As I hinted a few weeks ago in my Max Scherzer 2010 projection post, I am not a big fan of Clayton Kershaw. There is no doubt that he possesses a devastating Fastball/Change Up combo with a plus slider to boot. This leads to incredible strikeout totals (9.74 K/9 last season, 7th amongst starting pitchers). However, his lack of command also leads to an incredibly high high walk rate (4.79 BB/9 last season, compared to a 3.46 MLB average). Such numbers are quite reminisce of Rich Harden, who possesses a career 9.35 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9, and we all love Rich Harden (when healthy), right?
SexyRexy drilled upon the point of why I dislike Kershaw last month: his 4.1% HR/FB rate was the lowest amongst all major league pitchers to throw 100 or more innings. As I pointed out in my article explaining the important of xFIP and HR/FB rates earlier this year, "[t]he league, as a whole, averages a HR/FB rate in the 11% range, though most pitchers have HR/FB% which normalize to the 9-12% range (depending on where they play)." Thus, no matter where Kershaw plays, be it Dodger Stadium or Safe Co., there is really no way to reasonably expect him to maintain the 0.37 HR/9 rate that came with his sub-40% groundball rate last season. Put the sparkling 3.08 FIP out of your mind. What matters is the 3.90 xFIP.
Now a 3.90 xFIP is nothing terrible. It's actually quite decent. It's just not "ace material" or anything worth paying a top 100 pick for, especially when a comparably (if not better) guy like Max Scherzer is available much later. Of course, simply asserting Kershaw is overvalued is not my style. Let's project him.
Using Kershaw's 3.90 2009 xFIP as the baseline for his 2010 ERA, we need an innings projection for Kershaw. Innings projections are difficult to forecast and often arbitrary because predicting injury, playoff berths, managerial discretion, etc., is very difficult. CHONE says 151, Fangraphs users say 192, ZiPS says 176.2 and Bill James says 180. As with Max Scherzer, perhaps just so I can compare them a little easier, I am going to use 180 IP.
Over 180 IP, a 3.90 ERA would result in 78 runs allowed. Because Kershaw is not changing teams, there is no need to accord for park factors or a change in league. All that really needs to be factored in is the defensive posture of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers. In 2009, the team was cumulatively worth -0.1 Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR). Their defense neither cost nor gained them any runs. Because the team essentially only swapped out Orlando Hudson for Ronnie Belliard this offseason, the team's defense should not change too much next year. If you think the Dodgers, as a team, over or underperformed their defensive abilities last year, adjust these projections accordingly. However, I am simply going to swap out Orlando Hudson's 2009 FRAR of -3.3 with that of Ronnie Belliard's 2010 FRAR projection, -6.1. This gives the Dodgers a projected team FRAR of -2.8. Per 1442 innings of play, the average amount of defensive innings each team played last season, the Dodger's marginally below average defense would cost the team .002 runs per inning or 0.35 runs per 180 innings. Factor this into Kershaw's projected 78 runs allowed per 180 IP, and you get an estimated 3.92 ERA.
If we keep the strikeout rates constant, Kershaw would yield about 195 strikeouts. Solid numbers, but nothing spectacular. Kershaw also managed a 1.23 WHIP to go alone with his 4.79 BB/9 and .274 BABIP. If we assume a correction in Kershaw's 2010 BABIP towards the .300 MLB average, then we cannot assume another sub 1.30 WHIP season.
According to Mock Draft Central's ADP data, Kershaw (ADP of 92) is being drafted in the immediate vicinity of such pitchers as Tommy Hanson, Yovanni Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Nolasco. Each of these pitchers has both risk and tremendous upside, but it simply seems that Kershaw's downside and high walk totals trump all of these pitchers except Yovanni Gallardo. Personally, I'm taking Hanson, Hamels, Nolasco, Ubaldo, and Gallardo (in that order) before I even touch Kershaw. Even still, there are a handful of pitchers like John Lackey (120), Chad Billingsley (122), and Brett Anderson (152) that I would rather choose well before I am forced to settle with Kershaw. Clayton may be a stud in 2010, but the downside risk is too high to justify a top 100 pick in my opinion. Perhaps I am just too risk averse. Where Brandon Funston only sees "Lincecum-type upside with Kershaw," I see the Rich Harden a la 2009-like downside. That and his price tag. Just my two cents.
Showing posts with label Clayton Kershaw. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Clayton Kershaw. Show all posts
The Luckiest Fly Ball Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw
If you had Clayton Kershaw on your team, I'm sure you were pleasantly surprised. You probably didn't have to pay all that much or draft Kershaw very high to get a top 25 pitcher. But now that Kershaw has broke out, you're going to have to be competing for Kershaw with every member of your league as opposed to maybe just 2 or 3 in last years draft.
But let me point out some facts to you that I hope will affect your position and thinking of the young Dodger.
Last year, Kershaw was an extreme fly ball pitcher. 41.6% of Kershaw's hit pitches were fly balls. This made Kershaw the 15th worst in all of the MLB. However, not many of those fly balls went out for home runs. Kershaw had the best home run per fly ball percentage. Only 4.1% of Kershaw's fly balls went for home runs. Last year, only thee players had a HR/FB% under 5.0- the other two were Chris Carpenter and Zach Greinke.
So what does this all mean you ask? Well, first of all, it means Kershaw was really lucky last year that he didn't give up more home runs. On average, about 11.5% of all fly balls (from both a hitter that hits a lot of fly balls and pitchers that gives up a lot of fly balls) go for home runs. So the fact that Kershaw's hit fly balls was WAY under the average, means he got really lucky to have his under 3.00 ERA.
This also gives you an indicator of how Kershaw will perform next year. Sure, it's possible that Kershaw gets lucky again, but I wouldn't count on it. The better bet is that Kershaw's HR/FB will normalize and he'll give up more than 7 HRs. With Kershaw giving up more home runs, that means his ERA will spike as well. Even Gavin Floyd two years ago (who gave up 30 HRs but A LOT of them being single home runs. In fact, I remember a game where Floyd gave up four home run- all of them being solo homers) had a low three ERA. And comparing Kershaw to Floyd is generous. There's no guarantee that Kershaw's home runs will be solo- in fact- there's a good chance they won't be.
Now a fly ball pitcher could be acceptable if had an amazing outfield defense like Seattle last year. But Kershaw does not. Last year, the only Dodger outfielder that produced positive defense was Matt Kemp (3.2 UZR/150, 2.5 RF/9)- and just barely. Both both Manny (-15.4 UZR/150, 2.6 RF/9) and Andre Either (-17.7 UZR/150, 1.9 RF/9) are not good defenders by any stretch of the imagination.
The one saving grace is that Kershaw gets to play the vast majority his games in Dodger Stadium (ranked 25th last year in HR given up), PETCO (29th), and AT&T Park (19th). The average Chase Field (14th) isn't that bad either. The only concern is when Kershaw pitches at Coors (9th)- but that's minimal compared to everywhere else he pitches.
The parks Kershaw will mostly pitch in will absolutely help keep his HR totals low. However, Kershaw absolutely will not have an ERA under 3.00 next year and he absolutely will give up more HRs next year because of his extreme fly ball tendencies. Kershaw will still be good next year (he increased his K/9 from 8.36 in 2008 to 9.74 in '09)- and he still has the Dodgers line up so he's always good in line to get wins. But Kershaw's high propensity to leave guys on base (4.79 BB/9 which was a slight increase from '08) and high propensity to give up fly balls (which means more home runs) means Kershaw's WHIP and ERA will increase next year as well.
So just keep this in mind if you decide to draft Kershaw in your upcoming draft.
But let me point out some facts to you that I hope will affect your position and thinking of the young Dodger.
Last year, Kershaw was an extreme fly ball pitcher. 41.6% of Kershaw's hit pitches were fly balls. This made Kershaw the 15th worst in all of the MLB. However, not many of those fly balls went out for home runs. Kershaw had the best home run per fly ball percentage. Only 4.1% of Kershaw's fly balls went for home runs. Last year, only thee players had a HR/FB% under 5.0- the other two were Chris Carpenter and Zach Greinke.
So what does this all mean you ask? Well, first of all, it means Kershaw was really lucky last year that he didn't give up more home runs. On average, about 11.5% of all fly balls (from both a hitter that hits a lot of fly balls and pitchers that gives up a lot of fly balls) go for home runs. So the fact that Kershaw's hit fly balls was WAY under the average, means he got really lucky to have his under 3.00 ERA.
This also gives you an indicator of how Kershaw will perform next year. Sure, it's possible that Kershaw gets lucky again, but I wouldn't count on it. The better bet is that Kershaw's HR/FB will normalize and he'll give up more than 7 HRs. With Kershaw giving up more home runs, that means his ERA will spike as well. Even Gavin Floyd two years ago (who gave up 30 HRs but A LOT of them being single home runs. In fact, I remember a game where Floyd gave up four home run- all of them being solo homers) had a low three ERA. And comparing Kershaw to Floyd is generous. There's no guarantee that Kershaw's home runs will be solo- in fact- there's a good chance they won't be.
Now a fly ball pitcher could be acceptable if had an amazing outfield defense like Seattle last year. But Kershaw does not. Last year, the only Dodger outfielder that produced positive defense was Matt Kemp (3.2 UZR/150, 2.5 RF/9)- and just barely. Both both Manny (-15.4 UZR/150, 2.6 RF/9) and Andre Either (-17.7 UZR/150, 1.9 RF/9) are not good defenders by any stretch of the imagination.
The one saving grace is that Kershaw gets to play the vast majority his games in Dodger Stadium (ranked 25th last year in HR given up), PETCO (29th), and AT&T Park (19th). The average Chase Field (14th) isn't that bad either. The only concern is when Kershaw pitches at Coors (9th)- but that's minimal compared to everywhere else he pitches.
The parks Kershaw will mostly pitch in will absolutely help keep his HR totals low. However, Kershaw absolutely will not have an ERA under 3.00 next year and he absolutely will give up more HRs next year because of his extreme fly ball tendencies. Kershaw will still be good next year (he increased his K/9 from 8.36 in 2008 to 9.74 in '09)- and he still has the Dodgers line up so he's always good in line to get wins. But Kershaw's high propensity to leave guys on base (4.79 BB/9 which was a slight increase from '08) and high propensity to give up fly balls (which means more home runs) means Kershaw's WHIP and ERA will increase next year as well.
So just keep this in mind if you decide to draft Kershaw in your upcoming draft.
