Currently there are only four players ever to be a part of the 40/40 Club (40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in a single season): Jose Conseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano. Soon after Soriano joined the club in 2006, it seemed that the next logical choice to join the club was Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore. Sizemore came the closest he has has ever been in 2008 when he hit 33 home runs and stole 38 bases. Sizemore's career seemed to be on the up and up and it seemed to be that if anyone could do it, Grady could. But injury and ineffectiveness derailed any chance the Indians outfielder had to go 40/40.
While it's extremely rare to be a part of this prestigious group and no one really expects or predicts anyone else to do it, I think Ryan Braun could be the next to do it.
In the first half of the 2011 season, Ryan Braun currently has 16 home runs and stole 19 bases. While he is not on pace to go 40/40 this year (he is on pace to hit 31 home runs and steal 37 bases), Braun's stolen base surge this year under new manager Ron Roenicke makes Braun look like Juan Pierre (2010 Pierre, not 2011 Pierre).
In Braun's past four seasons, the most bases he stole was 20 which was in 2009. Braun is clearly going to surpass his career high this year. And Braun has always been pretty successful and efficient when stealing bases. This year he is stealing bases at a 83% clip and has been successful 79% of the time in his career.
Along with his speed, Braun has always had the power potential to hit home runs. He set the rookie record for slugging percentage in 2007 and hit 37 home runs in his sophomore season. However since his sophomore season Braun's home run totals have been steadily declining (although he will make a huge bounce back this year barring any major setbacks) but I still believe in his raw power potential. Braun is only 27 years old and is now just entering into his prime. While I actually think hitting 40 home runs will be Braun's biggest obstacle, I have faith that he can do it (NOTE: Not that he WILL do it, but that he CAN do it).
If The Hebrew Hammer is allowed to run for the next few years like he has so far this season, then I think Braun can join the 40/40 club within the next few years.
Lastly, for those of you who do not understand the title reference, a bonus for you (see at 1:50)
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EDITORS NOTE: As the comments suggest I did mistakenly overlook Matt Kemp going 40/40 and he will probably do it this year but the main purpose of me writing this article was to showcase Braun's new found speed and Braun overall and using the 40/40 back drop as a McGuffin / I really love that line from Jay-Z and created an excuse to use it.
Showing posts with label ryan braun. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ryan braun. Show all posts
Stupid DME thinks Braun can't run the bases
In the Chase Utley comments section, DME proclaimed that Ryan Braun is a horrible baserunner ranking 9th on his own team last season. He points to some stat called EQBRR on BP, which seems reasonable after checking it over, though i still dont know how it is calculated exactly. The baseball analysts did a preview of Bill James Baseball Abstract for 2010
Before listing the best and worst baserunners by position, James compares Chone "Gone" Figgins (23-for-43 going from first-to-third on a single and 26-for-31 second-to-home on a single) with Prince Fielder (1-for-45 first-to-third on a single) and David Ortiz (2-for-16 second-to-home on a single), Emilio Bonafacio (10-for-10 first-to-home on a double) with Mike Lowell (0-for-10), and Denard Span (moved up a base 31 times on a WP, PB, Balk, SF, or Defensive Indifference) with Geoff Blum (never advanced a base on any of those plays).
| BEST | WORST | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Kurt Suzuki | +15 | C | Yadier Molina | -26 | |
| 1B | Carlos Pena | +9 | 1B | Adrian Gonzalez | -29 | |
| 2B | Chase Utley | +50 | 2B | Robinson Cano | -23 | |
| 3B | Chone Figgins | +35 | 3B | Mike Lowell | -27 | |
| SS | Jason Bartlett | +30 | SS | Yuniesky Betancourt | -28 | |
| LF | Ryan Braun | +35 | LF | Juan Rivera | -40 | |
| CF | Michael Bourn | +55 | CF | Kosuke Fukudome | -11 | |
| RF | Ichiro Suzuki | +32 | RF | Gabe Kapler | -19 |
Most people will tell you that we should have Carl Crawford in left field ahead of Ryan Braun, and people will tell you that Yadier Molina actually runs well for a catcher, or at least for a Molina. We don't base this on reputation. Carl Crawford was 8-for-27 going first-to-third on a single. Ryan Braun was 15-for-41, which is better. Crawford was 4-for-9 scoring from first on a double. Braun was 7-for-9. Crawford moved up 24 bases on Wild Pitches, Passed Balls, Balks, Sacrifice Flies and Defensive Indifference. Braun moved up 26 times. Crawford grounded into 7 double plays in 136 DP situations; Braun grounded into 7 in 172 situations. Braun was thrown out 5 times on the bases. Crawford was thrown out 10. Crawford is a very good baserunner—the second-best baserunner among major league left fielders in 2009, including his base stealing—but Braun was better. And Yadi Molina grounded into 27 frigging double plays, which is a record even for a Molina brother.
As James points out, "the difference between the best baserunner in the majors (Michael Bourn) and the worst (Juan Rivera) was 95 bases, or about 24 runs" [editor's note: equal to about 2 1/2 wins].
