DME's Top 20 Fantasy First Basemen For 2011

It is up a few days earlier than expected, but my first basemen fantasy rankings for 2011 have gone live. Enjoy.

First Base: As Deep As It Gets

In 2009, the average first basemen hit .277/.362/.483 (.845 OPS) with 28 HR To put this in perspective, only three second basemen (Zobrist, Utley and Cano) posted higher OPS's last season, while the average hitter posted a triple slash line of .262/.333/.418 (.750 OPS).

Honestly, you can't go wrong at first base. Thirteen first basemen posted an OPS of .900 or higher (with Carlos Pena just missing the cut with an .893 OPS). The 19th and 20th overall first basemen in terms of wOBA were Russell Branyan and Paul Konerko, who combined for 59 HR. Konerko hit a quality .277/.353/.489 (.842 OPS) last season, right in line with the first base average. He did this with a .287 BABIP and .301 xBABIP. If we pessimistically assume that all of Konerko's additional hits (robbed in theory by bad luck) would have been singles, his triple slash line for 2009 would have looked like .292/.366/.504 (.871 OPS). Even James Loney, the 23rd overall first basemen in terms of wOBA last season, hit .281 with 90 RBI and a handful of stolen bases.

Even in a 12-team league, you can't go wrong drafting first basemen. If you're in a 10 team ESPN league with CI/MI positions, you should not even consider drafting either your 1B or CI position until round 20. Oh no, you're stuck with Paul Konerko and James Loney at first base! Boo hoo. According to xBABIP adjusted 2010 forecasts (based on 2009 peripherals), Konerko and Loney would earn you a composite .295 BA with ~40 HR, ~10 SB, ~150 RBI and ~180 RBI. Woe is you. According to Roto Authority's estimates, you can win a 14-hitter, 12-team league by averaging a .282 BA, ~12 SB, ~83 R, ~80 RBI and ~21 HR output per hitter. Go figure.

Holding: Do not draft first basement early. Lance Berkman (ADP of 59 on MDC as of today) may seem like a nice "value pick" in the fifth or six round, but its really not worth the top ten pick.

On a different note, did you know that Todd Helton, who posted an ISO of .200 or higher in each of his first 9 major league seasons, has the third lowest ISO amongst all qualifying first basemen on the Fangraphs default rankings over the past three seasons ? Only James Loney (.149) and Casey Kotchman (.142) have lower marks than Helton (.159). Age and a Humidor will do that to you, I suppose.