This is the team of undervalued assets. Guys who are good or will get good soon and when they do and get recognized for being good, DME will subsequently hate them. Guys like Ubaldo Jimenez and CarGo before 2010. Or WayRod two years ago.
C-Geovany Soto
1B-Adam LaRoche
2B-Kelly Johnson
SS-Starlin Castro
3B-Adrian Beltre
OF-Jay Bruce
OF-Franklin Gutierrez
OF-J.D. Drew
DH-Russell Branyan
SP1-Dan Haren
SP2-Ricky Nolasco
SP3-Max Scherzer
SP4-Kris Medlen
SP5-Scott Baker
CL-Kevin Jepsen
Showing posts with label DME's Man Crush. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DME's Man Crush. Show all posts
Do Not Give Up On Dan Haren
Anyone who knows me or has read this blog knows how much I love Dan Haren. I've owned him each of the past four seasons and defended the man's second half struggles on ESPN's Fantasy Focus podcast to the bitter end. There are few active players who blend Maddux's control with John Smoltz's strikeout numbers and if it weren't for the fact that Chase Field is a tiny park that the Diamondback's hitters can't score runs in, Haren wouldn't survive the second round of fantasy draft annually. Nonetheless, a question has been raised by many which I feel a burning desire to scream the answer (which is no) to: should fantasy owners be concerned about Dan Haren?
True, Dan Haren posted a less-than-Dan-Haren-like 4.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP after the All-Star break (Haren, Adam LaRoche and Mark Teixeira have collectively patented the "one-half struggler" complex) and true, Haren has posted a very un-Haren-like 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through his first 59.2 IP this season. Nonetheless, one should not be concerned. Haren's ERA and WHIP are merely cosmetic reflections of incredibly poor luck and sabermetrics, unlike beauty, is not only skin deep.
A look at Dan Haren's advanced statistics reveals that Haren has continued a trend of increasing his K/9 that extends back to his rookie season; it currently sits at a career high 9.39 mark. True, Haren's walk rate per nine is up over 50% this year, but it still sits at a very quality 2.26, which is top 35 amongst all major league pitchers who have logged 30+ innings and well below the major league average of 3.56. Haren's combination of stuff and control of said stuff gives him a strong K/BB rate of 4.13, which is more than double that of the league average, top 10 in baseball and top 5 in the NL. Even with the unlucky 13.1% HR/FB rate and 1.21 HR/9 rate, Haren has a superior 3.56 FIP.
Dan Haren's peripherals scream bad luck and impending progression. His 2010 66.9% LOB% is well below his career mark of 73.1%, his .357 BABIP is 18.2% higher than his .302 career mark, and the Diamondbacks team defense, as rated by UZR/150, is the third best in the major leagues at the moment (ahead of the super defensive Tampa Bay [Devil] Rays).
This is not the profile of a pitcher you give up on. Especially when you consider that Dan Haren' s 47.7% groundball rate is at a career high after dipping to a post-rookie season career low 42.9% mark last season. Haren's xFIP is a spectacular 3.22 -- the seventh lowest mark in the major leagues. Considering that the Diamondbacks infielders (both starters and non-starters) collectively have a +31.0 UZR/150 this season, it's hard to imagine Dan Haren's struggles continue much longer.
ZiPS projects Dan Haren to post a 3.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 12 Wins and a 8.63 K/9 to boot for the reason of the season. There is absolutely no reason, barring God's continued hatred of Dan Haren, that Haren will not at least post those numbers here out. If anyone in your league is dumb enough to be shopping him [at a discount], you buy.
True, Dan Haren posted a less-than-Dan-Haren-like 4.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP after the All-Star break (Haren, Adam LaRoche and Mark Teixeira have collectively patented the "one-half struggler" complex) and true, Haren has posted a very un-Haren-like 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through his first 59.2 IP this season. Nonetheless, one should not be concerned. Haren's ERA and WHIP are merely cosmetic reflections of incredibly poor luck and sabermetrics, unlike beauty, is not only skin deep.
A look at Dan Haren's advanced statistics reveals that Haren has continued a trend of increasing his K/9 that extends back to his rookie season; it currently sits at a career high 9.39 mark. True, Haren's walk rate per nine is up over 50% this year, but it still sits at a very quality 2.26, which is top 35 amongst all major league pitchers who have logged 30+ innings and well below the major league average of 3.56. Haren's combination of stuff and control of said stuff gives him a strong K/BB rate of 4.13, which is more than double that of the league average, top 10 in baseball and top 5 in the NL. Even with the unlucky 13.1% HR/FB rate and 1.21 HR/9 rate, Haren has a superior 3.56 FIP.
Dan Haren's peripherals scream bad luck and impending progression. His 2010 66.9% LOB% is well below his career mark of 73.1%, his .357 BABIP is 18.2% higher than his .302 career mark, and the Diamondbacks team defense, as rated by UZR/150, is the third best in the major leagues at the moment (ahead of the super defensive Tampa Bay [Devil] Rays).
This is not the profile of a pitcher you give up on. Especially when you consider that Dan Haren' s 47.7% groundball rate is at a career high after dipping to a post-rookie season career low 42.9% mark last season. Haren's xFIP is a spectacular 3.22 -- the seventh lowest mark in the major leagues. Considering that the Diamondbacks infielders (both starters and non-starters) collectively have a +31.0 UZR/150 this season, it's hard to imagine Dan Haren's struggles continue much longer.
ZiPS projects Dan Haren to post a 3.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 12 Wins and a 8.63 K/9 to boot for the reason of the season. There is absolutely no reason, barring God's continued hatred of Dan Haren, that Haren will not at least post those numbers here out. If anyone in your league is dumb enough to be shopping him [at a discount], you buy.
