EDITOR'S NOTE: This posts uses advanced statistics. For an explanation of DYAR and DVOA, click here. For an explanation of WPA, click here. For an explanation of EPA, click here.
During my box score tonight's, I keep claiming that Matt Cassel is the best former USC quarterback currently playing in the NFL. Over the past decade, Pete Carrol has produced many first round quarterbacks and top tiered, highly rated talent. Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, and Mark Sanchez all led USC to great years and were all taken within the first 10 picks of their respected drafts. But despite all this, the best QB was one that didn't even play a snap in college: Matt Cassel.
Now some of the reason Cassel is the best USC QB is by default. Carson Palmer looked amazing early in his career and looked like he was fully worth the high draft pick. But after destroying his knee in a playoff game and taking a year off to recover, he just doesn't look like the same quarterback. And I will still defend Matt Leinart but I'm sad to say it looks like his development has been too stunted at this point for him to succeed. The only real chance Leinart ever got was in his rookie year and I will never judge how good a QB truly is in his rookie year- despite the flashed of greatness we have seen from Leinart.
But Mark Sanchez still has a shot. I saw many of his games early and he looked good. He looked like he was making great decisions and making many accurate passes, but his receivers have probably the worst hands in the league. Sure he makes a lot of short passes, well guess what, not everybody can be Peyton Manning. Plus, the few long bombs I've seen him throw (especially to Braylon Edwards) he's looked pretty darn good doing it.
I said I won't fully judge a QB based solely on his rookie season and I certainly will take the fact that Sanchez doesn't even have two full years under his belt. But what that being said, this is a debate on who's the best USC quarterback RIGHT NOW.
We'll start off with the basic statistics. In five less games from 2010 to 2009, Mark Sanchez has thrown 3 more TD passes (12 to 15) and 14 less interceptions (20 to 7). He's increased his TD% by 136% and decreased his INT% by a whopping 262%. He currently holds a 2.14 TD/INT ratio- and anything over 2/1 is commendable and respectable. Cassel's biggest problem, like Sanchez, last year was interception. He threw 16 touchdown, but just as many interceptions. In five less games Cassel has thrown two more touchdowns (16 to 18) and 12 less interceptions (16 to 4) from 2009 to 2010. Cassel currently is fourth in the league in INT% (considering he only has FOUR interceptions on the year) and has a 4.5 TD/INT ratio- more than double that of Sanchez.
Somewhat frustrating is Sanchez's completion percentage. You always like to see a QB improve as he plays more games and a critical part of a QB's game to develop is his completion percentage. While it did go up slightly (53.8 to 55.1), it's still not close to being ideal (at least 59-60%). Versus Cassel who also had a mediocre comp% last year (55%) and raise it up to where it should be this year (59%).
My initial thought for this was because Sanchez has some pretty bad receivers from a catch rate perspective. Edwards has a 51% and Holmes has a 54% of the year. But Dwayne Bowe also has a 54% catch rate. Jamaal Charles has a 71%, LT has a 68%, and Thomas Jones has a 56%. All pretty much the same across the main receivers and backs which tells me the completion percentage of the quarterbacks is mostly the result of the quarterbacks and not the receivers.
Currently, Cassel has more touchdowns, less interceptions, and a better: completion percentage, passer rating, and yards per attempt than Sanchez with essentially the same sack percentage. Although Sanchez does have more yards. And more attempts.
Now onto the advanced stuff! We're getting kinky now. Matt Cassel is 13th in DYAR (essentially total value) and 14th in DVOA (essentially value per play). Sanchez is 18th in DYAR and 25th in DVOA. I think you can make your own conclusions about what this means. Where Sanchez does beat Cassel is in clutchiness. Sanchez has a 2.32 WPA and a 31.2 EPA versus Cassel's .75 WPA and 59.3 EPA.
Lastly, its helpful to look at offensive lines. Drastic differences in offensive line play can greatly affect a QB's play. You can chalk up a lot of bad stats to poor offensive line play. It's hard to throw the ball effectively when you have a guy in your face constantly. But luckily for us, Kansas City has the 9th ranked passing offensive line and the Jets have the 10th this year. Even more reason to think these players' numbers are the result of their true talent right now and not some other, outlier factors.
So who is currently the best USC QB playing the game? Matt Cassel. You can see this cat Cassel is a bad mother- shut your mouth! But I'm talking about Matt!
Showing posts with label USC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USC. Show all posts
Lane Kiffin Did Nothing Wrong
With the recent departure of Pete Carrol from USC to coach for the Seattle Seahawks, USC went ahead and tried to hire a great coach who can recruit top tier athletes and knows his X's and O's. But Nick Saban liked the job he had so they hired Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin instead. Kiffin is a very outspoken and charismatic guy (also "charisma" in NFL coaching terms means you're less monotone and boring than Lovie Smith and Bill Belichick) but also has comes with a bit of baggage. He had a tumultuous short career as a head coach under Al Davis (but that's in the contract of any head coach who plays under Davis, so that's understandable) and a rocky career at Tennessee leading them to an average record and claims of breaking NCAA rules.
But he planned to start things different at USC. At his press conference yesterday, he said he wanted to do things "the right way". This was an obvious reference to his head coaching days at Tennessee and Oakland. But of course, right after that, a reporter "informed" Kiffin that Kiffin's head recruiter, Ed Orgeron, had contacted all new Tennessee recruits not to go to class because if they did, according to NCAA rules, they would be committed to Tennessee and would not be eligible for USC if they so desired to go there. This seemed contradictory to what Kiffin said at his press conference when he told reporters that he would not contact recruits, but if recruits contacted him, he would gladly and honestly answer all of there questions. Sure, this was a pretty dumb thing to say to begin with, but it's not wrong.
First of all, it is not against NCAA rules to do what Kiffin and Orgeron did. Kiffin himself could have called all of his top tier recruits while he was on the plane from Knoxville to SoCal to tell them not to go to class. But what I think people do have a problem with is that Kiffin has a history of being slimy and scuzzy and then he says he won't do something while his staff goes around and does do the very thing Kiffin said he wouldn't. While if you technically dissect what Kiffin said, he said he personally wouldn't contact players and he didn't, Ed Orgeron did. But I think it's clear when he says "I won't contacts players" he means him and his new staff. So yes, his words were still pretty dumb and he should have just said "I'm happy to be here, this is my dream job" and just be done with it. But I'm not going to berate and chastise the man for saying one pretty dumb statement.
Next, the reality of the situation is that college recruits go to schools because of the program and because of the head coach, not because of the actual school they're attending. You think Arrelious Benn wanted to play in Champaign, Illinois? You think Lawrence, Kansas and it's University are all that great? You think Michael Crabtree went to Texas Tech for the education and the lovely sights of Lovett? No, these athletes come to these schools because of the head coaches and the programs. I've heard Illini football players tell me that Ron Zook is the coolest whiteboy they've ever met and that factored into their decision to come to Illinois. Kiffin's top tier recruits did not come to Tennessee because of the University, they came because of Lane Kiffin. That's why when John Calipari went from Memphis to Kentucky this year, John Wall didn't say, "Shoot, now I'm at Kentucky without the man that recruited me." No, he hoped in the next flight to Kentucky with Calipari (probably).
And think about these players. I'm sure the vast majority of high schoolers getting recruited would have much preferred to go play at USC where they'll at least play in a bowl game, as opposed to Tennessee. I'm sure these kids are thrilled to be playing at a school that has a better football outlook than Tennessee, a better education than Tennessee, and play in better whether than at Tennessee. And if the kids truly did want to play in Knoxville, nothing's stopping them. Orgeron didn't force these kids to not go to class. He simple told them that if they did, they're absolutely committed to Tennessee. Whereas if they didn't, they still would be eligible to play at either school.
And not only is USC a better gig for the players, it's a better gig for Kiffin as well. And this USC job became open much later than most other jobs because of the lengthier season of the NFL and USC's head coach took a job that may have been inconvenient for the college ranks, but was plenty convenient for the pro ranks. Thus, USC had to scramble to find a new head coach. And if I'm Lane Kiffin, and I'm offered one of the premier jobs in the FBS, why would I not take it? Kiffin owes more loyalty to USC than he ever owes or would owe to Tennessee. Players transfer all the time and nobody cares, but when a coach does it, it's blasphemy. Brian Kelly (although he took a lot of shit for this) went from the nothing school of Cincinnati to another top tiered job- Notre Dame. (Although Kelly took his job before his team went to play in a BCS bowl game which THERE is the dick move). But Kiffin didn't screw over his team. I'm sure the school is upset that it's top talent is going to USC and not Tennessee, but Kiffin still gives the school plenty of time to recruit. And it's not Kiffin's fault that "his dream job" was open so late. Think about this. If the CFO of Apple gets offered the CEO/President position of say Microsoft and he instantly takes it, is he a jerk for taking a bigger and better job? No. So why are football head coaches treated any differently?
Point is, on the surface it may appear that Kiffin is a jerk. But ask yourself why you feel that way. Kiffin did what any rational person would do. Hell, if you were in Kiffin's shoes, you would do the exact same thing. While maybe he shouldn't have said anything about bringing ethics and doing things right at USC, his actions still tell me and should tell you, that he did nothing wrong.
But he planned to start things different at USC. At his press conference yesterday, he said he wanted to do things "the right way". This was an obvious reference to his head coaching days at Tennessee and Oakland. But of course, right after that, a reporter "informed" Kiffin that Kiffin's head recruiter, Ed Orgeron, had contacted all new Tennessee recruits not to go to class because if they did, according to NCAA rules, they would be committed to Tennessee and would not be eligible for USC if they so desired to go there. This seemed contradictory to what Kiffin said at his press conference when he told reporters that he would not contact recruits, but if recruits contacted him, he would gladly and honestly answer all of there questions. Sure, this was a pretty dumb thing to say to begin with, but it's not wrong.
First of all, it is not against NCAA rules to do what Kiffin and Orgeron did. Kiffin himself could have called all of his top tier recruits while he was on the plane from Knoxville to SoCal to tell them not to go to class. But what I think people do have a problem with is that Kiffin has a history of being slimy and scuzzy and then he says he won't do something while his staff goes around and does do the very thing Kiffin said he wouldn't. While if you technically dissect what Kiffin said, he said he personally wouldn't contact players and he didn't, Ed Orgeron did. But I think it's clear when he says "I won't contacts players" he means him and his new staff. So yes, his words were still pretty dumb and he should have just said "I'm happy to be here, this is my dream job" and just be done with it. But I'm not going to berate and chastise the man for saying one pretty dumb statement.
Next, the reality of the situation is that college recruits go to schools because of the program and because of the head coach, not because of the actual school they're attending. You think Arrelious Benn wanted to play in Champaign, Illinois? You think Lawrence, Kansas and it's University are all that great? You think Michael Crabtree went to Texas Tech for the education and the lovely sights of Lovett? No, these athletes come to these schools because of the head coaches and the programs. I've heard Illini football players tell me that Ron Zook is the coolest whiteboy they've ever met and that factored into their decision to come to Illinois. Kiffin's top tier recruits did not come to Tennessee because of the University, they came because of Lane Kiffin. That's why when John Calipari went from Memphis to Kentucky this year, John Wall didn't say, "Shoot, now I'm at Kentucky without the man that recruited me." No, he hoped in the next flight to Kentucky with Calipari (probably).
And think about these players. I'm sure the vast majority of high schoolers getting recruited would have much preferred to go play at USC where they'll at least play in a bowl game, as opposed to Tennessee. I'm sure these kids are thrilled to be playing at a school that has a better football outlook than Tennessee, a better education than Tennessee, and play in better whether than at Tennessee. And if the kids truly did want to play in Knoxville, nothing's stopping them. Orgeron didn't force these kids to not go to class. He simple told them that if they did, they're absolutely committed to Tennessee. Whereas if they didn't, they still would be eligible to play at either school.
And not only is USC a better gig for the players, it's a better gig for Kiffin as well. And this USC job became open much later than most other jobs because of the lengthier season of the NFL and USC's head coach took a job that may have been inconvenient for the college ranks, but was plenty convenient for the pro ranks. Thus, USC had to scramble to find a new head coach. And if I'm Lane Kiffin, and I'm offered one of the premier jobs in the FBS, why would I not take it? Kiffin owes more loyalty to USC than he ever owes or would owe to Tennessee. Players transfer all the time and nobody cares, but when a coach does it, it's blasphemy. Brian Kelly (although he took a lot of shit for this) went from the nothing school of Cincinnati to another top tiered job- Notre Dame. (Although Kelly took his job before his team went to play in a BCS bowl game which THERE is the dick move). But Kiffin didn't screw over his team. I'm sure the school is upset that it's top talent is going to USC and not Tennessee, but Kiffin still gives the school plenty of time to recruit. And it's not Kiffin's fault that "his dream job" was open so late. Think about this. If the CFO of Apple gets offered the CEO/President position of say Microsoft and he instantly takes it, is he a jerk for taking a bigger and better job? No. So why are football head coaches treated any differently?
Point is, on the surface it may appear that Kiffin is a jerk. But ask yourself why you feel that way. Kiffin did what any rational person would do. Hell, if you were in Kiffin's shoes, you would do the exact same thing. While maybe he shouldn't have said anything about bringing ethics and doing things right at USC, his actions still tell me and should tell you, that he did nothing wrong.
Mitch Mustain wants to be 3rd string closer
Pete Carroll, always on the lookout for another 5 star recruit, got Mustain to transfer to USC, along with his Arkansas WR Damien Williams. Since then, Williams has become one of the top 5 WR in college football, and Mustain hasnt even been allowed to wear a headset or hold a clipboard. He sat behind John David Booty. Was overlooked in favor of Mark Sanchez. Was beaten out by a true freshman in Matt Barkley. And even couldnt get a spot start when barkley was out, and instead Aaron Corp got the start and proceeded to single handedly lose the game to the Washington Huskies. Let me reiterate, the top recruit in all of college football hasnt sniffed a football since getting benched as a true freshman at Arkansas. At least Matt Cassell was never expected to start in college. Mustain was to be the next great Heisman QB for the Trojans.
News reports came out today that Mustain will try to make the USC baseball team in the spring in hopes of playing something, anything. I dont know his pitching history, but i'm pretty sure his arm isnt in game shape for football, let alone baseball. And even if he does make the team, you know with his luck, he will the last guy in the bullpen, only pitching when the team is down 19-2 in the 9th inning against Arizona St.
Welcome to the OC bitch!
Aaron Corp got an introduction to what it's like being the starting quarterback for the Southern California Trojans. And that introduction ended with him getting kicked in the balls by Jake Locker and the greatly inferior Washington Huskies. I predict the Huskies will go like 4-5 in conference this year, thats how bad they are. Still Aaron Corp manned up and still found a way to completely tank. Dude threw for 110 yards and an interception. Not ever the Matt Barkley treatment of just handing off to the RBs wasnt enough. They out rushed Washington 250-50 and still lost? How is that even possible. I'll tell you how; Corp went all Cade McClown on the hearts of all USC fans.
You know the Cade McNown training regimen. Party it up hard, bang some playboy playmates, get sparknotes version of playbook, and hope for the best. Like be out of the league before your rookie contract is up. Dude was obviously not prepared for DIVISION I FOOTBALL, IT'S THE PAC 10, IT AIN'T INTERMURALS. Maybe he just wasnt prepared for the moment of playing in The Coliseum. I'm pretty sure next time Matt Barkley has to miss a start, Pete Carroll will start THE FORMER #1 OVERALL RANKED PROSPECT MITCH MUSTAIN instead of some frat boy reject. Oh, no i'm not judging him as a frat boy. It's a fact. According to some USC girls, and who wouldnt trust that, Corp was out the night after the loss partying it up at some frat house..errr..preparing for his next start. Anyone who checked facebook, twitter, blogs, or an actual human being knew that Corp was getting massacred and prepared for expulsion from USC. Honestly I'm surprised he was let into the party. Even frat houses have some standards.
