It's 2:20 AM, so I'll make this a quickie post. I forecasted Jake Peavy's 2010 a few weeks ago, and he's done nothing to prove me wrong yet. At this point in the season (despite the very limited sample size), here are five legitimate reasons to be worried about Jake Peavy.
1. Decreasing groundball rate
Through his first four starts, Jake Peavy's current GB% sits at an ugly 33.3%. Only 8 other starting pitchers have induced less worm burners as a percentage of all contact made against them this season. Peavy's career GB% is an already low 41.6% and it's never been 45% or higher; considering where he plays nowadays, Peavy's can't afford to keep the ball in the air (especially not with Carlos Quentin playing defense).
2. Increasing walk rate
Peavy's 2010 BB/9 of 6.04 is double what it was from 2008-2009. The league average is traditionally around 3.40. From 2005-2007, Peavy's walk rate per nine registered at 2.22, 2.76 and 2.74. I expect Peavy's walk rate to fall considerably as the season progresses, but flyball pitchers who pitch in the Cell need to limit the number of guys on base to keep their ERA's low. An even then, as Javier Vazquez can attest, that is not enough.
3. Decreased strikeout rate
A move from the NL to AL was obviously going to result in a slightly decreased K/9, but Peavy's strikeout rate so far this season is down 33%. Two of his four starts have come against the Rays and Jays, who are the two most strikeout-prone teams in baseball at the moment. Not every team has Travis Snyder in their lineup.
4. The White Sox still play awful defense
Despite having the best defensive Designated Hitter in baseball, the White Sox are still awful at fielding. As of 04/26/10, the Pale Hose are fifth to last in terms of team UZR/150, with a -12.1 mark (click here to see current UZR/150 ratings by team). So far this season, the White Sox defense has been "worth" 7.8 runs below average, second to only the Dodgers, who have cost their team 9.6 runs in poor glove work.
5. Moving from Petco Park to US Cellular Field (and from the NL to AL)
According to ESPN's Park Factor Data for 2009, The Cell was fourth in home runs in 2009 with a 19% inflation factor, where as Petco was second to last with a 33% deflation rate. In terms of offense, Petco suppressed run creation by 35.9% last season, whereas The Cell inflated them by 6.2%. To top this off, moves from the NL to AL generally result in a half-run ERA increase.
Admittedly, 22.1 IP is an incredibly small sample size, but when you compound all of these factors together, you have a recipe for disaster. Sure, Peavy might right the ship starting today and prove me completely wrong, but I was down on Peavy entering the 2010 season and nothing he's done yet has quelled my concerns. I projected a 4.22 ERA. ZiPS seems to agree (4.22 Rest Of Season ERA prediction as of 04/26/10).
Sell now, while you still can?
Showing posts with label Jake Peavy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jake Peavy. Show all posts
Forecasting Jake Peavy For 2010
Sure, I've got a 30 page appellate brief due Monday, but baseball season, which is clearly more important, is only 3 days away and it's never too early to preempt the hopes and dreams and moronic arguments of White Sox fans everywhere. All I've heard this offseason is "Jake Peavy this" and "Jake Peavy that" (oh, and Ozzie Guillen ranting about the importance of letting everyone on the team run wild...).
Are White Sox fans entitled to feel so good about Jake Peavy, owner of a career ERA of 3.26 and K/9 of 9.02? Let's run the numbers
His split stats are not very encouraging. Peavy has a career Home ERA of 2.82 and Away ERA of 3.79. The latter is still good, but it's not exactly the creme de la creme "top ace material" Peavy's been billed as (unless you consider Carlos Zambrano a comparable "ace").
At age 29, Peavy is still very young though he is quite seasoned in the majors. He has a career xFIP of 3.58 and has averaged about 180.2 IP each of the last seven years. Using these as a baseline from which to do a quick 2010 forecast, we must first account for league adjustments, courtesy of data from The Hardball Times. A move from the NL to AL, on average, causes a 0.57 K/9 decrease and a 0.41 ERA increase. This put's Peavy's xERA for 2010 at 3.99 and K/9 rate at 8.45. Over 180.2 IP, this gives up a raw runs allowed total of 80.
Next, we need to account for park factors. According to Baseball Reference's multi-year park factor data, US Cellular Field has inflated run scoring by 4%. Accounting for the park change, Peavy's runs allowed total increases to 83.3 per 180.2 IP.
Finally, we need to account for defense. CHONE sees a defensive team composed of Konerko-Beckham-Teahen-Pierzynski-Pierre-Quentin-Rios-Ramirez as being cumulatively worth -10 Fielding Runs "Above" Replacement (FRAR) per 150 games played. Sure, back ups play too, but let's just pretend for the sake of simplicity that they do not factor in (especially since only a handful of White Sox utility men are projected to be not negative). Over 162 games played, this FRAR extrapolates to -11. The average baseball team played 1442 innings of defense last season and using this number as the baseline for White Sox defensive innings in 2010 (because extra inning games are impossible to predict), the Sox seem poised to forfeit .0076 runs per inning of defensive play. Per 180.2 innings, that is 1.37 runs forfeited due to poor defense (though the White Sox, to their credit, do project to have the best defensive DH in baseball by running Andruw Jones and Omar Visquel in a platoon).
All this factored in, Peavy is predicted to give up 84.67 runs per 180.2 IP with an 8.45 K/9 to boot. This amounts to a 4.22 ERA with 170 Ks to boot.
Plus-4 ERA, under 200 Ks for Peavy in 2010? Even if he pitches 200 innings, I'd say so. Put it on the board?
Are White Sox fans entitled to feel so good about Jake Peavy, owner of a career ERA of 3.26 and K/9 of 9.02? Let's run the numbers
His split stats are not very encouraging. Peavy has a career Home ERA of 2.82 and Away ERA of 3.79. The latter is still good, but it's not exactly the creme de la creme "top ace material" Peavy's been billed as (unless you consider Carlos Zambrano a comparable "ace").
At age 29, Peavy is still very young though he is quite seasoned in the majors. He has a career xFIP of 3.58 and has averaged about 180.2 IP each of the last seven years. Using these as a baseline from which to do a quick 2010 forecast, we must first account for league adjustments, courtesy of data from The Hardball Times. A move from the NL to AL, on average, causes a 0.57 K/9 decrease and a 0.41 ERA increase. This put's Peavy's xERA for 2010 at 3.99 and K/9 rate at 8.45. Over 180.2 IP, this gives up a raw runs allowed total of 80.
Next, we need to account for park factors. According to Baseball Reference's multi-year park factor data, US Cellular Field has inflated run scoring by 4%. Accounting for the park change, Peavy's runs allowed total increases to 83.3 per 180.2 IP.
Finally, we need to account for defense. CHONE sees a defensive team composed of Konerko-Beckham-Teahen-Pierzynski-Pierre-Quentin-Rios-Ramirez as being cumulatively worth -10 Fielding Runs "Above" Replacement (FRAR) per 150 games played. Sure, back ups play too, but let's just pretend for the sake of simplicity that they do not factor in (especially since only a handful of White Sox utility men are projected to be not negative). Over 162 games played, this FRAR extrapolates to -11. The average baseball team played 1442 innings of defense last season and using this number as the baseline for White Sox defensive innings in 2010 (because extra inning games are impossible to predict), the Sox seem poised to forfeit .0076 runs per inning of defensive play. Per 180.2 innings, that is 1.37 runs forfeited due to poor defense (though the White Sox, to their credit, do project to have the best defensive DH in baseball by running Andruw Jones and Omar Visquel in a platoon).
All this factored in, Peavy is predicted to give up 84.67 runs per 180.2 IP with an 8.45 K/9 to boot. This amounts to a 4.22 ERA with 170 Ks to boot.
Plus-4 ERA, under 200 Ks for Peavy in 2010? Even if he pitches 200 innings, I'd say so. Put it on the board?
Why I Think Gavin Floyd Could Be Better Than Jake Peavy
EDITOR'S NOTE: Do you not understand FIP, xFIP, or a lot about sabermetrics? I recommend you read this first before proceeding to get a better understanding of the arguments being made.
Yes, I said it, WHAT! Also, before anyone comments, please note they key word "could", not "will" be better.
There are two keys to this argument. The first point is that Gavin Floyd improved greatly over the past two season which is why I like him in general (especially for how late you can get Floyd). The second is that Jake Peavy away from PETCO is not THAT good. And guess where his home is now? The hitters park known at Comiskey (I refuse to call it U.S. Cellular Field. Maybe The Cell).
On to the latter point. Here's some key home/away splits for Peavy
ERA: 2.82/ 3.79
FIP: 2.83/ 4.20
xFIP: 3.27/ 3.94
K/9: 9.63/ 8.30
BB/9: 2.63/ 3.25
HR/FB%: 7.10/ 12.3
I don't think anyone will deny that Jake Peavy's great career numbers came from the fact that he played in THE best pitcher park. And not only that, Peavy played in the NL. He's not only coming to a hitter's park (Comiskey ranked top 10 the past three years in HR given up) AND coming over to the harder league. All these are indicators that Peavy's numbers while he's wearing a White Sox uniform will nowhere match the numbers Peavy wore while wearing a Padres one.
Next, we have Gavin Floyd. After giving up 30 HRs in 2008 and magically (and luckily) having an ERA of 3.85, I was on board the bandwagon in saying that Floyd would regress. But he proved us wrong (I'm happy to say) and took great strides forward. He increased his K/9 (6.32 to 7.60), lowered his BB/9 rate (3.05 to 2.75), lowered his FIP by a full run (4.77 to 3.77) and lowered his xFIP (4.56 to 3.69).
The biggest improvement in Floyd's game was lowering the total amount of HRs he gave up (30 in 2008 down to 21 in 2009). This was done by giving up more ground balls- and subsequently giving up less fly balls (which naturally leads to less home runs). And it was not like Floyd got lucky or unlucky with the amount of HR he gave up (not like Clayton Kershaw). In '08 Floyd had a 11.8 HR/FB% in '08 and a 11.3 HR/FB% in '09 which falls right along the line of where it should.
The White Sox defense is slightly improved, especially the outfield which should benefit both pitchers. Having Rios and Pierre should help these flyballers and are a big step up from Rios' awful year, the Wise/ Anderson platoon, and the awful awful AWFUL defender that is Jermaine Dye.
But off my side tangent, here's a look now side by side of Peavy's career away numbers (on the left) vs. Floyd's 2009 numbers (on the right). And keep in mind, the trend shows that Floyd's improving. (I mean, the dude is only 27, about to enter into his prime, and only has two full years of big league experience)
Peavy vs. Floyd
ERA: 3.79 vs. 4.06
FIP: 4.20 vs. 3.77
xFIP: 3.94 vs.3.69
K/9: 8.30 vs. 7.60
BB/9: 3.25 vs. 2.75
WHIP: 1.29 vs. 1.23
GB/FB%: 1.08 vs. 1.34
HR/FB%: 12.3 vs. 11.8
The only two categories Peavy gets the edge in is ERA and K/9. But as shown by the pitcher's FIP and xFIP, I believe that Floyd will have the better ERA considering he has the better FIP and xFIP and the two have the same defense.
But the K/9 is the reason I'm not making a crazy bold prediction that Floyd will be better. Peavy is a strikeout guy and despite the drop off between Peavy's home/away splits, he still strikes out a lot of guys. And strikeouts are the main thing a pitcher can actually control. But I am banking on the fact that Floyd will improve his strike out rate like he did last year. If he improves his K/9 rate at the same rate he did last year though, his K/9 would be 9.14- a rate better than Peavy's away numbers. Now this of course is a big assumption to make, but I'm not convinced that Peavy will have significantly more strike outs than Floyd- if he does.
Not to mention that Peavy is coming off of a season where he only pitched in 16 games- three at the end of the year that probably didn't mean crap for your team. (Despite me saying that, I have a theory that the WBC hurts major league pitchers. Peavy's worst seasons were in 2006 and 2009- the years he pitched in the WBC. I also blame it for the injuries to Roy Oswalt, Dice-K, and Ted Lilly).
But even if you think Peavy will have better and more strikeouts, I don't think it will be by such a wide margin as you might think. Combine that with the fact that Peavy and Floyd will probably have similar WHIPs and ERA and both have the same crappy offensive behind them (and mediocre defense), why take Peavy when you can get a guy who's just as good, later or cheaper in your draft?
In the recent GOI auction draft, Peavy went for $18, whereas I got Floyd for ten bucks cheaper. For snake/normal leagues, the ADP of Peavy is 107.62 versus Floyd which is about 80 picks later at 186.67 (which is also behind John Danks. Although Yahoo! rankings agree with me and rank Floyd ahead of Peavy, but I doubt anyone in your league will do that).
I'm not going to go so far as to Put It On The Board that Floyd will be better than Peavy because it's absolutely not unreasonable and is foreseeable that Peavy will have the better ERA and WHIP, and even if it's close- have much more strikeouts. But when I drafted, I took the risk of waiting to get Floyd and I think you should too.
Yes, I said it, WHAT! Also, before anyone comments, please note they key word "could", not "will" be better.
There are two keys to this argument. The first point is that Gavin Floyd improved greatly over the past two season which is why I like him in general (especially for how late you can get Floyd). The second is that Jake Peavy away from PETCO is not THAT good. And guess where his home is now? The hitters park known at Comiskey (I refuse to call it U.S. Cellular Field. Maybe The Cell).
On to the latter point. Here's some key home/away splits for Peavy
ERA: 2.82/ 3.79
FIP: 2.83/ 4.20
xFIP: 3.27/ 3.94
K/9: 9.63/ 8.30
BB/9: 2.63/ 3.25
HR/FB%: 7.10/ 12.3
I don't think anyone will deny that Jake Peavy's great career numbers came from the fact that he played in THE best pitcher park. And not only that, Peavy played in the NL. He's not only coming to a hitter's park (Comiskey ranked top 10 the past three years in HR given up) AND coming over to the harder league. All these are indicators that Peavy's numbers while he's wearing a White Sox uniform will nowhere match the numbers Peavy wore while wearing a Padres one.
Next, we have Gavin Floyd. After giving up 30 HRs in 2008 and magically (and luckily) having an ERA of 3.85, I was on board the bandwagon in saying that Floyd would regress. But he proved us wrong (I'm happy to say) and took great strides forward. He increased his K/9 (6.32 to 7.60), lowered his BB/9 rate (3.05 to 2.75), lowered his FIP by a full run (4.77 to 3.77) and lowered his xFIP (4.56 to 3.69).
The biggest improvement in Floyd's game was lowering the total amount of HRs he gave up (30 in 2008 down to 21 in 2009). This was done by giving up more ground balls- and subsequently giving up less fly balls (which naturally leads to less home runs). And it was not like Floyd got lucky or unlucky with the amount of HR he gave up (not like Clayton Kershaw). In '08 Floyd had a 11.8 HR/FB% in '08 and a 11.3 HR/FB% in '09 which falls right along the line of where it should.
The White Sox defense is slightly improved, especially the outfield which should benefit both pitchers. Having Rios and Pierre should help these flyballers and are a big step up from Rios' awful year, the Wise/ Anderson platoon, and the awful awful AWFUL defender that is Jermaine Dye.
But off my side tangent, here's a look now side by side of Peavy's career away numbers (on the left) vs. Floyd's 2009 numbers (on the right). And keep in mind, the trend shows that Floyd's improving. (I mean, the dude is only 27, about to enter into his prime, and only has two full years of big league experience)
Peavy vs. Floyd
ERA: 3.79 vs. 4.06
FIP: 4.20 vs. 3.77
xFIP: 3.94 vs.3.69
K/9: 8.30 vs. 7.60
BB/9: 3.25 vs. 2.75
WHIP: 1.29 vs. 1.23
GB/FB%: 1.08 vs. 1.34
HR/FB%: 12.3 vs. 11.8
The only two categories Peavy gets the edge in is ERA and K/9. But as shown by the pitcher's FIP and xFIP, I believe that Floyd will have the better ERA considering he has the better FIP and xFIP and the two have the same defense.
But the K/9 is the reason I'm not making a crazy bold prediction that Floyd will be better. Peavy is a strikeout guy and despite the drop off between Peavy's home/away splits, he still strikes out a lot of guys. And strikeouts are the main thing a pitcher can actually control. But I am banking on the fact that Floyd will improve his strike out rate like he did last year. If he improves his K/9 rate at the same rate he did last year though, his K/9 would be 9.14- a rate better than Peavy's away numbers. Now this of course is a big assumption to make, but I'm not convinced that Peavy will have significantly more strike outs than Floyd- if he does.
Not to mention that Peavy is coming off of a season where he only pitched in 16 games- three at the end of the year that probably didn't mean crap for your team. (Despite me saying that, I have a theory that the WBC hurts major league pitchers. Peavy's worst seasons were in 2006 and 2009- the years he pitched in the WBC. I also blame it for the injuries to Roy Oswalt, Dice-K, and Ted Lilly).
But even if you think Peavy will have better and more strikeouts, I don't think it will be by such a wide margin as you might think. Combine that with the fact that Peavy and Floyd will probably have similar WHIPs and ERA and both have the same crappy offensive behind them (and mediocre defense), why take Peavy when you can get a guy who's just as good, later or cheaper in your draft?
In the recent GOI auction draft, Peavy went for $18, whereas I got Floyd for ten bucks cheaper. For snake/normal leagues, the ADP of Peavy is 107.62 versus Floyd which is about 80 picks later at 186.67 (which is also behind John Danks. Although Yahoo! rankings agree with me and rank Floyd ahead of Peavy, but I doubt anyone in your league will do that).
I'm not going to go so far as to Put It On The Board that Floyd will be better than Peavy because it's absolutely not unreasonable and is foreseeable that Peavy will have the better ERA and WHIP, and even if it's close- have much more strikeouts. But when I drafted, I took the risk of waiting to get Floyd and I think you should too.
I'm Sorry Jake Peavy For All Those Hurtful Words, Can We Please Make Up?
Jake Peavy is now officially a Chicago White Sock. Man this feels good to say. I'm extremely excited and happy about this deal and am a bit ticked off that my fellow Sox fans don't agree with me. Here is my reasoning for why I like this Peavy deal:
You didn't give up much: Say this with me White Sox fans, the team did not give up much. The team gave up four pitching prospects including Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard. This deal did not include Bacon (Gordon Beckam), Gavin Floyd, or John Danks. That means the rotation for the next three years will be: Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd. That's a damn fine rotation that the Sox will have for a long time. Any pitchers the Sox gave up are either not needed because we now have Peavy or would just be bullpen guys anyway. And why, as an organization, would a desperately want to hold onto to bullpen guys? Plus the Sox still have good young PROVEN guys like Bobby Jenks and my boy Matt Thorton. Bullpen guys are a dime a dozen and inconsistent year to year. Trust me White Sox nation, the future is not tarnished.
Peavy is young and awesome: I know there's concerns that Peavy is moving from the NL to the much harder AL and from the best pitchers parks to a home run friendly field. So I'm sure Peavy won't look AS dominant, but he still will be damn fucking good. Peavy has amazing stuff and is a strikeout pitcher, things the pitcher can control. Great pitchers will be good no matter where they go. I don't have time to look at Peavy's away stats, but I'm sure their fine. Listen, I'm not expecting and ERA under 3, but I am expecting Peavy to be a top 5 AL pitcher and there's reason why he can't be. That, and Peavy is only 28 years old. It's not like the Sox are getting a guy at the end of his career. Jake Peavy also does not give up a whole lot of HRs and it's pretty overrated how much of a hitters park Comickey is.
Let me now address some concerns White Sox fans may have
1) Won't Peavy coast the club a lot? Sure, Peavy comes with a very hefty price tag, but this isn't like fantasy baseball where you can pass on Peavy to get Dan Haren a round later. Peavy has proven to be an amazing pitcher and you should expect very good things from him. And when you get the kind of production that Peavy will probably produce, you have to pay for it. And it's not like there's a salary cap in baseball where a team can ONLY spend x amount, Jerry Reinsdorf can spend all he wants. And if he wants to pay for Peavy, let him, it's no skin off your back. Plus, soon the club is going to get rid of a lot of salary over the next year or two when huge contract guys like Jim Thome and Octavio Dotel gets off the books after this year and when AJ, Konerko, and JD are gone within the next year or two.
2) I don't want to get rid of Clayton Richard, without him the White Sox would be 0-7 and not 1-6 on this road trip! (A legit concern a caller on Carmen, Yurko, and Harry said). 1) Clayton Richard sucks, fuck him. He'd be nothing more than a 5th starter at best 2) Give me the proven All-Star any day of the week. Why do you love the Jay Cutler trade and hate on the Jake Peavy one? It's the same thing and both are awesome.
3) This Peavy deal doesn't help the Sox win this year. True, but what player would help the Sox win this year? Let's face it, unless the Sox made multiple blockbuster deals, they weren't making it to the playoffs. And even so, they wouldn't make it far. Ideally, the goal of every team is to win the World Series and the ChiSox would not even come close this year. But this deal DOES give the team a legitimate chance to go within the next three years. With that beastly rotation, why don't they have a chance? This deal helps the Sox for the long term and not the short term, and that's good because the White Sox don't have a chance is the short term to begin with.
Yes, in order for the White Sox to be a legitimate contender, they will need to get an offense outside of Bacon and maybe CQ, but that's completely independent of this Peavy deal. The Sox still have PLENTY, you hear me PLENTY, of pitchers already on the team or with the minors to help the club in the future. And frankly, I'm just happy Matt Thorton isn't included in this Peavy deal like he was in the original deal. THANK YOU KENNY WILLIAMS, you're moving out of my cynical, hatred pile into my liking pile.
You didn't give up much: Say this with me White Sox fans, the team did not give up much. The team gave up four pitching prospects including Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard. This deal did not include Bacon (Gordon Beckam), Gavin Floyd, or John Danks. That means the rotation for the next three years will be: Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd. That's a damn fine rotation that the Sox will have for a long time. Any pitchers the Sox gave up are either not needed because we now have Peavy or would just be bullpen guys anyway. And why, as an organization, would a desperately want to hold onto to bullpen guys? Plus the Sox still have good young PROVEN guys like Bobby Jenks and my boy Matt Thorton. Bullpen guys are a dime a dozen and inconsistent year to year. Trust me White Sox nation, the future is not tarnished.
Peavy is young and awesome: I know there's concerns that Peavy is moving from the NL to the much harder AL and from the best pitchers parks to a home run friendly field. So I'm sure Peavy won't look AS dominant, but he still will be damn fucking good. Peavy has amazing stuff and is a strikeout pitcher, things the pitcher can control. Great pitchers will be good no matter where they go. I don't have time to look at Peavy's away stats, but I'm sure their fine. Listen, I'm not expecting and ERA under 3, but I am expecting Peavy to be a top 5 AL pitcher and there's reason why he can't be. That, and Peavy is only 28 years old. It's not like the Sox are getting a guy at the end of his career. Jake Peavy also does not give up a whole lot of HRs and it's pretty overrated how much of a hitters park Comickey is.
Let me now address some concerns White Sox fans may have
1) Won't Peavy coast the club a lot? Sure, Peavy comes with a very hefty price tag, but this isn't like fantasy baseball where you can pass on Peavy to get Dan Haren a round later. Peavy has proven to be an amazing pitcher and you should expect very good things from him. And when you get the kind of production that Peavy will probably produce, you have to pay for it. And it's not like there's a salary cap in baseball where a team can ONLY spend x amount, Jerry Reinsdorf can spend all he wants. And if he wants to pay for Peavy, let him, it's no skin off your back. Plus, soon the club is going to get rid of a lot of salary over the next year or two when huge contract guys like Jim Thome and Octavio Dotel gets off the books after this year and when AJ, Konerko, and JD are gone within the next year or two.
2) I don't want to get rid of Clayton Richard, without him the White Sox would be 0-7 and not 1-6 on this road trip! (A legit concern a caller on Carmen, Yurko, and Harry said). 1) Clayton Richard sucks, fuck him. He'd be nothing more than a 5th starter at best 2) Give me the proven All-Star any day of the week. Why do you love the Jay Cutler trade and hate on the Jake Peavy one? It's the same thing and both are awesome.
3) This Peavy deal doesn't help the Sox win this year. True, but what player would help the Sox win this year? Let's face it, unless the Sox made multiple blockbuster deals, they weren't making it to the playoffs. And even so, they wouldn't make it far. Ideally, the goal of every team is to win the World Series and the ChiSox would not even come close this year. But this deal DOES give the team a legitimate chance to go within the next three years. With that beastly rotation, why don't they have a chance? This deal helps the Sox for the long term and not the short term, and that's good because the White Sox don't have a chance is the short term to begin with.
Yes, in order for the White Sox to be a legitimate contender, they will need to get an offense outside of Bacon and maybe CQ, but that's completely independent of this Peavy deal. The Sox still have PLENTY, you hear me PLENTY, of pitchers already on the team or with the minors to help the club in the future. And frankly, I'm just happy Matt Thorton isn't included in this Peavy deal like he was in the original deal. THANK YOU KENNY WILLIAMS, you're moving out of my cynical, hatred pile into my liking pile.
I'm Going To Break Jake Peavy's Legs
From a logical/rational standpoint, I can fully see why Jake Peavy would reject a trade going from San Diego in the most pitcher friendly park, to Chicago in a very home run friendly park. Plus, it's not like Peavy truly wanted to get traded anyway.
From MY point of view as a White Sox fan, FUCK YOU YOU STUPID MOTHERFUCKER. IF I EVER SEE YOU I'M GOING TO CROWBAR YOUR ASS! COME TO THE FUCKING WHITE SOX.
Kudos to Kenny Williams for going out and making this deal though- tough break
That is all
From MY point of view as a White Sox fan, FUCK YOU YOU STUPID MOTHERFUCKER. IF I EVER SEE YOU I'M GOING TO CROWBAR YOUR ASS! COME TO THE FUCKING WHITE SOX.
Kudos to Kenny Williams for going out and making this deal though- tough break
That is all
Jake Peavy Finally Traded To Chicago?
7:30PM UPDATE: Peavy vetoed the trade.
________________
1:30PM UPDATE: ESPN.com talked to Peavy's agent, who indicates that Peavy is leaning against accepting the deal.
10:50AM UPDATE: Peter Gammons says Beckham is not part of the Peavy deal.
________________
According to Jon Heymen of Sports Illustrated, Jake Peavy has finally been traded to Chicago...the south side of Chicago. The Chicago Tribune claims the White Sox and Padres agreed to a deal to ship the Padres ace to the South Siders sometime within the last 24 hours and are simply awaiting Peavy's OK on the deal. Peavy, however, does not plan on approving the deal within the next few days and Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald claims the Cubs remain Peavy's #1 destination choice.
Though the prospects in the trade remain unnamed, the Padres are in desperate need of a shortstop. Logic, therefore, would indicate that the Sox would be relinquishing top middle infield prospect Gordon Beckham, the 8th overall pick of the 2008 draft. Beckham, who the Sox shifted over to 2B in the minors to accommodate the now struggling Alexei Ramirez at SS, has posted wOBAs in the mid-.370s at both A and AA. Though minor league numbers rarely translate directly into big league success, Beckham's strong ISO (.180), quality walk rate (9.8 BB%) and above average defense in the middle of the field have tagged him as one of the game's most interesting prospects to watch.
Names directly speculated in the deal are top pitching prospect and #1 draft pick from 2007 Aaron Poreda (LHP, 100 MPH fastball), Clayton Richard (LHP) and possible major league bullpen names like Matt Thorton and Scott Linebrink.
Peavy, who is due $11 million in 2009, will also be owed a sum of $52 million from 2010-2012 and, given his no trade clause, will probably require his $22 million option for 2013 be picked up.
What do you think Chicago fans? Are Cubs fan jealous? Are Sox fans happy? Is it a good idea for the South Side to obliterate its already weak minor league system for one of the game's best pitchers?
________________
1:30PM UPDATE: ESPN.com talked to Peavy's agent, who indicates that Peavy is leaning against accepting the deal.
If I had to make a bet on it, I would guess that Jake would say he's not ready to take that step today," Axelrod said. "But he wouldn't necessarily preclude it at any time in the future.________________
"We aren't hiding anything from anybody. Jake has a strong preference to stay in the National League. He has a comfort zone there, he's been successful, and he's won a Cy Young Award. I don't know that on May 21, that preference has eroded very much. From our point of view we may say, 'Let's give [the Padres] more time and see if a National League team might step up over the next six weeks.'"If I had to make a bet on it, I would guess that Jake would say he's not ready to take that step today," Axelrod said. "But he wouldn't necessarily preclude it at any time in the future.
"We aren't hiding anything from anybody. Jake has a strong preference to stay in the National League. He has a comfort zone there, he's been successful, and he's won a Cy Young Award. I don't know that on May 21, that preference has eroded very much. From our point of view we may say, 'Let's give [the Padres] more time and see if a National League team might step up over the next six weeks.'
10:50AM UPDATE: Peter Gammons says Beckham is not part of the Peavy deal.
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According to Jon Heymen of Sports Illustrated, Jake Peavy has finally been traded to Chicago...the south side of Chicago. The Chicago Tribune claims the White Sox and Padres agreed to a deal to ship the Padres ace to the South Siders sometime within the last 24 hours and are simply awaiting Peavy's OK on the deal. Peavy, however, does not plan on approving the deal within the next few days and Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald claims the Cubs remain Peavy's #1 destination choice.
Though the prospects in the trade remain unnamed, the Padres are in desperate need of a shortstop. Logic, therefore, would indicate that the Sox would be relinquishing top middle infield prospect Gordon Beckham, the 8th overall pick of the 2008 draft. Beckham, who the Sox shifted over to 2B in the minors to accommodate the now struggling Alexei Ramirez at SS, has posted wOBAs in the mid-.370s at both A and AA. Though minor league numbers rarely translate directly into big league success, Beckham's strong ISO (.180), quality walk rate (9.8 BB%) and above average defense in the middle of the field have tagged him as one of the game's most interesting prospects to watch.
Names directly speculated in the deal are top pitching prospect and #1 draft pick from 2007 Aaron Poreda (LHP, 100 MPH fastball), Clayton Richard (LHP) and possible major league bullpen names like Matt Thorton and Scott Linebrink.
Peavy, who is due $11 million in 2009, will also be owed a sum of $52 million from 2010-2012 and, given his no trade clause, will probably require his $22 million option for 2013 be picked up.
What do you think Chicago fans? Are Cubs fan jealous? Are Sox fans happy? Is it a good idea for the South Side to obliterate its already weak minor league system for one of the game's best pitchers?
DeRosa interview on Sports Central
Yesterday I heard a interview from Friday’s edition of Sports Central with David Kaplan on WGN 720am with Mark DeRosa. It was interesting to hear Mark’s perspective on being traded and how he found out about it. Mark was saying he was following the trade rumors of when his name was being mentioned in the Peavy trades. He never heard anything from Hendry and when the Peavy rumors ended he assumed it was over.
He was on the golf course with former Brave’s teammates Chipper Jones and Brian McCan starting hole number three when he received a call from Jim Hendry. He wasn’t sure if he should answerer the phone because he figured he was traded when he saw Hendry was calling. He said he has a good relationship with Henrdy, but they usually didn't communicate over the phone. Chipper Jones told him he has to answer it so he did. After talking to Hendry he called his wife and told her he was traded. She told him to turn off his phone and enjoy the rest of his game that there was nothing to do. When he turned his phone back on after the game he said he had over 20 messages from people. He said it was one of his worse golf games and that he was like “numb” for the rest of the day.
He sounded that he would really miss Chicago and is still devastated. Kaplan asked him if he would be open to signing as a free agent again after this season and he said that he doesn’t like to burn any bridges so he would be open. However, he sounded doubtful and that he was still hurt that the Cubs traded him. He was a nice guy and will be missed on the field and in the clubhouse.
He was on the golf course with former Brave’s teammates Chipper Jones and Brian McCan starting hole number three when he received a call from Jim Hendry. He wasn’t sure if he should answerer the phone because he figured he was traded when he saw Hendry was calling. He said he has a good relationship with Henrdy, but they usually didn't communicate over the phone. Chipper Jones told him he has to answer it so he did. After talking to Hendry he called his wife and told her he was traded. She told him to turn off his phone and enjoy the rest of his game that there was nothing to do. When he turned his phone back on after the game he said he had over 20 messages from people. He said it was one of his worse golf games and that he was like “numb” for the rest of the day.
He sounded that he would really miss Chicago and is still devastated. Kaplan asked him if he would be open to signing as a free agent again after this season and he said that he doesn’t like to burn any bridges so he would be open. However, he sounded doubtful and that he was still hurt that the Cubs traded him. He was a nice guy and will be missed on the field and in the clubhouse.
