Note: Much of this post is just a highlight of the discussion and comments from this post.
Marmol's 2010 Stats:
24.2 IP, 1.46 ERA, 1.84 FIP, 2.09 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP...17.88 K/9.
That's right, 17.88 K/9. 49 K in less than 25 IP. By contrast the almighty Johan Santana has 49 K in 63.1 IP this year.
In the history of baseball, amongst all pitchers who have tossed 150+ innings for their career (and there are 3,641 of them), Carlos Marmol has the lowest Hits per 9 (H/9) rate of all of them
at 5.64. Billy Wagner has the second lowest H/9 at 6.08. Interestingly enough, the top 5 is rounded out by Troy Percival of all people (6.09), Francisco Rodriguez (6.16) and Joakim Soria (6.23).
The five worst pitchers in terms of H/9 on this list are a bunch of guys whose names I don't recognize, but scrolling thru the list, the worst H/9 pitcher whose name I do recognize is Carlos Silva, at 10.89.
This segues into the tangent point.
Can the Cubs please trade Carlos Silva? His smoke and mirrors routine this season may have certain clubs in need of a RHP sufficiently enticed to allow the Cubs to trade him. Put the Silva is overperforming argument aside. The Cubs need to move a starter and Silva is the worst of the bunch, despite the fact that he is 6-0 and "pitching well." For example, the Cubs might be able to trade Silva to the Dodgers, who want to get rid of George Sherrill. Alternatively, what about trading Silva to the Rangers for Rich Harden and Frank Francisco? Cubsfan4ever suggested that one, and I think it's plausibly possible.
Next, can the Cubs please get rid of Ryan Theriot? Theriot is an average/decent player up the middle, but his "value" comes from his ability to play shortstop, not his weak bat, and Theriot is no longer needed for the shortstop position. Plus, I love Mike Fontenot.
Theriot's weak arm, only slightly above average range, and generally poor offensive skills (good OBP, no power) make him entirely expendable for the Cubs, who have runs-producing/bullpen needs. Personally, I think a trade of Theriot to the Angels for Kevin Jepsen makes the most sense, followed closely by a trade of Theriot to the Padres for Luke Greggorson or Mike Adams (maybe this latter trade is just fantasy).
The Cubs have done well over their last 10 games, but somethings need to change if they are to compete this year.
Showing posts with label Carlos Marmol. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlos Marmol. Show all posts
Cubsfan4evr Top Sports Memory Of 2009
The past few days I have been seeing a lot of stories in the paper and segments on t.v. showing the best sport moments in the past year. So I thought I would share my favorite sport memory. I thought long and hard about the baseball season and the Cubs, but couldn’t think of many great memories. When I thought about the Cubs things that came to my mind were:
1. The Milton Bradley Saga
2. Kevin Gregg blowing save after save. One specific night comes into mind when I was at Champs with TBO and Sexy Rexy and the Cubs game was on. Gregg came in against his former team for the save and before I could blink the game was over and we lost.
3. Carlos Marmol getting himself in trouble by not being able to find the plate. He would walk batter after batter. I hope this whole off-season he is somewhere just pitching trying to get the ball with his movement over the plate.
4. Kerry Wood coming to Chicago and helping the Cubbies out by blowing some saves.
5. Soriano looking like age is catching up with him and his timing being a mess at the plate.
Hopefully the 2010 baseball season will bring me more positive memories for the cubs. I would have thought my best sports memory would be from the Cubs, but this was a bad and ugly season at times, so I had to think elsewhere. After the cubs I thought about the Bulls and Bears. The Bears had an uglier season than the Cubs, but the Bulls had some bright spots.
In 2009 the Chicago Bulls got lucky and had the number one draft pick in the NBA lottery. Instead of drafting Michael Beasley they choose Chicago native Derrick Rose. Even though I don’t know if he will ever be as good as Rajon Rondo or Chris Paul like some thought/think, he was the better choice. The Bulls were able to trade Larry Hughs and bring in John Salmons and Brad Miller that sparked the bulls. Even though it is still 2009 and they both look terrible, last season they were the spark plug that jumped the Bulls to make the playoffs and have an incredible run in the playoffs. So if you’re still reading this and a Bulls fan, then you may agree with me that the Bulls/Celtics series was incredible. That was some of the best basketball I have seen since the Jordan era and that was one incredibly fun series. Even though if they did have Kevin Garnet we probably wouldn’t of had a chance, but they didn’t, and that was some fun basketball with almost every game going down to the wire. So that series is my favorite sports memory in 2009.
Here is a clip of that Bulls Celtics series:
Watching it again makes me remember how much fun I had watching each game and where I was for most of those games.
What was your favorite sports memory for 2009?
1. The Milton Bradley Saga
2. Kevin Gregg blowing save after save. One specific night comes into mind when I was at Champs with TBO and Sexy Rexy and the Cubs game was on. Gregg came in against his former team for the save and before I could blink the game was over and we lost.
3. Carlos Marmol getting himself in trouble by not being able to find the plate. He would walk batter after batter. I hope this whole off-season he is somewhere just pitching trying to get the ball with his movement over the plate.
4. Kerry Wood coming to Chicago and helping the Cubbies out by blowing some saves.
5. Soriano looking like age is catching up with him and his timing being a mess at the plate.
Hopefully the 2010 baseball season will bring me more positive memories for the cubs. I would have thought my best sports memory would be from the Cubs, but this was a bad and ugly season at times, so I had to think elsewhere. After the cubs I thought about the Bulls and Bears. The Bears had an uglier season than the Cubs, but the Bulls had some bright spots.
In 2009 the Chicago Bulls got lucky and had the number one draft pick in the NBA lottery. Instead of drafting Michael Beasley they choose Chicago native Derrick Rose. Even though I don’t know if he will ever be as good as Rajon Rondo or Chris Paul like some thought/think, he was the better choice. The Bulls were able to trade Larry Hughs and bring in John Salmons and Brad Miller that sparked the bulls. Even though it is still 2009 and they both look terrible, last season they were the spark plug that jumped the Bulls to make the playoffs and have an incredible run in the playoffs. So if you’re still reading this and a Bulls fan, then you may agree with me that the Bulls/Celtics series was incredible. That was some of the best basketball I have seen since the Jordan era and that was one incredibly fun series. Even though if they did have Kevin Garnet we probably wouldn’t of had a chance, but they didn’t, and that was some fun basketball with almost every game going down to the wire. So that series is my favorite sports memory in 2009.
Here is a clip of that Bulls Celtics series:
Watching it again makes me remember how much fun I had watching each game and where I was for most of those games.
What was your favorite sports memory for 2009?
Carlos Marmol, expanded
Wow. It's been quite a while since I posted a player analysis piece. Just been waaaay too busy getting ready for law school I guess, and now that I'm employed it's hard to find time to piss away reading player charts daily. Aaaanywho, in case you missed it, I was on 670 The Score earlier today talking about Marmol's struggles. My assertion was, is, that Marmol's struggles are not related to mechanics but adjustments by major league hitting (specifically in reference to a drastic reduction in swing rates against his slider). Can I prove it? Read on to find out!
Take a look at Marmol's three year Pitch FX data, courtesy of Fangraphs.com (click the image to enlarge):
There are several things to note about this chart of data:
1) Marmol's velocity on each pitch is right in line with his three year averages (or slightly higher) -- IN-Vel is irrelevant because it refers to intentional balls.
2) Marmol's horizontal slider movement is on a three year decline, but still within 0.3 inches of his 2008 horizontal movement levels.
3) Marmol's vertical movement on the slider has been consistent each of the past three seasons.
4) Marmol's fastball movement (vertical and horizontal) and velocity has been consistent during his career as a reliever.
5) Marmol's curveball has maintained its vertical movement each season, but lost some horizontal movement each of the past three seasons -- although his 2009 horizontal movement is within a 0.4 inches of his 2008 movement level.
6) Marmol's curveball has gotten faster each of the past three seasons.
The previous six points reiterate and reinforce my thesis: that Marmol's stuff has been as good as its ever been. Especially compared to last year, Marmol's break on each pitch has been the same and his velocities have also the same (or better) on each of his pitches. So why, if his stuff has been the same, has Marmol's runs prevention per 100 pitches value on the slider dropped from a peak of 21.4 in 2008 to a career low 3.8 in 2009?
In my opinion, the answer is not that he's been overworked each of the past two seasons (he leads all relievers in IP from 2007-2008). The true answer lies in the following two charts (again, click to enlarge):
Each of the last two seasons, hitters have increasingly come to recognize that Marmol's sick slider usually breaks outside of the zone when thrown low -- and thus can be taken for a ball rather than swinging strike. Since his 2007, Marmol has induced about 5% less swings (per season) on pitches thrown outside of the zone. Furthermore, as hitters have been swinging at less and less of his pitches in general, his walk rate has skyrocketed from 4.54 per nine innings in 2007 to a ridiculous 8.48 rate per nine in 2009, while the strikeout per nine rate has declined from 12.46 to 10.56 over that same time frame. What is surely doing most of this damage is an increase reliance by Marmol on his slider. Since 2007, Marmol's slider usage has increased from 31.5% to 38.2% to a current rate of 40.0%. Thus, while Marmol's slider has been equally effective in terms of pure stuff each of the past three years, hitters have caught on to the fact that the low slider will break for a ball and thus can be taken for ball four rather than a swinging strike three.
The only remedy, as Boers and Bernstein indicated in their reply to my call, is an adjustment in Marmol's pitch selection and location. Unless he starts mixing up his pitches more effectively -- working in more, better controlled fastballs, for instance -- and holding off the low slider, Marmol's effectiveness as a top stop reliever will continue to decline.
Take a look at Marmol's three year Pitch FX data, courtesy of Fangraphs.com (click the image to enlarge):
There are several things to note about this chart of data:
1) Marmol's velocity on each pitch is right in line with his three year averages (or slightly higher) -- IN-Vel is irrelevant because it refers to intentional balls.
2) Marmol's horizontal slider movement is on a three year decline, but still within 0.3 inches of his 2008 horizontal movement levels.
3) Marmol's vertical movement on the slider has been consistent each of the past three seasons.
4) Marmol's fastball movement (vertical and horizontal) and velocity has been consistent during his career as a reliever.
5) Marmol's curveball has maintained its vertical movement each season, but lost some horizontal movement each of the past three seasons -- although his 2009 horizontal movement is within a 0.4 inches of his 2008 movement level.
6) Marmol's curveball has gotten faster each of the past three seasons.
The previous six points reiterate and reinforce my thesis: that Marmol's stuff has been as good as its ever been. Especially compared to last year, Marmol's break on each pitch has been the same and his velocities have also the same (or better) on each of his pitches. So why, if his stuff has been the same, has Marmol's runs prevention per 100 pitches value on the slider dropped from a peak of 21.4 in 2008 to a career low 3.8 in 2009?
In my opinion, the answer is not that he's been overworked each of the past two seasons (he leads all relievers in IP from 2007-2008). The true answer lies in the following two charts (again, click to enlarge):
Each of the last two seasons, hitters have increasingly come to recognize that Marmol's sick slider usually breaks outside of the zone when thrown low -- and thus can be taken for a ball rather than swinging strike. Since his 2007, Marmol has induced about 5% less swings (per season) on pitches thrown outside of the zone. Furthermore, as hitters have been swinging at less and less of his pitches in general, his walk rate has skyrocketed from 4.54 per nine innings in 2007 to a ridiculous 8.48 rate per nine in 2009, while the strikeout per nine rate has declined from 12.46 to 10.56 over that same time frame. What is surely doing most of this damage is an increase reliance by Marmol on his slider. Since 2007, Marmol's slider usage has increased from 31.5% to 38.2% to a current rate of 40.0%. Thus, while Marmol's slider has been equally effective in terms of pure stuff each of the past three years, hitters have caught on to the fact that the low slider will break for a ball and thus can be taken for ball four rather than a swinging strike three.
The only remedy, as Boers and Bernstein indicated in their reply to my call, is an adjustment in Marmol's pitch selection and location. Unless he starts mixing up his pitches more effectively -- working in more, better controlled fastballs, for instance -- and holding off the low slider, Marmol's effectiveness as a top stop reliever will continue to decline.
Why is Carlos Marmol struggling?
Decreasing strikeouts, increasing walks. What gives? I'm too lazy to do the analysis, but this graphic is pretty self explanatory
Basically, Marmol has limited himself to only two pitches this season (the fastball and slider, removing the curveball from the mix) and both have dramatically fallen in quality. Marmol's slider, the best in baseball in 2007 and 2008, has plummeted from a +21.4 runs per 100 pitches thrown rate to a mere 2.7 (87.4% decrease) and his fastball has gone from slightly positive to slightly negative in effectiveness (continuing a three year trend in declining fastball quality for Marmol).
I think we broke him last season.
Basically, Marmol has limited himself to only two pitches this season (the fastball and slider, removing the curveball from the mix) and both have dramatically fallen in quality. Marmol's slider, the best in baseball in 2007 and 2008, has plummeted from a +21.4 runs per 100 pitches thrown rate to a mere 2.7 (87.4% decrease) and his fastball has gone from slightly positive to slightly negative in effectiveness (continuing a three year trend in declining fastball quality for Marmol).
I think we broke him last season.
Carlos Marmol
What is wrong with Carlos Marmol? He was an All-Star last year and has arguably been the most dominant set-up man in the baseball the past 2 seasons. He will never be confused with Maddux for his plate control, but he has made up for a 4.5 walk rate by striking out an average of 12 batters per 9 in those 2 years. You couple that with a .150 batting average against and you have a dominant pitcher.
The problems began on Sexy Rexy's birthday last year, where Carmol gave up like a million runs to the (Devil) Rays blowing the game. This year he has 27 walks in 27 innings. That is unspeakably bad for anyone. Even Adam Eaton and Sidney Ponson would be embarrased by those numbers. He's still as difficult to hit, but the walks will kill him. He currently has the highest walk rate in baseball. If you look at some of the other names on the list, Hayden Penn was DFAed, Jorge Julio was DFAed, Edwar Ramirez was sent to AAA, and Matt Lindstrom is about to lose his closers job. I recommend Marmol start throwing strikes or his fate will eventually be that of Fausto Carmona
The Cubs in the World Baseball Classic
The World Baseball Classic starts March 5th. The Chicago Cubs have four players on the 25 man roster in the World Baseball Classic. They are Ted Lilly (USA), Carlos Marmol (Dominican Republic), Kosuke Fukudome (Japan), and Geovany Soto (Puerto Rico). They also have minor league prospects Alex Maestri (Italy) and Vince Perkins (Canada) playing in the World Baseball Classic.
Carlos Marmol was not going to play in the World Baseball Classic, but decided the other day he wanted to. This was after Lou reassured him that he would not loose the closer’s job if he went. He will compete against Kevin Gregg for the closer’s job when he gets back from the World Baseball Classic now. I think Kosuke Fukudome playing in the World Baseball Classic is a good thing. Hopefully playing with his fellow country men in a comfortable environment will get him starting off on the right foot. Then hopefully this will carry over into the season.
I think the World Baseball Classic is a great place for prospects to play and showcase what they can do. This is a good thing for Alex Maestri playing for Italy and Vince Perkins of Canada. Both should get good playing time and help their development.
Lets hope team USA does better than they did in the inaugural World Baseball Classic.
Carlos Marmol was not going to play in the World Baseball Classic, but decided the other day he wanted to. This was after Lou reassured him that he would not loose the closer’s job if he went. He will compete against Kevin Gregg for the closer’s job when he gets back from the World Baseball Classic now. I think Kosuke Fukudome playing in the World Baseball Classic is a good thing. Hopefully playing with his fellow country men in a comfortable environment will get him starting off on the right foot. Then hopefully this will carry over into the season.
I think the World Baseball Classic is a great place for prospects to play and showcase what they can do. This is a good thing for Alex Maestri playing for Italy and Vince Perkins of Canada. Both should get good playing time and help their development.
Lets hope team USA does better than they did in the inaugural World Baseball Classic.
