This is a post I wanted to write about since the MLB playoffs began; however, due to time restraints and my own self-doubt about this topic, I decided not to write a post about it. But now that the Rangers have made the World Series and Game One of the series is tonight, I decided this would be a perfect time to write this post.
At the beginning of the playoffs, I predicted the Texas Rangers to come out of the American League. I though Texas had the best all around team. We all know their line up is amazing (Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, Mike Napoli, Ian Kinsler, and Elvis Andrus make up more than 2/3 of the line up. How ridiculous is that!) and I really liked the big end of their bullpen when they acquired Koji Uehara and Mike Adams to lead into the dominant closer that is Neftali Feliz. However, one of the Rangers perceived weaknesses was their rotation.
Part of this perception is that they don't have a shut down, #1 ace. The Tigers had Verlander. The Yankees had C.C. Sabathia. The rays had James Shields. The Rangers number one man was C.J. Wilson, who was only made into a starter last year.
However, Wilson ended up as the fourth best pitcher in the American League in 2011 (in terms of WAR), behind Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, and Angels pitcher Dan Haren. Wilson was an All-Star and a GOI deserved All-Star. In the AL Wilson was top 10 in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and K/9. Wilson had the talent and potential to hang into Game Ones like the rest of them.
As it turns out, Wilson has had a pretty awful 2011 postseason (0-2, 8.04 ERA) but it was not just Wilson that I liked the Rangers rotation, it is the back end of it that made me like their rotation. I thought the Rangers had the most complete rotation out of anyone in baseball. Outside of Sabathia the Yankees had no one. The Tigers had Doug Fister has their second pitcher (who was also awful in the postseason) and then relegated to starting Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer (who had pretty bad 2011 seasons). The Rays had a decent rotation but matched up poorly to the Rangers hitting staff (James Shields- 12.60 postseason ERA, Jeremy Hellickson- 6.75 postseason ERA, and David Price- 4.05 postseason ERA).
Admittedly some Rangers pitchers have not fared better (Derek Holland- 5.27 postseason ERA, Matt Harrison- 4.27 postseason ERA) but I was basing this post and my prediction at the beginning of the postseason (I also had been championing the Rangers as the best AL rotation thinking Boston would make the Wild Card, not the Rays).
That being said, the main reason I liked the Rangers rotation was how they performed down the stretch.
For starters lest talk about fantasy. In the last 30 days of the 2011 season- Colby Lewis was the 7th best pitcher, Derek Holland was the 10th best pitcher, and Matt Harrison was the 21st best pitcher. That's three pitchers in the top 25. Sure, that's fantasy, and we're talking about reality in this post, but I wanted to give you a reference point to how good the Rangers pitchers were before coming into the postseason.
In September and October, Wilson was the 2nd best pitcher in the AL and Harrison was the 4th. Derek Holland was the 14th best and Colby Lewis was the 20th. That comes out to an average of 10th best in the AL. For comparison, the Tigers averaged 14.25 and the Rays averaged 40.00. (NOTE: The Yankees started resting their pitchers so they did not have enough IP to qualify.)
In September and October, Derek Holland had a 2.20 ERA in 32.2 IP with 35 strikeouts. In that same time span Matt Harrison had a 2.64 ERA in 30.2 IP with 23 strike outs.
While Holland and Harrison were clutch down the stretch to help the Rangers earn the #2 seed in the American League (which ultimately led them to home field advantage throughout the playoffs so far) and kept away the pesky Angels, it has been Colby Lewis and Alexi Ogando that have kept their playoff run alive.
After a 4.26 ERA in June and a 7.14 ERA in August (and because of how good players like Harrison and Holland were late in the year), Rangers Manager Ron Washington decided to move Alexi Ogando to the bullpen as his long reliever. As it turns out, Ogando has been the Rangers best "starting pitcher" because of it. Ogando leads all AL "starters" with a 0.87 ERA in the postseason. The Rangers have won all 7 games that Ogando has pitched in. He pitched two innings in three out of his four appearances verses the Tigers and did not give up an earned run in any of his appearances against the Rays.
Then we have Colby Lewis, the best starting pitcher (statistically) who has pitched (and started) more than one game in the American League. He has the fourth best ERA among AL starters (first is Ogando (has not technically started in the post season), second is Matt Moore (only one appearance) and third is A.J. Burnett (only one appearance)).
Lewis has a better 2011 postseason ERA than: Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, and C.C. Sabathia.
What does this all mean? Probably nothing considering they are facing the luckiest freaking team in the World Series: the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals last World Series was won based on smoke and mirrors (and mainly because the Tigers were so good they won their Championship Series easily and that rest hurt them in the World Series) and they won only 87 games that season. This season the Cardinals only won 90. The Rangers won 96 and did it in the more difficult league.
Anyways, while I think the Rangers have a better overall team than the Cardinals, the Cardinals will probably win anyways. I'm just pointing out that I like the Rangers rotation and pitching.
Showing posts with label Texas Rangers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Texas Rangers. Show all posts
When Baseball Writers Do Not Think
According to MLB Trade Rumors,
Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com thinks the Beltre signing "isn’t necessarily a loss for the jilted A’s" since the Rangers didn't solve their main need of pitching, and Beltre's production last year "represents a wash offensively" with the departed Vladimir Guerrero.That would be all and well if baseball was an exclusively offensive game, but it's not. Even in the AL, eight of the hitters take the field. Michael Young posted a -5.4 UZR last season and has a career UZR/150 of -7.5 over 293 games played (2544 innings) at third base. On the other hand, Adrian Beltre posted a +11.8 UZR last season and has a career +15.3 UZR/150 at third base over 1818 games, 15676.1 innings played. That's a ~2 WAR differential there, assuming a wash in offense between 2010 Vladimir Guerrero (.360 wOBA) and 2011 Adrian Beltre (projected .355 wOBA). Oh, and don't forget that Big Daddy Vladdy won't be forced to butcher the outfield for the Rangers in interleague games next season either.
Translating Cliff Lee The Mariner Into Cliff Lee The Ranger
In a follow up post to my article Translating Cliff Lee The Mariner Into Cliff Lee The Yankee, I did a very similar analysis for THT Live entitled Translating Cliff Lee The Mariner Into Cliff Lee The Ranger.
Stayed tuned for more mid-season baseball goodness as the Rumor Mills heat up over the next 22 days. Jayson Werth (to Yankees?) and Ted Lilly (to Mets? Yankees? Twins?) are getting a lot of trade buzz as of late. Who do you think will be traded next?
_________
UPDATE:
Parts 3 and 4 of my analysis are also online.
Stayed tuned for more mid-season baseball goodness as the Rumor Mills heat up over the next 22 days. Jayson Werth (to Yankees?) and Ted Lilly (to Mets? Yankees? Twins?) are getting a lot of trade buzz as of late. Who do you think will be traded next?
_________
UPDATE:
Parts 3 and 4 of my analysis are also online.
The Other Maddux
When you hear the name Maddux you think of Greg Maddux. Greg Maddux was an eight time all star, won the Cy Young four times, won eighteen gold gloves, won a World Series, and won at least 15 games for 17 straight seasons. He also won more games during the 1990s than any other pitcher. For these reasons he is considered one of the best pitchers of all time and arguable the best of my generation. Greg Maddux had great stuff through his career, especially during 1992 to 1995 where he won his four consecutive Cy Young’s and had a remarkable record of 75-29 with a 1.98 ERA, while allowing less than one runner per inning. Even though he has 3,371 career strikeouts and ranks 10th on the all time strikeout list, Greg Maddux wasn’t known as being a strikeout pitcher. He was known as the best in getting batters to pitch to contact. This way he was able to throw fewer pitches and go deeper in games. He is known for being a great finesse pitcher and possible the best control pitcher ever. This made him one of the most successful groundball pitchers ever. Maddux relied on his command, composure, and baseball IQ to get hitters out by mixing in strikeouts with his strategy to induce the ground out. Thus, when you hear the name Maddux, you automatically think about Greg Maddux the Hall of Fame pitcher!
Mike Maddux is the older brother of Greg Maddux. He was a mediocre journeyman pitcher who spent 15 years in the major leagues playing for 10 teams. He was mostly a relief pitcher who appeared in 578 career games. In his career he won 39 games and lost 37. That is compared to his brother Greg who won 355 and lost 227. Mike Maddux has pitched 861 innings with a career ERA of 4.05. Thus, he had the opposite career of his hall of fame brother. One thing they had in common was there baseball IQ and great understanding for pitching. After he retired from playing in 2000 he started his career as a pitching coach first for the Round Rock Express, a Double-A affiliate of the Houston Astros. In 2000 his Round Rock Express staff ranked 2nd in the Texas League with a 4.11 ERA. Also, in 2000 the same team won the league championship. With his success it wasn’t too long before he was noticed for being an excellent pitching coach and was given a chance in the major leagues.
In 2003 he started his professional career as a major league pitching coach with the Milwaukee Brewers. He was the Brewers pitching coach for six years from 2003 to 2008In 2008 the Brewers staff ranked 2nd in the National league with a 3.85 ERA. This was the lowest earned run average for the Milwaukee Brewers in 16 years since 1992.
During the 2008 season Manager Ed Yost was fired and the new manager, Ken Macha hired his own coaching staff. Mike Maddux was not made to feel welcome with the new coaching staff. The Brewers should have been more aggressive to retain him. Mike was offered a position by the Rangers which he accepted. This was a big mistake for the Milwaukee Brewers. A good organization knows that the coaches have a big impact on the team, and maybe even more than the actual manager. The Chicago Cubs know this. The Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild has been with the Cubs since 2002. He has seen the Cubs go through three managers in Don Baylor, Dusty Baker, and now Lou Piniella. Cub’s management knows how important a pitching coach is and they have told the three managers that Larry Rothschild is the pitching coach. Lou Piniella didn’t mind because he was the first manager who gave Larry Rothschild a chance as a pitching coach back with the Reds in 1990 after Larry Rothschild was his bullpen coach. Dusty Baker wanted to bring in one of his guys in Dick Pole as pitching coach, but the Cubs said no, so Dick Pole became the bench coach. Dick Pole is currently the pitching coach for the Reds managed by Dusty Baker. Other organizations have had the same pitching coaches for a while, but very few out last the manager like in Chicago.
On February 6, 2008 Nolan Ryan was hired as the president of the Texas Rangers. The Texas Rangers have made their hitting coach the highest paid hitting coach in the game, until this past off-season where The Chicago Cubs lured him away from The Rangers. This is because they know the importance of good coaches. One of the first things Nolan Ryan did was hire Mike Maddux as their pitching coach on November 3rd, 2008. He joined Jackie Moore (bench) and Dave Anderson (third base) as new coaches for the 2009 season. Maddux decided to go from Milwaukee to Texas because of prior connections in the Texas Organization. This is because Maddux started his pitching coach career as the pitching coach at Double-A Round Rock from 2000 to 2002. That Round Rock team was owned by Nolan Ryan who is now the Rangers President. That team was managed by Jackie Moore, the new Texas bench coach. Maddux inherited a Texas pitching staff that had a 5.37 ERA, worst in the major leagues.
For the 2008 season the Texas Rangers pitching was terrible. The prior year they ranked dead last in ERA for team ERA of 5.37. That is why Nolan Ryan hired Mike Maddux to try and turn the pitching around. They had 8 shutouts for 17th place in the majors, gave up the most earned runs at 860, ranked 6th in walks at 625 free passes, and ranked 27th in strikeouts with only 963 as a team. Opponents batted a league best .288 against them. The Texas Rangers pitching staff was bad for a number of years having the 24th ERA in 2007 at 4.75 ERA, 9th in giving up earned runs at 755, and second in walking batters at 668
In his first season with Texas, the Rangers pitching staff had an ERA of 4.38 which ranked 8th in the American league out of 14 teams and 18th in the major leagues out of 30 teams. They had 11 shutouts and 8 complete games. Their 11 shutouts ranked 8th in the majors and their 8 complete games ranked 7th in the Majors. They were 7th in saves with 45. Their Achilles heel was converting saves where they were 45 for 58. Thus, the Texas rangers had an average pitching staff, but were much improved from the previous seasons.
The Texas pitching staff has much to look forward to this year. They are anchored by the veteran in Kevin Millwood. Millwood came up with the Atlanta braves in 1997 behind Hall of famers Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine. He was overshadowed by those great pitchers, but showed a lot of promise and potential. Then he played for the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cleveland Indian in 2005. In 2005 for the Indians he had his best season since 1999. In 2005 he went 9-11 with a 2.86 ERA. Then he signed a big multiyear deal with the Texas rangers before the 2006 season. He struggled with the Rangers until this season under Mike Maddux. Maddux was able to get him back on track and be the ace he was supposed to be.
Then there is the magic he has performed with the other pitchers. This was Scott Feldman’s second year as a starter in the big leagues after pitching in their bullpen for a few years. Last season Feldman went 6-8 with a 5.39 ERA in 25 starts. This past season under the mentorship of Mike Maddux Feldman put his game together going 17-8. He had a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts logging a career high 189.2 innings only allowing 86 runs and 18 homeruns. He turned Feldman into a top of the rotation pitcher after barley being a 5th starter. Tommy Hunter pitched in 3 games for the 2008 season going 0-2 with a 16.36 ERA in 11 innings. He was able to make adjustments this season and went 9-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 19 starts. Under Maddux, Feldman and Hunter developed to being middle of the rotation pitchers with the potential of getting even better as they learn from one of the best pitching coaches.
This year he will have 2 new projects to make effective starters. Derek Holland made his debut this season going 8-13 with a 6.12 ERA in 21 starts in 33 games with a complete game shutout. He is a lefty with potential to grow next season. The 5th starter in the Rangers rotation will be Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy just needs to stay healthy because he has been injury plagued since his debut back in 2005 with the Chicago Whites Sox.
Thus, Mike Maddux may not be the Maddux everyone knows, but he has found his place as one of today’s elite pitching coaches.
Mike Maddux is the older brother of Greg Maddux. He was a mediocre journeyman pitcher who spent 15 years in the major leagues playing for 10 teams. He was mostly a relief pitcher who appeared in 578 career games. In his career he won 39 games and lost 37. That is compared to his brother Greg who won 355 and lost 227. Mike Maddux has pitched 861 innings with a career ERA of 4.05. Thus, he had the opposite career of his hall of fame brother. One thing they had in common was there baseball IQ and great understanding for pitching. After he retired from playing in 2000 he started his career as a pitching coach first for the Round Rock Express, a Double-A affiliate of the Houston Astros. In 2000 his Round Rock Express staff ranked 2nd in the Texas League with a 4.11 ERA. Also, in 2000 the same team won the league championship. With his success it wasn’t too long before he was noticed for being an excellent pitching coach and was given a chance in the major leagues.
In 2003 he started his professional career as a major league pitching coach with the Milwaukee Brewers. He was the Brewers pitching coach for six years from 2003 to 2008In 2008 the Brewers staff ranked 2nd in the National league with a 3.85 ERA. This was the lowest earned run average for the Milwaukee Brewers in 16 years since 1992.
During the 2008 season Manager Ed Yost was fired and the new manager, Ken Macha hired his own coaching staff. Mike Maddux was not made to feel welcome with the new coaching staff. The Brewers should have been more aggressive to retain him. Mike was offered a position by the Rangers which he accepted. This was a big mistake for the Milwaukee Brewers. A good organization knows that the coaches have a big impact on the team, and maybe even more than the actual manager. The Chicago Cubs know this. The Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild has been with the Cubs since 2002. He has seen the Cubs go through three managers in Don Baylor, Dusty Baker, and now Lou Piniella. Cub’s management knows how important a pitching coach is and they have told the three managers that Larry Rothschild is the pitching coach. Lou Piniella didn’t mind because he was the first manager who gave Larry Rothschild a chance as a pitching coach back with the Reds in 1990 after Larry Rothschild was his bullpen coach. Dusty Baker wanted to bring in one of his guys in Dick Pole as pitching coach, but the Cubs said no, so Dick Pole became the bench coach. Dick Pole is currently the pitching coach for the Reds managed by Dusty Baker. Other organizations have had the same pitching coaches for a while, but very few out last the manager like in Chicago.
On February 6, 2008 Nolan Ryan was hired as the president of the Texas Rangers. The Texas Rangers have made their hitting coach the highest paid hitting coach in the game, until this past off-season where The Chicago Cubs lured him away from The Rangers. This is because they know the importance of good coaches. One of the first things Nolan Ryan did was hire Mike Maddux as their pitching coach on November 3rd, 2008. He joined Jackie Moore (bench) and Dave Anderson (third base) as new coaches for the 2009 season. Maddux decided to go from Milwaukee to Texas because of prior connections in the Texas Organization. This is because Maddux started his pitching coach career as the pitching coach at Double-A Round Rock from 2000 to 2002. That Round Rock team was owned by Nolan Ryan who is now the Rangers President. That team was managed by Jackie Moore, the new Texas bench coach. Maddux inherited a Texas pitching staff that had a 5.37 ERA, worst in the major leagues.
For the 2008 season the Texas Rangers pitching was terrible. The prior year they ranked dead last in ERA for team ERA of 5.37. That is why Nolan Ryan hired Mike Maddux to try and turn the pitching around. They had 8 shutouts for 17th place in the majors, gave up the most earned runs at 860, ranked 6th in walks at 625 free passes, and ranked 27th in strikeouts with only 963 as a team. Opponents batted a league best .288 against them. The Texas Rangers pitching staff was bad for a number of years having the 24th ERA in 2007 at 4.75 ERA, 9th in giving up earned runs at 755, and second in walking batters at 668
In his first season with Texas, the Rangers pitching staff had an ERA of 4.38 which ranked 8th in the American league out of 14 teams and 18th in the major leagues out of 30 teams. They had 11 shutouts and 8 complete games. Their 11 shutouts ranked 8th in the majors and their 8 complete games ranked 7th in the Majors. They were 7th in saves with 45. Their Achilles heel was converting saves where they were 45 for 58. Thus, the Texas rangers had an average pitching staff, but were much improved from the previous seasons.
The Texas pitching staff has much to look forward to this year. They are anchored by the veteran in Kevin Millwood. Millwood came up with the Atlanta braves in 1997 behind Hall of famers Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine. He was overshadowed by those great pitchers, but showed a lot of promise and potential. Then he played for the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cleveland Indian in 2005. In 2005 for the Indians he had his best season since 1999. In 2005 he went 9-11 with a 2.86 ERA. Then he signed a big multiyear deal with the Texas rangers before the 2006 season. He struggled with the Rangers until this season under Mike Maddux. Maddux was able to get him back on track and be the ace he was supposed to be.
Then there is the magic he has performed with the other pitchers. This was Scott Feldman’s second year as a starter in the big leagues after pitching in their bullpen for a few years. Last season Feldman went 6-8 with a 5.39 ERA in 25 starts. This past season under the mentorship of Mike Maddux Feldman put his game together going 17-8. He had a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts logging a career high 189.2 innings only allowing 86 runs and 18 homeruns. He turned Feldman into a top of the rotation pitcher after barley being a 5th starter. Tommy Hunter pitched in 3 games for the 2008 season going 0-2 with a 16.36 ERA in 11 innings. He was able to make adjustments this season and went 9-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 19 starts. Under Maddux, Feldman and Hunter developed to being middle of the rotation pitchers with the potential of getting even better as they learn from one of the best pitching coaches.
This year he will have 2 new projects to make effective starters. Derek Holland made his debut this season going 8-13 with a 6.12 ERA in 21 starts in 33 games with a complete game shutout. He is a lefty with potential to grow next season. The 5th starter in the Rangers rotation will be Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy just needs to stay healthy because he has been injury plagued since his debut back in 2005 with the Chicago Whites Sox.
Thus, Mike Maddux may not be the Maddux everyone knows, but he has found his place as one of today’s elite pitching coaches.
A Diamond for the Cubs?
Larry Rothschild has a new project in the form of Thomas Diamond. The Cubs claimed Thomas Diamond off of waivers the other day from the Texas Rangers. He is coming off Tommy John surgery and the Rangers ran out of patience with him. Lets hope the Cubs can be beneficiary of this. Diamond was the 10th overall pick in the 2004 draft by the Texas Rangers. Some big name players that were drafted ahead of him in the first round were Justin Verlander (2nd pick), Jeremy Sowers (6th pick), and players drafted after him were Jered Weaver (12th pick), Billy Butler (14th pick), Stephen Drew (15th pick), Joshua Fields (18th pick), and Philip Hughes (23rd pick). A few years ago he was one of the top pitching prospects for the Rangers with John Danks and Edinson Volquez. He will be added to the 40 man roster and have from now until spring training to rehab and works some things out. Hopefully he will be able to make the club and contribute next season.
Horrible Trades, Wiped Out Farm Systems
Did you know that the anemic pitching system of the Texas Rangers once simulataneously included Chris Young (traded with Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka), Edinson Volquez (traded for Josh Hamilton) and John Danks (traded for Brandon McCarthy)? With Josh Hamilton being the notable exception, the Rangers have basically given away several of their top players (including Mark Teixeira) over the years for "top prospects" that never panned out (replacing traded talent with aged veterans like Vincent Padilla, Kevin Millwood and Eric Gange).
Scarier than this situation is that of the Detroit Tigers, who traded the entire farm in less than two years (primarily in one offseason). Since the end of the 2007 season, the Tigers have given away Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens, Matt Joyce, Gorky Hernandez and Burke Badenhop (in addition to a few other no name guys) and only received Miguel Cabrera (who is great), Dontrelle Willis (who has been the opposite of great since 2006) and Edgar Renteria (who is old and inconsistent) in return. Of those three, only Miguel Cabrera is expected to be on the major league roster in 2009. The Tigers' minor league system is pretty barren, with 2007 draft pick Rick Porcello being the lone retained talent. Doom and gloom looms for Detroit fans past 2010.
Just think, Detroit fans, this is what the core of your team COULD have looked like in 2009:
C - Greg Laird
1B - Magglio Ordonez (he can't hurt you as bad defensively if you shove him at first)
2B - Placido Polanco
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Carlos Guillen
OF - Curtis Granderson
OF - Matt Joyce
OF - Cameron Maybin
DH - Gary Sheffield
SP - Justin Verlander, Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Armando Galaragga, Rick Porcello
Instead, you have Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and D-Train. Congratulations, Dave Dombrowski.
Scarier than this situation is that of the Detroit Tigers, who traded the entire farm in less than two years (primarily in one offseason). Since the end of the 2007 season, the Tigers have given away Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens, Matt Joyce, Gorky Hernandez and Burke Badenhop (in addition to a few other no name guys) and only received Miguel Cabrera (who is great), Dontrelle Willis (who has been the opposite of great since 2006) and Edgar Renteria (who is old and inconsistent) in return. Of those three, only Miguel Cabrera is expected to be on the major league roster in 2009. The Tigers' minor league system is pretty barren, with 2007 draft pick Rick Porcello being the lone retained talent. Doom and gloom looms for Detroit fans past 2010.
Just think, Detroit fans, this is what the core of your team COULD have looked like in 2009:
C - Greg Laird
1B - Magglio Ordonez (he can't hurt you as bad defensively if you shove him at first)
2B - Placido Polanco
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Carlos Guillen
OF - Curtis Granderson
OF - Matt Joyce
OF - Cameron Maybin
DH - Gary Sheffield
SP - Justin Verlander, Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Armando Galaragga, Rick Porcello
Instead, you have Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and D-Train. Congratulations, Dave Dombrowski.
