My latest article for The Hardball Times.
One of a series on dilemmas facing major league teams this winter.
There are three ways to build a baseball team, though the three methods are the ends and the middle of a continuum. The White Sox seem stuck at one end, and it's not clear how they can change that this offseason.
The first way to build a contender is organically, relying heavily on successful scouting and development of players in the farm system. This is the method the Tampa Bays Rays have followed so successfully, and though not the easiest way to build a team—it requires good projection by scouts—it is most appealing method for small market teams.
Of course, not even the Rays' deep farm system can churn out a full 25-man roster, so organic growth must be supplemented by shrewd trades and free agent signings. This means exploiting market inefficiencies and avoiding brand names, like signing Kyle Farnsworth ("washed up") and letting Rafael Soriano ("the next Jonathan Papelbon") walk. Because young talent is cost-controlled, and because shrewd free agent signings tend to be some combination of short-term commitment and relatively low-cost, "misses" in current years tend to have a lower impact on future years. At the same time, more players are required to contend because the young talent tends to be more raw. The need for more good decisions is especially true when the organizational philosophy is to build a stable of young 3 WAR players with upside, rather than around a perennial 8 WAR player.
At the other extreme of team building is signing players who are already good to fill out your roster through free agency pool and big trades. This approach is somewhat attractive because players between ages 27 and 30 tend to "be what they are" and are more projectable in the years immediately following. These players also are more established, meaning they can sell jerseys. On the other hand, these players cost more money and more contract years, or cost big prospects who are young, cost-controlled and potentially the source of many future years of value. The back end of most large free agent contracts, where money is often backloaded, can turn once-stars into untradable albatrosses. And overvaluing a free agent or acquired player—think Barry Zito or Vernon Wells—can make even the early years of the contract ugly.
In this category, misses not only hurt now, but they can cripple a team's future. It can have big results, but it requires the franchise using it to be able to eat massive contracts, or otherwise be so bloated with inefficient contracts for several seasons that it is unable to contend. This approach is best embodied by the Yankees, and teams that are trying to "win now" by mortgaging some or all of their future (the 2008-2011 Brewers, for example). Teams that employ this strategy tend not to get high draft picks (surrendered to Type A signings), and any drafting successes they do have are often used as leverage to bring in "younger" talent through trades.
The middle ground between these two strategies blends signings and drafting to form the nucleus of the team. This could be done by signing a young free agent stud like Prince Fielder and using the farm system to build around him with young. above-average major league talent. It could alternatively mean developing a superstar stud (think Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria or Troy Tulowitzki), signing him for a very long time, and then using the free agent market and swapping young talent to fill team holes. The middle ground can take many creative forms, the best of which are embodied by the Cardinals and Rockies. "Misses" are can be stomached and "hits" do not need to be as dramatic because moves tend to be one at a time as needed and built around some long-term nucleus. Provided the middle ground is done right, rebuilding and reloading should be the "simplest" under this method because the right young players will steadily trickle in, contracts won't cripple, and free agency can be used to fill the needs the farm system cannot provide.
The White Sox are the small market team of big markets. Compared to the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox and even Dodgers, the White Sox are the Pirates. They are just barely a top 10 revenue franchise, according to Forbes estimates. Yet, they've tried to build a team like the Yankees. Their 2011 payroll was seventh overall, just a few million behind the Cubs. Depending on what the Cubs, Yankees and Angels do this offseason, the Sox could have the fourth highest payroll in baseball next year, behind only the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies.
General manager Kenny Williams uses his farm system as a trade block. Sometimes this approach has worked, as with the team's trades for Jim Thome, Gavin Floyd and John Danks. More often, however, these trades have not worked out, and when they didn't, the Sox either sold low or cut bait (e.g., Nick Swisher). Being trade-focused, the White Sox have not been nearly as heavy-handed in the free agent market as the Yankees, which is why unjustified moves like using Mark Kotsay at DH did not cripple the team's future. Alas, given their lack of player development, heavy reliance on building through trades and recent spending binge spending, the result has been practically the same. Only the White Sox do not have the same resources as the Yankees to eat bad contracts—or, ironically, as good a farm system to reload through. (Who expected the Yankees to have a borderline top five farm system?)
What does this mean for the Sox?
In theory, the Sox have the short-term pieces in place to compete. They were just a few games under .500 in a relatively weak division last year, and BABIP luck did not fall their way. Then again, the Indians have upgraded their weak pitching with groundball specialists Ubaldo Jimenez and Derek Lowe, the Twins can't be any worse next year than they were this year, and the Tigers are still in a very good competitive position.
Who knows if Paul Konerko can keep up his late-career resurgence, though there is no reason he cannot be a +3 WAR first baseman if healthy in 2012. (Oliver forecasts a .289/.359/.497 triple-slash line). Alexei Ramirez, athletic and just 30, has turned into an All-Star shortstop.
You have to imagine that Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham have nowhere to go but up from last year, right? Rios' xBABIP says he should have hit .275 or so last season, but except for April and May of 2010, he has been a negative asset for the Sox in every other month. Rios does not have much room to improve at 31, and he may just be an overpaid league average player at this point. Still, league average is not awful.
And then there is Adam Dunn. Even though he fell off horribly, Dunn's true talent line lies somewhere in between his 2008 and 2011 numbers. In the world according to xBABIP, Dunn's expected BABIP was .060 points higher than his actual, meaning his "luck neutral" slash line last year should have been a still pathetic .191/.319/.317. Dunn's appendectomy may have had some impact on his swing and ability to turn on the ball last season. Expect a lot of rebound.
But rebound means a .235/.350/.450 slash line—or about what Carlos Pena did for the Cubs this past year. That would be productive, and add a relative offensive boost to the 2012 White Sox, but it is not the impact bat they quite expected when they handed Dunn $56 million. They might as well have just re-signed Jim Thome who, despite playing in only 201 games over the past two years, has produced 4.5 wins above replacement for under $5 million. Compare that to the -4.3 WAR of combined DH production of, and the $17.3 million the Sox paid to, Kotsay, Manny Ramirez, and Dunn over the past two seasons. A +2 WAR season for Dunn next year is entirely in the cards, but the Sox will be overpaying for that production by about 35 to 50 percent, depending on the price of a win this offseason. Given Carlos Quentin's defense, it is a wonder that the Sox needed to bring in a DH at all (although when you look at defense through Jermaine Dye-tinted, rose colored glasses, everyone looks like Franklin Gutierrez).
Mark Buehrle may or may not re-sign, but the 2012 roster is looking a lot like the 2011 roster with a healthier Jake Peavy and an emerged Sergio Santos. They should be very competitive in the short run. The long run is a much uglier story.
The White Sox will have two major players hitting free agency after 2012 in Quentin and Danks. Peavy, who has a $22 million team option for 2013, will almost unquestionably be let go for the price of the $4 million buyout, but he'll save the team a net $13 million. Floyd might also reach free agency, though I expect the White Sox to exercise his $9.5 million team option. Meanwhile, the Sox' payroll will experience a mild offsetting payroll jump from the back-loaded contracts of Dunn, Rios and Ramirez—this before any possible arbitration raises. The White Sox already have a payroll just under $130 million, and it is a serious question whether they can maintain or extend their payroll beyond that amount. Anyone who thinks that young players Dayan Viciedo (projected .748 OPS), Alejandro De Aza (projected .752 OPS), Zach Stewart (projected 5.30 ERA), and Phil Humber (projected 4.30 ERA) are the answers to the Sox' future holes might be strongly mistaken. That's not to mention the current hole at third base (Brent Morel projects for a .703 OPS).
Through a decade-plus of trading, Williams has decimated the White Sox farm system. At least that much is certain. Heading into 2011, the White Sox were universally regarded as having a bottom five farm system. Marc Hulet went so far as to rank the Sox farm system as the worst in baseball last year, behind even the Brewers. Especially with the graduation of Chris Sale from prospect status, the Sox do not have anyone who would qualify as a prospect, let alone a top 10 prospect on most other teams.
The Sox only have two viable choices: Go all in for 2012, or hold a 50-75 percent off Macy's Spring Day Sale, hope to save some money and start the rebuilding process sooner than later by targeting very young prospects in low levels in the minors. I doubt Williams will opt for the latter strategy, especially not after all the White Sox have tried to do to rebuild the fan base over the past decade. As a result, we may see Williams try to spin a few trades and short-term-risk signings to shore up the 2012 roster. If the Sox are in contention by the All-Star break, I would not be surprised to see Viciedo on the move. An underperforming team would likely see Danks and Quentin depart early.
At some point, the White Sox are going to have to start reloading for the future, and they'll have to start from square one. At the moment, they do not have a nucleus core of players who are relatively young and figure to be productive for a long time. Ramirez, Rios and Dunn will be around the longest, and they're all in their 30s. Beckham's fallen off the map since 2009—those second-half flashes of hope in 2010 seem lost in a putrid 2011 campaign. Tyler Flowers projects as potentially a slightly above average major leaguer, but he's no core-nucleus to build around.
The future is ugly for the White Sox. But hey, at least Ozzie Guillen is gone and 2012 should be fun to watch. The White Sox are approximately in the same boat as the Cubs were heading into 2009, only with a lot fewer projected wins.
Showing posts with label Chicago White Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chicago White Sox. Show all posts
I'm Done With Gordon Beckham
As both a White Sox fan and as a guy who owns him in my AL-only league I'm sick of Gordon Beckham (or "Bacon" as we in Chicago with our thick accents call him) and I want him sent to the minors.
Currently Bacon is hitting .230 with an on base under .300 (.291) with a SLG of only .345 and he's hitting with Jack Wilson Power with a .115 ISO. He only has four home runs and two stolen bases. It's even frustrating watching Beckham at the plate.
This year Bacon is only hitting .267 off of fastballs being thrown to him according to ESPN.com. Hitting a fastball is just one of the basic fundamentals every professional baseball hitter should be able to do, and Bacon can not seem to do that right now. This year Bacon is having a career year (in a bad way) with his strike out rates and walk rate. Currently Beckham is striking out a little more than once every four at-bats (26.1%) and only walking a measly 4.9%. Bacon is also having a career year with a swinging strike rate of 11.8%, up 2.5% from in his 2010 season.
There appears to be very little evidence that Bacon's awful start is due to bad luck. Sure, his BABIP is nine points lower than his career average, but even if that normalizes, he bats .250 at best? Even if you could find some statistic that Bacon should be producing better than he is, I'm still pessimistic because he just looks like he has no plate discipline. All you need to do is watch Beckham swing and have no control over the strike zone to see how poor he's batting.
We are already 30% done with the 2011 season and this year along with last year is just evidence to me that Bacon should be sent down to the minors. Yes, Bacon was an elite prospect selected by the White Sox eighth overall in the first round of the 2008 draft. However, there was only 364 days between the time Beckham was drafted and when he became an everyday starter for the ChiSox. Gordon Beckham only played 7 games (50 at bats) in AAA Charlotte before getting called up.
Bacon batted in the #2 hole at the beginning of the 2010 and 2011 season, but after slumping and getting off to horrible starts both years, manager Ozzie Guillen moved Bacon down to the 8 or 9 slot and let Alexei Ramirez shine at the top of the line up. Ozzie made the move he said to help take the focus and attention away from Gordon. Admittedly the move has helped somewhat as Bacon is batting .284 in the month of May, however he also struck out at a higher percentage (34.3%) than he did in March and April (20.4%). I also don't see Bacon's May triple slash line (.284/.364/.418) continuing all season with his continued poor control of the strike zone (Bacon essentially had the same BB/K rate in May as he did in April/March) and his high May .395 BABIP.
In term of Bacon's defense I do think his game at second base has vastly improved since he started playing there at the beginning of the 2010 season. At first his play and range was sub par (at best) and made errors on simple plays or failed to turn easy double plays which showed in his overall -1.2 UZR/150 and -0.8 Fld. In 50 games in 2011 however Bacon has a 2.0 Fld and 6.3 UZR/150 which is the only reason Bacon's WAR is not currently below zero (it's 0.5). But until Bacon's bat follows his glove, I think he should stay in AAA.
To replace Beckham, I believe that Brent Lillibridge should play second (Lillibridge is an infielder by trade). With 119 less plate appearances and non-consistent playing time (although that is changing more of late) Lillibridge has more home runs (five to four) and stolen bases (4 to 2), a superior better ISO (.345), and a better triple slash line (.291/.375/.636) than Gordon Beckham. Sure Lillibridge's strike out rates, walk rates, and swinging strike rates look eerily similar to Beckham's, but at least Lillibridge is producing right now (also Lillibridge has a more normal BABIP) and at 27 years old, it finally looks like this prospect is performing like he should have.
Now let me be clear, when I say I'm done with Gordon Beckham I do not mean that I want the White Sox to trade him or that I don't think Bacon will EVER be able to hit. The dude is only 24 years old and there is still plenty of time for Bacon to be the player we all thought he could be after his rookie campaign. But I do believe Bacon's development is actually being stunted while in the majors and should be sent down to fix his mechanics and get back to basics in AAA before being on the major league squad again. Listen, I want Bacon to succeed. I want him to live up to his potential and to be the player we thought he would be but I do not think he can do that right now.
Currently Bacon is hitting .230 with an on base under .300 (.291) with a SLG of only .345 and he's hitting with Jack Wilson Power with a .115 ISO. He only has four home runs and two stolen bases. It's even frustrating watching Beckham at the plate.
This year Bacon is only hitting .267 off of fastballs being thrown to him according to ESPN.com. Hitting a fastball is just one of the basic fundamentals every professional baseball hitter should be able to do, and Bacon can not seem to do that right now. This year Bacon is having a career year (in a bad way) with his strike out rates and walk rate. Currently Beckham is striking out a little more than once every four at-bats (26.1%) and only walking a measly 4.9%. Bacon is also having a career year with a swinging strike rate of 11.8%, up 2.5% from in his 2010 season.
There appears to be very little evidence that Bacon's awful start is due to bad luck. Sure, his BABIP is nine points lower than his career average, but even if that normalizes, he bats .250 at best? Even if you could find some statistic that Bacon should be producing better than he is, I'm still pessimistic because he just looks like he has no plate discipline. All you need to do is watch Beckham swing and have no control over the strike zone to see how poor he's batting.
We are already 30% done with the 2011 season and this year along with last year is just evidence to me that Bacon should be sent down to the minors. Yes, Bacon was an elite prospect selected by the White Sox eighth overall in the first round of the 2008 draft. However, there was only 364 days between the time Beckham was drafted and when he became an everyday starter for the ChiSox. Gordon Beckham only played 7 games (50 at bats) in AAA Charlotte before getting called up.
Bacon batted in the #2 hole at the beginning of the 2010 and 2011 season, but after slumping and getting off to horrible starts both years, manager Ozzie Guillen moved Bacon down to the 8 or 9 slot and let Alexei Ramirez shine at the top of the line up. Ozzie made the move he said to help take the focus and attention away from Gordon. Admittedly the move has helped somewhat as Bacon is batting .284 in the month of May, however he also struck out at a higher percentage (34.3%) than he did in March and April (20.4%). I also don't see Bacon's May triple slash line (.284/.364/.418) continuing all season with his continued poor control of the strike zone (Bacon essentially had the same BB/K rate in May as he did in April/March) and his high May .395 BABIP.
In term of Bacon's defense I do think his game at second base has vastly improved since he started playing there at the beginning of the 2010 season. At first his play and range was sub par (at best) and made errors on simple plays or failed to turn easy double plays which showed in his overall -1.2 UZR/150 and -0.8 Fld. In 50 games in 2011 however Bacon has a 2.0 Fld and 6.3 UZR/150 which is the only reason Bacon's WAR is not currently below zero (it's 0.5). But until Bacon's bat follows his glove, I think he should stay in AAA.
To replace Beckham, I believe that Brent Lillibridge should play second (Lillibridge is an infielder by trade). With 119 less plate appearances and non-consistent playing time (although that is changing more of late) Lillibridge has more home runs (five to four) and stolen bases (4 to 2), a superior better ISO (.345), and a better triple slash line (.291/.375/.636) than Gordon Beckham. Sure Lillibridge's strike out rates, walk rates, and swinging strike rates look eerily similar to Beckham's, but at least Lillibridge is producing right now (also Lillibridge has a more normal BABIP) and at 27 years old, it finally looks like this prospect is performing like he should have.
Now let me be clear, when I say I'm done with Gordon Beckham I do not mean that I want the White Sox to trade him or that I don't think Bacon will EVER be able to hit. The dude is only 24 years old and there is still plenty of time for Bacon to be the player we all thought he could be after his rookie campaign. But I do believe Bacon's development is actually being stunted while in the majors and should be sent down to fix his mechanics and get back to basics in AAA before being on the major league squad again. Listen, I want Bacon to succeed. I want him to live up to his potential and to be the player we thought he would be but I do not think he can do that right now.
Quick Chicago Baseball Notes
I am diligently working towards rounding out my third semester of law school, so let me make this post brief, to the point, and unsubstantiated by proof (like about 1/2 of all plaintiff law suits):
1. The Cubs signed Carlos Pena to a 1-year/$10 million dollar deal last night. I could not be happier. Sure, the Cubs will not be competition in 2010 (barring some unforeseen lightning in the bottle a la the 2010 Padres), but at least we'll be hitting home runs again. I can't remember the last time a Cub hit 40 home runs in a season. Oh wait, yes I can: 2005 Derrek Lee!
2. Speaking of home runs, the Cubs came this close to trading for my perpetual man crush, Chris Davis, last night. The deal would have sent catcher Robinson Chirinos (plus an unpolished 22-year old arm, Rafael Dolis, who has periodically hit triple digits on the radar gun) to the Rangers for Davis and Darren O'Day. Even with Pena briefly in the fold, I would like this deal (Davis is only 24, had 4 seasons of team control remaining) for the long term and even 2011, if the Cubs end up flipping Pena for a prospect mid-season. I won't repeat myself for the billionth time, but Davis is a high power, high strikeout, some walk, tons of line drives hitter. A .280/.335/.520 line is more than plausible at Wrigley.
3. White Sox re-sign aging Paul Konerko to a 3-year/$37.5 million dollar contract. Can't blame Kenny on this one. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf stepped into Williams' affairs and pulled the trigger. Williams in now reporting the Sox are out of financial wiggle room, which might be problematic with 2 of the team's best bullpen arms (Putz, Jenks) leaving via free agency, while Linebrink (overpaid, but effective last year) has been traded away. The Sox seem to be riding big on Thornton/Santos/Pena in the pen with a splash of Chris Sale, who is supposed to be a promising starter, placed in the mix.
1. The Cubs signed Carlos Pena to a 1-year/$10 million dollar deal last night. I could not be happier. Sure, the Cubs will not be competition in 2010 (barring some unforeseen lightning in the bottle a la the 2010 Padres), but at least we'll be hitting home runs again. I can't remember the last time a Cub hit 40 home runs in a season. Oh wait, yes I can: 2005 Derrek Lee!
2. Speaking of home runs, the Cubs came this close to trading for my perpetual man crush, Chris Davis, last night. The deal would have sent catcher Robinson Chirinos (plus an unpolished 22-year old arm, Rafael Dolis, who has periodically hit triple digits on the radar gun) to the Rangers for Davis and Darren O'Day. Even with Pena briefly in the fold, I would like this deal (Davis is only 24, had 4 seasons of team control remaining) for the long term and even 2011, if the Cubs end up flipping Pena for a prospect mid-season. I won't repeat myself for the billionth time, but Davis is a high power, high strikeout, some walk, tons of line drives hitter. A .280/.335/.520 line is more than plausible at Wrigley.
3. White Sox re-sign aging Paul Konerko to a 3-year/$37.5 million dollar contract. Can't blame Kenny on this one. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf stepped into Williams' affairs and pulled the trigger. Williams in now reporting the Sox are out of financial wiggle room, which might be problematic with 2 of the team's best bullpen arms (Putz, Jenks) leaving via free agency, while Linebrink (overpaid, but effective last year) has been traded away. The Sox seem to be riding big on Thornton/Santos/Pena in the pen with a splash of Chris Sale, who is supposed to be a promising starter, placed in the mix.
Extremely Quick Thoughts On Recent White Sox FA Moves
Considering this is a "Sexy Rexy" post and I wrote this in a hurry, I guarantee you there will be at least one spelling or grammatical mistake. My bad. But did you really expect anything less?
- Sox sign Adam Dunn to a four year $56 million dollar deal. I love it. I understand he's AWFUL at any defensive position and should play DH and not 1B (like he will) but I don't care. He can stop hitting 38 HR like clockwork and start hitting 40+ in Comiskey. I don't care about the money as well because I'll still pay to see this team about 3-4 times a year no matter what and if ticket sales do go up, it'll be minimal to me. Plus, the White Sox are not the Oakland A's. They do not need to be conservative with their money. Plus, if this is actually a good deal (DME tell me if this is or not!) then it's just icing on the cake.
- Sox will probably re-sign Paul Konerko. Last year was probably a career season past 2005 for him but I love him. There are certain players that when you wear their jerseys to the games, you will NEVER get a funny look. Konerko is one of those jerseys. If you go to a Bears game and you see a Rex Grossman jersey you think to yourself, "Get a new fucking jersey dude. This isn't 2006". But Konerko is like wearing a, hmm, I don't want to say Walter Peyton because Konerko was never THAT good, maybe a Fridge jersey? Anyways, you get the point. Paul Konerko will never be that type of "Rex Grossman jersey" player. I would love to see him retire as a White Sock from an emotional aspect and he'll produce WAY better than fucking Mark Kotsay or whoever was in the "rotating DH" spot last year
- Sox give Alexei Ramirez a raise. Great. I love A-Ram, I said he will develop into a good defensive player and he proved me wrong- he developed into a GREAT defensive player and fucktard Derek Jeter stole a Gold Glove from him last year. Plus Alexei's got some great pop. Obviously I'd love to see him get ONE walk in his career but I still want him on my team.
- Sox non-tender Bobby Jenks. Fuck him. I love Bobby, he's my all time personal favorite White Sox but fuck him. He's lost velocity on his fastball which has decreased his effectiveness. Plus with guys like Matt Thorton, Chris Sale, and Sergio Santos ready to step up in this bullpen, the Sox don't need Jenks. Plus, I love Kenny's ability to find great bullpen arms like Mike MacDougal.
- I own three White Sox shirts: Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Bobby Jenks. I wear these shirts to the gym and I get the "What the fuck dude, this isn't 2006" look. Whatevs. At least I can wear my Konerko jersey with pride. Unlike those idiots who bought a Ken Griffey Jr. shirt/uniform.
- Sox sign Adam Dunn to a four year $56 million dollar deal. I love it. I understand he's AWFUL at any defensive position and should play DH and not 1B (like he will) but I don't care. He can stop hitting 38 HR like clockwork and start hitting 40+ in Comiskey. I don't care about the money as well because I'll still pay to see this team about 3-4 times a year no matter what and if ticket sales do go up, it'll be minimal to me. Plus, the White Sox are not the Oakland A's. They do not need to be conservative with their money. Plus, if this is actually a good deal (DME tell me if this is or not!) then it's just icing on the cake.
- Sox will probably re-sign Paul Konerko. Last year was probably a career season past 2005 for him but I love him. There are certain players that when you wear their jerseys to the games, you will NEVER get a funny look. Konerko is one of those jerseys. If you go to a Bears game and you see a Rex Grossman jersey you think to yourself, "Get a new fucking jersey dude. This isn't 2006". But Konerko is like wearing a, hmm, I don't want to say Walter Peyton because Konerko was never THAT good, maybe a Fridge jersey? Anyways, you get the point. Paul Konerko will never be that type of "Rex Grossman jersey" player. I would love to see him retire as a White Sock from an emotional aspect and he'll produce WAY better than fucking Mark Kotsay or whoever was in the "rotating DH" spot last year
- Sox give Alexei Ramirez a raise. Great. I love A-Ram, I said he will develop into a good defensive player and he proved me wrong- he developed into a GREAT defensive player and fucktard Derek Jeter stole a Gold Glove from him last year. Plus Alexei's got some great pop. Obviously I'd love to see him get ONE walk in his career but I still want him on my team.
- Sox non-tender Bobby Jenks. Fuck him. I love Bobby, he's my all time personal favorite White Sox but fuck him. He's lost velocity on his fastball which has decreased his effectiveness. Plus with guys like Matt Thorton, Chris Sale, and Sergio Santos ready to step up in this bullpen, the Sox don't need Jenks. Plus, I love Kenny's ability to find great bullpen arms like Mike MacDougal.
- I own three White Sox shirts: Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Bobby Jenks. I wear these shirts to the gym and I get the "What the fuck dude, this isn't 2006" look. Whatevs. At least I can wear my Konerko jersey with pride. Unlike those idiots who bought a Ken Griffey Jr. shirt/uniform.
Quick Thoughts On Manny To The White Sox
While I agree with DME that the most cost effective decision for the White Sox was to sign Jim Thome at the beginning of the year. As a Sox fan, I like the White Sox acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers for just the remainder of Manny's contract. Even though the White Sox are not a big market team like their North Side Chicago counterparts or the Yankees or Red Sox, that hasn't stopped them from spending. And as a fan, I don't care how much the price tag costs for these players. Sure more money for the players could mean a higher ticket price for me, but I only go to 3-4 White Sox games a year and I pay for the cheap-o seats anyways (and those prices don't bother me as much. Maybe it's gone up from the past couple of years, But I don't really care). At the end of the day, all I care about is the product on the field. Case in point- Alex Rios. Would I like a player of his caliber to come cheaper, of course. Do I mind that he's getting paid a crap ton but is also awesome? Not at all. As long as my players perform.And Manny can perform.
Quietly, Manny has a triple slash line of .312/.407/.508 which is good for a .392 wOBA and a .915 OPS. He's walking at exactly his career average (13.6%) and striking out a tick under his career average (21.9% career, 19.6% in 2010). Sure his home runs are way down this year (he only has 8 on the year) and he has an ISO and SLG below his career marks, his 2010 ISO and SLG are still nothing to sneeze at (.196 and .508 respectively). Plus, Manny's only played in 67 games amassing only 236 plate appearance. You know what's also a way to not get a lot of home runs and classic counting stats, not play a whole lot. PLUS, Manny is going from pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium to homer friendly Comiskey.
And of course, Manny will be infinitely better than Mark Kotsay (.303 wOBA, .696 OPS) and somewhat better than Andruw Jones (.353 wOBA, .803 OPS).
I do think this is too little too late, getting Manny for one month isn't the magic antidote to give the White Sox a playoff birth, and his contract is still vastly expensive.
But with that being said, I do like having Manny on the South Side and I like this move a lot.
White Sox Bullpen Brings The Heat
Kenny Williams has a reputation as being a schizophrenic GM in terms of the talent he chooses to supply the White Sox any given season. One year he is playing Ozzie Ball the next he falls in love with the Long Ball. After several seasons of having DJ Carrasco and Ehren Wasserman tossing whiffle balls out of the bullpen, Williams decided to load up on nothing but fireballers. If you don't throw 94, you can't get a parking space in the dome the White Sox call a stadium (take that Sox fans!). Shockingly, only one member of this elite group is a product of the Sox minor league system, and he was just drafted a month ago in the 2010 draft. And as fangraphs has shown, increased velocity is correlated with increased strikeouts, especially at higher velocities. So here is the breakdown of the White Sox bullpen.
Matt Thornton - 96.1 mph, 12.17 K/9
Sergio Santos - 95.8 mph, 9.15 K/9
Chris Sale - 95.5 mph, 11.37 K/9 15K in 6IP in AAA
Bobby jenks - 94.9 mph, 11.3 K/9
Tony Pena - 94.3 mph, 4.89 K/9 WTF?
JJ Putz - 94.0 mph, 10.53 K/9
Scott Linebrink - 93.9 mph, 8.44 K/9
Paging Daniel Hudson
Jake Peavy's detached muscle in his shoulder (which will likely end his 2010 season) clears a rotation spot for top Sox pitching prospect Daniel Hudson. Hudson, a 5th round pick in the 2008 amateur draft, has compiled a 2.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with a 43.5% GB% and a 364/87 K-to-BB ratio in 310.1 IP for his minor league career. Minor League Splits equivocates this production into a 3.94 MLB FIP.
Hudson has been relatively successful in the upper minors. Over 117.1 AAA innings between this year and last, Hudson has accrued a 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 132/40 K-to-BB ratio. A note of concern however: for the season, Hudson's AAA GB% has dipped to 40.7%. This may be a sample size issue, but this is the third consecutive year that Hudson has burned less worms than the last (falling from 50+% in 2008) and the Cell is not one of the better places in the league to lose groundball tendencies (per THT's "top secret" HR/FB% data, U.S. Cellular Field ranks second overall, behind only Citizen's Bank Ballpark, in HR/FB exaggeration with a 21.3% inflation index).
Let's take the above 3.94 MLB-equivalent FIP as the baseline for Hudson's MLB-projection. Assuming he takes over the role of SP5 and goes an average of 6 innings per outing, he would have at most 15 opportunities to start a game for a max innings output of 90. Given that he has already thrown 93.1 innings in the minors this year and only 147.1 innings last year, let's pretend the White Sox care about long term pitcher durability and innings totals and cap his season total innings at 177.1. That number would put Hudson approximately within the 30 innings range of the Verducci Effect and limit him to 84 IP in the majors this year. If Hudson does indeed throw 84 innings, he would allow, again assuming a 3.94 FIP, about 36.77 runs to score.
Right now, the White Sox are on pace to play ~1,444.1 innings of defense with team UZR total of -19.18 per 162 games. Assuming that Chicago's second-half defensive production remains constant, that would give the team a Runs Above Average Allowed per Inning (RAAA/INN) rate of approximately 0.0147. Per 84 innings of play, that would allow an additional ~1.11 runners to score compare with what the league-average defense would allow. If we add this to Hudson's defense-neutral runs allowed, supra, we get 37.88 runs allowed.
Finally, we look at park effects. Per Baseball Reference, U.S. Cellular Field has a park effects index of 8%, meaning total offensive output at the park is exaggerated by 8%. Since the Sox only play half their games at the Cell, we'll use a 4% index. This increases Hudson's theoretical runs allowed total from 38.01 to 39.40 (per 84 IP), yielding a 4.22 ERA.
Personally, I would peg Hudson's ERA over/under for 2010 slightly lower, between 4.00 and 4.20. He has demonstrated above-average control in the minors (2.5 MiLB career BB/9, 3.1 Triple-A) and a keen ability to miss bats (6.9 MiLB career H/9, 7.9 Triple-A plus 10.6 MiLB career K/9, 10.1 Triple-A). Hence, a sub-1.30 WHIP, provided the walks stay in check, would be entirely plausible in my estimation. K/9 might be a more fickle thing to predict. Minor League Splits pegs his career numbers as worth an upper 7's rate (7.69) and his Triple-A numbers in the low to mid-8's (8.67 for 2010). Given his consistent ability to whiff hitters in the minors, I would not be at all shocked if he posted a strikeout per inning. Still, I err on the side of conservatism and say he will post a K/9 somewhere between 8 and 9.
Juan Pierre, Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel and a struggling Gordon Beckham aside, the Sox still have three offensive juggernauts, who should provide plenty of run support, between Rios-Konerko-Quentin. Hence, my final over/under line on Hudson (which you can adjust based on your own IP beliefs) is 84 IP, 5 W, 4.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 79 K.
The bottom line is this: if you had Jake Peavy, you need Daniel Hudson. After Hudson, only Jordan Zimmerman, Edinson Volquez and possibly Brandon Webb stand out as reliable/tantalizing late season starting pitching options with the ability to help fantasy owners in need (with low ownership%).
Hudson has been relatively successful in the upper minors. Over 117.1 AAA innings between this year and last, Hudson has accrued a 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 132/40 K-to-BB ratio. A note of concern however: for the season, Hudson's AAA GB% has dipped to 40.7%. This may be a sample size issue, but this is the third consecutive year that Hudson has burned less worms than the last (falling from 50+% in 2008) and the Cell is not one of the better places in the league to lose groundball tendencies (per THT's "top secret" HR/FB% data, U.S. Cellular Field ranks second overall, behind only Citizen's Bank Ballpark, in HR/FB exaggeration with a 21.3% inflation index).
Let's take the above 3.94 MLB-equivalent FIP as the baseline for Hudson's MLB-projection. Assuming he takes over the role of SP5 and goes an average of 6 innings per outing, he would have at most 15 opportunities to start a game for a max innings output of 90. Given that he has already thrown 93.1 innings in the minors this year and only 147.1 innings last year, let's pretend the White Sox care about long term pitcher durability and innings totals and cap his season total innings at 177.1. That number would put Hudson approximately within the 30 innings range of the Verducci Effect and limit him to 84 IP in the majors this year. If Hudson does indeed throw 84 innings, he would allow, again assuming a 3.94 FIP, about 36.77 runs to score.
Right now, the White Sox are on pace to play ~1,444.1 innings of defense with team UZR total of -19.18 per 162 games. Assuming that Chicago's second-half defensive production remains constant, that would give the team a Runs Above Average Allowed per Inning (RAAA/INN) rate of approximately 0.0147. Per 84 innings of play, that would allow an additional ~1.11 runners to score compare with what the league-average defense would allow. If we add this to Hudson's defense-neutral runs allowed, supra, we get 37.88 runs allowed.
Finally, we look at park effects. Per Baseball Reference, U.S. Cellular Field has a park effects index of 8%, meaning total offensive output at the park is exaggerated by 8%. Since the Sox only play half their games at the Cell, we'll use a 4% index. This increases Hudson's theoretical runs allowed total from 38.01 to 39.40 (per 84 IP), yielding a 4.22 ERA.
Personally, I would peg Hudson's ERA over/under for 2010 slightly lower, between 4.00 and 4.20. He has demonstrated above-average control in the minors (2.5 MiLB career BB/9, 3.1 Triple-A) and a keen ability to miss bats (6.9 MiLB career H/9, 7.9 Triple-A plus 10.6 MiLB career K/9, 10.1 Triple-A). Hence, a sub-1.30 WHIP, provided the walks stay in check, would be entirely plausible in my estimation. K/9 might be a more fickle thing to predict. Minor League Splits pegs his career numbers as worth an upper 7's rate (7.69) and his Triple-A numbers in the low to mid-8's (8.67 for 2010). Given his consistent ability to whiff hitters in the minors, I would not be at all shocked if he posted a strikeout per inning. Still, I err on the side of conservatism and say he will post a K/9 somewhere between 8 and 9.
Juan Pierre, Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel and a struggling Gordon Beckham aside, the Sox still have three offensive juggernauts, who should provide plenty of run support, between Rios-Konerko-Quentin. Hence, my final over/under line on Hudson (which you can adjust based on your own IP beliefs) is 84 IP, 5 W, 4.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 79 K.
The bottom line is this: if you had Jake Peavy, you need Daniel Hudson. After Hudson, only Jordan Zimmerman, Edinson Volquez and possibly Brandon Webb stand out as reliable/tantalizing late season starting pitching options with the ability to help fantasy owners in need (with low ownership%).
Hawk Harrelson Sound Board is Finally Here
Comcast Sportsnet compiled some of the "great" one liners from the mouth of one Hawk Harrelson. Yes, the legend himself who once upon a time invented batting gloves subsequent to inventing the game of baseball. Now you can play the Hawk Harrelson drinking game at any time, cause who actually wants to sit through a White Sox game even if your drunk
Padres Trade Gonzalez To ChiSox For Bechkam, Prospects
According to ESPN and MLBTradeRumors, Adrian Gonzalez has been traded to the Chicago White Sox for Gordan Beckham, Paul Konerko, and some pitching prospects.
This is great value for Adrian Gonzales owners in fantasy. AGon averages about 38-40 home runs in the most pitcher-friendly park and not moves to a park that has been top ten in home runs leaving yard. He could easily rival now Pujols and Howard as the top home run hitter in 2010.
However, from a reality perspective this isn't the greatest deal. The White Sox have a lot of money tied up in Rios and Peavy and I can't imagine they have a lot of money left over to re-sign Gonzalez to a long term deal. And giving away Bacon- who is dirt cheap for the team right now and a player the team could potentially have for another 7,8 years is not really worth the two they'll get from AGon.
Padres on the other hand got a steal. Sure, Konerko and Bacon's home run numbers will deflate- but the same flaws the White Sox had in this trade is an enormous benefit to the Padres. The padres couldn't afford AGon and they now get a top prospect for cheap for many years.
The prospects have not yet been announced in this deal.
This is great value for Adrian Gonzales owners in fantasy. AGon averages about 38-40 home runs in the most pitcher-friendly park and not moves to a park that has been top ten in home runs leaving yard. He could easily rival now Pujols and Howard as the top home run hitter in 2010.
However, from a reality perspective this isn't the greatest deal. The White Sox have a lot of money tied up in Rios and Peavy and I can't imagine they have a lot of money left over to re-sign Gonzalez to a long term deal. And giving away Bacon- who is dirt cheap for the team right now and a player the team could potentially have for another 7,8 years is not really worth the two they'll get from AGon.
Padres on the other hand got a steal. Sure, Konerko and Bacon's home run numbers will deflate- but the same flaws the White Sox had in this trade is an enormous benefit to the Padres. The padres couldn't afford AGon and they now get a top prospect for cheap for many years.
The prospects have not yet been announced in this deal.
White Sox Defense: CHONE
According to CHONE projections, here is what the 2010 White Sox starting line up defense looks like per 150 games:
C-A.J. Pierzynski (-4 runs)
1B-Konerko (+0 runs)
2B-Gordon Beckham (+2 runs)
SS-Alexei Ramirez (-2 runs)
3B-Mark Teahen (-7 run)
LF-Carlos Quentin (-3 runs)
CF-Juan Pierre (+4 runs)
RF-Alex Rios (+0 runs)
That's a -10 run defense at the starting lines; meaning the Sox defense will lose 1 game per every 150 just based on their defense. That's an upgrade over last season, where their starting 9 posted a collective fielding value of -45.5 runs (largely thanks to the departure of Jermaine Dye)
C-A.J. Pierzynski (-4 runs)
1B-Konerko (+0 runs)
2B-Gordon Beckham (+2 runs)
SS-Alexei Ramirez (-2 runs)
3B-Mark Teahen (-7 run)
LF-Carlos Quentin (-3 runs)
CF-Juan Pierre (+4 runs)
RF-Alex Rios (+0 runs)
That's a -10 run defense at the starting lines; meaning the Sox defense will lose 1 game per every 150 just based on their defense. That's an upgrade over last season, where their starting 9 posted a collective fielding value of -45.5 runs (largely thanks to the departure of Jermaine Dye)
Why The White Sox Won't Win The AL Central In 2009
Let me preface this article by saying I'm a huge White Sox fan. I'm not some guy trying to be a hate-ah and I'm definitely not a Cubs fan trying to be a douchebag (aka being a Cubs fan).
The highlight of the team is their pitching. Individually, I think their top four starters (Peavy, Floyd, Buerhle, and Danks) are top five in the league and I'm a big fan of the back end of their bullpen with Putz, Jenks, and Thorton. We sabermetricians (yes, I'm considering myself a sabermetrician) love to analyze how a pitchers stats would look using data like FIP (for Matthew Berry, Nate Ravitz, and everyone out there, FIP stands for Fielding Independent Statistics). And it's this very concept that sabermetrics fails to realize- teams play games with defenses. Just like economists assume people are rational, sabermetrics seem to assume we play games with no defense.
Sure, once the ball is hit off the bat, where that ball lands is completely and utterly random. However, a better defense with a greater range will be able to cover more ground so that random spot where the ball lands will end up being in a pitchers glove. Not only that, pitchers can control, over a full season, whether they are a ground ball or play ball pitcher. A guy, like Mark Buerhle for example, is a ground ball pitcher. He hopes for contact and most of the time, when the ball is hit, it goes on the ground. The best infield defense will be able to pick up that ball on the ground and get that player out. However, when you pitch for contact, you rely on your defense to get outs and the crappier your defense is, the more guys you allow on base before you get three outs.
You hear the old cliche, no not "offense wins games, but defense wins championships"- the other one- "pitching and defense". The reason it's not pitching alone, because a pitcher can't strike EVERYBODY out (even Nolan Ryan and Tim Lincecum need their defense SOMETIMES). And the crappier pitcher you are, the more you need to rely on your defense (Although even the the Brewers defense won't make Jeff Suppan good).
Which brings me to my central thesis: the White Sox defense is so bad that it will negate their pitching talent so as to not win the division.
Last year, Jayson Nix was an amazing defender. In 52 games at 2B he had a 14.5 UZR/150 and a 4.8 RF/9. (He also helped out a bit at third posting a 4.9 UZR/150 and a 2.2 RF/9 in 12 games). So despite walking 9.7% of the time, a .249 BABIP, and great defense- the Sox reward him by taking him out of the lineup. While it's a good thing they didn't replace him with Chris Getz (-6.7 UZR/150 and 5.0 RF/9 in 106 games), they still did replace him with a crappy defender- Gordon Beckham.
At third base, Beckham had negative defensive value with his -2.0 Fielding Value (maybe fangraphs need to be a BIT more creative with their stats). He had a -2.8 UZR/150 and a 2.8 RF/9 in 102 games. While this is a very small sample size and the dude is INCREDIBLY young and played SS in college, I am not optimistic that Beckham will produce positive defense playing at a harder defensive position.
But even as bad of a season as Beckham had last year, the brilliant Kenny Williams decided to upgrade with the fabulous Mark Teahen.(I guess the sarcasm on the page doesn't come off as well as it does in my head). Here's Teahen's UZR/150 for the past four years: -10.9, -23.9, 0.4, and -17.6 at 3B. Teahen's total UZR/150 at third is -10.1.
Now we move on to the infield that actually produced. First, we have Alexei Ramirez. Probably the best proof that Gordan Beckham can be good defensively. In 2008 Ramirez posted an awful -12.5 UZR/150 and a 3.9 RF/9 to a +2.4 UZR/150 and a 4.4 in 2009.`This shows positive signs that Ramirez will still have positive defense, he's still only a league average SS defender. Last year, Ramirez was the 18th best SS defender. I know I should be happy that the hardest defensive position produces positive results, but it's still disappointing to see Alexei be just one step above being negative.
Lastly, we move to the Paul Konerko. Last year was Konerko's best defensive season posting a +3.2 UZR/150. However, this was inconsistent with Konerko's previous seasons. He has never had a positive UZR/150 above .08 and four out of the past eight years, Konerko had a negative UZR/150 so the chances that Konerko's defense will even be positive is pretty low.
However, I am optimistic about the White Sox outfield next year. Sure, they're stuck with Carlos Quentin's -14.1 UZR/150 and 0 RF/9 in 223 games in the OF, but adding Juan Pierre is a HUGE upgrade from Jermaine Dye and Alex Rios had an uncharacteristically awful year last year. Last year, JD had a -24.5 UZR/150 and a 2.0 RF/9 so Juan Pierre's career 5.6 UZR/150 should be a big step up. Also, Alex Rios has a career 12.3 UZR/150. Plus here's his OF UZR/150 for the past four years minus 2009: +9.7, +13.7, +9.2, +27.5. His his -5.8 UZR/150 is extremely out of the norm for him and even is he return to his floor (about a +9.0), he should be MUCH better than what he was last year and what DeWayne Wise and Brian Anderson were.
So maybe it's just the cynic in me, but I just don't see the defense as a whole being all that good. 1B, 2B, 3B, and LF will all probably have negative UZR/150. So even though the OF will be much improved and the SS will be positive, I feel the defense as a whole will be below average- thus negatively affecting the pitching staff and thus losing enough games to not win the division.
Although I hope I'm wrong.
NOTE: I wrote this post thinking that Rios and Pierre would be really bad defenders and to my dismay and already halfway done, I realized they will be huge upgrades to the 2009 OF. So maybe that OF will help the pitchers a lot more than I thought but I still contend the Sox stay close all year and either the Twins and Tigers win it. That's just the cynic in me.
The highlight of the team is their pitching. Individually, I think their top four starters (Peavy, Floyd, Buerhle, and Danks) are top five in the league and I'm a big fan of the back end of their bullpen with Putz, Jenks, and Thorton. We sabermetricians (yes, I'm considering myself a sabermetrician) love to analyze how a pitchers stats would look using data like FIP (for Matthew Berry, Nate Ravitz, and everyone out there, FIP stands for Fielding Independent Statistics). And it's this very concept that sabermetrics fails to realize- teams play games with defenses. Just like economists assume people are rational, sabermetrics seem to assume we play games with no defense.
Sure, once the ball is hit off the bat, where that ball lands is completely and utterly random. However, a better defense with a greater range will be able to cover more ground so that random spot where the ball lands will end up being in a pitchers glove. Not only that, pitchers can control, over a full season, whether they are a ground ball or play ball pitcher. A guy, like Mark Buerhle for example, is a ground ball pitcher. He hopes for contact and most of the time, when the ball is hit, it goes on the ground. The best infield defense will be able to pick up that ball on the ground and get that player out. However, when you pitch for contact, you rely on your defense to get outs and the crappier your defense is, the more guys you allow on base before you get three outs.
You hear the old cliche, no not "offense wins games, but defense wins championships"- the other one- "pitching and defense". The reason it's not pitching alone, because a pitcher can't strike EVERYBODY out (even Nolan Ryan and Tim Lincecum need their defense SOMETIMES). And the crappier pitcher you are, the more you need to rely on your defense (Although even the the Brewers defense won't make Jeff Suppan good).
Which brings me to my central thesis: the White Sox defense is so bad that it will negate their pitching talent so as to not win the division.
Last year, Jayson Nix was an amazing defender. In 52 games at 2B he had a 14.5 UZR/150 and a 4.8 RF/9. (He also helped out a bit at third posting a 4.9 UZR/150 and a 2.2 RF/9 in 12 games). So despite walking 9.7% of the time, a .249 BABIP, and great defense- the Sox reward him by taking him out of the lineup. While it's a good thing they didn't replace him with Chris Getz (-6.7 UZR/150 and 5.0 RF/9 in 106 games), they still did replace him with a crappy defender- Gordon Beckham.
At third base, Beckham had negative defensive value with his -2.0 Fielding Value (maybe fangraphs need to be a BIT more creative with their stats). He had a -2.8 UZR/150 and a 2.8 RF/9 in 102 games. While this is a very small sample size and the dude is INCREDIBLY young and played SS in college, I am not optimistic that Beckham will produce positive defense playing at a harder defensive position.
But even as bad of a season as Beckham had last year, the brilliant Kenny Williams decided to upgrade with the fabulous Mark Teahen.(I guess the sarcasm on the page doesn't come off as well as it does in my head). Here's Teahen's UZR/150 for the past four years: -10.9, -23.9, 0.4, and -17.6 at 3B. Teahen's total UZR/150 at third is -10.1.
Now we move on to the infield that actually produced. First, we have Alexei Ramirez. Probably the best proof that Gordan Beckham can be good defensively. In 2008 Ramirez posted an awful -12.5 UZR/150 and a 3.9 RF/9 to a +2.4 UZR/150 and a 4.4 in 2009.`This shows positive signs that Ramirez will still have positive defense, he's still only a league average SS defender. Last year, Ramirez was the 18th best SS defender. I know I should be happy that the hardest defensive position produces positive results, but it's still disappointing to see Alexei be just one step above being negative.
Lastly, we move to the Paul Konerko. Last year was Konerko's best defensive season posting a +3.2 UZR/150. However, this was inconsistent with Konerko's previous seasons. He has never had a positive UZR/150 above .08 and four out of the past eight years, Konerko had a negative UZR/150 so the chances that Konerko's defense will even be positive is pretty low.
However, I am optimistic about the White Sox outfield next year. Sure, they're stuck with Carlos Quentin's -14.1 UZR/150 and 0 RF/9 in 223 games in the OF, but adding Juan Pierre is a HUGE upgrade from Jermaine Dye and Alex Rios had an uncharacteristically awful year last year. Last year, JD had a -24.5 UZR/150 and a 2.0 RF/9 so Juan Pierre's career 5.6 UZR/150 should be a big step up. Also, Alex Rios has a career 12.3 UZR/150. Plus here's his OF UZR/150 for the past four years minus 2009: +9.7, +13.7, +9.2, +27.5. His his -5.8 UZR/150 is extremely out of the norm for him and even is he return to his floor (about a +9.0), he should be MUCH better than what he was last year and what DeWayne Wise and Brian Anderson were.
So maybe it's just the cynic in me, but I just don't see the defense as a whole being all that good. 1B, 2B, 3B, and LF will all probably have negative UZR/150. So even though the OF will be much improved and the SS will be positive, I feel the defense as a whole will be below average- thus negatively affecting the pitching staff and thus losing enough games to not win the division.
Although I hope I'm wrong.
NOTE: I wrote this post thinking that Rios and Pierre would be really bad defenders and to my dismay and already halfway done, I realized they will be huge upgrades to the 2009 OF. So maybe that OF will help the pitchers a lot more than I thought but I still contend the Sox stay close all year and either the Twins and Tigers win it. That's just the cynic in me.
Sox 5 percent more annoying than Cubs
I'm a little surprised the Bears are not higher on the list. I guess people simply stopped complaining after Jay Cutlers 3rd 4-interception game of the year
Dayton Moron Likes Shitty White Sox Players
Previously, I pointed out that the Orioles have been a graveyard for washed up Cubs players in recent years. Kansas City is looking to be the White Sox equivalent (Moore has made more trades with Kenny Williams (now 5) than any other GM during his brief reign as GM of the Royals). According to MLBTradeRumors, the Royals are close to signing "a speedy outfielder" who is speculated to be Scott Podsednik. That would put the following ex-White Sox on the 25-man roster since Moore took over as GM in 2006:
C-Miguel Olivo
1B-Ross Gload
2B-Chris Getz*
3B-Josh Fields*
INF-Tony Graffanino
OF-Scott Podsednik*
OF-Brian Anderson*
SP-Kip Wells
RP-Horacio Ramirez
RP-David Riske
*-added this offseason
From this list, I see a bunch of utility players and DFA candidates. Is it possible to build a 25-man roster of White Sox-turned-Royals players since 2002? We've already got an infield.
If you make this a revolving door system and include the crap Kenny Williams has taken from the Royals, you could also add the following players to our hypothetical team:
3B-Mark Teahen
CL-Mike MacDougal
CL-Octavio Dotel
RP-Jimmy Gobble
RP-Andy Sisco
RP-D.J. Carrasco
C-Paul Phillips
C-Miguel Olivo
1B-Ross Gload
2B-Chris Getz*
3B-Josh Fields*
INF-Tony Graffanino
OF-Scott Podsednik*
OF-Brian Anderson*
SP-Kip Wells
RP-Horacio Ramirez
RP-David Riske
*-added this offseason
From this list, I see a bunch of utility players and DFA candidates. Is it possible to build a 25-man roster of White Sox-turned-Royals players since 2002? We've already got an infield.
If you make this a revolving door system and include the crap Kenny Williams has taken from the Royals, you could also add the following players to our hypothetical team:
3B-Mark Teahen
CL-Mike MacDougal
CL-Octavio Dotel
RP-Jimmy Gobble
RP-Andy Sisco
RP-D.J. Carrasco
C-Paul Phillips
Meet your "Media Person of the Year"
Some website called Chicago Baseball Museum announced it's yearly awards in Chicago baseball. You will not believe who won "media person of the year". I'm giddy with excitement to announce the winner. The greatest, most influential, revolutionary voice in the history of sports media: Christopher Rongey. Take that numbers.
You all remember Chris Rongey, right? The glorious day DME called into The Score 670 to teach Chris Rongey, the White Sox pre and post game host, that numbers can tell you much more about a player than blind faith. Just because someone is "established" and "was once an all-star" doesnt make up for a 3 year decline is power, K/BB, speed, and defense.
"But I dont care about your stupid numbers, because numbers are not reality!! Oh, and your blog sucks cause it's obviously infected with numbers. Did I mention I hate numbers." - Yep, Rongey is definitely the "voice of reason"...for people who can't add.
Listen to Rongey getting owned by DME
The White Sox free agents
The White Sox have two big free agents. They are leadoff man Scott Podsednik, and the aging Jermaine Dye. The White Sox are probably going to cut ties with Jermaine Dye because his bat seems to be slowing down and he struggled down the stretch last season. He was a anchor of the team for the past 5 years, but his career looks to be going on the downslide. Jermaine Dye batted .250, 340 on base percentage, 27 homeruns, 81 RBI’s, in 503 at-bats. His numbers were solid, but he struggled after June where he batted .329. In July he batted 245, followed by an August of .189 and a September and October of .175. Thus, he seemed to be on a drastic decline.
Scott Podsednik did well leading off for the White Sox this past season. His career seemed over after being released from the Rockeis before the season started, but Williams brought him back for a second chance. Podsednik took advantage of the second chance and did well leading off with a .304 average, 30 stolen bases, 75 runs scored, in 537 at-bats. Scott Podsednik is not a great leadoff man or a great player, but he is a good cheap option to leadoff. He does have speed and can steal bases. He wouldn’t be my first choice, but if the White Sox can’t sign a Chone Figgins or get someone better, he would be a good option on a low priced one year contract. I think they will bring him back for one more year.
They Sox have many other options this off season. The Sox are interesting on what they will do this off season. They have a lot of versatility and options with their infield and outfield. The Sox made it clear they want to use the DH to rotate starters and give players a rest. They also have prospects they may give a chance, and players why may switch positions. Thus, it is hard to predict what they will do this off-season because they have so many options.
Scott Podsednik did well leading off for the White Sox this past season. His career seemed over after being released from the Rockeis before the season started, but Williams brought him back for a second chance. Podsednik took advantage of the second chance and did well leading off with a .304 average, 30 stolen bases, 75 runs scored, in 537 at-bats. Scott Podsednik is not a great leadoff man or a great player, but he is a good cheap option to leadoff. He does have speed and can steal bases. He wouldn’t be my first choice, but if the White Sox can’t sign a Chone Figgins or get someone better, he would be a good option on a low priced one year contract. I think they will bring him back for one more year.
They Sox have many other options this off season. The Sox are interesting on what they will do this off season. They have a lot of versatility and options with their infield and outfield. The Sox made it clear they want to use the DH to rotate starters and give players a rest. They also have prospects they may give a chance, and players why may switch positions. Thus, it is hard to predict what they will do this off-season because they have so many options.
Sox Sign Mark Kotsay
The White Sox had three free agents in Mark Kotsay, Scott Podsednik, and Jermaine Dye. They have just signed Mark Kotsay to a one-year $1.5 million contract. Kotsay started last season with the Red Sox and came over in the Brian Anderson trade. Kotsay was struggling at the time with the RedSox and needed a change of scenery. He played very well for the White sox batting .292, with three homers, and 18 RBIs in 40 games for the White Sox. Kotsay seemed to form a bond with the team last year in those 40 games. He provided the team with a lot of versatility because he can play all three outfield spots, first base, and of course DH.
Kotsay has played for 13 years with a career average of .281 with 113 home runs. He used to be an above average centerfielder when he was younger. Since the start of the 1998 season he ranks third among all Major League outfielders with 114 assists. He trails Bobby Abreu (121) and Vladimir Guerrero (115). He is a great role player for this team because of his defense, speed, left handed bat, and flexibility. His lifetime average as a pinch-hitter is .342. If an outfielder or first basemen goes down he will be an adequate fill in. This is a minor move for the White Sox……………but a big move for the team.
Kotsay has played for 13 years with a career average of .281 with 113 home runs. He used to be an above average centerfielder when he was younger. Since the start of the 1998 season he ranks third among all Major League outfielders with 114 assists. He trails Bobby Abreu (121) and Vladimir Guerrero (115). He is a great role player for this team because of his defense, speed, left handed bat, and flexibility. His lifetime average as a pinch-hitter is .342. If an outfielder or first basemen goes down he will be an adequate fill in. This is a minor move for the White Sox……………but a big move for the team.
The Great Floyd-Danks Swap
Last offseason, I repeatedly advised drafters to avoid Gavin Floyd and instead draft John Danks. Although the surface numbers say I was right (Danks has a 3.69 ERA and 13 Ws compared to Floyd's 4.06 ERA and 11 Ws), the peripherals disagree.
Last season, Gavin Floyd struck out a below average 6.32 batters per nine, walked a decent 3.05 per nine and a gave up a sustainable 1.2 longballs per nine (given his neutral GB/FB tendencies) -- good for a 4.77 FIP and one of the largest ERA-FIP splits in the league (going in the bad direction, that is). John Danks, on the other hand struck out a slightly above average 7.34 batters per nine, walked a very quality 2.63 per nine and only gave up 0.69 HR/9 (slightly low, given the 1.20 GB/FB rate) and showed a lot of potential, posting a 3.44 FIP in his age 23 season.
This season, Danks and Floyd have essentially flipped numbers. Floyd's posting a 7.60 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.98 HR/9 (1.34 GB/FB rate), taking all of the right steps in the right directions. His FIP fell a full run to 3.77. Danks, on the other hand, regressed across the board. The strike out rate fell to 6.82, the walk rate ballooned half a batter per game to 3.18 and he became less groundball oriented (1.06 GB/FB) and saw his HR/9 rate spike up to 1.20. Danks' season FIP currently stands at 4.44
I have to admit I was entirely wrong in my judgment of these two player's abilities. Floyd had the first round pedigree and I was entirely too quick to dismiss him. I still believe in Danks, but looking at his HR/FB rates per season, which have been lucky so far in his career, and his big step back in K/BB this season, I no longer have the strong belief I once did that he was to be, as I once called him, "the future of the White Sox rotation" (especially now that the Sox have Peavy).
Going forward, however, what can we expect? Floyd has posted a sustainable HR/FB rate each of the past two seasons and unless he gets extremely unlucky next season or if it turns out the gains in K and BB per nine he made in 2009 we flukes, Gavin Floyd should be poised to have a big 2010 season. A 1.25 WHIP, sub-4 ERA and double digit wins season are entirely plausible. He may provide great fantasy profit next season if his ADP doesn't balloon too high.
Danks, on the other hand, might be a candidate to avoid. The regressions in GB tendencies, walks and strikeouts are more than a bit concerning. Its not implausible to expect some regression towards his 2008 numbers in these areas, but there is still HR/FB regression looming. The league average HR/FB rate amongst pitchers is 11% and a lot of studies have shown this figure to be beyond the control of the pitcher. Couple this with the home run happy Cell and you may share some of my concerns about what John Danks does going forward.
Regardless, it will be interested to see how the White Sox rotation develops for 2010.
Last season, Gavin Floyd struck out a below average 6.32 batters per nine, walked a decent 3.05 per nine and a gave up a sustainable 1.2 longballs per nine (given his neutral GB/FB tendencies) -- good for a 4.77 FIP and one of the largest ERA-FIP splits in the league (going in the bad direction, that is). John Danks, on the other hand struck out a slightly above average 7.34 batters per nine, walked a very quality 2.63 per nine and only gave up 0.69 HR/9 (slightly low, given the 1.20 GB/FB rate) and showed a lot of potential, posting a 3.44 FIP in his age 23 season.
This season, Danks and Floyd have essentially flipped numbers. Floyd's posting a 7.60 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.98 HR/9 (1.34 GB/FB rate), taking all of the right steps in the right directions. His FIP fell a full run to 3.77. Danks, on the other hand, regressed across the board. The strike out rate fell to 6.82, the walk rate ballooned half a batter per game to 3.18 and he became less groundball oriented (1.06 GB/FB) and saw his HR/9 rate spike up to 1.20. Danks' season FIP currently stands at 4.44
I have to admit I was entirely wrong in my judgment of these two player's abilities. Floyd had the first round pedigree and I was entirely too quick to dismiss him. I still believe in Danks, but looking at his HR/FB rates per season, which have been lucky so far in his career, and his big step back in K/BB this season, I no longer have the strong belief I once did that he was to be, as I once called him, "the future of the White Sox rotation" (especially now that the Sox have Peavy).
Going forward, however, what can we expect? Floyd has posted a sustainable HR/FB rate each of the past two seasons and unless he gets extremely unlucky next season or if it turns out the gains in K and BB per nine he made in 2009 we flukes, Gavin Floyd should be poised to have a big 2010 season. A 1.25 WHIP, sub-4 ERA and double digit wins season are entirely plausible. He may provide great fantasy profit next season if his ADP doesn't balloon too high.
Danks, on the other hand, might be a candidate to avoid. The regressions in GB tendencies, walks and strikeouts are more than a bit concerning. Its not implausible to expect some regression towards his 2008 numbers in these areas, but there is still HR/FB regression looming. The league average HR/FB rate amongst pitchers is 11% and a lot of studies have shown this figure to be beyond the control of the pitcher. Couple this with the home run happy Cell and you may share some of my concerns about what John Danks does going forward.
Regardless, it will be interested to see how the White Sox rotation develops for 2010.
