Is Crabtree as good as he thinks he is?

Michael Crabtree finally signed a 6yr/$32 million dollar contract after threatening to sit out the entire year and re-enter the 2010 draft. Obviously he was not going to do that. Even if the next team to draft him did give him the extra 5 million to match Darius Hayword-Bay money, he would still come out even based on the fact that he sat out a season of football where he could have made those same 5 million. Thankfully it never came down to that scenario and we can all move on with our lives. Wait! Stop! Hammer Time...is Crabtree even an elite wide receiver?

His statistical numbers at Texas Tech are meaningless based on the system he played in. If a QB with the arm of Ken Dorsey can put up 450 yards passing a game in college and not even get a tryout in the NFL, then you know the offensive system put up all those points. Not withstanding, Crabtree is an NFL caliber athlete and deserved to do in the first round. Dude ran a fantastic 4.48 40 yard dash on a bad leg. Not nearly the blazing 4.23 of Bay, but still worthy of a first round pick given his receiving skills. Still, I am not convinced that he is actually as good as he thinks he is. He's tall but not Randy Moss tall. He's fast but not Andre Johnson fast. He's an athlete but not a Calvin Johnson athlete. He's creative after the catch but not Brandon Marshall creative. I just dont see what skills will make him the superstar receiver that he apparently thinks he is.

None of us have seen him in an NFL game, so I have to go based on comparisons. I cant see him as a deep threat in the NFL. Deep threats need to be lightning fast. Bernard Barrian is a deep threat, Crabtree doesnt have those type of wheels to beat Asante Samuel down field. I see him as a dominant possession receiver averaging 10-11 yards per catch as opposed to the 15-16 of pro-bowl WRers. Best comparison I can make is Greg Jennings without the big play ability. And that should be good enough for everyone except for Crabtree

Kevin Youkilis > Carlos Pena

A long long time ago in a galaxy far far away, I predicted at the beginning of the baseball season that Kevin Youkilis would be better than Carlos Pena. I took a lot of shit for this. And now I am vindicated, because even though Pena ended up leading the AL in HRs, Youkilis has been better. Now I also thought Pena would be hurt most of this year thus making Youk better by default, but even still, Youk was better.

I would like to start by saying Youkilis had 588 PA and Pena 570. This is essentially the same amount so you can't really make an argument that so and so was injured for part of the year, because, statistically speaking, the difference in PA is so small, that it's practically negligent.

Our first comparison, and DME's favorite's category- fantasy baseball. This year, Youkilis rated 9th and Pena rated 19th among all first baseman in Yahoo!'s player rater.

But now onto what really matters- on the field performance and using fangraphs statistics. Pena had more homers, a better walk rate, SLG percentage, ISO, and was more clutch than Youk. However, Youk had a better:

-OBP
-BA
-K%
-WAR
-wOBA
-OPS
-LD%
-Spd
-K/BB
-UZR/ UZR/150

Youk was worth $24.9 and Pena was worth $12.3

Now granted, Pena's BABIP was extremely low causing is awful awful awful BA and lowering his OBP and OPS; but over the course of this year

KEVIN YOUKILIS WAS BETTER THAN CARLOS PENA

Strikeouts, Groundballs and Vertical Location of Pitches

The Baseball Analysts did some number crunching and definitely proved that there is an inverse relationship between strikeouts and groundballs in proportion to the location of pitches in the zone.

Check it out if you're interested. TBA has cool stuff.

Baseball not affected by the economy

Before the 2009 season everyone was wondering if the bad economy would affect baseball. This affected the last off-season drastically where many players received smaller contracts in length and dollar amount. The question was answered yesterday. Baseball was not affected by this economy. People still went to the games for the fifth highest attendance ever in Major league baseball. This is shocking that is was one of the best attendances ever! It will be interesting how this affects free agency and the arguments that agent's will use with this.

MLB Comeback Player of the Year Awards

Major league Baseball has announced the comeback players of the year award. Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals and Aaron Hill of the Toronto Blue Jays were the winners. You can read about the great years they both had. Both are coming off injury plagued seasons, especially Chris Carpenter. Carpenter only made four starts combined in the 2007 and 2008 seasons. He is coming off of major surgery and showed that he still has the stuff which won him the Cy Young a few years ago. He won't win in this year, but had a great season.

Casey McGehee Wins NL Rookie for September

This season Casey McGehee of the Brewers had a good rookie season. He became the starting third basemen for the Brewers beating out Bill Hall who was eventually released. McGehee quietly put together a good rookie season which ended with him winning National League Rookie of the Month Award for September
Casey McGehee had a very good rookie season even though he won't have a chance to win rookie of the year with Chris Coghlan, Pablo Sandoval, and Happ in front of him.

Many people don't realize that Casey McGehee was a Chicago Cub. He was drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 10th round of the 2003 Major League Baseball Draft out of Fresno State. He spent many years in the minor league system for the Cubs. He was a September call-up for the Cubs in 2008. He made his major league debut on September 2 as a Cub. Following the 2008 season, he was claimed off waivers by the Brewers, and added to the Brewers' 40-man roster. Now he has had a nice season and possibly the beginning of a nice career and the Cubs let him go for nothing.

Lee Wins Player of Month for September

Derek Lee had a disappointing finish to the 2008 season last year becoming known for hitting into the double play. That was the first time he was hitting into the double play ball regularly because he was pulling the ball almost every time he made contact. He started this season picking up where he left off batting .189 for the month of March/April with one homerun, 10 RBI, and a .253 OBP. Things were not looking good. Then he finally came out of it hitting .313 in May and looking like the old Derek Lee. Derek Lee had a great season and a solid finish for the month of September winning Player of Month. Derek Lee was one of the few bright spots of this team this season.

Cubs Approved to Ricketts family

Major League baseball has approved the Ricketts family to take over as the owners of the Chicago Cubs. I was surprised there wasn't more attention to this story. It happened yesterday over a conference call where the other 29 teams approved it. The deal still isn't done because the Tribune is in bankruptcy so it has to go through another bankruptcy hearing next week. The deal should be done by the end of October at the latest. Then the Ricketts family can start making decisions and set the payroll for next season.

Jets and 49ers Get Some Wide Outs

Update:

Braylon Edwards gets traded to the Jets for two drafts picks and a special teamer and WR Chansi Stuckey

Michael Crabtree signs with the 49ers

My Name is Wale and I'm Here To Git It

No, I'm not talking about the shitty D.C. based rapper, I'm talking about Bears DE Adewale Ogunleye. After years of sucking and not living up to his potential, he is having a monster four games. He's ranked 6th in the NFL in sacks- with 4.5. Granted, I think it's only because he was matched up against Packers RT Allan Barbre in the first game of the season who he just owned and a Detroit Lions lineman, but he's been doing very well. And Alex Brown is also doing amazing. According to football sabermetrics, the Bears are the best team against plays behind the LT and 6th best against plays behind the LG. Essentially, this means the right side DE is doing amazing- and that is Alex Brown.

In fact, Rod Marinelli really seems to be doing an amazing job with this defensive line. The Bears rank 4th in run blocking and 5th in pass blocking. That's amazing. Good thing too because out LBs, and most of out defensive sucks.

Orlando Pace Sucks

In the back of my mind I realized this would happen, but the Chicago media ticked me out of it. Orlando Pace is old and is not good.

This year, Pace ranks 23 our of 32 in blocking among LT. That's awful. Last year Josh Beekman (he was the LT last year right, either him or Garza) ranked 15th. This is pitiful this decline.

Do you know which Bears lineman is the best? No, not Pace (duh!), it's not Olin Kruetz, it's not youngin Chris Williams...

It's Frank Omiyale.

How the fuck did this happen!?

Good thing Jay Cutler is fucking amazing is all I have to say

What's Wrong With Brandon Jacobs?

This year, I drafted Jacobs with my first pick. Last year, in only 13 games, he had 15 TD's. Last year, both Jacobs and Derrick Ward finished top five according to footballoutsiders.com. When two RBs are in the top five, that tells me the production of the RBs is mainly due to the system and the offensive line, more than the talent of the backs. With the Giants having this fantastic O-line, how could I lose with Jacobs.He's the main back, gets a ton of carries, a physical runner, always scoring TDs, and only 27 years old. Yet, in the first four games, Jacobs has been awful, ranking 28th among all RBs in the Yahoo! player rater and only had one TD. So what gives?

We could all listen to the "Matthew Berry" approach. He says that teams are putting eight in the box and daring Eli Manning to throw because of his "no name receivers". While I'm sure that's part of it, that still doesn't explain why Jacobs is doing so shitty considering he's getting a considerable amount of carries. So I decided to look back to see why I liked Jacobs to begin with: the offensive line.

Last year, the Giants ranked 4th in the NFL in run blocking. This year they rank 10th. Well, sure, there's a drop off, but having the 10th best rushing offensive line still seems pretty good to me, so I looked even further.

Last year, C Shaun O'Hara and LT David Diehl ranked #1 in pass blocking. What makes it even more impressive is that these dudes played right next to each other, meaning I'm sure Jacobs and other Giants RB had a fun time running through massive holes created by O'Hara and Diehl. LG Rich Seubert also did his share ranking 5th among LG's. This means the entire left side of the offensive line, was pretty much amazing. I'm going to exclude the right side because RG Chris Snee and RT Kareem McKenzie ranked 20th and 24th respectively among their positions. It seems clear to me that the Giants were able to run so effectively because of the left side of their O-line.

But now let's take a look at that left side. O'Hara is ranked 16th, Diehl is ranked 14th, and Seubert is ranked 24th. This is a drastic decline. Ironically this year, the right has performed well because Snee ranks 7th and McKenzie ranks 9th. But still, this is nowhere near the productivity of last year.

So what explains the drop in productivity from this offense line? That I don't know. Maybe over the course of the season their numbers will even out. Maybe teams realized how good the left side was and how bad the right side was and opponents focused all their energy on the left leaving the right free and making them look better and the left look worse. If you have an answer, please let me know.

All I know is that, as a Brandon Jacobs owner, I'm pissed

Worthless Baseball Postseason Predictions

Now that the baseball has officially ended, it's time now for the post season. Here are my prediction for how I think the playoffs will shake out. Oh, and just like everyone on ESPN, I'm sure to be wrong about this

ALDS
Yankees def. Twins in 3
Red Sox def. Angeles in 4

NLDS
Cardinals def. Dodgers in 4
Phillies def. Rockies in 5

ALCS
Red Sox def. Yankees in 7

NLCS
Cardinals def. Phillies in 6

World Series
Cardinals def. Red Sox in 5

World Series MVP: Mark DeRosa

Joe 'F-ing' Mauer

The Big Lead had a great post on Joe Mauer and why he is better than you in every single way possible. My favorite line is that Mauer has won 3 of the last 4 batting championships (he was hurt in 2007).

Miguel Cabrera Hits Homers (and Women)

Fresh off yet another 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, .300+ season, Miguel Cabrera celebrated perhaps a bit too hard. Miggy got wasted with some White Sox players the other night and then came home and roughed up his wife a bit. You can hear the 9-1-1 call here and if you listen closely, you can hear sort of hear Miggy slurringly yell at the cops in the background (I think he says something about his kids...).

Could be worse, right? At least he didn't run anybody down with an SUV. Speaking of Albert Bell, apparently Mr. "I don't get excited talking about myself" has been pestering a Cleveland beat writer the last few years about how he would run a baseball team (from a golf course, if it was the Yankees) just in case anyone at all cared what he thought (which no one does). He also takes an attempt at being punny by calling Progressive Field "Regressive" Field. If it was up to Belle, however, the Indians would probably be playing at Aggressive Field.
"
In the article's words, "I have no idea why he calls me."

Home run results from 2009

Hittrackeronline.com is the resource most baseball analysts use when they need to know anything related to home runs. Distance, speed, trajectory, wind...it's all provided for you for every home run hit during the entire season. So let's look at some of the fun facts from the season

• The longest home run of the season was hit on the last weekend of the season, by Wladimir Balentien, at an astounding 495 feet. That would barely clear the fence at Citi Field
• Speaking of Citi field, there were 5 stadiums that allowed less homers per game, though dont tell that to David Wright who's average distance went up 3 feet, yet hit 23 fewer home runs
• The most difficult stadium to homer in this year was Busch Stadium, which is strange considering the home run leader, Albert Pujols, plays in that stadium. 414 foot average doesnt care about dimensions.
• Since 2005, David Eckstein has averaged more feet on his home runs than Dustin Pedroia. Sure, Pedroia hits more of them, but most are just over the short green monster. In fact, Pedroia OPSed 133 less points on the road. Maybe this blog needs a new writer named Dustin "MVP" Pedroia
• The new Yankee Stadium was by far the best homer park at nearly 3 per game compared to just 2 last year and 2.3 in 2007.
• Mark Reynolds hit the longest home run in 3 different stadiums and averaged a crazy 420 feet on the season. And he struck out line 220 times
• 2nd straight year no one in the AL hit 40 homers, and no one in baseball has hit 50 since 2007. Bring back the roids!
• Braden Looper gave up 39 homers, but who cares about the pitchers. Wake me up when Eric Milton comes back from surgery and give up back to back 40 homer seasons the way he did in '04 and '05
  

Fantasy Baseball 2009 Money League Results

With the exception of today's Tigers/Twins game, the 2009 MLB season is over and soon I will have nothing to do for five months (well, except lose fantasy football games and write "Were They For Real?" baseball analysis posts forecasting fantasy advice for 2010). Here are the results of this year's money league (12 team, 5x5 ROTO with 3 OFs).

Teams >> Cumulative Points

Cash Winners
01. David "MVP" Eckstein >> 106
02. Happy's Wallbangers >> 87.5
03. Stavi's Fingers >> 77.5

Non-Placing Participants
04. Cubsfan4ever >> 75
05. Kenny 1 Billy 0 [SexyRexy] >> 73
06. SupDup88 [The 'Bright' One] >> 69
07. The Godfather >> 66.5
08. Salty's Baseballs >> 66.5
09. Clee's Club >> 58.5
10. Schaf's Sluggers >> 40
11. Drew's Machines >> 34
12. Da Monkeys >> 26.5

If you want to see how each player performed in each ROTO category (R, RBI, HR, AVG, SB, W, SV, ERA, K, WHIP), click to enlarge the image below.


Congrats to those who placed, good luck to those who did not next year!

GOI Football Prediction Results: Week Four

Pigskin Pick 'Em*

1) Sexy Rexy

Overall: 41 out of 61, 67.2%
Last week: 9 out of 13, 69.2%

1) Cubsfan4evr

Overall: 41 out of 61, 67.2%
Last week: 10 out of 13, 76.9%

3) The "Bright" One

Overall: 40 out of 61, 65.5%
Last week: 8 out of 13, 61.5%

* we all forgot to pick Dallas/Denver

Fantasy Football League

1) Cubsfan4evr (3-1): 402 points
2) The "Bright" One (3-1): 376 points
3) Sexy Rexy (2-2): 372 points
4) David "MVP" Eckstein (2-2): 326 points

Eliminator Challenge

1) Sexy Rexy, Chicago Bears, (4)
1) Cubsfan4evr, San Francisco, (4)
3) J O'Brien, Minnesota, (1)
4) DME, DNP, (0)
4) TBO, DNP, (0) - damn, forgot to play
4) Richard, DNP, (0)

Salary Cap Football

1) The "Bright" One: 292.27 overall points, 84th percentile(prop should have replaced Gore)
2) Sexy Rexy: 317.04 total points, 95th percentile
3) Cubsfan4evr: ??? total points, ???th percentile

Football Board Bets

1) Pierre Thomas, 15th best RB this year
2) Reggie Bush: 1 rushing TD, no receiving TD
3)

Fred Taylor: 31 fantasy points
Ahmad Bradshaw: 26 fantasy points

You Like-A Da Juice? Nope, and Neither Does Ron Zook

A report came out today that shitty Illinois QB Isiah "Juice" Williams finally is getting benched forthe more talented Eddie McGee. Here is the article:

After a 1-3 start, Illinois has decided to make a change at quarterback.

Senior Juice Williams has been benched in favor of junior Eddie McGee for this week's game against Michigan State, Fighting Illini head coach Ron Zook announced on his radio show Monday morning. McGee, who has filled in for Williams multiple times during the last three seasons, will make his first career start against the Spartans.

Zook said Sunday on a conference call with reporters that he was considering changes at every position, including quarterback. Williams is a four-year starter and the Big Ten's most experienced quarterback, but he has struggled this season, ranking last in the league in pass efficiency (101) and throwing four interceptions and only one touchdown.

McGee is 19-for-30 for 211 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions on the season. He has appeared in 19 games in his career.

"Believe me, this is not all on Juice," Zook said on his show. "The poor guy has at times played extremely well, but the thing you try to do in athletics is you're trying to get a spark.

"This is not a knee-jerk reaction. This is a lot of thought and what-if, what-if, what-if. But the bottom line is we're in a part of our schedule now where we've got to go play."

McGee led Illinois to its only victory Sept. 12 against Illinois State after Williams went down with an injury early in the first quarter.

Williams became Illinois' career total offense leader last Saturday against Penn State. He led the team to the 2008 Rose Bowl and set total offense records in three stadiums last fall before a steady decline.

Funny, this is the exact same way Juice got HIS start. His career is cyclical I guess

Greg Olson Sucks

Greg Olson was supposed to be an elite TE. He had the size, build, and talent to be in the class of Witten or Gates or Clark or Gonzales, but where has he been. More stats will come, but seriously, just by watching him, why isn't he as good!? It's not the fact he isn't getting thrown to that's the problem (although it is a problem), he's doing well well with the limited targets that he's getting. After seeing him and Cutler become butt buddies this off season, I expected Olson to have a monster season. Yet, this hasn't manifested. I expect Olson is entering Vernon Davis territory, huge expectations and a lot of talent, yet not performing on the field. I've seen Olson drop some key, good catches from both Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler. I'm sorry to say, that if Olson doesn't start performing in the next couple weeks, I'm calling him another offensive Bears bust.

So anyways, here's some stats on Olson. This year, he ranks about 8th to last among all active TE's. In fact, Kellen Davis, the third string Bears TE is technically better than Olson because he so far has done amazing with the limited catches he's gotten. Guys I've never heard of like Stephen Spach, Sean Ryan, Will Heller, and Daniel Fells are all doing better than Olson right now. Detriot, New England, Carolina, Denver, and Tenneessee all have two TE's that have performed better than Olson this year. He only has a 50% catch rate this year and only one TD. Kellen Davis this year has two. Now last year he had 66% catch rate, which sounds good. But most TE last year had a catch rate above 70%. Last year Olson ranked about 23rd among all TE according to football sabermetrics. Guys ahead of him were Viscanthe Shaincoe, Tony Scheffler, Anthony Faisano, Daniel Graham, and Kevin Boss- just to name a few. Now those guys aren't really per se a bad clas of TE to be grouped in with, but Olson is supposed to be better than all of those guys.

I don't buy the "he has a bad QB throwing to him argument" because Schiancoe had an even worse QB throwing to him last year and he was great. Plus, Olson has sucked with both Orton and Cutler throwing to him. I also don't buy the "he hasn't been thrown to enough" argument. While I agree he should get thrown to as much as guys like Gates or Clark, it doesn't matter because the reason Olson sucks is not becaus he hasn't been thrown to enough. First, I believe the best receivers make sure they gte thrown to and make receptions because their good. Secondly, Olson hasn't done shit with the receptions and targets he's gotten.

This year, Olson is 18th among all TE's on the Yahoo! player rater. In 2008, he ranked 11th, and in 2007 he ranked 19th. There's no reason Olson should not be top six.

I think Olson has entered the "he's good solely based on reputaion- and is college one at that." I think there's no reason he can't improve, but I need to see drastic improvements.

Why I Liked Tyler Thigpen

I liked Thigpen because he performed in fantasy. Thigpen was 10th out of all QBs last year over guys like Chad Pennington, Tony Romo and shitty Ben Roethlisberger. Based on that I figured he was good. But as a passer he was not. But then I realized why he performed so well, he was the best rushing QB last year. Thigpen ranked first among QBs in rushing yards with 386 and a damn good 6.2 YPC and 3 TDs. He also even caught a 37 yards TD pass!

But I still think he's an awful passer and until he develops those skills, I will continue to now be down on him.

Jeff Garcia Gets No Love

I'm not saying Jeff Garcia is a HOFer, but I think he definitely deserves to start in this league. Every where Garcia had gone, the team has had success for the most part (we can exclude Detroit because everyone sucks in Detroit). He performed early in his career in San Francisco with T.O. When Donovan McNabb got hurt in Philly in 2006, Garcia helped bring the team to win a whole bunch of games towards the end of the season to bring the Eagles to the playoffs, and he performed well during his stint in Tampa Bay.

So when Tampa Bay released because he was their 43rd QB in the rooster, I was shocked when no teams wanted to sign him. He ended up in Oakland and I'm sure Raiders fans are just thrilled at how JaMarcus Russel is doing and probably don't have any regrets about Garcia not playing! I'm sure San Fran, Cleveland, Tennessee, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay wish they had Garcia right now vs. the shlub they're throwing out now.

But for some reason teams don't care, and it boggles my mind. Sure Garcia is old, but he's still effective and if teams wants to win now, why not sign Garcia? Here's a look at some of Garcia's stats:

He has a career 87.5 passer rating, which is good for 14th all time, 187 TDs (rushing and passing) to 83 INTs, and a 61.6% completion percentage which makes him have the 19th best all time. He is also very efficient ranking top 26 all time in: net yards per pass attempt, adjusted net yards per pass attempt, adjusted yards per pass attempts, and passes completed per game.

So why is Garcia forced to sit on the bench? I have no idea. But Oakland was dumb not to start him and he's letting them know that now

I'm On Mad Men!

Click here to Mad Men Yourself

The first one is of me and the second one is of DME (I got bored), and the third one is of TBO(which I was too lazy to create myself)

Troy Tulowitzki is the next Derek Jeter

My love for Tulo is undeniable. I coveted him in the GOI fantasy pay league draft getting him in the 5th round. After a terribly slow start, I finally dropped him in June because he was hitting in the low .200 and peer pressure from people in the league. I did replace him with Ben Zobrist, but it was never the same. Losing Tulo from my team was like the Cubs losing Wood and Derosa. The leadership, the intangibles, the clutchiness was gone from my team and it was never the same.

Tulo is a true leader on the baseball field and backs it up with great hitting, a decent glove at short, and tremendous knowledge of the game. His 2 full years in the bigs(2007 and 2009) the Rocks have gone to the playoffs, something they had only done once before the Tulo era. I will go as far as to say that he should be the NL MVP this season. Sure Pujols has superior stats, but look at the second half performance of each player. Tulo is OPSing 1.040 since the break leading his team on an amazing 17 of 18 winning streak and a chance to win the NL West. 32 homers, 20 steals, 102 runs, 92 RBI, above average SS, and 73 walks.

I'm starting to think that Baseball Prospectus kinda sucks at predicting things. This being my first day looking at their advanced statistics, I have seen many inconsistencies in the predictive abilities of the system. None of the breakout stars this year were predicted by BP. They had Tulo forcasted at no more than 18 homers in the next 7 years. Given his 32 bombs this year, and a 415 foot home run average, that prediction seems very conservative.

You can bet your savings that I will have Tulo on my team next year, the whole year, cause my predictive abilities tell me that Tulo at just 24 years old is the next big thing. 15 years from now, we may get nauseous at ESPN continually rubbing off Troy Tulowitzki

Andrews stalker arrested...You'll never guess his name

The FBI tracked down the dude who followed around Erin Andrew across the country filming peep hole videos of her in hotel rooms. Obviously, none of the GOI writers have ever seen or are currently in possession of such a video. Interesting facts about the arrest. The dude is from Chicago...he was arrested at O'hare airport...his name is Michael Barrett. LOL

Story

Fantasy Match-Ups: WR/TE

So I was looking around footballoutsiders.com and they have a metric breaking down how defenses do against a team's #1 wide receiver, #2 wide receiver, other receivers, TE, and RB (passing). So when planning for which recievers to pick up/ play during the time of bye weeks, I think this advice will help you out. So far, here's the teams that are the best and the worst defending each type of receiver

#1 Receiver
The Best
1) Bengals
2) Giants
3) Eagles
4) Saints
5) Chargers

The Worst
1) Raiders
2) Patriots
3) Ravens
4) Bucs
5) Texans

#2 Receiver
The Best
1) Broncos
2) Raiders
3) Giants
4) Titans
5) Chargers

The Worst
1) Bucs
2) Bengals
3) Seahawks
4) Colts
5) Jaguars

Other Receivers
The Best
1) Bills
2) Seahawks
3) Packers
4) Bears
5) Ravens

The Worst
1) Bucs
2) Lions
3) Titans
4) Browns
5) Redskins

TE
The Best
1) Packers
2) Colts
3) Raiders
4) Giants
5) Ravens

The Worst
1) Browns
2) Dolphins
3) Redskins
4) Lions
5) Titans

RB
The Best
1) Bucs
2) Jets
3) Packers
4) Bills
5) Raiders

The Worst
1) Patriots
2) Rams
3) Detroit
4) 49ers
5) Jaguars

So based off of those numbers here's a list of players we might expect to exceed in week four, or at least have favorable match ups
-Andre Johnson
-Randy Moss
-Derrick Mason
-Santana Moss
-Louis Murphy
-Antwaan Randel El
-Mike Furrey
-Pierre Garcon
-Nate Burrelson
-Nate Washington
-Johnny Knox
-Chris Henry
-Daniel Coats
-Robert Royal
-Kellen Winslow
-Greg Olson
-Marcedes Lewis

Those who have unfavorable Match-Ups:
-Braylon Edwards
-Dwayne Bowe
-Jerricho Cotchery
-Hines Ward
-Patrick Crayton
-Kevin Walter
-Bobby Wade
-Torry Holt
-Santonio Holmes
-Greg Camarillo
-Austin Collie
-Sidney Rice
-Dennis Northcutt
-Joey Galloway
-Julian Edelman (if Wes Welker plays)
-Visanthe Shianco
-John Carlson
-Owen Daniels
-Sean Ryan
-Heath Miller

RB (for PPR leagues)
Favorable Match Ups:
-Ray Rice (gets a lot of targets normally and is facing the worst passing D for RBs this week)
-Willis McGahee
-Glen Coffee
-Matt Forte (if he's going to break out it better damn well be this week)
-Steven Jackson
-Chris Johnson

Unfavorable Match-Ups:
-Clinton Portis
-Pierre Thomas
-Reggie Bush
-Adrian Peterson
-Ronnie Brown
-Steve Slaton

GOI Football Predictions: Week Four

Detroit at Chicago
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Seattle at Indianapolis
NY Giants at Kansas City
Baltimore at New England
Tampa Bay at Washington
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Oakland at Houston
NY Jets at New Orleans
Buffalo at Miami
St. Louis at San Francisco
San Diego at Pittsburgh
Green Bay at Minnesota

*Winner in Bold

Advice for Andre Johnson Owners

I have Johnson in both of my fantasy league and I have been torn on what to do with him this weel. Many "experts" have told me to always start mt studs, so no matter what, Johnson should be in my line up. However, I find this advice to be dumb, because even studs have bad games. In fact, Johnson has been sub par for me in 2 of the three games this year. In fact, one of those games was when Houston played the New York Jets- and Darrell Revis. Revis has shown this year that he is the best or second best cornerback in the game. When he's on a receiver, that receiver will not touch the ball. He's so for shut down my boy Andre Johnson, Pats best receiver Randy Moss, and Titans best receiver Justin Gage (although I'll say that accomplish is not THAT hard to do but still...). Revis has shut down every wide out he's faced.

But let's bring this topic full circle, when I say Revis is top 1 or 2, the other corner I had in mind is Oakland's CB (and apparently a guy that has a made up name) Nnamdi Asomugha. Last year, Asomugha was fantastic, essentially shutting down every receiver he faced. He faced Johnson last year, and shut him down. And this week, being a Johnson owner, I fear he will shut down Johnson again. And if that is the case, why would I start my stud wide out if he's gonna up bad fantasy numbers for me?

So instead of listening to Matthew Berry, I decided to do my own research. I looked up how receivers have done against the Oakland defense in three games. This year Oakland has faced San Diego, Kansas City, and Denver. I first looked to see how each Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, and Brandon Marshall did in each of those games because these were the best and/or #1 receiver opposing Oakland, respectively. I then decided to see how the best receivers did facing Oakland to see maybe if I should start Houston's #2 receiver, Kevin Walter, instead. Here's the results:

#1 Receiver
Vincent Jackson: 59 yards, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 56 yards, 1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 67 yards, 1 TD

Top Performer (in terms of yards)
San Diego: Vincent Jackson 59 yards (also, excluding TE Gates)
Kansas City: Bobby Wade, 72 yards
Denver: Brandon Marshall 67 yards

In all three games, Oakland's opponent's number one receiver scored at least 11 fantasy points and in two out of the three game, the best receiver in terms of yards was also the teams best receiver.

I would have thought that Nnamdi Asomugha would be all over the opponent's number one wide out like white on rice and thus maybe the team's #2 receiver would be better. However, this has not shown to be the case this year.

Now keep in mind, that past performances mean nothing in predictions like this. Asomugha could be better and guard Johnson. Or, because Johnson is a better receiver than any receiver Oakland has faced this year, that he could go off on another 150 yards, 2 TD game. But either way, I think it's safe to say, Andre Johnson owners should not fear starting him this week.

Billy Beane doesn't just draft baseball players (he also drafts women)

As an avid follower of the Moneyball Movie genesis (there's other posts about it floating around this blog without the proper tags for some reason...), I was absolutely devastated when I found out that the movie was initially canceled. Although the film seemed surreal (Brad Pitt, Steven Soderbergh, Dmitri Martin, Scott Hatteberg...what?) and although Moneyball seemed like it would be the absolutely last book ever turned into a movie, stranger things have been accomplished. Unfilmable movies like Watchmen and A Clockwork Orange became great films.

Alas, I digress. The movie has been re-greenlighted without Soderbergh on board. What shocks me, however, and provides the basis for this post, is that, as an avid Moneyball movie tracker, I missed this amazing article which revealed the existence of a Moneyball sex scene in the film's original draft!

A PDF of the script (which has since been taken down) was floating around the internet at the time, which

"...even includes a scene in which the Oakland GM hits up an Outback Steakhouse in Cleveland with Paul DePodesta and orders a Bloomin' Onion.

Later, Zaillian portrays Beane doing the most logical thing after eating a plate of fried onions with tangy sauce ... having sex with the waitress who served it to him."

Classic, right? The best part of The Big League Stew's article is the rationalization of why this scene was probably cut from the rewrite:

Perhaps Soderbergh deleted this scene and Pascal thought the absence of chain restaurant-related romance would hurt the film's test scores among women?

We wouldn't want a movie about baseball statistics and 30 year old men who live in their mom's basements to alienate the female audience with a sex scene now, would we?

Why You Should Never Punt

Here is an article about a high school coaches who is successful yet never punts. The guy has math and results to back up his plan and if it works for him, right on. However, I don't think this would be helpful in the pro game.

The coach says

If [the coach] has a fourth-and-8 at its own 5-yard line, Kelley said his explosive offense likely will convert a first down at least 50 percent of the time. If it fails to convert, statistical data from the college level shows that an opponent acquiring the ball inside the 10-yard line scores a touchdown 90 percent of the time. If Pulaski punts away (i.e., a 40-yard punt with a 10-yard return) the other team will start with the ball on the 38-yard line and score a touchdown 77 percent of the time. The difference is only 13 percent.

First of all, this is a big assumption that the net punt will only be 30 yards. What about for the Bears who have an elite punter and an elite special teams? I would imagine that most the the time, if you were opposing a team like the Chicago Bears that that 77% percent chance of scoring would go down because you wouldn't have as good of a field position as this coach was talking about.

Secondly, even if the net punt was only 30 yards, 13% is a huge amount. Why risk trying to convert when, if you fail, you essentially give your opponent an easier time to score- the last thing you'd ever want to do?

Here's another line that I don't agree with, at least on an NFL level

Kelley said his explosive offense likely will convert a first down at least 50 percent of the time

1) How many offensives are really "explosive"? Sure maybe the Saits, Colts, and Patriots might be able to pull off going for it on 4th down, but not most teams
2) This comment skews 50% as a good thing. Obviously, this means that half the time, you're not converting! Maybe I'm a cynic so I see this 50% is a bad thing, but it doesn't seem worth it to go for 4th down EVERY time, when you can only convert half the time.

I'm sure this strategy works great for high school football and maybe even for some college teams, but I think it's an awful idea for any NFL team