Showing posts with label Kansas City Royals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kansas City Royals. Show all posts
Danny Duffy: The AL's Covert Ace
My latest article for The Hardball Times takes a look at Danny Duffy's past five starts, compares them to his first six starts, and postulates whether it's Duff Time.
You Down With OBP? Unleash The Kila Whale
Mired in the Kansas City mess that is Dayton Moore's "process" are several plus-quality minor leaguers. This should not be surprising because, even if you are terrible at drafting, if you have a perennial top 5 pick, it is exceedingly difficult to continuously mess up the draft (though Moore seemingly attempted to do just that this year, by drafting Christian Colon, a high-contact SS with an allergy to walks and mediocre power (and career) upside (from what I hear, think Alexi Ramirez with less power, more walks), 4th overall). A few weeks ago, I took a look at "former" uberprospect Alex Gordon, age 26, who has kept on mashing to no avail since. There is also, of course, 2008's top pick, Eric Hosmer, age 21, whose strong walking skills (13% BB% this season), intriguing power upside (.198 ISO this season) and poor defense profile him as the stereotypical 1B/DH-type.
Then there's this other guy, Kila Ka'aihue, a 26 year old 1B/DH by trade, who has posted walk rates north of 12% in every minor league stop with a .207 career minor league ISO to boot. I am utterly convinced Dayton Moore hates him. Though the Royals, as a team, have a barely above average .338 OBP this year and are not dead last with their .403 SLG, they have been the bottom feeders of major league baseball in OBP/SLG/wOBA since at least 2004. Still, they refused to give Kila "I walk a lot" Ka'aihue his fair chance. Rather, the Royals tried to solve their wOBA woes by bringing in Mike "I don't know how to walk" Jacobs (for Leo Nunez, who has been a serviceable closer for the Marlins), who hit a handful of homers (19), but posted sub-.300 OBPs along the way for the second consecutive year. Meanwhile, Kila, mired in a "down year," posted a "pathetic" .252/.392/.433 line with 17 HR in 555 PA for the Royals' AAA-affiliate, getting a 25 PA cup of coffee to placate stats nerds everywhere.
Kila is currently back to his power hitting ways, mashing 16 HR in half as many PA as last season while posting a .310/.477/.597 line for the Omaha Royals. Minor League Splits says such a performance is worth an MLB-equivalent line of .249/.384/.433 (.817 OPS) with 10 HR in 245 AB. Still, Kila Monster, the true pride of Hawaii, gets no love and is wasting away his prime years of youth proving that he has nothing to prove in the minors.
There's a clear log jam at 1B/DH in Kansas City, with grandpa/Red Giant Jose Guillen and youngster Billy Butler, who is just starting to come into his own as a hitter, sticking around right now and Eric Hosmer on his way. Moore has never really given Kila and chance and it's quite likely that he'll need a change of scenery in order to stick in the majors. Kila could provide a quality trade chip for the Royals, as his MLB-equivalent .814 OPS would rank top 10 amongst DHs (meaning there's 20+ teams who could use his production, not to mention cost-controlled talent) and middle of the pack amongst MLB 1B's. Personally, I would love to see the Cubs acquire the second incarnation of the greek god of walks (and maybe Alex Gordon too; in exchange, the Royals can have Josh Vitters and Tyler Colvin).
In terms of immediate fantasy impact, Kila is more of a keepers league player at the moment. The 1B/DH log jam in KC makes Kila's short term P.T. possibilities near nil. However, Kila is a minor leaguer worth monitoring. He may be an injury away from the majors, though Alex Gordon will be likely be first in line for promotion. Though it's unlikely that Kila will move at the all-star break -- his lack of MLB experience makes him more off-season trade fodder (for impact talent loading, as Moore has the Cubs' sense of team building) -- stranger things have happened.
Whenever and however it happens, however, Kila needs the chance to prove to casual fans what us stats nerd already know: Kila has a lot of talent.
Then there's this other guy, Kila Ka'aihue, a 26 year old 1B/DH by trade, who has posted walk rates north of 12% in every minor league stop with a .207 career minor league ISO to boot. I am utterly convinced Dayton Moore hates him. Though the Royals, as a team, have a barely above average .338 OBP this year and are not dead last with their .403 SLG, they have been the bottom feeders of major league baseball in OBP/SLG/wOBA since at least 2004. Still, they refused to give Kila "I walk a lot" Ka'aihue his fair chance. Rather, the Royals tried to solve their wOBA woes by bringing in Mike "I don't know how to walk" Jacobs (for Leo Nunez, who has been a serviceable closer for the Marlins), who hit a handful of homers (19), but posted sub-.300 OBPs along the way for the second consecutive year. Meanwhile, Kila, mired in a "down year," posted a "pathetic" .252/.392/.433 line with 17 HR in 555 PA for the Royals' AAA-affiliate, getting a 25 PA cup of coffee to placate stats nerds everywhere.
Kila is currently back to his power hitting ways, mashing 16 HR in half as many PA as last season while posting a .310/.477/.597 line for the Omaha Royals. Minor League Splits says such a performance is worth an MLB-equivalent line of .249/.384/.433 (.817 OPS) with 10 HR in 245 AB. Still, Kila Monster, the true pride of Hawaii, gets no love and is wasting away his prime years of youth proving that he has nothing to prove in the minors.
There's a clear log jam at 1B/DH in Kansas City, with grandpa/Red Giant Jose Guillen and youngster Billy Butler, who is just starting to come into his own as a hitter, sticking around right now and Eric Hosmer on his way. Moore has never really given Kila and chance and it's quite likely that he'll need a change of scenery in order to stick in the majors. Kila could provide a quality trade chip for the Royals, as his MLB-equivalent .814 OPS would rank top 10 amongst DHs (meaning there's 20+ teams who could use his production, not to mention cost-controlled talent) and middle of the pack amongst MLB 1B's. Personally, I would love to see the Cubs acquire the second incarnation of the greek god of walks (and maybe Alex Gordon too; in exchange, the Royals can have Josh Vitters and Tyler Colvin).
In terms of immediate fantasy impact, Kila is more of a keepers league player at the moment. The 1B/DH log jam in KC makes Kila's short term P.T. possibilities near nil. However, Kila is a minor leaguer worth monitoring. He may be an injury away from the majors, though Alex Gordon will be likely be first in line for promotion. Though it's unlikely that Kila will move at the all-star break -- his lack of MLB experience makes him more off-season trade fodder (for impact talent loading, as Moore has the Cubs' sense of team building) -- stranger things have happened.
Whenever and however it happens, however, Kila needs the chance to prove to casual fans what us stats nerd already know: Kila has a lot of talent.
Can Kansas City Really Make The Playoffs?
Right now, the Kansas City Royals are in first place. Just let that thought sink into your head. Kansas City, the team that has been the laughing stock of Major League Baseball for so long is in first place. Last year, the perennial losers, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (after dropping the "Devil" from their name) made it all the way to the World Series. Right now, the Royals are looking to do the same.
Currently, they have THE best pitcher in baseball in Zack Greinke and are holding on to a two game lead in the AL Central. But how many times have we as baseball fans seen this before. Teams all the time get off to hot starts and end up sizzling come June. So I beg the question: are the Kansas City Royals for real?
Well the cliche we hear all the time is that if a team is to be successful, it's all about pitching and defense. Now frankly, you can win it all with offense but pitching and defense can take you far. Right now, the Royals have the second best FIP in all of baseball, only to the Braves. This is actually falling in line with their ERA, seeing as the team only has a E-F of -0.06. Not only do the Royals have Greinke but also Gil Meche who currently has the 5th best FIP. Although the team also has Sidney Ponson (5.06 FIP, 7.16 ERA) and Kyle Davies (5.62 FIP, 5.88 ERA) and both have average to below average K/9 and K/BB. But as a whole team, the Royals are doing very well.
Their defense is also doing very well rating 10th in UZR/150. Coco Crisp is the second best defender in all of baseball only to Joe Crede (fucker couldn't play THIS good in Chicago- mainly last year, but I digress...) and Mark Teahan is currently playing above average defensively. But when Billy Butler is you're team's 3rd best defender and you only have 4 defenders in the top 100 in UZR/150, you're on shaky grounds. To add to that, David DeJesus is playing below average defense and that middle infield of Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo is just atrocious right now. But I'll give them their props of doing very well as a team.
But pitching and defense means nothing if you can't score SOME runs. This has actually been the huge criticism of the team now and continues to be a concern going forward. But right now, the Royals are 13th in Runs Scored, 11th in BB, 14th in wOBA, and 13th in OPS. This is almost literally- average. Out of 30 teams they're barely above 15th in all these categories. But yet despite all of this, the team is 7th overall by record in terms of runs scored according to Baseball Prospectus. However, if they can maintain this, I really don't see this as TOO MUCH of a problem. Because if you're really good at preventing runs, then scoring runs isn't AS big of a deal as it should be (see 2008 Angels).
But despite the pretty good success of the Royals, BP still projects the Detroit Tigers to win the division giving them about a 41.5% chance versus the Royals at a measly 22%. See this I don't understand. I can see it plausible the Royals start is a fluke, but to say the Tigers of all teams will beat them out? Even if Justin Verlander reverts back to his old self (which according to DME and I agree he can at least come close), and Armando Galarraga doesn't suck all year, I still think Greinke and Meche are better. I also have a hard time believing Edwin Jackson will continue to be THIS good (even remotely good) and Rick Porcello hasn't shown anything yet. The White Sox and Royals currently have a better FIP than the Tigers and Kansas City and the Twins have better UZR/150. The Royals have a better team wOBA than Detroit. better BB%, better OPS, and have only scored 10 less runs than Detroit (yet are still 2 games ahead). Now I think in the end the Tigers will have a better offense and I will admit that although the Royals are currently ahead of the Tigers in many categories, the lead isn't THAT big. But enough to warrant a a 20% better chance to make the playoffs boggles my mind.
Now I'm sure DME can better explain to me BPs reasoning because I'm sure it is valid and I'm sure he'll explain why Kansas City probably will fizzle out before June. But the fact that the Royals have a damn fine pitching corps, an above average defense, and decent hitting along with playing in one of the worst divisions in baseball, I think they do have a legit shot. Now seeing this team lose so badly for the past 4 years or so and not seeing them making any drastic changes makes me personally question how far this team can go and seeing as these stats I looked up are only a month old, I still think they can be contenders in the end. Again, a terrible division doesn't hurt either.
So are the Kansas City Royals for real? Probably not. But can they compete for most if not all of the year? I think so.
Currently, they have THE best pitcher in baseball in Zack Greinke and are holding on to a two game lead in the AL Central. But how many times have we as baseball fans seen this before. Teams all the time get off to hot starts and end up sizzling come June. So I beg the question: are the Kansas City Royals for real?
Well the cliche we hear all the time is that if a team is to be successful, it's all about pitching and defense. Now frankly, you can win it all with offense but pitching and defense can take you far. Right now, the Royals have the second best FIP in all of baseball, only to the Braves. This is actually falling in line with their ERA, seeing as the team only has a E-F of -0.06. Not only do the Royals have Greinke but also Gil Meche who currently has the 5th best FIP. Although the team also has Sidney Ponson (5.06 FIP, 7.16 ERA) and Kyle Davies (5.62 FIP, 5.88 ERA) and both have average to below average K/9 and K/BB. But as a whole team, the Royals are doing very well.
Their defense is also doing very well rating 10th in UZR/150. Coco Crisp is the second best defender in all of baseball only to Joe Crede (fucker couldn't play THIS good in Chicago- mainly last year, but I digress...) and Mark Teahan is currently playing above average defensively. But when Billy Butler is you're team's 3rd best defender and you only have 4 defenders in the top 100 in UZR/150, you're on shaky grounds. To add to that, David DeJesus is playing below average defense and that middle infield of Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo is just atrocious right now. But I'll give them their props of doing very well as a team.
But pitching and defense means nothing if you can't score SOME runs. This has actually been the huge criticism of the team now and continues to be a concern going forward. But right now, the Royals are 13th in Runs Scored, 11th in BB, 14th in wOBA, and 13th in OPS. This is almost literally- average. Out of 30 teams they're barely above 15th in all these categories. But yet despite all of this, the team is 7th overall by record in terms of runs scored according to Baseball Prospectus. However, if they can maintain this, I really don't see this as TOO MUCH of a problem. Because if you're really good at preventing runs, then scoring runs isn't AS big of a deal as it should be (see 2008 Angels).
But despite the pretty good success of the Royals, BP still projects the Detroit Tigers to win the division giving them about a 41.5% chance versus the Royals at a measly 22%. See this I don't understand. I can see it plausible the Royals start is a fluke, but to say the Tigers of all teams will beat them out? Even if Justin Verlander reverts back to his old self (which according to DME and I agree he can at least come close), and Armando Galarraga doesn't suck all year, I still think Greinke and Meche are better. I also have a hard time believing Edwin Jackson will continue to be THIS good (even remotely good) and Rick Porcello hasn't shown anything yet. The White Sox and Royals currently have a better FIP than the Tigers and Kansas City and the Twins have better UZR/150. The Royals have a better team wOBA than Detroit. better BB%, better OPS, and have only scored 10 less runs than Detroit (yet are still 2 games ahead). Now I think in the end the Tigers will have a better offense and I will admit that although the Royals are currently ahead of the Tigers in many categories, the lead isn't THAT big. But enough to warrant a a 20% better chance to make the playoffs boggles my mind.
Now I'm sure DME can better explain to me BPs reasoning because I'm sure it is valid and I'm sure he'll explain why Kansas City probably will fizzle out before June. But the fact that the Royals have a damn fine pitching corps, an above average defense, and decent hitting along with playing in one of the worst divisions in baseball, I think they do have a legit shot. Now seeing this team lose so badly for the past 4 years or so and not seeing them making any drastic changes makes me personally question how far this team can go and seeing as these stats I looked up are only a month old, I still think they can be contenders in the end. Again, a terrible division doesn't hurt either.
So are the Kansas City Royals for real? Probably not. But can they compete for most if not all of the year? I think so.
