
RP1-Carlos Marmol
RP2-Bob Howry
RP3-Michael Wuertz
RP4-Neil Cotts
RP5-Sean Marshall
CL-Kerry Wood
*-stats will be undervalued because values for offense are not split by team and Jim Edmonds had negative production on the Padres which will lower his cumulative value for the season.
2008 WHITE SOX
C-AJ Pierzynski
1B-Paul Konerko
2B-Alexei Ramirez
SS-Orlando Cabrera
3B-Joe Crede/Juan Uribe (platoon)
LF-Carlos Quentin
CF-Nick Swisher
RF-Jermaine Dye
SP1-Mark Buehrle
SP2-Javier Vazquez
SP3-John Danks
SP4-Gavin Floyd
SP5-Jose Contreras
RP1-Matt Thorton
RP2-Octavio Dotel
RP3-Scott Linebrink
RP4-Boone Logan
RP5-Clayton Richard
CL-Bobby Jenks
Before I present the data, it is important to note that I calculated differences in performance between the two teams based on the Cubs. This means that positive differences between BATTING DATA (as well as win values for batting and pitching) shows an advantage for the Cubs, while a negative difference shows an advantage for the White Sox. Likewise, for PITCHING DATA (FIP), a negative difference favors the Cubs and a positive difference favors the White Sox.
Here is the comparison data for hitters (click image to enlarge)
Here is the data for pitching (again, click the image to enlarge):
Finally, there is the cumulative Win data:
Superficially speaking, it might appear that the difference between the two teams last season was only .7 wins in favor of the Cubs. However, a deeper delve into the numbers will reveal the true nature of why Cubs starters will perform better than Sox starters in 2009 (and why the Cubs won 8 more games than the Sox last season):
What you can observe here is the following:
1) The Cubs have a CLEAR advantage in hitting over the White Sox. A look at wOBA data shows that the Cubs outperform the Sox Runs-Created relevant areas. Although the Sox may out home run the Cubs, the Cubs outwalk, out double and under-grind (less use of sac bunts, station-to-station smallball, etc) the White Sox.
2) Now that the The Cubs have subtracted Jim Edmonds and Mark DeRosa and added Milton Bradley and Mike Fontenot, the Cubs have GREATLY improved their defensive prowess. Last season, the Cubs were the 9th most efficient team at converting balls in play into outs. On the other hand, the White Sox, who were the 11th worst at converting balls in play into outs, have only decreased the ability of their defense by moving the defensively below-average Alexei Ramirez from 2B to SS and by subtracting Orlando Cabrera (the best defensive player in baseball last season), Crede and Nick Swisher and replacing them with Josh Fields and some combination of Dewayne Wise (below average) and Brian Anderson (slightly above average). This means that going forward, Cubs pitchers are more apt to (continue to) outperform their FIPs than the White Sox.
3) The Cubs pitching staff improved this season, while the White Sox's did not. Out are 300 IP of 4.5+ FIP baseball by Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz and Jason Marquis. Sadly, out too is Kerry Wood. However, in comes pieces like Kevin Gregg (above average), Aaron Heilman (above average) and Angel Guzman (average). Furthermore, "poor" innings of baseball thrown by Gallagher and Jason Marquis last season will be replaced by average/excellent innings by Sean Marshall/Rich Harden (if healthy). The Cubs have plenty of average/above average SP depths (ie, Jeff Samardzija) around to deal with health concerns in the starting rotation (average innings+excellent innings=better than average innings). The White Sox, as I just mentioned, added no value-added pieces (Bartolo Colon? Bahahahah) and a lot of the pieces they have in place (Dotel, Floyd and even Danks to some extent) are headed towards some serious regression in 2009.
Thus, my conclusions are the following:
1) In terms of all around production, the Cubs were a better team than the White Sox in 2008, but thanks to much luck on behalf of both teams, the performance gap between the two teams last season was actually smaller than you might expect.
2) The Cubs had a SIGNIFICANTLY superior (almost ten fold) offense than the White Sox in 2008. There is really no reason to expect a notable decrease in the offense gap between the two teams in 2009 (you can add a month of Carlos Quentin, but you need to reconcile it against some possible regression in his production) because the Sox didn't really add any offensive pieces (also, the Cubs added Milton Bradley).
3) The White Sox defense was one of the worst in baseball last season and is only getting worse. The Cubs defense was top 10 in 2009 and thanks to the subtraction of Edmonds (1.5 defensive WINS below average) and DeRosa (average defensively)/additions of Mike Fontenot (+6.5 runs above average defensively in under 1000 career innings (less than a full season of work)) and Milton Bradley (+2.9 fielding runs above average). This will give the Cub's pitching staff and advantage over the White Sox pitching staff. In terms of FIP, however, both teams were roughly equal all around last season.
4) Ozzie Guillen is a terrible manager. I don't care if the White Sox did win a World Series in 2005. I don't care if he's a "fiery" son-of-a-bitch who motivates his team with untraditional, often homophobic/misogynistic antics. The mere fact that Ozzie Guillen plays station-to-station baseball (small ball), is committed to bunt, ignores the necessity of his players to get on-base regularly and liberally issues free passes in the form of "retaliation" is just going to bite him in the ass as it did in 2007. Once Ozzie stops winning, those comments he makes and actions he takes will be the icing on the cake that is him getting fired. It's also good to note, as irrelevant as it may be, that Ozzie was also (one of) the worst baseball players in the long and colorful history of baseball.
5) Flyball pitchers and The Cell are a bad combination. Gavin Floyd gave up the fifth most home runs (30 bombs in 2008) among any started in baseball last season. John Danks is a flyball pitcher (1.41 HR/9 in the minors) who cut down on his long ball big time last season thanks to a 10% increase in GB% at the expense of his FB%. While Danks is young and could easily sustain an improved HR/9 rate, logic suggests his .69 HR/9 rate last season is most likely to approve/exceed 1.00. Floyd, by the way, was the only sub-4 ERA pitcher with 29 or more home runs, thanks to an incredibly high volume of solo shots. You have to expect some serious regression there.
6) Groundball pitchers and the White Sox defense are a bad combination. Mark Buerhle is a pitch-to-contact hurler with a below average fielder at every position in the infield this season. Orlando Cabrera's +1.5 fielding wins, the best in baseball last season, and Joe Crede's +6.4 fielding runs are no longer there to bail out/balance the defensively challenged Alexei Ramirez (Steve Phillips would tell you his eyes tell him Ramirez is a solid or plus defender) and Paul Konerko. Groundball pitchers+below average defense=frowny face :(
Just so we are clear, let me delineate who plays each position (courtesy of Baseball-Reference)
2008 CUBS
C-Geovany Soto
1B-Derrek Lee
2B-Mark DeRosa
SS-Ryan Theriot
3B-Aramis Ramirez
LF-Alfonso Soriano
CF-Reed Johnson/Jim Edmonds (platoon)*
RF-Kosuke Fukudome
SP1-Carlos Zambrano
SP2-Ryan Dempster
SP3-12 starts by Rich Harden/10 starts by Sean Gallagher (platoon)
SP4-Ted Lilly
SP5-Jason Marquis
RP1-Carlos Marmol
RP2-Bob Howry
RP3-Michael Wuertz
RP4-Neil Cotts
RP5-Sean Marshall
CL-Kerry Wood
*-stats will be undervalued because values for offense are not split by team and Jim Edmonds had negative production on the Padres which will lower his cumulative value for the season.
2008 WHITE SOX
C-AJ Pierzynski
1B-Paul Konerko
2B-Alexei Ramirez
SS-Orlando Cabrera
3B-Joe Crede/Juan Uribe (platoon)
LF-Carlos Quentin
CF-Nick Swisher
RF-Jermaine Dye
SP1-Mark Buehrle
SP2-Javier Vazquez
SP3-John Danks
SP4-Gavin Floyd
SP5-Jose Contreras
RP1-Matt Thorton
RP2-Octavio Dotel
RP3-Scott Linebrink
RP4-Boone Logan
RP5-Clayton Richard
CL-Bobby Jenks
Before I present the data, it is important to note that I calculated differences in performance between the two teams based on the Cubs. This means that positive differences between BATTING DATA (as well as win values for batting and pitching) shows an advantage for the Cubs, while a negative difference shows an advantage for the White Sox. Likewise, for PITCHING DATA (FIP), a negative difference favors the Cubs and a positive difference favors the White Sox.
Here is the comparison data for hitters (click image to enlarge)
Here is the data for pitching (again, click the image to enlarge):
Finally, there is the cumulative Win data:
Superficially speaking, it might appear that the difference between the two teams last season was only .7 wins in favor of the Cubs. However, a deeper delve into the numbers will reveal the true nature of why Cubs starters will perform better than Sox starters in 2009 (and why the Cubs won 8 more games than the Sox last season):
What you can observe here is the following:
1) The Cubs have a CLEAR advantage in hitting over the White Sox. A look at wOBA data shows that the Cubs outperform the Sox Runs-Created relevant areas. Although the Sox may out home run the Cubs, the Cubs outwalk, out double and under-grind (less use of sac bunts, station-to-station smallball, etc) the White Sox.
2) Now that the The Cubs have subtracted Jim Edmonds and Mark DeRosa and added Milton Bradley and Mike Fontenot, the Cubs have GREATLY improved their defensive prowess. Last season, the Cubs were the 9th most efficient team at converting balls in play into outs. On the other hand, the White Sox, who were the 11th worst at converting balls in play into outs, have only decreased the ability of their defense by moving the defensively below-average Alexei Ramirez from 2B to SS and by subtracting Orlando Cabrera (the best defensive player in baseball last season), Crede and Nick Swisher and replacing them with Josh Fields and some combination of Dewayne Wise (below average) and Brian Anderson (slightly above average). This means that going forward, Cubs pitchers are more apt to (continue to) outperform their FIPs than the White Sox.
3) The Cubs pitching staff improved this season, while the White Sox's did not. Out are 300 IP of 4.5+ FIP baseball by Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz and Jason Marquis. Sadly, out too is Kerry Wood. However, in comes pieces like Kevin Gregg (above average), Aaron Heilman (above average) and Angel Guzman (average). Furthermore, "poor" innings of baseball thrown by Gallagher and Jason Marquis last season will be replaced by average/excellent innings by Sean Marshall/Rich Harden (if healthy). The Cubs have plenty of average/above average SP depths (ie, Jeff Samardzija) around to deal with health concerns in the starting rotation (average innings+excellent innings=better than average innings). The White Sox, as I just mentioned, added no value-added pieces (Bartolo Colon? Bahahahah) and a lot of the pieces they have in place (Dotel, Floyd and even Danks to some extent) are headed towards some serious regression in 2009.
Thus, my conclusions are the following:
1) In terms of all around production, the Cubs were a better team than the White Sox in 2008, but thanks to much luck on behalf of both teams, the performance gap between the two teams last season was actually smaller than you might expect.
2) The Cubs had a SIGNIFICANTLY superior (almost ten fold) offense than the White Sox in 2008. There is really no reason to expect a notable decrease in the offense gap between the two teams in 2009 (you can add a month of Carlos Quentin, but you need to reconcile it against some possible regression in his production) because the Sox didn't really add any offensive pieces (also, the Cubs added Milton Bradley).
3) The White Sox defense was one of the worst in baseball last season and is only getting worse. The Cubs defense was top 10 in 2009 and thanks to the subtraction of Edmonds (1.5 defensive WINS below average) and DeRosa (average defensively)/additions of Mike Fontenot (+6.5 runs above average defensively in under 1000 career innings (less than a full season of work)) and Milton Bradley (+2.9 fielding runs above average). This will give the Cub's pitching staff and advantage over the White Sox pitching staff. In terms of FIP, however, both teams were roughly equal all around last season.
4) Ozzie Guillen is a terrible manager. I don't care if the White Sox did win a World Series in 2005. I don't care if he's a "fiery" son-of-a-bitch who motivates his team with untraditional, often homophobic/misogynistic antics. The mere fact that Ozzie Guillen plays station-to-station baseball (small ball), is committed to bunt, ignores the necessity of his players to get on-base regularly and liberally issues free passes in the form of "retaliation" is just going to bite him in the ass as it did in 2007. Once Ozzie stops winning, those comments he makes and actions he takes will be the icing on the cake that is him getting fired. It's also good to note, as irrelevant as it may be, that Ozzie was also (one of) the worst baseball players in the long and colorful history of baseball.
5) Flyball pitchers and The Cell are a bad combination. Gavin Floyd gave up the fifth most home runs (30 bombs in 2008) among any started in baseball last season. John Danks is a flyball pitcher (1.41 HR/9 in the minors) who cut down on his long ball big time last season thanks to a 10% increase in GB% at the expense of his FB%. While Danks is young and could easily sustain an improved HR/9 rate, logic suggests his .69 HR/9 rate last season is most likely to approve/exceed 1.00. Floyd, by the way, was the only sub-4 ERA pitcher with 29 or more home runs, thanks to an incredibly high volume of solo shots. You have to expect some serious regression there.
6) Groundball pitchers and the White Sox defense are a bad combination. Mark Buerhle is a pitch-to-contact hurler with a below average fielder at every position in the infield this season. Orlando Cabrera's +1.5 fielding wins, the best in baseball last season, and Joe Crede's +6.4 fielding runs are no longer there to bail out/balance the defensively challenged Alexei Ramirez (Steve Phillips would tell you his eyes tell him Ramirez is a solid or plus defender) and Paul Konerko. Groundball pitchers+below average defense=frowny face :(
Five Up, Five Down
Today, I'm going to look at five pitchers who are primed to increase in value this season and five guys who you can expect some serious regression from.
FIVE UP
1. Javier Vazquez
A combination of his lack of success in the AL (minus 2007) in recent years matched against his great peripherals make him unfairly undervalued. Despite posting a FIP of 3.86 or lower each of the past 3 seasons, the absolutely TERRIBLE defense of the Chicago White Sox helped to inflate Javvy's ERA to 4.84, 3.73 and 4.67 over that time frame. Last year, Vazquez struck out 8.64 guys per nine, walked 2.64 per nine and gave up a little over a home run per game (1.08 HR/9), good for a very solid 3.74 FIP. Vazquez's 68.3 LOB% also contributed heavily to an inflated ERA last year. In short, Vazquez's move away from the HR friendly Cell, defensive challenged White Sox and stronger hitting AL to the defensively strong Braves and pitcher-who-bats NL should only make him a top 10 guy in 2009.
2. Jonathan Sanchez
Sanchez is a guy who gets a bad rep due to high ERA/FIP splits and bad luck. Jonathan Sanchez may have a below average defense behind him this year, but his 3.85/5.01 FIP/ERA split in 2008 calls for some extreme regression. In 250 big league innings, Sanchez has struck out 252 guys. Fangraph notes that "batters swung and missed at 10.9% of Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball." This, combined with a 67.5 LOB% in 2008 tell me that Sanchez is bound to improve.
3. Josh Beckett
After two consecutive season of 200+ IP, the injury bug again bit Beckett, limiting him to a serviceable 27 starts, 175 IP. His ERA was 4.03, but the FIP was a sparkling 3.24. Beckett's K rate has been increasing since 2006, while his BB rate has declined over that same period. Boston had a top 5 defensive team last year and Beckett had an average 71.3 LOB%, so what was the problem? As his -0.92 clutch rating (a fangraphs metric that compares a player's performance in high leverage situations to performance in low leverage situations) highlights, Josh Beckett allowed a majority of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. Despite Beckett's tendency to be slightly unclutchy on the Red Sox, there's absolutely no reason to think that this extreme unclutchiness will continue in 2009. Simply put, all signs point to a return to great success for Josh Beckett next year.
4. Derek Lowe
This extreme groundballer is second only to Brandon Webb when it came to burning worms last year. Despite his four years of success in Dodgers Stadium, there is arguably room for improvement (despite Lowe's increasing age). Groundballers tend to be more reliant on the defense of the infield behind them to keep their numbers good. One would assume, using FIP as the breakever point, that a pitcher on a team with a good defensive infield would outperform their FIP, while one a defensively challenged team would underperform their FIP. According to fangraphs data, the Dodgers infield last year combined to be -32.3 fielding runs below average, while the Braves infield was worth a positive 2.5 fielding runs above average (Kelly Johnson's limited range kind of took down the team's total defensive value by being -9.0 Fielding Runs below average last year, but was similtaneously slightly above average when it came to not making errors). So while Derek Lowe negligibly underperformed his FIP in each of his four years on the Dodgers except 2005 (his FIP/ERA splits between 2005 and 2008 were 4.16/3.61, 3.68/3.63, 3.97/3.88 and 3.26/3.24), you have to expect a favorably larger FIP/ERA split going forward for the 35 year old ex-closer whose lack of K's is subsidized by superior control (2.60+ K/BB as a starter) and a lack of home runs (.65 HR/9 as a starter). If nothing more, expect Derek Lowe to continue to post an ERA around/below 3.6 and a solid WHIP in the 1.2 range over 200ish innings.
5. Andrew Miller
Going back to the "quality pitchers who get a bad rap due to poor FIP/ERA splits" theme, Andrew Miller was the most unfortunate victim of bad luck amongst all major leaguers last season. Despite increasing his K rate and decreasing both his walk and home run rates in each of the past three seasons, Andrew Miller's ERA has risen each year. His FIP/ERA splits since 2006 are 5.47/6.10, 5.27/5.63 and 4.00/5.87. A lot of this is due to the fact that both the Marlins and Tigers rank amongst the league's worst defensive teams, but how much of Andrew Miller's league leading +1.87 F-E (FIP-ERA) ratio should persist next year? Miller has a great arm that is primed for a breakout season if he finds shelter on a friendlier team. Even on the Marlins, we should expect a sharp decline in ERA from Andrew Miller next season, hopefully to a fantasy relevant range.
FIVE DOWN
1. Johan Santana
Each of the past two seasons have seen a sharp decline in Santana's once unquestionably dominate peripherals. After averageing a FIP of 3.03 between 2002 and 2006, Santana has seen his FIP rise to 3.81 and 3.51 over the past two seasons, as his strike out rate has fallen and walk rate risen. Santana's career best 2.53 ERA was largely the by-product of ridiculously lucky 82.6 LOB% (over 10% above league average) and a defensively awesome defense (sixth best in the league at converting balls in play into outs). Santana, who struck out less than 9 guys per nine (7.91 per nine to be exact) for the first time since 2001, is bound to bounce back some in his strike out rate from last season (the projection systems on fangraphs see it landing somewhere in the upper 8's per nine range), but Santana's declining numbers indicate that he may be on the decline and is certainly no longer worth an automatic first round pick (and certainly not a pick above Tim Lincecum, who despite his injury potential, posted an ERA/FIP split of exactly zero). Johan Santana has achieved almost all that we can expect from him and thus presents little, if any, upside (and a lot of downside) at pick #16. Santana's just a brand name, at the point, and I strongly suggest you avoid paying that premium.
2. Gavin Floyd
One of the many reasons that the outlook for the 2009 White Sox is so grim is that much of the team's success derived from a great pitching core that outperformed its peripherals. Gavin Floyd posted a quality 3.87 ERA, despite a 4.77 FIP that resulted in a mediocre 6.32 K/9 rate and hellish 1.31 HR/9 rate. As a flyball pitcher in the home run friendly US Cellular Field, the projection systems on fangraphs sees Floyd's HR/9 rate increasing to the 1.4 or even 1.5 per nine range, while projecting a 10% decline in his control (from 2.07 K/BB to the 1.8 K/BB range). Even if Gavin Floyd didn't regress to the 5.00 FIP range next year, you'd have to expect a sharp rise in ERA for the sophomore hurler who was just handed a four-year contract.
3. Armando Galaragga
Like Gavin Floyd, Armando Galaragga is a flyball pitcher who got incredibly lucky last year. His ridiculously low .250 BABIP helped mask his poor 4.88 FIP with a quality 3.73 ERA. Tigers fans who expect a repeat performance from the man who gave up 1.4 HR/9 and struck out a mere 6.53 per nine are going to be in for some severe disappointment. Even if Galaragga maintains his 2.07 K/BB and decreased his HR/9 rate, you've still got to worry about the effects of the very below average defense of the Tigers on Galaragga's numbers. To say the least, the outlook for Armando Galaragga is bleak.
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K still struck out a lot of guys last year, but his numbers indicate some impending regression. In 2008, Dice-K upped his walk rate by 1.5 guys per nine and decreased his K rate by from 8.84 K/8 to 8.27 K/9. At the same time, Dice-K almost halved his HR/9, while neither increasing his GB rate nor decreasing his FB rate -- meaning the downturn was probably a fluke rather than an increase in skill. Furthermore, Dice-K's 18% line drive rate says that his .267 BABIP of 2008 is bound to regress somewhere towards the .290-.300 range. Dice-K's FIP/ERA split last season was 4.03/2.90, and while Boston had a great defense last season (fifth in defensive efficiency), it wasn't and isn't good enough to reasonably sustain a 1.03 F-E. In 2009, I fully expect Dice-K's ERA to be closer to his 2007 numbers than those of last season -- those free passes are going to come back to bite him big time.
5. Joe Saunders
Despite a 91 MPH fastball and above average control (2.41 BB/9), there is much to not like about Saunders (such as his anemic 4.68 K/9 rate and ridiculously low .267 BABIP). Last year, despite posting an average 4.36 FIP and barely 100 Ks to go with 200 innings of work, Joe Saunders put up ace-quality numbers with a 3.41 ERA and 17 Wins. Unfortunately for Halos fans and Saunders, his above average control and average home run rates can't overcome his 30% below average strikeout rate. Saunders is no Greg Maddux.
TWO GUYS WHO COULD GO EITHER WAY
1. Justin Duchscherer
I love me some "Doosher", but his 2009 season could go either way. On one hand, Duchscherer is an injury prone 31 year old with a 3.69/2.54 FIP/ERA split. On the other hand, a 3.69 FIP is nothing to scoff at and the Oakland A's were one of the game's top defensive teams last year (fourth in defensive efficiency). Despite a below average K rate, Doosher's stellar control (2.16 BB/9) and lack of longballs (.70 HR/9) make him a candidate for continued, although comparatively diminished, success. I would expect a mid 3 ERA from Duchscherer to go along with a limited innings load in 2009 (he's starting the first six weeks of the season on the DL).
2. Andy Pettite
Despite posting an ERA north of 4.00 in each of the past two seasons, Andy Pettite's FIP has been below 3.90 (3.71 FIP in 2008) in each of those seasons. Pettite's inflated ERA has largely been due to the extremely poor defensive abilities of guys like Derek Jeter Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu in the field. With Abreu, Giambi and even Matsui out of the field and the addition of Mark Teixeira (+10.7 fielding runs above average last year), you have to expect some improvement in the ability of the Yankee's defense. On the other hand, both Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter's defense are on a rapid decline, while A-Rod hip may hinder his range when he returns. In short, whether or not the Yankee's defense as a whole will significantly improve this year is questionable and Pettite's FIP/ERA splits seem dependant on where the defensive coin toss lands. There's no reason to expect a poor (above 4) FIP or significant downturn in IP from Pettite this year, however.
FIVE UP
1. Javier Vazquez
A combination of his lack of success in the AL (minus 2007) in recent years matched against his great peripherals make him unfairly undervalued. Despite posting a FIP of 3.86 or lower each of the past 3 seasons, the absolutely TERRIBLE defense of the Chicago White Sox helped to inflate Javvy's ERA to 4.84, 3.73 and 4.67 over that time frame. Last year, Vazquez struck out 8.64 guys per nine, walked 2.64 per nine and gave up a little over a home run per game (1.08 HR/9), good for a very solid 3.74 FIP. Vazquez's 68.3 LOB% also contributed heavily to an inflated ERA last year. In short, Vazquez's move away from the HR friendly Cell, defensive challenged White Sox and stronger hitting AL to the defensively strong Braves and pitcher-who-bats NL should only make him a top 10 guy in 2009.
2. Jonathan Sanchez
Sanchez is a guy who gets a bad rep due to high ERA/FIP splits and bad luck. Jonathan Sanchez may have a below average defense behind him this year, but his 3.85/5.01 FIP/ERA split in 2008 calls for some extreme regression. In 250 big league innings, Sanchez has struck out 252 guys. Fangraph notes that "batters swung and missed at 10.9% of Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball." This, combined with a 67.5 LOB% in 2008 tell me that Sanchez is bound to improve.
3. Josh Beckett
After two consecutive season of 200+ IP, the injury bug again bit Beckett, limiting him to a serviceable 27 starts, 175 IP. His ERA was 4.03, but the FIP was a sparkling 3.24. Beckett's K rate has been increasing since 2006, while his BB rate has declined over that same period. Boston had a top 5 defensive team last year and Beckett had an average 71.3 LOB%, so what was the problem? As his -0.92 clutch rating (a fangraphs metric that compares a player's performance in high leverage situations to performance in low leverage situations) highlights, Josh Beckett allowed a majority of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. Despite Beckett's tendency to be slightly unclutchy on the Red Sox, there's absolutely no reason to think that this extreme unclutchiness will continue in 2009. Simply put, all signs point to a return to great success for Josh Beckett next year.
4. Derek Lowe
This extreme groundballer is second only to Brandon Webb when it came to burning worms last year. Despite his four years of success in Dodgers Stadium, there is arguably room for improvement (despite Lowe's increasing age). Groundballers tend to be more reliant on the defense of the infield behind them to keep their numbers good. One would assume, using FIP as the breakever point, that a pitcher on a team with a good defensive infield would outperform their FIP, while one a defensively challenged team would underperform their FIP. According to fangraphs data, the Dodgers infield last year combined to be -32.3 fielding runs below average, while the Braves infield was worth a positive 2.5 fielding runs above average (Kelly Johnson's limited range kind of took down the team's total defensive value by being -9.0 Fielding Runs below average last year, but was similtaneously slightly above average when it came to not making errors). So while Derek Lowe negligibly underperformed his FIP in each of his four years on the Dodgers except 2005 (his FIP/ERA splits between 2005 and 2008 were 4.16/3.61, 3.68/3.63, 3.97/3.88 and 3.26/3.24), you have to expect a favorably larger FIP/ERA split going forward for the 35 year old ex-closer whose lack of K's is subsidized by superior control (2.60+ K/BB as a starter) and a lack of home runs (.65 HR/9 as a starter). If nothing more, expect Derek Lowe to continue to post an ERA around/below 3.6 and a solid WHIP in the 1.2 range over 200ish innings.
5. Andrew Miller
Going back to the "quality pitchers who get a bad rap due to poor FIP/ERA splits" theme, Andrew Miller was the most unfortunate victim of bad luck amongst all major leaguers last season. Despite increasing his K rate and decreasing both his walk and home run rates in each of the past three seasons, Andrew Miller's ERA has risen each year. His FIP/ERA splits since 2006 are 5.47/6.10, 5.27/5.63 and 4.00/5.87. A lot of this is due to the fact that both the Marlins and Tigers rank amongst the league's worst defensive teams, but how much of Andrew Miller's league leading +1.87 F-E (FIP-ERA) ratio should persist next year? Miller has a great arm that is primed for a breakout season if he finds shelter on a friendlier team. Even on the Marlins, we should expect a sharp decline in ERA from Andrew Miller next season, hopefully to a fantasy relevant range.
FIVE DOWN
1. Johan Santana
Each of the past two seasons have seen a sharp decline in Santana's once unquestionably dominate peripherals. After averageing a FIP of 3.03 between 2002 and 2006, Santana has seen his FIP rise to 3.81 and 3.51 over the past two seasons, as his strike out rate has fallen and walk rate risen. Santana's career best 2.53 ERA was largely the by-product of ridiculously lucky 82.6 LOB% (over 10% above league average) and a defensively awesome defense (sixth best in the league at converting balls in play into outs). Santana, who struck out less than 9 guys per nine (7.91 per nine to be exact) for the first time since 2001, is bound to bounce back some in his strike out rate from last season (the projection systems on fangraphs see it landing somewhere in the upper 8's per nine range), but Santana's declining numbers indicate that he may be on the decline and is certainly no longer worth an automatic first round pick (and certainly not a pick above Tim Lincecum, who despite his injury potential, posted an ERA/FIP split of exactly zero). Johan Santana has achieved almost all that we can expect from him and thus presents little, if any, upside (and a lot of downside) at pick #16. Santana's just a brand name, at the point, and I strongly suggest you avoid paying that premium.
2. Gavin Floyd
One of the many reasons that the outlook for the 2009 White Sox is so grim is that much of the team's success derived from a great pitching core that outperformed its peripherals. Gavin Floyd posted a quality 3.87 ERA, despite a 4.77 FIP that resulted in a mediocre 6.32 K/9 rate and hellish 1.31 HR/9 rate. As a flyball pitcher in the home run friendly US Cellular Field, the projection systems on fangraphs sees Floyd's HR/9 rate increasing to the 1.4 or even 1.5 per nine range, while projecting a 10% decline in his control (from 2.07 K/BB to the 1.8 K/BB range). Even if Gavin Floyd didn't regress to the 5.00 FIP range next year, you'd have to expect a sharp rise in ERA for the sophomore hurler who was just handed a four-year contract.
3. Armando Galaragga
Like Gavin Floyd, Armando Galaragga is a flyball pitcher who got incredibly lucky last year. His ridiculously low .250 BABIP helped mask his poor 4.88 FIP with a quality 3.73 ERA. Tigers fans who expect a repeat performance from the man who gave up 1.4 HR/9 and struck out a mere 6.53 per nine are going to be in for some severe disappointment. Even if Galaragga maintains his 2.07 K/BB and decreased his HR/9 rate, you've still got to worry about the effects of the very below average defense of the Tigers on Galaragga's numbers. To say the least, the outlook for Armando Galaragga is bleak.
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K still struck out a lot of guys last year, but his numbers indicate some impending regression. In 2008, Dice-K upped his walk rate by 1.5 guys per nine and decreased his K rate by from 8.84 K/8 to 8.27 K/9. At the same time, Dice-K almost halved his HR/9, while neither increasing his GB rate nor decreasing his FB rate -- meaning the downturn was probably a fluke rather than an increase in skill. Furthermore, Dice-K's 18% line drive rate says that his .267 BABIP of 2008 is bound to regress somewhere towards the .290-.300 range. Dice-K's FIP/ERA split last season was 4.03/2.90, and while Boston had a great defense last season (fifth in defensive efficiency), it wasn't and isn't good enough to reasonably sustain a 1.03 F-E. In 2009, I fully expect Dice-K's ERA to be closer to his 2007 numbers than those of last season -- those free passes are going to come back to bite him big time.
5. Joe Saunders
Despite a 91 MPH fastball and above average control (2.41 BB/9), there is much to not like about Saunders (such as his anemic 4.68 K/9 rate and ridiculously low .267 BABIP). Last year, despite posting an average 4.36 FIP and barely 100 Ks to go with 200 innings of work, Joe Saunders put up ace-quality numbers with a 3.41 ERA and 17 Wins. Unfortunately for Halos fans and Saunders, his above average control and average home run rates can't overcome his 30% below average strikeout rate. Saunders is no Greg Maddux.
TWO GUYS WHO COULD GO EITHER WAY
1. Justin Duchscherer
I love me some "Doosher", but his 2009 season could go either way. On one hand, Duchscherer is an injury prone 31 year old with a 3.69/2.54 FIP/ERA split. On the other hand, a 3.69 FIP is nothing to scoff at and the Oakland A's were one of the game's top defensive teams last year (fourth in defensive efficiency). Despite a below average K rate, Doosher's stellar control (2.16 BB/9) and lack of longballs (.70 HR/9) make him a candidate for continued, although comparatively diminished, success. I would expect a mid 3 ERA from Duchscherer to go along with a limited innings load in 2009 (he's starting the first six weeks of the season on the DL).
2. Andy Pettite
Despite posting an ERA north of 4.00 in each of the past two seasons, Andy Pettite's FIP has been below 3.90 (3.71 FIP in 2008) in each of those seasons. Pettite's inflated ERA has largely been due to the extremely poor defensive abilities of guys like Derek Jeter Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu in the field. With Abreu, Giambi and even Matsui out of the field and the addition of Mark Teixeira (+10.7 fielding runs above average last year), you have to expect some improvement in the ability of the Yankee's defense. On the other hand, both Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter's defense are on a rapid decline, while A-Rod hip may hinder his range when he returns. In short, whether or not the Yankee's defense as a whole will significantly improve this year is questionable and Pettite's FIP/ERA splits seem dependant on where the defensive coin toss lands. There's no reason to expect a poor (above 4) FIP or significant downturn in IP from Pettite this year, however.
David "MVP" Eckstein's Drafting Strategy for Pitchers
My drafting strategy for pitching was about value retention. Whenever you draft high value pitchers, you are taking on a bunch of risk by forgoing valuable multi-category hitters to take someone from a deep position that features much volatility. Undrafted guys like Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster often outperform big name guys like Carlos Zambrano each season, but they usually don't repeat -- at least not at the same level. Guys like Lincecum have great seasons, but then become overrated, overvalued and often placed in questionable positions of health (consult PAP!).
So my strategy for drafting starting pitchers was firmly placed on the following dynamics:
1) FIP and xFIP
2) D/E and Aggregate Fielding Runs
3) LOB%
4) K/9
5) PAP and the Verducci Effect
I focused on FIP for obvious reasons. I wanted to know whose success was "for real" (ie, Dan Haren) and whose success was the byproduct of luck (ie, Gavin Floyd). As I often advocate everyone do, I checked ERA/FIP splits and tried to avoid guys whose ERAs didn't quite match up with their FIPs. I strongly believe that guys who outperform their FIPs - like Johan Santana - even if they are great, will be incredibly overvalued. Furthermore, I checked FIP to find guys who UNDERPERFORMED their abilities last year. I hunted down guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Javier Vazquez, who posted quality FIPS below 4, but ERAs upwards of 4.5. Guys like Vazquez, who get an "unclutch" label, are perfectly undervalued targets.
Following FIP, I looked at the Defensive Efficiency (a metric that analyzes how efficient teams are at converting balls put into play into outs) and a team's cumulative fielding runs above/below average (broken down by infield, outfield and whole team). The goal here was to find out which teams are very good, average and below average at fielding. By determining this, I could figure out which pitchers could reasonably outperform/underperform their FIPs for 2009. I can confidently state that a guy like James Shields -- a groundball pitcher backed by the game's best defensive infields -- is going to continue to outperform his already quality FIP going forward. At the same time, I question whether or not the Rockie's defense (amongst other factors) provides enough coverage to match Ubaldo Jimenez's quality peripherals to his ERA.
I then looked at player's Left On Base Percentages (LOB%) to see whether or not which pitcher's ERAs were strongly biased due to positive/negative luck. Since non-HR hits are incredibly situational, you have to expect a lot of regression towards the mean in a player's LOB% from year to year. Guys with large FIP/ERA splits like Jonathan Sanchez -- who is on a defensively challenged team, but also posted an unlucky 67.5 LOB% (league average is 72.5%) -- scream value to me. At the same time, Johan Santana's declining peripherals and league leading 82.6 LOB% tells me that not only would I be overpaying for Santana, but that his "return to form" year may have not actually been a return to form.
After FIP, Fielding Runs and LOB%, I looked at guys based on K/9 rates. I figure that if I am going to excel in any category, I want it to be the one pitchers have the most control over. Teams can unexpectedly suck (low Wins total), while Save Opps, WHIP (which is comprised of HITS) and ERA are all situational. Pitchers have absolute control over only exactly three things: strikeouts, walks and home runs. Thus, choosing high K guys is the most logical thing to do. Plus, guys with higher K rates tend to perform closer to their FIPs due to their "ability to get out of jams" without relying on the defense behind them. In terms of pitching K/9 is pretty consistent, which is important to a drafting strategy of value retention (minimizing risk).
Finally, I checked out how abused pitchers were last year to decide whether or not I wanted to take on the risk of injury by drafting them. Young pitchers (under 26) who had huge inning leaps (Cole Hamels increased his workload by 44 innings last year) or heavy workloads (Tim Lincecum lead the league in PAP points) scare me -- especially if they go in the top 6 rounds. As I pointed out in my analysis of John Danks,
As should be evident by my picks of Dan Haren (Dr. Consistent), Javier Vazquez, Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo, Erik Bedard, Jonathan Sanchez, Manny Parra and Brandon Morrow should indicate, I stuck pretty closely to my value retention strategy. The only high risk, late round guy I pulled was Morrow -- largely because he's got so much upside and will either be a quality starter or the team's closers.
As you should also already know by now, I hate closers, so it shouldn't surprise you that I picked up Jason Motte, Leo Nunez and Chad Qualls to supplement Jose Valverde -- who is one of the best RPs in baseball and one of the very few closers (the others being Joe Nathan, Kerry Wood, Jonathan Broxton and maybe Heath Bell) I would ever consider drafting "early."
Go know and use my knowledge, dear child.
So my strategy for drafting starting pitchers was firmly placed on the following dynamics:
1) FIP and xFIP
2) D/E and Aggregate Fielding Runs
3) LOB%
4) K/9
5) PAP and the Verducci Effect
I focused on FIP for obvious reasons. I wanted to know whose success was "for real" (ie, Dan Haren) and whose success was the byproduct of luck (ie, Gavin Floyd). As I often advocate everyone do, I checked ERA/FIP splits and tried to avoid guys whose ERAs didn't quite match up with their FIPs. I strongly believe that guys who outperform their FIPs - like Johan Santana - even if they are great, will be incredibly overvalued. Furthermore, I checked FIP to find guys who UNDERPERFORMED their abilities last year. I hunted down guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Javier Vazquez, who posted quality FIPS below 4, but ERAs upwards of 4.5. Guys like Vazquez, who get an "unclutch" label, are perfectly undervalued targets.
Following FIP, I looked at the Defensive Efficiency (a metric that analyzes how efficient teams are at converting balls put into play into outs) and a team's cumulative fielding runs above/below average (broken down by infield, outfield and whole team). The goal here was to find out which teams are very good, average and below average at fielding. By determining this, I could figure out which pitchers could reasonably outperform/underperform their FIPs for 2009. I can confidently state that a guy like James Shields -- a groundball pitcher backed by the game's best defensive infields -- is going to continue to outperform his already quality FIP going forward. At the same time, I question whether or not the Rockie's defense (amongst other factors) provides enough coverage to match Ubaldo Jimenez's quality peripherals to his ERA.
I then looked at player's Left On Base Percentages (LOB%) to see whether or not which pitcher's ERAs were strongly biased due to positive/negative luck. Since non-HR hits are incredibly situational, you have to expect a lot of regression towards the mean in a player's LOB% from year to year. Guys with large FIP/ERA splits like Jonathan Sanchez -- who is on a defensively challenged team, but also posted an unlucky 67.5 LOB% (league average is 72.5%) -- scream value to me. At the same time, Johan Santana's declining peripherals and league leading 82.6 LOB% tells me that not only would I be overpaying for Santana, but that his "return to form" year may have not actually been a return to form.
After FIP, Fielding Runs and LOB%, I looked at guys based on K/9 rates. I figure that if I am going to excel in any category, I want it to be the one pitchers have the most control over. Teams can unexpectedly suck (low Wins total), while Save Opps, WHIP (which is comprised of HITS) and ERA are all situational. Pitchers have absolute control over only exactly three things: strikeouts, walks and home runs. Thus, choosing high K guys is the most logical thing to do. Plus, guys with higher K rates tend to perform closer to their FIPs due to their "ability to get out of jams" without relying on the defense behind them. In terms of pitching K/9 is pretty consistent, which is important to a drafting strategy of value retention (minimizing risk).
Finally, I checked out how abused pitchers were last year to decide whether or not I wanted to take on the risk of injury by drafting them. Young pitchers (under 26) who had huge inning leaps (Cole Hamels increased his workload by 44 innings last year) or heavy workloads (Tim Lincecum lead the league in PAP points) scare me -- especially if they go in the top 6 rounds. As I pointed out in my analysis of John Danks,
Baseball Prospectus has shown, pitchers are most brittle before the age of 24 and after the age of 35. Tom Verducci observed that pitchers under the age of 25 who increase their seasonal workload by more than 25-30 innings in a single season are the most susceptible to injury the following year.I adhere strongly to that data.
As should be evident by my picks of Dan Haren (Dr. Consistent), Javier Vazquez, Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo, Erik Bedard, Jonathan Sanchez, Manny Parra and Brandon Morrow should indicate, I stuck pretty closely to my value retention strategy. The only high risk, late round guy I pulled was Morrow -- largely because he's got so much upside and will either be a quality starter or the team's closers.
As you should also already know by now, I hate closers, so it shouldn't surprise you that I picked up Jason Motte, Leo Nunez and Chad Qualls to supplement Jose Valverde -- who is one of the best RPs in baseball and one of the very few closers (the others being Joe Nathan, Kerry Wood, Jonathan Broxton and maybe Heath Bell) I would ever consider drafting "early."
Go know and use my knowledge, dear child.
David "MVP" Eckstein Is A Crappy Arguer
I have no problem with arguing. This is a sports blog and it's expected that we all share our sports opinion on different topics. And as expected, we're not all going to agree on the opinions we have. And that's perfectly fine. It's fine that in a post we express something and then someone disagrees with that opinion in the comments. But there is most certainly a right way and a wrong day to comment. Eckstein does this the wrong way.
If you've never heard of logical fallacies, a fallacy is an argument which may convince others but is not logically sound. Note that the truth of the conclusions of an argument does not determine whether the argument is a fallacy - it is the argument which is incorrect. Using basic LSAT terms, in every argument there is a conclusion, evidence, and an assumption. The conclusion is the final statement of fact (i.e. Kevin Youkilis will be better than Carlos Pena next year), the evidence is data to prove the conclusion (i.e. Carlos Pena has been injury prone recently therefore he won't produce like he can. Also, Youk has improved every year he has been in the majors), and the assumption is what bridges the evidence and the conclusion and this is often unstated (i.e. Using what a player had done in the past is a good way to measure how the player has done in the future). This is the right way to make an argument. This is also something that myself, The "Bright" One, and Cubsfan4evr have done often.
But not David "MVP" Eckstein.
He uses logical fallacies often to destroy evidences and create assumption in order to prove a conclusion. And this is bullshit. The reason fallacies are bad is because they destroy credibility to arguments and blur truth from being known.
Two recent fallacies Ecketin has committed recently, The Red Herring and Ad Hominem.
The Red Herring fallacy is where a person takes a trivial point of an argument and argues that trivial point in order to create a contradictory conclusion to the original arguers main conclusion(done in "Random White Sox Notes")
The Ad Hominem fallacy is where a person attacks the arguer instead of the argument. Politicians do this all the time, like calling Obama a Muslim. (done in "Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays)
These are just two examples and I'm sure more have been done. Frankly, I'm sick of it. Eckstein uses blinders when reading posts and uses fallacies to win arguments. Eckstein, you try to defeat the arguer instead of trying to win the argument and I'm calling you out on it.
By Eckstein always using fallacies, it beings down the credibility of this blog. You're actions and words affect the other three authors.
Please stop doing this. I have no problem with arguing against what everyone says but stop doing what you normally do to win almost every argument I've seen you enter.
Also, please stop putting your name as a label for every post. It's arrogant and annoying. I've asked you to stop this once before and if you continue, then I'm going to start putting your name as a label for all my posts.
Now despite my harsh tone and words, I mean no disrespect to Eckstein personally. This sole focus of this post is aimed at the specific actions that you, Eckstein, do in relation to your arguing skills and post labels, and that's it.
Thank you and have a great day.
If you've never heard of logical fallacies, a fallacy is an argument which may convince others but is not logically sound. Note that the truth of the conclusions of an argument does not determine whether the argument is a fallacy - it is the argument which is incorrect. Using basic LSAT terms, in every argument there is a conclusion, evidence, and an assumption. The conclusion is the final statement of fact (i.e. Kevin Youkilis will be better than Carlos Pena next year), the evidence is data to prove the conclusion (i.e. Carlos Pena has been injury prone recently therefore he won't produce like he can. Also, Youk has improved every year he has been in the majors), and the assumption is what bridges the evidence and the conclusion and this is often unstated (i.e. Using what a player had done in the past is a good way to measure how the player has done in the future). This is the right way to make an argument. This is also something that myself, The "Bright" One, and Cubsfan4evr have done often.
But not David "MVP" Eckstein.
He uses logical fallacies often to destroy evidences and create assumption in order to prove a conclusion. And this is bullshit. The reason fallacies are bad is because they destroy credibility to arguments and blur truth from being known.
Two recent fallacies Ecketin has committed recently, The Red Herring and Ad Hominem.
The Red Herring fallacy is where a person takes a trivial point of an argument and argues that trivial point in order to create a contradictory conclusion to the original arguers main conclusion(done in "Random White Sox Notes")
The Ad Hominem fallacy is where a person attacks the arguer instead of the argument. Politicians do this all the time, like calling Obama a Muslim. (done in "Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays)
These are just two examples and I'm sure more have been done. Frankly, I'm sick of it. Eckstein uses blinders when reading posts and uses fallacies to win arguments. Eckstein, you try to defeat the arguer instead of trying to win the argument and I'm calling you out on it.
By Eckstein always using fallacies, it beings down the credibility of this blog. You're actions and words affect the other three authors.
Please stop doing this. I have no problem with arguing against what everyone says but stop doing what you normally do to win almost every argument I've seen you enter.
Also, please stop putting your name as a label for every post. It's arrogant and annoying. I've asked you to stop this once before and if you continue, then I'm going to start putting your name as a label for all my posts.
Now despite my harsh tone and words, I mean no disrespect to Eckstein personally. This sole focus of this post is aimed at the specific actions that you, Eckstein, do in relation to your arguing skills and post labels, and that's it.
Thank you and have a great day.
The Yankees HAVE Improved. Shit.
This post is in relation to David "MVP" Eckstein's December 24th, 2008 post entitled "The 2008 Yankees" and his viewpoint on this in posts after this blog. His contention is that the free-agent signings the Yankees now have do not improve the team all that much from the departures the team had.
First point: Mark Tiexeira replacing Jason Giambi. Looking the the offensive numbers one sees that actually this is not the biggest improvement. Last year, Giambi had this stat line: .373/.502/.875 with 32 HRs. Tex's stat line is predicted to be this: .404/.564/ .969 with with 39 HRs. While there is a difference between the HR and OBS, in reality, this disparity is not as big as public perception make it out to be. But here's the thing, Tex is a gold glove defender and is only like 29 years old. Giambi was an old fuck who couldn't move that well. So the Yankees do get an improvement both offensively and defensively which could tack on at least one more win to their 88/89 win season last year.
Second point: Nick Swisher replaced Bobby Abreu. This is a valid point. Bobby Abreu walked a shit ton (.371 OBS last year) and has decent power and still probably better at walking, hitting for power, and defense. So I'll give Ecksetin that here is not an improvement. But in the Yankees defense, it was never meant to be and they could have done a lot worse.
Third Point: AJ Burnett replaces Mike Mussina. Last year, Mussina had one of his best years getting 20 wins, having a 3.74 ERA, and having a 4.84 K/BB ratio. This is getting replaced with this projected stat line: 15 wins, 3.98 ERA, and 2.71 K/BB with about 10 less IP. Again, this is not an improvement and again, another valid point. But here's the thing, Mussina was the ace of the staff last year and Burnett's only the 2nd guy in the rotation and he's NOT the ace.
Fourth Point: CC Sabathia was worked too hard during the end of the year and this will manifest itself with poor performance while Sabathia is in pinstripes. Again, I can take this as a valid point considering how shitty did Sabathia in like his first maybe 7 starts? I don't but in the beginning he did shit. However, after this, he was amazing. Sabathia pitched well before he went to Milwaukee and amazing once he got there. There's no reason that the vast majority of the season that CC can't be great. Here's his projected stat line: 19 wins, 3.33 ERA, 231 K, 4.44 K/BB ratio, and in 243 innings. You're gonna tell me that's not an improvement for a team?
MY REBUTTAL
The thing that Eckstein overlooks is that the improvements of this team come from more than just off-season free agent signings, they come internally as well. He's other areas where the Yankees with improve.
Xavier Nady: This guy is a damn fine baseball player and a player that helps with their offensive woes. In recent years with Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon were the outfield, the Yanks didn't really have an outfield because these players were oft injured. With Nady (and Swisher) the Yankees finally have depth and talent in the outfield. And this year, Nady will be on the team for an entire year to help this club instead of just half of one.
A-Rod: Remember, this is from a purely objective, on-the-field basis. Last year, A Rod had a down here (if that's possible for him considering he was 2nd in OPS in the AL last year). And this year, he's expected to "rebound". He is projected to get 44 HRs as opposed to his 35 last year and have an OPS 17 points higher than it was last year. His performance should improve thus helping this offense.
Chien-Ming Wang: Wang only pitched 95 innings last year. This was because of a freak injury when Wang was rounding home after playing some NL team. Wang should log significant innings this year and there's no reason to think he can't pitch throughout a 162 game season, something he didn't do last year.
Joba Chamberlian: This year he'll be in the rotation all year. Last year, he started off in the bullpen, then went down to AAA, then was in the starting rotation, and then back in the bullpen. This year, he'll be in the rotation. For sure. Chamberlian needed AAA help and some experience to fully get into the groove of being a full time starter, and watching him last year, he seemed to get it. With a year under his belt and seemingly developed, Chamberlian should be much better than he was last year.
A rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Chamberlian and Pettitte is still better than a 2008 rotation that included Mussina, Pettitte, Darrell Rasner with Chamberlian, Wang, Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Carl Pavano getting significant starting time as well.
Now I'm not saying in this post that the Yankees will make the playoffs or anything like that. I am however saying that David "MVP" Eckstein is, hmmm how to word this nicely wrong?, to think the Yankees can't or won't be better than their 2008 counterparts.
First point: Mark Tiexeira replacing Jason Giambi. Looking the the offensive numbers one sees that actually this is not the biggest improvement. Last year, Giambi had this stat line: .373/.502/.875 with 32 HRs. Tex's stat line is predicted to be this: .404/.564/ .969 with with 39 HRs. While there is a difference between the HR and OBS, in reality, this disparity is not as big as public perception make it out to be. But here's the thing, Tex is a gold glove defender and is only like 29 years old. Giambi was an old fuck who couldn't move that well. So the Yankees do get an improvement both offensively and defensively which could tack on at least one more win to their 88/89 win season last year.
Second point: Nick Swisher replaced Bobby Abreu. This is a valid point. Bobby Abreu walked a shit ton (.371 OBS last year) and has decent power and still probably better at walking, hitting for power, and defense. So I'll give Ecksetin that here is not an improvement. But in the Yankees defense, it was never meant to be and they could have done a lot worse.
Third Point: AJ Burnett replaces Mike Mussina. Last year, Mussina had one of his best years getting 20 wins, having a 3.74 ERA, and having a 4.84 K/BB ratio. This is getting replaced with this projected stat line: 15 wins, 3.98 ERA, and 2.71 K/BB with about 10 less IP. Again, this is not an improvement and again, another valid point. But here's the thing, Mussina was the ace of the staff last year and Burnett's only the 2nd guy in the rotation and he's NOT the ace.
Fourth Point: CC Sabathia was worked too hard during the end of the year and this will manifest itself with poor performance while Sabathia is in pinstripes. Again, I can take this as a valid point considering how shitty did Sabathia in like his first maybe 7 starts? I don't but in the beginning he did shit. However, after this, he was amazing. Sabathia pitched well before he went to Milwaukee and amazing once he got there. There's no reason that the vast majority of the season that CC can't be great. Here's his projected stat line: 19 wins, 3.33 ERA, 231 K, 4.44 K/BB ratio, and in 243 innings. You're gonna tell me that's not an improvement for a team?
MY REBUTTAL
The thing that Eckstein overlooks is that the improvements of this team come from more than just off-season free agent signings, they come internally as well. He's other areas where the Yankees with improve.
Xavier Nady: This guy is a damn fine baseball player and a player that helps with their offensive woes. In recent years with Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon were the outfield, the Yanks didn't really have an outfield because these players were oft injured. With Nady (and Swisher) the Yankees finally have depth and talent in the outfield. And this year, Nady will be on the team for an entire year to help this club instead of just half of one.
A-Rod: Remember, this is from a purely objective, on-the-field basis. Last year, A Rod had a down here (if that's possible for him considering he was 2nd in OPS in the AL last year). And this year, he's expected to "rebound". He is projected to get 44 HRs as opposed to his 35 last year and have an OPS 17 points higher than it was last year. His performance should improve thus helping this offense.
Chien-Ming Wang: Wang only pitched 95 innings last year. This was because of a freak injury when Wang was rounding home after playing some NL team. Wang should log significant innings this year and there's no reason to think he can't pitch throughout a 162 game season, something he didn't do last year.
Joba Chamberlian: This year he'll be in the rotation all year. Last year, he started off in the bullpen, then went down to AAA, then was in the starting rotation, and then back in the bullpen. This year, he'll be in the rotation. For sure. Chamberlian needed AAA help and some experience to fully get into the groove of being a full time starter, and watching him last year, he seemed to get it. With a year under his belt and seemingly developed, Chamberlian should be much better than he was last year.
A rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Chamberlian and Pettitte is still better than a 2008 rotation that included Mussina, Pettitte, Darrell Rasner with Chamberlian, Wang, Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Carl Pavano getting significant starting time as well.
Now I'm not saying in this post that the Yankees will make the playoffs or anything like that. I am however saying that David "MVP" Eckstein is, hmmm how to word this nicely wrong?, to think the Yankees can't or won't be better than their 2008 counterparts.
