Sample Size! Sample Size! Sample Size!: Taking Advantage Of Bad Luck And Panic

Only 2 weeks into the season, there is no real reason to worry about your fantasy line (yet). Most hitters have a measly 50 PA to their names and the majority of pitchers have tossed less than 20 frames. Yet, fantasy owners tend to panic early. Owners tend to bail on riskier and less proven prospects quickly, which gives you, the rational owner, the perfect opportunity to swoop in and take advantage of fantasy market inefficiencies. Baseball is a 162 game season and if you play Roto, it doesn't matter how you accumulate those numbers. Whether it be sooner or later, guys you trust to do something get it done (barring season-long bad luck), at least in terms of rate. For example, we all know that Mark Teixeira is going to hit .290+ with 30+ HR and 100+ R/RBI to boot this season, but for his career, he is a .239 hitter in April and a slow-to-start guy out of the gates. Thus, to panic mid-April because Teixeira is off to a slow start is pointless; start worrying if he's slumping come June or July.

That said, here are four big name pitchers you might be able to get on the cheap this week:

1. Jon Lester -- Entering this season, I was big on Jon Lester. So far, the real life and fantasy results have been lackluster (8.49 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 0 Ws). His strikeout rate is down almost 2.5 K per nine compared to last season (7.8) and his walk rate is way up at 5.06 per nine. However, there are reasons for optimism. So far this season, Lester has faced New York, Tampa Bay and Minnesota. These are strong clubs who tend to walk a lot, strikeout very little and score a lot of runs. Lester is only three starts into the season, but his GB% is right in line with (and actually up a full 5% compared to) his 2008 and 2009 numbers and his LOB% is a very low 63%. Given Lester's maturity as a pitcher since battling his way back from cancer, it is way too early to give up on a guy with a quality four-pitch mix. Lester's xFIP going into the Rays game today stood at 4.30. Chalk up the horrendous ERA to mostly bad luck; if he can post a 4.30 xFIP against some of the AL's top club, just wait until he starts facing less formidable match ups.

2. Carlos Zambrano -- Big Z hasn't been an "ace" in real life or fantasy since 2007. His strikeouts over the last few seasons have been down and ERA/WHIP have been way up. However, just three starts into 2010, Z's K's have reemerged (11.48 K/9) and his HR/FB rate is sitting at an unsustainably high 28.6%. Despite the uptick in walks, Z's ERA (9.45) is substantially higher than his xFIP (3.70). With a WHIP north of 2.00 at the moment, Z may be a prime buy low guy for a good source of K's and a decent ERA.

3. Justin Verlander -- A quick glance at Verlander's career split stats by month reveals that like Tex, Verlander is a slow starter out of the gates (heck, just look at last year). 2008 is likely still fresh on everyone's mind and Verlander's K/9 is going to come back to earth this season. Result: worrisome owners. Nonetheless, Verlander should still provide much fantasy value in 2010. He won't strike out 10 per nine again this year, but 8 or more is certainly reasonable. Verlander's stingy walk rate and well above average F-Strike% should keep his WHIP low. While he probably won't come cheap, Verlander is likely obtainable from the right owner and definitely worth the upgrade it will cost to acquire his services.

4. Javier Vazquez -- 2004 second half wounds reopened, Vazquez has burned fantasy owners early. He's got 2 HR to only 9 Ks in 11 IP, a 9.82 ERA and a ghastly 4.02 BB/9 rate. Vazquez, however, has never posted a full season BB/9 rate above 3.55 and his walk rate hasn't even been 3 since the beginning of the millennium. Right now, Vazquez's xFIP sits at 4.73. This with the 4.03 BB.9 rate and 7.35 K/9 rate. If you expect the K's to go up (he was an 8+ K/9 guy in Chicago from 2006-2008) and the walks to go down, expect that ERA to deflate quickly and substantially. Vazquez is another guy who won't come cheap, but is worth the cost of acquiring.