The Detroit Lions Are A Bad Match-Up For The Green Bay Packers

This pains me to say. I hate to say it. I hate to say anything good about them. They are my hated rival and I go to school with a bunch of their fans and they annoy the crap out of me. Yet I'm objective. The Green Bay Packers are a really good football team. In fact they are probably going to repeat as Superbowl champs.

OK, now that that is out of the way, let me tell you why they are not going to be undefeated.

This Thanksgiving (in four days as of the writing of this post) they face the new-and-improved Detroit Lions IN Detroit. As good as the Packers look and as good as they Packers have been, they face their toughest game of the year against the Lions.

There are two ways to defeat Aaron Rodgers. The first is match Rodgers in scoring. Aaron Rodgers is going to put up points but if you have the ball last and end up scoring on the final drive of the game, you can defeat the Packers. During the 2009-10 playoffs in the Wild Card Round, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals was able to defeat Aaron Rodgers- by putting up 51 points. In overtime. Kurt Warner had to throw five touchdown passes just to defeat Rodgers and the Packers 51-45.

The second way to defeat Aaron Rodgers is to not allow him to throw. This is no easy feat. Rodgers has a plethora of targets who are speedy route runners and Rodgers is extremely mobile and accurate and releases the ball very quickly. However, the last team to shut down Aaron Rodgers- the Detroit Lions.

In Week 14 of the 2010 season, the 6-10 Lions (2-10 before the start of the game) was able to beat the Packers by a score of 7-3. Aaron Rodgers' numbers in the game: 7 for 11, 46 passing yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. I've heard people have the audacity to say "Well, Aaron Rodgers had to leave the game so of course the Lions were able to win." B.S. First, the Lions suffocated every play Rodgers was in on. Second, Rodgers played all of the first quarter and 95% of the second- and still only allowed him to score three points.

(QUICK NOTE: It is not a good idea to stop Rodgers' receivers. He has too many guys to throw to and if you give Rodgers time, he will make plays, get first downs, and eventually score)

Unfortunately for the Green Bay Packers, the Detroit Lions can do both. Their amazing defensive line that stopped the Packers last year has been improved by the addition of rookie Nick Fairley and their overall defense is better than it was last year. This defense line is amazing at pass blocking and are athletic enough to get to Rodgers.

Plus, the Lions have something they did not have last year: Matthew Stafford. Just watching the few games Stafford has played in before 2011, you knew the talent and skills were there it was just that he couldn't stay healthy. Now that Stafford has started all 10 games this season, he has proven how good he is. Further, Green Bay ranks 31st in passing yards given up per game and 24th in YPA allowed.

Now the best way to defeat the Lions is to run on them. Detroit currently ranks 5th in passing yards allowed per game but only 28th in rushing yards allowed. Good for the Lions because the Packers do not really run the ball (Green Bay ranks 17th in rushing attempts) and they're not very good at it (they rank 24th in YPA).

It is true that Stafford and the Lions have shown vulnerability (see: their loses to Chicago and San Francisco) and they too have an extremely one dimensional offense and a one dimensional defense. However, the dimensions the Lions are good at are the reasons that they are a bad match up for the Green Bay Packers.

Jay Cutler Is An Interception Machine!

When the Bears got Jay Cutler everyone (including myself) was excited. He was a good quarterback who was supposed to turn the Bears around and lead them in the right direction. One thing that wasn't talked about in the honeymoon period after we got him was how many interceptions he throws!

Jay Cutler leads the NFL with 20 ugly interceptions this season. Jake Delhomme and Matthew Stafford are tied for second with 18. Mark Sanchez is in 4th place with 17 interceptions. Matt Ryan in 5th place only has 12, a more respectable number. Out of the top 4, two of them are rookies, so they are given a free pass for their rookie season while they get adjusted to the NFL. This is because many times rookie quarterbacks don't even start their rookie season so they can learn first from the sideline. Jake Delhomme only has 2 interceptions less than Cutler, but no one ever said he was good!

In 2008 Cutler had 18 interceptions which was second most in the NFL. Cutler was good in Denver, but he had a very good receiver in Brandon Marshall, and a better team around him, especially that offensive line. So until we get a better team around Jay Cutler, we shouldn't be surprised he is struggling. He has always thrown a lot of interceptions and now he has less time with a bad offensive line so he is trying to force the ball even more, which he has a track record of doing. So why is everyone surprised he is so bad and throwing so many interceptions?

Lions Name Stafford the Starter

As TBO and myself as publicly stated many times, the Lions QB battle should have never been a competition to begin with; Stafford should always have had this job.

I can point to a handful of examples where the rookie took the reins and ended up doing well (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning) and you can rebuttal with countless of examples of the rookies sitting on the bench and watching the proven veteran (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Steve Young) However, I am still under the contention that if you feel you have a franchise QB, why not play him? As good and serviceable as I'm sure Daunte Culpepper is, what good does his presence do? The Lions just came off of a 0-16 and have lost their past 17 in a row. They're garbage and they're not going anywhere.

So why not let the young kid develop? Peyton Manning went 1-15 his first year. Hell, is Stafford did that, he's Detroit's newest hero! There is absolutely no expectations for the Lions to win. Sure, Culpepper would probably give this team a better chance of winning NOW, but who cares about now? This team needs to look to the future and let their young guys fulfill their potential. If you were a Lions fans (first of all my condolences), what would you rather have Stafford to start developing now so in 2-3 years he'll be a star or wait 2-3 years and THEN watch Stafford develop just to get a win now and then. While that fan base might be anxious for just a freaking "W", I think rational fans would rather have the former.

The only logical argument I've heard for benching Stafford, if that that Lions O-line fucking blows, so if Stafford starts, he'll get sacked so many times that it will stunt his growth. Now that's extremely valid and one can point to David Carr for the best example. Since the Texans were so new, Carr's o-line sucks and he get sacked more than anyone. But when he left Houston, he still sucked. I think he was just a shitty pro player to begin with. Hell, even when he had Steve Smith to throw to (the good one), he didn't look all that hot.

I think it's best to get thrown out there in the fire. In most jobs I had, I had little to no training yet I was flung out there to work anyway. Sure, I fucked up in the beginning, but through experience, I became a better worker for it. I think the same should be true for Stafford. Sure, he's going to suck to begin with. He's going to get tackled and sacked and beat up. But over time, I think he'll start to get a better feeling for the game and he'll start learning to avoid sacks and order his offensive line what to do.

Plus having Calvin Johnson to throw to doesn't hurt either.

I think they key here with Stafford is all about development. Does he start making better decisions, learning his players better, does his accuracy improve? it's better to get this out of the way now so in a few years, the Lions can say they have an elite QB.