I believe the San Diego Chargers will win it all this year.
I'm sure you are saying what every one whom I told this to has said "What!? Really!? You're picking the Chargers? Why?"
Yes I really and honestly believe the Chargers will win it all this year. As a Bears and Patriots fan I will be rooting for those teams to win it all, but as a football fan I believe San Diego, or Whale's Vagina, will win it all. And no, I am not writing this post just to write Anchorman jokes. Although I'm sure they will be dispersed throughout this post. But that will be just a bonus.
Before I explain my reasoning, let me first say that we here at GOI do not, and have never believed in full out predictions. Although we enjoy to say what our predictions are and you the fans seem to enjoy them, don't believe in them any more than you can throw them. (NOTE: We here at GOI do not endorse throwing your computer). But now, my reasoning that you can pick apart for various of reasons- the main one being is that you're a hater- for why I think the Chargers will win the Superbowl.
Were you aware that the Chargers were first in defense and offense last year? If you were not it's a fact you'll here often whenever you here the mainstream media (i.e. ESPN) talk about the Chargers. Even being #1 the main reason the Chargers missed the playoffs was because of their sub-par special teams. Any book you've ever read from smart people who know football (Some really good ones are The Hidden Game of Football and The Blueprint) will tell you how important special teams are and hopefully the Chargers organization should also know how important it is considering that was the main reason they did not even win their division.
Now granted, the way people rank the Chargers #1 in offense and defense was by yards and not points scored / allowed. But my counter to that is 1) if you can move the ball / prevent your opponent from moving the ball then you're in great shape 2) the Chargers were #2 last year in points scored per game 3) the Chargers were 11th in points allowed per game. While not #1 in both offense and defense that is still really damn good.
I think the Chargers will still have a good offense and defense in 2011, but let me address their special team- their bane of existence from last season. First, NFL's new kickoff rules will help prevent any sort of kick returns which really helps the Chargers because teams will score less on Chargers than they have from last season. Next, special teams is the easiest thing to fix. It is not like the offense or defense where you need to draft lineman and implement schemes. A team's special team consists of back up players anyways- guys who never start no matter what. Third, the Chargers have realized they needed to make some change and that is why they have hired a new special teams coach who realizes the Chargers special team sucks and is working to improve it.
Another problem the Chargers had last year, besides their special teams, was that they had a bad takeaway/giveaway ratio last season. This is also easy fixable and not predictive from season to season.
Next let's move on to their offense. I think the Chargers will have the best offense in football next year. It is no secret that I have a man crush on Philip Rivers. I was down on him in fantasy football last year because he didn't have any receivers to throw to. And then those no-nothing receivers got hurt and then he absolutely had no receivers to throw to him. Sam Bradford was looking at the Chargers receiving corps and laughed at how bad they were. But what did Rivers do? He stepped up his game and became one of the best quarterbacks in the game. In fact, in November, I thought Rivers was the runner up to be NFL MVP. Now this year, Rivers will have top 10 receiver Vincent Jackson for the entire year and hopefully a full year of Malcolm Floyd (I'm not going to predict anyone besides Frank Gore and Reggie Bush to be injured in 2011).
I don't live at the alter of the theory that you need to an elite quarterback to win a Superbowl. While it certainly helps (see: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees) there have been some great quarterbacks who have never won one (Dan Marino) and some mediocre and bad quarterbacks who have won one (Eli Manning, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer). With that being said, Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback. He will win at least one Superbowl and I believe his time will come this year.
While I think this offense will be better than the defense, the team still took steps to help improve its defense like drafting DT Corey Luiget, signing LB Takeo Spikes and another year with some young guys like LB Larry English, CB Antoine Cason, and LB James Holt.
One point I have heard against the Chargers winning the Superbowl is that Norv Turner tends to lose in the playoffs and that is why, no matter how good the Chargers are, they will never win it. My retort to that is 1) That is a terrible reason and has no predictive value for the future 2) The real coach you are thinking about is Turner's predecessor Marty Schottenheimer 3) In 2007 the Chargers won 2 playoffs games and lost in the AFC Championship Game, in 2008 the Charges beat the Colts in a playoff game, in 2009 the Chargers had a first round bye but did lose their playoff game that they played. 4) That comment was retarded.
I like the Chargers this year to come out of the AFC. I understand the Patriots won 14 games last season and still have a better team than they did last season and that the Colts and Jets are still very good teams, but I am predicting San Diego to win it all. I'm sure I'll be wrong, but this is my point and I'm sticking to it.
Showing posts with label san diego chargers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label san diego chargers. Show all posts
2011 Draft Special: Pick #18- San Diego Chargers
In 2011, the San Diego Chargers ranked first in offensive yards, second in points per game, third in first downs, fourth in third down percentage (offensive), first in yards given up (meaning their defensive gave up the fewest yards), 10th best in points allowed per game, and 4th best in third down conversions allowed.
And this team missed the playoffs?
Well here's why. THE best indicator to winning games is giveaways and takeaways. The Chargers were awful at that in 2010 giving up the ball six times for every one time they got a take away. Here were the top five teams in the AFC in terms of turnover differential (in order): Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs, Jets, and Ravens. Notice a trend there? All five of those teams made the playoffs.
Another reason San Diego missed the playoffs: special teams. An extremely underrated aspect of the game. I truly believe that special teams count for one third of play (with defense and offense being the other two thirds). Sure, the special teams are not on the field nearly as long as the offense and defense are, but they're just as important. So even though the Chargers were really freaking good on offense and defense, they were bad on special teams.
The Chargers were tied for first in kickoff yards given up, first in kickoff touchdowns given up, tied for second in punt touchdowns given up, fifth in punt yards given up, and first in average yards per punt given up.
Both of San Diego's main woes in 2010 are easily correctable. Getting better in special teams just takes a better special teams coach and Tiki Barber can tell you what to do to help an offensive with its give away problems.
According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers had the 4th best offense, 2nd best pass offense, 18th best rushing offense, were the most consistent offense week to week, 9th best defense, 4th best pass defense, 10th best rush defense, and the worst special teams.
This team also missed 15 games of Vincent Jackson, five games of Malcolm Floyd, and spent the entire season with the corpse of Ryan Matthews.
This team is not only set to win the AFC West again but poised to make a Superbowl run.
Both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have Illinois defensive tackle Corey Luiget already drafted at this point, but I'm going to take the advice of The 'Bright' One (A guy who actually watched Illini football games on a consistent basis) and say Luiget does not deserve to be a first rounder. Both Kiper and McShay have defensive ends Cameron Jordan and Adrian Clayborn going high as well. All would be great fits for this team. But my number one go to philosophy is that you can never have enough offensive lineman.
There are some great ones out there like Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi but not only do I love the talent of his brother but I love his versatility. So I say the Chargers should draft G/C Mike Pouncey from Florida. But if I'm truly in the Chargers position, I would trade this first round pick because that's where I think the true value is with this pick.
I can't believe I almost went this entire post without praising Philip Rivers. While I do not truly believe you need an elite quarterback to win a Superbowl (see: Trent Dilfer's Ravens, Eli Manning's Giants) it sure as hell helps. And Rivers is an elite quarterback. He is amazing. I can't say enough good things about Rivers. And for all you haters who make the argument "Well, Rivers isn't elite yet because he hasn't won a ring" then you're an idiot. Both these arguments were made about Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers before their respective Superbowl wins and these players were/are the same elite talent before their win as well as after. Plus, one of (if not THE) greatest quarterbacks of all time is Dan Marino. Who is ringless.
Anyways, Rivers is phenomenal.
Charger's Needs:
- Kick Returner
- Better Coaching
Game Of Inches Mock Draft (so far):
1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
8) Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
9) Dallas Cowboys- DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
10) Washington Redskins- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)
11) Houston Texans- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
12) Minnesota Vikings- OT Nate Solder (Colorado)
13) Detriot Lions- OLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
14) St. Louis Rams- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)
15) Miami Dolphins- DE/OLB Aldon Smith (Missouri)
16) Jacksonville Jaguars- DE J.J. Watt (Wisconsin)
17) New England Patriots- OT Tyron Smith (USC)
Rivers or Brees: Did the Chargers Make The Right Choice?
Drew Brees has always been a really good QB throughout his entire career. But in 2006, the San Diego Chargers had a choice to make: Do they attempt to re-sign their pretty good QB in Brees, or do they let him go into free agency and stick with their young “#1 overall” draft pick Philip Rivers? Well, I think we all know how that decision turned out. Three seasons later and Philip Rivers is a top five QB in the league and Drew Brees just won the city of New Orleans a Superbowl. The Chargers could have easily traded away their young prospect and stick with what they know what works, but they didn’t. So, did they make the right choice?
It’s obviously really hard to make a full, objective comparison because both QBs play in different systems with different receivers had different running games and whatnot. A ten yard throw on a out rout to Vincent Jackson might get caught but essentially the same exact throw to Marques Colston might get dropped- thus looking different on each QBs stats. However, both QBs are elite guys and the statistical comparisons can still be pretty accurate.
I think the best place to start looking to see if the Chargers made the right choice is to look at the contracts each QB received. If Brees is slightly better than Rivers statistically but is getting paid 5 million more per year, then it’s still worth it for the team to play Rivers over Brees because it’s most cost-efficient for them. In 2004, when Rivers first came on to the team, he signed a six year, $40.5 million contract. In 2006, Drew Brees signed a six year $60 million dollar deal. Maybe the Chargers would have been able to get a “home town discount” to resign Brees, but if Brees and the choice to get paid less to play for the team that drafted him, I highly doubt he would have taken it. Because Rivers was still yet unproven, the team was able to get their younger player for less money.
Now on to the statistics:
2009
Philip Rivers: 3rd in DYAR, 1st in DVOA
Drew Brees: 4th in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA
2008
Philip Rivers: 3rd in DYAR, 2nd in DVOA
Drew Brees: 1st in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA
2007
Philip Rivers: 16th in DYAR, 20th in DVOA
Drew Brees: 5th in DYAR, 12th in DVOA
2006
Philip Rivers: 6th in DYAR, 7th in DVOA
Drew Brees: 2nd in DYAR, 2nd in DVOA
*For a better understand of DVOA or DYAR, click here*
For the first two years after Brees left San Diego, Brees was the better QB- but that was to be expected. Rivers was young and he needed to develop. And four years later Rivers has developed. And he has developed into a better QB than Drew Brees has become. Yes, Brees has put up flashy numbers- more yards and TDs and whatnot. But Brees has also made more attempts. In fact, for the past two years, Rivers has led the league in YPA, but outside the top ten in passing attempts (in Brees’ record setting year last year- he led the league with 635 attempts!).
When trying to decide who the better QB is, you need to look at it in as much as a vacuum as possible. An ever better way of looking at it is- if Drew Brees were still in San Diego, would he have been better than Philip Rivers? The answer is “no” because when you subtract the extra attempts Brees has gotten from playing in New Orleans, his numbers would look inferior to Rivers’ numbers over the past two years (DVOA and DYAR helps equalize numbers as well).
Here's some more stats for you:
Rivers is 3rd among active QBs in TD% (Brees is 9th), 3rd among all QBs all time in passer rating (Brees is 9th), 3rd among active QBs in Yards per Pass Completion (Brees in 24th), and t-4th among active QBs in YPA (Brees is 9th). Drew Brees is t-4th among active QBs in completion % (Rivers is 11th).
Now you can always make the argument that maybe the Chargers would have won a Superbowl during the first two years since Brees left because the Chargers had an amazing defense, and a healthy and awesome LT. And maybe aliens would have come down to Earth and killed us all had Brees not left for New Orleans. While it's certainly plausible, you just never know and speculating won't do you any good. Maybe Brees would have done amazing in those playoff games or maybe he throws two pick sixes. During an individual game, anything is plausible.
So did the Chargers make the correct choice? Well they got the better, younger, and cheaper QB so yes, yes they did.
And while we're on the subject, if Rivers were on the Giants or Steelers, he also would have won a Superbowl so don't give me any shit that Manning or Roethlisberger is the better of those three- Rivers is by the far the better QB.
It’s obviously really hard to make a full, objective comparison because both QBs play in different systems with different receivers had different running games and whatnot. A ten yard throw on a out rout to Vincent Jackson might get caught but essentially the same exact throw to Marques Colston might get dropped- thus looking different on each QBs stats. However, both QBs are elite guys and the statistical comparisons can still be pretty accurate.
I think the best place to start looking to see if the Chargers made the right choice is to look at the contracts each QB received. If Brees is slightly better than Rivers statistically but is getting paid 5 million more per year, then it’s still worth it for the team to play Rivers over Brees because it’s most cost-efficient for them. In 2004, when Rivers first came on to the team, he signed a six year, $40.5 million contract. In 2006, Drew Brees signed a six year $60 million dollar deal. Maybe the Chargers would have been able to get a “home town discount” to resign Brees, but if Brees and the choice to get paid less to play for the team that drafted him, I highly doubt he would have taken it. Because Rivers was still yet unproven, the team was able to get their younger player for less money.
Now on to the statistics:
2009
Philip Rivers: 3rd in DYAR, 1st in DVOA
Drew Brees: 4th in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA
2008
Philip Rivers: 3rd in DYAR, 2nd in DVOA
Drew Brees: 1st in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA
2007
Philip Rivers: 16th in DYAR, 20th in DVOA
Drew Brees: 5th in DYAR, 12th in DVOA
2006
Philip Rivers: 6th in DYAR, 7th in DVOA
Drew Brees: 2nd in DYAR, 2nd in DVOA
*For a better understand of DVOA or DYAR, click here*
For the first two years after Brees left San Diego, Brees was the better QB- but that was to be expected. Rivers was young and he needed to develop. And four years later Rivers has developed. And he has developed into a better QB than Drew Brees has become. Yes, Brees has put up flashy numbers- more yards and TDs and whatnot. But Brees has also made more attempts. In fact, for the past two years, Rivers has led the league in YPA, but outside the top ten in passing attempts (in Brees’ record setting year last year- he led the league with 635 attempts!).
When trying to decide who the better QB is, you need to look at it in as much as a vacuum as possible. An ever better way of looking at it is- if Drew Brees were still in San Diego, would he have been better than Philip Rivers? The answer is “no” because when you subtract the extra attempts Brees has gotten from playing in New Orleans, his numbers would look inferior to Rivers’ numbers over the past two years (DVOA and DYAR helps equalize numbers as well).
Here's some more stats for you:
Rivers is 3rd among active QBs in TD% (Brees is 9th), 3rd among all QBs all time in passer rating (Brees is 9th), 3rd among active QBs in Yards per Pass Completion (Brees in 24th), and t-4th among active QBs in YPA (Brees is 9th). Drew Brees is t-4th among active QBs in completion % (Rivers is 11th).
Now you can always make the argument that maybe the Chargers would have won a Superbowl during the first two years since Brees left because the Chargers had an amazing defense, and a healthy and awesome LT. And maybe aliens would have come down to Earth and killed us all had Brees not left for New Orleans. While it's certainly plausible, you just never know and speculating won't do you any good. Maybe Brees would have done amazing in those playoff games or maybe he throws two pick sixes. During an individual game, anything is plausible.
So did the Chargers make the correct choice? Well they got the better, younger, and cheaper QB so yes, yes they did.
And while we're on the subject, if Rivers were on the Giants or Steelers, he also would have won a Superbowl so don't give me any shit that Manning or Roethlisberger is the better of those three- Rivers is by the far the better QB.
