Nelson Cruz Is Very, Very Good At Baseball

Heading into 2009, Nelson Cruz, then-soon-to-be 29, was a Quad-A player fresh off a 133 PA hot steak. In contrast to his power-hitting, 23 year old teammate Chris Davis (2009 Yahoo ranking of 75), Nelson Cruz did not get much love entering the 2009 season (2009 Yahoo ranking of 133). As history would have it, Cruz went on to post a monstrous .260/.332/.524 (.856 OPS) triple slash line with 33 HR and 20 SB to boot. Yahoo ranked him as the 85th overall player in 2009 and as the 63rd overall player heading in to 2010. Slated to bat in the 5-6 hole this season, Cruz seemed poised for a strong 3-4 category showing.

The scary thing is, Cruz is not a 3/4 category stud. He's a bonafide all-around super star. That .260 BA? It came with an unlucky .278 BABIP (.319 xBABIP). According to my preseason 2010 hitter projections based on THT's xBABIP formula, Nelson Cruz was robbed of approximately 13 hits in 2009 and he should have posted a luck-neutral .288/.357/.552 (.909 OPS) triple slash line if we pessimistically assume that all additional hits would have only been singles.

Needless to say, I was big on Nelson Cruz heading into this fantasy season (and my lack of postings about him this past off season only emphasizes how much I was trying to keep that love under wraps).

Currently, Nelson Cruz has a ridiculous 7 HR and .342 BA through his first 11 games of the season. I was thinking of selling him high the other day when something popped out at me: his .286 BABIP.

The point? I don't think Nelson Cruz is a sell high guy. He won't hit .300+ this season (expect the BABIP to fall as less of his hits leave the yard and are actually put into play), but a .290 BA is not unrealistic. I pegged him for a .282 average entering the season, but would not be shocked if he outperformed my prediction. Cruz only played 128 games last year and managed 33 bombs. Over 150 games, 40+ is entirely plausible. Oh, and did I mention that he also steals bases, a la Mark Reynolds? Package this together with a prime-spot in the heart of the Rangers line up and you've got yourself a bonafide top 5 OF for 2010.

Congrats on owning him if you do; I wouldn't part ways if I were you.