Showing posts with label Gallimaufry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gallimaufry. Show all posts

Dayton Moore: Trust The Silliness

Despite keeping the Royals the perpetual laughing stock of baseball, the AL's Pittsburgh Pirates, since taking over as Royals GM in 2006 (handing out silly contracts to guys Jose Guillen and Juan Cruz, while trading for guys like Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betancourt), Dayton Moore's patented process has quickly converted the Royals' once relatively barren farm system into one of baseball's best in modern memory. Makes you think that Dayton Moore might actually know what he's doing, right?

Especially when he says the following about Saber-darling Kila Ka'aihue:
Kila is a smart kid. He works hard. We think that what we saw in the last three weeks of the season from him is what he's capable of. We think he can hit .240-.260, hit 20-25 homers, .370 OBP. It will be a nice problem fitting all these guys in the lineup.
Gives you confidence that they'll give him a shot, rather than relegate him to a reserve role, right? Maybe leverage Butler to fill a team hole and plug the Kila Monster in the vacancy with Hosmer sharing 1B/DH duties? Still, when Moore continues talking, it makes you wonder if he's really the "genius" he's retroactively being touted as:
We need more speed and athleticism. My ideal team would have someone like Adam Jones or Torii Hunter up the middle, a guy who can provide speed, defense, and power. We'll have to see if Lorenzo Cain can be a player like that.
Increasing athleticism and power would be admirable goals if, beyond the fact that on base is 1.3 times as important as slugging, the people you aspire to acquire were actually athletic. Just to set the record straight, Torii Hunter has been a below average outfielder by both UZR and Total Zane estimates for the past half decade. He's accrued a -26.3 UZR over the past five seasons, posting a UZR/150 of -9.0 or worse in two of the past five seasons. Likewise, Adam Jones has not been a positive centerfielder in either of the past two seasons. His career UZR/150 in center is a tad better than -2.0, but his 2009-10 cumulative UZR is -12.6. Jones' "power," average or worse in all but one season of his career, is also quite dubious.

Keep in mind the Rays also got a better haul, at least in my estimation, for Garza than the Royals did for Greinke. Silly Cubs.

Then again, this is the same organization that thought that they had "the greatest offseason in the history of whatever” last year...

When Baseball Writers Do Not Think

According to MLB Trade Rumors,
Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com thinks the Beltre signing "isn’t necessarily a loss for the jilted A’s" since the Rangers didn't solve their main need of pitching, and Beltre's production last year "represents a wash offensively" with the departed Vladimir Guerrero.
That would be all and well if baseball was an exclusively offensive game, but it's not. Even in the AL, eight of the hitters take the field. Michael Young posted a -5.4 UZR last season and has a career UZR/150 of -7.5 over 293 games played (2544 innings) at third base. On the other hand, Adrian Beltre posted a +11.8 UZR last season and has a career +15.3 UZR/150 at third base over 1818 games, 15676.1 innings played. That's a ~2 WAR differential there, assuming a wash in offense between 2010 Vladimir Guerrero (.360 wOBA) and 2011 Adrian Beltre (projected .355 wOBA). Oh, and don't forget that Big Daddy Vladdy won't be forced to butcher the outfield for the Rangers in interleague games next season either.

Further Proof That Baseball Players And Writers Know Nothing About Baseball

According to Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com:
"[T]he Russell Branyan trade . . . was, simply put, a very popular move in the Indians' clubhouse. Branyan was great with reporters, but he was not exactly up for team captain consideration by his teammates.

For whatever it's worth, the Indians are 11-6 without Branyan on the roster (6-6 when he was on the DL in April; 5-0 since the trade)."
Russell Branyan's 2010 stats: .264/.333/.500 (.361 wOBA), +4 FRAR fielding, +1.4 WAR (injury-shortened season)

The Indians, as a whole: .247/.323/.381 (.315 wOBA), 8.2 UZR/150

With the exception of Carlos Santana and Shin Soo-Choo, Russell Branyan's +1.2 WAR on the Indians in limited is higher than any other batter on the team (through 07/01/2010).

So yes, the Branyan trade totally makes sense for the Indians. He was costing the team at least a full run per game in Leadership Per Nine (L/9).

Is being a moron a prerequisite for getting paid to write for MLB.com?

Where is FireJoeMorgan when you need them? Today's idiocy comes courtesy of Chris Haft.

Jacobs isn't a premier free agent like Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. He isn't even considered a second-tier free agent. But he did hit 51 home runs in the previous two seasons. Jacobs would have an AT&T Park concession-stand menu item named after him, kind of like the "Cha Cha Bowl" saluting Orlando Cepeda, if he homered at that pace for the Giants.

These are the same Giants who ranked last in the Major Leagues with 94 home runs in 2008 and next-to-last in the National League with 122 homers last season. Granted, power isn't the cure-all to the Giants' offensive woes. But you have to wonder whether Jacobs might be worth signing to a one-year contract for a low base salary and enough performance bonuses to reward him for a job well done.

The Giants, who continue to seek offensive help, have contacted Jacobs' agent, John Boggs. Their interest in Jacobs appears minimal, however. "They haven't given any indication that he's a player they've targeted," Boggs said Monday. "But he could be the answer to completing their lineup."

Maybe Jacobs, 29, can be this year's Russell Branyan, who amassed 31 homers for Seattle last year after averaging 12 in the previous six seasons.

Let's look at the numbers; you know, Chris Haft's job.

It is true that the Giants ranked second-to-last in ISO last season, with a team mark of .132, but they also ranked dead last in both OBP, BB% and wOBA last season.

Whereas Russell Branyan hit for a .368 wOBA/.867 OPS with an 11.9% walk rate, .347 OBP and .269 ISO last season, Mike Jacobs posted a .305 wOBA/.698 OPS with a .297 OBP (8.6% walk rate) and .173 ISO. Branyan is a career .257 ISO hitter with an elite career walk rate of 12.2%. Jacobs, by contrast, has a career OBP of .313 (7.9% walk rate) and .222 ISO. Jacobs has a -9.0 career UZR/150 at 1B. Branyan has a career +1.6 UZR/150 rate at 1B.

Whereas Branyan's 31 bombs (in an injury shortened season) last year ranked top 15 in the AL and whereas Branyan's .269 ISO was top 5 in the league, Mike Jacobs' .297 OBP was the fifth worst of any AL player given 450+ PA's and his .173 ISO fell well below the MLB average for first basemen last season (.206).

So please, Mr. Haft, explain to me in what way one of the league's worst OBP guys with below average pop for a first basemen (and poor defense) can not only benefit the worst team in OBP and second worst team in ISO from 2009, but can also be this year's Russell Branyan. Show your work.

Oh, and for the record, Russell Branyan only averaged 12 home runs from 2003-2008 because he also averaged 175 PAs per season over that same time frame. If you extrapolate the 12 HR/175 PA sample size to just Branyan's 2009 PA amount, you get six seasons where Branyan, in theory, averaged 34.7 home runs. Mike Jacobs career high mark in HRs? 32 in 2008. That was the only time Jacobs ever hit more than 20.

Call Me Crazy, But Bert Blyleven Deserves To Be In The Hall Of Fame

(Skip down two paragraphs if you are not interested in reading my teary-eyed introduction)

Today, December 8, is the one-year anniversary of the creation of the Game Of Inches blog. We began our blog with a mission: "to prove that God doesn't exist and that athletes are merely cold, metal machines with no souls or heart." With the then-recent death of FireJoeMorgan.com and an ever growing appreciation of the deeper stories in baseball -- those told below the surface of Batting Average and ERA --we started a blog to join the realm of sabermetrics fans everywhere and help penetrate the myths, while often trying to be funny and relevant along the way.

It all began with a single post, written late one night, following a heated argument with a friend about whether or not Tom Glavine deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. Though we were then-inexperienced in the ways of FIP and wOBA and the likes, we still knew of the importance of strikeouts, walks, home runs and the gallimaufry of hits, total stolen bases, wins and ERA. From that post sprung many more and today we at Game Of Inches sit proudly today, exactly 1,200 posts later, having grown from nothing into what we are today. We would proudly like to thank you, the 400+ readers who visit this site daily, and Google Images, for making us the #1 search result for "lesbians."

It is only fitting that in honor of our anniversary and first post that I follow it up by expounding upon a question I raised in passing 365 days ago: why is Bert Blyleven not in the Hall Of Fame?

In the long, traditional and tainted history of baseball, you will find few players who were as good as Bert Blyleven. A pitcher who spent 86% of his career in the AL, Blyleven was not only one of the most durable pitchers to ever play the game (14th all time in innings pitched), but he also played each and every one of those innings, up until the last few years of his career, remarkably well and consistently. Blyleven was not just "good" at baseball, he was nothing short of great, and unlike Javier Vazquez, he did not underperform his stellar peripherals.

In terms of the topical, traditional and irrelevant statistics, Blyleven's career 3.31 ERA puts him in company with current/future Hall Of Famers Randy Johnson (career 3.29 ERA), Fergie Jenkins (career 3.34 ERA), Phil Niekro (career 3.35 ERA), and Robin Roberts (3.41 ERA). His ERA is also lower than that of Tom Glavine (career 3.54 ERA). You like wins? His 287 wins are give him one more than Robin Roberts, and makes him 27th all time. Only six other players in the history of baseball who have more wins than Blyleven (Tommy John (288), Bobby Mathews (297), Randy Johnson (303), Tom Glavine (305), Roger Clemens (354), and Greg Maddux (355)) are not currently in the hall of fame, and five years from now, that number will dwindle down to two. Many pitchers with less wins are already in. Furthermore, Blyleven was never known as a jerk or cheater or drug user like Albert Belle, Ron Santo, Tim Raines, Kenny Rogers, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, et al. (to the contrary,he has a good sense of humor). But wins don't really matter, attitude has nothing to do with talent and production on the field, and a career ERA may tell much about a pitcher's success over the years, but it does not necessarily showcase a pitcher's true talent (see Javier Vazquez). However, these are three of the most common factors by which voters approve or deny players into the Hall Of Fame. How Blyleven, who performed remarkably well in his surface stats and other irrelevant, but considered aspects of the game is not given due credit (he only got the nod from 62.7% voters last year) is downright puzzling.

Below the very quality surface stats, however, you find an even more impressive skill set. Bert Blyleven ended his career with a 3.19 FIP over almost 5,000 innings pitched, making him top 50 all time amongst starting pitchers who threw 2500+ innings. A 3.19 FIP puts Blyleven in company with such current/future Hall Of Famers as Steve Carlton (career 3.15 FIP) and Jim Bunning (3.22 FIP) and ahead of such guys as Don Sutton (career 3.24 FIP), Greg Maddux (career 3.26 FIP), Fergie Jenkins (3.28 FIP), Dennis Eckersley (career 3.40 FIP), and Phil Niekro (career 3.60 FIP). In fact, Blyleven's FIP was only above 3.00 twice during his first ninemajor league seasons (one of which was his rookie year). Over those first nine years of his career, his career high FIP was 3.27. In his career, his FIP was above 4 only three times. His BB/9 was only three times above 3.00 in a season and only once above 3.50. Blyleven's K/9 (6.70 career) was also above average each season until his final three in the majors. With the exception of his final three seasons -- over which Blyleven's K/BB was 2.98, 2.76, and 2.41 -- Blyleven's K/9 was never below 6.0.

Blyleven's numbers are so good because his control was superb. It was not Greg Maddux like, but his career 2.39 BB/9 is none the less fantastic. Blyleven posted a career 2.80 K/BB mark, which is top 35 amongst all pitchers who threw 2000+ innings (top 25 amongst all pitchers with 2500+ innings). And just in case Blyleven's career 2.80 K/BB does not sound sweet enough, between 1970 and 1992, the league average K/BB was only above 1.75 once (1988).

Fangraphs does not have any groundball data available for any season prior to 2002, but it is well known that Blyleven had a fantastic curveball and he kept the ball in the yard plenty with a 0.78 HR/9.

In sum, we have the portrait of a pitcher with great peripherals and quality surface stats. Blyleven was an almost entirely AL pitcher with a good reputation, a lot of wins, great control (in terms of both BB/9 and K/BB), and a very quality FIP and ERA. His 3,701 career strikeouts are fifth all time and he's better than many of the pitchers who are already honored (some of whom should not be...) in the halls of history in Cooperstown, NY. Blyleven was one of baseball's true greats and he is for some befuddling reason (perhaps it's the superfluous lack of 300 wins or the fact that Joe Morgan hates all non-Joe Morgan players) overlooked every year.

Blyleven still has a handful more years upon which his name will appear on the annual HOF ballot, but time is running out. The world of baseball needs to take a second look at Blyleven's career before it's too late and hopefully, in the process, the world of baseball will also catch notice of the career of Mike Mussina.

The Marlins are REALLY cheap


When your highest base salary for a player is $5.5 million for a season, you know that your team is not exactly spending money. No one ever claimed the Marlin's were rolling in the dough, but if you think the Marlins' 2009 payroll of $36.8 million is ridiculously miniscule, look back a few years. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Marlins 2006 base payroll was under $15 million. FIFTEEN MILLION. Ryan Howard has only been in league for four years and is already making more money than the entire team spent that year. Hell, Tim Lincecum might get paid more than $15 million next season and he hasn't even thrown 600 major league innings (a team that plays 162 games without any of its games going in to extra innings will have to pitch 1458 innings).

The 2006 Florida Marlins' revenue stream took in $122 million. Where is that money going and why is Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria forcing the state to subsidize the Marlin's new stadium?? I'm shocked that the citizens of Florida are not more outraged that the city is funding approximately 75% of the $645 million new stadium in Miami. If the team wants to cut costs and increase profits by moving the team to a better location, they should do it on their own dime; it's called a business investment.

The New York Times article (the last link above) frames the issue particularly well:
The economic benefits could also prove illusory, analysts say, because spending at new stadiums often replaces money spent at old ones or comes at the expense of spending at theaters, restaurants and other entertainment sites.

Eager to get the project rolling, Miami-Dade issued its bonds over the summer, when the municipal bond market was in flux. The county paid nearly a full percentage point more in interest to issue its bonds than if it had waited a few months. The Marlins agreed to buy the last $7 million of bonds that the county was unable to sell to the market.

As the recession has revealed, some conservative forecasts elsewhere proved too optimistic. In 1996, officials in Hamilton County, Ohio, expected their local sales tax revenue to grow 3 percent a year when they agreed to add a half-penny to pay for stadiums for the Cincinnati Reds and the Bengals. Instead, it has since grown 1.6 percent per year on average and fallen nearly 10 percent this year, forcing lawmakers to consider cutting the schools budget.

“Cincinnati is a smaller market, but it underscores that all these projects have risks, and Miami has to understand in the depths of this recession it may take longer to recover than people think,” said Mark Rosentraub, the author of “Major League Losers,” which examined stadium deals nationwide. Rosentraub called Miami’s agreement “reckless.”
And yet, the Democrats of this country want more government. Go figure.

This gallimaufry isn't just happening on the Eastern Seaboard. The Mariners pigeon-holed Seattle into building them a new stadium a decade ago and are now forcing the taxpayers to pay for essential repairs to the stadium. I guess the city is going to get the last laugh, however, as they recently approved building a strip club next door. Maybe they'll call it The Foul Pole (or Randy's Johnson).

(Check here to read the details of the Mariners contract with the city as cited in an except from King County v. Taxpayers of King County)

Blog Post #1061: John Lackey Gallimaufry

It's been awhile since we've pointed out an outrageous, unjustifiable and stupid comment from a sports writer. Found one to fill the void. Steve Melewski implicitly thinks that Jeremy Gutherie is just as good as John Lackey.

Specifically:

Are you tired of hearing about him yet? Get used to it. He's considered the top free agent pitcher out there and the time for players to file for their "freedom" hasn't even come yet.

Some are speculating that Lackey will garner a contract for five years and worth between 80 and 100 million.

The ship is about to come in for the right hander.

O's fans will anxiously await word on whether their club is in the hunt for Lackey. While I would love to see him top and lead Baltimore's young rotation, I don't see the O's throwing out a contract of that magnitude.

Some say whoever signs Lackey will be getting a good, but not nearly great pitcher. There is some evidence that may be true.

Here's a comparison of Lackey's last two seasons (combined) vs. Jeremy Guthrie's 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Lackey: 23-13, 3.79.....340IP....338H....43 HR.....87BB.....269K.......1.25 WHIP.
Guthrie: 17-17, 3.66....366IP.....341H....47HR.....105BB.....243K......1.22 WHIP.

Is the Guthrie of those years a pitcher worth 80 to 100 million? I didn't think so, either. By the way, Guthrie is 30 and Lackey 31.

I agree with the conclusion, but not with the reasoning here. Yes, yes, John Lackey is going to be overrated and overpaid this offseason and yes Jeremy Guthrie kind of blows, but that does not mean that the two pitchers are anywhere near the same level of quality. One has been a hallmark of consistency from 2007-2009. The other is below average and arguably on the precipitous decline. I'll show you the numbers and you decide who is who.

John Lackey, 2007-2009
-xFIP by season: 4.09, 3.99, 4.11
-K/9 by season: 7.19, 7.16, 7.09
-GB/FB: 1.24, 1.30, 1.28
-First Pitch Strike: 65.7%, 65.2%, 62.6%

Jeremy Guthrie, 2007-2009:
xFIP by season: 4.41, 4.64, 5.47
-K/9 by season: 6.31, 5.66, 4.95
-GB/FB: 1.11, 1.15, 0.75
-First Pitch Strike: 58.6%, 59.3%, 58.3%

But hey, Guthrie's been healthier...

ESPN 1000 Gallimaufry

In contempt that Mack, Jurko and Harry were touting Gavin Floyd and John Danks as Cy Young worthy pitchers, I called in ESPN 1000 to argue.

Noting that Gavin Floyd and Danks (but Floyd in particular) are flyball pitchers in a home run park, backed up by the worse defense in baseball, I asked them "how much budweiser have you all had to drink today?"

It's ok, though, because as Mack replied (to paraphrase): "I don't care how many home runs a guy gives up if they are all solo shots."

Taking note of this stupid, stupid response, I logged into Fangraphs.com and discovered that Gavin Floyd's 30 home runs last season were tied for the fifth most amongst any starting pitchers. With the exceptions of Dave Bush (whose FIP was awful), Scott Olsen (whose FIP was even worse) and Ted Lilly (whose FIP was a very average 4.41), no pitcher who gave up 29 or more home runs last season had an ERA under 4.55 -- EXCEPT Gavin Floyd, whose FIP was 4.77.

But it's OK, because Gavin Floyd only gives up home runs when no one's on base because he wills it so; he's just clutch like that.

I Think Jeff Passan Has Jason Giambi Confused With Corey Patterson

Bored before work today, I was browsing through Yahoo! Sports' "Ultimate Free-Agent Tracker." Among the many Free Agent "summaries for dummies," I came across this strange ranking:

"31) Jason Giambi, DH: After years as a bust, he could prove a power-hitting bargain to a team in need of a designated hitter."

If you (or Jeff Passan, for that matter) were to in fact click the given link, you would find the following batting statistics for Jason Giambi as a Yankee:

2002: 1.034 OPS (172 OPS+), 41 HR, 109 BB, 689 PA
2003: .939 OPS (148 OPS+), 41 HR, 129 BB, 690 PA
2004: .721 OPS (90 OPS+), 12 HR, 47 BB, 322 PA
2005: .975 OPS (161 OPS+), 32 HR, 108 BB, 545 PA
2006: .971 OPS (148 OPS+), 37 HR, 110 BB's, 579 PA
2007: .789 OPS (108 OPS+), 14 HR, 40 BB, 303 PA
2008: .875 OPS (128 OPS+), 32 HR, 76 BB, 565 PA

Putting his two injured half seasons (2004, 2007) aside, Jason Giambi played five "full" (545+ PA's) seasons for the Yankees, only OPS-ing below .930 once (last year, with a league-worst .875 OPS). In fact, if you were to take out Giambi's terrible first month start from his final season stats in 2008, in his worse full season with the Yankees, Giambi would have put up a horrible .904 OPS (485 PA). If you were to even combine Giambi's two injured half-seasons into a single full season and expect "production" from him, he still would have had an OPS+ of 101, 1% better than the MLB average, in his worse "full season" as a Yankee.

So please, Jeff Passan, explain to me how a guy who hit an average of 35 HR's a season (1 less than Mark Teixeira's career season average), walked 100+ times a season and OPS-ed .961 when healthy (.926 overall) for the Yankees was a "bust." Are you trying to say that Giambi wasn't as good at ages 30-37 as he was when he was 26-29 and on steroids? Does that even count as an argument?

EDIT 1: I was looking over Giambi's stats and noticed his seven year Batting Average for the Yankees was approximately .250. Perhaps Passan, who clearly doesn't understand the important statistics in baseball, thought that batting .250 (despite a .400+ OBP) makes one "bad." But then I remembered this article Jeff Passan wrote a few months ago. Surely Passan cannot think that Giambi is a "bust" because of his .250 BA because he was just raving about Ryan Howard, who hit .250 (and had an OPS only 5 points higher than Giambi's 2008 OPS) last year. So what in the fuck is Jeff Passan talking about???

EDIT 2: Come to think of it, you know who else has a career OPS of .926 or higher? Only 40-other players. Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson had career OPS's of .926. In fact, Giambi's career OPS ranks top 30 in MLB history, ahead of Willie Mays, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz, Carlos Delgado and Albert Belle. Giambi basically has the same career OPS as Ty "Wife Beater" Cobb. Pretty fucking exclusive company, if you ask me.

At this point, I demand an apology for the time you made me waste thinking about this all day.