Part Ten: NFC Defensive Players / Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler In 2011?

First of all, this list is based upon stats from Week One through Week Fifteen. Secondly, I am a firm believer in using statistics- especially advanced statistics such as DVOA, DYAR, and WPA. You can see the statistics to back up my selections here

DEFENSIVE ENDS

Starters: Jared Allen (MIN), Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)
Back Up: Jason Babin (PHI)

Apologies to: Chris Clemons (SEA)

DEFENSIVE TACKLES

Starters: Darnell Dockett (ARI), Justin Smith (SF)
Back Up: Cullen Jenkins (PHI)

Apologies to: Ray McDonald (SF), Ndamukong Suh (DET)

Linebackers

Starters: DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Patrick Willis (SF), Aldon Smith (SF)
Back Ups: Ryan Kerrigan (WAS), NaVorro Bowman (SF), London Fletcher (WAS)

Apologies to: Lance Briggs (CHI), Brian Urlacher (CHI)

SAFETIES

Starters: Kam Chancellor (SEA), Earl Thomas (SEA)
Back Up: Dashon Goldson (SF)

Apologies to: Roman Harper (NO), Quintin Mikell (PHI)

CORNERBACKS

Starters: Carlos Rodgers (SF), Charles Woodson (GB)
Back Up: Brandon Browner (SEA)

Apologies to: Charles Tillman (CHI)

Part Seven: NFC Offensive Players / Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler in 2011?

First of all, this list is based upon stats from Week One through Week Fifteen. Secondly, I am a firm believer in using statistics- especially advanced statistics such as DVOA, DYAR, and WPA. You can see the statistics to back up my selection here

QUARTERBACK
Starter: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Back Up #1: Drew Brees (NO)
Subjective Back Up #2: Jay Cutler (CHI)
Objective Back Up #2: Tony Romo (DAL)

Apologies to: Matt Ryan (ATL), Matthew Stafford (DET), and Eli Manning (NYG)

RUNNING BACK
Starter: LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Should Be Named But Can't Play Due To Injury: Matt Forte (CHI), DeMarco Murray (DAL), Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Actual Back Ups: Marshawn Lynch (SEA), Frank Gore (SF)

Apologies to: Michael Turner (ATL), Jonathan Stewart (CAR)

WIDE RECEIVER
Starters: Calvin Johnson (DET), Jordy Nelson (GB)
Back Ups: Victor Cruz (NYG), Laurent Robinson (DAL)

Apologies to: Steve Smith (CAR), Roddy White (ATL), Hakeem Nicks (NYG), Greg Jennings (GB), Marques Colston (NO)

TIGHT END
Starter: Jimmy Graham (NO)
Back Up: Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

Apologies to: Jason Witten (DAL), Jermichael Finley (GB)

Part Five: Stats Of NFC Defensive Players / Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler In 2011?

DEFENSIVE ENDS

Sacks
1) Jared Allen (MIN)
1) Jason Babin (PHI)
3) Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)
4) Chris Long (STL)
5) Chris Clemons (SEA)

WPA
1) Jared Allen (MIN)
2) Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)
3) Calais Campbell (ARI)
4) Chris Clemons (SEA)
5) Cliff Avril (DET)

EPA
1) Jared Allen (MIN)
2) Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)
3) Jason Babin (PHI)
4) Julius Peppers (CHI)
5) Chris Clemons (SEA)

DEFENSIVE TACKLES

Sacks
1) Justin Smith (SF)
1) Henry Melton (CHI)
1) Cullen Jenkins (GB)
1) Ray McDonald (SF)
5) Amobi Okoye (CHI)

WPA
1) Darnell Dockett (ARI)
2) Justin Smith (SF)
3) Cullen Jenkins (PHI)
4) Ndamukong Suh (DET)
5) Ray McDonald (SF)
5) Jay Ratliff (DAL)

EPA
1) Darnell Dockett (ARI)
2) Justin Smith (SF)
3) Barry Cofield (WAS)
4) Cullen Jenkins (PHI)
5) Ray McDonald (SF)

LINEBACKERS

Sacks
1) DeMarcus Ware (DAL)
2) Aldon Smith (SF)
3) Brian Orakpo (WAS)
3) Ryan Kerrigan (WAS)
5) Ahmad Brooks (SF)

Total Tackles
1) NaVorro Bowman (SF)
2) James Laurinaitis (STL)
3) London Fletcher (WAS)
4) James Anderson (CAR)
5) Lance Briggs (CHI)

Tackles For Loss
1) DeMarcus Ware (DAL)
2) Sean Weatherspoon (ATL)
3) Daryl Washington (ARI)
4) Aldon Smith (SF)
4) Ahmad Brooks (SF)
4) NaVorro Bowman (SF)

WPA
1) Sean Lee (DAL)
2) DeAndre Levy (DET)
3) Michael Boley (NYG)
4) James Laurinairtis (STL)
4) Ryan Kerrigan (WAS)

EPA
1) Stephen Tulloch (DET)
2) Lance Briggs (CHI)
3) London Fletcher (WAS)
4) Ryan Kerrigan (WAS)
5) Brian Urlacher (CHI)

SAFETIES

Interceptions
1) Dashon Goldson (6) (SF)
2) Kam Chancellor (4) (SEA)
2) Thomas DeCoud (4) (ATL)
2) Charlie Peprah (4) (GB)
2) Kurt Coleman (4) (PHI)

WPA
1) Kam Chancellor (SEA)
2) Earl Thomas (SEA)
3) Dashon Goldson (SF)
4) Roman Harper (NO)
5) Quintin Mikell (STL)

EPA
1) Kam Chancellor (SEA)
2) Earl Thomas (SEA)
3) Roman Harper (NO)
4) Quintin Mikell (PHI)
5) Donte Whitner (SF)

CORNERBACKS

Interceptions
1) Charles Woodson (7) (GB)
2) Carlos Rogers (6) (SF)
2) Brandon Browner (6) (SEA)
4) Corey Webster (5) (NYG)
5) 5 tied with (4)

DVOA Against Opposing #1 Wide Outs
1) Detroit Lions
2) Seattle Seahawks
3) Chicago Bears
4) Philadelphia Eagles
5) San Francisco 49ers

DVOA Against Opposing #2 Wide Outs
1) Seattle Seahawks
2) San Francisco 49ers
3) Detroit Lions
4) Washington Redskins
5) Chicago Bears

WPA
1) Carlos Rogers (SF)
2) Brandon Browner (SEA)
3) Charles Woodson (GB)
4) Trumon Williams (GB)
5) Aquib Talib (TB)

EPA
1) Charles Woodson (GB)
2) Brandon Browner (SEA)
3) Carlos Rogers (SF)
4) Charles Tillman (CHI)
5) Eric Wright (DET)

Part Four: Special Teams / Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler In 2011?

NFC KICK RETURNER

Average Yards
1) Ted Ginn Jr. (SF)
2) Randall Cobb (GB)
3) Kealoha Pilares (CAR)

Touchdowns
1) Devin Hester (1) (CHI)
1) Ted Ginn Jr. (1) (SF)
1) Percy Harvin (1) (MIN)
1) Randall Cobb (1) (GB)
1) Kealoha Pilares (1) (CAR)

AFC KICK RETURNER

Average Yards
1) Joe McKnight (NYJ)
2) Antonio Brown (PIT)
3) Josh Cribbs (CIN)

Touchdowns
1) Joe McKnight (1) (NYJ)
1) Jacoby Ford (1) (OAK)
1) Tommie Campbell (1) (TEN)

NFC PUNT RETURNER

Average Yards
1) Devin Hester (CHI)
2) Patrick Peterson (ARI)
3) Tedd Ginn Jr (SF)

Touchdowns
1) Patrick Peterson (4) (ARI)
2) Devin Hester (2) (CHI)
3) Darren Sproles (1) (NO)
3) Ted Ginn Jr. (1) (SF)
3) Randall Cobb (1)(GB)
3) Nick Miller (1) (STL)

AFC PUNT RETURNER

Average Yards
1) Javier Arenas (KC)
2) Davone Bess (MIA)
3) Julian Edelman (NE)
3) Marc Mariani (TEN)

Touchdowns
1) Julian Edelman (1) (NE)
1) Eric Decker (1) (DEN)
1) Antonio Brown (1) (PIT)
1) Jacoby Jones (1) (OAK)
1) Lardarius Webb (1) (BAL)
1) Marc Mariani (1) (TEN)
1) Eddie Royal (1) (DEN)
1) Brandon Tate (1) (CIN)

NFC FIELD GOAL KICKERS

Kicking Percentage
1) Connor Barth (TB)
2) Matt Bryant (ATL)
3) Robbie Gould (CHI)

50+ Field Goals
1) Robbie Gould (6-6) (CHI)
2) David Akers (6-7) (SF)
3) Jason Hanson (4-6) (DET)

40-49 Field Goals
1) Connor Barth (11-12) (TB)
2) Dan Bailey (10-12) (DAL)
3) Olindo Mare (7-8) (CAR)

AFC FIELD GOAL KICKERS

Field Goal Percentage
1) Mike Nigent (CIN)
2) Josh Scobee (JAX)
3) Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)

50+ Field Goals
1) Phil Dawson (7-8) (CLE)
2) Sebastian Janikowski (6-8) (OAK)
3) Josh Scobee (5-6) (JAX)

40-49 Field Goals
1) Mike Nugent (11-12) (CIN)
2) Sebastian Janikowski (9-10) (OAK)
3) Rob Bironas (8-9) (TEN)

NFC PUNTERS

Gross Punting Average
1) Andy Lee (SF)
2) Thomas Morstead (NO)
3) John Ryan (SEA)

Net Punting Average
1) Andy Lee (SF)
2) Thomas Morstead (NO)
3) Steve Weatherford (NYG)

Punts Within Opponents 20
1) Jon Ryan (SEA)
2) Donnie Jones (STL)
3) Andy Lee (SF)
3) Sav Rocca (WAS)
3) Matt Bosher (ATL)

AFC PUNTERS

Gross Punting Average
1) Shane Lechler (OAK)
2) Brandon Fields (MIA)
3) Brian Moorman (BUF)

Net Punting Average
1) Britton Colquitt (DEN)
2) Brandon Fields (MIA)
3) Shane Lechler (OAK)

Punts Within Opponents 20
1) Brandon Fields (MIA)
2) Brad Maynard (CLE)
2) Britton Colquitt (DEN)

Part Two: Stats Of NFC Offensive Players / Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler in 2011?

EDITOR'S NOTE: If you do not understand DVOA or DYAR click here. Essentially DYAR is total value throughout the year and DYAR is value per play.

QUARTERBACK

QBR
1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Drew Brees (NO)
3) Tony Romo (DAL)

Completion Percentage
1) Drew Brees (NO)
2) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
3) Tony Romo (DAL)

Yards Per Attempt
1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Eli Manning (NYG)
3) Drew Brees (NO)

Passing Touchdowns
1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Drew Brees (NO)
3) Matthew Stafford (DET)

Interceptions
1) Rex Grossman (WAS)
1) Josh Freeman (TB)
3) Cam Newton (CAR)
4) Eli Manning (NYG)
5) Matthew Stafford (DET)

WPA
1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Drew Brees (NO)
3) Tony Romo (DAL)

DYAR
1) Drew Brees (NO)
2) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
3) Tony Romo (DAL)

DVOA
1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Drew Brees (NO)
3) Tony Romo (DAL)

RUNNING BACKS

Rushing Yards
1) LeSean McCoy (PHI)
2) Michael Turner (ATL)
3) Frank Gore (SF)

Rushing Yards Per Attempt
1) DeMarco Murray (DAL)
2) DeAngello Williams (CAR)
3) Pierre Thomas (NO)

Rushing Touchdowns
1) LeSean McCoy (PHI)
2) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2) Marshawn Lynch (SEA)

WPA
1) Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
2) LaRod Stephens-Howling (ARI)
3) DeMarco Murray (DAL)

DYAR
1) LeSean McCoy (PHI)
2) DeMarco Murray (DAL)
3) Adrian Peterson (MIN)

DVOA
1) LeSean McCoy (PHI)
2) DeMarco Murray (DAL)
3) Jonathan Stewart (CAR)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Receiving Yards
1) Calvin Johnson (DET)
2) Steve Smith (CAR)
3) Victor Cruz (NYG)
4) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
5) Roddy White (ATL)

Receiving Touchdowns
1) Calvin Johnson (DET)
2) Jordy Nelson (GB)
3) Greg Jennings (GB)
3) Laurent Robinson (DAL)
3) Dez Bryant (DAL)

Receptions
1) Roddy White (ATL)
2) Calvin Johnson (DET)
3) Victor Cruz (NYG)
4) Steve Smith (CAR)
4) Percy Harvin (MIN)

WPA
1) Calvin Johnson (DET)
2) Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
3) Victor Cruz (NYG)
4) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
5) Jordy Nelson (GB)

DYAR
1) Calvin Johnson (DET)
2) Jordy Nelson (GB)
3) Victor Cruz (NYG)
4) Marques Colston (NO)
5) Laurent Robinson (DAL)

DVOA
1) Jordy Nelson (GB)
2) Laurent Robinson (DAL)
3) Marques Colston (NO)
4) Victor Crus (NYG)
5) Robert Meachum (NO)

TIGHT ENDS

Receiving Yards
1) Jimmy Graham (NO)
2) Jason Witten (DAL)
3) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

Touchdowns
1) Jimmy Graham (NO)
2) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
3) Jermichael Finley (GB)

Receptions
1) Jimmy Graham (NO)
2) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
3) Jason Witten (DAL)

DYAR
1) Jimmy Graham (NO)
2) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
3) Jake Ballard (NYG)

DVOA
1) Jake Ballard (NYG)
2) Jimmy Graham (NO)
3) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

I will not be doing adjusted line yards or any measurement of how offensive linemen are measured. Not only am I too apathetic but I just think we as fans can not accurately measure individual offensive lineman still.

The NFC Wild Card Picture

Since I decided to write about how I think the AFC wild card teams will turn out I decided to follow it up with my NFC predictions. This list is not how I think will make it to the playoffs, but who has the best chances of not winning their division but still earning a wild card birth.

1) Detroit Lions

I think the Lions are the clear cut favorite to earn at minimum the 6th seed

Pro

The Lions easily have the best defensive line in the NFL led by Donkey Kong (Ndamukong) Suh with Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and the now healthy rookie Nick Fairley. When you have the best D-line in the game you set yourself to have a great defense. Even though the Lions back seven is pretty shaky, their line pressure more than makes up for it. In fact, the Lions are second in the NFC in terms of points per game allowed (first is San Fran).

Not only can the Lions stop teams from scoring but their offense is electric with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson scoring points left and right.

Listen, the Lions are a good football team and no matter what, if you're a good football team you're going to win games and thus earn a playoff birth.

Con

The Lions can be beat

Detroit has some great strength (i.e. their passing game and their D-line) but they do have weaknesses which teams like the 49ers have exploited.

The Lions have a great passing D (6th in the NFL in yards allowed) but a terrible run defense (third to last in rushing yards allowed) and despite how good that front line is, they can be beat by quick passes. They have Aaron Rodgers (twice), Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and even Jay Cutler left on their schedule which all have the ability to find holes in their defense. Plus running backs like Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, and DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart to rush all over the Lions. I'm not saying the Lions aren't good enough to adjust their defense to neutralize all these offenses, they absolutely are (except for maybe Green Bay's) but those offenses aren't a walk in the park either.

The Lions are also extremely one dimensional on offense. It's Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson and that's it. And if you shut down Calvin Johnson then you shut down down the entire Lions offense. Again, no easy feat, but something that can very easily be accomplished.

The 49ers and Falcons showed the league a blueprint on how to beat the Lions- something I'm not sure teams had when the Lions started off 5-0.

Lastly, their schedule is not the easiest. They still have to face Green Bay twice, the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome, and get the San Diego Chargers at home. None of those games are slam dunks to me and three are division games.

2) Philadelphia Eagles

While Eagles certainly have a chance to win their division I think they dug themselves in too much of a whole to win it.

Pro

The Eagles have a top five offense. Right now they are 9th in the NFL (5th in the NFC) in terms of points scored and now that Michael Vick has stopped turning the ball over so much, the Eagles are using RB LeSean McCoy more (and better) and Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant are stepping their game up, this offense looks great. Even though DeSean Jackson has essentially been a no-show all season, this offense can both run on you and pass on you.

The Eagles also have history on their side. Say what you want about Andy Reid but he just wins down the stretch. Remember a few years ago when Donovan McNabb went out and Jeff Garcia won like eight straight games in a row? The Eagles are one of the few teams that I trust to go undefeated the rest of the year.

Con

I think last week was the first week in which Michael Vick finished a game healthy. I like Vince Young and Mike Kafka as back ups to start a game or two but it gets hard to force these guys into crunch time week after week.

The Eagles also have a tough schedule on their plate. They still have the face the Bears (4-3), Patriots (6-2), Jets (4-3), Giants (5-2), and the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington.

Lastly, while the Eagles have really good defensive players on their team, their defensive coordinator is terrible and does not utilize his players effectively. That's what you get when you hire your former offensive line coach to be your defensive coordinator and have nobody showing him tapes on Nnamdi in Oakland on how to use him correctly.

3) Chicago Bears

Call it bias, but be honest, you can not name another team in the NFC that I haven't already named or will win the division.

Pro

Matt Forte. 'Nuff said.

The Bears are actually running a more efficient offense since their debacle in Week Two against the Saints where the blitz friendly Saints D destroyed Cutler. Since then Mike Martz has introduced a heavy dose of Matt Forte in both the passing and rushing game and Cutler has not thrown an interception in three weeks.

The other thing the Bears have on their side is an easy schedule. They still haven't played anyone from the weak AFC West yet, they get the Chargers and Chiefs at home (the former I still believe as a good team and the latter who has one of the best home field advantages- Arrowhead), the Denver Broncos who will probably be led by Brady Quinn, the Oakland Raiders (who will be led by Carson Palmer and watch how terrible Palmer will be the rest of the year), the Lions and Packers at home and Seattle and Minnesota. The only game that scares me is the Packers and the Bears play the Packers very well at Soldier- even against Aaron Rodgers.

Con

It's still turnover prone Jay Cutler. While he's been good of late he still has the potential for 4-5 turnovers every week.

Plus, I don't think the Bears are as good of a team as either the Packers, Lions, Giants, or Eagles which puts them in a disadvantage to try and earn a wild card spot. I think the Lions are guaranteed to get a wild card spot and if I'm picking the Eagles versus the Bears, I'll pick Philly. Especially considering I think the Eagles defeat the Bears this upcoming Monday at Lincoln Field. The Bears are not in the driver's seat to control their own destiny (even though the Bears are currently the 6th seed in the NFC as of the writing of this post).

Neither their offense or defense has been amazing and I don't think either have top five potential. They have not been *that* good at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks or stopping the run and if any team shuts down Matt Forte then their offense is done.

4) Atlanta Falcons

If the playoffs started today, Atlanta would finish 8th (Tampa Bay would be 7th because they defeated the Falcons once this year)

Pro

Atlanta's offense still consists of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. If I'm an opposing defense there's not a single player that I want to say "OK, you try and beat me" like a Kerry Collins led Tennessee Titans with (good) Chris Johnson. The team also has a pass rush (soon to come) of John Abraham and Ray Edwards. The team just came off of a win of the Lions in Detroit and they look like a team finally putting it together.

Con

First losing to Tampa Bay and the Bears, the teams directly ahead of them in the playoffs standings doesn't help them. Secondly, while they have a boatload of talent, they're just jot utilizing it properly. Their offense ranks 17th in points scored per game and 20th in points allowed per game.

Even when this team was clicking (like it was last year when they went 13-3 and earned the first seed in the NFC) I didn't trust them. Matt Ryan for his career has a low YPA (this year, even with Julio Jones, Ryan ranks 26th of all active quarterback behind the greats like Curtis Painter, Joe Flacco, Tarvaris Jackson) and no one on their defense truly scares me either. Clay Matthews scares me. Donkey Kong Suh scares me. Julius Peppers scares me. No one on Atlanta's defense scares me and I said that last year.

5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defeating division rivals New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons always helps with both winning a division and playoff births but this team just looks terrible. Last year, the Bucs won nine games because of the emergence of Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and LaGarette Blount. All three of those guys have taken a step back this year. Blount had been injured, Williams looks terrible and looks like the third best receiver on his team, and Freeman looks like he reverted back to his rookie season rather than improving on his sophomore season.

Tampa just had their bye so we'll see if they fixed their problems but until they show me that they can play like they did last year, then I believe their chances of earning a wild card spot is low.

6) Dallas Cowboys

Pro

Well, they dooooo have the same record as the Philadelphia Eagles, so theoretically it's possible

Con

They have Tony Romo starting at quarterback and they're currently not in first place.

7) St. Louis Rams

OK, here me out. I know they have the worst record in the NFC and only have one win, but if they win their next 9 games they can go 10-6!

There's no amount of money or odds you can give me that I would bet on about the Rams making the playoffs, but coming into the season you could see how front loaded their schedule is (although he all thought San Fran would be just as terrible at the rest of the NFC West).

To me, the Rams are the best worst team and they still get to play Seattle and Arizona twice and the Cleveland Browns. That's five games right there that's winnable and if the Rams do win all those game then they're 6-6 and potentially in the hunt.

Unfortunately they do have to play San Francisco (twice), the Cincinnati Bengals, and Pittsburgh Steelers which would put the Rams back at 7-9 again, but hey, a boy can dream can't he?

There Is No Elite NFC Team

As of right now, all the best team in the NFL, the ones that are considered the cream of the crop, are all in the AFC.

The term "elite" is hard to define. It's like how Justice Potter defined pornography, "I know it when I see it." When I think of elite, it's just a gut, instinctual feeling I get. As a stat guy and a stat blog, it's kind of difficult to write that, but football is less statistical orientated than a sport like baseball. Football is more of a sport you have to watch with your eyes. Bill Barnwell, writer of the best football statistical site right now, Football Outsiders, believes there will never come a day will you can determine how many wins a player is worth. In baseball, we already have that statistic- WAR. But in football, we can't have that statistic because all the pieces have to work together.

As great as Peyton Manning is, he still needs to have (at minimum) five guys block in front of him. He still needs receivers to catch his perfect passes (kind of, I mean Austin freaking Collie is third in the NFL in receiving yards), and he still needs 11 guys on the field to prevent points from being scored (well, SOME points). It's these interweaving parts that determines whether the team gets a W or an L, not just one individual.

And it's these interweaving parts that you have to look at to determine not only how good a team is, but whether a team can be considered elite.

The most important statistic at the end of the day is a win or a loss. You're offense can put up crazy statistical numbers, but if you lose, all those numbers don't mean squat. In fact, in football, if a quarterback tends to put up gaudy; great-fantasy-football numbers, it's almost assuredly that team lost. Jay Cutler went to the pro bowl because the Denver Broncos were down in most of their games in 2008 so Cutler had to throw to try and make up points as quickly, efficiently, and effectively as possible. In fact, Cutler's great year led to an 8-8 record while missing the post-season. It's also kind of like the one guy on a really bad basketball team that seems to put Kobe-lite numbers- I mean, SOMEBODY has to score.

In an ideal world, the best team will be able to score the most amount of points while preventing the most amount of points. But we don't live in an ideal world. But this baseline helps me to determine what factors should be considered to determine elite teams. They are: passing offensive, rushing offense, passing defense, rushing defense, and special teams. I don't know how I would rank the following but in some order I would look at these five factors in how they affect scoring.

But my two most important factors to determine what an elite team is: record and how many points you put up vs the quality of your opponent (i.e. how you won/lost). Kind of like the BCS. And just like the BCS, open to scrutiny.

First, what is your record? At the end of the day, all you need to do is win the game. Any professional player will tell you, it doesn't matter what their stat line is as long as they win. And if you're an elite team, you find a way to win. Are the New England Patriots considered the best NFL team ever after starting off 18-0? Are the Detroit Lions (0-4) even considered a top 15 team because they lost so many close games? Not at all. Because you just need to win.

But it's not only winning, but how good do you look while winning. Part of being an elite team, means you absolutely trounce the teams you should beat and you eek out close wins against other very good teams. Now being elite does not and should not mean that you are perfect. Every Superbowl winner since 1972 has lost an least ONE regular season game. But the less games you lose, and the closer the score is between the two teams at the end of a day in a loss, helps determine how elite you are. There's no shame when you lose by 1 against a great opponent (as long as you don't do it often)

It's these main two criteria that I determine to see who is elite.

And right now, there is no elite NFC team.

Right now I submit that there are only four teams that can even be remotely in the conversation for being elite: Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and the Chicago Bears.

My first criteria I look for is record, and all of the aforementioned teams have one loss.

The Seattle Seahawks are leading their division with a 2-2 record, but being the tallest midget doesn't mean you can play basketball in the NBA. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers only have one loss, but they defeated the Cleveland Browns (only by three) and the Carolina Panthers. They got trounced by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now granted the teams the Bucs have played are at the extreme ends of the spectrum. There's no shame in losing to probably a top three team and they still should defeat the Panthers (who are probably bottom three) and Cleveland. But they weren't even close to being in it against the Steelers and they should have destroyed the Browns to be considered elite. Lastly, we get to the Redskins and Eagles. The Eagles would be on this list if week four hadn't been played because they lost a close one to Green Bay, a potential elite team. But you can't lose against Donovan McNabb. You just can't. And the Redskins lost to the Rams. The Rams might win the NFC West, but St. Louis was 0-2 when Washington played them and only won one game in 2009. Again, to be elite, you not only HAVE to beat the Rams, but blow them out of the water.

Now we get to our four contenders. We can easily cross the Bears off of the list because they only have one sure fire win- and that's against the Cowboys. A bullshit rule prevented the Lions from taking Game One from the Bears, and 18 penalties caused the Packers to barely lose. And they got demolished by the Giants. Again, I consider how you win important. Just barely beating the Packers is acceptable, but not when the Packers shoot themselves in the foot and lose within the last minute of the game by a field goal. I know the good teams have breaks go there way (in all sports) but this has just been kind of ridiculous. Plus the Bears do not look good going forward if Cutler misses more significant time.

Speaking of Green Bay, I don't put them in this elite class. If you're elite, you have to beat you're arch rivals, the Bears, on Monday night. This game should not have been close. Elite teams don't shoot themselves in the foot. Now beating the Eagles with a rejuvenated Michael Vick is a great win, but the Bears loss and Lions win negate that. The Packers only beat the Lions by 2 points. If you want to be considered elite you have to beat the Lions by at least 14 points. The Lions are better and are playing better than recent Matt Millen memory, but they're still a bottom five NFL team. Which means you can't just barely squeak by them.

The Saints are not the same Saints as their great 2009, Superbowl winning counterpart. In fact, I'm not convinced they're a top ten team. They're just skating by on their reputation. Last year the Saints could score via offense or defense. This year they aren't doing either. Right now the Saints are tied for 13th place in total points scored. In fact, the Detroit Lions have scored more points that the Saints right now. They're also just an average defense also ranking 13th in points allowed. And their wins show it. They barely beat a winless San Fran team, they only beat the Vikings by five (and we realize what a crappy quality team the Vikings are now when the Saints played them), they only won by two against a Jimmy Clausen led Panthers team, and they were defeated by their division foes the Atlanta Falcons. All these factors combined make for just an above average New Orleans team.

Lastly, we get to the Atlanta. In my mind, this is the closest team in the NFC to being elite. As much as I just trashed on the Saints, I still believe they're a top three team in the NFC and the Falcons defeated them. They absolutely trounced a shitty Cardinals team (41-7) and they went into overtime against the Steelers and lost by a crazy long Rashard Mendenhall TD run. They do however have one black mark- and that's that they almost lost to San Fransisco. Now great teams find a way to win but if Nate Clement had not pulled a 2006 Marlon McCree, the Falcons would be 2-2.

Now Atlanta is top 10 in the NFL in points allowed on defense and points scored, but I don't know, I just can't trust Matt Ryan (13th in the NFL in passer rating), they're only 19th in pass defense, and 11th in run defense. These numbers are very good, but they don't scream, "ELITE" to me. Call me a hater, call me what you will, but I can't put the Falcons in the same category as the Jets, Ravens, or Steelers yet. On a neutral field, I think those three teams nine out of ten times defeat the Falcons. I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFC, but not an elite team.

I think the only elite team are the Ravens, Steelers, and Jets. The Chiefs and Texans (as well as the Packers and Falcons) have a chance to move into that class. But not right now.

The end.

P.S. if you don't know who Marlin McCree is, he's the San Diego CB that New England's Troy Brown stripped to defeat the Chargers in the 2006 AFC Championship game after McCree had intercepted a Tom Brady pass.If McCree had just laid down instead of trying to make a play, the Chargers would have won that game.