xISO By Batted Ball Type

According to data compiled by Dan Fox, the expected slugging percentages (xSLG) for a batted ball type from 2003-2006 look as follow:

• Popups: ~0.024
  
• Groundballs: ~0.262
  
• Flyballs: ~0.762
  
• Line Drives: ~1.014
  

Taking this one step further and calculate xISO by batted ball data, here are the xBABIPs from 2004-2008 based on batted ball type, courtesy of ESPN's Tristan Cockroft:

• Popups: NO DATA, but Tom Tango puts it at approximately .020.
  
• Groundballs: 0.239
  
• Flyballs: 0.138
  
• Line Drives: 0.725

Using these two data sets, here are the xISO per batted ball type:

• Popups: 0.004
  
• Groundballs: 0.023
  
• Flyballs: 0.624
  
• Line Drives: 0.289

To put these numbers in context, a guy with a .200+ ISO probably has 25 HR power.

Using Fangraphs' batted ball profile data, I have created a spreadsheet (which you can download by clicking here) which ranks guys based on GB%+IFFB%. In essence, it is a list which ranks players from guys who are most likely to post low ISOs this year to guys who are least likely to post a low ISO this year. Guys who lead the majors in GB%+IFFB% (and are thus likely to post low ISOs this season if all remains constant) include Hunter Pence (0.143 ISO so far this season), Lastings Milledge (.071 ISO), Rajai Davis (0.052 ISO), Chris Coghlan (0.009) and Troy Tulowitzky (0.118), strangely enough. Guys not likely to post low ISOs include Alfonso Soriano, Jayson Werth, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Nick Swisher.

QUESTION: Why does Aramis Ramirez, who is hitting 60% of his total batted balls in the air (the highest rate of his career), doing so poorly this season? Perhaps its age. Perhaps its lingering shoulder problems (just ask Geovany Soto). Maybe it's the 25% popup rate on fly balls. Maybe it's the MLB-lowest .179 BABIP...it's a situation worth monitoring. If these stats continue, the BA should remain low, but the ISO, which currently sits at 0.095 (thanks to 1 xBH (a double) since April 17), should rise. Ramirez has the 7th lowest GB%+IFFB% in the majors this season.

CAN YOU GUESS THE PLAYER?: Take a guess which MLB player currently stands alone, thanks to Chris Coghlan's double last night, with a 0.000 ISO (that is to say this person, and only this person, has no extra base hits on the season). Hint: he's top 10 in GB% this season.

Patton Injured?

On Monday the Cubs activated three players from the disabled list in Aramis Ramirez, Reed Johnson, and Angel Guzman. They had to make three corresponding moves. I thought they were going to send down Sam Fuld, Kevin Hart, and originally Mike Fontenot until I heard they were leaning towards sending down two pictures. The Cubs had 12 pitchers, but most teams have 11. Many teams shuffle back and fourth between 11 and 12 pitchers. There always seem to be a big debate (at least among the Cubs) to carry 11 or 12 pitchers or go with the extra bench guy. For as long as I can remember the Cubs always go with 12 pitchers for most of the season. When I heard the Cubs were probably going to send down 2 pitchers I thought they were going to send down Kevin Hart and Jeff Samardzija.

I turned out to be wrong. The Cubs ended up sending down Kevin Hart and Sam Fuld to Triple-A Iowa. Then they placed David Patton on the 15-day disabled list with a right groin strain, retroactive to July 5. Sam Fuld did well in limited action, but the Cubs have enough outfielders and there just wasn’t room for him. He batted .364 going 4-11including two doubles, 2 walks, and provided great defense. This was his first chance at the big league level since spring training last year when he lost the battle to be the everyday center fielder with Felix Pie. He never really had a chance then, and there just isn’t room for him now. Hopefully he’ll get another chance when we need him. We have a logjam of guys, who can play the outfield, especially the corner outfield with Johnson, Fox, and Hoffpauir who we have enough problems in finding playing time for.

Kevin Hart is another guy who has been up and down with the Cubs the last three years since we traded for him from Baltimore. In 2007 he looked like a great pick up only allowing 1 run in 11 innings pitched for a 0.82 ERA and also had 13 strikeouts. Last year he had a disappointing season pitching in 21 games going 2-2 with a 6.51 ERA pitching 27.2 innings, allowing 20 runs and 18 walks. Hart was called up for his first time this season on June 21st and had a 1.59 ERA in 5.2 Innings pitched. He looked good in limited action so hopefully he will be able to contribute when we go back to 12 pitchers or some one gets injured. I thought they should have sent down Jeff Samardzija over Kevin but knew they would send Hart down.

The third move the Cubs made was placing David Patton on the disabled List with a right groin strain. I didn’t even know he was unavailable, let alone injured. After the game on Sunday, Lou said it would be a very hard decision because everyone is playing so good. The players who aren’t playing good are signed to major league contracts or out of options and we don’t want to loose them. David Patton is a rule 5 guy. Thus, the Cubs have to keep him on the roster for the entire season or we would have to offer him back to Colorado. Patton was 3-1 with a 5.63 ERA in 24.0 innings pitched in 17 games this season. He has looked good at times, but was hit hard in a few outings. I think he will be good, but just needs time to develop. I wonder if he was really injured or the Cubs put him on the Disabled List to make room for others because he wasn’t doing that well. What do you think?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder fielding a hard groundball hit by Ryan Braun in the third inning.

:(

____

Update: Ramirez will be out 4-6 weeks. Look at how much pain he is in.

Clutch Factor (Part 2)

Below is an 8 year analysis of 10 player's "Clutch" rating, courtesy of Fangraphs. I've provided a raw, unadjusted 8 year total, a weighted career total (which adjusts the cumulative total to be proportional to PA/Season) and a postseason Clutch cumulative total to bench mark overall performance.





As should be relatively obvious from the data of these notoriously "clutch" players, the ability to be "clutch" from year to year is highly variable. There seems to be little, if any consistency from one-year to the next. Having looked at much data on Fangraphs, I found that across most player's careers, their cumulative weighted Clutch factor oscillated somewhere around 0 -- this, of course, seems to indicate that as a player's sample size of clutch-situation AB's increases, that player's performance numbers in such situations converges to reflect their average career performance.

However, there were several notable exceptions to this trend, a few of which are documented here.

The big name on the list is A-Rod, who over the course of his career has been incredulously unclutch. Throughout his career, his clutch-situation numbers have been consistently lower than his overall performance numbers. There is a clear statistical trend that seems to point to A-Rod being unable, for whatever reason, to perform well in clutch situations. The reason could be anything from simple sample size to simple psychological factors. Regardless of the cause, a trend does exist; you might even say that booing him has some statistical justification.

On the other end of the spectrum are Beltran, Ortiz and Captain Clutch himself, Derek Jeter. Each of these players have accumulated slightly positive clutch numbers over the course of their careers. Each has arguable statistically earned their label as "clutch players", even if it has been a byproduct of situational luck rather than skill.

Speaking of situational luck vs skill, it would seem that the former is most likely the cause of "clutchiness", as most player's weighted cumulative career clutch numbers fail to translate in the post season. Excluding Ryan Howard, of the remaining 9 players listed here, there is much variability between post season play and career averages. If clutchiness was truly a skill rather than a byproduct of situational luck, you would imagine more consistency between the two figures.

(also, Jermaine Dye -- whose numbers I didn't include is this analysis -- has a cumulative career clutch factor of -8.33, almost as bad as A-Rod!)