Tom Tango, courtesy of Brian Cartwright's tedious annual projection cataloging, just analyzed the various popular projections systems out there for accuracy in various capacities (best at forecasting overall, best at forecasting rookies, etc.). The results are quite interesting. CHONE, my forecaster of choice over the past few seasons, faired the best overall, while Oliver came in a close second, while also being the best system for forecasting rookie hitters. PECOTA was the weakest overall, thanks to its horrible 2009 showing, but was on par with ZiPS otherwise (yet another great reason not to pay for PECOTA -- ZiPS is free).
With CHONE defunct now (Sean Smith, the creator, works for a major league front office these days), Oliver would seem to reign supreme as the best available forecaster on the market. Though all of these systems are generally interchangeable overall, Oliver does the best at forecasting young players based on minor league production, which gives it a clear advantage over the rest of the systems. As Tango notes, players with higher sample sizes of major league production tend to have the most similar projections between systems.
You can purchase access to Oliver via THT Forecasts for $14.95 for the entire 2011 season. I personally use Oliver and can attest to its awesomeness, but if you do not believe me, just click the link to Tom Tango's blog (above) and read about its accuracy for yourself.
Showing posts with label Sports Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sports Predictions. Show all posts
Worthless 2010 Baseball Predictions
It has been discussed and believed here at GOI that predictions are worthless. They are not to be trusted, anyone can make them with little to no justification, and they will probably be wrong. With that being said, they sure are fun to read and write and you can brag about 1% of the time when you're right
AL MVP
Winner: Alex Rodriguez (NYY). The guy hit 30 HR and 100 RBIs after missing the first couple months or so last year. The Yankees lineup is amazing as always and A-Rod is amazing so he'll put up the HR and RBI numbers needed to please baseball writers and of course put up the OBP and OPS.
Runner-Up: Kevin Youkilis (BOS). He's been in the top four in OPS the past two years and he plays for the Red Sox. This means he'll be credited for the Sox success and because he's good, he'll get votes.
Dark Horse: Carlos Quentin (CWS). He would have won the 2008 AL MVP had he not gotten injured and hit 29 HR in 399 ABs last year. He'll be awesome if healthy and if healthy put up great number. But that's a huge, huge, huge "if".
NL MVP
Winner: Hanley Rameriz (FLA). To be honest I don't know why I think Hanley over Pujols. But with the recent MVPs of Rollins and Pedroia, baseball writers are still not afraid to vote in power AND speed guys and I think Hanley needs his due. Plus, I think the Marlins will be more in the race this year and thus the general public will be more aware of the Marlins which will help Hanley's stock.
Runner-Up: Albert Pujols (STL). Do I really need a justification? Dude'll probably win it three years in a row though.
Dark Horse: Adrian Gonzalez (SD). A Gon has increased his walks, home runs, and ISO the past four years. I think he gets traded which will only boost his already great numbers. But he's at a huge disadvantage because he's probably considered the 4th best first baseman in the NL (behind Pujols, Fielder, and Howard), he plays in a small market team if he doesn't get trades, and if he does get traded- he'll probably go to an AL team.
AL Cy Young
Winner: Felix Hernandez (SEA). The vast majority of the best (rather the guys with the best "numbers") now play in the NL so it's not like Hernandez has much competition, but he's young, developed, plays most of his games in pitcher friendly parks (SAFECO and Oakland Colosseum), with a great defense. And who's his competition? Grienke? Sabathia? Please.
Runner-Up: Jon Lester (BOS). OK, well Lester will be King Felix's biggest competitor this year. Lester will be a top five pitcher and has the Red Sox love that baseball writers fawn over.
Dark Horse: Gavin Floyd (CWS). I truly believe the White Sox will be in the AL Central race all year (and with Nathan going out this only helps the Sox's chances in the weakest division in baseball) and I also believe that Floyd will be the best pitcher on the team which is why I think Floyd will have a good Cy Young candidate year.
NL Cy Young
Winner: Tim Lincecum (SFG). Like I really need a justification for this one as well. But in case you've been living under a rock the past two years, he's decreased his ERA, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, FB%, and BB/9 the past three years. He by far was the best pitcher in the NL last year and he's only 25 right now.
Runner-Up: Josh Johnson (FLA). For absolutely no logical reason I don't like Roy Halladay (even though he probably will have more wins and a better ERA and WHIP because he's moving to the NL), I don't think Chris Carpenter will stay healthy, I don't think Adam Wainwright will be as good as he was last year, Dan Haren will "fall off" in the second half which will hurt his Cy Young chances, I don't think Johan Santana will stay healthy or that the Mets will be any good this year, and Yovani Gallardo is not quite there yet. So by default I give the runner up to Johnson. Plus, Johnson has increased his K/9 the past three years, decreased his FIP, xFIP, ERA, and WHIP. Plus, I think the Marlins will at least be in the race essentially all year which will help Johnson's chances like it will Hanley's.
Dark Horse: Tommy Hanson (ATL). The guy is awesome and will have a long great career (assuming health of course). But it's really hard to win a Cy Young in your first full year being a starter.
Note, again, a lot of these predictions are just based upon my own personal predictions and not really based on fact. Plus, there will always be a guy like Grienke last year or Pedroia/Hamilton/Quentin from two years ago that will come out of nowhere, have a great season and be in the running for an MVP or Cy Young that rarely anyone considered at the beginning of the season.
AL MVP
Winner: Alex Rodriguez (NYY). The guy hit 30 HR and 100 RBIs after missing the first couple months or so last year. The Yankees lineup is amazing as always and A-Rod is amazing so he'll put up the HR and RBI numbers needed to please baseball writers and of course put up the OBP and OPS.
Runner-Up: Kevin Youkilis (BOS). He's been in the top four in OPS the past two years and he plays for the Red Sox. This means he'll be credited for the Sox success and because he's good, he'll get votes.
Dark Horse: Carlos Quentin (CWS). He would have won the 2008 AL MVP had he not gotten injured and hit 29 HR in 399 ABs last year. He'll be awesome if healthy and if healthy put up great number. But that's a huge, huge, huge "if".
NL MVP
Winner: Hanley Rameriz (FLA). To be honest I don't know why I think Hanley over Pujols. But with the recent MVPs of Rollins and Pedroia, baseball writers are still not afraid to vote in power AND speed guys and I think Hanley needs his due. Plus, I think the Marlins will be more in the race this year and thus the general public will be more aware of the Marlins which will help Hanley's stock.
Runner-Up: Albert Pujols (STL). Do I really need a justification? Dude'll probably win it three years in a row though.
Dark Horse: Adrian Gonzalez (SD). A Gon has increased his walks, home runs, and ISO the past four years. I think he gets traded which will only boost his already great numbers. But he's at a huge disadvantage because he's probably considered the 4th best first baseman in the NL (behind Pujols, Fielder, and Howard), he plays in a small market team if he doesn't get trades, and if he does get traded- he'll probably go to an AL team.
AL Cy Young
Winner: Felix Hernandez (SEA). The vast majority of the best (rather the guys with the best "numbers") now play in the NL so it's not like Hernandez has much competition, but he's young, developed, plays most of his games in pitcher friendly parks (SAFECO and Oakland Colosseum), with a great defense. And who's his competition? Grienke? Sabathia? Please.
Runner-Up: Jon Lester (BOS). OK, well Lester will be King Felix's biggest competitor this year. Lester will be a top five pitcher and has the Red Sox love that baseball writers fawn over.
Dark Horse: Gavin Floyd (CWS). I truly believe the White Sox will be in the AL Central race all year (and with Nathan going out this only helps the Sox's chances in the weakest division in baseball) and I also believe that Floyd will be the best pitcher on the team which is why I think Floyd will have a good Cy Young candidate year.
NL Cy Young
Winner: Tim Lincecum (SFG). Like I really need a justification for this one as well. But in case you've been living under a rock the past two years, he's decreased his ERA, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, FB%, and BB/9 the past three years. He by far was the best pitcher in the NL last year and he's only 25 right now.
Runner-Up: Josh Johnson (FLA). For absolutely no logical reason I don't like Roy Halladay (even though he probably will have more wins and a better ERA and WHIP because he's moving to the NL), I don't think Chris Carpenter will stay healthy, I don't think Adam Wainwright will be as good as he was last year, Dan Haren will "fall off" in the second half which will hurt his Cy Young chances, I don't think Johan Santana will stay healthy or that the Mets will be any good this year, and Yovani Gallardo is not quite there yet. So by default I give the runner up to Johnson. Plus, Johnson has increased his K/9 the past three years, decreased his FIP, xFIP, ERA, and WHIP. Plus, I think the Marlins will at least be in the race essentially all year which will help Johnson's chances like it will Hanley's.
Dark Horse: Tommy Hanson (ATL). The guy is awesome and will have a long great career (assuming health of course). But it's really hard to win a Cy Young in your first full year being a starter.
Note, again, a lot of these predictions are just based upon my own personal predictions and not really based on fact. Plus, there will always be a guy like Grienke last year or Pedroia/Hamilton/Quentin from two years ago that will come out of nowhere, have a great season and be in the running for an MVP or Cy Young that rarely anyone considered at the beginning of the season.
The Greatest NFC Playoff Run EVER!
How fortuitous that right after I do a brief NFC North post when I was bored, that I come across an SI article predicting every single division, how the playoffs will shake out, and the scores of those games. I wrote a post long long ago back in the day of GOI's origins about just how dumb magazines making predictions are, especially considering they are going to, for a fact, not even be close. Injuries will occur and teams we thought would finish in the cellar will rise to win their division and we'll all throw away all the predictions we had in the beginning of the year (except for the stupid "analysts" who will pick a team only because "they picked them at pre-season" instead of, you know, doing actual analysis and watch games and base teams off of that). And even though I have made meaningless NFL predictions, I fully admit I will be wrong.
But back to the SI article. They say the Bears will go 12-4, win their division, and get the #2 overall seed in the NFC. But the kicker, is that the Viking and Packers will get the 5th and 6th wild card spots, respectively.
This will make for the best NFC playoff run ever.
You see, for the Viking and Packers both win their first weeks while the Bears have a bye. Then the Bears will face the Vikings and beat them. THEN, in the NFC Championship game, the Bears will face the Packers, and of course punch their chesseheads in.
ANDwhileUNFORTUNATELYtheBEARSwillLOSEinTHEsuperbowlTOtheDOMINANTnewenglandPATRIOTS, according to Sports Illustrated, the Bears will have a monster NFC playoff run.
I hope SI is right because that would be AMAZING, but now I just read this article and laugh.
But back to the SI article. They say the Bears will go 12-4, win their division, and get the #2 overall seed in the NFC. But the kicker, is that the Viking and Packers will get the 5th and 6th wild card spots, respectively.
This will make for the best NFC playoff run ever.
You see, for the Viking and Packers both win their first weeks while the Bears have a bye. Then the Bears will face the Vikings and beat them. THEN, in the NFC Championship game, the Bears will face the Packers, and of course punch their chesseheads in.
ANDwhileUNFORTUNATELYtheBEARSwillLOSEinTHEsuperbowlTOtheDOMINANTnewenglandPATRIOTS, according to Sports Illustrated, the Bears will have a monster NFC playoff run.
I hope SI is right because that would be AMAZING, but now I just read this article and laugh.
Meaningless NFL Predictions
You can listen to The Bright One and myself say our full NFL predictions above. But since no one does that anyway, I'll take the off chance someone types in "NFL Predictions" into Google and will read this post. Now granted actual prediction means nothing, I WILL be wrong on many times, and injuries and surprises will happen everyday affecting these outcomes. Nevertheless, here is how I predict the divisions to end up.
AFC East
1) New England Patriots
2) New York Jets
3) Miami Dolphins
4) Buffalo Bills
AFC North
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
2) Baltimore Ravens
3) Cincinnati Bengals
4) Cleveland Browns
AFC South
1) Indianapolis Colts
2) Tennessee Titans
3) Houston Texans
4) Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC West
1) San Diego Chargers
2) Kansas City Chiefs
3) Denver Broncos
4) Oakland Raiders
NFC East
1) Philadelphia Eagles
2) New York Giants
3) Dallas Cowboys
4) Washington Redskins
NFC South
1) Atlanta Falcons
2) Carolina Panthers
3) New Orleans Saints
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West
1) San Fransisco 49ers
2) Seattle Seahawks
3) Arizona Cardinals
4) St. Louis Rams
NFC North
1) Green Bay Packers
2) Minnesota Vikings
3) Chicago Bears
4) Detroit Lions
For shits and giggles I say the AFC Wild Card teams are the New York Jets and the Tennessee Titans and the NFC Wild Card teams are the Seattle Seahawks and the New York Giants
And I know on the podcast I had the Bears making it to the Wild Card game but I think the division is SOOOO good this year, that I just can't see it. The Packers went 13-3 just two years ago and would have won the division if not for multiple multiple injuries and the Vikings probably have the best D-line and a great O-line that it's just so hard for me to leave them out of the playoffs. Plus they did win the division last year as well. I think the Bears will be much more competitive this year than they have been, the games will be a lot more fun to watch and I I'll feel happy about this team. I also think the Bears will win at least nine games again but I can see the Packers and Viks splitting games with us and them winning at least 10. This division will be a shit ton better than in years past, but the Bears cynic in me tells me to leave the Bears out of the running.
I guess we can cancel the baseball season now
Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus has come out with his win-loss predictions for the upcoming season. Considering he was dead on the money in predicting electoral college votes during the national election, I think we can simply bypass the regular season and jump straight into the division series. Looks like it will be the Braves sweeping the Cubs this year
American League, ranked by projected 2009 record
| East | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||
| Boston Red Sox | 98 | 64 | 864 | 684 | .269 | .347 | .433 | ||||
| New York Yankees | 97 | 65 | 838 | 674 | .267 | .341 | .424 | ||||
| Tampa Bay Rays | 92 | 70 | 838 | 715 | .256 | .338 | .421 | ||||
| Toronto Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 730 | 692 | .254 | .319 | .403 | ||||
| Baltimore Orioles | 76 | 86 | 858 | 898 | .269 | .338 | .435 | ||||
| Central | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||
| Cleveland Indians | 84 | 78 | 824 | 819 | .260 | .337 | .423 | ||||
| Minnesota Twins | 79 | 83 | 769 | 802 | .266 | .329 | .397 | ||||
| Detroit Tigers | 78 | 84 | 796 | 844 | .259 | .329 | .425 | ||||
| Kansas City Royals | 75 | 87 | 747 | 813 | .263 | .323 | .407 | ||||
| Chicago White Sox | 74 | 88 | 763 | 839 | .250 | .319 | .419 | ||||
| West | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||
| Oakland Athletics | 82 | 80 | 799 | 798 | .251 | .335 | .410 | ||||
| Los Angeles Angels | 79 | 83 | 738 | 758 | .258 | .319 | .403 | ||||
| Texas Rangers | 73 | 89 | 812 | 912 | .263 | .328 | .432 | ||||
| Seattle Mariners | 70 | 92 | 725 | 835 | .260 | .318 | .403 |
National League, ranked by projected 2009 record
| East | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| New York Mets | 93 | 69 | 833 | 713 | .264 | .339 | .417 | ||||||
| Atlanta Braves | 88 | 74 | 818 | 742 | .271 | .342 | .416 | ||||||
| Philadelphia Phillies | 88 | 74 | 837 | 756 | .264 | .337 | .431 | ||||||
| Washington Nationals | 77 | 85 | 780 | 808 | .261 | .335 | .410 | ||||||
| Florida Marlins | 74 | 88 | 767 | 819 | .253 | .325 | .423 | ||||||
| Central | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| Chicago Cubs | 95 | 67 | 865 | 751 | .271 | .346 | .433 | ||||||
| Milwaukee Brewers | 83 | 79 | 822 | 808 | .260 | .334 | .434 | ||||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 80 | 82 | 776 | 784 | .257 | .330 | .420 | ||||||
| Cincinnati Reds | 79 | 83 | 779 | 798 | .263 | .329 | .416 | ||||||
| Houston Astros | 66 | 96 | 708 | 851 | .256 | .318 | .404 | ||||||
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 65 | 97 | 719 | 887 | .255 | .321 | .406 | ||||||
| West | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 90 | 72 | 816 | 733 | .261 | .334 | .432 | ||||||
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 84 | 78 | 760 | 741 | .265 | .331 | .397 | ||||||
| San Francisco Giants | 79 | 83 | 703 | 718 | .262 | .319 | .399 | ||||||
| Colorado Rockies | 78 | 84 | 827 | 862 | .266 | .340 | .431 | ||||||
| San Diego Padres | 74 | 88 | 706 | 763 | .251 | .324 | .399 |
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.
The second best sports prediction ever
I know that I've quoted this January 2006 Heckler interview with Ryan Dempster at least a hundred times before, but I have yet to quote what I consider the second funniest sports prediction ever made (the first being John Kruk predicting Randy Johnson to win 30 games in 2005).
"The Heckler: A lot of people are pretty down on Dusty. What do you think about that?He sure showed us.
Ryan Dempster: I think he's one of the best guys to have ever managed baseball. I think the reason they are [down on him] is because, number one, he put the blame on himself. I can't honestly remember one time that Dusty has sat there and blamed a player. He always takes the blame himself. He gives us all the positive feedback we can get. Corey [Patterson] had a really tough year and Dusty, all the way down to the end, stood behind him. He sticks behind his players. It hurts to lose for you and your fans, but it also hurts to lose because your manager is such a great guy.
Everyone's going to understand what a great manager he is after this year."
