Showing posts with label Juan Pierre. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Juan Pierre. Show all posts
Dan Bernstein Loses It
On our latest podcast, I referenced a massive blow up by Dan Bernstein over the summer on the Chicago radio airwaves. Not surprisingly it made it to youtube. First he loses it over Juan Pierre, cools down over Lebron, and loses it again over Dimiti Young. All capped off with his seizure at the 5:10 mark.
Who Needs Hits To Score Runs?
Juan Pierre was walked (SHOCKING!), stole second and third, and then Konerko sac flied to score him.
I'm sure this kind of thing is more common than I realize, but I think it's a nice little tid-bit to notice when it happens.
The Underrated Juan Pierre?
Everyone who follows REAL baseball hates Juan Pierre because he doesn't walk. Here's a line said by the butter face (and butter body) loving Steve Phillips a few years ago
As dumb of a comment as that was because Phillips was talking about Pierre during an actual game, that comments sums up perfectly Pierre's value for fantasy leagues. And the best of all, because essentially everyone is aware of Pierre's actual value in real life, they perceive that low value for Pierre in fantasy as well. You could easily get Pierre for a dollar in your auction league or in the 20th-plus round in your snake league. And considering the production you're going to be getting from Pierre, he's almost my Elijah Dukes of this year! Almost.
First of all, Pierre's real life situation will benefit his fantasy value. The White Sox traded for Pierre after their awful OF defense and woes from last year. This, along with the fact that the organization has been looking for a "pro typical" lead off man since the days of Scotty Pods in 2005, Pierre will start for the team. Unlike his days as a Dodger, Pierre will get plenty of ABs due to his positive defense and his ability to act like a "pro typical" lead off man.
So what is this pro typical lead off man you ask? A smart GM would say it's a guy who has a high on base and above average speed- ideally with a very good stolen base percentage. Essentially Ichiro Suzuki. Guy like Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramierz, Michael Bourne and even Scott Podsednik and to a lesser extent Jacoby Ellsbury (to a lesser extent because the Red Sox aren't sold on Ellsbury batting first but he fits this mold) are the guys teams want leading off for their club. And Juan Pierre will be this man for the White Sox.
So now that we've established that Pierre will get consistent playing time (although I shouldn't have had to convince you very hard. Oh, and Andruw Jones will not take consistent playing time away from Pierre- at least not from an ABs perspective), it's time for the bulk of my argument: Pierre will get you runs, average, and stolen bases. Maybe even a home run or two because of that HR friendly park known as The Cell.
Sure, some people like DME will tell you that stolen bases are very deep this year. And that's true to an extent that more and more guys (like Ellsbury, Bourne, Rajai Davis, Nyjer Morgan etc) are popping up more than ever. But the thing is you have to draft one of this guys. You will be hard pressed to find a guy like this in waivers (unless an owner in your league is dumb and drops a Nyjer Morgan like guy). Sure, you will be able to find guys like Emilio Bonifacio who can steal you 20+ bases, but you're also stuck with his .250 batting average as well. You can make up things like SB and HR, but you can not make up average stats like batting average (and ERA and WHIP). Just like if you're a straight C student in high school and you get straight A's your first semester senior, you still will have a C average- just now it's probably a C+. Maybe.
You will be very hard pressed to find a guy with a close to .300 batting average AND be a high base stealer for you. You will always be able to get R, RBI, and especially HR off of waivers, but not high SB/ high AVG guys. Sure a guy like a Nyjer Morgan or Rajai Davis will probably appear in waiver this year, but because of the rarity of this position- you better hope you have the #1 waiver priority or enough FAAB money left because these guys don't pop out of waivers like closers do.
Juan Pierre has a career .301 batting average. In the past years, that average has dipped a bit (.308, .283, .293, .292 from '09, '08, '07, and '06 respectively) but that's still pretty good and Pierre hasn't gotten consistent playing time. And boy howdy does this man steal bases. Over the past two years, Pierre has only swiped 30 and 40 bags in 2009 and 2008 respectively. However, he's also gotten the least amount of at bats since his rookie year the past two years. From 2001 to 2007, Pierre has gotten an average of 716.57 at bats per year. But the past two years, his at bats have dropped down to an average of only 415.5. If Pierre had gotten 300 more at bats (and keeping his SB rate constant), he would have had about 70 SB in 2008 and 50 in 2009. Considering Pierre is leading off giving him more ABs and because he should be starting the vast majority of the season, it's very reasonable to assume Pierre could get at least 700 ABs and 50+ swipes next year.
Considering guys with around .300 batting averages and 40+ SB bases are going in about the 12-15 round in most snake leagues, to get Juan Pierre would be a steal for you. No pun intended
You know, a lot of people are down on Juan Pierre because of this whole "on base" stat, but the guy hits well and steals bases- and that's a good thing
As dumb of a comment as that was because Phillips was talking about Pierre during an actual game, that comments sums up perfectly Pierre's value for fantasy leagues. And the best of all, because essentially everyone is aware of Pierre's actual value in real life, they perceive that low value for Pierre in fantasy as well. You could easily get Pierre for a dollar in your auction league or in the 20th-plus round in your snake league. And considering the production you're going to be getting from Pierre, he's almost my Elijah Dukes of this year! Almost.
First of all, Pierre's real life situation will benefit his fantasy value. The White Sox traded for Pierre after their awful OF defense and woes from last year. This, along with the fact that the organization has been looking for a "pro typical" lead off man since the days of Scotty Pods in 2005, Pierre will start for the team. Unlike his days as a Dodger, Pierre will get plenty of ABs due to his positive defense and his ability to act like a "pro typical" lead off man.
So what is this pro typical lead off man you ask? A smart GM would say it's a guy who has a high on base and above average speed- ideally with a very good stolen base percentage. Essentially Ichiro Suzuki. Guy like Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramierz, Michael Bourne and even Scott Podsednik and to a lesser extent Jacoby Ellsbury (to a lesser extent because the Red Sox aren't sold on Ellsbury batting first but he fits this mold) are the guys teams want leading off for their club. And Juan Pierre will be this man for the White Sox.
So now that we've established that Pierre will get consistent playing time (although I shouldn't have had to convince you very hard. Oh, and Andruw Jones will not take consistent playing time away from Pierre- at least not from an ABs perspective), it's time for the bulk of my argument: Pierre will get you runs, average, and stolen bases. Maybe even a home run or two because of that HR friendly park known as The Cell.
Sure, some people like DME will tell you that stolen bases are very deep this year. And that's true to an extent that more and more guys (like Ellsbury, Bourne, Rajai Davis, Nyjer Morgan etc) are popping up more than ever. But the thing is you have to draft one of this guys. You will be hard pressed to find a guy like this in waivers (unless an owner in your league is dumb and drops a Nyjer Morgan like guy). Sure, you will be able to find guys like Emilio Bonifacio who can steal you 20+ bases, but you're also stuck with his .250 batting average as well. You can make up things like SB and HR, but you can not make up average stats like batting average (and ERA and WHIP). Just like if you're a straight C student in high school and you get straight A's your first semester senior, you still will have a C average- just now it's probably a C+. Maybe.
You will be very hard pressed to find a guy with a close to .300 batting average AND be a high base stealer for you. You will always be able to get R, RBI, and especially HR off of waivers, but not high SB/ high AVG guys. Sure a guy like a Nyjer Morgan or Rajai Davis will probably appear in waiver this year, but because of the rarity of this position- you better hope you have the #1 waiver priority or enough FAAB money left because these guys don't pop out of waivers like closers do.
Juan Pierre has a career .301 batting average. In the past years, that average has dipped a bit (.308, .283, .293, .292 from '09, '08, '07, and '06 respectively) but that's still pretty good and Pierre hasn't gotten consistent playing time. And boy howdy does this man steal bases. Over the past two years, Pierre has only swiped 30 and 40 bags in 2009 and 2008 respectively. However, he's also gotten the least amount of at bats since his rookie year the past two years. From 2001 to 2007, Pierre has gotten an average of 716.57 at bats per year. But the past two years, his at bats have dropped down to an average of only 415.5. If Pierre had gotten 300 more at bats (and keeping his SB rate constant), he would have had about 70 SB in 2008 and 50 in 2009. Considering Pierre is leading off giving him more ABs and because he should be starting the vast majority of the season, it's very reasonable to assume Pierre could get at least 700 ABs and 50+ swipes next year.
Considering guys with around .300 batting averages and 40+ SB bases are going in about the 12-15 round in most snake leagues, to get Juan Pierre would be a steal for you. No pun intended
White Sox Acquire Juan Pierre...Why?
In another episode of "useless moves by Kenny Williams," the White Sox GM has traded two young prospects with potential -- RP Jon Link (great stuff, poor control) and SP John Ely (average-slightly above average "stuff", above average control) -- for the infamous Juan Pierre. The Sox, perpetually in search of "the prototypical lead-off man" (circa 1942), have finally found their man and can say sayonara to that old, shitty and greedy player known as Scotty Pods, who wants a ridiculous $5-7 mil per for 2-3 seasons...or have they?
Scotty Pods is a career .720 OPS hitter. Juan Pierre's career OPS? .720.
Scotty Pods is 33 years old. Juan Pierre? 32 years old.
Scotty Pods had the 39th weakest arm (-2.1 runs) in the OF amongst all OFs given 400+ PAs. Juan Pierre's ranking? 41st to last (-1.9 runs).
Scotty Pods' career speed score? 7.1. Juan Pierre? 7.3.
On that same topic, Scotty Pods has a career stolen base success rate of 76.7% (286/373). Juan Pierre? 74.8% (459/614).
Sure, Juan Pierre has been worth +33.5 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAR) --one half of which came in 2002 -- against Scotty Pods' career -8.0 FRAR, but Pods is nonetheless a somewhat averageish defender. It's also worth noting that Pods has hit 3x as many HR in 1/2 as many career PAs (in fact, Juan Pierre has exactly one home runs in his last 1,606 PAs).
And because baseball fans love irrelevant, bizarre and situational stats, I will also point out that both Juan Pierre (.910) and Scotty Pods (.905) had almost identical OPS's in their respective teams World Series bids.
What's the point? Juan Pierre is not much of an upgrade over Scotty Pods. The Sox are saying no to Scotty Pods' 2 year, $10-14 million demands in favor of a player with slightly better defense and equally crappy offense for $10 million for two season plus a pair of prospects. It just seems like the Sox, if that hell bent on acquiring a shitty OF to play lead off, could have just resigned Pods at approximately the same monetary cost without the waste of prospects. It's not exactly like the White Sox are overwhelmed with quality prospects (I see a lonely Tyler Flowers and overrated Jordan Danks, but who else remains?). I wonder if Kenny Williams noticed that Mike Cameron was available until a couple of days ago. Maybe he just wanted another overpaid outfielder to keep Alex Rios company/distract the fans from the terrible Alex Rios acquisition.
Oh, well. That's Kenny Williams for you.
Scotty Pods is a career .720 OPS hitter. Juan Pierre's career OPS? .720.
Scotty Pods is 33 years old. Juan Pierre? 32 years old.
Scotty Pods had the 39th weakest arm (-2.1 runs) in the OF amongst all OFs given 400+ PAs. Juan Pierre's ranking? 41st to last (-1.9 runs).
Scotty Pods' career speed score? 7.1. Juan Pierre? 7.3.
On that same topic, Scotty Pods has a career stolen base success rate of 76.7% (286/373). Juan Pierre? 74.8% (459/614).
Sure, Juan Pierre has been worth +33.5 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAR) --one half of which came in 2002 -- against Scotty Pods' career -8.0 FRAR, but Pods is nonetheless a somewhat averageish defender. It's also worth noting that Pods has hit 3x as many HR in 1/2 as many career PAs (in fact, Juan Pierre has exactly one home runs in his last 1,606 PAs).
And because baseball fans love irrelevant, bizarre and situational stats, I will also point out that both Juan Pierre (.910) and Scotty Pods (.905) had almost identical OPS's in their respective teams World Series bids.
What's the point? Juan Pierre is not much of an upgrade over Scotty Pods. The Sox are saying no to Scotty Pods' 2 year, $10-14 million demands in favor of a player with slightly better defense and equally crappy offense for $10 million for two season plus a pair of prospects. It just seems like the Sox, if that hell bent on acquiring a shitty OF to play lead off, could have just resigned Pods at approximately the same monetary cost without the waste of prospects. It's not exactly like the White Sox are overwhelmed with quality prospects (I see a lonely Tyler Flowers and overrated Jordan Danks, but who else remains?). I wonder if Kenny Williams noticed that Mike Cameron was available until a couple of days ago. Maybe he just wanted another overpaid outfielder to keep Alex Rios company/distract the fans from the terrible Alex Rios acquisition.
Oh, well. That's Kenny Williams for you.
