My Man Love For Anthony Gonzalez

EDITOR'S NOTE: Don't understand some of the advanced stats used in the post like DVOA and DYAR? click here

I admit that what I'm going to say is a BOLD prediction. But hear me out.

Right before all of my fantasy drafts, I was going to write a post entitled "R.I.P. Anthony Gonzalez" about how my one time sleeper was now fantasy dead. But in the middle of writing it, I noticed that Gonzalez was #2 on the Colts wide receiver depth chart behind Reggie Wayne and ahead of media darlings Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. This fact alone made him my number one guy to target in ALL my leagues and my number one fantasy zombie (copyright ESPN Fantasy Focus 2010)

A-Gon has always had talent, was a first round draft pick, and and was drafted by probably the smartest man in football right now- Bill Polian (not only is he responsible for drafting Peyton Manning and engineering this Colts dominance but he's also responsible for the great Bills teams of the early 90's that went to four straight Superbowls). Polian is the #1 guy whom I trust to spot talent when he sees it and to let his talented players play. And I trust, barring another crazy injury, that Anthony Gonzalez will play.

When Gonzalez first got drafted in 2007, all time great and trigger happy Marvin Harrison was on his way out. I'm sure the Colts planned for and what seemed to occur was that Reggie Wayne would take Harrison's place and Gonzalez would take Wayne's. In 2009, the Colts finally got their wish and released Marvin Harrison. 2009 was the year of Anthony Gonzalez!

And then A-Gon goes and gets injured in Week One.

In 2007, Gonzalez's rookie season, he was 1st in the NFL in DVOA (essentially value per play weighted against defense played) and 13th in the league in DYAR (essentially total value weighted against defense played). Considering there are 32 teams, each who start two receivers (and most give a decent amount of looks to it's third), Gonzalez was putting up some pretty impressive numbers- as the teams' #3 wide out. In 2008 Anthony put up similar numbers ranking 3rd in DVOA and 13th in DYAR. A-Gon also had great hands posting no less than a 72% catch rate in his first two seasons. To put that in perspective, out of 89 players with at least 50 targets in 2009, only six wide receivers had a catch rate above 70%- and one of those guys was Wes Welker. In the past three years, neither Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, nor Reggie Wayne has had a catch rate above 69%.

Anthony Gonzalez looked prime to step up and become not only awesome in fantasy, but also for the Colts. Instead, with Harrison out and Gonzalez injured, two nobody's named Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon stepped up and become offensive threats for the Colts.

But now let's take a ride in the DeLorean and see what would have happened if A-Gon had stayed healthy for all 16 games in 2009. Now admittedly, one, this entire premise is pure conjecture. What if Anthony Gonzalez had stayed healthy? What if a meteor came down to Earth and killed Peyton Manning? What if, what if, what if. Second, it's extremely hard to predict things like YPR (yards per reception) year in and year out. I can give you an player's average but what if that player performed worse than average in that individual year? Or better? What if in 2009 A-Gon had an anomaly year that was Troy Tulowitski-esque (maybe Brett Favre-esque would be a better analogy for you football guys that don't follow baseball)? Third, a lot of Gonzalez's value and good numbers came from him playing the slot and playing as a 3rd receiver. Playing on the edges as a legit #2 would decrease his numbers like catch rate, however there's no scientific formula (Yet! Get on it Football Outsiders!) of how a catch rate correlates with playing the slot versus playing the edge.

But that being said, let's try to predict what Gonzalez would have done anyway.

Last year, Peyton Manning threw 571 passes: 149 went to Reggie Wayne, 132 went to Dallas Clark, 91 went to Pierre Garcon, 90 went to Austin Collie, 63 went to Joseph Addai, and 46 went to other receivers. Last year, about 31.7% of Manning's passes went to Collie and Garcon. But how Peyton Manning distributed the ball last year has been atpyical of how he has done it the previous years because during Gonzalez's tenure, Manning has had a clear cut #1, #2, and #3 receiver (something he didn't seem to have in 2009). In 2008 (when Harrison played in 15 games), Wayne (#1) received 23.6%, Harrison (#2) received 19.3% and Gonzalez (#3) received 14.2% of Manning's attempts. While the breakdown between 2008 and 2009 is obviously not identical, and here's where I have to do some educated guessing, how many targets Gonzalez probably would have received should be analogous to what Harrison saw the year before.

Manning attempted 16 more passes in '09 than he did in '08 and Reggie Wayne saw 18 more attempts last year than he did the year before. Based upon how Manning threw when he had a clear cut #2 and #3 receiver in 2008 and the statistical difference in how Manning threw to Reggie Wayne in 2009, I will say that Gonzalez would have gotten 111 attempts leaving about 70 if either Collie or Garcon had stepped up as the clear cut #3 (as opposed to essentially the 50/50 split that occurred between Collie and Garcon).

Next, to see how many catches A-Gon would have had, we have to take his targets and multiply it by his catch rate (considering no receiver catches 100 percent of the balls thrown his way with 50+ attempts). As I mentioned earlier, Gonzalez has never had a catch rate below 72%. But Gonzalez rarely started/played on the edge which is where he would have lined up had he replaced Harrison. This means an expected decrease in his catch rate (I'm not going to get into why, but think about why Randy Moss's CR, never been above 61% in the past three years, and Wes Welker's CR, never been below 75% in the past three years, is so different and you'll understand why moving from the slot to the edge decreases your catch rate).

Last year, the elite wide outs had a catch rate between about 63 and 68%. Again, I'll use my best judgment but we'll say Gonzalez had a 65% CR (I'm being very conservative and 'realistic'). So catching 65% of 111 balls thrown his way is good for: 72 catches.

In 2007 Gonzalez had a 15.6 YPR. In 2008 he had a 11.6 YPR. If you can tell me with a straight face and claim you weren't lying and tell me what Gonzalez's YPR would be in 2009, then I'd slap you in the face (OK, I'm not THAT mean so I won't, but don't get me angry. You're not going to like me when I'm angry). But if we were to use logic and rationality we could make an educated guess. During Gonzalez's rookie season, Marvin Harrison only played in 5 games. In 2008 he (unsuccessfully) played in 15 games. So if we had to guess what number Gonzalez's YPR would be, I would say it's closer to his 2007 campaign than his 2008. Plus, guys like Marques Colston, Roddy White, Miles Austin, Vincent Jackson, Roy E. Williams, and T.O. all had YPR of 15.0+ in 2009 so to give Gonzalez a 15.0 YPR seems reasonable (Again, I'm trying to be very conservative).

An average of 15.0 YPC with 72 catches equals 1080 yards.

Lastly, we have TDs. In 2007 and 2008, Gonzalez had 8 receiving TDs in 11 games started. That extrapolated over a full 16 season equals about 11 TDs. Last year Collie and Garcon combined for 11 TDs so maybe Gonzalez would have had 8-9. But TDs vary every year and are extremely random (Hell, Greg Jennings only had four in 2009 when Aaron Rodgers had the best season of his career, was the best QB in the league last year, and virtually every one of Jennings other numbers looked identical). I can make reasonable inferences about a players YPR and targets based upon history and statistical data, but no amount of evidence can be gathered (short of grabbing that sports almanac that's the basis of Back To The Future II) to predict TDs.

Before I get into what I think Gonzalez would have done in 2009, I want to talk a bit more about what I think he'll do in 2010 (this will make sense in a moment your honor, I promise).

I think Gonzalez is going to do something very similar this year as he would had he been healthy in 2009. If I had to predict Gonzalez's 2010 numbers, I would still use the same catch rate and YPR, but recently, AOL Fanhouse created a projection list of how many targets each receiver on each team will get. Like everybody else, they predict Wayne and Dallas Clark will get the most (130) and Pierre Garcon will get the third most (110). But I truly believe that Gonzalez will get those 'Garcon' targets and be the second best wide receiver on the Colts. (Likewise, with this rationale, I am VERY down on Pierre Garcon. You can get him in free agency or as a late pick or for a dollar, then I like his value. But short of that, I do not recommend drafting Pierre Garcon just because of his decreased targets). Considering the only difference between Gonzalez' 2009 predictions and in his 2010 projection is the one less target in 2010....

So without further ado, here is what I project for Anthony Gonzalez to do in 2010 as well as what I thought he would have done (essentially) last year had he played all 16 games (conservatively):
110 targets/ 72 receptions/ 1080 yards/ 8 TD/ 1 fmbl

From a fantasy perspective, that would have been good for 154 points- good for the 13th best wide out right behind Wes Welker and right ahead of Marques Colston.

Listen, if I'm wrong, then what did you really lose? A dollar flyer in your auction draft. A free agency pick up. Your very last pick in your snake draft. However, I truly believe in Gonzalez and drafted him in my 10 team and 14 team leagues and will draft him in my 12 team league tonight and I hope I've convinced you to take a flyer on him as well.

The Prettiest Hit Tracker Ever

Cubsfan4evr Fantasy Football Advice: Wide Receivers

Now with the Game Of Inches fantasy draft done I can follow in the footsteps of "Sexy Rexy" and post my football advice which I am following in my drafts. I have worked hard to come up with my strategies and list of players to target that I think will have good seasons better than where they’re going, and of course a list of "value picks" for deeper leagues. I say "value picks" because what is a sleeper anymore. Any good fantasy football player has the same sleepers if they do their homework. That is why I came out with my strategy of targeting specific players that I think are good value where they are going in the draft. I have already given my fantasy football advice on running backs a few days ago and then did another article on runningbacks to target that will get the ball so now on to my receivers to target and my "value picks" at receiver.

I typically like to target receivers early in a draft. If I get a top 5 pick then you have to take a running back. If your first round pick is after the 6th pick then I would consider taking a receiver in the first round in Andre Johnson. He is a stud and the best receiver by a wide margin.

The two things I initially think about when evaluating a wide receiver are the talent of the receiver and the quarterback of his respected team with the offense. Let’s take a look at some of the top receivers projected this season: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, and Miles Austin. All of them have a top QB which makes them in a position to succeed. Ranked 4 to 6 are: Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Roddy White respectively. All three of these guys are very good, but has unknowns throwing them the ball. Calvin Johnson has a 2nd year QB in Matthew Stafford who still has a lot to prove and the same goes for Chad Henne to Brandon Marshall. Roddy White has Matt Ryan and it looks like his rookie season (Ryan's) was a fluke. With that said all three are still good, but limited to a degree by their QB. Because of the unproveness of their QB I am personally going to stay away from Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson. Both are going to have very good seasons, but there are better safer early picks where you should get more value for your return.

Here is a list of the top 15 WR according to Yahoo standard scoring and my take on them:

1. Andre Johnson-A great talent with a great QB as long as Matt Schaub stays healthy.

2. Randy Moss-Some issues at the end of last year but will be fine and repeat last year's numbers.

3. Reggie Wayne-A stud receiver on a great offense. Safest pick besides for Andre Johnson.

4. Calvin Johnson-Why gamble if he will stay healthy and if his QB will develop?

5. Brandon Marshall-New team that hasn't thrown the ball much in recent years. Chad Henne is an unproven so why risk it.

6. Roddy White-A beast who could easily be a top 3 receiver, even with Matt Ryan. Big fan of White who is the real deal.

7. Miles Austin- He has a good QB, and the best option on that team.

8. Larry Fitzgerald-With Kurt Warner spending his retirement on "Dancing with the Stars" Larry's stock drops a lot with Derek Anderson trying to get him the ball. Anderson likes throwing deep so better him at the helm over Leinart, but a big loss because of Anderson's lack of accuracy. He should still get 1.000 yards and some TD from the deep ball.

9. DeSean Jackson- I think his health could be a big concern, but when healthy a stud.

10. Greg Jennings- My favorite receiver this year after Johnson, Moss, and Wayne. He has dropped to 9 after last year's disappointing season, but he is a young dynamic receiver (and only one) in a pass happy offense with my favorite QB. His yards were pretty good last year and that should go up with his TD which you can't predict.

11. Steve Smith (Caronlina)- Could be underrated because of run happy offense, inexperienced QB, and healthy issues he is recovering from.

12. Marques Colston- Would be higher if they didn't pass the ball around so much.

13. Anquan Boldin- Health concern so I would avoid. High risk, high rewards.

14. Steve Smith (Giants)- A safe pick if you missed out on guys I like going before him.

15. Chad Ochocinco- His best days are way beyond him. Better younger options going much later.

Here are the receivers I am targeting early on from the above group:

1. Andre Johnson
   
2. Randy Moss
   
3. Reggie Wayne
   
4. Roddy White
   
5. Miles Austin
   
6. Greg Jennings
   
7. Marques Colston
   
8. Steve Smith (Giants)

These are the safest Wide Receivers to anchor your team with in my opnion. Greg Jennings going 9th among receivers is my boy who I think will have a monster year and love his value for where he is going. If you miss out on a top 6 RB go WR and get 2 from the above list with Jennings completing one of: Johnson, Moss, Wayne, White, or Austin. If you got a RB with your first pick or two then get Jennings with some receivers going much later. After the above eight WR are off the board here are my favorite WR going later.

Here are some Wide receivers I like a lot going later:

1. Michael Crabtree-Shaky QB, but great upside for how late he is going.
   
2. Jeremy Maclin-Best value WR. He is going to be a high level number two option in my opnion.
   
3. Mike Wallace
   
4. Devin Aromashodu
   
5. Jacoby Jones
   
6. Kenny Britt
   
7. Mohamed Massaquoi
   
8. Bernard Berrian

These are my value Wide Receivers of great value for where there going. Jeremy Maclin is going to be a stud and a steal for where he is going in the draft. Mike Wallace is another late flyer who is the number two guy now in Pitt and will be even better in a few weeks when Big Ben comes back. He would be a great backup receiver. Mohamed Massaquoi is another late flyer to take one of your last picks with. He should emerge as the number one option there and be a decent bye week plug in with more upside. Try to snag as many of these guys as possible.
That is my take on Fantasy wide Receivers this season.

New Podcasts Up with FFSpin

Sexy Rexy and Scott Pashley from FFSpin.com discuss all things fantasy football related like the Arizona QB and WR situation, the Denver WR situation, Pierre Thomas, the Philadelphia Eagles and much much more in this two part podcast.

You can listen to Part One here
You can listen to Part Two here

Forbes NFL's Top Five Management Teams

Forbes has ranked the NFL's Top Five Management Teams including the general manager and head coach based on the last two seasons performance and payroll. Their formula is:

"The grading system is based on the number of wins per player payroll (including
salaries, bonuses and benefits) relative to the rest of the NFL, averaged
over the 2007 and 2008 season. Postseason wins count twice as much as regular
season wins. A score of 120 means that the team achieved 20% more victories per
dollar of payroll compared with the league average."

The top five teams according to Forbes are:

1. New York Giants
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Philadelphia Eagles

These are the teams that are getting the most wins for their buck!

TBO vs Sexy Rexy vs *Cubsfan* QB Ranking

Only difference is my ranking includes Matt Leinart and Sexy Rexy's does not, oh and the fact that SR's is completely wrong.

Carlos Zambrano Soccer bobblehead

On Friday Septmeber 3rd, 2010 the Chicago Cubs had Carlos Zambrano bobblehead day. The bobblehead was of Zambrano playing soccer. One thing that stood out to me as soon as I saw the Carlos Zambrano bobblehead was it didn't look like Zambrano!

Does this look like Zambrano to you?

Instead this Zambrano bobblehead looks a lot like Derek Lee to me.

Forbes NFL Team Valuations

Last week Forbes evaluated the value of each NFL franchise heading into the 2010-2011 season and showed the public how much each team is worth. I could break down each team and provide in depth analysis, but who would be kidding with me breaking down the economics of football. I just thought it was interesting to see where each NFL team was ranked and wanted to share it with you if you haven't see this story yet.

Here are the rankings according to the article by Forbes:
1 Dallas Cowboys
2 Washington Redskins
3 New England Patriots
4 New York Giants
5 Houston Texans
6 New York Jets
7 Philadelphia Eagles
8 Baltimore Ravens
9 Chicago Bears
10 Denver Broncos
11 Indianapolis Colts
12 Carolina Panthers
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14 Green Bay Packers
15 Cleveland Browns
16 Miami Dolphins
17 Pittsburgh Steelers
18 Tennessee Titans
19 Seattle Seahawks
20 Kansas City Chiefs
21 New Orleans Saints
22 San Francisco 49ers
23 Arizona Cardinals
24 San Diego Chargers
25 Cincinnati Bengals
26 Atlanta Falcons
27 Detroit Lions
28 Buffalo Bills
29 St Louis Rams
30 Minnesota Vikings
31 Oakland Raiders
32 Jacksonville Jaguars

A few of the teams that stood out to me as being surprisingly high were: Washington Redskins at number 2, Houston Texans at 5, Baltimore Ravens at 8, Carolina Panthers at 12, and Cleveland Browns at 15. It was good to see these franchises so high.

Some of the teams I was surprised to be so low for the market or success of the team was Chicago Bears at 9, Green Bay Packers at 14, Pittsburgh Steelers at 17, Tennessee Titans at 18, Arizona Cardinals at 23, San Diego Chargers at 24, and the most shocking was the Minnesota Vikings at number 30! These teams I would have expected to be higher.

The Chicago Bears at number 9 had to be the most disappointing and I am not saying that as a Bears fan. Chicago is one of the biggest markets and it doesn't have two teams like New York. For these two reasons it should be higher. Thus, it should be in the top 3, or the top 5 to say the least.

Other great teams and storied franchises like the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, and Minnesota Vikings I would have thought to be much higher.

If you go to the article you can click on a team and read more about the appraisal for the team.

Could Matt Leinart Be The Next Aaron Rodgers?

Let me start off by saying that I DO NOT truly believe that Leinart will be the next Aaron Rodgers. Let me repeat, I am NOT saying Leinart, with 100% certainly, will be the next Aaron Rodgers. But if he did, it would not surprise me.

I was doing research for my QB rankings talent post and I came across this post I wrote in February of oh-ten where I said to not be down on Matt Leinart- at least not yet. I wrote this post before the 2010 pre-season and before the Arizona Cardinals cut Leinart from their team.

But I still think Leinart got an unfair rap.

First, let me discuss why I think Leinart had the potential to be the next Aaron Rodgers. Leinart's career resembled Rodger's a whole lot (before last week). First, Leinart was an elite prospect. Here was a guy, who had he come out the year he was eligible; the same year as Rodgers (and Alex Smith), he would have been the number one overall pick. There was some controversy and some flip-flopping when the 49ers had to choose between Rodgers and Smith. There would have been no doubt though that had Leinart been in that draft, the 49ers would have taken Matt Leinart over Smith. But Leinart chose to be dumb and stay at USC for another year for the sole purpose to take ballroom dancing, knock up his girlfriend, and lose to Vince Young in the Rose Bowl.

The next year, Leinart's 'stock dropped' when he went 10th overall to Arizona while his Rose Bowl counterpart Vince Young got drafted 3rd overall and combine superstar Jay Cutler got drafted 11th overall to Denver. Despite what you may think of Cutler and Young, both men are clear NFL starting quarterbacks who clearly deserve to start.

In Leinart's rookie year, starting 11 games, he sucked. But so does every other quarterback known to man. Now just because Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman sucked their rookie year does NOT suggest nor do I mean it to suggest that Leinart will be as good as these players, but it does mean that just because Leinart was bad in his first 11 games does not necessarily mean he will be bad throughout his entire career.

Like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Leinart held a clipboard for his first few years being on the team and watched a future hall of fame quarterback do awesome things for their team and win many many games as a starter. So when Aaron Rodgers finally got a chance to start, it seemed like he learned a lot from watching his future hall of famer do well and in turn performed well himself. So when Kurt Warner retired, Leinart seemed poised to do the exact same thing.

Secondly, Leinart got a bad rap because Derek Anderson is not a good quarterback. I has the 'privilege' of watching Anderson play when the Browns played the Bears last year. During that game, the announcer said that one of the keys for the Browns to win that game was for Anderson to actually make good throws to his receivers. This seemed like a REALLY dumb thing for a commentator to say (because they key for any QB to do well and thus for any team to do well is for their QB to complete passes to their receivers) but the man was right. I saw SO many wide open receivers (i.e. a wide open Josh Cribbs) not be able to catch passes, even dink and dump passes, because Anderson was just so bad at being a QB.

Think about this, a lot of people are saying Matt Moore is a QB upgrade for the Panthers this year, Jake Delhomme is a QB upgrade for the Browns this year, but Derek Anderson deserves to start and stay on the team over Matt Leinart? Huh?

During this pre-season, everyone is saying Matt Leinart sucked. But from my perspective, it seems like it was just a few guys at ESPN saying so and now the whole world agrees with them because we blindly believe everything SportsCenter tells us.

During this pre-season Leinart had a better passer rating (104.6 to 73.1), completion percentage (78.6% to 58.9%), and average (7.95 to 6.00) to Derek Anderson. Last year, Anderson completed less than 50% of his passes (44.5%), was the 5th worst quarterback according to Football Outsiders and 3rd worst per individual play. Even during his breakout 2007 campaign, he completed less than 57% (56.5%) of his passes. (Having Butterfingers McGee Braylon Edwards didn't help that, but still). Derek Anderson is not a good quarterback.

On the 8.24.10 The B.S. Report with Bill Simmons podcast, Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz said that Matt Leinart is awesome against zone coverage defenses and bad against man to man coverage defenses throughout his career and Anderson being the exact opposite. (That's why Leinart had that amazing game against the mighty Chicago Bears in 2006). Schatz joked that the Cardinals should have a QB by committee and play Leinart and Anderson against defenses to their strengths.

Despite the unfortunate unrealism to Schatz' comments, the Cardinals should not have outright cut Matt Leinart. I truly believe they should have let Leinart start all 16 games and at least give him the opportunity to be worth his first round draft pick. And when Derek Anderson starts to be the worst QB in the league halfway through the season, Cardinal fans will be begging to have Leinart back.

FJM: John Clayton's QB Rankings

Recently, ESPN's John Clayton ranked 33 quarterbacks in terms of talent. This list could not have made me more upset. Like a cliche sports blogger, I have to add my two cents and tell the author why he's a dumb mo fo and should never talk about sports ever again because he's the dumbest man alive. Plus it's a Saturday night so naturally this is the best thing on my list to do.

Here's Clayton's list

THE ELITE
1. Peyton Manning
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger
5. Brett Favre
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Philip Rivers
8. Tony Romo
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Carson Palmer
11. Eli Manning
12. Joe Flacco
13. Matt Ryan
14. Matt Schaub

CHAD PENNINGTON DIVISION
15. Jay Cutler
16. Kyle Orton
17. Matt Hasselbeck
18. Vince Young
19. Jason Campbell
20. David Garrard
21. Alex Smith
22. Matt Cassel

HIT-OR-MISS DIVISION
23. Mark Sanchez
24. Kevin Kolb
25. Chad Henne
26. Matthew Stafford
27. Byron Leftwich
28. Matt Leinart/ Derek Anderson
29. Josh Freeman
30. Sam Bradford
31. Trent Edwards
32. Matt Moore
33. Jake Delhomme

SIDENOTE: This list was created before Leftwich got hurt and Leinart got cut

Now with most rankings you're never going to have someone agree with you on 100% of your picks. Everyone is always going to think that Person X should be above Person Y. So when I look at rankings I look at groupings. Sure, maybe I think Person X should be better than Person Y, but both people are top 10 and I think that's right. But even still, John Clayton, what are you thinking!?

- My hatred of Big Ben is well documented. While I hate rapists and liars (especially those that get away with it), I especially don't like Big Ben because he isn't asked to throw a whole lot so a decreased sample size shows up as good statistical numbers. And admittedly Roethlisberger proved me wrong last year by having a lot of attempts, a still good completion percentage all while leading the league in sacks. So he gets a bump up in my book. BUT NUMBER FOUR!? COME ON JC! I thought we were past the fact that Superbowl rings does not equal good quarterback play. Was your colleague Trent Dilfer looking over your shoulder when you wrote this?

- Aaron Rodgers is AT LEAST a top 5 quarterback. Part of what makes the greats put up big numbers is because of their offensive line. You put Joe Montana or Dan Marino in front of the most recent Detroit Lions offensive lines and they put Jay Cutler-esque numbers. But Aaron Rodgers put up Dan Marino-eqsue numbers with an awful O-line last year. (tied for first last year in sacks with 50 and had the third worst passing offensive line last year). In my heart (especially as a Bears fan) I can't put him ahead of Manning, Brady, and Brees, but I think my head and logic says Rodgers needs to be top 3.

-Matt Schaub is only 14! WHAT!? The only flaw throughout Schaub's entire career (besides the fact that I've heard many people call him 'Schwaub') is that he's injury prone. But this list is not about fantasy football (and seeing how McNabb is at #9, this list is clearly about talent) it's about how well does a QB perform on the field. Schaub was an elite prospect/back up in Atlanta and always performed well on the field with a Detroit Lions-esque offensive line. Top 10 talent.

-The absolute worst ranking on this list is Matt Ryan. No amount of capital letters can begin to describe how much Matt Ryan sucks. I know this isn't fantasy but when you're healthy and Carson Palmer and Jason Campbell outscore you- you suck.

-Speaking of Carson Palmer- he's 2009 L.T. done. He's I-just-finished-an-easy-final-and-now-I'm-turning-it-in done. This is a shame because he was so good early in his career and looked like the best quarterback to come out of USC in the past decade (although he's still looking like that with the week Matt Leinart is having). But he's looked really bad since his knee injury in the playoffs a few years back and has done nothing since to deserve the "elite" tag

-I understand the frustration and hatred with Jay Cutler, as a Bears fan I do. But Jesus Christ the hatred has gone way too far. Yes, leading the league in interceptions and having it not be close is a HUGE knock on you. But he still completed 60+ percent of his passes and threw more touchdowns than interceptions. And Cutler's INT% was such a statistical anomaly that I refuse to believe he repeats his 2009 campaign. But you wanna talk about guys with bad numbers, just look at Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan.

-I'm glad Drew Brees is getting love. He's always been good where ever he's gone and he makes no name wide outs and 7th round draft picks stars. Plus, his kid is cute AS HELL.

- I love the talent of Philip Rivers. I heard he's the biggest douchebag and trash talker on the field but I think he's also a top 5 talent.

- Fuck Brett Favre. Oh, and Clayton's ranking of him sucks as well. At this stage in his career, Favre is barely a top 10 QB. But still light years better than Tavaris Jackson.

-As a real life player (because god forbid we talk about a player's real life value as opposed to his fantasy value), I like Vince Young. He loves to cough more than a man with lung cancer and emphysema, but the man just wins games. Normally, I'd say that how many wins a team has when a particular quarterback starts is just pure luck. But not with Vince Young. When his team is down by 5 in the fourth quarter (granted they are probably down because Young had 2 interceptions and a fumble in the game) Young just puts game winning drives together. It's just what he does. Plus, there's no stat for rushing for three yards on 3rd and 2- which is what Vince Young does. During a debate last week with my buddy, if I had to start a team today (real not fantasy) and get a QB for the next three years, which QB would I take: Young or Ryan? I took Young.

-Chad Henne is too low at 25 and Kevin Kolb is WAY too low at 24

-I think McNabb, E. Manning, and Orton are correctly placed/ right in the area they should be

Here's my list:

1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Drew Brees
5. Philip Rivers
6. Matt Schaub
7. Tony Romo
8. Brett Favre
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Donovan McNabb
11. Jay Cutler
12. Eli Manning
13. Joe Flacco
14. Kevin Kolb
15. Vince Young
16. Kyle Orton
17. Jason Campbell
18. Matt Ryan
19. Chad Henne
20. Carson Palmer
21. David Garrard
22. Matt Cassel
23. Alex Smith
24. Sam Bradford
25. Matt Hasselbeck
26. Byron Leftwich
27. Matthew Stafford
28. Mark Sanchez
29. Matt Moore
30. Jake Delhomme
31. Trent Edwards
32. Josh Freeman
33. Derek Anderson

Fantasy Football Advice: Every Down Running Backs?

I was recently asked the question what running backs I think will be “every down backs” for this season? That was a hard question to answer because many teams are going away from “every down backs" and towards a shared backfield as everyone knows. So I tried to come up with a list of possible running backs who may accomplish this.

I am going to define a "every down back" as someone with 250+ carries or more. So some teams that run a lot like the Jets and Carolina may have multiple backs that meet this criteria for fantasy purposes. In 2002 there was 19 RBs that had 250+ carries. Last season there was just 9. Here was my first list of candidates:

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. MJD
4. Frank Gore
5. Michael Turner
6. Steven Jackson
7. Cedric Benson
8. DeAngelo Williams
9. Ryan Grant
10. Shonn Green
11. Ryan Matthews

There are not many “every down backs” anymore with so many teams going with two to ease the load and not tax one back too much. For this reason if you don't get a top 5pick, I don’t think you should go after running backs early. Instead, you should concentrate on wide receivers and stock pile running backs later and one of them should be good if not more.

It is very hard to predict who will be every down backs because of injuries and other players who may take away from carries, even receivers, etc.

I am really big on Ryan Grant for where he is going. Again, he isn’t a top tier guy, and I wouldn’t reach for him, but he is every down back so I like him. If you don’t get a top six pick or so then I would go after a guy like Grant. Look at how many carries he has had the past two years
It is for this reason I don’t like Grant for years to come but for the next year or two. Then he will fall apart.

The Jetss like to run like crazy. Last year, as a team, they ran almost 700 times. Thomas Jones had 331 attempts last year and with Shonn green getting those carries he should be golden. Another guy to go after in late 1st round.

Both Carolina backs could get that many because they run so much. Especially DeAngelo Williams, but both should get carries. I don’t like Ryan Matthew for where he is going, but he will get the ball a lot because I think the rest of the team will not be good and be a disappointment.

From my initial list I would be worried about Turner, Benson, and to some degree Jackson staying healthy, but I don’t have that much to prove it on, just sort of a hunch. Jackson is coming off back surgery this offseason and he has had a lot of carries the past few years.

Here are the guys I think will get 250+ this season:
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. MJD
4. Frank Gore
5. DeAngelo Williams
6. Ryan Grant
7. Shonn Green
8. Ryan Matthews

Out of those 8 guys it is hard to say who will really be every down backs. That is something very hard to predict. Personally I would only trust: Chris Johnson, AP, MJD, Gore, Grant, Greene, and Williams. I would be surprised if someone else emerges, but a guy like Mendenhall could, especially with Big Ben being out a few games.

What do you think?

Quick Thoughts On Manny To The White Sox

While I agree with DME that the most cost effective decision for the White Sox was to sign Jim Thome at the beginning of the year. As a Sox fan, I like the White Sox acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers for just the remainder of Manny's contract. Even though the White Sox are not a big market team like their North Side Chicago counterparts or the Yankees or Red Sox, that hasn't stopped them from spending. And as a fan, I don't care how much the price tag costs for these players. Sure more money for the players could mean a higher ticket price for me, but I only go to 3-4 White Sox games a year and I pay for the cheap-o seats anyways (and those prices don't bother me as much. Maybe it's gone up from the past couple of years, But I don't really care). At the end of the day, all I care about is the product on the field. Case in point- Alex Rios. Would I like a player of his caliber to come cheaper, of course. Do I mind that he's getting paid a crap ton but is also awesome? Not at all. As long as my players perform.

And Manny can perform.

Quietly, Manny has a triple slash line of .312/.407/.508 which is good for a .392 wOBA and a .915 OPS. He's walking at exactly his career average (13.6%) and striking out a tick under his career average (21.9% career, 19.6% in 2010). Sure his home runs are way down this year (he only has 8 on the year) and he has an ISO and SLG below his career marks, his 2010 ISO and SLG are still nothing to sneeze at (.196 and .508 respectively). Plus, Manny's only played in 67 games amassing only 236 plate appearance. You know what's also a way to not get a lot of home runs and classic counting stats, not play a whole lot. PLUS, Manny is going from pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium to homer friendly Comiskey.

And of course, Manny will be infinitely better than Mark Kotsay (.303 wOBA, .696 OPS) and somewhat better than Andruw Jones (.353 wOBA, .803 OPS).

I do think this is too little too late, getting Manny for one month isn't the magic antidote to give the White Sox a playoff birth, and his contract is still vastly expensive.

But with that being said, I do like having Manny on the South Side and I like this move a lot.

Cubsfan4evr Fantasy Football Advice: Running backs

Now with the Game Of Inches fantasy draft done I can follow in the footsteps of "Sexy Rexy" and post my football advice which I am following in my drafts. I have worked hard to come up with my strategies and list of players to target that I think will have good seasons better than where they’re going, and of course a list of "sleepers" for deeper leagues.

In the first round I would only take a running back if you get a top 5 pick. If you have the opportunity to take Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Frank Gore you should take them. If not then I would take a WR instead in the first round. My strategy is to take a top RB if I can, otherwise to take WR and QB early by stockpiling many average RB later.

This are my rankings for the top 30 RB:
1) Chris Johnson
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Ray Rice
4) Frank Gore
5) Maurice Jones-Drew
6) Michael Turner
7) Steven Jackson
8) Ryan Grant
9) DeAngelo Williams
10) Rashard Mendenhall
11) Jerome Harrison
12) Cedric Benson
13) Arian Foster
14) Ryan Matthews
15) Shonn Greene
16) Pierre Thomas
17) Jamaal Charles
18) Justin Forsett
19) Jonathan Stewart
20) Jahvid Best
21) Joseph Addai
22) LeSean McCoy
23) Ahmad Bradshaw
24) Felix Jones
25) Tim Hightower
26) Matt Forte
27) Beanie Wells
28) Michael Bush
29) Ricky Williams
30) Clinton Portis

As I said though I don't like many running backs for where they are being drafted. So here is a list of the actual running backs I would draft based on where they are going.

The list of runningbacks I would actually draft:

• Chris Johnson
• Adrian Peterson
• Ray Rice
• Frank Gore
• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Ryan Grant
• Rashard Mendenhall
• Jerome Harrison
• Arian Foster
• Justin Forsett
• Jahvid Best
• Ahmad Bradshaw
• Tim Hightower

I wouldn't reach for these players more than a round early, if I didn't think they would come back to me. I would draft other positions, especially wide receivers early on and wait for these running backs that I am targeting. The reason is I think these running backs are good value for where there going. The other running backs I excluded from this list from my top 30 backs are still good and may have good seasons, but I think these players are better values for where there going. So if one of those other players fall a round or two then I would draft them if they are healthy.

Running backs I like later that I think could be great value out weight their ranking and be difference makers for a team are: Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best, Arian Foster (big on), and Michael Bush. I think some of these guys could develop into getting the lion share of the playing time. I think Bhest could be an injury risk, on a bad team, but if he does well he will get most of the carries. Forsett could also develop into getting enough carries a game. Arian Foster could easily emerge with the Texans being down on Slaton. Thus, these are guys I would target with later picks. I wouldn’t reach for them, but if they come to you, jump on them.

I am really big on Ryan Grant for where he is going. Again, he isn’t a top tier guy, and I wouldn’t reach for him, but he is every down back so I like him. If you don’t get a top six pick or so then I would go after a guy like Grant. Look at how many carries he has had the past two years:
It is for this reason I don’t like Grant for years to come but for the next year or two. Then he will fall apart. Depending on your league with the number of teams, if you have a flex, and the number of positions he would be a good number one back if you took a stud receiver with your first pick or a great 1-2 punch if he was your second pick. You can't go wrong with grant this year.

Who Is This Sports Insider?

This man is an legend in sports and has resurrected the careers of many athelthes. With that said I don't know if many people know what he looks like. Who is this sports legend?

Hint: He has mostly worked with athletes in football and baseball, but not necessary all of his clients are in those two sports. Some of the more notable people he has worked with are: Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Bo Jackson, Mark Sanchez, Drew Brees, Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, Emmitt Smith. Roger Clemens, John Smoltz, Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, and Jim Thome among many others.

Derrick Rose Following Lamar Odom's Candy Fix

Lamar Odom has made it known that he eats candy before a game to give him a sugar rush which he says helps his game. It makes me skeptical that it really gives an NBA player an edge like Odom claims.


Derrick Rose told reporters at the end of last season that he loves Skittles and can eat them all the time. The Wrigley company heard of this and acted on it.

"A Skittles spokesperson said the company has been sending the candy to
Rose since his sweet tooth was exposed in several articles."

They decided to give Derrick Rose a customized Skittles machine that has:

""D. Rose" on the bottom, right corner, has a motion-activated sensor that plays
a recorded message -- perhaps taped by Rose -- when someone walks past."

He will also get a 3-year supply for the machine. Hopefully it will give him the edge like candy does for Odom. Expect to start seeing these around the Untied Center some timesoon or maybe even closer to home. I thought this machine was really cool and had to share it.

It's Sexy Rexy's Man Crush Tommy Johnagin On Letterman

I'd put up the video of Michelle Beadle on Letterman but she was really really boring

The Race For Last Place Takes Place Here

MLB Trade Rumors has "reverse standings" up on their website which measure draft pick compensation, rather than playoff odds.

According to the numbers, the Cubs are 3.5 losses away from a top 3 draft pick!

New Podcasts Up

Hear Cubsfan and I rant about fantasy RBs and our fantasy team- which I promise you will help your team.

Listen here

Facts of Life: Kenny Williams' Big Mistake

The White Sox decided to experiment with their DH spot in 2010. Instead of re-signing a prodigious slugger with great on base skills (Jim Thome), Kenny Williams instead decided Mark Kotsay was awesome (he is not) and that the DH should exist for the alternative purposes of resting the fielders (some of whom -- specifically Quentin -- should not be playing defense in the firse place). Comically enough, Ozzie Guillen blames Thome for no longer being a White Sox. Quote Guillen:

Jim Thome made the decision to leave to the Dodgers," Guillen said initially about the August 2009 deal. "He made that decision to himself, all right.

Though Ozzie Guillen has sarcastically accepted the blame for the Thome non-signing, he and G.M. Kenny Williams owe a genuine apology to White Sox fans. Here is why.

The White Sox, after tonight's win against Cleveland, sit four games behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central Standings. Jim Thome, who makes a measly $1.5 million this season, has accrued +2.4 WAR for the Twins while Mark Kotsay, who has the exact same salary as Thome this season, has produced -0.6 WAR for the White Sox.

In a vacuum, a re-signing of Thome by the White Sox would give the South Siders a +3.0 WAR swing in the AL Central Standings. Note, however, that Thome has only accrued 279 PA this season while splitting DH duties with Jason Kubel. Of course, Thome's been platooned, which may exaggerate his bottom line, but any potential non-platoon "regression" would surely be offset by the additional playing time he would have seen with the White Sox. Let's just leave the WAR at +2.4 and call it even.

The White Sox do not play in a vacuum, however. Thome, in not re-signing with the White Sox, signed a deal with the Twins. Hence, in a Thome-on-the-Sox-over-Kotsay theoretical situation, you have to not only add +3.0 WAR to the White Sox 2010 win total, but also subtract 2.4 WAR from the Twins' 2010 win total. That turns a 4.0 game lead by the Twins in the AL Central into a 1.5 game lead by the White Sox.

Still think it is OK to be sarcastic, Ozzie? It gets worse.

Not only are the White Sox sitting 4.0 games behind the Twins in the AL Central standings, but they have found themselves ultimately in need of a hitting DH (turns out burning Mark Kotsay's bat was not enough of a move at the July trade deadline. Maybe the White Sox should have tried burning Kotsay's contract (and Mark Teahen's, while they were at it) instead).

Unable to procure either Adam Dunn or Lance Berkman, the White Sox claimed Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers in exchange for salary relief. Without question, the Manny move is an upgrade for the White Sox. Whereas Manny is projected by ZiPS to hit .290/.398/.533 (.399 wOBA) for the rest of the season, Kotsay was only pegged to hit .244/.313/.384 (.305 wOBA) down the stretch. Dave Cameron sees this difference as worth around +1.0 WAR for the White Sox. Unfortunately for the White Sox, however, they are four games behind the Twins (thus, they have three more wins to make up somehow) and Thome has a wOBA of .413 on the season (with a projected wOBA of .370 down the stretch).

Per MLB Trade Rumors, 31 games of "salary relief" means $3.8 million. That figure is more than 2.5 times what Thome will make all season and almost $1 million more than Kotsay and Thome's salaries combined.

Then, of course, you need to consider that Manny is Manny and you never know quite what you are going to get with him. He might try and get pregnant again or invoke his alleged "do not play" clause during day games. In another chapter in the "Manny Being Manny" saga, Manny took the early flight to Cleveland from L.A. this morning and was at Progressive Field in time to play ball, but did not in the White Sox starting lineup. Manny told reporters that he felt like he was 25 again, but he could not play because, as TBO speculates, he woke up to early that day. Ozzie Guillen's comments after the game seem to confirm this speculation.

To summarize, the White Sox are not in first place this year because they decided that subpar offensive production from the DH position was acceptable so long as they could rest Alex Rios' and Juan Pierre's knees every so often and find a way to work Mark Kotsay's mighty bat into the lineup. Had the White Sox just not give Kotsay a bat to burn to begin with, the Sox would be at least a half game closer in the AL Central Standings. Because the White Sox gave Kotsay said bat, they are now paying 2.5 times the money it would have cost them to keep Thome all season for just 31 games (scratch that, 30 games, as Manny did not play Tuesday) of Mannywood. Talk about "fail."

I wonder if the White Sox will sell re-branded Manny dreadlock caps left over from his time in L.A.

News Flash: Federer Is Good At Tennis - Again

Nearly a year after I documented Federer's incredible between the legs shot against Novan Djokovic in last years US Open played at Flushing Meadows New York, he did it again this year.

The GOI Football Draft Wrap-Up Special, Part IV

Everyone is doing a review of the GOI fantasy football draft auction so apparently I need one as well.

First of all, DME who was kicked out of the league, probably cause he never wins fantasy, was in my ear on the phone for my first 5 selections. I didn't do extensive research and didn't partake in any mock drafts. Instead I decided to not let price get in the way of the players I wanted. For some reason in auction drafts, people become very stringent in how much they are willing to pay for a player. Oh, I will pay not pay more than 25 dollars for Roddy Roddy White, even though I really love him and believe he can single handedly win me a couple weeks of fantasy football. Sure, sometimes you get into a bidding war and 2 dollars above budget becomes 4 then 6 then 8, but you cannot worry about the future when it comes to auction. This concept is not the same as going stars and scrubs like DME did in baseball where you spend all your money on 3 guys, this is simply extending your budget a few dollars that you may not even need later in the draft. The bench if fairly inconsequential to a fantasy football team. Each player only has 1 bye week and you can probably find a better option in FA once the season starts than anyone you actually drafted.

Football is probably the least skilled sport of any of the top 10 you can think of. The players who dominate tend to be the ones with the freakish athletic ability. I grew up watching Miami-Florida St dominate college football in the late 90's and no one had more freaks than those Florida teams. That was my strategy, simple as that.

There have been too many NFL season's where a single running back has literally won entire fantasy leagues. Whether it be Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, LT, or Chris Johnson. So it is crazy important to get a top RB and hopefully the top RB. I made the decision that AD, whom I still call AP, was the running back to go with. His athleticism is undeniable with an amazing combination of size, strength, and speed. Only 2 years ago people were anointing him the greatest of all time, and now he is becoming overrated because he fumbled a couple times. It is almost a given that he will lead all running backs in TDs and possibly will lead in yards. His passing skills are suspect, but 43 receptions last year is no chump change and only 7 less than Chris Johnson with an identical average. I love love love CJ, but to think that he can break off 3 80-yard runs again is kinda nuts. I was willing to do whatever for AP, but getting him at $65 while guys like MJD, Rice, and Turner went for the same or more was a huge steal.

I was willing to play the season without a top tier QB such as a Cutler, Palmer, Flacco type, but seeing the prices QBs were going for, I decided it was worth the $36 I paid for Brees. In fact, it was DME who was urging me to stay in the bidding war for Brees which I ended up winning, such that I felt a little bad for spending so much for a QB after paying 65 for AP. But then I thought to myself, how can i feel bad about a QB who throws for 4500 yards and 30 TDs like clockwork.

I bypassed a lot of RBs who I really liked, such as a Charles, Slaton, Jacobs, Mathews simply because I had my top guy at running back locked up. I took a gamble on Run DMC hoping the retards who run the Raiders would stop giving 10 carries each to a clusterfuck of RBs and just make McFadden the featured back. Dude invented the wildcat and may be the greatest college player I've ever seen. Yes, Bush had better numbers in the Pac-10, but Run DMC ran over the entire SEC, without even a marginal QB, and ran for 200 yards against LSU and Alabama. If he played for any other team in the NFL, be would already be in the pro-bowl. I knew this was a dangerous pick, but I made it knowing full well that I was getting Reggie Bush at any cost. I figure that combination of #2/3 RB was a winning complement along side AP. (Side note, I thought Forte at $26 was the steal of the entire draft)

To me, the WR position is like starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. I value them very low because I feel I can find suitable options later in the draft or even FA instead of wasting top picks on them. Sure we all want King Felix, but i'll settle with Clayton Kershaw 8 rounds later. WR simply do not get enough touches on a weekly bases to be worth the money. We complain that Pierre Thomas only got 184 touches last year. Well every great WR not named Andre Johnson only gets 80-90 touches for the whole season! I completely disregarded the whole PPR concept. The difference between 70 and 90 catches is only 10 points over the course of 16 weeks. Who the fuck cares? I stuck to my freak athlete theory and got great value in Marques Colston, who is a top 5 WR talent and is only hindered by having too many weapons around him, and DeShawn Jackson who in the words of Kenny Powers is faster than fuck. My only worry is having Kolb throwing to him. Sorry Cubsfan but Kolb will show up in your nightmares this season. Getting Mike Wallace was a bonus as he is basically a Jackson clone with no Holmes standing in his way. Though I love Santonio Holmes. Then I drafted a barrel of WRs hoping to use as trade bait in Henderson, Heyward-Bay, Moore, and Cribbs.

There is usually a very small point differential between TEs, so no need to overpay for any. None appear to be great/in their prime to really consider spending money on them this year. Only guy who I see as having potential to dominate this year is Witten and that is unlikely. My comp actually logged off for me and autopicked Kellen Winslow, which I had no problem with as he fits the athletic freak category and played for The U.

No chance I pay for a kicker, so I got Sebastian Janikowski for a dollar. He did play for those Florida St. teams i loved so much and the Raiders should score more points this year. Oh and he's the best 50 yard kicker in the game and those are worth 5 points I believe. Maybe I pick up Rob Bironas if he is dropped by a team with 2 kickers.

I payed less than no attention to defense thinking I would just get on in FA or just stream every week like I usually do, until I saw the Cowboys just sitting there for me. They only have the best defensive lineman in Ware, a stellar secondary, and a 3-4 defense that is very prone to fantasy related stats.

Overall I was extremely happy with how my team turned out. Regardless whether I win or lose, I can feel satisfied knowing i am playing with the team I wanted.

Like Marshawn Lynch when he finds out he's gonna be a baby's daddy again, I am OUT!

get			$200
1.	(6)	Adrian Peterson	$65
2.	(26)	Drew Brees	$36
3.	(41)	DeSean Jackson	$16
4.	(51)	Marques Colston	$19
5.	(61)	Kellen Winslow	$11
6.	(89)	Darren McFadden	$10
7.	(99)	Mike Wallace	$10
8.	(131)	Reggie Bush	$10
9.	(161)	Dallas	$2
10.	(168)	Julius Jones	$1
11.	(179)	Devery Henderson	$5
12.	(188)	Darrius Heyward-Bey	$3
13.	(196)	Lance Moore	$1
14.	(203)	Sebastian Janikowski	$1
15.	(208)	Joshua Cribbs	$1
Total			$9

View the GOI fantasy team at http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/league/goi and vote on who you think the preseason favorites are

View Cubsfan's take on the draft in Part III here
View Sexy Rexy's take on the draft in Part II here
View Part I here

The GOI Football Draft Wrap-Up Special, Part III

Cubsfan's thoughts on the draft:

We have recently just completed the Game Of Inches Fantasy Football Auction draft 2010. This was the second time I have ever done an auction draft. The first time being the Game Of Inches fantasy baseball draft 2009. For those of you who haven’t followed this draft, it was less than pretty for me. I went in with no game plan for my first auction draft and it showed. I wasn’t aggressive and let all the players I wanted go off the board because I was worried about spending all of my money up front and not having enough left for later in the draft. As I learned the hard way, you don’t need much later when all the good players are gone. Us it is good to have some for the mid value guys you think will outperform their value, but you don’t need to have $20 left over like I did in the Game Of Inches fantasy baseball draft 2009. I had a rough baseball season because of not being prepared for the auction draft. So I started my research early for fantasy football 2010.

I am in a few competitive fantasy football leagues this year. Of course all of them are different types ranging from auction drafts, snake drafts, 10 team leagues to 12 and 14 teams. I did my research and did my best to have strategies for each of them. It makes it hard to put together a plan when all the leagues you are in are so different. So I had a few strategies for the GOI auction draft. I figured I would see how the draft played out and try a combo of them. That turned out to not be a good idea.

My first pick was Maurice Jones-Drew for $66 after I missed out on Chris Johnson for $69 and Adrian Peterson for $65. TBO got AD as a steal and everyone thought he paid a lot, but it obviously was a bargain. As you see MJD for $66 was stupid. I would have been much better paying that for Peterson or Chris Johnson. Going into the draft I was targeting MJD because he is steady, gets a lot of TD, catches a bit for this PPR league, and one of the most consistent safest players to take in my opinion. Another big reason I was targeting him was I thought I could get him for a discount thinking people would get in bidding wars and over pay for Peterson, Johnson, Ray Rice who is a PPR stud, and Frank Gore who I think has a lot of upside even though he is a top 5 guy. For some reason this didn’t happen and I didn’t want to lose out on MJD because then my team would of had a big hole and missing a stud anchor.

My second pick was Greg Jennings for $25 who I feel has a lot of upside. My goal was to get Jennings at $20, but like all of my players except Jeremy Maclin I overpaid for him. I love Jennings this year and think he will rebound from last year’s disappointing season. Last year he only had 4 TD with 9 and 12 the previous years respectively, so I think that number will go up. With that said, he isn’t an ideal PPR player because last year he only had 68 receptions last. In 2008-09 he had 80, with 53 in 2007-08. I feel like his receptions this season should be similar as they were last year, with 2008-09 just being an outlier year. Thus, I like Jennings as my second receiver, not my first receiver which he turned out to be!

With this being a partial points per reception league for my number one receiver I was obviously targeting guys who caught a lot of passes last year. Andre Johnson led the league last year with 115 catches, but Sexy Rexy beat me out for at $49. Wes Welker looks like he is making a very quick comeback, but I didn’t want to take that risk for $24, but in retrospect that might have been a good investment. With Brandon Marshall switching teams and playing with a unproven QB I was concerned. Fourth in receptions last year was Larry Fitzgerald, but with no QB I didn’t want to pay $29. T.J. Houshmandzadeh was 5th in receptions last season and has always been a good possessions receiver. He was a steal for $9 and I don’t know why I didn’t on him because he would have been a receiver for me even at 12 or 13 dollars. Roddy White was a guy I was targeting but stopped bidding at $30. I thought Michael Crabtree would be a good value, but I was surprised he went for $25. Dwayne Bowe had 80 receptions last year and Anquan Boldin had 89 so both were on my list of players to target. So I lost out on all of these receivers that I wanted so I settled on Jeremy Maclin for $9. I wish I would have bided a few more dollars for T.J. Houshmandzadeh though; who I think went underrated in this draft being a PPR league. TBO drafted DeSean Jackson for $16 and Marques Colston for $19 which were both great steals at those prices, even in an auction draft. I like Maclin, but wish I had a better receiver than him to go along with Jennings.

With my two receivers set I needed a QB and that was an ugly story folks. I really like Kevin Kolb and thought I could get him for a steal under $10. Obviously other people liked him because I got in a bidding war for him where I won at………………………………$16 which was way over priced. The problem was I liked him better than Cutler, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, and all of the guys I would have liked better, Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Brees, and more realistically Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, and Tom Brady were off the board. Funny story about Tom Brady, the guy who drafted him accidentally bided on him for $60 and he already had Rodgers! So I felt I needed Kolb and way overpaid for him. You should be noticing a trend with my Team now, I missed out on all of the players I wanted or overpaid for the ones I wanted!

I needed to get two RB for my flex and second RB spot. I got my guy Ryan Grant for $38, about 9 dollars more than I wanted to spend on him. He is a good RB, but doesn’t catch much at all. I also had to over pay for Arian Foster who I was hoping to get around 10 at $16. People made fun of me for this move, but all the RB left at this time who I liked such as Michael Bush and Justin Forsett aren’t the starting RB and have a logjam of guys with them, while foster is the guy. So I liked this move.

My computer timed out during the draft and got me a kicker in Nate Kaeding at $12, which is 10 dollars more than I would have paid for a kicker. Over paying a lot for Kevin Kolb, Nate Kaeding, and to some degree Ryan Grant and Arian Foster I didn’t have any money left over for my bench. My bench is an embarrassment and barley serviceable with Mohamed Massaquoi, Fred Taylor (Patriots), Matt Hasselbeck, James Jones for when Driver shows his age, Chris Chambers, and Golden Tate.

As you should be able to tell by now, I don’t like my team, especially for a PPR league. We will see how the season plays out though

View the GOI fantasy team at http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/league/goi and vote on who you think the preseason favorites are.

View Sexy Rexy's take on the draft in Part II here
View Part I here