I am diligently working towards rounding out my third semester of law school, so let me make this post brief, to the point, and unsubstantiated by proof (like about 1/2 of all plaintiff law suits):
1. The Cubs signed Carlos Pena to a 1-year/$10 million dollar deal last night. I could not be happier. Sure, the Cubs will not be competition in 2010 (barring some unforeseen lightning in the bottle a la the 2010 Padres), but at least we'll be hitting home runs again. I can't remember the last time a Cub hit 40 home runs in a season. Oh wait, yes I can: 2005 Derrek Lee!
2. Speaking of home runs, the Cubs came this close to trading for my perpetual man crush, Chris Davis, last night. The deal would have sent catcher Robinson Chirinos (plus an unpolished 22-year old arm, Rafael Dolis, who has periodically hit triple digits on the radar gun) to the Rangers for Davis and Darren O'Day. Even with Pena briefly in the fold, I would like this deal (Davis is only 24, had 4 seasons of team control remaining) for the long term and even 2011, if the Cubs end up flipping Pena for a prospect mid-season. I won't repeat myself for the billionth time, but Davis is a high power, high strikeout, some walk, tons of line drives hitter. A .280/.335/.520 line is more than plausible at Wrigley.
3. White Sox re-sign aging Paul Konerko to a 3-year/$37.5 million dollar contract. Can't blame Kenny on this one. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf stepped into Williams' affairs and pulled the trigger. Williams in now reporting the Sox are out of financial wiggle room, which might be problematic with 2 of the team's best bullpen arms (Putz, Jenks) leaving via free agency, while Linebrink (overpaid, but effective last year) has been traded away. The Sox seem to be riding big on Thornton/Santos/Pena in the pen with a splash of Chris Sale, who is supposed to be a promising starter, placed in the mix.
Showing posts with label Chris Davis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chris Davis. Show all posts
A Second Look At Chris Davis
Before you say it, I realize that the sample sizes here are incredibly minute. I'm going to do analysis anyways.
After hitting .188/.264/.292 to start the season, Chris Davis was sent down to AAA to make room for Justin Smoak, who currently is hitting .215/.333/.382 on the season. Though Smoak has been a highly touted prospect the past few seasons, there's been very little fire through his first 171 PA (sample size!) in the majors. Is Smoak really a better option for the Rangers than Davis? Let's dig into the numbers.
Anyone who reads this blog, knows me, or listens to this podcast knows how much I (irrationally) love Chris Davis. Davis is an all-or-nothing hitter who makes great contact (career 22.6% line drive hitter) when he actually makes contact (below average career 65.5% contact rate). As I noted in the offseason, Chris Davis' 2010 prospects solely hinged upon his strikeout rate. If Davis could keep his strikeout rate in the mid-20% range as he did in the second half of 2009, he would be an invaluable asset. If not, well, he'd hit like he did in the first half of 2009.
Before his demotion this season, Chris Davis was striking out at an unacceptable, 2010 David Wright-like 35.4% clip. Though this K% is lower than last season's 38.4% rate, it seemed like Davis was taking steps back from the strides he made in the second half of last year and in the minors last season. However, a closer look at his numbers reveals otherwise.
Davis' problem at the plate has always been contact issues with pitches outside of the zone. His career O-Contact% of 47.9% is well below the 61+% MLB average (66.4% this season). Though this season has been no exception for Davis with respect to pitches outside the zone (36.7% O-Contact% this season), he was taking fewer hacks at those pitches this season (a career low 33% swing rate at O-Zone pitches versus a career 35.2% mark). The results have been a career high 9.4% walk rate and a career low Swinging Strike rate (SwStr%) of 15% (~20% lower than last year's 19.1% mark).
Given his second half strides with strikeouts last year and his improving approach at the plate this season, Davis's 35.4% seems unluckily and unnaturally high (Bad Umping, close call 3rd strikes -- with Davis only getting 53 PA in the majors this season, a single K% has a ~2% point impact on his K%). Something more in the 27-28% range seems more feasible.
Perhaps more concerning for Davis this season was the lack of home runs, though again, 53 PA is a terrible sample from which to draw conclusions about a player's power. His .104 ISO is half of what it was last season. These worries, however, might be put to rest by a look at Chris Davis' current minor league numbers. Minor League Splits does not have 2010 data for Davis to translate into major league production, but he is currently hitting .333/.392/.519 in AAA. Davis' 2010 AAA-ISO of .186 is well below his .268 minor league career mark, but its still light years ahead what we might dub "Darren Erstad power."
For his minor league career, Davis is a .309/.370/.577 hitter. Minor League Splits says this his minor league track record is worth a .246/.290/.437 major league line with ~28 HR per 650 AB. At the major league level, Davis owns a .253/.302/.475 line with ~33.5 HR per 650 AB.
Justin Smoak, meanwhile, has a career minor league line of .293/.404/.454, which Minor League Splits says is worth a .222/.309/.328 line with 14 HR per 650 AB. His career MLB performance to date (SAMPLE SIZE!!) is .215/.333/.382 with ~27 HR per 650 AB.
Though minor league numbers are hardly the end-all, be-all predictor of major league success, given both player's struggles in the majors, I'll take the guy with the better minor league track any day of the week. This post is not a knock on Smoak, who I think will mature into a Derrek Lee a la 2008-like hitter, so much as it is a reaffirmation of my belief in Chris Davis. Another player with great minor league numbers who bounced around a lot before given a bona fide chance is Nelson Cruz, and we all know how that story turned out. Davis does not even have 800 PA to his name and he's already shown that he has legitimate HR power. Given his contact issues with out-of-zone pitches and a below average walk rate, Davis may never succeed at the MLB level (or at least not hit consistently, think Jonny Gomes). However, Davis is a guy who deserves a chance. He flashed what he can do in 2008 and late 2009 and that kind of upside is worth a gamble.
Perhaps he needs a change of scenery. The Cubs would be more than glad to accommodate him, I'm sure.
After hitting .188/.264/.292 to start the season, Chris Davis was sent down to AAA to make room for Justin Smoak, who currently is hitting .215/.333/.382 on the season. Though Smoak has been a highly touted prospect the past few seasons, there's been very little fire through his first 171 PA (sample size!) in the majors. Is Smoak really a better option for the Rangers than Davis? Let's dig into the numbers.
Anyone who reads this blog, knows me, or listens to this podcast knows how much I (irrationally) love Chris Davis. Davis is an all-or-nothing hitter who makes great contact (career 22.6% line drive hitter) when he actually makes contact (below average career 65.5% contact rate). As I noted in the offseason, Chris Davis' 2010 prospects solely hinged upon his strikeout rate. If Davis could keep his strikeout rate in the mid-20% range as he did in the second half of 2009, he would be an invaluable asset. If not, well, he'd hit like he did in the first half of 2009.
Before his demotion this season, Chris Davis was striking out at an unacceptable, 2010 David Wright-like 35.4% clip. Though this K% is lower than last season's 38.4% rate, it seemed like Davis was taking steps back from the strides he made in the second half of last year and in the minors last season. However, a closer look at his numbers reveals otherwise.
Davis' problem at the plate has always been contact issues with pitches outside of the zone. His career O-Contact% of 47.9% is well below the 61+% MLB average (66.4% this season). Though this season has been no exception for Davis with respect to pitches outside the zone (36.7% O-Contact% this season), he was taking fewer hacks at those pitches this season (a career low 33% swing rate at O-Zone pitches versus a career 35.2% mark). The results have been a career high 9.4% walk rate and a career low Swinging Strike rate (SwStr%) of 15% (~20% lower than last year's 19.1% mark).
Given his second half strides with strikeouts last year and his improving approach at the plate this season, Davis's 35.4% seems unluckily and unnaturally high (Bad Umping, close call 3rd strikes -- with Davis only getting 53 PA in the majors this season, a single K% has a ~2% point impact on his K%). Something more in the 27-28% range seems more feasible.
Perhaps more concerning for Davis this season was the lack of home runs, though again, 53 PA is a terrible sample from which to draw conclusions about a player's power. His .104 ISO is half of what it was last season. These worries, however, might be put to rest by a look at Chris Davis' current minor league numbers. Minor League Splits does not have 2010 data for Davis to translate into major league production, but he is currently hitting .333/.392/.519 in AAA. Davis' 2010 AAA-ISO of .186 is well below his .268 minor league career mark, but its still light years ahead what we might dub "Darren Erstad power."
For his minor league career, Davis is a .309/.370/.577 hitter. Minor League Splits says this his minor league track record is worth a .246/.290/.437 major league line with ~28 HR per 650 AB. At the major league level, Davis owns a .253/.302/.475 line with ~33.5 HR per 650 AB.
Justin Smoak, meanwhile, has a career minor league line of .293/.404/.454, which Minor League Splits says is worth a .222/.309/.328 line with 14 HR per 650 AB. His career MLB performance to date (SAMPLE SIZE!!) is .215/.333/.382 with ~27 HR per 650 AB.
Though minor league numbers are hardly the end-all, be-all predictor of major league success, given both player's struggles in the majors, I'll take the guy with the better minor league track any day of the week. This post is not a knock on Smoak, who I think will mature into a Derrek Lee a la 2008-like hitter, so much as it is a reaffirmation of my belief in Chris Davis. Another player with great minor league numbers who bounced around a lot before given a bona fide chance is Nelson Cruz, and we all know how that story turned out. Davis does not even have 800 PA to his name and he's already shown that he has legitimate HR power. Given his contact issues with out-of-zone pitches and a below average walk rate, Davis may never succeed at the MLB level (or at least not hit consistently, think Jonny Gomes). However, Davis is a guy who deserves a chance. He flashed what he can do in 2008 and late 2009 and that kind of upside is worth a gamble.
Perhaps he needs a change of scenery. The Cubs would be more than glad to accommodate him, I'm sure.
Will The Real Chris Davis Please Stand Up?
In 2008, Chris Davis exploded into the majors in a big way. After trolling through the minors with a .257+ ISO at every level of play, he smacked 17 HR in a mere 317 PA with a .285 Batting Average (AVG) and .264 ISO to boot. The strikeout rate was a bit high (29.8% in the majors that season), but acceptable for a power hitter like Davis -- especially given his prodigious line drive rate of 25.5%, a number which was top 10 amongst all major league hitters with 300 PA in 2008. Matched with a slightly below average, but acceptable 4.1 speed score, Davis seemed primed for a big season for Texas entering 2009. He had unquestionable power (40 HR between AA, AAA, and the majors in 2008) and the hitting abilities to sustain a quality batting average. This was especially important given the low walk rate (6.3% in 2008, MLB average was 8.7% that year).Bill James pegged him for a monstrous 40 HR, .300 BA, 100+ R/RBI season. True, James is historically generous in his offensive predictions, but even by his standards, James was big on Davis. So were many fantasy owners; his MDC in early February 2009 over at MDC was top 70 and creeping up. Only one question lingered: what of the strikeout rate?
A 30% strikeout rate is clearly not desirable, but it is far from the end of the world. Other guys who struck out (much) more such as Justin Upton, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Pena all have managed to be valuable in both fantasy baseball and in real life. The strikeouts clearly limited Chris Davis' AVG upside, but much of this risk was mitigated by 1) a sweet swing and strong line drive talents and 2) a minor league strikeout rate of 24.3% through 1345 PA. At worse, a .250 AVG, a la Dunn or Pena, seemed to be the downside.
How wrong everyone was. Davis managed to disappoint in almost every way possible in his 2009 campaign. His strikeout rate was a toxic 38.4% (second only to Mark Reynolds), his ISO fell to .205 (still strong, just not as strong) and his AVG plummeted from .285 in 2008 to .238 in 2009. Most of the left handed hitters struggles came against lefties. Whereas Davis was able to hold his own against lefties in 2008 (.279 AVG, .314 ISO, 33.7% K), Davis was simply unable to hit them in 2009 (.189 AVG, .123 ISO, 40.2% K rate). His numbers against righties also took a sizable hit, but the .260 BA and .242 ISO against righties in 2009 were at least "acceptable" and within the foreseeable scope of Davis' risk when you drafted him. To make matters worse, Davis managed to do all of this with a .324 BABIP (.326 xBABIP).
Whereas many pegged Davis for a season of greatness (and paid a premium price for it), he barely managed to even get 417 PA of playing time. In no short sense of the term, Chris Davis burned many fantasy owners last year and he did it bad.
However, as I will outline below, there are reasons for hope. Chris Davis may be a, if not the, post-hype sleeper to own for 2010 and he's got a low enough ADP and a strong enough reverse brand name effect (see Liriano, Francisco) to deter people from drafting him too high (if at all) in 2010. What are these reasons for hope? Three words: decreased strikeout rate.
After posting a putrid 41.2% strikeout rate thru his first 277 PA, Davis was sent down to the minors to work on his plate approach. There, he managed to slice his strikeout rate to 23.6% over 194 PA and earn himself a mid-late August call up to the majors. Over those final 142 PA last season, Chris Davis only struck out 25.4% of the time. This, along with his strong line drive rate (over 22%), led to a .308 BA in his final 142 PA. He also smacked 6 HR to boot. This decreased propensity to strikeout has carried over to 2010. Through 51 spring PA, Chris Davis has only 12 strikeouts (23.5% K%) to his name. Yes, this is just spring training, but such is a very encouraging sign.
No one has ever doubted Chris Davis' power. Even last year, with a decreased ISO, he managed 27 between the majors and AAA. No one has likewise question his ability to hit when he makes contact. Even last year, Davis managed to post a 20.6% line drive rate, placing him in the quarter of all MLB hitters with 400+ PA. The only aspect of Davis' game which was ever in question was his propensity to swing (53.4% of the time vs the 45.2% MLB average) and miss (63.2% of the time vs the 80.5% MLB average). When you swing as much as Vladimir Guerrero but make contact like Carlos Pena, especially without the walks, there are serious questions regarding your ability to get on base and hit for average.
However, the decreased strikeout rate in the majors/minors/spring training since lends me to believe that his 277 PA sample size from the first half of 2009 was a fluke. I won't peg Davis for a .300 AVG season any time soon, but a .280-.285 season, a la 2008? Why not? Who is to say Chris Davis cannot do in 2010 what he was largely forecast to do in 2009? Batting in the lower 1/3 of the order will surely not help his R/RBI totals, but a strong performance should lead to a promotion in a lineup that features such health risks as Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton.I will concede that Davis may simply bust again in 2010. He still swings and misses a lot and does not walk. However, when he makes contact, it is of the best kind you could ask for. Davis won't cost you a lot, if anything, in most draft/auction leagues and he bring a lot of upside to the table. He is definitely worth the risk, in my opinion. I wouldn't necessarily bank your 2010 season on him (though I have Davis in all of my leagues, I also have Gordon Beckham or some other reliable backup option at my disposal), you should not be shocked to see him do big things for fantasy owners this year. Haters be warned. You officially have notice.
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Chris Davis: Texas' Toxic Threebagger
Coming into the season, I was big on three sluggers who I felt flew way under the radar going into draft day: Nelson Cruz, Joey Votto and Chris Davis. All three of these hitters showed enormous power potential in the minors and put together similarly quality (partial) seasons last year:
Joey Votto: 589 AB, .297 AVG, 69 R, 84 RBI, 24 HR, 7 SB
Nelson Cruz: 115 AB, .330 AVG, 19 R, 26 RBI, 7 HR, 3 SB (on pace for a 35 HR, 15 SB, 95 R, 130 RBI season)
Chris Davis: 295 AB, .285 AVG, 51 R, 55 RBI, 17 HR, 1 SB (on pace for a 35 HR, 100 R, 110 RBI season)
Given Dusty Baker's hatred/abuse of young players, Nelson Cruz's AAAA career and Bill James' overwhelming approval of Chris Davis (he called him one of the few guys who would legitimately reach 40 HR this season), Davis seemed like the safest choice of the bunch -- and his 70 ADP on MockDraftCentral, which was the lowest of these three guys, reflected and reaffirmed this belief.
However, now almost 3 months through the season, Chris Davis has not only been the worst player of my three sleepers, but one of the worst players in baseball. There's still a lot to like about Davis (such as the .216 ISO), but the downside (45.5% K rate, 8% higher than the #2 guy, Mark Reynolds) seemingly outweighs the potential.
Currently, Chris Davis supports a .194/.248/.410 slash line, thanks to 45.5% K rate, 5.9% walk rate (bottom 20 among all major league hitters) and 1.4 speed score. The power is legitimate (13 HR in 222 AB, .216 ISO), but Davis' Three-True-Outcome tendencies (Davis K's, HR's or BB's in 58% of his PA's, which is second this season to only Carlos Pena, who follows the TTO formula 60.3% of the time) are quite disconcerting because they skew heavily towards the bad third of the Three True Outcomes -- the strikeouts. Despite posting a .194 BA, Davis's BABIP is an only slightly unlucky .280, thanks to the enormous amount of whiffing he does (Davis is the fastest major league player to ever reach 100 Ks in a season). Any fantasy baseball manager expecting any semblance of a rebound from Davis in the BA department is going to be severely disappointed until that K rate halves.
Furthermore, even if he were to cut down on the strikeouts, Davis' poor pitch recognition (5.9% BB rate, 36.3% O-Swing [24.8% MLB average], 53.6 Swing% [44.9 MLB average] and 47.6% contact [62.4% MLB average]) makes him extremely prone to extended hitting slumps.
All of these markers indicate the following:
1) When Chris Davis makes contact, he drives the ball (his home runs average 413.2 feet in distance, top 5 in baseball)
2) Chris Davis does not make much contact with baseballs and also does not take pitches, which makes him a BA/OBP liability
3) Even if Chris Davis were to hit for a higher average and cut down on the strike outs, his poor pitch recognition and giant hole in his swing make him an extremely streaky, inconsistent hitter that is going to give Rangers fans and fantasy managers peptic ulcers
3) As indicated by his .281 wOBA, a slugger with no ability to get on base has marginal value at best (click here to read about the importance of walking and getting on base over slugging), and thus Chris Davis may lose playing time to minor league 1B slugger Justin Smoak
My love of Chris Davis has waned to the point of disappointment this season and I've dropped him in all of my leagues. I recommend you either do the same if you cannot find a trade partner. This isn't the same situation as Dan Uggla, the Adam Dunn of the middle infield, whose 2B positional eligibility and bad luck make him an undervalued asset. Chris Davis is just a powerful man who is not as good at hitting as perhaps I once pegged him.
Joey Votto: 589 AB, .297 AVG, 69 R, 84 RBI, 24 HR, 7 SB
Nelson Cruz: 115 AB, .330 AVG, 19 R, 26 RBI, 7 HR, 3 SB (on pace for a 35 HR, 15 SB, 95 R, 130 RBI season)
Chris Davis: 295 AB, .285 AVG, 51 R, 55 RBI, 17 HR, 1 SB (on pace for a 35 HR, 100 R, 110 RBI season)
Given Dusty Baker's hatred/abuse of young players, Nelson Cruz's AAAA career and Bill James' overwhelming approval of Chris Davis (he called him one of the few guys who would legitimately reach 40 HR this season), Davis seemed like the safest choice of the bunch -- and his 70 ADP on MockDraftCentral, which was the lowest of these three guys, reflected and reaffirmed this belief.
However, now almost 3 months through the season, Chris Davis has not only been the worst player of my three sleepers, but one of the worst players in baseball. There's still a lot to like about Davis (such as the .216 ISO), but the downside (45.5% K rate, 8% higher than the #2 guy, Mark Reynolds) seemingly outweighs the potential.
Currently, Chris Davis supports a .194/.248/.410 slash line, thanks to 45.5% K rate, 5.9% walk rate (bottom 20 among all major league hitters) and 1.4 speed score. The power is legitimate (13 HR in 222 AB, .216 ISO), but Davis' Three-True-Outcome tendencies (Davis K's, HR's or BB's in 58% of his PA's, which is second this season to only Carlos Pena, who follows the TTO formula 60.3% of the time) are quite disconcerting because they skew heavily towards the bad third of the Three True Outcomes -- the strikeouts. Despite posting a .194 BA, Davis's BABIP is an only slightly unlucky .280, thanks to the enormous amount of whiffing he does (Davis is the fastest major league player to ever reach 100 Ks in a season). Any fantasy baseball manager expecting any semblance of a rebound from Davis in the BA department is going to be severely disappointed until that K rate halves.
Furthermore, even if he were to cut down on the strikeouts, Davis' poor pitch recognition (5.9% BB rate, 36.3% O-Swing [24.8% MLB average], 53.6 Swing% [44.9 MLB average] and 47.6% contact [62.4% MLB average]) makes him extremely prone to extended hitting slumps.
All of these markers indicate the following:
1) When Chris Davis makes contact, he drives the ball (his home runs average 413.2 feet in distance, top 5 in baseball)
2) Chris Davis does not make much contact with baseballs and also does not take pitches, which makes him a BA/OBP liability
3) Even if Chris Davis were to hit for a higher average and cut down on the strike outs, his poor pitch recognition and giant hole in his swing make him an extremely streaky, inconsistent hitter that is going to give Rangers fans and fantasy managers peptic ulcers
3) As indicated by his .281 wOBA, a slugger with no ability to get on base has marginal value at best (click here to read about the importance of walking and getting on base over slugging), and thus Chris Davis may lose playing time to minor league 1B slugger Justin Smoak
My love of Chris Davis has waned to the point of disappointment this season and I've dropped him in all of my leagues. I recommend you either do the same if you cannot find a trade partner. This isn't the same situation as Dan Uggla, the Adam Dunn of the middle infield, whose 2B positional eligibility and bad luck make him an undervalued asset. Chris Davis is just a powerful man who is not as good at hitting as perhaps I once pegged him.
Strikeout Problems
There have been many players past and present who have had a difficult time avoiding the strikeout. Bobby Bonds was the first great strikeout artists having seasons of 187 and 189 K's. Sammy Sosa had eclipsed 170 3 times in his career. The record has been broken several times in the past 5 years by Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard who has topped out at 199 twice(so close). Last year Justin Upton found that it is difficult to make contact with major league pitching at the age of 20. In a single month, he managed to strike out 40 times in only 88 at-bats. Personally, i thought it would be very hard to eclipse that K rate over that many at-bats. However, every year brings new players who get into a massive funk and accumulate strikeouts in bunches.
First, Braves rookie Jordan Schafer came close by fanning 37 times in his first 87 at-bats. However, he has slightly improved his contact rate. However, the king of the strikeout this year has been Chris David. After striking out 88 times in 295 at-bats in his partial season last year, he has already strikeout 71 times the first 158 at-bats for a sweat 44% K rate. I'm pretty sure that would be a record. Assuming that he reaches 600 at-bats which is a fair estimation, he would accumulate approximately 250 strikeouts. WOW! Zips projections are being very modest projecting Davis to finish with 195 K's on the season. My experience has shown that players tendto get worse instead of better when it comes to making contact and I'll predict that David does break the record of 199 assuming he reaches 550 at-bats. Adding his low walk rate of 6% makes Davis a scary player to have, not in a good way.
First, Braves rookie Jordan Schafer came close by fanning 37 times in his first 87 at-bats. However, he has slightly improved his contact rate. However, the king of the strikeout this year has been Chris David. After striking out 88 times in 295 at-bats in his partial season last year, he has already strikeout 71 times the first 158 at-bats for a sweat 44% K rate. I'm pretty sure that would be a record. Assuming that he reaches 600 at-bats which is a fair estimation, he would accumulate approximately 250 strikeouts. WOW! Zips projections are being very modest projecting Davis to finish with 195 K's on the season. My experience has shown that players tendto get worse instead of better when it comes to making contact and I'll predict that David does break the record of 199 assuming he reaches 550 at-bats. Adding his low walk rate of 6% makes Davis a scary player to have, not in a good way.
