Through my first analysis, I have told you that trading for Braylon Edwards was a waste. And all Jets fans who saw Edwards drop easy passes that fell in his lap get dropped came around to what I told them. But cheer up baby birds, I'm about to chew up some analysis and spit some knowledge in your mouth (too graphic?), you got Edwards part II.
Last year, Holmes collected 1248 yards on 79 receptions (138 targets) good for a 15.8 YPR (yards per reception). Holmes was 10th in DYAR (roughly measures total value) and 21st DVOA (roughly measures value per play). However, it's his 57% catch rate that worries me. Out of the top 15 players last year (according to FO DYAR), there are three receiver with a catch rate under 61% (besides Holmes, A. Johnson and C. Ochocinco) and Holmes (along with Ochocinco) rank last out of the top 15 players in catch rate. 32 of the top 45 players had a better catch rate than Holmes. In fact, Holmes has a career 55% catch rate.
Despite Holmes low catch rate however, he does do pretty darn good things when he gets the ball. He was tied for second in the league last year for plays 20+, had no fumbles, 5th in first downs and still was at minimum a top 15 wide out (despite his slight inefficiencies). And at only 27 years old and only four years in the league, he is very very good.
And he is absolutely no doubt better than Jerricho Cotchery and David Clowney.
Because Santonio Holomes is better than probably any current Jets receiver, he will make young Mark Sanchez better. So let's take a look at Big Ben and the Sanchize's numbers to see how Holmes will actually produce in the Meadowlands
Over the past three years, 24.4% of Big Ben's passes went towards Holmes and he has caught 12.7% of Big Ben's total passes while Holmes was in Pittsburgh. While those numbers seem low, that's not THAT bad considering how many passes any QB throws that don't get caught and how many players any QB has to distribute the ball to.
However, these low stats do become important because as little attempts as Big Ben has, the Sanchize will have even less. Big Ben has averaged 462 attempts over the past two years and Sanchez had 364 attempts in 15 games. Now while Sanchez will most likely get more attempts and get better- the number of passes he'll throw to Holmes will decrease thus decreasing the overall value of Holmes- at least for the 2010 season.
Last year, about 15.9% of Sanchez' passes went to his RBs, 21.4% went to Braylon Edwards, 26.6% went to Jerricho Cotchery, 22.3% went to Dustin Keller, and about 13.8% went to other receivers.
So based off of Sanchez' past numbers, percentages, improvement, and Holmes' catch rate, let's see what we can predict Holmes, at least for 2010.
If we generously say Sanchez gets more attempts and gets better accuracy (which he showed at the end of the 2009 season), let's generously say Sanchez gets 400 attempts (up from his 364 in 15 games in 2009). Let's say Edwards gets about 22% of Sanchez' passes and say Holmes (based upon Holmes' talent and what he did in Pittsburgh) gets 25% of Sanchez' throws. Thats means Holmes should get about 100 passes thrown his way.
So if we include Holmes' career catch rate, that means Holmes should get only about 55 catches- way below his 2009 mark, but right along his '06-'08 rate. Add his career 16.3 YPR rate, that means Holmes should get only around 900 yards- with maybe about 5 TDs (falls along with his career average and a crappier QB). But when you include the four game suspension- I'll say he gets about 675 yards with 4 TDs.
Now Holmes is still young and took a huge step forward so I can easily foresee my prediction that Holmes will regress will not come true. But I think a lot of Holmes' value came from Big Ben's career year and with a young and improving QB at the helm throwing to two drop heavy receivers does not bode well for the team. But hey, it was only a 5th round draft pick and the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets have still improved.
For an analysis on the Brandon Marshall trade, click here
