Drew Brees Does Not Deserve The MVP: Why The New Orleans QB Is Not Having As Good Of A Season As You Might Think And Why Dan Marino Is Still The Best

And How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb

In Week 16 of the 2011 season, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees set the record for most passing yards in a single season- surpassing Dan Marino's record that he set in 1984. Through 15 games Brees has thrown for 5,087 yards. Through 16 games in 1984, Marino threw for 5,084.

But let's break this down further.

First, it's a lot easier to throw in today's football than it was 30 years ago. The NFL has changed drastically it's really to make it easier for wide receivers to get separation and it makes it harder for defensive backs (or any defensive player) to touch and cover their intended receiver. What Dan Marino did in 1984 is like what Babe Ruth did in 1927. Ruth hit 60 home runs when the rest of the league was hitting 12. Marino putting up the numbers he did at the time he did it in was that much more incredible.

Second, Drew Brees throws it a lot. I mean A LOT. Drew Brees currently leads the NFL in pass attempts with 622. He averages 1.2 more pass attempts per game than second place (Matthew Stafford- and the Lions have spent a lot of games down big by halftime/the 3rd quarter) and 3.067 more attempts per game than third place (Tom Brady). Brees' 2011 season currently ranks him 10th all time among passing attempts.

Having that many attempts hurts Brees tremendously. Through advanced statistics in all sports, we know now that it is not the absolute numbers you put up, but how you get to your total numbers that's most important. Leading the league in strike outs is not very impressive if you also happen to lead the league in innings pitched as well. What's more important is strikeouts per 9 innings as well as strike out to walk ratio. Keep this analogy in mind as we'll get to it later.

Drew Brees was able to set the single season passing record just because he threw it so damn much. Like K/9, the most important statistic for quarterbacks is not total passing yards but rather yards per attempt. Currently, Drew Brees ranks only SIXTH in YPA behind Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer. Ranking outside the top five in a single season for YPA is not very impressive in the least. This statistic alone should take Brees out of MVP discussions.

However, we're going to go further. Like K/BB ratio for pitchers, quarterbacks have TD/INT ratio. Pitchers can get away with not striking a lot of guys out if they also do not walk very many guys (see: most Minnesota Twins pitchers since Johan Santana left). Likewise, it's possible to get away with walking very many guys if you have the ability to strike guys out with batters on base. In baseball, one of the worst things a pitcher can do is walk a batter. We know know that's it's all about on base percentage (and not batting average) for hitters. Likewise for football, one of the worst things a quarterback can do is turn the ball over. Turn overs have been proven to be one of the leading factors to determine which teams wins the ball game. Also, a QB can make up for his turnovers if he's able to score a lot of touchdowns.

Wow! This analogy is perfect *pats himself on the back*

Through 15 games, Drew Brees currently has 13 interceptions and 41 touchdowns. This is good for a 3.15 TD/INT ratio. Anything above 2:1 is impressive so Brees has a fantastic TD/INT ratio. However, Brees currently ranks 4th in this category in 2011 behind Aaron Rodgers (7.5), Tom Brady (3.27), Tony Romo (3.22), and Alex Smith (3.20).

But wait Adam, Brees currently on pace to set the single season mark for most completions? Shouldn't that count for something?

Yes, random naysayer I just made up, yes it does. That completion percentage is another amazing accomplishment. Right now Brees has a completion percentage of 71.2%. Who's in second place? Bress and his 2009 season when he completed 70.6% of his passes (as well as Ken Anderson in 1982 when he also completed 70.6% of his passes).

However, I would be more impressed with that completion percentage if 1) It wasn't painfully obvious the percentage was a result of Sean Payton's system and 2) if New Orleans did not have three out of the top 15 receivers in terms of yards after the catch. Two of which are running backs and the third one being a tight end.

New Orleans running back Darren Sproles currently leads the league in YAC with 649, running back Pierre Thomas is 12th with 443 and tight end Jimmy Graham is 15th with 407.

What this tells me is that Drew Brees gets a lot of completions coming from dink and dumps and easy passes over the middle. While I would rather have my quarterback completing passes than not completing passes, if I'm going to say a quarterback absolutely deserves to win the MVP, he needs to not derive so much of his value from being Chad Pennington-esque.

What's even more telling about Drew Brees and his MVP chances if that he ranks 3rd in terms of DVOA (a metric that measures how valuable a player is per play), 3rd in WPA/game, and 2nd in EPA/game (WPA and EPA are metrics that takes into account not only total yards and such but time in the game, down, and distance. Think about it- a 3 yard gain is more impressive on 4th and 2 late in the 4th quarter than on 1st and 10 early in the first. WPA and EPA takes things like that into consideration).

Despite all my Drew Brees bashing that I have just done, do not get it twisted and think that I hate Drew Brees. I do not. Brees' 2011 season has been stellar and amazing and I would love for Brees and his system to be on the team that I root for. Brees absolutely deserved his Pro Bowl berth and he should get all the kudos in the world for having a great season in 2011. What I am saying is that he does not deserve to be the MVP.

That honor belongs to (ugh, this pains me to say as a Bears fan): Aaron Rodgers. First of all, there has been only two seasons where a quarterback has had a TD/INT ratio of over 6:1- Tom Brady in 2010 (9:1) and Tom Brady in 2007 (6.25:1). As mentioned earlier, Aaron Rodgers has a TD/INT ratio of 7.5:1. ESPN and the shitty hype machine that it is should be making a much bigger deal of Aaron Rodger's TD/INT ratio than of Drew Brees' single season passing record.

Rodgers currently leads the NFL in: TD/INT ratio, passing touchdowns, passer rating, QBR, Yards Per Attempt, DVOA, and EPA. That also doesn't take into account his 257 rushing yards (4.3 YPC) and 3 rushing touchdowns. Rodgers is also 2nd in DYAR (total passing value) and WPA. To add to that, Rodgers has a sub par offensive line. According to Football Outsides, the Green Bay Packers have the 23rd ranked passing O-line (In contrast, the New Orleans Saints have the 3rd best). PLUS, Rodgers passes the eye test with flying colors. Every time I see Rodgers play it looks like every ball he throws should be completed. Every pass looks right on the money and I am baffled to as how Rodgers doesn't have a 100% completion percentage.

There should be no co-MVP in 2011 and Drew Brees should not get any first place votes for MVP. This award is Aaron Rodgers' award and HE should get every single first place vote. I don't care that the Packers lost a game. If you're gonna be that petty then I'll point out Drew Brees and the Saints lost to the St. Louis Rams. THE 2-13 RAMS! (as well as two others- including Aaron Rodger's Packers). You are a very good and talented QB Drew Brees but I'm sorry, 2011 is NOT your year.

Hamilton or Cabrera for MVP?

Inspired by an ongoing debates in the comments section over at THT Live, I propose to you the following considerations:

1. Josh Hamilton’s AVG/SLG stats (.359/.411/.633) are slightly better than Miguel Cabrera’s (.328/.420/.622), but Miggy has a slight edge in OBP (which is more valuable than slugging).
2. Even with park factors considered, Miguel Cabrera’s wOBA is .427. Hamilton’s is .447
   
3. In terms of total batting production, Hamilton’s BRAR is +55.5, having missed almost a month of play. Cabrera’s is +55.3 with an additional 17 games played.
   
4. Miguel Cabrera’s 1B fielding is was indexed at -6.1 UZR/150 (take 1 year UZR with a serious grain of salt), while Hamilton’s OF fielding per 150 was +10.8. Hamilton plays the relatively more premium fielding position.
   
5. Hamilton’s cumulative WPA on the season was +6.25, whereas Cabrera’s was a higher +7.42. If we keep everything constant and pro-rate Hamilton’s playing time to match Cabrera’s, Hamilton’s extrapolated WPA becomes 7.09. Thus, it’s closer than it seems, but Miggy does out-edge Hamilton here.
   
6. In terms of pure raw peripherals, Miggy edges Hamilton in ISO (.294 vs .274) and owns him in BB% (13.7% vs 7.5%).
   
7. Hamilton was the more prodigious clipper (22.0% LD% vs 18.9% LD%) and Hamilton grounded into less double plays per AB (2.1%) than Miggy (3.1%)

So yes, the overall end of season numbers are pretty darn close, but when you consider that Hamilton’s team made it to the playoffs (a major factor in G/9 analysis) and that Hamilton was just as valuable over 17 less games, you honestly have to give the edge to Hamilton. Plus Hamilton didn’t get to drink any champagne (though he did never dress up in the raincoat with duck tape over his mouth as he promised the media...). Accordingly, this is why I feel that he most deserves the award.

Sexy Rexy's End Of Year Winners

AL

MVP: Josh Hamilton (TEX)

Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SEA)

ROY: Neftali Feliz (TEX)

SOY: David Price (TB)

Rolaids Reliever: Joakim Soria (KAN)

NL

MVP: Joey Votto (CIN)

Cy Young: Roy Halladay (PHI)

ROY: Buster Posey (SF)

SOY: Tommy Hanson (ATL)

Rolaids Reliever: Carlos Marmol (CHC)

*SOY = Sophomore Of The Year

Quick Chase Utley Rant

Despite the fact that the BBWA got it right with Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Joe Mauer and technically Albert Pujols, they are still a bunch of morons. Somehow, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, Andre Ethier and Pablo Sandoval all ended up with more MVP votes than Chase Utley. At 7.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Chase Utley was the second most valuable hitter in the NL (behind Pujols, at 8.4 WAR) and the seventh most valuable player overall. A strong balance between fantastic defense at 2B and quality hitting at the plate makes Chase Utley one of the most valuable assets in baseball (based on his production and salary, Fangraphs ranked Utley as a top ten asset earlier this year). Utley does many things very well. He can hit (28+ HRs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, .390 career wOBA), field (career +15.5 UZR/150 at 2B), and run the bases (23 SB last season, 0 CS). He tied Reggie Jackson's World Series homerun record this year. And, as evidenced below, he can even fly.

But Chase Utley gets no love.

At first glance, Pujols appears to deserve the MVP. His monstrous bat was second to none (+16 Runs Above Replacement (RAR) better than the second best hitter last year, Joe Mauer, the AL MVP) and his defense is solid (it has averaged just under +5 RAR per season since 2002). However, Albert Pujols plays first base. Yes, WAR accomodates this with a -12.4 Positional Adjustment to Pujols' cumulative RAR, but there is something more to be said when the WARs are close and the positions played by two players require significantly different levels of skill.

"But DME," you say, "Pujols has a +8.4 WAR and Utley has a +7.6 WAR. That's a chunky +8 RAR difference." True, in theory, but WAR does not encapsulate every aspect of a player's value (and no, I'm not talking about Grindiness Per Nine Inning (G/9)). WAR does not encapsulate baserunning skills. Because WAR is derivative of wOBA, which already accounts for SB%, the additional "Baserunning RAR" (BRAR) is calculated by (EQBRR-EQSBR). According to Baseball Prospectus, Chase Utley was the second best baserunner in the majors last season (behind Michael Bourne) and his BRAR was +5.32. Albert Pujols was not even a top 500 baserunner and his BRAR was -0.62.

This makes the difference between Utley and Pujols' end of season cumulative RAR's within two runs of each other. Such a difference is pretty marginal. Factor in Pujols' +13 PA's and the fact that Chase Utley's team made it to the World Series (where Utley raked), and I would have to tip my hat in favor of Chase Utley, who plays in a much tougher division, for the NL MVP award. By no means is it a travesty that Pujols got the honor. It is a travesty, however, that Utley did not even finish top 5 in NL MVP voting.

This only goes to show that even when the BBWA gets it right, they still manage to get it wrong.
________

Editor's Note: I am aware that BBWA votes are due prior to the playoffs. I am just using his performance as addition rationale as to why I would prefer him over Pujols for the NL MVP. If Utley didn't hit .193/.290/.325 (.217 BABIP) in Sept./Oct., it is very possible that Utley would have had a more valuable 2009 than Pujols.

Joe Mauer Wins MVP Unanimously, Minus 1 Moron

Mauer led the American League in average, on-base, and slugging - the true triple crown while playing catcher. Some moron voted for Miguel Cabrera, cause boozing and beating your wife before the most important game of the season really spikes your grindiness per nine (g/9)

Kerry Collins proves not to be MVP worthy

Not only did Kerry Collins not win the MVP of the National Football League, well he didn't actually get a single vote for MVP, but he also sucks in the playoffs too. After a first round by, Collins led the titans to a listless loss to the ravens. Let's just say he didnt do much to help his team win. I will be shocked, shocked i tell you, if he is the titans starting QB next year. They will simply go back to Vince Young, regardless of how suicidal he may be, and forget this little Collins experiment ever happened.

DeAngelo WIlliams for MVP! No Seriously, I Swear.

The first string running back for the Carolina Panthers, DeAngelo Williams, deserves to be the 2008/2009 NFL MVP. This is not a joke article. I mean this from the bottom of my heart. He deserves to be MVP like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have before him, not like Kerry Collins does this year. Honestly. Don't believe me, well then read on. But before I explain myself, first let me discuss which positions deserve to even be considered for MVP. These positions are quarterbacks and running backs. These are the only two positions can not only affect the game, but can determine the outcome. As much as I love a good defensive battle, it is a very rare occasion that a defensive player should be the MVP. The thing about even great, HOF worthy defensive players, is that they can be ignored. Now, you will most certianly have to take them into account, but they can be ignored. If you're offensive is playing against a great DE, then you roll out to the opposite side of the field. Or let go of the ball early. But they can, for the most part, be ignored. Plus, it's the defense as a whole that determines how well an offense does, and not one individual player. If a defenisve player, in some capacity is never be ignored on EVERY SINGLE PLAY, then they definitely deserve MVP recognition. But the same reason picthers don't get MVP recognition because they only pitch every five days, also applies in a similiar logistical fashion to defesnive players.

But QBs and RBs CAN NOT be ignored. They can not be ignored because they have the ball on every single play. Because the ball is snapped for the QB to throw to a player or handed off the the RB like every other play, these players can not be ignored. You simple have to at least account for the position on every play of every drive. Plus, these are the two positions most likely to score. Next, in order to be considered for MVP, you have to deserve to start in the pro bowl. Because if you're not good enough to start in the pro bowl, the best of the best, you don't deserve to be the MVP. And based off of a previous blog post, I have already done this. For the NFC, the starters are Tony Romo (QB- DAL) and DeAngelo Williams (RB- CAR). For the AFC, Phillip Rivers (QB- SDG) and Chris Williams (RB- TEN). After narrowing down this list to four we must first do this further to only two. You can do this by looking at DVOA. As Football Outsiders puts it, "DVOA [is]... Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average [player] in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense" This is essentially the defintion of "valuable". The same way VORP is essentially a definition of valuable to baseball, DVOA is a defintion of valuable to football. So when determining the most VALUABLE player, one should probably look to see if a player has the most value. DeAngelo Willaims is first among RBs in DVOA so he beats out Chris Johnson who is only 12th. Philip Rivers, who is 4th in DVOA, beats out Tony Romo, who is 6th.

So now it is between Philip Rivers and DeAngelo Williams. Now this is where things get tricky because how do you compare who is better, a RB or a QB? Well you can't really. But I'm saying Williams just because he is the very best at his position compared to Rivers who is just really really good. Now if Rivers was also #1 then I'd say it's a crapshoot and you could pick either one. But because it's not, DeAngelo Williams deserves to be the MVP.

Let's take a brief look at his numbers. He's first in the league with 5.5 YPC (with a significant amount of touches, 224), 4th overall in YPG with 87.8 (but he also has much less carries than the top 3), 2nd overall in TDs with 14, 2 receiving TDs, 4th overall in total yards, has ZERO fumbles, 3rd in DYAR, plays in front of only the 8th best running offensive line (granted it's good but not MVP great), and of course, is first in DVOA. It is for these reasons that not only was DeAngelo Williams a HUGE pro snub but he also deserves to be NFL MVP.