The Mariners signed 1B Ryan Garko to a one-year, $550,000 contract earlier today. Garko was inexplicably non-tendered by the Giants last month, only to pave the way for Aubrey Huff. Garko, an above average bat with a league average glove, was entering his first year of arbitration when the Giants decided his probable $1 million salary was too expensive for their tastes (Brian Sabean much preferred paying Adam LaRoche $17 million for two years or Aubrey Huff, whose WAR was a whopping -1.1 last season, $3 million).
I like this move for the Mariners for two reasons. The first is that Garko is a lefties masher. In 485 PAs vs lefties for his career, Ryan Garko is a .313/.392/.495 (.887 OPS) hitter. His .266/.335/.420 (.755 OPS) line against righties is far less impressive, but still league average nonetheless. Jack Zduriencik hinted that Garko would platoon with Ken Griffey Jr., taking full advantage of Garko's skills.
The second reason I like this move is that the Mariners bought low on a quality offensive player. Despite the "down years" in 2008 and 2009 which made 2006 and 2007 seem like a fluke, it was bad luck which largely masked the fact that Garko's skills improved last season. Whereas Garko struck out 20% of the time and walked approximately 6.5% of the time from 2006-2007, Garko posted a 7.3% BB% and 14.1% K% last season. The strikeout rate has come down every season since 2006. Garko's power was down a bit last season (.153 ISO) compared to 2006 (.178 ISO) and 2007 (.194 ISO), but it bounced back from a low .131 mark in 2008 and was a robust .180 on the Indians before he was traded to the Giants a few days before the trade deadline. It is easy to forget that Ryan Garko posted a sexy .361 wOBA with the Indians last season. It was only when Garko was shipped away to San Francisco that things turned sour -- and you can blame most of that on a .243 BABIP across 127 very limited PAs.
Despite all the bad press stemming from his boring overall .268/.344/.421 (.765 OPS) triple slash line from last season, Garko was still 7% better than the league average player offensively. True, the average MLB first baseman hit .277/.362/.483 (.845 OPS) in 2009, but Garko was also hindered by a cumulative .282 BABIP (.304 xBABIP, according to THT's xBABIP calculator calculator). If we adjust Garko's BABIP to match his xBABIP and assume all of his additional hits would have been singles, Garko's 2009 expected triple slash line would have been a very respectable .288/.362/.441 (.803 OPS). CHONE projections peg Garko as a +8 run bat and -2 run glove per 150 games next year. Combined this with a -12.5 positional and +20.0 replacement adjustment, and you've got a decent +1 to +1.5 WAR bat at your disposal. Obviously, Garko won't see 150 games in a platoon, but he also won't see a lot of righties, so let's just say he's a +1 WAR player next season. Pair this with a league average glove and a salary which is less than 20% of that of Aubrey Huff, and Jack Z's got a bargain on his hands (+1 WAR has cost approximately $3.7 million in free agency dollars this offseason).
By contrast, by the way, CHONE projects Aubrey Huff as a +1 run bat and -1 run bat per 150 games. Factor in the positional (-12.5) and replacement (+20.0) adjustments, and you've got yourself a +0.5 WAR player. Makes you wonder what Brian Sabean is doing out there in San Fran.
Showing posts with label Aubrey Huff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aubrey Huff. Show all posts
Giants Seeking Left-Handed Bat, Sign Aubrey Huff
After Adam LaRoche (surprisingly) turned down the Giants offer of two-years, $17 million, the Giants -- who ranked second-to-last in ISO (with a team mark of .132) and dead last in all of OBP, BB% and wOBA last season -- concluded their search for a "lefty-hitter" by signing Aubrey Huff to $3 million, one-year deal. The same Aubrey Huff who hit .241/.310/.384 (.684 OPS) last season. How this is an upgrade for the Giants, who hit .257/.309/.389 (.699 OPS) as a team, is anyone's guess. Even when you account for Huff's .263 BABIP (.311 xBABIP), Huff's adjusted batting line (assuming all additional hits would be singles) last season would have been .282/.347/.426 (.773 OPS).
Yes, at $3 million/1-year, the Giants are only paying for less than even a single WAR on the open market. Such a signing makes sense if the team is in no position to compete, rebuilding for the future, and does not wish to waste resources by plugging temporary holes. The Giants are not in such a position, however. They were top 5 in FIP and #2 in xFIP last season. They have a super rotation of Lincecum-Cain-Sanchez in the top 3 spots, while Zito manages to be the highest paid (and most overpaid) number five guy in all of baseball. Furthermore, the Giants have one of baseball's best pitching prospects, lefty starter Madison Bumgardner, waiting in the wings alongs with baseball's top catching prospect, Buster Posey.
On the other end of the field, the Giants have Kung Fu Panda. That's it. Sure, Aaron Rowand is trolling around somewhere in the outfield, making web-gem-like diving catches at routine flyballs, but he's a 2 WAR player at this point in his career. What does it say about your offense last year when your second best offensive player was Juan Uribe? It says "hmm, maybe I should have offered more money to a better offensive player (like Jason Bay, Matt Holliday or Russell Branyan) or even try upping my offer to Adam LaRoche, rather than wasting salary on an old-as-balls guy in the twilight of his career (2008 aside, Huff has been on the decline since 2004.)." Don't believe me? Check out these 2010 percentile forecasts from ZiPS (click to enlarge):
According to ZiPS, only two players on the Giants 2009 roster have a greater than 2% chance to hit (at least) 30 home runs next year, and the Giants non-tendered one of them. Ryan Garko was also one of only three players on the Giants in 2009 who is projected to have a 20% or greater chance of posting an OBP greater than or equal to .375. Of those who will be with the Giants next season, only Kung Fu Panda has a remotely and statistically relevant (5% or greater) chance of hitting 45+ doubles in 2010. Furthermore, if you click the ZiPS link (above) rather than look at my screen shot, you will notice that only Kung Fu Panda is projected to be at least 5% better than the average offensive player next season.
In plain English, the Giants need some real (and serious) offensive help.
Perhaps this move was just Brian Sabean's way of telling Dayton Moore (who recently signed Scotty Pods) that he is challenging him for the title of worst GM ever.
Yes, at $3 million/1-year, the Giants are only paying for less than even a single WAR on the open market. Such a signing makes sense if the team is in no position to compete, rebuilding for the future, and does not wish to waste resources by plugging temporary holes. The Giants are not in such a position, however. They were top 5 in FIP and #2 in xFIP last season. They have a super rotation of Lincecum-Cain-Sanchez in the top 3 spots, while Zito manages to be the highest paid (and most overpaid) number five guy in all of baseball. Furthermore, the Giants have one of baseball's best pitching prospects, lefty starter Madison Bumgardner, waiting in the wings alongs with baseball's top catching prospect, Buster Posey.
On the other end of the field, the Giants have Kung Fu Panda. That's it. Sure, Aaron Rowand is trolling around somewhere in the outfield, making web-gem-like diving catches at routine flyballs, but he's a 2 WAR player at this point in his career. What does it say about your offense last year when your second best offensive player was Juan Uribe? It says "hmm, maybe I should have offered more money to a better offensive player (like Jason Bay, Matt Holliday or Russell Branyan) or even try upping my offer to Adam LaRoche, rather than wasting salary on an old-as-balls guy in the twilight of his career (2008 aside, Huff has been on the decline since 2004.)." Don't believe me? Check out these 2010 percentile forecasts from ZiPS (click to enlarge):
According to ZiPS, only two players on the Giants 2009 roster have a greater than 2% chance to hit (at least) 30 home runs next year, and the Giants non-tendered one of them. Ryan Garko was also one of only three players on the Giants in 2009 who is projected to have a 20% or greater chance of posting an OBP greater than or equal to .375. Of those who will be with the Giants next season, only Kung Fu Panda has a remotely and statistically relevant (5% or greater) chance of hitting 45+ doubles in 2010. Furthermore, if you click the ZiPS link (above) rather than look at my screen shot, you will notice that only Kung Fu Panda is projected to be at least 5% better than the average offensive player next season.
In plain English, the Giants need some real (and serious) offensive help.
Perhaps this move was just Brian Sabean's way of telling Dayton Moore (who recently signed Scotty Pods) that he is challenging him for the title of worst GM ever.
