This pains me to say. I hate to say it. I hate to say anything good about them. They are my hated rival and I go to school with a bunch of their fans and they annoy the crap out of me. Yet I'm objective. The Green Bay Packers are a really good football team. In fact they are probably going to repeat as Superbowl champs.
OK, now that that is out of the way, let me tell you why they are not going to be undefeated.
This Thanksgiving (in four days as of the writing of this post) they face the new-and-improved Detroit Lions IN Detroit. As good as the Packers look and as good as they Packers have been, they face their toughest game of the year against the Lions.
There are two ways to defeat Aaron Rodgers. The first is match Rodgers in scoring. Aaron Rodgers is going to put up points but if you have the ball last and end up scoring on the final drive of the game, you can defeat the Packers. During the 2009-10 playoffs in the Wild Card Round, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals was able to defeat Aaron Rodgers- by putting up 51 points. In overtime. Kurt Warner had to throw five touchdown passes just to defeat Rodgers and the Packers 51-45.
The second way to defeat Aaron Rodgers is to not allow him to throw. This is no easy feat. Rodgers has a plethora of targets who are speedy route runners and Rodgers is extremely mobile and accurate and releases the ball very quickly. However, the last team to shut down Aaron Rodgers- the Detroit Lions.
In Week 14 of the 2010 season, the 6-10 Lions (2-10 before the start of the game) was able to beat the Packers by a score of 7-3. Aaron Rodgers' numbers in the game: 7 for 11, 46 passing yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. I've heard people have the audacity to say "Well, Aaron Rodgers had to leave the game so of course the Lions were able to win." B.S. First, the Lions suffocated every play Rodgers was in on. Second, Rodgers played all of the first quarter and 95% of the second- and still only allowed him to score three points.
(QUICK NOTE: It is not a good idea to stop Rodgers' receivers. He has too many guys to throw to and if you give Rodgers time, he will make plays, get first downs, and eventually score)
Unfortunately for the Green Bay Packers, the Detroit Lions can do both. Their amazing defensive line that stopped the Packers last year has been improved by the addition of rookie Nick Fairley and their overall defense is better than it was last year. This defense line is amazing at pass blocking and are athletic enough to get to Rodgers.
Plus, the Lions have something they did not have last year: Matthew Stafford. Just watching the few games Stafford has played in before 2011, you knew the talent and skills were there it was just that he couldn't stay healthy. Now that Stafford has started all 10 games this season, he has proven how good he is. Further, Green Bay ranks 31st in passing yards given up per game and 24th in YPA allowed.
Now the best way to defeat the Lions is to run on them. Detroit currently ranks 5th in passing yards allowed per game but only 28th in rushing yards allowed. Good for the Lions because the Packers do not really run the ball (Green Bay ranks 17th in rushing attempts) and they're not very good at it (they rank 24th in YPA).
It is true that Stafford and the Lions have shown vulnerability (see: their loses to Chicago and San Francisco) and they too have an extremely one dimensional offense and a one dimensional defense. However, the dimensions the Lions are good at are the reasons that they are a bad match up for the Green Bay Packers.
Showing posts with label Detroit Lions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Detroit Lions. Show all posts
The NFC Wild Card Picture
Since I decided to write about how I think the AFC wild card teams will turn out I decided to follow it up with my NFC predictions. This list is not how I think will make it to the playoffs, but who has the best chances of not winning their division but still earning a wild card birth.
1) Detroit Lions
I think the Lions are the clear cut favorite to earn at minimum the 6th seed
Pro
The Lions easily have the best defensive line in the NFL led by Donkey Kong (Ndamukong) Suh with Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and the now healthy rookie Nick Fairley. When you have the best D-line in the game you set yourself to have a great defense. Even though the Lions back seven is pretty shaky, their line pressure more than makes up for it. In fact, the Lions are second in the NFC in terms of points per game allowed (first is San Fran).
Not only can the Lions stop teams from scoring but their offense is electric with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson scoring points left and right.
Listen, the Lions are a good football team and no matter what, if you're a good football team you're going to win games and thus earn a playoff birth.
Con
The Lions can be beat
Detroit has some great strength (i.e. their passing game and their D-line) but they do have weaknesses which teams like the 49ers have exploited.
The Lions have a great passing D (6th in the NFL in yards allowed) but a terrible run defense (third to last in rushing yards allowed) and despite how good that front line is, they can be beat by quick passes. They have Aaron Rodgers (twice), Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and even Jay Cutler left on their schedule which all have the ability to find holes in their defense. Plus running backs like Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, and DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart to rush all over the Lions. I'm not saying the Lions aren't good enough to adjust their defense to neutralize all these offenses, they absolutely are (except for maybe Green Bay's) but those offenses aren't a walk in the park either.
The Lions are also extremely one dimensional on offense. It's Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson and that's it. And if you shut down Calvin Johnson then you shut down down the entire Lions offense. Again, no easy feat, but something that can very easily be accomplished.
The 49ers and Falcons showed the league a blueprint on how to beat the Lions- something I'm not sure teams had when the Lions started off 5-0.
Lastly, their schedule is not the easiest. They still have to face Green Bay twice, the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome, and get the San Diego Chargers at home. None of those games are slam dunks to me and three are division games.
2) Philadelphia Eagles
While Eagles certainly have a chance to win their division I think they dug themselves in too much of a whole to win it.
Pro
The Eagles have a top five offense. Right now they are 9th in the NFL (5th in the NFC) in terms of points scored and now that Michael Vick has stopped turning the ball over so much, the Eagles are using RB LeSean McCoy more (and better) and Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant are stepping their game up, this offense looks great. Even though DeSean Jackson has essentially been a no-show all season, this offense can both run on you and pass on you.
The Eagles also have history on their side. Say what you want about Andy Reid but he just wins down the stretch. Remember a few years ago when Donovan McNabb went out and Jeff Garcia won like eight straight games in a row? The Eagles are one of the few teams that I trust to go undefeated the rest of the year.
Con
I think last week was the first week in which Michael Vick finished a game healthy. I like Vince Young and Mike Kafka as back ups to start a game or two but it gets hard to force these guys into crunch time week after week.
The Eagles also have a tough schedule on their plate. They still have the face the Bears (4-3), Patriots (6-2), Jets (4-3), Giants (5-2), and the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington.
Lastly, while the Eagles have really good defensive players on their team, their defensive coordinator is terrible and does not utilize his players effectively. That's what you get when you hire your former offensive line coach to be your defensive coordinator and have nobody showing him tapes on Nnamdi in Oakland on how to use him correctly.
3) Chicago Bears
Call it bias, but be honest, you can not name another team in the NFC that I haven't already named or will win the division.
Pro
Matt Forte. 'Nuff said.
The Bears are actually running a more efficient offense since their debacle in Week Two against the Saints where the blitz friendly Saints D destroyed Cutler. Since then Mike Martz has introduced a heavy dose of Matt Forte in both the passing and rushing game and Cutler has not thrown an interception in three weeks.
The other thing the Bears have on their side is an easy schedule. They still haven't played anyone from the weak AFC West yet, they get the Chargers and Chiefs at home (the former I still believe as a good team and the latter who has one of the best home field advantages- Arrowhead), the Denver Broncos who will probably be led by Brady Quinn, the Oakland Raiders (who will be led by Carson Palmer and watch how terrible Palmer will be the rest of the year), the Lions and Packers at home and Seattle and Minnesota. The only game that scares me is the Packers and the Bears play the Packers very well at Soldier- even against Aaron Rodgers.
Con
It's still turnover prone Jay Cutler. While he's been good of late he still has the potential for 4-5 turnovers every week.
Plus, I don't think the Bears are as good of a team as either the Packers, Lions, Giants, or Eagles which puts them in a disadvantage to try and earn a wild card spot. I think the Lions are guaranteed to get a wild card spot and if I'm picking the Eagles versus the Bears, I'll pick Philly. Especially considering I think the Eagles defeat the Bears this upcoming Monday at Lincoln Field. The Bears are not in the driver's seat to control their own destiny (even though the Bears are currently the 6th seed in the NFC as of the writing of this post).
Neither their offense or defense has been amazing and I don't think either have top five potential. They have not been *that* good at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks or stopping the run and if any team shuts down Matt Forte then their offense is done.
4) Atlanta Falcons
If the playoffs started today, Atlanta would finish 8th (Tampa Bay would be 7th because they defeated the Falcons once this year)
Pro
Atlanta's offense still consists of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. If I'm an opposing defense there's not a single player that I want to say "OK, you try and beat me" like a Kerry Collins led Tennessee Titans with (good) Chris Johnson. The team also has a pass rush (soon to come) of John Abraham and Ray Edwards. The team just came off of a win of the Lions in Detroit and they look like a team finally putting it together.
Con
First losing to Tampa Bay and the Bears, the teams directly ahead of them in the playoffs standings doesn't help them. Secondly, while they have a boatload of talent, they're just jot utilizing it properly. Their offense ranks 17th in points scored per game and 20th in points allowed per game.
Even when this team was clicking (like it was last year when they went 13-3 and earned the first seed in the NFC) I didn't trust them. Matt Ryan for his career has a low YPA (this year, even with Julio Jones, Ryan ranks 26th of all active quarterback behind the greats like Curtis Painter, Joe Flacco, Tarvaris Jackson) and no one on their defense truly scares me either. Clay Matthews scares me. Donkey Kong Suh scares me. Julius Peppers scares me. No one on Atlanta's defense scares me and I said that last year.
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defeating division rivals New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons always helps with both winning a division and playoff births but this team just looks terrible. Last year, the Bucs won nine games because of the emergence of Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and LaGarette Blount. All three of those guys have taken a step back this year. Blount had been injured, Williams looks terrible and looks like the third best receiver on his team, and Freeman looks like he reverted back to his rookie season rather than improving on his sophomore season.
Tampa just had their bye so we'll see if they fixed their problems but until they show me that they can play like they did last year, then I believe their chances of earning a wild card spot is low.
6) Dallas Cowboys
Pro
Well, they dooooo have the same record as the Philadelphia Eagles, so theoretically it's possible
Con
They have Tony Romo starting at quarterback and they're currently not in first place.
7) St. Louis Rams
OK, here me out. I know they have the worst record in the NFC and only have one win, but if they win their next 9 games they can go 10-6!
There's no amount of money or odds you can give me that I would bet on about the Rams making the playoffs, but coming into the season you could see how front loaded their schedule is (although he all thought San Fran would be just as terrible at the rest of the NFC West).
To me, the Rams are the best worst team and they still get to play Seattle and Arizona twice and the Cleveland Browns. That's five games right there that's winnable and if the Rams do win all those game then they're 6-6 and potentially in the hunt.
Unfortunately they do have to play San Francisco (twice), the Cincinnati Bengals, and Pittsburgh Steelers which would put the Rams back at 7-9 again, but hey, a boy can dream can't he?
1) Detroit Lions
I think the Lions are the clear cut favorite to earn at minimum the 6th seed
Pro
The Lions easily have the best defensive line in the NFL led by Donkey Kong (Ndamukong) Suh with Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and the now healthy rookie Nick Fairley. When you have the best D-line in the game you set yourself to have a great defense. Even though the Lions back seven is pretty shaky, their line pressure more than makes up for it. In fact, the Lions are second in the NFC in terms of points per game allowed (first is San Fran).
Not only can the Lions stop teams from scoring but their offense is electric with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson scoring points left and right.
Listen, the Lions are a good football team and no matter what, if you're a good football team you're going to win games and thus earn a playoff birth.
Con
The Lions can be beat
Detroit has some great strength (i.e. their passing game and their D-line) but they do have weaknesses which teams like the 49ers have exploited.
The Lions have a great passing D (6th in the NFL in yards allowed) but a terrible run defense (third to last in rushing yards allowed) and despite how good that front line is, they can be beat by quick passes. They have Aaron Rodgers (twice), Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and even Jay Cutler left on their schedule which all have the ability to find holes in their defense. Plus running backs like Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, and DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart to rush all over the Lions. I'm not saying the Lions aren't good enough to adjust their defense to neutralize all these offenses, they absolutely are (except for maybe Green Bay's) but those offenses aren't a walk in the park either.
The Lions are also extremely one dimensional on offense. It's Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson and that's it. And if you shut down Calvin Johnson then you shut down down the entire Lions offense. Again, no easy feat, but something that can very easily be accomplished.
The 49ers and Falcons showed the league a blueprint on how to beat the Lions- something I'm not sure teams had when the Lions started off 5-0.
Lastly, their schedule is not the easiest. They still have to face Green Bay twice, the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome, and get the San Diego Chargers at home. None of those games are slam dunks to me and three are division games.
2) Philadelphia Eagles
While Eagles certainly have a chance to win their division I think they dug themselves in too much of a whole to win it.
Pro
The Eagles have a top five offense. Right now they are 9th in the NFL (5th in the NFC) in terms of points scored and now that Michael Vick has stopped turning the ball over so much, the Eagles are using RB LeSean McCoy more (and better) and Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant are stepping their game up, this offense looks great. Even though DeSean Jackson has essentially been a no-show all season, this offense can both run on you and pass on you.
The Eagles also have history on their side. Say what you want about Andy Reid but he just wins down the stretch. Remember a few years ago when Donovan McNabb went out and Jeff Garcia won like eight straight games in a row? The Eagles are one of the few teams that I trust to go undefeated the rest of the year.
Con
I think last week was the first week in which Michael Vick finished a game healthy. I like Vince Young and Mike Kafka as back ups to start a game or two but it gets hard to force these guys into crunch time week after week.
The Eagles also have a tough schedule on their plate. They still have the face the Bears (4-3), Patriots (6-2), Jets (4-3), Giants (5-2), and the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington.
Lastly, while the Eagles have really good defensive players on their team, their defensive coordinator is terrible and does not utilize his players effectively. That's what you get when you hire your former offensive line coach to be your defensive coordinator and have nobody showing him tapes on Nnamdi in Oakland on how to use him correctly.
3) Chicago Bears
Call it bias, but be honest, you can not name another team in the NFC that I haven't already named or will win the division.
Pro
Matt Forte. 'Nuff said.
The Bears are actually running a more efficient offense since their debacle in Week Two against the Saints where the blitz friendly Saints D destroyed Cutler. Since then Mike Martz has introduced a heavy dose of Matt Forte in both the passing and rushing game and Cutler has not thrown an interception in three weeks.
The other thing the Bears have on their side is an easy schedule. They still haven't played anyone from the weak AFC West yet, they get the Chargers and Chiefs at home (the former I still believe as a good team and the latter who has one of the best home field advantages- Arrowhead), the Denver Broncos who will probably be led by Brady Quinn, the Oakland Raiders (who will be led by Carson Palmer and watch how terrible Palmer will be the rest of the year), the Lions and Packers at home and Seattle and Minnesota. The only game that scares me is the Packers and the Bears play the Packers very well at Soldier- even against Aaron Rodgers.
Con
It's still turnover prone Jay Cutler. While he's been good of late he still has the potential for 4-5 turnovers every week.
Plus, I don't think the Bears are as good of a team as either the Packers, Lions, Giants, or Eagles which puts them in a disadvantage to try and earn a wild card spot. I think the Lions are guaranteed to get a wild card spot and if I'm picking the Eagles versus the Bears, I'll pick Philly. Especially considering I think the Eagles defeat the Bears this upcoming Monday at Lincoln Field. The Bears are not in the driver's seat to control their own destiny (even though the Bears are currently the 6th seed in the NFC as of the writing of this post).
Neither their offense or defense has been amazing and I don't think either have top five potential. They have not been *that* good at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks or stopping the run and if any team shuts down Matt Forte then their offense is done.
4) Atlanta Falcons
If the playoffs started today, Atlanta would finish 8th (Tampa Bay would be 7th because they defeated the Falcons once this year)
Pro
Atlanta's offense still consists of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. If I'm an opposing defense there's not a single player that I want to say "OK, you try and beat me" like a Kerry Collins led Tennessee Titans with (good) Chris Johnson. The team also has a pass rush (soon to come) of John Abraham and Ray Edwards. The team just came off of a win of the Lions in Detroit and they look like a team finally putting it together.
Con
First losing to Tampa Bay and the Bears, the teams directly ahead of them in the playoffs standings doesn't help them. Secondly, while they have a boatload of talent, they're just jot utilizing it properly. Their offense ranks 17th in points scored per game and 20th in points allowed per game.
Even when this team was clicking (like it was last year when they went 13-3 and earned the first seed in the NFC) I didn't trust them. Matt Ryan for his career has a low YPA (this year, even with Julio Jones, Ryan ranks 26th of all active quarterback behind the greats like Curtis Painter, Joe Flacco, Tarvaris Jackson) and no one on their defense truly scares me either. Clay Matthews scares me. Donkey Kong Suh scares me. Julius Peppers scares me. No one on Atlanta's defense scares me and I said that last year.
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defeating division rivals New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons always helps with both winning a division and playoff births but this team just looks terrible. Last year, the Bucs won nine games because of the emergence of Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and LaGarette Blount. All three of those guys have taken a step back this year. Blount had been injured, Williams looks terrible and looks like the third best receiver on his team, and Freeman looks like he reverted back to his rookie season rather than improving on his sophomore season.
Tampa just had their bye so we'll see if they fixed their problems but until they show me that they can play like they did last year, then I believe their chances of earning a wild card spot is low.
6) Dallas Cowboys
Pro
Well, they dooooo have the same record as the Philadelphia Eagles, so theoretically it's possible
Con
They have Tony Romo starting at quarterback and they're currently not in first place.
7) St. Louis Rams
OK, here me out. I know they have the worst record in the NFC and only have one win, but if they win their next 9 games they can go 10-6!
There's no amount of money or odds you can give me that I would bet on about the Rams making the playoffs, but coming into the season you could see how front loaded their schedule is (although he all thought San Fran would be just as terrible at the rest of the NFC West).
To me, the Rams are the best worst team and they still get to play Seattle and Arizona twice and the Cleveland Browns. That's five games right there that's winnable and if the Rams do win all those game then they're 6-6 and potentially in the hunt.
Unfortunately they do have to play San Francisco (twice), the Cincinnati Bengals, and Pittsburgh Steelers which would put the Rams back at 7-9 again, but hey, a boy can dream can't he?
2011 Draft Special: Pick #13- Detroit Lions
Considering the Lions play in the NFC North I'm actually pretty familiar with the team's strength and weaknesses and what positions they need for the draft. However, a good friend of mine and of the podcast (and the person who suggested these posts), Daniel Bennett, is from the Detroit area and is a huge Lions fan. So I've asked him to guest write the Lions piece (with *maybe* a few edits of my own). And here... we... GO!
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Being one of three Lions fans left in the world, Sexy Rexy has asked me to do the draft analysis for Detroit, so I will try not to disappoint. You may think that a franchise that has been rebuilding since 1957, that has not been to the playoffs since 1999, has not had a .500+ season in the last decade, currently holds the NFL consecutive road loss record with 26, and had an 0-16 season may just as well pack it in, but alas, we finally have reason for hope. Two years ago, in the first non- Matt Millen run draft in the past 10 years- the Lions picked what will hopefully be a solid franchise quarterback in Matthew Stafford. Then to follow it up last year the Lions picked up one of the most dominate rookie tackles to ever play the game... Donkey Kong Suh. For the first time in a long time, we Lions fans have hope.
Even with the franchise quarterback out for the season, the Lions were able to scrape together 6 wins (7 if you count that Johnson touchdown in Chicago- and I do), which is Detroit's second highest win total since 1999. This has earned the Lions the 13th pick in the draft, which allows a little breathing space which is needed since the first overall picks the last couple years is starting to really add up.
The offensive skilled positions are pretty much set. Megatron and Nate Burleson both had good years in 2010 and they should only improve in 2010. Adding Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler which the Lions like to run out of a double tight end set adds two more capable receivers and much needed extra protection on the line. The offensive line does need some help, especially on the right side, but again, being able to have two tight ends in to help block makes life a little easier on the quarterback and the running game. Finally, while the Maurice Morris/ Jahvid Best tandem could use some improving, there are many more needs on the other side of the ball that will help bring the Lions up to a contender’s status.
The defense is another story. The defensive line, I would dare to say, is one of the best in the league. Suh had 10 sacks last year as an interior lineman and consistently demanded a double team freeing up Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril, and Corey Williams who combined for another 14 sacks. Pressure was constant on opposing quarterbacks and this caused many rushed passes- which was needed to help compensate for the abysmal secondary.
Any type of screen play, quick pass, or run that made it past the front four went for big yards and typically demanded team tackling since no one player could bring anyone down themselves. Detroit's defense allowed the 8th highest completion percentage, allowing quarterbacks to complete almost 64% of their passes. Quarterbacks also averaged a QB rating of 89.2 against this dreadful defense. At the same time, the defense also only had 14 interceptions this season, one of them being by Donkey Kong, so 13 interceptions by the secondary in 16 games needs to be improved upon. Plus, the NFL rankings and statistics do not even begin to show how bad this secondary is, it is just one of those teams you have to watch to fully appreciate the awfulness.
The back seven was atrocious in 2010 so the Lions are in desperate need of a linebacker, safety, or cornerback. According to Scout's Inc, the best value picks in this area are all defensive lineman or wide receivers- none of which the Lions badly need. Therefore, the best pick available for the Lions is UCLA outside linebacker Akeem Ayers. For the next few rounds the Lions should address their offensive line and secondary needs.
Lions' Needs:
- Linebackers
While showing some signs of competence, the linebacker core could not hold their own against lineman or running backs. For this team to become legitimate contenders, an upgrade is necessary.
- Cornerbacks
Again, the pass defense is in the bottom 3rd in the league, and this is in a division that is hard to pass in come November. The defensive secondary needs a serious upgrade.
- Offensive Linemen
Jeff Backus was unanimously named the toughest left tackle in the NFC North by his opposing defensive lineman in his division. Unfortunately, his counterparts on the right side of the line are the reason the Lions are known as the “laydowns”.
- Quarterback
Many people think that Stafford’s career is done before it’s even started. I remain on the fence. While he has missed a significant amount of games, it is due to two unrelated injuries and the Lions have too much money invested in him to give up this year. However, if he does not start at least 14 games next season, Andrew Luck may be looking at a career in Detroit.
To end a positive note, it finally looks like our Pontiac pussycats are finally turning back into the Lions that dominated the league in the 50’s.
Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
11) Houston Texans- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
12) Minnesota Vikings- Nate Solder (Colorado)
