If we are going to play by MLB's archiac notions that every team needs to have an All-Star then it think it neat and easy to do to look at each team's best player. The players WAR is in ( ).
AL
Central
Tigers- SP Justin Verlander (4.0)
Indians- SS Asdrubal Cabrera (3.3)
Royals- OF Alex Gordon (3.2)
White Sox- SS Alexei Ramirez (3.1)
Twins- OF Denard Span (2.7)
East
Blue Jays- OF Jose Bautista (6.2)
Yankees- OF Curtis Granderson (4.8)
Red Sox- Adrian Gonzalez (4.6)
Rays- 2B Ben Zobrist (4.5)
Orioles- C Matt Wieters (2.4)
West
Angels- SP Jered Weaver (4.7)
Rangers- 2B Ian Kinsler (3.8)
Mariners- SP Felix Hernandez (3.5)
Athletics- Gio Gonzalez (2.2)
NL
Central
Pirates- OF Andrew McCutchen (5.0)
Brewers- OF Ryan Braun (4.1)
Reds- 1B Joey Votto (4.0)
Cardinals- OF Matt Holliday (3.8)
Astros- OF Michael Bourn (3.2)
Cubs- SP Matt Garza (2.5)
East
Mets- SS Jose Reyes (5.2)
Phillies- SP Roy Halladay (5.1)
Nationals- 2B Danny Espinosa (3.4)
Braves- C Brian McCann (3.3)
Marlins- 1B Gaby Sanchez (2.7)
West
Dodgers- Matt Kemp (4.5)
Rockies- SS Troy Tulowitzki (3.7)
Giants- SP Tim Lincecum (3.2)
Diamondbacks- SP Daniel Hudson (3.2) / OF Justin Upton (3.2)
Padres- OF Cameron Maybin (2.4)
Javier Vazquez: Second half breakout candidate
The following is my latest article for The Hardball Times.
All stats current through July 7.
Javier Vazquez | Marlins | SP | 25 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: 5.64 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.25 K/9, 1.82 K/BB, 32.2% GB%
Oliver ROS: 4.29 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.75 K/BB
What a fall from grace Javier Vazquez's steep and sudden decline has been. A notorious and perpetual sabermetric darling for his career, the prototype for Ricky Nolasco always put up great peripherals that never seems to match his surface stats. Some, if not most, of the gap may have been ballpark and defensive effects, however.
From 2004 to 2008, Vazquez, a flyball pitcher by trade, played in some pretty offense-inflating and home run-inflating ball parks in front of some of baseball's poorest defenses. In 2004, he played for the Yankees, who collectively posted a major league-worst team UZR total of -75.9 runs.
The 2005 season was no different, as Vazquez pitched for the third-worst defensive team in baseball, the Diamondbacks, whose -48.8 team UZR hardly offset the environmental effects of a park that used to bolster offense much more half a decade ago than it does now.
And then, of course, Vazquez famously pitched for the White Sox at US Cellular Field, one of baseball's most home run-inflating ballparks, between 2006 and 2008 before the team traded him away for Tyler Flowers and Brent Lillibridge. (Hey, at least it's more than what they got when selling Nick Swisher, who they gave up Gio Gonzalez (again) to acquire).
Though Vazquez had a solid season of results for the Sox in 2007 (15 wins, 3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 213 strikeouts over 216.2 innings pitched), his results overall were largely poor (627 innings of league-average 4.40 ERA baseball) and "unclutch" (-3.80 Clutch rating between 2006 and 2008).
Vazquez's tenure on the White Sox only saw his bad-park, bad-defense meme continue. From 2006 to 2008, perhaps largely because of Jermaine Dye (aka "Life To Flying Things"), the White Sox's -80.5 cumulative team UZR ranked fifth-worst in baseball ahead of only the Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Pirates.
Regardless of the results, from 2004 to 2008 Javier Vazquez's underlying peripheral performance remained strong and ranked well amongst his peers. Not only did his peripherals indicate a better-than-his-results pitcher, but Vazquez was also one of baseball's most durable.
From 2004 to 2008, Vazquez's innings pitched total of 1041.1 ranked ninth overall amongst all pitchers who played at least one game during that span. Only Johan Santana (currently on the DL), Brandon Webb (currently on the DL), Roy Oswalt (currently on the DL), Mark Buehrle, Livan Hernandez, CC Sabathia, Jon Garland (currently on the DL), and Carlos Zambrano (currently on the DL) pitched more innings during that span.
Over those 1041.1 innings, Vazquez punched out 939 batters while only walking 273, for an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.44 (2.00 MLB average). Amongst the 153 pitchers to toss 400 or more innings between 2004 and 2008, Vazquez's 21.4 percent strikeout rate (16.7 percent MLB average) and 8.12 K/9 rate both ranked 18th overall, while his 6.2 percent walk rate (7.6 percent MLB average) was the 29th lowest. His 1.26 WHIP was also 26th-best in the majors.
Despite posting the 34th-worst groundball rate (39.6 percent) amongst this sample of pitchers, Vazquez's nonetheless owned the 27th-lowest xFIP (3.85 xFIP, 87 xFIP-) of those 153 pitchers.
In 2009, then, perhaps it should come as no surprise that Vazquez was one of baseball's best pitchers. Not only did he move from the DH-laden American League to the senior circuit, a move that tends to cause a pitcher's K/9 rate to spike by +0.57, and his ERA to decrease by approximately 0.41, but for the first time in his career, Vazquez was pitching in a offense-neutral park that slightly suppressed home run production in front of a middle-of-the-league defensive team.
As might be expected, Vazquez had a career year, producing a career-best 9.77 K/9 rate, a career second-best 1.81 BB/9 rate, and a career-best xFIP and FIP (both 2.77) that were only slightly below his career-best ERA of 2.87. Vazquez rewarded fantasy owners with 15 wins and career-best 1.03 WHIP.
Among the 130 pitchers who threw 100 or more innings in 2009, no one posted a lower xFIP than Vazquez, not even Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, whose 2.83 xFIP was the only other xFIP in baseball below 3.00 that season. Vazquez's 9.77 K/9 rate ranked sixth-best in the majors amongst all pitchers with 100 innings in 2009, his walk rate was eighth-best, and his 5.41 K/BB ratio was second only to demi-gods Roy Halladay (5.94) and Dan Haren (5.87).
Not to humble brag, but as someone who drafted Yovani Gallardo, Dan Haren, and Vazquez that season (not to mention acquiring Zack Greinke in early April), you can imagine my productive year in fantasy. Alas, I digress.
Not only was Vazquez a great pitcher in 2009, but his 219.1 innings (32 starts) that year continued his legacy of durability. That year marked his 10th consecutive season of 32 or more starts, averaging 216 innings per campaign over that span and failing to top the 200 innings mark only once with a "mere" 198 innings in 2004.
Though 34 years old entering the 2010 season, few, if any, pitchers seemed more durable with better stuffs—especially on the free agent market—and the Yankees took notice. They shipped off quality starting pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino (and Melky Cabrera) to the Braves in order to give Vazquez a second-chance at proving New York and the AL East was not "too tough" a place for him to pitch.
Vazquez's flyball tendencies and New Yankee Stadium's first year home run-happy exhibition indicated that Vazquez was unlikely to duplicate his 2009 success for New York's Bronx Bombers in 2010, but a strikeout rate above eight batters per nine, a sub-4.00 ERA, and top-notch K/BB ratio were to nonetheless be expected. No one could have predicted what happened next, as the wheels to came off—fast. Even Andruw Jones' meteoric fall from grace took a couple of seasons to occur.
Not only did Vazquez's move from the NL back to the AL—and from Turner Field to New Yankee Stadium—cause some regression, but Vazquez completely came apart as a pitcher. His average fastball velocity, which consistently sat between 91.1 MPH and 91.8 MPH from 2005-2009, plummeted to 88.7 MPH in 2010. In only one start, in fact, did Vazquez's fastball even average 90.
Fastball velocity is highly correlated to strikeout rates, ERA, FIP, and batting averages against, so perhaps Vazquez's loss of 2.5 MPH of stink off his cheese (food metaphor!) explains his then-career-low 6.92 K/9 and career-worst FIP/xFIP marks. However, walk rates are not very affected by changes in velocity, so there must have been something else at play, perhaps a hidden injury (Vazquez ultimately did spend time on the DL in 2010) if we are to explain a career-high 3.72 BB/9.
At the least, with a 5.64 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over a near career-low 157.1 innings, the Yankees did not get what they bargained for by giving up Vizcaino. So they let him walk and wisely did not offer arbitration.
Now there were several teams out there this preseason willing to give Vazquez another chance, given his history, on various one- or two-year deals. Dave Cameron showed us that history indicated it was unlikely for Vazquez's fastball zip to return, and that perhaps we all underestimated the wear-and-tear that over 42,000 pitches and 2,647.1 innings had taken on Vazquez's arm over 13 seasons.
Nonetheless, despite all the red flags, the Marlins were willing to give Vazquez—who wanted to rebuild his stock and felt comfortably familiar with the Marlins organization—a flier on a one-year, $7 million deal that was reportedly lower in both years and money than what other teams were willing to pay.
That history brings us to this season, where Vazquez has produced a 5.64 ERA, a career-worst 1.56 WHIP, and 4.62 xFIP to date in an era where the league average pitcher has an ERA, FIP, and xFIP all in the high threes. This investment has hardly paid off thus far for the Marlins, as Vazquez's strikeout rate (6.25 K/9) has continued to decline, while his walk rate (3.43 BB/9) remains inflated.
Despite all this ugliness and recent history, however, there are several reasons for the Marlins and frugal fantasy owners to find solace in Vazquez in the second half.
First and foremost, Vazquez's velocity (2011 average to date is 89.5 MPH), which is still down below his career rate of 90.9 MPH and his 2005-2009 velocity range, is up from last year. More importantly, however, his fastball velocity has been averaging in the low 90's his past five outings. Recent fastball velocity tends to become relevant and reliable very quickly (after about three outings), so this could be a great sign for Vazquez the rest of the way.
In addition to a rekindled fastball of late, Vazquez also has rediscovered his control over his past 10 outings. Since May 9, Vazquez has tossed 54 innings and only walked 12 batters (and of those 12, only 10 were unintentional) for a walks-per-nine rate of 2.00 on the button. Meanwhile, Vazquez has punched out 46 batter (7.67 K/9) for a 3.83 K/BB rate that accords with Vazquez's 2004-2009 performance.
While walk rates take approximately a year and a half to stabilize, unintentional walk (half a season) and strikeout rates (one-fifth a season) stabilize much faster. Vazquez's full season unintentional walk rate of 2.92 this season is not too far off his career rate of 2.55, and a substantial improvement over last year's disaster rate of 3.89.
Vazquez remains an unashamed flyball pitcher this season (32.2 percent groundball percentage in 2011, 34.9 percent in past 10 years), but if we plug his past 10 starts worth of data into the latest version of the xWHIP Calculator, calibrated to the 2011 run environment, we get a good picture of the quality of his recent performance:
Noting that the eFIP and xWHIP league averages are approximately 4.00 and 1.33, respectively, it is clear that Vazquez has performed substantially more like his former self of late than his season ERA/WHIP or even past 10 starts ERA/WHIP (4.83/1.35) indicate.
Vazquez may not be one of baseball's thirty best pitchers anymore, and thus no longer an ace, but if he can continue his recent performance, a sub-4.00 ERA and strong WHIP with good strikeout totals could be in the cards. And if Hanley Ramirezcontinues to play like his former self as he has of late (past 12 games: 16-for-45, five walks, three HR, one SB, 12 RBI, nine runs), then a healthy wins total could also be coming for the disgraced starter.
Unless you are in a deep (14-plus teams) or NL-only league, chances are that Vazquez is available for free (or a $1 FAAB bid) in your league's free agency pool. While I cannot recommend starting him just yet, he is certainly worth the pickup for your bench and worthy of the type of monitoring that would require a compelling government interest.
Vazquez is likely a matchups-only play at the moment (though it is worth noting that most of his recent ten outings came against offense-heavy teams), but is equally as rosterable as, if not more so than, Rich Harden.
Keep a close eye on Vazquez after the All-Star break. He could be a second-half Josh Beckett- or Bartolo Colon-like value.
Recommendation: Javier Vazquez should be owned in NL-only leagues and at least bench-owned in 12-plus-team mixed leagues. Ten-team mixed leagues can ignore Vazquez for now, but should monitor his next five starts closely.
As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.
All stats current through July 7.
Javier Vazquez | Marlins | SP | 25 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: 5.64 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.25 K/9, 1.82 K/BB, 32.2% GB%
Oliver ROS: 4.29 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.75 K/BB
What a fall from grace Javier Vazquez's steep and sudden decline has been. A notorious and perpetual sabermetric darling for his career, the prototype for Ricky Nolasco always put up great peripherals that never seems to match his surface stats. Some, if not most, of the gap may have been ballpark and defensive effects, however.
From 2004 to 2008, Vazquez, a flyball pitcher by trade, played in some pretty offense-inflating and home run-inflating ball parks in front of some of baseball's poorest defenses. In 2004, he played for the Yankees, who collectively posted a major league-worst team UZR total of -75.9 runs.
The 2005 season was no different, as Vazquez pitched for the third-worst defensive team in baseball, the Diamondbacks, whose -48.8 team UZR hardly offset the environmental effects of a park that used to bolster offense much more half a decade ago than it does now.
And then, of course, Vazquez famously pitched for the White Sox at US Cellular Field, one of baseball's most home run-inflating ballparks, between 2006 and 2008 before the team traded him away for Tyler Flowers and Brent Lillibridge. (Hey, at least it's more than what they got when selling Nick Swisher, who they gave up Gio Gonzalez (again) to acquire).
Though Vazquez had a solid season of results for the Sox in 2007 (15 wins, 3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 213 strikeouts over 216.2 innings pitched), his results overall were largely poor (627 innings of league-average 4.40 ERA baseball) and "unclutch" (-3.80 Clutch rating between 2006 and 2008).
Vazquez's tenure on the White Sox only saw his bad-park, bad-defense meme continue. From 2006 to 2008, perhaps largely because of Jermaine Dye (aka "Life To Flying Things"), the White Sox's -80.5 cumulative team UZR ranked fifth-worst in baseball ahead of only the Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Pirates.
Regardless of the results, from 2004 to 2008 Javier Vazquez's underlying peripheral performance remained strong and ranked well amongst his peers. Not only did his peripherals indicate a better-than-his-results pitcher, but Vazquez was also one of baseball's most durable.
From 2004 to 2008, Vazquez's innings pitched total of 1041.1 ranked ninth overall amongst all pitchers who played at least one game during that span. Only Johan Santana (currently on the DL), Brandon Webb (currently on the DL), Roy Oswalt (currently on the DL), Mark Buehrle, Livan Hernandez, CC Sabathia, Jon Garland (currently on the DL), and Carlos Zambrano (currently on the DL) pitched more innings during that span.
Over those 1041.1 innings, Vazquez punched out 939 batters while only walking 273, for an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.44 (2.00 MLB average). Amongst the 153 pitchers to toss 400 or more innings between 2004 and 2008, Vazquez's 21.4 percent strikeout rate (16.7 percent MLB average) and 8.12 K/9 rate both ranked 18th overall, while his 6.2 percent walk rate (7.6 percent MLB average) was the 29th lowest. His 1.26 WHIP was also 26th-best in the majors.
Despite posting the 34th-worst groundball rate (39.6 percent) amongst this sample of pitchers, Vazquez's nonetheless owned the 27th-lowest xFIP (3.85 xFIP, 87 xFIP-) of those 153 pitchers.
In 2009, then, perhaps it should come as no surprise that Vazquez was one of baseball's best pitchers. Not only did he move from the DH-laden American League to the senior circuit, a move that tends to cause a pitcher's K/9 rate to spike by +0.57, and his ERA to decrease by approximately 0.41, but for the first time in his career, Vazquez was pitching in a offense-neutral park that slightly suppressed home run production in front of a middle-of-the-league defensive team.
As might be expected, Vazquez had a career year, producing a career-best 9.77 K/9 rate, a career second-best 1.81 BB/9 rate, and a career-best xFIP and FIP (both 2.77) that were only slightly below his career-best ERA of 2.87. Vazquez rewarded fantasy owners with 15 wins and career-best 1.03 WHIP.
Among the 130 pitchers who threw 100 or more innings in 2009, no one posted a lower xFIP than Vazquez, not even Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, whose 2.83 xFIP was the only other xFIP in baseball below 3.00 that season. Vazquez's 9.77 K/9 rate ranked sixth-best in the majors amongst all pitchers with 100 innings in 2009, his walk rate was eighth-best, and his 5.41 K/BB ratio was second only to demi-gods Roy Halladay (5.94) and Dan Haren (5.87).
Not to humble brag, but as someone who drafted Yovani Gallardo, Dan Haren, and Vazquez that season (not to mention acquiring Zack Greinke in early April), you can imagine my productive year in fantasy. Alas, I digress.
Not only was Vazquez a great pitcher in 2009, but his 219.1 innings (32 starts) that year continued his legacy of durability. That year marked his 10th consecutive season of 32 or more starts, averaging 216 innings per campaign over that span and failing to top the 200 innings mark only once with a "mere" 198 innings in 2004.
Though 34 years old entering the 2010 season, few, if any, pitchers seemed more durable with better stuffs—especially on the free agent market—and the Yankees took notice. They shipped off quality starting pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino (and Melky Cabrera) to the Braves in order to give Vazquez a second-chance at proving New York and the AL East was not "too tough" a place for him to pitch.
Vazquez's flyball tendencies and New Yankee Stadium's first year home run-happy exhibition indicated that Vazquez was unlikely to duplicate his 2009 success for New York's Bronx Bombers in 2010, but a strikeout rate above eight batters per nine, a sub-4.00 ERA, and top-notch K/BB ratio were to nonetheless be expected. No one could have predicted what happened next, as the wheels to came off—fast. Even Andruw Jones' meteoric fall from grace took a couple of seasons to occur.
Not only did Vazquez's move from the NL back to the AL—and from Turner Field to New Yankee Stadium—cause some regression, but Vazquez completely came apart as a pitcher. His average fastball velocity, which consistently sat between 91.1 MPH and 91.8 MPH from 2005-2009, plummeted to 88.7 MPH in 2010. In only one start, in fact, did Vazquez's fastball even average 90.
Fastball velocity is highly correlated to strikeout rates, ERA, FIP, and batting averages against, so perhaps Vazquez's loss of 2.5 MPH of stink off his cheese (food metaphor!) explains his then-career-low 6.92 K/9 and career-worst FIP/xFIP marks. However, walk rates are not very affected by changes in velocity, so there must have been something else at play, perhaps a hidden injury (Vazquez ultimately did spend time on the DL in 2010) if we are to explain a career-high 3.72 BB/9.
At the least, with a 5.64 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over a near career-low 157.1 innings, the Yankees did not get what they bargained for by giving up Vizcaino. So they let him walk and wisely did not offer arbitration.
Now there were several teams out there this preseason willing to give Vazquez another chance, given his history, on various one- or two-year deals. Dave Cameron showed us that history indicated it was unlikely for Vazquez's fastball zip to return, and that perhaps we all underestimated the wear-and-tear that over 42,000 pitches and 2,647.1 innings had taken on Vazquez's arm over 13 seasons.
Nonetheless, despite all the red flags, the Marlins were willing to give Vazquez—who wanted to rebuild his stock and felt comfortably familiar with the Marlins organization—a flier on a one-year, $7 million deal that was reportedly lower in both years and money than what other teams were willing to pay.
That history brings us to this season, where Vazquez has produced a 5.64 ERA, a career-worst 1.56 WHIP, and 4.62 xFIP to date in an era where the league average pitcher has an ERA, FIP, and xFIP all in the high threes. This investment has hardly paid off thus far for the Marlins, as Vazquez's strikeout rate (6.25 K/9) has continued to decline, while his walk rate (3.43 BB/9) remains inflated.
Despite all this ugliness and recent history, however, there are several reasons for the Marlins and frugal fantasy owners to find solace in Vazquez in the second half.
First and foremost, Vazquez's velocity (2011 average to date is 89.5 MPH), which is still down below his career rate of 90.9 MPH and his 2005-2009 velocity range, is up from last year. More importantly, however, his fastball velocity has been averaging in the low 90's his past five outings. Recent fastball velocity tends to become relevant and reliable very quickly (after about three outings), so this could be a great sign for Vazquez the rest of the way.
In addition to a rekindled fastball of late, Vazquez also has rediscovered his control over his past 10 outings. Since May 9, Vazquez has tossed 54 innings and only walked 12 batters (and of those 12, only 10 were unintentional) for a walks-per-nine rate of 2.00 on the button. Meanwhile, Vazquez has punched out 46 batter (7.67 K/9) for a 3.83 K/BB rate that accords with Vazquez's 2004-2009 performance.
While walk rates take approximately a year and a half to stabilize, unintentional walk (half a season) and strikeout rates (one-fifth a season) stabilize much faster. Vazquez's full season unintentional walk rate of 2.92 this season is not too far off his career rate of 2.55, and a substantial improvement over last year's disaster rate of 3.89.
Vazquez remains an unashamed flyball pitcher this season (32.2 percent groundball percentage in 2011, 34.9 percent in past 10 years), but if we plug his past 10 starts worth of data into the latest version of the xWHIP Calculator, calibrated to the 2011 run environment, we get a good picture of the quality of his recent performance:
Noting that the eFIP and xWHIP league averages are approximately 4.00 and 1.33, respectively, it is clear that Vazquez has performed substantially more like his former self of late than his season ERA/WHIP or even past 10 starts ERA/WHIP (4.83/1.35) indicate.
Vazquez may not be one of baseball's thirty best pitchers anymore, and thus no longer an ace, but if he can continue his recent performance, a sub-4.00 ERA and strong WHIP with good strikeout totals could be in the cards. And if Hanley Ramirezcontinues to play like his former self as he has of late (past 12 games: 16-for-45, five walks, three HR, one SB, 12 RBI, nine runs), then a healthy wins total could also be coming for the disgraced starter.
Unless you are in a deep (14-plus teams) or NL-only league, chances are that Vazquez is available for free (or a $1 FAAB bid) in your league's free agency pool. While I cannot recommend starting him just yet, he is certainly worth the pickup for your bench and worthy of the type of monitoring that would require a compelling government interest.
Vazquez is likely a matchups-only play at the moment (though it is worth noting that most of his recent ten outings came against offense-heavy teams), but is equally as rosterable as, if not more so than, Rich Harden.
Keep a close eye on Vazquez after the All-Star break. He could be a second-half Josh Beckett- or Bartolo Colon-like value.
Recommendation: Javier Vazquez should be owned in NL-only leagues and at least bench-owned in 12-plus-team mixed leagues. Ten-team mixed leagues can ignore Vazquez for now, but should monitor his next five starts closely.
As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.
2011 Home Run Derby Stats
Check out my latest article at The Hardball Times by clicking here. I've tried posting the data/info here, but it will not format properly for our interface. Sorry.
The article is a compilation of break-down statistics of each home run derby contestant's power numbers, home run stats, and a map of what their home numbers would look like at Chase Field.
The article is a compilation of break-down statistics of each home run derby contestant's power numbers, home run stats, and a map of what their home numbers would look like at Chase Field.
Who Deserves To Be An All-Star: 2011 MLB, Part III
You can view Part I, Starting Lineup Edition here
You can view Part II, Pitchers Edition here
Reserves Edition
The first part of this post is who I believe deserves to be an All-Star, independent of team. The second portion will be who I will have to replace because of the archaic notion that every team HAS to be represented in the All-Star game. No other sport has this silly rule and chances are if you are a team like the Baltimore Orioles who are so bad, chances are you do not have an All-Star on your team- that is why your team is doing so bad.
I also believe actually playing the game out is an antiquated notion because we have guys like Omar Infante in 2010 become an All-Star for the main reason that he can play multiple positions defensively and not because he actually deserved to be an All-Star.
AL
C- Carlos Santana (CLE)
1B- Mark Teixeira (NYY)
1B- Miguel Cabrera (DET)
1B- Paul Konerko (CWS)
2B- Ben Zobrist (TAM)
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)
3B- Adrian Beltre (TEX)
OF- Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
OF- Carlos Quentin (CWS)
OF- Matt Joyce (TAM)
OF- Brett Gardner (NYY)
NL
C- Miguel Montero (ARI)
1B- Prince Fielder (MIL)
1B- Gaby Sanchez (FLO)
2B- Danny Espinosa (WAS)
2B- Brandon Phillips (CIN)
SS- Troy Tulowitzki (COL)
3B- Aramis Ramirez (CHC)
OF- Shane Victorino (PHI)
OF- Michael Bourne (HOU)
OF- Carlos Beltran (NYM)
OF- Jay Bruce (CIN)
DH/1B/OF- Lance Berkman (STL)
Unrepresented AL Teams:
- Minnesota Twins
- Baltimore Orioles
- Oakland Athletics
- Replace SP Scott Baker (MIN) with RP Sergio Santos (CWS)
- Replace C Matt Wieters (BAL) with C Carlos Santana (CLE)
- Replace SP Gio Gonzalez (OAK) with SP Josh Beckett (BOS)
Unrepresented NL Teams:
None.
You can view Part II, Pitchers Edition here
Reserves Edition
The first part of this post is who I believe deserves to be an All-Star, independent of team. The second portion will be who I will have to replace because of the archaic notion that every team HAS to be represented in the All-Star game. No other sport has this silly rule and chances are if you are a team like the Baltimore Orioles who are so bad, chances are you do not have an All-Star on your team- that is why your team is doing so bad.
I also believe actually playing the game out is an antiquated notion because we have guys like Omar Infante in 2010 become an All-Star for the main reason that he can play multiple positions defensively and not because he actually deserved to be an All-Star.
AL
C- Carlos Santana (CLE)
1B- Mark Teixeira (NYY)
1B- Miguel Cabrera (DET)
1B- Paul Konerko (CWS)
2B- Ben Zobrist (TAM)
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)
3B- Adrian Beltre (TEX)
OF- Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
OF- Carlos Quentin (CWS)
OF- Matt Joyce (TAM)
OF- Brett Gardner (NYY)
NL
C- Miguel Montero (ARI)
1B- Prince Fielder (MIL)
1B- Gaby Sanchez (FLO)
2B- Danny Espinosa (WAS)
2B- Brandon Phillips (CIN)
SS- Troy Tulowitzki (COL)
3B- Aramis Ramirez (CHC)
OF- Shane Victorino (PHI)
OF- Michael Bourne (HOU)
OF- Carlos Beltran (NYM)
OF- Jay Bruce (CIN)
DH/1B/OF- Lance Berkman (STL)
Unrepresented AL Teams:
- Minnesota Twins
- Baltimore Orioles
- Oakland Athletics
- Replace SP Scott Baker (MIN) with RP Sergio Santos (CWS)
- Replace C Matt Wieters (BAL) with C Carlos Santana (CLE)
- Replace SP Gio Gonzalez (OAK) with SP Josh Beckett (BOS)
Unrepresented NL Teams:
None.
Who Deserves To Be An All-Star: 2011 MLB, Part II
You can view Part I, Starting Lineup Edition here
Pitchers Edition
AL
Starter- Jered Weaver (LAA)
SP- Justin Verlander (DET)
SP- C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
RP- Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
RP- Mariano Rivera (NYY)
RP- Sergio Santos (CWS)
SP- Felix Hernandez (SEA)
SP- C.J. Wilson (TEX)
SP- David Price (TAM)
SP- James Shields (TAM)
SP- Dan Haren (LAA)
SP- Josh Beckett (BOS)
NOTE: I would have no problem replacing Santos with David Robertson (NYY) who leads all AL RP in WAR and K/9 but, what can I say, I'm still old school and believe saves count for more than "regular ol'" middle relief.
NL
Starter- Roy Halladay (PHI)
SP- Cliff Lee (PHI)
SP- Cole Hamels (PHI)
RP- Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
RP- Johnny Venters (ATL)
RP- Carlos Marmol (CHI)
RP- John Axford (MIL)
SP- Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
SP- Tim Lincecum (SFG)
SP- Jordan Zimmerman (WAS)
SP- Anibal Sanchez (FLO)
SP- Tommy Hanson (ATL)
SP- Jair Jurrjens (ATL)
Pitchers Edition
AL
Starter- Jered Weaver (LAA)
SP- Justin Verlander (DET)
SP- C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
RP- Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
RP- Mariano Rivera (NYY)
RP- Sergio Santos (CWS)
SP- Felix Hernandez (SEA)
SP- C.J. Wilson (TEX)
SP- David Price (TAM)
SP- James Shields (TAM)
SP- Dan Haren (LAA)
SP- Josh Beckett (BOS)
NOTE: I would have no problem replacing Santos with David Robertson (NYY) who leads all AL RP in WAR and K/9 but, what can I say, I'm still old school and believe saves count for more than "regular ol'" middle relief.
NL
Starter- Roy Halladay (PHI)
SP- Cliff Lee (PHI)
SP- Cole Hamels (PHI)
RP- Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
RP- Johnny Venters (ATL)
RP- Carlos Marmol (CHI)
RP- John Axford (MIL)
SP- Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
SP- Tim Lincecum (SFG)
SP- Jordan Zimmerman (WAS)
SP- Anibal Sanchez (FLO)
SP- Tommy Hanson (ATL)
SP- Jair Jurrjens (ATL)
Who Deserves To Be An All-Star: 2011 MLB, Part I
This post is dedicated to who I think should the starters for both the AL and NL.
But before I begin, I would just like to go off an a quick rant about my boy Paul Konerko. Currently he has a triple slash line of .319/.390/.569 good for a .959 OPS and a .407 wOBA and a 2.3 WAR. He has the 3rd best wOBA among AL first basemen, the second best ISO among AL first basemen and the second most home runs among first basemen. I understand AL first base is deep with A-Gon, Miggy, and Tex doing amazing, but leaving Paulie off is just ridiculous. I would personally take Paulie over David Ortiz and especially Josh Hamilton. I would even take Paulie over the lone White Sox representative- Carlos Quentin.
Also, fuck Derek Jeter. He fucking blows this year and is done. Let him get six more hits and then let him retire.
Here are the AL starters:
C- Alex Avila (DET)
1B- Adrian Gonzalez (BOS)
2B- Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
SS- Jhonny Peralta (DET)
3B- Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
RF- Jose Bautista (TOR)
CF- Curtis Granderson (NYY)
LF- Alex Gordon (KAN)
DH- David Ortiz (BOS)
The voters really didn't do a half bad job this year. Sure Jeter blows and Josh Hamilton only has five hme runs and has missed half the season, but kudos to the voters for getting Bautista and Avila correct.
NL Starters
C- Brian McCann (ATL)
1B- Joey Votto (CIN)
2B- Rickie Weeks (MIL)
SS- Jose Reyes (NYM)
3B- Chase Headley (SDP)
RF- Justin Upton (ARI)
CF- Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
LF- Ryan Braun (MIL)
DH- Matt Kemp (LAD)
I give the edge to Votto over Fielder because Votto's a much better defender and has a better WAR. Headley leads all NL 3B in wOBA and WAR but overall an extremely weak NL 3B class.
Coming Up Next: AL and NL Pitchers
But before I begin, I would just like to go off an a quick rant about my boy Paul Konerko. Currently he has a triple slash line of .319/.390/.569 good for a .959 OPS and a .407 wOBA and a 2.3 WAR. He has the 3rd best wOBA among AL first basemen, the second best ISO among AL first basemen and the second most home runs among first basemen. I understand AL first base is deep with A-Gon, Miggy, and Tex doing amazing, but leaving Paulie off is just ridiculous. I would personally take Paulie over David Ortiz and especially Josh Hamilton. I would even take Paulie over the lone White Sox representative- Carlos Quentin.
Also, fuck Derek Jeter. He fucking blows this year and is done. Let him get six more hits and then let him retire.
Here are the AL starters:
C- Alex Avila (DET)
1B- Adrian Gonzalez (BOS)
2B- Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
SS- Jhonny Peralta (DET)
3B- Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
RF- Jose Bautista (TOR)
CF- Curtis Granderson (NYY)
LF- Alex Gordon (KAN)
DH- David Ortiz (BOS)
The voters really didn't do a half bad job this year. Sure Jeter blows and Josh Hamilton only has five hme runs and has missed half the season, but kudos to the voters for getting Bautista and Avila correct.
NL Starters
C- Brian McCann (ATL)
1B- Joey Votto (CIN)
2B- Rickie Weeks (MIL)
SS- Jose Reyes (NYM)
3B- Chase Headley (SDP)
RF- Justin Upton (ARI)
CF- Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
LF- Ryan Braun (MIL)
DH- Matt Kemp (LAD)
I give the edge to Votto over Fielder because Votto's a much better defender and has a better WAR. Headley leads all NL 3B in wOBA and WAR but overall an extremely weak NL 3B class.
Coming Up Next: AL and NL Pitchers
FAAB Budgets and the Discount Factor
The following comes from my latest article for The Hardball Times.
Every year, big names fall on the waiver wire. Be it a prospect call-up, a frustrated owner prematurely cutting ties (e.g., what I did with Madison Bumgarner this year), a move of desperation in light of shallow benches and deep injuries (e.g., the "perfect storm" league where I own Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, David Wright, Pablo Sandoval, Jason Heyward, Ike Davis, Brandon Beachy, Josh Johnson and former DL pains Brian Matusz and Geovany Soto, or some other occurrence, an economic game of how much to spend on whom and when inevitably results.
So how much do you spend on Eric Hosmer, an early elite prospect call-up? Or Jerry Sands, a supposed impact player of a less-elite level? Or what do you do if Anthony Rizzo and Mike Moustakas are both sitting on waivers after their call-ups last week (some leagues play where you cannot own or bid on a player until they have one game under their belt)? Do you wait for Brett Lawrie and Dustin Ackley?
The answer is never a clear one, and I cannot give you a simple answer. FAAB bid recommendations are a lot like snowflakes. Value is infinitely complex and unique, and it depends on the size of the league (12 teams? Five outfielders?), the format of the league (mixed? AL-only?), the depth of benches and DL spots, and your team's current standing in your league.
What I can tell you, however, is that the timing of the FAAB bid makes a major impact on the expected return of the player, and that timing is rarely considered a factor.
One of the more distinct concepts I can still recall from my days as an undergrad studying economics is the discount factor. Put simply, a discount factor, often an interest rate, accounts for the difference between present and future value. A dollar now is never (okay, maybe almost never, as deflation/stagflation does exist sometimes) worth a dollar in the future.
Let's say, for example, the bank pays five percent interest on your CD account, and that you can open a CD account with any balance. If you begin in year N with X amount of money, and you put that money in the beginning of year N into that CD account, it will grow in value to X*1.05 dollars. In other words, the future value of X is 1.05X.
Conversely, we can evaluate the value of future money now by looking at the same interest rate. Instead, suppose that you will have Y dollar in the future, say because of an impending lawsuit settlement. You cannot have the money from the source now, but will have to wait one year.
If you want to figure out either how much money you would need now to attain Y in one year by putting said money into the CD account noted above (or alternatively how much you should sell the rights to collect on your settlement for), you just need to do the math from above in reverse. If present value (P) times interest rate (R, here five percent) equals future value (again, Y), then Y = 1.05P, or the present value is Y/1.05.
As you will notice, with the denominator being larger than one, present value is lower than the future value. That may seem simple enough, but it is a powerful thing to note that is often ignored in trading and FAAB budgets.
It is to say, alternatively, that a transaction worth Z today is more valuable than a transaction worth Z in the future; that trading for Prince Fielder today is more valuable than doing so in two weeks, and that bidding on Hosmer now is better than bidding the same amount on Anthony Rizzo in the future, even if you think both players are equally valued.
So what does this all mean? It means that shelling out FAAB money on Hosmer in the beginning of May is more valuable than shelling out a similar sum on Rizzo in the beginning of June. The season is only 162 games long, and every day you wait, your opportunity cost is approximately 0.6 percent of potential value.
This 0.6 percent figure could and should be thought of as a discount rate applied to a player's expected production in evaluating FAAB money. It means that a worse player today could be worth more than, or equal value to, a better player who will not be on waivers until some period in the future.
Let's use Rizzo and Hosmer as an example in comparative bidding, and begin by assuming that the two are roughly equal in rate value (production per game). Both are highly-touted, power-hitting prospects that play in offense-suppressing parks with comparable-enough 2010-2011 minor league numbers.
Hosmer was called up about 35 days earlier than Rizzo. If each player, over a comparable sample of plate appearances, is roughly equal to X dollars of production, Rizzo's late call-up induces a penalty value of -15.4 percent. In other words, if you think Rizzo is worth a FAAB bid of X, then your bid on Hosmer should be approximately 15 percent larger than what you would bid on Rizzo.
As the expected waiver pool thins, there is also a scarcity premium that should be considered. Imagine that by the All-Star Break, all of Domonic Brown, Hosmer, Rizzo, Moustakas, Ackley, and Desmond Jennings have been called up.
That could leave Lawrie as the lone "impact" hitting prospect of great consideration that you can count on to be on the big league roster getting a healthy series of playing time. If Lawrie is worth X to you at his call up time, then you better bet more than X, particularly if it is a hard-to-fill position like second, shortstop or third.
This might all seem simple in form, but timing truly is an overlooked value concept in fantasy baseball, where we preach patience.
On one hand, we say "ride out his slump" and caution blowing all your FAAB budget on the first day of the season to acquire a huge prospect like Heyward or Michael Pineda. On the other hand, as noted above, every day you wait is another day the impact of the move you seek to make loses some gravity of impact.
A lot of owners bid conservatively on Hosmer in my leagues, whom I won on every FAAB bet I could place for under $70, because, as they relayed to me, why overbid now when there are comparably valuable players looming out there, some who play premium positions, such as Rizzo, Moustakas, Lawrie, and Ackley (who, in my eyes, is just Kelly Johnson with less power and a bit more batting average). "Why throw away $70 on Hosmer when I know I can probably win Rizzo for less?" one owner relayed to me.
The answer is all of the things I have said above. With Hosmer off the board, there is one less prospective impact player on the waiver wire. You also get Hosmer, even if inferior to Rizzo, a whole month earlier. Particularly if you were employing Luke Scott or Ike Davis at first entering May, having Hosmer today over Rizzo in the future could mean the difference between a league title and another disappointing finish.
Every year, big names fall on the waiver wire. Be it a prospect call-up, a frustrated owner prematurely cutting ties (e.g., what I did with Madison Bumgarner this year), a move of desperation in light of shallow benches and deep injuries (e.g., the "perfect storm" league where I own Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, David Wright, Pablo Sandoval, Jason Heyward, Ike Davis, Brandon Beachy, Josh Johnson and former DL pains Brian Matusz and Geovany Soto, or some other occurrence, an economic game of how much to spend on whom and when inevitably results.
So how much do you spend on Eric Hosmer, an early elite prospect call-up? Or Jerry Sands, a supposed impact player of a less-elite level? Or what do you do if Anthony Rizzo and Mike Moustakas are both sitting on waivers after their call-ups last week (some leagues play where you cannot own or bid on a player until they have one game under their belt)? Do you wait for Brett Lawrie and Dustin Ackley?
The answer is never a clear one, and I cannot give you a simple answer. FAAB bid recommendations are a lot like snowflakes. Value is infinitely complex and unique, and it depends on the size of the league (12 teams? Five outfielders?), the format of the league (mixed? AL-only?), the depth of benches and DL spots, and your team's current standing in your league.
What I can tell you, however, is that the timing of the FAAB bid makes a major impact on the expected return of the player, and that timing is rarely considered a factor.
One of the more distinct concepts I can still recall from my days as an undergrad studying economics is the discount factor. Put simply, a discount factor, often an interest rate, accounts for the difference between present and future value. A dollar now is never (okay, maybe almost never, as deflation/stagflation does exist sometimes) worth a dollar in the future.
Let's say, for example, the bank pays five percent interest on your CD account, and that you can open a CD account with any balance. If you begin in year N with X amount of money, and you put that money in the beginning of year N into that CD account, it will grow in value to X*1.05 dollars. In other words, the future value of X is 1.05X.
Conversely, we can evaluate the value of future money now by looking at the same interest rate. Instead, suppose that you will have Y dollar in the future, say because of an impending lawsuit settlement. You cannot have the money from the source now, but will have to wait one year.
If you want to figure out either how much money you would need now to attain Y in one year by putting said money into the CD account noted above (or alternatively how much you should sell the rights to collect on your settlement for), you just need to do the math from above in reverse. If present value (P) times interest rate (R, here five percent) equals future value (again, Y), then Y = 1.05P, or the present value is Y/1.05.
As you will notice, with the denominator being larger than one, present value is lower than the future value. That may seem simple enough, but it is a powerful thing to note that is often ignored in trading and FAAB budgets.
It is to say, alternatively, that a transaction worth Z today is more valuable than a transaction worth Z in the future; that trading for Prince Fielder today is more valuable than doing so in two weeks, and that bidding on Hosmer now is better than bidding the same amount on Anthony Rizzo in the future, even if you think both players are equally valued.
So what does this all mean? It means that shelling out FAAB money on Hosmer in the beginning of May is more valuable than shelling out a similar sum on Rizzo in the beginning of June. The season is only 162 games long, and every day you wait, your opportunity cost is approximately 0.6 percent of potential value.
This 0.6 percent figure could and should be thought of as a discount rate applied to a player's expected production in evaluating FAAB money. It means that a worse player today could be worth more than, or equal value to, a better player who will not be on waivers until some period in the future.
Let's use Rizzo and Hosmer as an example in comparative bidding, and begin by assuming that the two are roughly equal in rate value (production per game). Both are highly-touted, power-hitting prospects that play in offense-suppressing parks with comparable-enough 2010-2011 minor league numbers.
Hosmer was called up about 35 days earlier than Rizzo. If each player, over a comparable sample of plate appearances, is roughly equal to X dollars of production, Rizzo's late call-up induces a penalty value of -15.4 percent. In other words, if you think Rizzo is worth a FAAB bid of X, then your bid on Hosmer should be approximately 15 percent larger than what you would bid on Rizzo.
As the expected waiver pool thins, there is also a scarcity premium that should be considered. Imagine that by the All-Star Break, all of Domonic Brown, Hosmer, Rizzo, Moustakas, Ackley, and Desmond Jennings have been called up.
That could leave Lawrie as the lone "impact" hitting prospect of great consideration that you can count on to be on the big league roster getting a healthy series of playing time. If Lawrie is worth X to you at his call up time, then you better bet more than X, particularly if it is a hard-to-fill position like second, shortstop or third.
This might all seem simple in form, but timing truly is an overlooked value concept in fantasy baseball, where we preach patience.
On one hand, we say "ride out his slump" and caution blowing all your FAAB budget on the first day of the season to acquire a huge prospect like Heyward or Michael Pineda. On the other hand, as noted above, every day you wait is another day the impact of the move you seek to make loses some gravity of impact.
A lot of owners bid conservatively on Hosmer in my leagues, whom I won on every FAAB bet I could place for under $70, because, as they relayed to me, why overbid now when there are comparably valuable players looming out there, some who play premium positions, such as Rizzo, Moustakas, Lawrie, and Ackley (who, in my eyes, is just Kelly Johnson with less power and a bit more batting average). "Why throw away $70 on Hosmer when I know I can probably win Rizzo for less?" one owner relayed to me.
The answer is all of the things I have said above. With Hosmer off the board, there is one less prospective impact player on the waiver wire. You also get Hosmer, even if inferior to Rizzo, a whole month earlier. Particularly if you were employing Luke Scott or Ike Davis at first entering May, having Hosmer today over Rizzo in the future could mean the difference between a league title and another disappointing finish.
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings- Quarterbacks
Sure, there might be a lock out for the NFL. Sure, we might not have a football season. Sure, I might be relegated to playing fantasy basketball and/or fantasy college football this fall (or even worse… fantasy hockey). But that's not stopping us here at GOI from fantasizing about fantasy football. Today, in my mother's basement (because we're bloggers so of course we blog from my mom's basement) Cubsfan, The 'Bright' One and myself got together for our own fantasy rankings summit. Individually we came up with our own lists for each of the four major positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and then I have compiled a composite list for the site.
This is currently a first draft. The biggest factor that will change all of our rankings is free agency. For the most part we assumed free agents will stay with their current teams. There are some players that we assumed will be leaving their current team, but for the most part we ranked players based on where they played in 2010. Preseason (if there is one) and injuries will also most certainly affect out rankings, but for right now. Here are our lists.
This is our final installment in our four part series. Each day for the next consecutive days GOI will post our lists for a particular position. This post is obviously dedicated to Quarterbacks.
COMPISITE RANKINGS (Player / Average Rank)
1) Michael Vick (PHI) | 1.67 |
1) Aaron Rodgers (GB) | 1.67 |
3) Drew Brees (NO) | 3.67 |
3) Peyton Manning (IND) | 3.67 |
5) Philip Rivers (SD) | 5.00 |
6) Tom Brady (NE) | 5.33 |
7) Tony Romo (DAL) | 7.00 |
8) Matt Schaub (HOU) | 8.00 |
9) Matt Ryan (ATL) | 9.67 |
9) Josh Freeman (TAM) | 9.67 |
11) Sam Bradford (STL) | 11.67 |
12) Jay Cutler (CHI) | 12.33 |
13) Joe Flacco (BAL) | 12.67 |
14) Ben Roethlisberger | 13.00 |
15) Eli Manning (NYG) | 15.00 |
16) Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) | 17.00 |
17) Matthew Stafford (DET) | 17.67 |
18) David Garrard (JAX) | 18.33 |
19) Tim Tebow (DEN) | 19.00 |
20) Matt Cassel | ------ |
Sexy Rexy | Cubsfan | The 'Bright' One |
1) Michael Vick (PHI) | 1) Aaron Rodgers (GB) | 1) Michael Vick (PHI) |
2) Aaron Rodgers (GB) | 2) Peyton Manning (IND) | 2) Aaron Rodgers (GB) |
3) Philip Rivers (SD) | 3) Michael Vick (PHI) | 3) Drew Brees (NO) |
4) Drew Brees (NO) | 4) Drew Brees (NO) | 4) Peyton Manning (IND) |
5) Peyton Manning (IND) | 5) Tom Brady (NE) | 5) Tom Brady (NE) |
6) Tom Brady (NE) | 6) Philip Rivers (SD) | 6) Philip Rivers (SD) |
7) Tony Romo (DAL) | 7) Tony Romo (DAL) | 7) Tony Romo (DAL) |
8) Matt Schaub (HOU) | 8) Matt Schaub (HOU) | 8) Matt Schaub (HOU) |
9) Josh Freeman (TAM) | 9) Matt Ryan (ATL) | 9) Matt Ryan (ATL) |
10) Sam Bradford (STL) | 10) Josh Freeman (TAM) | 10) Josh Freeman (TAM) |
11) Matt Ryan (ATL) | 11) Sam Bradford (STL) | 11) Jay Cutler (CHI) |
12) Jay Cutler (CHI) | 12) Joe Flacco (BAL) | 12) Joe Flacco (BAL) |
13) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) | 13) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) | 13) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) |
14) Joe Flacco (BAL) | 14) Jay Cutler (CHI) | 14) Sam Bradford (STL) |
15) Eli Manning (NYG) | 15) Eli Manning (NYG) | 15) Eli Manning (NYG) |
16) Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) | 16) Matthew Stafford (DET) | 16) Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUUF) |
17) Matt Cassel (KC) | 17) Matt Cassel (KC) | 17) David Garrard (JAX) |
18) Tim Tebow (DEN) | 18) David Garrard (JAX) | 18) Matthew Stafford (DET) |
19) Matthew Stafford (DET) | 19) Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) | 19) Tim Tebow (DEN) |
20) David Garrard (JAX) | 20) Tim Tebow (DEN) | 20) Mark Sanchez (NYJ) |
HR/OFFB% Park Factors
The following comes from my latest post on The Hardball Times. Because of the width of our site, to get 4-year home run per FLYBALL park factors, you'll have to go to my above link to THT.
A couple of years ago, former THT writer Dan Turkenkopf tabulated an index of single-season (2009) and four-year home run per fly ball (HR/FB) park factors. I have griped plenty about using HR/FB rates over home run per outfield fly ball (HR/OFFB) rates in tabulating xFIP many times in the past, most recently last week, because HR/FB rates include pop-ups (IFFB), which can never be home runs. The data, over large samples, may be insignificant in difference overall, but why use bad data and skew the margins? It's like Fangraphs' incomprehensible decision to use strikeouts per at-bat (K/AB) instead of strikeouts per plate appearance (K/PA) to calculate strikeout percentage*. (Dave Cameron has indicated that recalibrating Fangraphs' database would likely be a cumbersome process.)
*Here are two examples why Fangraphs' K% calculations, done as K/AB, make no sense. First, assume player X has a particular K/PA in year N. In year N+1, he maintains the same K/PA rate, but increases his walk rate. Though his K/PA remains stable, Fangraphs would report his K% as having "increased," imparting negative stigma and poor analysis by persons who are not aware that K%, not on the same scale as BB% (calculated as BB/PA), does not per se indicate actual strikeout skill. Likewise, players with higher walk rates exhibit disproportionately high strikeout rates.
Ryan Howard, for example, has a career K% of 31.9 percent on Fangraphs, but has only struck out in 27.5 percent of his total plate appearances. For Howard, who strikes out a lot, this may not matter or make much of a difference if you analyze him, but for a player like Prince Fielder (career 22.1 percent K%), it does. Fielder has struck out in only 18.6 percent of his total plate appearances. On the surface, it would seem as though Brennan Boesch (20.4 percent K%) and Ryan Braun (20.5 percent K%) are "noticeably" better at avoiding strike three, but are in reality substantially the same, owning respective K/PA rates of 18.1 and 18.4 percent for their careers.
Other high walk "strikeout" sluggers, such as Geovany Soto, have K/PA rates that are lower than low-walk players with lower K% rates. Some say "well you can't strike out in a walk, so why use plate appearances in the denominator," but you also can't strike out in a hit or walk in a strikeout, and yet we accept plate appearances as the denominator for walk rate (BB%). Plus, just logically, shouldn't K% represent how likely a player is to strike out when he comes to the plate? Why make Shin-Shoo Choo's year-to-year K% like comparing apples to oranges because of a fluctuating walk rate?
Particularly where your data has an abnormal pop-up rate, HR/FB-tabulated xFIP loses a lot of its value. In fields like Oakland where there is a lot of foul territory, and in parks like Wrigley, where there is practically none, the differences in HR/FB and HR/OFFB rates might make a difference. The difference may be a couple of home runs at most (park factors only apply, in theory, in a half-step, as a player's expected number of home games is just 50 percent), but in a game of inches, such could affect Z-Scores, data distribution, etc. If memory served, HR/OFFB has also shown to be less volatile year-to-year than HR/FB.
Because I have such a penchant for HR/OFFB-based calculations, including them as a data point in my xWHIP Calculator, I asked a favor of Dan, who has in turn tabulated an index of HR/OFFB rates by ballpark using data from 2006-2009. We did not have the necessary 2010 data offhand to tabulate 2007-2010 rates, but hopefully this offseason we will be able to plug in 2008-2011 data for a fresher version of these numbers.
As with Dan's 2009 post on HR/FB park factors, certain parks have less data, are weighted similarly (but without the same old data to affect the weights), and may not be as reliable. The data below regards old Twins Stadium (the Metrodome), while the Mets' and the Yankees' Park Factors are from one season only. The Nationals' Park Factor also only uses two seasons worth of data, and is weighted at 5 and 3. All other parks feature four-year weighed factors of 5,3,2,1.
Without further ado, here is the goldmine of data you've probably always wanted, but never had (at least not that I was aware of) until now, ranked from most-to-least home run inflating per outfield fly:
Thanks again to Dan Turkenkopf for crunching the numbers for me. As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.
A couple of years ago, former THT writer Dan Turkenkopf tabulated an index of single-season (2009) and four-year home run per fly ball (HR/FB) park factors. I have griped plenty about using HR/FB rates over home run per outfield fly ball (HR/OFFB) rates in tabulating xFIP many times in the past, most recently last week, because HR/FB rates include pop-ups (IFFB), which can never be home runs. The data, over large samples, may be insignificant in difference overall, but why use bad data and skew the margins? It's like Fangraphs' incomprehensible decision to use strikeouts per at-bat (K/AB) instead of strikeouts per plate appearance (K/PA) to calculate strikeout percentage*. (Dave Cameron has indicated that recalibrating Fangraphs' database would likely be a cumbersome process.)
*Here are two examples why Fangraphs' K% calculations, done as K/AB, make no sense. First, assume player X has a particular K/PA in year N. In year N+1, he maintains the same K/PA rate, but increases his walk rate. Though his K/PA remains stable, Fangraphs would report his K% as having "increased," imparting negative stigma and poor analysis by persons who are not aware that K%, not on the same scale as BB% (calculated as BB/PA), does not per se indicate actual strikeout skill. Likewise, players with higher walk rates exhibit disproportionately high strikeout rates.
Ryan Howard, for example, has a career K% of 31.9 percent on Fangraphs, but has only struck out in 27.5 percent of his total plate appearances. For Howard, who strikes out a lot, this may not matter or make much of a difference if you analyze him, but for a player like Prince Fielder (career 22.1 percent K%), it does. Fielder has struck out in only 18.6 percent of his total plate appearances. On the surface, it would seem as though Brennan Boesch (20.4 percent K%) and Ryan Braun (20.5 percent K%) are "noticeably" better at avoiding strike three, but are in reality substantially the same, owning respective K/PA rates of 18.1 and 18.4 percent for their careers.
Other high walk "strikeout" sluggers, such as Geovany Soto, have K/PA rates that are lower than low-walk players with lower K% rates. Some say "well you can't strike out in a walk, so why use plate appearances in the denominator," but you also can't strike out in a hit or walk in a strikeout, and yet we accept plate appearances as the denominator for walk rate (BB%). Plus, just logically, shouldn't K% represent how likely a player is to strike out when he comes to the plate? Why make Shin-Shoo Choo's year-to-year K% like comparing apples to oranges because of a fluctuating walk rate?
Particularly where your data has an abnormal pop-up rate, HR/FB-tabulated xFIP loses a lot of its value. In fields like Oakland where there is a lot of foul territory, and in parks like Wrigley, where there is practically none, the differences in HR/FB and HR/OFFB rates might make a difference. The difference may be a couple of home runs at most (park factors only apply, in theory, in a half-step, as a player's expected number of home games is just 50 percent), but in a game of inches, such could affect Z-Scores, data distribution, etc. If memory served, HR/OFFB has also shown to be less volatile year-to-year than HR/FB.
Because I have such a penchant for HR/OFFB-based calculations, including them as a data point in my xWHIP Calculator, I asked a favor of Dan, who has in turn tabulated an index of HR/OFFB rates by ballpark using data from 2006-2009. We did not have the necessary 2010 data offhand to tabulate 2007-2010 rates, but hopefully this offseason we will be able to plug in 2008-2011 data for a fresher version of these numbers.
As with Dan's 2009 post on HR/FB park factors, certain parks have less data, are weighted similarly (but without the same old data to affect the weights), and may not be as reliable. The data below regards old Twins Stadium (the Metrodome), while the Mets' and the Yankees' Park Factors are from one season only. The Nationals' Park Factor also only uses two seasons worth of data, and is weighted at 5 and 3. All other parks feature four-year weighed factors of 5,3,2,1.
Without further ado, here is the goldmine of data you've probably always wanted, but never had (at least not that I was aware of) until now, ranked from most-to-least home run inflating per outfield fly:
Team Park LG 4-Year HR/OFFB
Yankees New Yankee Stadium AL 120
Reds Great American Ballpark NL 116
Rays Tropicana Field AL 114
Orioles Oriole Park at Camden Yards AL 113
White Sox US Cellular Field AL 113
Rockies Coors Field NL 111
Astros Minute Maid Park NL 110
Brewers Miller Park NL 108
Marlins Dolphins Stadium NL 108
Blue Jays Rogers Centre AL 107
Cubs Wrigley Field NL 104
Mets Citi Field NL 104
Angels Angel Stadium AL 102
Diamondbacks Chase Field NL 100
Rangers The Ballpark at Arlington AL 98
Giants Pacific Bell Park NL 97
Red Sox Fenway Park AL 97
Tigers Comerica Park AL 96
Phillies Citizens Bank Park NL 93
Pirates PNC Park NL 93
Athletics McAfee Colisuem AL 92
Dodgers Dodger Stadium NL 92
Mariners Safeco Park AL 92
Braves Turner Field NL 91
Nationals Nationals Stadium NL 91
Twins Metrodome AL 88
Indians Jacobs Field AL 87
Royals Kaufman Stadium AL 86
Padres PETCO Park NL 79
Cardinals Busch Stadium NL 76
Thanks again to Dan Turkenkopf for crunching the numbers for me. As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.
2011 Fantasy Football Rankings- Running Backs
Sure, there might be a lock out for the NFL. Sure, we might not have a football season. Sure, I might be relegated to playing fantasy basketball and/or fantasy college football this fall (or even worse… fantasy hockey). But that's not stopping us here at GOI from fantasizing about fantasy football. Today, in my mother's basement (because we're bloggers so of course we blog from my mom's basement) Cubsfan, The 'Bright' One and myself got together for our own fantasy rankings summit. Individually we came up with our own lists for each of the four major positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and then I have compiled a composite list for the site.
This is currently a first draft. The biggest factor that will change all of our rankings is free agency. For the most part we assumed free agents will stay with their current teams. There are some players that we assumed will be leaving their current team, but for the most part we ranked players based on where they played in 2010. Preseason (if there is one) and injuries will also most certainly affect out rankings, but for right now. Here are our lists.
This is our third set in our four part series. Each day for the next consecutive days GOI will post our lists for a particular position. This post is obviously dedicated to Running Backs.
The 'Bright' One did not create lists coming into the summit and reluctantly created partial lists for wide outs and running backs during the discussion so his list is currently not as complete as Sexy Rexy's and Cubsfan's lists
COMPISITE RANKINGS (Player / Average Rank)
1) Adrian Peterson (MIN) | 1.00 |
2) Chris Johnson (TEN) | 2.33 |
3) Arian Foster (HOU) | 2.67 |
4) Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) | 5.33 |
4) LeSean McCoy (PHI) | 5.33 |
6) Jamaal Charles (KC) | 6.00 |
7) Michael Turner (ATL) | 7.00 |
8) Ray Rice (BAL) | 8.00 |
9) Frank Gore (SF) | 9.67 |
10) Darren McFadden (OAK) | 10.33 |
11) Peyton Hillis (CLE) | 12.00 |
12) Steven Jackson (STL) | 12.33 |
13) Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) | 12.67 |
14) Ryan Grant (GB) | 14.67 |
15) DeAngelo Williams (CAR / FA) | 15.00 |
16) Matt Forte (CHI) | 15.00 |
17) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG / FA) | 15.33 |
18) LaGarette Blount (TAM) | 17.33 |
19) Ryan Matthews (SD) | 19.00 |
20) Cedric Benson (CIN / FA) | 19.67 |
21) Knowshon Moreno (DEN) | 21.33 |
22) Jonathan Stewart (CAR) | 22.67 |
23) Shonn Green (NYJ) | 23.00 |
24) Felix Jones (DAL) | 25.00 |
25) Mark Ingram (NO) | 26.50 |
26) Mikel LaShoure (DET) | 27.50 |
27) Fred Jackson (BUF) | 28.00 |
28) Ryan Torain (WAS) | 28.00 |
29) Marshawn Lynch (SEA) | 28.00 |
30) Brandon Jacobs (NYG) | 28.33 |
31) Pierre Thomas (NO) | 29.50 |
32) Ronnie Brown (MIA / FA) | 31.33 |
33) Michael Bush (OAK / FA) | 33.00 |
34) C.J. Spiller (BUF) | 33.33 |
35) Joseph Addai (IND / FA) | 33.50 |
36) Thomas Jones (KC) | 33.67 |
37) BenJarvis Green-Ellis | 33.67 |
38) Tim Hightower (ARI) | 35.50 |
39) Marion Barber (DAL) | 37.00 |
40) LaDanian Tomlinson (NYJ) | 37.50 |
41) Matt Tolbert (SD) | 41.50 |
42) Jahvid Best (DET) | 42.50 |
Sexy Rexy | Cubsfan | The 'Bright' One |
1) Adrian Peterson (MIN) | 1) Adrian Peterson (MIN) | 1) Adrian Peterson (MIN) |
2) Arian Foster (HOU) | 2) Chris Johnson (TEN) | 2) Chris Johnson (TEN) |
3) Chris Johnson (TEN) | 3) Arian Foster (HOU) | 3) Arian Foster (HOU) |
4) Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) | 4) Jamaal Charles (KC) | 4) Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) |
5) LeSean McCoy (PHI) | 5) Ray Rice (BAL) | 5) LeSean McCoy (PHI) |
6) Peyton Hillis (CLE) | 6) LeSean McCoy (PHI) | 6) Michael Turner (ATL) |
7) Jamaal Charles (KC) | 7) Michael Turner (ATL) | 7) Jamaal Charles (KC) |
8) Michael Turner (ATL) | 8) Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) | 8) Ray Rice (BAL) |
9) Frank Gore (SF) | 9) Steven Jackson (STL) | 9) Darren McFadden (OAK) |
10) Darren McFadden (OAK) | 10) Frank Gore (SF) | 10) Frank Gore (SF) |
11) Ray Rice (BAL) | 11) Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) | 11) Peyton Hillis (CLE) |
12) Ryan Grant (GB) | 12) Darren McFadden (OAK) | 12) Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) |
13) DeAngelo Williams (CAR / FA) | 13) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG / FA) | 13) Matt Forte (CHI) |
14) Steven Jackson (STL) | 14) LaGarrette Blount (TAM) | 14) Steven Jackson (STL) |
15) Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) | 15) Ryan Grant (GB) | 15) DeAngelo Williams (CAR / FA) |
16) Matt Forte (CHI) | 16) Matt Forte (CHI) | 16) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG / FA) |
17) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG / FA) | 17) DeAngelo Williams (CAR / FA) | 17) Ryan Grant (GB) |
18) LeGarrette Blount (TAM) | 18) Ryan Matthews (SD) | 18) Cedric Benson (CIN / FA) |
19) Knowshon Moreno (DEN) | 19) Peyton Hillis (CLE) | 19) Ryan Matthews (SD) |
20) Ryan Matthews (SD) | 20) Cedric Benson (CIN / FA) | 20) LaGarrette Blount (TAM) |
21) Cedric Benson (CIN / FA) | 21)Shonn Greene (NYJ) | 21) Felix Jones (DAL) |
22) Shonn Greene (NYJ) | 22) Jonathan Stewart (CAR) | 22) Knowshon Moreno (DEN) |
23) Jonathan Stewart (CAR) | 23) Knowshon Moreno (DEN) | 23) Jonathan Stewart (CAR) |
24) Fred Jackson (BUF) | 24) Mark Ingram (NO) | 24) Ronnie Brown (MIA) |
25) Felix Jones (DAL) | 25) Marshawn Lynch (SEA) | 25) C.J. Spiller (BUF) |
26) Pierre Thomas (NO) | 26) Ryan Torain (WAS) | 26) Shonn Greene (NYJ) |
27) Brandon Jacobs (NYG) | 27) Mikel LeShoure (DET) | 27) Michael Bush (OAK) |
28) Mikel LeShoure (DET) | 28) Brandon Jacobs (NYG) | 28) BenJarvis Green-Ellis (NE) |
29) Mark Ingram (NO) | 29) Felix Jones (DAL) | 29) Thomas Jones (KC) |
30) Ryan Torain (WAS) | 30) Tim Hightower (ARI) | 30) Brandon Jacobs (NYG) |
31) Marshawn Lynch (SEA) | 31) BenJarvis Green-Ellis (NE) | |
32) Ryan Williams (ARI) | 32) Fred Jackson (BUF) | |
33) Jospeh Addai (IND) | 33) Pierre Thomas (NO) | |
34) Marion Barber (DAL) | 34) Joseph Addai (IND) | |
35) Ronnie Brown (MIA) | 35) Ronnie Brown (MIA) | |
36) Thomas Jones (KC) | 36) Thomas Jones (KC) | |
37) LaDanian Tomlinson (NYJ) | 37) C.J. Spiller (BUF) | |
38) C.J. Spiller (BUF) | 38) LaDanian Tomlinson (NYJ) | |
39) Danny Woodhead (NE) | 39) Michael Bush (OAK) | |
40) Matt Tolbert (SD) | 40) Marion Barber (DAL) | |
41) Tim Hightower (ARI) | 41) Keilland Williams (WAS) | |
42) BenJarvis Green-Ellis (NE) | 42) Jahvid Best (DET) | |
43) Jahvid Best (DET) | 43) Matt Tolbert (SD) | |
44) Ricky Williams (MIA) | 44) James Starks (GB) | |
45) Reggie Bush (NO / FA) | 45) Monterio Hardesty (CLE) |
Next Post: Quarterbacks
