Since I decided to write about how I think the AFC wild card teams will turn out I decided to follow it up with my NFC predictions. This list is not how I think will make it to the playoffs, but who has the best chances of not winning their division but still earning a wild card birth.
1) Detroit Lions
I think the Lions are the clear cut favorite to earn at minimum the 6th seed
Pro
The Lions easily have the best defensive line in the NFL led by Donkey Kong (Ndamukong) Suh with Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and the now healthy rookie Nick Fairley. When you have the best D-line in the game you set yourself to have a great defense. Even though the Lions back seven is pretty shaky, their line pressure more than makes up for it. In fact, the Lions are second in the NFC in terms of points per game allowed (first is San Fran).
Not only can the Lions stop teams from scoring but their offense is electric with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson scoring points left and right.
Listen, the Lions are a good football team and no matter what, if you're a good football team you're going to win games and thus earn a playoff birth.
Con
The Lions can be beat
Detroit has some great strength (i.e. their passing game and their D-line) but they do have weaknesses which teams like the 49ers have exploited.
The Lions have a great passing D (6th in the NFL in yards allowed) but a terrible run defense (third to last in rushing yards allowed) and despite how good that front line is, they can be beat by quick passes. They have Aaron Rodgers (twice), Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and even Jay Cutler left on their schedule which all have the ability to find holes in their defense. Plus running backs like Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, and DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart to rush all over the Lions. I'm not saying the Lions aren't good enough to adjust their defense to neutralize all these offenses, they absolutely are (except for maybe Green Bay's) but those offenses aren't a walk in the park either.
The Lions are also extremely one dimensional on offense. It's Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson and that's it. And if you shut down Calvin Johnson then you shut down down the entire Lions offense. Again, no easy feat, but something that can very easily be accomplished.
The 49ers and Falcons showed the league a blueprint on how to beat the Lions- something I'm not sure teams had when the Lions started off 5-0.
Lastly, their schedule is not the easiest. They still have to face Green Bay twice, the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome, and get the San Diego Chargers at home. None of those games are slam dunks to me and three are division games.
2) Philadelphia Eagles
While Eagles certainly have a chance to win their division I think they dug themselves in too much of a whole to win it.
Pro
The Eagles have a top five offense. Right now they are 9th in the NFL (5th in the NFC) in terms of points scored and now that Michael Vick has stopped turning the ball over so much, the Eagles are using RB LeSean McCoy more (and better) and Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant are stepping their game up, this offense looks great. Even though DeSean Jackson has essentially been a no-show all season, this offense can both run on you and pass on you.
The Eagles also have history on their side. Say what you want about Andy Reid but he just wins down the stretch. Remember a few years ago when Donovan McNabb went out and Jeff Garcia won like eight straight games in a row? The Eagles are one of the few teams that I trust to go undefeated the rest of the year.
Con
I think last week was the first week in which Michael Vick finished a game healthy. I like Vince Young and Mike Kafka as back ups to start a game or two but it gets hard to force these guys into crunch time week after week.
The Eagles also have a tough schedule on their plate. They still have the face the Bears (4-3), Patriots (6-2), Jets (4-3), Giants (5-2), and the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington.
Lastly, while the Eagles have really good defensive players on their team, their defensive coordinator is terrible and does not utilize his players effectively. That's what you get when you hire your former offensive line coach to be your defensive coordinator and have nobody showing him tapes on Nnamdi in Oakland on how to use him correctly.
3) Chicago Bears
Call it bias, but be honest, you can not name another team in the NFC that I haven't already named or will win the division.
Pro
Matt Forte. 'Nuff said.
The Bears are actually running a more efficient offense since their debacle in Week Two against the Saints where the blitz friendly Saints D destroyed Cutler. Since then Mike Martz has introduced a heavy dose of Matt Forte in both the passing and rushing game and Cutler has not thrown an interception in three weeks.
The other thing the Bears have on their side is an easy schedule. They still haven't played anyone from the weak AFC West yet, they get the Chargers and Chiefs at home (the former I still believe as a good team and the latter who has one of the best home field advantages- Arrowhead), the Denver Broncos who will probably be led by Brady Quinn, the Oakland Raiders (who will be led by Carson Palmer and watch how terrible Palmer will be the rest of the year), the Lions and Packers at home and Seattle and Minnesota. The only game that scares me is the Packers and the Bears play the Packers very well at Soldier- even against Aaron Rodgers.
Con
It's still turnover prone Jay Cutler. While he's been good of late he still has the potential for 4-5 turnovers every week.
Plus, I don't think the Bears are as good of a team as either the Packers, Lions, Giants, or Eagles which puts them in a disadvantage to try and earn a wild card spot. I think the Lions are guaranteed to get a wild card spot and if I'm picking the Eagles versus the Bears, I'll pick Philly. Especially considering I think the Eagles defeat the Bears this upcoming Monday at Lincoln Field. The Bears are not in the driver's seat to control their own destiny (even though the Bears are currently the 6th seed in the NFC as of the writing of this post).
Neither their offense or defense has been amazing and I don't think either have top five potential. They have not been *that* good at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks or stopping the run and if any team shuts down Matt Forte then their offense is done.
4) Atlanta Falcons
If the playoffs started today, Atlanta would finish 8th (Tampa Bay would be 7th because they defeated the Falcons once this year)
Pro
Atlanta's offense still consists of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. If I'm an opposing defense there's not a single player that I want to say "OK, you try and beat me" like a Kerry Collins led Tennessee Titans with (good) Chris Johnson. The team also has a pass rush (soon to come) of John Abraham and Ray Edwards. The team just came off of a win of the Lions in Detroit and they look like a team finally putting it together.
Con
First losing to Tampa Bay and the Bears, the teams directly ahead of them in the playoffs standings doesn't help them. Secondly, while they have a boatload of talent, they're just jot utilizing it properly. Their offense ranks 17th in points scored per game and 20th in points allowed per game.
Even when this team was clicking (like it was last year when they went 13-3 and earned the first seed in the NFC) I didn't trust them. Matt Ryan for his career has a low YPA (this year, even with Julio Jones, Ryan ranks 26th of all active quarterback behind the greats like Curtis Painter, Joe Flacco, Tarvaris Jackson) and no one on their defense truly scares me either. Clay Matthews scares me. Donkey Kong Suh scares me. Julius Peppers scares me. No one on Atlanta's defense scares me and I said that last year.
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defeating division rivals New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons always helps with both winning a division and playoff births but this team just looks terrible. Last year, the Bucs won nine games because of the emergence of Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and LaGarette Blount. All three of those guys have taken a step back this year. Blount had been injured, Williams looks terrible and looks like the third best receiver on his team, and Freeman looks like he reverted back to his rookie season rather than improving on his sophomore season.
Tampa just had their bye so we'll see if they fixed their problems but until they show me that they can play like they did last year, then I believe their chances of earning a wild card spot is low.
6) Dallas Cowboys
Pro
Well, they dooooo have the same record as the Philadelphia Eagles, so theoretically it's possible
Con
They have Tony Romo starting at quarterback and they're currently not in first place.
7) St. Louis Rams
OK, here me out. I know they have the worst record in the NFC and only have one win, but if they win their next 9 games they can go 10-6!
There's no amount of money or odds you can give me that I would bet on about the Rams making the playoffs, but coming into the season you could see how front loaded their schedule is (although he all thought San Fran would be just as terrible at the rest of the NFC West).
To me, the Rams are the best worst team and they still get to play Seattle and Arizona twice and the Cleveland Browns. That's five games right there that's winnable and if the Rams do win all those game then they're 6-6 and potentially in the hunt.
Unfortunately they do have to play San Francisco (twice), the Cincinnati Bengals, and Pittsburgh Steelers which would put the Rams back at 7-9 again, but hey, a boy can dream can't he?
Showing posts with label St. Louis Rams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label St. Louis Rams. Show all posts
2011 Draft Special: Pick #14- St. Louis Rams
Considering the Rams were one game/ two Laurent Robinson drops away from winning their division, I forget they still ended up with a losing record.
As much as Lions DT Donkey Kong Suh is the better player and was the better prospect, the Rams made the right choice in drafting Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford. This kid looks amazing, and it shouldn't be a shock considering he looked amazing in college. It turned out going back to his senior year, hurting his shoulder, and essentially missing his entire last year didn't hurt him one bit. He still was the #1 pick in the draft and he still plays like nothing ever happened to him.
Bradford set the rookie record with the most completions, most pass attempts without an interception, and for most times me fawning over him in Box Score Tonight's. In the biggest game of his pro career, the Rams Week 17 game against Seattle, he looked amazing but his receivers were just awful. I don't think there's a synonym of "bad" that's strong enough to explain how putrid the Rams receivers are. (Although putrid is pretty darn close). The Rams two best receivers are Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton- who played a combined four total games. Both receivers should be healthy which can only help in Bradford's development. Illinois rookie tight end Michael Hoomanawanui also looked like a really good target for Bradford (in the few games he was healthy) and he's a guy whom the Rams really like. But even with those players back, the Rams still probably have the second worst receiving corps (right ahead of the Browns).
Steven Jackson is a stud but was hampered by an atrocious offensive line which ranked 25th in run blocking but 10th in pass blocking.
St. Louis improved their defense from 2009 to 2010, but it wasn't THAT hard to do considering they had the second worst defense two years ago. To be honest, I can only name two players on St. Louis's defense and that's only because 1) I looked up the defense and 2) both players were high first round draft picks in James Laurentis and Chris Long. According to Advanced NFL Stats, Laurentis was the 7th best linebacker and Long was the 8th best defensive end so these players are coming into their own and are becoming worth their first round draft pick. The team has some other nice complementary parts like cornerback Bradley Fletcher and safety Oshiomoghho Atogwe but all of those pieces can be replaced easily.
Despite the NFC West being wide open for the taking, the Rams first priority needs to be the development of Sam Bradford. Even if every Ram takes a huge step forward, this team is still not close to making it to the Superbowl. Winning the division and a playoff birth is nice, but this team needs to focus long term because they have the chance to make multiple playoff runs. So while an elite defensive player might help this term in the short run (granted also probably the long run) I think the Rams need to focus on Bradford first and the overall team second. Plus, there's no reason the Rams can't do both- they DO HAVE six more rounds after this plus free agency.
Therefore, I think the Rams need to choose between an offensive lineman or a wide receiver. An elite offensive lineman will ideally not only give Bradford more time to throw but also open up rushing lanes for Steven Jackson (and a more effective Steven Jackson should lead to a more effective Sam Bradford). But I look at the way Bradford played this year with his average line and the one obstacle in his way was his receivers. Plus, if Bradford becomes more effective that in turn will open up for rushing lanes for Jackson. That's why I think the Rams should go wide receiver here. And there's one prime for the taking: Alabama's Julio Jones.
While reading the scouting report in him there are some things that make me questioon why he's a first rounder. Things like
Rams's Needs:
- Defense
Despite the fact they were really two drops away from a playoff birth, this is still not that good of a team, and like all bad teams, they need any defensive player they can get
- Offensive Lineman
As much as Lions DT Donkey Kong Suh is the better player and was the better prospect, the Rams made the right choice in drafting Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford. This kid looks amazing, and it shouldn't be a shock considering he looked amazing in college. It turned out going back to his senior year, hurting his shoulder, and essentially missing his entire last year didn't hurt him one bit. He still was the #1 pick in the draft and he still plays like nothing ever happened to him.
Bradford set the rookie record with the most completions, most pass attempts without an interception, and for most times me fawning over him in Box Score Tonight's. In the biggest game of his pro career, the Rams Week 17 game against Seattle, he looked amazing but his receivers were just awful. I don't think there's a synonym of "bad" that's strong enough to explain how putrid the Rams receivers are. (Although putrid is pretty darn close). The Rams two best receivers are Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton- who played a combined four total games. Both receivers should be healthy which can only help in Bradford's development. Illinois rookie tight end Michael Hoomanawanui also looked like a really good target for Bradford (in the few games he was healthy) and he's a guy whom the Rams really like. But even with those players back, the Rams still probably have the second worst receiving corps (right ahead of the Browns).
Steven Jackson is a stud but was hampered by an atrocious offensive line which ranked 25th in run blocking but 10th in pass blocking.
St. Louis improved their defense from 2009 to 2010, but it wasn't THAT hard to do considering they had the second worst defense two years ago. To be honest, I can only name two players on St. Louis's defense and that's only because 1) I looked up the defense and 2) both players were high first round draft picks in James Laurentis and Chris Long. According to Advanced NFL Stats, Laurentis was the 7th best linebacker and Long was the 8th best defensive end so these players are coming into their own and are becoming worth their first round draft pick. The team has some other nice complementary parts like cornerback Bradley Fletcher and safety Oshiomoghho Atogwe but all of those pieces can be replaced easily.
Despite the NFC West being wide open for the taking, the Rams first priority needs to be the development of Sam Bradford. Even if every Ram takes a huge step forward, this team is still not close to making it to the Superbowl. Winning the division and a playoff birth is nice, but this team needs to focus long term because they have the chance to make multiple playoff runs. So while an elite defensive player might help this term in the short run (granted also probably the long run) I think the Rams need to focus on Bradford first and the overall team second. Plus, there's no reason the Rams can't do both- they DO HAVE six more rounds after this plus free agency.
Therefore, I think the Rams need to choose between an offensive lineman or a wide receiver. An elite offensive lineman will ideally not only give Bradford more time to throw but also open up rushing lanes for Steven Jackson (and a more effective Steven Jackson should lead to a more effective Sam Bradford). But I look at the way Bradford played this year with his average line and the one obstacle in his way was his receivers. Plus, if Bradford becomes more effective that in turn will open up for rushing lanes for Jackson. That's why I think the Rams should go wide receiver here. And there's one prime for the taking: Alabama's Julio Jones.
While reading the scouting report in him there are some things that make me questioon why he's a first rounder. Things like
Flashes strong hands but has some inconsistency in this area. Can allow balls into his frame on occasion, resulting in drops. Also needs to do a better job of securing the ball in trafficBut at the other end things like a number one ranking for his big play ability and "Willing to work the middle of the field" are great skills that will only help Bradford. If Jones is an elite of a receiver as "experts" are making him out to be, then I can foresee Rick Blaine saying to them "This is the beginning of a beautiful friendship"
Rams's Needs:
- Defense
Despite the fact they were really two drops away from a playoff birth, this is still not that good of a team, and like all bad teams, they need any defensive player they can get
- Offensive Lineman
