The Cubs Should Really Consider Signing Kelly Johnson

The legend of Mark DeRosa. All Cubs fans know it, all Cubs fans believe it. Hell, even Cleveland and St. Louis became enamored with it briefly in 2009. What is this legend you ask? It's the tale of the everyday journeyman utility guy turned everyday useful player -- the loveable underdog given superstar status. He's aging, but has quality skills and great club presence. Some call him a "grinder." Others call him a leader. Everyone knows him, everyone talks about him, and every year the tales of his value gets bigger and bigger, until Mark DeRosa becomes baseball's Paul Bunyan.

Cubs fans I know still look at the situation retroactively. The Cubs should have never traded him and signed Bradley. Past is past, but now the Cubs are in the market for an outfielder. Some, like our good pal TBO, have suggested the Cubs resign Mark DeRosa (who is asking somewhere in the 3 years, $30 million range). Others, like Hendry, want Marlon Byrd to fill the hole.

Me? I want Mark DeRosa's younger brother, Kelly Johnson. Recently non-tendered by the Braves (DeRosa's former team), Johnson is a 2B/LF with poor infield defense (career -7.4 UZR/15), above average outfield defense (career +17.4 UZR/150 in left over a limited sample size of 648.1 innings), double digit home run power and above average walking abilities (sound familiar?). In 2007, Johnson hit .287/.375/457 (.831 OPS) and was worth +3.2 WAR. In 2008, Johnson hit for a little less power with a triple slash line of .276/.349/.446 (.795 OPS) and was still worth +2.2 WAR. By contast, DeRosa's 2007 OPS was .792 (+2.6 WAR) and in 2008, it was .857 (+3.8 WAR).

Johnson, who was entering his first off-season for arbitration, is 7 years DeRosa's junior and has the superior ISO (career .166 mark versus DeRosa's career .149 mark) and BB% (career 10.9 BB% versus DeRosa's career 8.6% mark). Last year, Johnson had an incredibly disappointing season, posting a .224/.303/.389 (.692) triple slash line. He did this despite cutting the strike out rate for the third straight season (17.8% in 2009), rebounding his walk rate by a half percentage compared to 2008, and increasing his power output compared to the previous season. The problem? A .249 BABIP (.313 xBABIP). Normalize the bad luck and, assuming that all additional hits would have been singles, Johnson's 2009 triple slash line turns into a much prettier .278/.350/.443 (.797 OPS) line. By contrast, Mark DeRosa (a career .767 OPS hitter entering his age 35 season) posted a .752 OPS last season with a .286 BABIP. DeRosa's xBABIP last season? .285.

So while the Cardinals and some other teams like the Yankees talk about bringing the legend of Mark DeRosa to their club, maybe the Cubs should consider his younger, healthier, equally versatile doppleganger who just happens to have a better career ISO and BB%. You could do some much worse in left (you know, like Juan Pierre or Marlon Byrd) for so much more money. A $9 million, three year deal with a $6 million option ($1 million buyout) for 2013 sounds fair and reasonable; it's a low risk less deal (less then 1 WAR expectational value) with high upside.

But then again, Kelly Johnson is not one of "Jim Hendry's guys"...

And now, dear readers, I have a Lingerie Football game to attend. Pics will come tomorrow...

Revisiting DME's Hatred Of Dustin Pedroia

I made a lot of predictions for the 2009 season. Some were correct (see Javier Vazquez, Josh Beckett (May-August), Justin Verlander, Dice-K, et. al). Some were incredibly wrong (see John Lester, Kevin Youkilis, Gavin Floyd, Felix Hernandez, et. al). But one thing that I have adamantly argued, perhaps more than my love for Dan Haren is how overrated I thought Dustin Pedroia was -- both in real life and fantasy -- heading into this season.

I had some harsh things to say about Dustin Pedroia going into 2009:

"Something about an MVP who can't hit 20 HRs in unsatisfying. While undeniably useful as 5 category 2B last year, his increasing GB/FB ratio and declining BB% are worrisome. With a strong LD% and speed, his high AVG should persist, but don't expect anything above 15 HRs. Considering that all but a few second basemen are second tier, it's not worth wasting a third round pick on a 2B (unless you get Kinlser or Utley at a ridiculous discount) when you can have the negligibly worse Mark DeRosa 12 rounds later."

Was I right to hate on Pedroia? Let's look at their comparative batting lines.

DeRosa 2009:
.250/.319/.433 (.327 wOBA),23 HR, 78 R, 78 RBI, 3 SB

Pedroia 2009:
.296/.371/.447 (.360 wOBA), 15 HR, 115 R, 72 RBI, 20 SB

Pedroia definitely regressed some this season, but retained most of his value from 2008. Yahoo ranked Pedroia as the 8th best 2B and 49th best fantasy player overall. Pedroia made some gains in his peripherals (increased walk rate, decreased strikeout rate) and regressed in others (Pedroia saw his ISO fall from .167 to .152, he clipped less LD's and his speed score dipped a full point (which can be noticed in the decrease in SB%). Pedroia' .360 wOBA, however, is hardly anything to sneeze at (let alone for a second basemen) and his 2009 level of production is more akin to what I have associated his skill set with. Take note that Pedroia's Yahoo ranking going into 2009 was 23. He was clearly overrated last season, but perhaps after a more "milding" 2009, Pedroia's 2010 fantasy value will be more break-even than loss.

DeRosa, on the other hand, took a nose dive in the batting average department due to a nose dive in line drives (from +22% from 2006-2008 to 16.6% in 2009) and therefore BABIP (.286 BABIP in 2009 [in line with his seasonal xBABIP], despite a career .315 mark). Perhaps much of it has to due with the wrist injury, but DeRosa's ISO fell from .196 to .183, the walk rate dipped from the double digit rates he posted on the Cubs to 8.4% and the strikeout rate also increased. The resulting .327 wOBA was league average and Fangraphs generously valued him at a temperate 1.6 WAR due to the fact that he played only slightly below average defense at 2B last year (see Positional Adjustment). DeRosa was ranked as the 144th player going into 2009 and ended up being #183 by the end of the season (21st best 2B, behind a handful of undrafted players). These are not good signs for a soon-to-be 35 year old 2B coming off of wrist surgery.

So yeah, I was wrong about DeRosa in 2009.

However, if DeRosa was healthy and not playing on the shitty offensive "team" that was the Indians for half of last season, who knows what his numbers would have looked like. Even with the regression in BB%, K%, and ISO, if you were to adjust DeRosa's 2009 batting line for a .315 BABIP (I have to make the assumption that DeRosa's wrist problems hindered his ability to drive the ball in 2009, given his Matt Kemp-like LD% from 2006-2008), DeRosa's 2009 BA would be .282, his OBP would be in the .350 range and, assuming the same ISO for the additional hits, his SLG would be around .533. A .282/.350/.533 batting line (.883 OPS) is nothing to sneeze at and would have provided much more offensive value than Pedroia's .813 OPS.

So what am I saying? Basically, DeRosa, in my opinion got screwed by his wrist injury and bad luck. If I am right and DeRosa can fully recover from his off-season wrist surgery (ask Derrek Lee, it's definitely not something that's easy to come back from), he has the potential to continue to provide much value, wherever his team may play him.

I refuse to apologize for my prediction because although I may have been wrong, I still believe in DeRosa. A 25 HR season with 100 R/RBI was not out of the question if he was on a better team and healthy. Let's hope he gets fixed up for next year and continue to be more than just the clubhouse presence he is well known for (and the Cubs so desperately missed).

On a separate note, A-Rod went 0-4 last night with 3 K's. Let the flurry of "A-Rod is unclutch" headlines begin...

DeRosa interview on Sports Central

Yesterday I heard a interview from Friday’s edition of Sports Central with David Kaplan on WGN 720am with Mark DeRosa. It was interesting to hear Mark’s perspective on being traded and how he found out about it. Mark was saying he was following the trade rumors of when his name was being mentioned in the Peavy trades. He never heard anything from Hendry and when the Peavy rumors ended he assumed it was over.

He was on the golf course with former Brave’s teammates Chipper Jones and Brian McCan starting hole number three when he received a call from Jim Hendry. He wasn’t sure if he should answerer the phone because he figured he was traded when he saw Hendry was calling. He said he has a good relationship with Henrdy, but they usually didn't communicate over the phone. Chipper Jones told him he has to answer it so he did. After talking to Hendry he called his wife and told her he was traded. She told him to turn off his phone and enjoy the rest of his game that there was nothing to do. When he turned his phone back on after the game he said he had over 20 messages from people. He said it was one of his worse golf games and that he was like “numb” for the rest of the day.

He sounded that he would really miss Chicago and is still devastated. Kaplan asked him if he would be open to signing as a free agent again after this season and he said that he doesn’t like to burn any bridges so he would be open. However, he sounded doubtful and that he was still hurt that the Cubs traded him. He was a nice guy and will be missed on the field and in the clubhouse.

Looking at the DeRosa trade

Mark DeRosa was traded to Cleveland to join his former teammate Kerry Wood. There has been much controversy about this trade and whether it was considered positive or negative. It seems like more people were upset about this move than letting Kerry Wood leave via free agency. Kerry Wood never lived up to his potential in Chicago after his big splash with his 20 strike outs game in his rookie season. With Carlos Marmol and other bullpen options everyone knows we didn’t need to overpay for him.

In DeRosa’s short two years as Chicago Cub he became a fan favorite because of his work ethic, attitude, performance, and versatility. Mark Derosa always gave his best effort. He never dogged it like other players we have. In addition, he never complained about playing multiple positions and batting anywhere in the order. He played every position with his best effort and provided top defense everywhere around the diamond. I actually felt his best defensive position was third base followed by second and then right field. I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes regular third basemen in the future.

Mark DeRosa was a big part of the Cubs success last year and helping them winning the National League central division title. Last season DeRosa led the Cubs in runs scored with 103, was fourth on the club in doubles with 30, tied for second in triples with three (others with three were Fukudome and Lee), fourth in home runs with 21, was third in RBI’s with 87, fourth in total bases with 243, fifth in walks with 69, and has a solid average of 285 with a on base percentage of 376, and a slugging percentage of 481. He also stole 6 bases and was not caught stealing. That shows he is a smart base runner because that isn’t really a part of his game. He did all of this in 505 at bats (fourth on team) while playing 149 games (Tied with Ramirez and Theriot). No matter where DeRosa played being his 95 games at second base, 59 in the outfield, 22 at third base while filling in for Ramriez when injured or to give him a day off, or his one game at first and shortstop respectively, DeRosa never missed a beat with the glove or let it affect his bat.

Mark DeRosa was coming off a career year at 33 years old. The chances of him repeating are slim. Even if he does in 2009, he will leave as a free agent after the 2009 season when his 3 year deal will end. Hendry signed him for a reasonably priced deal, and he will demand a big pay raise because of his production and versatility if his 2009 is similar to 2008. The Cubs have the habit of keeping players or getting players way past their prime. With trading DeRosa now, they are selling high and getting the most they can for him. The Cubs didn’t get any top prospects, but DeRosa isn’t a marquee player and they seemed to get the most they would for him.

They have other options for second base and other needs to fill on the team. The Cubs signed Aaron Miles who is another career utility man, like DeRosa was before he came to the Cubs. Miles is a switch hitter who will probably share playing time with Fontenot
at second base. The Cubs still have moves to make so we will see how the team shapes up.

Now that the Cubs have some young pitching prospects and they appear ready to make another move or wait until the right opportunity occurs. They could have the barging chips needed to land Jake Peavy, Brian Roberts Jr., Chone Figgins, and other players they are targeting.

Mark DeRosa will be missed in Chicago, but if Hendry can follow up with the right move, this will make the Cubs much stronger in the long run.