The Mariners signed 1B Ryan Garko to a one-year, $550,000 contract earlier today. Garko was inexplicably non-tendered by the Giants last month, only to pave the way for Aubrey Huff. Garko, an above average bat with a league average glove, was entering his first year of arbitration when the Giants decided his probable $1 million salary was too expensive for their tastes (Brian Sabean much preferred paying Adam LaRoche $17 million for two years or Aubrey Huff, whose WAR was a whopping -1.1 last season, $3 million).
I like this move for the Mariners for two reasons. The first is that Garko is a lefties masher. In 485 PAs vs lefties for his career, Ryan Garko is a .313/.392/.495 (.887 OPS) hitter. His .266/.335/.420 (.755 OPS) line against righties is far less impressive, but still league average nonetheless. Jack Zduriencik hinted that Garko would platoon with Ken Griffey Jr., taking full advantage of Garko's skills.
The second reason I like this move is that the Mariners bought low on a quality offensive player. Despite the "down years" in 2008 and 2009 which made 2006 and 2007 seem like a fluke, it was bad luck which largely masked the fact that Garko's skills improved last season. Whereas Garko struck out 20% of the time and walked approximately 6.5% of the time from 2006-2007, Garko posted a 7.3% BB% and 14.1% K% last season. The strikeout rate has come down every season since 2006. Garko's power was down a bit last season (.153 ISO) compared to 2006 (.178 ISO) and 2007 (.194 ISO), but it bounced back from a low .131 mark in 2008 and was a robust .180 on the Indians before he was traded to the Giants a few days before the trade deadline. It is easy to forget that Ryan Garko posted a sexy .361 wOBA with the Indians last season. It was only when Garko was shipped away to San Francisco that things turned sour -- and you can blame most of that on a .243 BABIP across 127 very limited PAs.
Despite all the bad press stemming from his boring overall .268/.344/.421 (.765 OPS) triple slash line from last season, Garko was still 7% better than the league average player offensively. True, the average MLB first baseman hit .277/.362/.483 (.845 OPS) in 2009, but Garko was also hindered by a cumulative .282 BABIP (.304 xBABIP, according to THT's xBABIP calculator calculator). If we adjust Garko's BABIP to match his xBABIP and assume all of his additional hits would have been singles, Garko's 2009 expected triple slash line would have been a very respectable .288/.362/.441 (.803 OPS). CHONE projections peg Garko as a +8 run bat and -2 run glove per 150 games next year. Combined this with a -12.5 positional and +20.0 replacement adjustment, and you've got a decent +1 to +1.5 WAR bat at your disposal. Obviously, Garko won't see 150 games in a platoon, but he also won't see a lot of righties, so let's just say he's a +1 WAR player next season. Pair this with a league average glove and a salary which is less than 20% of that of Aubrey Huff, and Jack Z's got a bargain on his hands (+1 WAR has cost approximately $3.7 million in free agency dollars this offseason).
By contrast, by the way, CHONE projects Aubrey Huff as a +1 run bat and -1 run bat per 150 games. Factor in the positional (-12.5) and replacement (+20.0) adjustments, and you've got yourself a +0.5 WAR player. Makes you wonder what Brian Sabean is doing out there in San Fran.
Showing posts with label Jack Zduriencik. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jack Zduriencik. Show all posts
The Mariners' New Direction
In the post-Moneyball era, the value of raw offensive power has become more universally recognized. Where as once upon a time, slow and aged one-tool sluggers had difficulty finding non-DHing jobs, nowadays, even hated players like Adam Dunn can find a good pay day. However, as a consequence of offensive value appreciating on the market, the yang to the baseball's ying, defensive ability and runs prevention, has become the new underrated asset of baseball.
Despite popular belief, the spirit of Moneyball was not about on-base ability and slugging. It was about exploiting market inefficiencies so as to maximize the difference between runs creation and runs prevention. Back in 2002, when the raw tools of offense were undervalued, the focus of the underrated market value game was OBP and OPS. In this new era of baseball, however, "[t]he newest, cheapest commodities are defense and athletic players." And it's not just Billy Beane who has taken notice. Enter Jack Zduriencik.
Jack Zduriencik, the man who almost single-handedly built the Brewers' talented farm system over most of the past decade, was hired as the GM of the Seattle Mariners following a disastrously disappointing 2008 season, where the M's went 61-101. Just one year later, Zduriencik has made some big, bold changes, exploiting both market inefficiencies and Safe Co.'s park dimensions to the benefit of the organization and put the team in a position to contend in 2010.
Despite the presence of strong defenders like Adrian Beltre and Ichiro Suzuki, the Mariners ranked in the bottom half of the league defensively in 2008. Not surprisingly, the pitching staff ranked in the bottom half of the league as well. The other side of the game was much less pretty. The team's cumulatively below average glove was poorly complemented by an even weaker bat, as the team's collective .310 wOBA was bottom five in all of baseball. In short, the active roster was in shambles and the minor league system...well, the Mariners really did not have much of one. This was the state of being for the Mariners when Zduriencik stepped in.
Since taking over as GM, Zduriencik has made a bold change by moving the team's spending away from offensive production and shifting it towards runs prevention and defense. Instead of luring in "offensive" players to fill team holes last season (those like Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, or, god forbid, Ritchie Sex), the Mariners went out and got guys for their gloves, acquiring Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez. Even Russell Branyan, who was brought in for his offensive contributions, provided the team with a league average glove. Zduriencik, realizing that both Safe Co. Park and the Oakland Coliseum (between which the Mariners play approximately 92 games a season) similarly deflated offensive production, decided to exploit the runs creation/prevention gap by focusing on the prevention aspect of the game. And he did successfully.
By a wide margin, the 2009 Mariners had the best defensive team in baseball last season, preventing 16 more runs from scoring than the second best defensive team (the Rays). Between the park's cavernous dimensions and +62.0 UZR outfield, the team was able to turn even Jarrod Washburn into a staff ace and the team won 85 games behind the league's 6th best team in ERA (note: ERA is a terrible metric to evaluate future success, but it does evaluate the level of success a pitching staff had in a single year, whether it be luck, defense or talent based). And although I normally lobby for FIP-based ERA regression, I dare utter no such thing about the Mariners' league leading -0.52 ERA-FIP split going into next season. Why? Because the Mariners defense is only gettting better.
As Erik Manning points out, the Mariners continue to abuse the persistence market inefficiencies of defense. Chone Figgins has a stellar glove and above average/no-power skill set that should bode well with Safe Co. and the Mariners. After posting a +6 WAR season, $36 million over four years seems a steal for Chone Figgins; especially when you consider that Jason Bay is posed for a +$60 million dollar, four year pay day after posting a mere +3.5 WAR season. In addition to bringing into Chone Figgins to play third, the team has also extended mid-season SS acquisition Jack Wilson, who averaged a +18 UZR/150 over the last two seasons. That solidifies the left side of the infield, while some combination of Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Saunders, and Ryan Langerhans man the outfield.
The right side of the infield is more ify, though still solid with Jose Lopez (decent bat, average glove) playing 2B. 1B remains an unknown at this point, though the team seems intent on bringing Russell Branyan back. If they cannot, however, the market is plenty saturated (I smell value) with players the team can plug and play at 1B.
In sum, the Mariners are poised to again be the league's best defensive team. A few high risk, low cost gambles like Rich Harden or Ben Sheets help lead the team to a stellar 2010 season (escpecially when you consider that Chone Figgins and Jack Wilson cannot possibly hit any worse in 2010 than Adrian Beltre and Yuniesky Bentacourt did in 2009).
The AL West needs to look out. With Jack Zduriencik around, the M's are back in force.
Despite popular belief, the spirit of Moneyball was not about on-base ability and slugging. It was about exploiting market inefficiencies so as to maximize the difference between runs creation and runs prevention. Back in 2002, when the raw tools of offense were undervalued, the focus of the underrated market value game was OBP and OPS. In this new era of baseball, however, "[t]he newest, cheapest commodities are defense and athletic players." And it's not just Billy Beane who has taken notice. Enter Jack Zduriencik.
Jack Zduriencik, the man who almost single-handedly built the Brewers' talented farm system over most of the past decade, was hired as the GM of the Seattle Mariners following a disastrously disappointing 2008 season, where the M's went 61-101. Just one year later, Zduriencik has made some big, bold changes, exploiting both market inefficiencies and Safe Co.'s park dimensions to the benefit of the organization and put the team in a position to contend in 2010.
Despite the presence of strong defenders like Adrian Beltre and Ichiro Suzuki, the Mariners ranked in the bottom half of the league defensively in 2008. Not surprisingly, the pitching staff ranked in the bottom half of the league as well. The other side of the game was much less pretty. The team's cumulatively below average glove was poorly complemented by an even weaker bat, as the team's collective .310 wOBA was bottom five in all of baseball. In short, the active roster was in shambles and the minor league system...well, the Mariners really did not have much of one. This was the state of being for the Mariners when Zduriencik stepped in.
Since taking over as GM, Zduriencik has made a bold change by moving the team's spending away from offensive production and shifting it towards runs prevention and defense. Instead of luring in "offensive" players to fill team holes last season (those like Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, or, god forbid, Ritchie Sex), the Mariners went out and got guys for their gloves, acquiring Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez. Even Russell Branyan, who was brought in for his offensive contributions, provided the team with a league average glove. Zduriencik, realizing that both Safe Co. Park and the Oakland Coliseum (between which the Mariners play approximately 92 games a season) similarly deflated offensive production, decided to exploit the runs creation/prevention gap by focusing on the prevention aspect of the game. And he did successfully.
By a wide margin, the 2009 Mariners had the best defensive team in baseball last season, preventing 16 more runs from scoring than the second best defensive team (the Rays). Between the park's cavernous dimensions and +62.0 UZR outfield, the team was able to turn even Jarrod Washburn into a staff ace and the team won 85 games behind the league's 6th best team in ERA (note: ERA is a terrible metric to evaluate future success, but it does evaluate the level of success a pitching staff had in a single year, whether it be luck, defense or talent based). And although I normally lobby for FIP-based ERA regression, I dare utter no such thing about the Mariners' league leading -0.52 ERA-FIP split going into next season. Why? Because the Mariners defense is only gettting better.
As Erik Manning points out, the Mariners continue to abuse the persistence market inefficiencies of defense. Chone Figgins has a stellar glove and above average/no-power skill set that should bode well with Safe Co. and the Mariners. After posting a +6 WAR season, $36 million over four years seems a steal for Chone Figgins; especially when you consider that Jason Bay is posed for a +$60 million dollar, four year pay day after posting a mere +3.5 WAR season. In addition to bringing into Chone Figgins to play third, the team has also extended mid-season SS acquisition Jack Wilson, who averaged a +18 UZR/150 over the last two seasons. That solidifies the left side of the infield, while some combination of Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Saunders, and Ryan Langerhans man the outfield.
The right side of the infield is more ify, though still solid with Jose Lopez (decent bat, average glove) playing 2B. 1B remains an unknown at this point, though the team seems intent on bringing Russell Branyan back. If they cannot, however, the market is plenty saturated (I smell value) with players the team can plug and play at 1B.
In sum, the Mariners are poised to again be the league's best defensive team. A few high risk, low cost gambles like Rich Harden or Ben Sheets help lead the team to a stellar 2010 season (escpecially when you consider that Chone Figgins and Jack Wilson cannot possibly hit any worse in 2010 than Adrian Beltre and Yuniesky Bentacourt did in 2009).
The AL West needs to look out. With Jack Zduriencik around, the M's are back in force.
