What's The Worst Run NFL Franchise?

So now that my third semester of law school is done and that I have accepted a position at a law firm in the city called Ben Jarvis Green Ellis, I have plenty of time to do what I enjoy. I am good at three things: Fighting, screwing, and blogging about sports news. I've already done one of those today, so what's the other going to be? Huh? Anyways, I have a laundry list of posts I would like to do and now I actually have time to do them as well as getting back to write some Box Score Tonight's. If you have anything you'd like to see myself or GOI rant or talk about feel free to comment or send us an e-mail at gameofinchesblog@gmail.com. But since nobody ever does, I'm just gonna write about what I want to.

And the first topic I'd like to discuss in what I'll call my Winter Break Fire Side Chats (BOOM, that's right, an FDR reference) is what is the worst run NFL franchise? It's a question I've posed on many podcasts but I'd like to devote a full discussion to this topic. If you had asked me this even six weeks ago I would have said the Oakland Raiders because despite all the great things Al Davis has done for Oakland and for football, he has become senile and moronic with his decision making in the post Rich Gannon era. While the Raaaaiiiiders *think Chris Berman saying this* are in this discussion, I don't think they're the clear cut favorite anymore- mainly because they're winning games. So here's my list

1) Washington Redskins

Geez, where to begin. OK, so the Redskins started off the off season with a great decision in hiring Mike Shanahan. And then they trade a second round and either a third or fourth round pick to get Donovan McNabb. At the time, this seemed like a great idea because then-QB Jason Campbell seemed to be going nowhere. However, this turned out to be an awful decision because McNabb is old and washed up and seems to not be good anymore. AND THEN they give a 34 year old McNabb a five year contract extension with $40 million in guaranteed money. AND THEN Rex Grossman has to finish a game versus the Detroit Lions (in which Grossman soon fumbles and Donkey Kong Suh gets a TD) AND THEN they lose to the Detroit Lions AND THEN there are talks that Grossman will soon become the starter. This series of events alone is enough to make the Redskins earn a spot on this list, but this is just the quarterback problem they have.

Redskins owner Dan Snyder does not know how to run a football team and keeps giving huge contracts to big names players without (or just not successfully) looking at the players talent. And Donovan McNabb is just one example, but not even the best example on the team. The epitome of this is Albert Haynesworth. A player who has not only the richest contract of any defensive player but has one of the richest NFL contracts in its history. Yet this same player is one who refuses to start because he won't play in a 3-4 system and one, when on the field, isn't that good.

There's clearly a chemistry element that needs to be present when playing a team sport like football and Dan Snyder and this organization clearly seems to be lacking this concept- and as a result, he has put a poor product on the field.

So for channeling your inner Al Davis and paying for name brand recognition and not paying for talent and for not spending money smartly, the Redskins earn the number one spot on this list.

2) Denver Broncos

Bill Belichick is the greatest NFL coach currently coaching and might be the best NFL head coach of all time. His teams consistently make the playoffs, go far in the playoffs and oh yeah, he has three rings out of his four trips. This is a man who clearly knows his shit. His former assistants however have not panned out so well. After seeming failures in Eric Mangini, Romeo Crennel, and Charlie Weis, the Broncos decided to make it oh-for-four by hiring Josh McDaniels. McDaniels has since been fired (and rightfully so) but his brief stint on this team has left a long lasting negative impact.

I'm not going to get into whether drafting Tim Tebow in the first round was a good or not. While the pick was universally frowned upon as a bad decision, if Tebow is the next Michael Vick, then it was a fantastic decision. But since we haven't really seen Tebow play, I'm not going to judge one way or another. I'm also not going to fault them for trading away Peyton Hillis. Knowshon Moreno looks really good and is their back of the future. However, what I will judge the Broncos on is trading away two top 12 (at minimum) talented players at their position in Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler.

When McDaniels first got to Denver, he wanted to trade for Matt Cassel- his QB up in New England. That inherently is fine because as a coach, you want YOUR players to help run YOUR system. But when you have Jay Cutler, who had just come off of a Pro Bowl year and is a great young talent that cost your franchise a first round pick, there's no need to even think about trading for Matt Cassel. Now I love what Cassel is doing playing for the Kansas City Patriots, but when you have a franchise quarterback on your side, you shut your mouth and thank your lucky stars. Plus, with what Kyle Orton is doing in Denver, it's clear whatever system they have up there can be implemented by any high level quarterback. Now as a Bears fan I thank McDaniels and the Broncos, but if I were a Denver fan, I would be pissed.

Then, a year later, they trade Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall. Marshall was a bit more justifiable because of his off the field issues but (a) I don't read a thing about his off the field issues in Miami now and (b) those issues never affected his game. Marshall went out and just was a baller. And then to top it all off, one of the picks Denver got from Miami for Marshall they used on a wide receiver. Now while I have always had a man crush on former Illinois alum Brandon Lloyd since I saw him briefly play in Chicago, but he doesn't hold a candle talent-wise to Marshall. And I also like Kyle Orton from a talent perspective, but he's also nowhere close to Jay Cutler.

For letting Josh McDaniels run your team and run your franchise into the ground you have earned a spot on this list. Congratulations Denver!

3) Arizona Cardinals

I am still upset that the Cardinals released Matt Leinart. I hate Leinart because of the constant attention he got while at USC, but this past year has made me a "Leinart Guy." While I'm saddened to learn that being benched and watching Kurt Warner play did not help Leinart with his off the field problems, as Ben Roethlisberger and Vince Young has showed, you can have off the field problems and perform at a high level on the field. Although you can get away with decisions like releasing Leinart if you have really good back ups. However, Derek Anderson is not "really good". And what's worst of all, everybody knew how bad Derek Anderson was and Arizona should have known how bad Derek Anderson was. You can fix off the problems (if it even becomes a problem on the field) but you can't fix bad talent- especially at the quarterback position.

Although this is not the only bad thing the Cardinals have done. The Cardinals deserve some flack for drafting Beanie Wells with their first overall pick a few years back. Royally messing up first round picks means you are going to get a spot on this list (don't worry Chicago, you'll be coming up soon). Beanie Wells was a great talent in college and still has the physical tools to be a good football player, but he has always had a body of glass and you can't take a consistent injury risk with your first overall pick. Fantasy players have been aware of this concept for years and years and the Cardinals should have known this as well.

And for that Arizona, you deserve to be last place in the worst division in all of professional sports and to earn a spot on this list.

4) Chicago Bears

It's hard to criticize a team that will probably win their division and get a first round bye, but here I go. Maybe I'm just a typical self-deprecating Bears fan but Chicago does not have a good organization. Now they have made some great decisions in the past few years like trading for Jay Cutler, signing Julies Peppers, and hiring Mike Martz. But they have made some awful ones as well that I can't overlook.

Here's a list of the Bears first pick in recent years: Major Wright (3rd round), Jarron Gilbert (3rd round), Chris Williams, Greg Olson, Danieal Manning (2nd round), and Cedric Benson. The only one of these selections I like is Manning and even he's just a role player. I know TBO will fight me on this but I don't think Greg Olson's all that. And while Chris Williams was on the board Pro Bowl lineman Jeff Otah was sitting there for the Bears disposal. I could go on and on, but needless to say, the Bears are horrible at drafting top tiered talent and that's a major indicator of how good a franchise is. As with any professional sport, it's extremely hard to sustain constant success with poor drafting choices (see Beane, Billy). So when a team constantly drafts poorly, it's probably a good indicator of how well that team will do in the future.

I also dislike the fact that Lovie Smith is still the team's head coach. TBO brought up a good point on a recent podcast that the players love Lovie and play for Lovie, and after watching teams like Minnesota this year, that's an extremely important quality for a coach to have. But at the same time, the head coach is the main facilitator and the main coordinator on his team. So when your head coach is bad at this, it makes for a frustrating experience. The main example of this is the Cover-2/Tampa-2 defense. Lovie loves his Cover-2 defense. Now it's worked well with Julius Peppers this year, but we really don't have the full roster for it to work anymore and his refusal to change this is not a good sign for a head coach. This was a man that everybody universally hated and wanted gone 11 months ago and the team realized this, and still kept him on.

Now recently the power of control has been taken out of the hands of Lovie. Martz seems to have full control over this offense and since the Bob Babich/puppet master experience, Rod Marinelli has a sturdy handle on this defense. And I'm pretty sure after the Adam Archuleta and Orlando Pace fiascoes, the team took control away from Lovie from choosing his former Rams players as well.

So for having a poorly managed front office, drafting poorly, and keeping a bad head coach on the team just for money purposes, the Chicago Bears earn a spot on this list.

5) Oakland Raiders

Going along the theme of keeping on bad head coaches, Raiders head coach Tom Cable assaulted a player and still kept his job. And again, a team heading in the right direction so I'm actually going to lay off of them (ish), but they've still made some awful awful awful awful awful decisions in the past. This is the team that still drafted JaMarcus Russell with the number one overall pick. Rex Grossman is still is league and yet Russell is not. I think that goes to show you what kind of player Russell is. This is the team that drafted Darrius Heyword-Bey over Michael Crabtree. Now I understand Crabtree is not an elite wide out (as I'm sure many fantasy owners can tell us) but he's light years ahead of where Bey is. This is still the team that gave up a first round pick for Richard Seymour. Now as good as Seymour is, he's not worth a first round pick and the massive contract he received. This is still the team that gave no name defensive tackle Tommy Kelly the largest contract (at the time) to a defensive tackle.

Now I would have put drafting Darren Mcfadden on this list but he seems to be worth the pick now. I also like Jason Campbell and he's doing very well for this team. And this team seems to be clicking and gelling really well so as much shit as I give Al Davis (mostly justifiably), he gets big ups for how well this team is playing.

But for a recent history of poor choice after poor choice after poor choice, the Oakland Raiders deserve a spot on this list.

6) New York Jets

This team had made a lot of decisions in the past two years and a lot of them are really good ones. The hiring of Rex Ryan is a great decision and I enjoy him as a head coach. This team has a great defense led by one of the greatest defensive players currently playing the game in Darrelle Revis. I like that Ryan brought Bart Scott over with him and that they traded for half of the best relatives in football in Antonio Cromartie. I like the fact that this franchise knows the important of lines- especially the offensive line. A fact my Chicago Bears seemed to have forgotten about (another strike against them). Yet there are a handful of these decisions- all on the offensive side of the ball- that helps the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets earn a spot on this list.

Oh boy, where to begin. I guess we'll go with first off drafting the most injury prone collegiate running back ever in Joe McKnight. And then choosing McKnight over Danny Woodhead to make your team. Hey Jets, the New England Patriots also watched Hard Knocks along with the rest of us and knew like the rest of us that Danny Woodhead was good. Then, you allowed Woodhead to destroy you on Monday Night Football.

Next, we get to another running back in L.T. (I only use Tomlinson's initials because (a) good lawd the man has a really long name and (b) Do you know how to spell his first name, because I sure as hell do not. But I digress.) At the beginning of the year, it looked like Tomlinson was the better back than former Pro Bowler for the Jets Thomas Jones. Both men essentially got the same contract, but L.T. looked like it was worth it to release Jones. But now nine weeks later, this is not true. Tomlinson looks old and worn down and has been consistently losing carries (and rightfully so) to Shonn Greene. Whereas Jones looks awesome and even while playing with a top 5 running back in Jamaal Charles is still putting up numbers and being extremely effective.

Then, we get to Mark Sanchez. Poor poor Mark Sanchez. Now I saw Sanchez play a handful amount at the beginning of the year and he looked pretty good to me. While I heard everybody and their mother talk about Sanchez's poor accuracy, he looked pretty good to me. His decision making also greatly improved as he was throwing MUCH less picks. But like L.T. the season wore on and he was exposed. Unlike his fellow draft mate and first round draft pick Josh Freeman, Sanchez seemed to regress. His completion percentage has stayed consistent throughout his short pro career (which is a bad sign, you'd like to see that improve- especially considering how low Sanchez started out at), but the interceptions starting coming back. I have legitimate concerns about Sanchez's career going forward and that's not good news for a 5th overall selection from 2009. And considering how important a QB is to a team, especially a Super Bowl ready team, is a major no-no.

Lastly, we get to the Jets receivers. While the talent of Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards is far superior than that of Chansi Stuckey and Jerricho Cotchery, and it really didn't cost the franchise a whole lot to get these guys, I think they're a bad fit to be paired with Sanchez. For a guy who has accuracy questions, pairing him with two guys with horrible hands and catch rates and high drop rates is a bad idea. I think for Sanchez, a guy like Earl Bennett of Davone Bess would be better suited to complement Sanchez's strengths. I know Cotchery is supposed to be that guy and I know Holmes and Cotchery have dropped and missed a crap ton of easy passes to give people more of an excuse to hate on Sanchez, but I think this receiving corps is a good one, just not a good one for Mark Sanchez.

So for a constant string of bad decisions to hurt your offense, the New York Jets round out this list.

P.S. I know one of the three GOI readers is a HUGE Jets fan so I'm sorry to call out your team. But I also called out my team as well, so....

Runner's Up: San Francisco 49ers (for drafting Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers), Carolina Panthers (have you seen their roster?)

Some of the best organizations out there....

1) New England Patriots

Call me a homer but Bill Belichick is probably the smartest guy in football and is making an offense consisting of Deion Branch and Danny Woodhead and is Randy Moss-less look like The Greatest Show On Turf. And I can't name you more than two players on this defense yet they look amazing right now.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers

Dick LeBeau is a defensive genius which automatically boosts the value of your franchise. And they have offensive weapons galore with a workhorse stud in Rashard Mendenhall, an elite quarterback, above average wide outs like Hines Ward and a stud in Mike Wallace. They traded away their best wide receiver last year and still that offense hasn't missed a beat. They draft well, they play well, and they win Super Bowls.

3) Philadelphia Eagles

They just traded away their franchise quarterback and the face of their team Donovan McNabb to a division rival which turned out to be a double whammy. Not only do they get picks and not have to start McNabb, but a team in their division gets stuck with a crappy QB. They get Michael Vick for pennies, insert him in their great system, and he'll probably win the MVP this year. They draft well with guys like LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, and DeSean Jackson. They have a great defense and is keeping Jim Johnson's legacy in tact and Andy Reid knows football. Sure, they don't make it to Super Bowls like they should, but making the playoffs and going as far as they do year after year after year is a great accomplishment.

I'm also going to overlook the fact that they gave Kevin Kolb a huge contract to sit on the bench. Everyone gets ONE mulligan.

ESPN Has Actually Fired Joe Morgan

Probably one of the greatest baseballl websites ever and part of the reason we here at GOI decided to write was because of FJM, Fire Joe Morgan for short. I remember Cubsfan telling me he first went to firejoemorgan.com because he thought it was a petition to get the great second baseman/AWFUL commentator Joe Morgan off of ESPN. Even though FJM hasn't been writing for about two years now, they finally got their wish.

According to a story by ESPN which you can read here, Joe Morgan will no longer be working for ESPN. Here's an excerpt from the article

Morgan's contract is expiring and he will not be renewed

While I have no proof of this, I truly believe this is because of the "Moneyball" movement that has not only taken bloggers and casual fans by storm, but also the baseball community. No longer are "wins" being used to measure Cy Young voters (see Grienke, Zach) and no longer is a team making the playoffs a prerequisite to win an MVP (see Pujols, Machine)

In support for Dustin Pedroia's MVP candidacy, Buster Olney was using "Runs Created" and baseball writers are starting to use OPS and WAR over RBI's and BA to analyze a player's worth.

I think ESPN is wise to this long awaited and long over due change and part of this movement is to get rid of Joe Morgan- who has become the poster child for the old way of thinking.

But that's just my theory. Unfortunately Morgan had to wait for his contract to expire (unlike Steve Phillips who we luckily got rid of because he's a piggy chaser) but he's gone nonetheless.

I wish you all the best on a personal level, but please don't ever analyze baseball ever again.

Things I Got Right (And Wrong)

So we're about halfway through the NFL season and it's time now to boost my ego, but mainly show my humility.

THINGS I GOT RIGHT

Dressing up as Kenny Powers for Halloween

Actual Football
- Liking the Kansas City Chiefs. On my two part podcast I said Chiefs would be second in their division. While they probably would win it, I was on board the Kansas City bandwagon WAY before everyone else was. At a time where everybody was picking the Oakland Raiders to be good and finish behind the Chargers, I was picking the Chiefs. Part of my Week One slaughter of Cubsfan and TBO was me picking the Chiefs to beat the Chargers at Arrowhead- which they did.

- Liking the Houston Texans. I'm still not 100% convinced they'll make the playoffs (although I like them a lot) I did however predict their Week One domination of the Colts.

- Liking the phrase: I'm a man! I'm 40!

Fantasy Football
Players I Said To Stay Away From And You Should Have
- Ryan Matthews
- Jahvid Best
- CJ Spiller
- Ronny Cedeno
- Shonn Green
- Derrick Mason
- NYJ Receivers

Free Agent Pick Ups I Told You About
- Brandon Lloyd (Week One)
- Peyton Hillis (Week One)
- Mark Clayton (Week One)
- LeBron James (offseason)
- Michael Vick (duh!)
- Tony Moeaki (Week Two)
- Marshawn Lynch (Week Two)

Guys I Drafted So I Clearly Liked
- LaDanian Tomlinson
- Ahmad Bradshaw
- Frank Gore
- Gaines Adams
- Steve Breaston
- Arain Foster (I'm going to take SOME credit for this because Cubsfan and I got into a fierce bidding war over Foster. But I did lose out on him)

Board Bets
- Liking Eddie Royal over Jabar Gaffney and Demarious Thomas
- Liking Larry Fitzgerald over Randy Moss
- Liking Chocolate Milk over Strawberry Milk
- Liking Arian Foster over Steve Slaton (TBO tried to make this Board Bet with me as well)
- Liking Johnny Knox over Devin Aromashodu

Oh, and right now I'm first in total points (second overall) in the 14 team GOI league and currently leading TBO and Cubsfan in the Pigskin Pick Em league.

THINGS I GOT WRONG

Actual Football

- Thinking the Bears had talent

- Claiming the Indianapolis Colts would miss the playoffs. I did clarify that it was based upon nothing and only because I'm superstitious and thought Super Bowl losers don't make it back to the playoffs, but I looked like I'm about to proven wrong.

- Claiming the 49ers and Cowboys would win their division. I was WAY off on this one considering both team sucks more than a Thai hooker.

Fantasy Football
Guys I Liked But Are Not Very Good (Or Bad Values)
- Chris Johnson
- Michael Turner
- Brandon Marshall
- Applebees' 2 for $20 deal
- Chad Henne
- Tom Brady
- Justin Forsett
- DeAngelo Williams/ Jonathan Stewart

Guys I Was WAY Off Base About
- I ranked Joe Flacco as my number 6 quarterback coming into the year and Ray Rice as my number 3 running back. Both guys suck and are awful values
- I HATED Darren McFadden and even thought Michael Bush would be better.
- I loved Felix Jones and thought he would be the next Ray Rice. Turns out he's shittier than Ray Rice- this year
- Anthony Gonzalez. I wrote an entire post about A-Gon and thought he would be better than both Collie and Garcon.
- Thinking I could actually jump that shark on my water skis.
- Listing only 15 QBs and said if you have to have any other QB you'd be fucked. But QBs I left off the list- Kyle Orton, Josh Freeman, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Guys I left on the list: Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne.
- I said that Phillip Rivers will probably not get his numbers with no legit wide out. Turns out he's on pace to destroy Dan Marino's single season passing yards record.
- Tellings fans (and doing so myself) to bench Patriots Randy Moss against Darelle Revis and the Jets for Seattle's Mike Williams.

Board Bets
- Thinking Larry Fitzgerald will finish inside the top 10 among wide outs
- Thinking Joe Flacco would be a top 8 QB, that Kevin Kolb would be a top 10 QB, and that Chad Henne would be a top 15 QB
- Thinking Anthony Gonzalez would get more receiving yards than Pierre Garcon
- Thinking Chris Johnson would be better than Adrian Peterson
- Thinking Tom Brady could put up better fantasy numbers than either P. Manning, Rodgers, or Brees.
- Thinking Jonathan Stewart would be better than LeSean McCoy

TBS's Elite Scouting Report

They forgot "old man has old man's hip."

Carlos Zambrano Demoted To The Bullpen

Carlos Zambrano, holder of a 3.38 xFIP at the moment thanks to a refound strikeout talent and extremely abnormal/unlucky HR/FB%, was just demoted to the bullpen to make room for Ted Lilly. Not that Zambrano pitches like the ace he is paid like, but he easily one of the team's best pitchers. Zambrano is light years better than Big Fat Carlos Silva and he is substantially more durable (only last year did he fail to pitch 200+ innings and he still pitched 188). This move is so baffling that it hurts my brain. Lamenting the stupidity of the move further is almost pointless, as it is so self evident. I might rather have Omar Visquel DHing 162 games than Zambrano in the bullpen over Silva.

Lemme quote Fangraphs to get across the point that I think all Saber-minded Cubs fans are thinking at the moment:

Instead of getting 180-200 innings out of one of his top pitchers, Lou Piniella is instead opting for about 40 to 50 innings from him and then 100 to 150 out of a pitcher who projected as average at best coming into the season. The Cubs’ chances at the division were low coming into the season. If Piniella’s rash and irrational decision stays in place, they become virtually nil.

Carlos Zambrano might not be the Cubs best starting pitcher option at this point, but he is clearly one of the top five. Check out the "Rest of Season projections" for the Cubs' six primary starting pitchers options, courtesy of ZiPS (as of April 21):

• Ted Lilly: 177 IP, 3.70 ERA
  
• Ryan Dempster: 177 IP, 3.71 ERA
• Carlos Zambrano: 179 IP, 3.82 ERA
• Randy Wells: 152 IP, 4.14 ERA
  
• Tom Gorzelanny: 139 IP, 4.40 ERA
  
• Carlos Silva: 98 IP, 4.96 ERA

The ZiPS-projected difference between Silva and Zambrano this year (I use ERA, because ZiPS ERA projections have team defense factored in) is more than a full run per nine innings. Given the team's early struggles to score runs, that additional run per nine innings counts quite a bit.

MLB Trade Rumors asks readers if they have "[e]ver seen a $17.875MM reliever?" It took a horrendous 0-6 start (and 7.53 ERA) to the 2008 season before the Giants banished Barry Zito (paid $14.5 million that season) to the bullpen and even that experiment lasted all of zero games. To put this all in perspective, Barry Zito's xFIP was 6.27 when they "demoted" him, almost twice as high as Carlos Zambrano's current xFIP of 3.38.

This organization is in dire need of a top-down gutting and I am in dire need of a Tylenol. The post-Jim Hendry, Ryno-era can't come soon enough.

(On a side note, my first "real sports article" was published in print today. You can read the [heavily] edited version of it here.)

(Also, happy 100,000 visitors since instituting Site Meter in August! Congrats to everyone on this blog for a job well done.)

Joe Torre Is Terrible At His Job

My hatred of Joe Torre is well documented. He does everything wrong (playing Juan Pierre over Kemp/Ethier in 2007, batting Kemp in the bottom third of the order for the first half of the 2009 season, playing Ronnie Belliard over Orlando Hudson, starting Vincente Padilla (4.45 FIP last season) over Chad Billingsley (3.82 FIP last season), etc. etc.) but everything always goes right for him. He is without a doubt the luckiest manager in baseball.

So, not to out do himself, Torre is kicking off the season with a signature bad move: naming Vincente Padilla the opening day starter over Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. This move is so poor that it is almost self evident.

Chad Billingsley's projected FIP on Fangraphs is between 3.48 and 3.78
Clayton Kershaw's projected FIP on Fangraphs is between 3.41 and 3.61
Vincente Padilla's projected FIP on Fangraphs is between 4.46 and 4.70

God I hate Joe Torre.

Ed Wade Gets An Extension For Being Awful At His Job

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Ed Wade, the GM of the Houston Astros, has been inexplicably received a contract extension through the 2012 season. Why inexplicably? Let's evaluate his time in Houston. Since taking over the GM position in Houston towards the bitter end of the 2007 season, Wade has made the following moves (courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors) of significance (all contract data is courtesy of Cot's Contracts):

1. Signing Kaz Matsui to a 3-year, $16.5 million deal. Matsui has been worth a cumulative +2.5 WAR through the first two years of his contract. 117 players, including 18 second basemen, were at least that valuable last season, according to Fangraphs.
2. Extended Brian Moehler to a 2009 contract worth $2.3 million. Moehler was not even worth +1 WAR last season. Given the market value of a win in 2010 (~$3.5 million) this signing -- an undeniable waste of limited resources -- could have been worse I suppose. Why bother paying for less than a single additional win when you're a sub-.500 team? It's not like Moehler's +1.2 WAR 2008 lit the world of expectations on fire...
   
3. Signing Pudge to a 1-year, $1.5 million deal. Despite Pudge's sub-1 WAR 2009 season, I actually like this deal. The Astros got a good defensive catcher on the cheap. Pudge only played 2/3 of a season and Fangraph's WAR system does not take in to account Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAR) due to the difficulty in calculating it, but CHONE pegs Pudge as a +3 run defender next season. I see Pudge more as 1.5 WAR catcher full time and you really good do worse considering the scarcity of talent at the position (see Mets, New York).
4. Trading Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett to his former team, the Phillies, for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and Mike Costanzo. Michael Bourn alone made this deal a win. Despite a poor showing in 2008, Bourn was worth +4.2 WAR in center last season, thanks to an above average balance in fielding and hitting ability. Lidge on the other hand, despite the no-blown-saves bounce back season in 2008, was only worth +2.2 WAR in 2008 and a below replacement level -0.7 WAR last season. Geary is awful (+0.1 WAR since 2008) and Costanzo is a non-factor who was traded to the Orioles in the Tejada deal. Bruntlett is also pretty bad, for what it's worth (-1.1 WAR since being traded).
5. Traded Juan Gutierrez, Chad Qualls and Chris Burke to the Dbacks for Jose Valverde. It is important to note that RPs are traditionally overvalued. They get a very limited innings load, limiting their value, and its hard to judge their true talent level. No reliever was worth +3 WAR last season and only ten were worth even +2 WAR. Qualls has been worth +3.3 WAR since the trade, has a year left under team control, and has been paid less than $4 million over the past two seasons (he will make ~$4.2 million in 2010). Gutierrez made his team debut last season and was worth +1.5 WAR. He's is not arbitration eligible until 2011. No one cares about Chris Burke. On the other hand, Valverde was not worth even +1 WAR in either 2008 or 2009. He was cumulatively worth +1.5 WAR for the Astros, or what Juan Gutierrez did last season. On the other hand, whereas Juan Gutierrez was paid something in the ballpark of $400,000 in 2009, Jose Valverde was paid $12.7 million during his stay in Houston.
   
6. Traded Chad Reineke for Randy Wolf. 2008 was not a good year for the Padres selling low on players (see Edmonds, Jim). Wolf posted +1.1 WAR part-season in a meager 70 innings for the Astros. On the other hand, not even Oakland or San Diego can house the flyballs Chad Reineke serves up.
7. Traded Luis Bryan, Robert Bono and Jorge Jimenez for Matt Lindstrom. Lindstrom is an average RP talent who has posted +1.4, +0.8 and +0.0 WAR seasons in the past three seasons. He is getting paid ~$1.6 million in 2010 and who knows how much money through his next two years of arbitration -- probably more than the $3.5 million market value per win. Fangraphs doesn't think too highly of any of the three prospects (especially Bryan, who drew 0 walks in 111 minor league PA's) Houston traded away -- largely because the Houston farm system doesn't have any prospects to trade away -- but I disagree with the conclusion that "at such a low cost, this move makes a lot of sense for Houston." Lindstrom is turning 30 with decreasing control and largely succeed in 2007 and 2008 with sub-3% HR/FB rates. That's abnormally low, even for a relief pitcher. The average relief pitcher's HR/FB rate last season was 8.7%.
8. Traded Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Mike Costanzo (see #4), Dennis Sarfate and Troy Patton for Miguel Tejada. Tejada was worth a quality +5.7 WAR during his stay upon the Astros. He was also handsomely rewarded, getting paid $26 million in the process. Turns out Tejada, like many other Dominican players, lied about his age -- not that that was the Astros fault. What Ed Wade got was a player at "market value" at best. Eleven other SS were worth at least +5.7 over the past two seasons, but none of them were acquirable through free agency. Luke Scott has hit 48 HR since moving to Baltimore (cumulative +3.7 WAR in just over 1,000 PA) to Tejada's 27 and has cost Baltimore less than $3 million in salary (and he will make just over $4 million in 2010, while remaining under team control for 2011). Albers has provided the O's with +1.0 WAR of value over the last two seasons and the rest of the players have not (nor will they do) jack for Baltimore. It seems like Houston took on a lot of salary for just +1 WAR of value, while the O's saved a ton and filled that 1 WAR gap by signing Cesar Izturis (+1.2 WAR last season for 2-years, $5 million. In terms of absolute value, the Astros managed a fine trade, but from the economic perspective -- that of the marginal valued added in respect to the cost -- the Astros get screwed. Between Albers (who was just as valuable as Moehler was for $2 million less) and Scott -- collectively worth +4.7 WAR over the past two seasons -- the Astros added +1 WAR in Miguel Tejada at the cost of $22 million of payroll.
   

What you may notice here is a good trade for Michael Bourn and Randy Wolf (though Wolf ultimately provided limited value for the Astros, who let him go to the Dodgers for peanuts last season) and a handful of really bad moves -- in terms of both monetary value and production value. If you peruse through the Excel sheet, you will find plenty of other pointless trades that did nothing for the team. You can even look back to his days on the Phillies and evaluate his success record there on your own.

Regardless, what stands is the following. Ed Wade has not been very good for the Astros. He's made his fair share of bad trades and free agency signings (such as this offseason's signing of Brandon Lyon to a 3-year, $15 million deal, despite having only once in his career -- 2007 -- been worth even a win above average). Despite some signs-of-hope draft picking, Wade's tenure in Houston has been at an optimistic best, a wash. The Astros are a .500 team (166-166) since Wade took over. They've finished 3rd and 5th in the division each of the past two seasons. CHONE projects them to finish dead last in the NL Central this year. Wade has made the team less white in the past two seasons, but with an average age of 28.1, the Astros are still the fifth oldest team in baseball. Even the Yankees are younger.

Can't imagine any Astros fans being too excited over this move.

Is being a moron a prerequisite for getting paid to write for MLB.com?

Where is FireJoeMorgan when you need them? Today's idiocy comes courtesy of Chris Haft.

Jacobs isn't a premier free agent like Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. He isn't even considered a second-tier free agent. But he did hit 51 home runs in the previous two seasons. Jacobs would have an AT&T Park concession-stand menu item named after him, kind of like the "Cha Cha Bowl" saluting Orlando Cepeda, if he homered at that pace for the Giants.

These are the same Giants who ranked last in the Major Leagues with 94 home runs in 2008 and next-to-last in the National League with 122 homers last season. Granted, power isn't the cure-all to the Giants' offensive woes. But you have to wonder whether Jacobs might be worth signing to a one-year contract for a low base salary and enough performance bonuses to reward him for a job well done.

The Giants, who continue to seek offensive help, have contacted Jacobs' agent, John Boggs. Their interest in Jacobs appears minimal, however. "They haven't given any indication that he's a player they've targeted," Boggs said Monday. "But he could be the answer to completing their lineup."

Maybe Jacobs, 29, can be this year's Russell Branyan, who amassed 31 homers for Seattle last year after averaging 12 in the previous six seasons.

Let's look at the numbers; you know, Chris Haft's job.

It is true that the Giants ranked second-to-last in ISO last season, with a team mark of .132, but they also ranked dead last in both OBP, BB% and wOBA last season.

Whereas Russell Branyan hit for a .368 wOBA/.867 OPS with an 11.9% walk rate, .347 OBP and .269 ISO last season, Mike Jacobs posted a .305 wOBA/.698 OPS with a .297 OBP (8.6% walk rate) and .173 ISO. Branyan is a career .257 ISO hitter with an elite career walk rate of 12.2%. Jacobs, by contrast, has a career OBP of .313 (7.9% walk rate) and .222 ISO. Jacobs has a -9.0 career UZR/150 at 1B. Branyan has a career +1.6 UZR/150 rate at 1B.

Whereas Branyan's 31 bombs (in an injury shortened season) last year ranked top 15 in the AL and whereas Branyan's .269 ISO was top 5 in the league, Mike Jacobs' .297 OBP was the fifth worst of any AL player given 450+ PA's and his .173 ISO fell well below the MLB average for first basemen last season (.206).

So please, Mr. Haft, explain to me in what way one of the league's worst OBP guys with below average pop for a first basemen (and poor defense) can not only benefit the worst team in OBP and second worst team in ISO from 2009, but can also be this year's Russell Branyan. Show your work.

Oh, and for the record, Russell Branyan only averaged 12 home runs from 2003-2008 because he also averaged 175 PAs per season over that same time frame. If you extrapolate the 12 HR/175 PA sample size to just Branyan's 2009 PA amount, you get six seasons where Branyan, in theory, averaged 34.7 home runs. Mike Jacobs career high mark in HRs? 32 in 2008. That was the only time Jacobs ever hit more than 20.

The Worst Sports Announcer In The World Competition (ROUND 2)

Thank you to all who voted in round 1 of The Worst Sports Announcer In The World Competition. Round 1 had plenty of surprises. John Kruk, Steve Phillips and Buck Martinez were all eliminated, while Jim Rome survived round 1. Now it is time for round 2. The top 4 vote-getters of each category (bracket 3 will have five contestants, as there was a two-way tie for the fourth spot) have moved on to round two, where you can vote for up to TWO broadcasters per bracket. You can access voting for Round 2 by either clicking here (sorry, voting for round two has closed) or by clicking the giant blue link atop the page. Round 2 results will be released new year's day. We at Game Of Inches appreciate your participation and feedback. Cast your vote now!

Below are the voting results for round 1.

White Sox Acquire Juan Pierre...Why?

In another episode of "useless moves by Kenny Williams," the White Sox GM has traded two young prospects with potential -- RP Jon Link (great stuff, poor control) and SP John Ely (average-slightly above average "stuff", above average control) -- for the infamous Juan Pierre. The Sox, perpetually in search of "the prototypical lead-off man" (circa 1942), have finally found their man and can say sayonara to that old, shitty and greedy player known as Scotty Pods, who wants a ridiculous $5-7 mil per for 2-3 seasons...or have they?

Scotty Pods is a career .720 OPS hitter. Juan Pierre's career OPS? .720.

Scotty Pods is 33 years old. Juan Pierre? 32 years old.

Scotty Pods had the 39th weakest arm (-2.1 runs) in the OF amongst all OFs given 400+ PAs. Juan Pierre's ranking? 41st to last (-1.9 runs).

Scotty Pods' career speed score? 7.1. Juan Pierre? 7.3.

On that same topic, Scotty Pods has a career stolen base success rate of 76.7% (286/373). Juan Pierre? 74.8% (459/614).

Sure, Juan Pierre has been worth +33.5 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAR) --one half of which came in 2002 -- against Scotty Pods' career -8.0 FRAR, but Pods is nonetheless a somewhat averageish defender. It's also worth noting that Pods has hit 3x as many HR in 1/2 as many career PAs (in fact, Juan Pierre has exactly one home runs in his last 1,606 PAs).

And because baseball fans love irrelevant, bizarre and situational stats, I will also point out that both Juan Pierre (.910) and Scotty Pods (.905) had almost identical OPS's in their respective teams World Series bids.

What's the point? Juan Pierre is not much of an upgrade over Scotty Pods. The Sox are saying no to Scotty Pods' 2 year, $10-14 million demands in favor of a player with slightly better defense and equally crappy offense for $10 million for two season plus a pair of prospects. It just seems like the Sox, if that hell bent on acquiring a shitty OF to play lead off, could have just resigned Pods at approximately the same monetary cost without the waste of prospects. It's not exactly like the White Sox are overwhelmed with quality prospects (I see a lonely Tyler Flowers and overrated Jordan Danks, but who else remains?). I wonder if Kenny Williams noticed that Mike Cameron was available until a couple of days ago. Maybe he just wanted another overpaid outfielder to keep Alex Rios company/distract the fans from the terrible Alex Rios acquisition.

Oh, well. That's Kenny Williams for you.

Joe Frisaro needs to check his facts

You would think it a fair assumption that an MLB.com beat writer would keep up with what is going on with his assigned team, right? Not so much. Joe Frisaro, who allegedly follows the Marlins, projected their 2010 payroll earlier today. Unfortunately, Frisaro's predictions are fated to be inaccurate, as he accounts for the salaries of players who are no longer on the Marlins in his calculations.

Quote:

Hermida made $2.25 million in '09, and he will see his salary raise.

Hermida was traded to the Red Sox on November 5. Perhaps Frisaro should visit MLBTradeRumors or ESPN.com sometime and you know, check his facts.

DME 2, "professional sports guys" 0.

David "MVP" Eckstein destroys Chris Rongey

*Audio of DME royally destroying WSCR The Score 670 weekend host Chris Rongey* (call starts 56 seconds into the audio)

Chris Rongey does not believe in numbers. See baseball players are judged and payed based on what people see with their eyes. Because everyone knows that numbers are "drastically misleading". They are so misleading that life would be better off without them. Who needs medicine, engineering, electricity, motors, electromagnetic telecommunication, science in general for that matter. The day people started keeping data and formulating statistics in sports, is the day athletic competition died. I dont need to see numbers to know David Eckstein is the MVP, in all our hearts!

Steve Phillips got fired from ESPN for making the exact same blind comments that his "eyes" don't always agree with the "numbers". In fact, I wrote an entire post about Phillips theory of judging players based on his eyes, oh and Phillips loves rhythm too. I know everyone thinks he got fired for tapping Miss Piggy, but I chose to believe it was for being a complete and utter moron.

Nothing would make me happier if this Chris Rongey character got fired and had to go work in Wyoming or somewhere that doesn't actually have sports. I know he probably has a family, but refuting the reliability of numbers in favor of your own cognitive perception is moronic. If he could find numbers to back up his own cognitive perception then we can talk, but just throwing out random outdated beliefs does not make you right in the least.

Some memorable quotes from the conversation in the mp3 file.

Before putting us all to bed...tell us what your point is

DME's first comment was that batting average is a bad way to evaluate the White Sox offense. I thought this point was fairly clear, so why does Rongey have to twice ask for the point when it was given in the first 10 seconds of the conversation. Oh, and demeaning the caller by calling him boring, stupid, and wrong is probably not the best way to make yourself seem smart. Try some facts besides what your "eyes" see

I dont care what your looking at. You saw him play and you're suggesting that Jayson Nix is as good a baseball player as Alex Rios.

Why so against numbers Chris Rongey? Twice he berated DME for trying to present numbers. It would have been a waste of time anyway. Considering Matthew Berry thinks FIP is fly balls in play, what are the odds Rongey knows what iso, babip, wOBA, or UZR are. I would say about zero cause those things involve numbers. If Rongey ever goes blind, the universe will cease to exist I suppose.

Rios was an all-star a couple of times. I'm pretty sure he's made his case as to how good he is...he has a track record. He has proven over his career he can do it. Jayson Nix has yet to do it.

You know, Ted Williams was an all-star once or twice in his career. Now his head is being frozen in a basement somewhere in case they start cloning people some day. Once being an all-star doesnt make you currently good, nor does it even mean you were once good at baseball(see lance carter, tom gorzalleny, et al.) Do you know guys who didnt have a track record just a few years ago? Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Kemp. 2 years ago all of them were definitely worse than Alex Rios. Alex Rios is an all-star!

I really think numbers can dramatically lie to you. I really think that...I dont care what your looking at. You can dissect all the numbers you want, but Jayson Nix is not a better ball player than Alex Rios

Wow! Really? Really? Like you're being serious. Numbers lie. You are able to sorts through million of individual plays that occur in every baseball game throughout the entire history of baseball with your brain? If you can do that, then you picked the wrong profession my friend. That type of skill can make you some serious money out there. But maybe numbers do lie sometimes. Like you are soooooo entertaining that i think you make $300,000 dollars a year for being so awesomely entertaining, based on what my ear "hear", but in reality you only make $30,000 a year. Wow, way off on that one. Oops

You're really into sabermetrics aren't you? We don't care about your stupid blog.

Dude! You forgot to mention that we live in our mother's basements. No, actually we're fairly accomplished law and med students who discuss sports as a hobby not as our lives purpose. Oh, and dude went to Illinois State University. My old druggy roommate who got expelled for selling dope still got into Indiana. How dumb do you have to be. It was probably a tuition thing.

1) Jason Varitek was an "allstar" last year. Bad argument w/ regards to Rios
2) Carlos Quentin's 2007 on the D-backs: .214/.298/.349 in 263 PA
Jayson Nix 2009: .224/.308/.408 in 290 PA
3) "You're into sabermetrics, aren't you" isn't an argument as to why DME is wrong

Sha Na Na Na, Hey Hey Hey, GOODBYE

Today is a great today in the world of football! On ESPN, I see on the scroll that:

JOHN MADDEN HAS RETIRED FROM BROADCASTING!!!

FINALLY, while John Madden may have been a great coach (although not THAT great considering he had a shit ton of great Raiders teams and only won ONE Superbowl, but I'll give him his props he was really really good...) and has been immortalized on the best and favorite football video game ever. But his announcing was just god awful. In fact, in our mission statement we say "John Madden is the enemy". He's so bad a strong suggestion for this site was firejohnmadden.com. John Madden was only a good announcer if you were an alien and had absolutely no idea what the game of football was(Although then you'd be confused on who the hell Brett Favre is...). But even guys like MVP Eckstein, who have no knowledge really on football, get upset at Madden's obvious commentary. If the Announcing Trifecta From Hell is like nails on a chalkboard then John Maddon is like a damn drill going directly in your eye. Even Maddon's commentary in his game are annoying as shit. I'm so happy I don't have to hear him anymore!

P.S. Tony Kornheiser on PTI just said that John Madden is the most beloved announcer in sports. And there's a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell you. And Kornheiser just said how smart Madden was! What!? Jesus Christ- this PTI debate is just as dumb as John Madden explaining what a first down is.

Miller, Morgan, and Phillips Are Making My Ears Bleed

I have been waiting so long for Opening Day. And when it finally arrives, I have to listen to Steve Phillips, Joe Morgan, and Jon Miller. I'd rather hear nails on a chalkboard for three hours. Oh my god, it's so bad! As this site has proved, making "expert analysis" is definitely a lot of harder than it looks, especially where there is so much data to contradict valid, rational thought. But the Trifecta Announcing From Hell does not use valid, rational thought. The first inning is not even complete and here's some of the great announcing I have to look forward to:

*Chipper Jones hit a bloop to LF off a low center ball out of the strike zone* Jon Miller:

And that's the reason Chipper hit .364 last year

Um, I'm pretty sure it's because of Chipper's top Line Drive Percentage and the fact that doesn't strike out is the reason he, or anyone else is able to hit for THAT high of an average, not because he hits bloop singles. If bloop singles was the reason people had a high AVG, then maybe I should pick up Michael Bourne in fantasy leagues...

*Chipper is at-bat* Jon Miller:

Chipper was second in OPS last year to Albert Pujols. In fact, OPS is a statistic that some people are starting to use.

Really? Just now people are starting to use? How far out of baseball are you that OPS is still a statistic that's rarely used!?

*Brain McCann is at bat batting fourth after Chipper* Steve Phillips:

You know very rarely do you see a catcher in the clean up spot and while McCann is a great power hitting catcher this is just a testament to this Braves line up that they really don't have that 40 HR guy

What!? Yes the Braves do not have that guy who can hit "40 Home Runs". Here's a list of teams that did not have a 40 HR hitter last year: Chicago, Tigers, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Oakland, LA, Toronto, Seattle, and Texas. And that's just the American League! Next year there is only gonna be probably about four teams that will have a 40+ HR guy: Milwaukee (Ryan Braun), Phillies (Ryan Howard), Cardinals (Albert Pujols), and Nationals (Adam Dunn). If even that's pushing it. God forbid the Braves don't have a 40 HR guy in their line up! How terrible that they only have a guy who will hit about 25 HR in their four hole! Oh No!

Bad Baseball

I know this topic was slightly referenced in Baseball Prospectus' book BEHIND THE NUMBERS, but I'm going to accenuate it anyway. Sabermetrically speaking, do you know how bad of a shortstop Ozzie Guillen was? His career WPA (very similar to WARP) was -21.51. That's among the worst in the history of baseball. Very few players have been so bad and given over 7000 PA's.

There is a worse player, however, and his name is Neifi Perez's. Over the course of 11 seasons, Perez accumulated a -26.26 WPA in 5500 PA's. In fact, from 2002-2007 alone, Neifi Perez's production was so poor that it resulted in negative wins, costing four major league teams a total of $400,000 against replacement player production values. This, of course, is BEFORE you consider that he was paid $14.4 million over that same time period of time. So when it's all said and done, Neifi Perez cost almost $15 million in lost money. That's thievery, my friend.

How does Steve Phillips have a job?

Steve Phillips, baseball's worst GM and analyst, is on tonight's Baseball Tonight special. During a roundtable about whether or not the WBC presents a problem for teams who want to protect their investment in players, Phillips said something to the tune of: "We shouldn't be worried about the effects of the WBC on players. Look at the 2006 WBC. Did anyone get hurt? Was anyone affected." He says this "not just as a baseball fan, but as an ex-GM."

Does no one remember Jake Peavy? Following the added workload of the WBC, Peavy's ERA went up by 42%, his walks went up by 25% and his home run rate increased by 28%. He went from being 34% above league average in terms of his ERA to 1% below.

Looking deeper into the stats, we find that Peavy's BABIP was a bit high (.316), which clearly accounted for the 15% increase in hits between 2005 and 2006, while his HR/FB rate remained constant. However, this all happened to coincide with Peavy's 6% decline in groundballs and 8.1% increase in FB's, which led to an increased homerun rate and FIP increased of 21%.

All and all, it seems like Peavy's number were probably affected by some combination of luck and/or fatigue. While Peavy's most of peripherals remained relatively constant, his control was clearly affected by some measure -- and walks tend to be relatively luck neutral. Thus, I am tempted to side with the latter explanation (fatigue).

************************************

EDIT: Now the roundtable is talking about the youth movement in baseball. Never one to say something intelligent, Steve Phillips -- again in his opinion as "an ex-GM" -- is advocating drafting High School players over College players, despite all statistical evidence that points otherwise, because you can get "younger players."

Side note -- Phillips was notorious for signing aged veterans -- like Mo Vaugh, Bobby Bonilla and Kenny Rogers -- to expensive contracts during his brief tenure as the Mets GM.

Ay yi yi.

The Tale Of Ron Turner

Ron Turner used to be the offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears. He was fired because he was bad at his job.

Soon after, Ron Turner became the head coach for the University of Illinois football team. He was fired for because he was bad at his job.

Currently, Ron Turner is the offensive coodinator for the Chicago Bears (again). He is (still) bad at his job.