Is Ozzie Guillen A Tortfeasor?

NOTE 1: For a definition of what a tort is, click here. Essentially they are bad things that people do that you sue those people over instead of throwing them in jail. You see those commercials of lawyers in a monotone voice saying like "have you been wronged" and shit like that? Yeah those guys are tort lawyers. And a tortfeasor is someone who commits a tort.
NOTE 2: I am not a lawyer. Do not take this post as the law. I am not giving you advice. This post is simple just an explanation of a case I have read in law school.


Now that I have gotten the legal disclaimers out of the way, I'd like to introduce you to a case that I have recently read. Let me tell you the facts and see if this sounds familiar.

In Avila v Citrus Community College District (2006) [see post above if you'd like to read the entire case] , the Rio Hondo Community College Roadrunner were playing the Citrus Community College Owls pre-season baseball game. A Roadrunner hit a player with a pitch. When Avila, came to bat, as retaliation for the last batter hit, the Owls pitcher hit Avila in the head with the pitch. Avila felt dizzy and in pain but he went to first. He then went to second when the defender realized Avila was in pain. Avila ended up suing a lot of people over this incident (both schools, his manager, the helmet manufacturer, and the school districts). This particular case involves a suit between Avila and the rival school's school district.

Now I'd like to pause for a moment. This situation happens often in baseball, both professional and amateur. Ozzie has openly said if his players keep getting hit, he'll retaliate. Bobby Jenks got fined this year when he admitted he intentionally threw at Ian Kinsler earlier this year as retaliation. A few years ago (I'm sorry I don't remember the particulars but), Ozzie told a newly called up minor leaguer to hit the batter. After this pitcher threw it far behind the batter (but not hitting the batter), Ozzie threw a shit fit at this pitcher and we have never heard of this guy again.

So this decision could potentially have an impact on guys like Ozzie Guillen, or anyone in baseball who makes decisions like this. If we say a batter can collect money damages for things like this, then not only could we see this get eliminated from baseball, but if we do, dudes will have to go through extensive litigation and could lose a lot of money.

However, the court did not rule in favor of the batter. Avila sued the school district claiming they were negligent (I spent more than half a semester in law school going over what constitutes negligence so I'm not going to explain what it is, but feel free to briefly learn it.) The court said getting hit was an implicit part of the game of baseball and "an inherent risk of the sport." As a baseball player, you essentially agree to certain things that happen to you. In football, you agree to get tackled. And if you suffer two concussions or force a guy to become paralyzed, that's tough shit because you've already given your consent for people to do things to you that could potentially cause you serious or life-threatening harm. The same is true for baseball.

Even though getting intentionally hit is illegal and against MLB and probably all amateur baseball rules, it's still an inherent part of the game and you, as a player, have consented that if you get hit, you essentially can not sue for your damages.

The court goes on to say further
Pitcher intentionally throw at batters to disrupt a batter's timing or back him away from home plate, to retaliate after a teammate has been hit, or to punish a batter for having hit a home run. Some of the most respected baseball managers and pitchers have openly discussed the fundamental place throwing at batters has in their sport...

It is one thing to punish a pitcher who hits a batter by ejecting him from the game, or for a league to suspend the pitcher, it is quite another for tort law to chill any pitcher from throwing inside, i.e. close to the batter's body- a permissible and essential part of the sport- for fear over an errant pitch. For better or for worse, being intentionally thrown at is a fundamental part and inherent risk of the sport of baseball. It is not the function of tort law to police such conduct.

This is a pretty interesting statement. If you throw a ball at someone's head normally, you could potentially get sued for millions of dollars. But if you do it with uniforms, it's OK.

Another point DME and I have discussed is: "Is getting intentionally hit really a part of the game?" He says no. He says it's against the rules of baseball and thus no pitcher should ever do it. But this court talks about that. They say it still is a part of the game, even though it is against the rules. However, I bet if you polled every MLB player, they would say that getting hit and getting intentionally hit IS a part of the game. I think everyone in baseball is aware of it and they realize the risks. They know that they could get hit and I bet that they would WANT retaliation of they got hit. Even if baseball players are more pacifistic now, I still bet they realize it is a risk they are taking by playing. I'm sure it's small, but still a risk.

Plus, I think this could create a slippery slope. Take for instance, Carlos Quentin. The guys purposefully crouches inside the plate. Are pitchers not allowed to throw inside to him for fear that if they do hit, he'll sue them the next day? I think implementing tort law would cause pitchers to pitch less inside for fear of a law suit as well. Now you can argue if that really IS such a bad thing for there will be less injuries and harm to human life at only a small expense- a pitcher had to change the way he pitches.

I think you can also argue that if Avila won, that could translate to how other sports are played. The other week, Brady Quinn got picked off (shocking)and went to go try and tackle the player that picked him off. But because he's Brady Quinn and because he's a QB, he is a poor tackler. He ended up tackling a defender in an illegal way and I believe hurt the defender's legs for a bit. What he did was clearly against the rules of the NFL and the NFL punished him. But should we go so far to say that Brady Quinn should get sued (Well I personally hate Brady Quinn so...)? I think all athletes realize these inherent risks that being in the sport.

The biggest effect I think this decision would have had is in hockey. One of the most entertaining reasons people watch hockey is for the fights. Obviously, if you fight someone on the street, you've committed a tort (and probably a crime). But when you do it in hockey, it's not only commonly done, but fans expect it.

My Torts professor joked about this, but we as a society really do put a high societal value on recreation and professional sports. It's becomes ingrained as a fabric of out lives). DME does nothing BUT talk about sports (rather baseball). All four blog authors spend a lot of time (too much) watching and writing about sports. Sports are the reason we download podcasts, buy things, watch TV, go out. We really do value sports heavily and as a result, the law treats sports differently.

Going back to the original case the court talks about the necessity for not siding with Avila; for saying that pitcher's need to pitch inside. Think about if the law really did punish athletes for things that are normally torts everywhere else? This really would change the way pitcher's pitch and batter's hit. These qualitative aspects would screw up the quantitative analysis we love so much. We, society along with the four blog authors, really would be upset if the law intervened too much in sports (Hell. we get made when they hold hearing on steroids). We really do put a high societal value.

If you've learned anything from this post, I hope at least you've learned that judges also believe that a pitcher should be allowed to pitch inside

GOI Football Predictions: Week Eleven

My selections are in bold.
Here are my Picks for this week:

Miami at Carolina (Already picked Miami)
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Seattle at Minnesota
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Atlanta at N.Y. Giants
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Cleveland at Detroit
San Francisco at Green Bay
Arizona at St. Louis
Cincinnati at Oakland
San Diego at Denver
N.Y. Jets at New England
Philadelphia at Chicago
Tennessee at Houston

FJM: ESPN/ Tim Lincecum Edition

Here's excerpts from the ESPN article written about Tim Lincecum winning the NL Cy Young this year. You can read the full article here, but if you're smart enough to be on this blog, I wouldn't recommend it.

ESPN seem like that kid in your high school class who's a nice kid but just a little bit slow getting things. Kind of like Forrest Gump. He's trying so hard to learn the material, but you can't help but laugh at him anyway.

I'm going to hell.

Anyway, here's some of ESPN's hard hitting analysis and it's attempts to bring sabermetrics and advanced statistics into the mainstream

Lincecum, nicknamed "The Freak" for his giant stride, led the NL with 261 strikeouts and tied for the league lead with four complete games and two shutouts.

Well, at least they're getting off on the right foot. You know how us sabermetricians love to use complete games and shut outs as the basis for our Cy Young votes. That's why I've been advocating all year for Mark Buerhle to win the AL Cy Young.

The wiry right-hander attracts plenty of attention on the mound with his shoulder-length brown hair and twisting delivery. But it was his 15 victories -- the fewest for a Cy Young starter over a non-shortened season -- that were really noticeable for the award winner.

Yes, the fact that Lincecum plays a team with an offense worse than the Washington Nationals and on par with the Kansas City Royals. It wasn't the fact that this is Lincecum's second Cy Young in less than three years of being in MLB or the fact that he's fucking awesome that was the noticeable thing. Nope, it was 15 wins.

The 2009 honors for Lincecum and Kansas City Royals ace Zack Greinke reflect a recent shift in how pitchers are evaluated. The focus has changed to more developed statistics, including some that even take into account team defense.

What a novel concept! We use data that proves causal factors in determining how good a player as the basis for Cy Young awards and not wins!? These smart baseball writers are too confusing for my dumb little mind. My head can't comprehend this concept that once a pitch leaves the picthers hand, he really has no control whether that ball goes as a pop up or home run! How DARE ESPN take into team defense when evaluating a pitcher!

Also, I think Chris Rongey would disagree with you ESPN.

Greinke equaled the previous low of 16 wins for a non-shortened season when he won the AL award on Tuesday. Afterward, he talked all about FIP, a mathematician's dream that stands for Fielding Independent Pitching.

Oh, you mean a Kansas City Royals pitcher ALSO got a Cy Young. Well, too bad both guys are just shitty batters that they couldn't generate enough runs to help themselves win.

Also, when did FIP equal a mathematicians dream? That's like saying it's Steve Phillips dream to spend all of is free time going after ugly girls. Sure it SOUNDS like they go together, but do they really?

Plus, I thought FIP also was for loser bloggers who sit in their mother's basement? Why couldn't ESPN just say FIP = one of the best ways to measure how good a player is considering, um, it is?

Lincecum has his own favorite indicator.

"To say which one I look to the most, I would just say WHIP," he said, referring to walks plus hits allowed per inning, "just because you just limit the amount of baserunners that can hurt you."

Too bad Lincecum isn't as smart as Zach Greinke. Lincy's arm may be developed by NASA, but his head sure isn't.

...
Two voters, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law of ESPN.com, did not include Carpenter on their ballots. Carroll had Wainwright in the top spot, Lincecum second and Arizona's Dan Haren third. Law voted for Lincecum, Atlanta's Javier Vazquez and Wainwright in third. Those were the only votes for Haren and Vazquez.

You mean two really smart analysts who are aware of the causal reasons why a pitcher is good actually used logic and reasoning as the basis for voting and not their "eye" or anything like that! What silly people are getting Cy Young votes these days!

The Time is now for Devin Aromashodu!

Devin Aromashodu is a wide receiver for the Chicago Bears. Not too many people know who he is. If you’re a loyal reader of GOI you should know who he is. He is a receiver that has bounced around and is already on his 3rd team at only 25 years old. The Bears signed him and he made a big impression on the Bears and Jay Cutler in Training camp. He also made a big impression on me and my friend Vance when we saw him at training camp. Even though my impression of him doesn't count. It is only Ron Turner's, Lovie Smith, and Jay Cutler's impression that counts.

He started the season injured and was inactive for the first 6 games of the season. Last week was the first game of the season where he had a pass thrown his way and he caught it for 10 yards on the final drive in the 4th quarter before Cutler threw the interception in the end zone. Cutler likes him because he is tall at 6-2, fast, and has great hands. The Bears are starting to use Aromashodu so I expect great things.

This is a video of him when he was briefly with the Colts:


This is a video of a great catch he made in the pre-season:

Lets get ready for him making big plays on Sunday for the Bears!

Lincecum's NL Cy Young Implications

Congratulations to Tim Lincecum, who just won his second (consecutive) Cy Young Award. Despite not getting the most first place votes (Wainwright did, but finished third), Lincecum undoubtedly deserved the baseball's highest pitching honor. His 261 Ks were the most in the NL. His 10.42 K/9 was the best amongst all pitchers in baseball who throw 150+ innings. Lincecum was top 5 in ERA, WHIP and FIP. Truth be told, his 2.34 FIP was second only to Greinke's 2.33 mark. Lincecum's 2009, like Greinke's 2009, was nothing short of dominant. It was better in every aspect to his outstanding 2008 campaign in every way except W's (which is a useless metric anyway). There is no doubt in my mind that Lincecum unanimously deserved the award over Carpenter, who had over 100 less Ks in 30 less innings, or Wainwright, who had a great season, but was not even top 10 in FIP or top 5 in ERA). In fact, if it was not for the Wins disparity, Lincecum would have probably gotten all of Carpenter and Wainwright's second place votes too, just for good measure.

That's two Cy Youngs in 2.5+ years of service. Lincecum is a Super Two this year. His arbitration potential in unheard of. Ryan Howard set the first year arb. award record in 2008, at $10 million. That was with only a single MVP to his name. Lincecum -- who has 676 Ks in less than 600 IP and a career WHIP of 1.15 -- stands to make more money than Free Agent SP John Lackey. He even has the potential to make more money than Matt Holliday, depending on the kind of long term deal Holliday is seeking.

Fangraphs valued Lincecum's +8.2 WAR 2009 season at $37.0 million. Only three players (Greinke (+9.4 WAR), Zobrist (+8.6 WAR) and Pujols (+8.4 WAR)) were more valuable last season. Bill James is predicting that Lincecum will almost exactly repeat his 2008 numbers (+7.5 WAR) in 2010. That would make Lincecum's performance worth between $30 and $35 million.

The good news for that Giants is that Lincecum is open to a long term deal. The bad news is how much Lincecum will probably cost. The Giants were dead last in wOBA/OPS last year and are in dire need of a quality hitter. According to MLBTR, the Giants' payroll stands to be around $80 million next season. They opened the 2009 season with an $82.6 million payroll, so the team seems a bit cash strapped at the moment. The Giants, however, will not have Lincecum forever and he's only going to get more expensive (just imagine the second year arbitration award potential if Lincecum were to pull off the three peat). SF has a great, young pitching staff and the window for winning will shrink as more core players (Sanchez, Sandoval, etc) get into the arbitration mix.

It's pure speculation on my part, but if the Giants have the money lying around, they should look into trading Jonathan Sanchez over to the Brewers for Prince Fielder. Sanchez is the kind of cheap, quality talent the Brewers are desperately seeking and Fielder is...well, Fielder. Can't hurt to add a .400+ wOBA bat to a .305 wOBA team. Sanchez might be too little to offer for Fielder, but maybe Matt Cain (also cost controlled)? Perhaps take a gamble and trade for Mat Gamel?

Who You Got: Panthers or Dolphins?

Ok, heads is home team, tails is away. And it's...

Carolina

Scooter the baseball has nothing on a talking floating glove

Is Brian Westbrook's Career Over?


Westbrook has suffered two concussions this season, and within about a few weeks of each other. Westbrook is 30 years old. As LT has shown us this year, Westbrook is not only on the decline to not produce as well anyway, but the dude is risking his life if he steps onto the football field again. Westbrook was cleared to play after he suffered one concussion, and then suffered another. It doesn't take a med student to realize that Westbrook has probably done a shit ton of damage to his body already over the course of playing football, nevertheless compounding two concussion on top of that, Westbrook should, and probably is, considering retirement.

So if he does retire, is he a hall of famer? Dude has always been good when he played, but when you combine that he played on a team that always seemed to pass 60% of the time and Westbrook's career was riddled with injuries, does he deserve to go into Canton? Well, let's take a look at his numbers.

In 7.5 seasons (all with the Eagles), Westbrook is a two time pro bowler and started once. He has 37 career TDs and a 4.6 career YPC. But Westbrook was always a part of the passing game as well with 29 receiving TDs and a 9.0 YPR.

Unfortunately, Westbrook has never really been THAT good at anything. He ranks 88th in rushing/receiving TDs, 119th in rushing TDs, 57th in YPC, 79th in YPG, 160th in receptions, and 81st in total yards from scrimmage. He's always been one of the best RBs when he's played, but never completing 16 games in a season will tend to show up in your career numbers. The fact that he keeps getting drafted in the first round every year in fantasy football league shows you just how good of a talent he is and how much people believe in him and believe that he can do well over a 16 game season. But unfortunately, that's not a very good metric to get into Canton.

So is Westbrook a HOFer? I think he barely gets into the Hall of Very Good, but I wish him all of the best of luck in his future.

Analyzing the 2008 First Round RB Class

The NFL is full of some young great RBs. In fact, most of the RBs that are starting now or is a prominent back up in this current 2 RB league. in the NFL were drafted in 2008. The list includes: Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice, Tim Hightower, and Justin Forsett. An overall pretty impressive list, no?

2008 is looking like a pretty damn good year to draft a RB and I wish I had the time to analyze all these players, but the first round is a pretty good place to start. Now obviously the maximum amount of games these guys have had is only 25, so the sample size is not the greatest, but it's pretty interesting which team had the foresight to draft well.

#4 Overall: Run DMC Darren McFadden
Most of Run DMC's young career has been riddled by injury starting in only 5 games and playing in only 18. In his rookie year, he had a fine 4.4 YPC but only averaging about 8.5 carries per game. This year, however, he is averaging a measly 3.1 YPC with a little over 10 carries per game. He averages .277 TDs per game

In his freshman year, he had a negative DYAR and DVOA (which is really bad and he was really inefficient). He's not much better this year, in fact (obviously as the "normal" stats show) he's regressed.

However, I can't say that McFadden is totally to blame, the Oakland offensive line has been awful in run blocking ranking 26th last year and 20th this year.

#13 Overall: Jonathan Stewart
Unfortunately for Stewart he plays with last year should-have-been MVP DeAngelo Williams and who is having another monster year this year. So while Stewart has never started, he has played in all 25 games for the Panthers. While he only averages a career 11.8 carries per game, he does great things with those carries. Last year he averaged 4.5 YPC and this year he's raised that this year to 4.8. He is also a TD machine getting 10 last year and 6 this year. Stewart averages .64 TD's per game.

Clearly, Stewart had been very efficient ranking 6th of all RBs last year in DYAR and 12th in DVOA. This year, he ranks 17th in both.

However, when two RBs on a team do well, the most likely answer for this is the offensive line and not the RB itself. Last year, Carolina had the 8th best run blocking line and this year they rank 13th. So while Stewart is very good and durable, I'm sure a lot of his success is due the line and maybe not him.

#22 Overall: Felix Jones
After Dallas let go of Julius Jones, they decided to draft another Jones, Run DMC's back up in college. In Jones' first few games, he looked amazing. But injuries and carries has hindered him since. He's only started in 13 games so far with a career 74 attempts, 4 TDs, and a whopping 7.7 YPC. However, this YPC is probably due more to the limited carries he's had and will probably diminish with more and consistent workload. However, even for this analysis, I'd say it's just too small of a sample size to rally really determine how good Jones can be/ is. But it doesn't look promising to draft a first rounder who is constantly getting injured.

#23 Overall: Rashard Mendenhall
Again, we have a sample size problem because Mendenhall was injured all of his rookie, but he looks good this year. He has successfully stolen the job away from Willie Parker and is now a top back in this league. This year, with a consistent workload, he's averaging 5.4 YPC and 4 rushing TDs. He's averaging .31 TD's per game.

This year Mendenhall ranks 13th in DYAR and 14th in DVOA. The Steelers O-line is 11th in the league in blocking. But I give a but more credit to Mendenhall here than to Stewart because Willie Parker didn't do shit with the same O-line, whereas Stewart is playing with another back who is having success.

#24 Overall: Chris Johnson
This year, Johnson is first among all RBs in fantasy football, first in rushing yards, 4th in rushing TDs, 2nd in DVOA, 4th in DYAR, and is on his way to a second pro bowl in only two years. Yeah, mo fo is good. He had a 4.9 YPC last year and he raised that to 6.4 this year. He has 17 career rushing TDs and 2 career receiving TDs. He averages .79 TDs per game.

What really bolsters the case for Johnson's talent is that the Tennessee run blocking have been below average ranking 15th last year and 26th this year. Again, mo fo is just amazing.

Clearly draft position has meant nothing to how guys have performed because I would rank:
1) Chris Johnson
2) Jonathan Stewart
3) Rashard Mendenhall
4) Felix Jones
5) RUN DMC

Clearly you make easy arguments that guys like Forte, Kevin Smith, Slaton, Hightower, and Rice should be included in this discussion of who's the best RB to come out of this draft class. In fact, it also goes to show you that while as good as these five guys have been, you shouldn't draft a RB in the first round because you can always find just as good, if not better talent, in later rounds. I think how people view the 1996 draft for wide outs, people will view the 2008 draft for RBs.

Non-GOI Carlos Pena Analysis

DRays Bay has an absolutely fantastic analysis of Carlos Pena up on their site.

I highly recommend a read.

The Bill Belichick Call vs. The Jack Del Rio Call

Even you even remotely have an inkling for sports, you all know of the 4th and 2 call Belichick made vs. the Colts this past weekend. And being the loyal GOI blog followers you are, you should also be aware of the Jack Del Rio call telling MJD to kneel at the 1 with about a minute left so they can waste time and kick a field goal to win the game. To me, these two calls seem just as risky, yet no one really is criticizing Del Rio, but essentially everyone is criticizing Belichick. You know why-only because Belichick's gamble failed and Del Rio's suceeded.

Now I shouldn't be this hyperbolic, the Del Rio call was not nearly as big of a gamble as Belichick's was. The few dumb critics of Del Rio's call (like I think Skip Bayless is one of them), say that, "What if the field goel gets blocked, or they miss, or something goes wrong. At least MJD scoring the TD would have guaranteed the team to be up" And what if martians come down from the sky and butt fuck the kicker in the middle of his kick. Or what if an earthquake happenes right before MJD scores that TD and he falls into the center of the earth. What if. The reason Del Rio's call was the correct one (besides the fact that it succeeded and he won the game), was because he was minimizing his risks. If MJD had scored, then the Jets would have had a minute to march down the field and score- or even worse, a kick return for a TD. And the risk of his kicker missing like a 20 yard FG is slim to none.

Belichick also made the right call because he was minimizing his risks as well. The only way the Pats would have guaranteed themselves a win is by holding on to the ball and keeping the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands. How do you do that- you keep your drive alive and the Pats offense on the field. So its an obvious risk because if you fail to convert, you end up doing the thing you tried to avoid. But the Pats have a great offense and a shitty D.

When you're making the call, you don't know what the result will be. A bad call can wind up in a good result and a good call can wind up with a bad result. But you make calls to minimize your risks to win the game. And as far as I'm concerned, both coaches made the right call.

NOTE: Hey football "experts" on TV, stop fucking telling me how the Pats defense feels. "Oh, Belichick doesn't have confidence in his defense." What are you basing this off of? Even if Belichick doesn't have confidence in his D (and maybe he shouldn't because Peyton was raping them in the 4th quarter), that doesn't mean anythng. Unless you report to me info from players actually in the Pats locker room, stop fucking making up stuff. In fact, Balichick seems to have an amazing abaility to control his players minds and actually believe in everything he tells them. So if Bill Belichick tells his D he has confidence in them, his D will probably believe him.

Zack Grienke Wins AL Cy Young

Again, shocking.

1) I said in the very beginning of the year that the AL Cy Young would come from the AL Central and it would probably would be Zach Greinke (although, yes, I wasn't going oout on all that big of a limb at the time)
2) Here's why Greinke deserved to win it. The lead the AL in:

-ERA
-FIP (led all baseball)
-WHIP
-HR/9
-WAR
-Dollars (fangraph value stat)

Greinke threw the most effective fastball in the AL, the second most effective slider, thrown in with a fairly effective curveball and a decent change-up.

Greinke was second in the AL in strikeouts, 3rd in K/9, 2nd in K/BB with a slightly disadvantageous BABIP (.313).

Yes, Greinke ONLY got 16 wins, but let's be honest 1) wins are a worthless stat and 2) If the Royals weren't just a shade above being Washington Nationals bad, then he would have gotten like 25 wins.

I'm glad baseball writers are seemingly getting these big awards more and more right.

Dick Jauron Gets Fired

Shocking.

The guy was horrible in Chicago and a horrible coach throughout the year, what made the Bills think that he would do well in Buffalo?

Zack Greinke knows sabermetrics


We all know that athletes are merely cold, metal machines with no heart of souls. Yet one of them has learned how to read and has learned the wonderous world of sabermetrics. After winning the AL Cy Young with a nearly unanimous 22-25 first place votes, Greinke admitted that he used advanced statistics to help him achieve the glorious Cy Young award.
“David DeJesus had our best zone rating,” Bannister said, referring to the Royals’ left fielder. “So a lot of times, Zack would pitch for a fly ball at our park instead of a ground ball, just because the zone rating was better in our outfield and it was a big park.”
Zone factor? UZR? Range Factor? Really, he actually took into account the defensive abilities of his fielders when pitching. This is unheard of. Baseball is a game of hunches, with horrible umpiring, and functionally retarded commissioners. Doesnt Greinke know that these numbers are for losers who live in their mother's basement. It's far too nerdy for baseball players
“That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible,” emphasize the factors for which pitchers are essentially responsible: walks, strikeouts, home runs and hit batters.
FIP? Matthew Berry doesnt even know what FIP is and he runs the fantasy department at ESPN. Despite only getting 16 wins this year, cause he plays for the Royals, Greinke put up one of the best single season performances. He may be no Jason Marquis, but a 2.33 FIP in the american league is definitely worth of praise.

Defending The Bill Bellichick Call-Part 2

My colleague “Sexy Rexy” defended Bill Bellichick for the call he made on Sunday. I keep hearing about it and I also agree with “Sexy Rexy” thatit was the right call so I decided to write about it.

On Sunday Bill Bellichick made one of the most controversial football calls in a long time. The Patriots were up 34-28 with a little over two minutes left in the game. The Patriots were on their own 30 yard line and Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and short. They didn’t complete and were two yards short. They turned it over and Peyton Manning with only 30 yards to go easily maneuvered a scoring driver to win the game for the Colts 35-34. Everyone has been disagreeing with this call and saying it was a terrible move. I decided to share my view point on the subject because I agree with Bill Bellichick and make a few points I haven’t heard anyone make because everyone is disagreeing with the call.

First of all, if Tom Brady (a future hall of famer) the quarterback of one of the best offenses currently in the game were successful and got two yards, no one would be talking about this call and saying it was such a bad move. Only because the Patriots offense didn’t get two yards is everyone, including his former players ripping on the move. The New England Patriots are second in the league this season with 3,751 Total Yards. They are averaging 416.8 yards per game. That is second to the New Orleans Saints who have 3,835 total yards and are averaging 426.1 yards per game. The third best offensive teams in the league are The Indianapolis Colts with 3610 total yards averaging 401.1 per game. Thus, two of the top three offensives were playing each other.

The New England Patriots have a young defense. They do have the 8th best defense in the game for allowing the least amount of total yards, but are not what they used to be. They have had a lot of turnover in personnel on the defense and their young defensive players are still learning.

The Indianapolis Colts have the third best offense in the game. The Patriots have the second best offense. So Bill Bellichick wanted to play to the strength of his team, not their weakness!
The Patriots had the lead most of the game until the 4th quarter. The Patriots defense was getting tired and having trouble to continue to contain the explosive Colts offense. Throughout the first three quarters of the game the Colts only scored 14 points. Then in the 4th quarter before the two minute warning the Colts scored 14 points by two touch downs. First they scored 79 yards in 2:04. Then they scored 79 yards in 1:49. So yes Bill Bellichick did have reason to be worried. His defense was tired and had trouble stopping Manning twice already in the 4th quarter. Oh, yeah, both drives that were each for 79 yards were 2:04 and 1:49. Thus Manning has shown in this game against his defense that he could score easily within the time left in the game.

Also, Manning has engineered a few comebacks in the 4th quarters this season to win within 2 minutes or close to that time. This isn’t just any Offense or any quarterback the Patriots were trying to stop. This was Peyton Manning, one of the best in the game, and arguably the best at coming from behind to win. So please will everyone in the media stop saying it was a bad move. I understand it wasn’t typical, and usually wouldn’t be a smart move, but under these factors, it was!

Maurice Jones-Drew kneel down at 1 Yard Line

On Sunday there was a controversial call by Bill Bellichick in the New England game. Because of that call which I agree with, I feel no one is talking about what Jack Del Rio had Maurice Jones-Drew in the Jacksonville Jaguars game on Sunday. Maurice Jones-Drew deliberately knelt down on the one yard line instead of easily scoring a touchdown. He stopped on the 1-yard line to waste time off the clock. Then the Jaguars kicked a field goal to win by two points. Now this move I don’t understand. I would have thought it would be better to score more points which you easily had a chance to do. Instead you barley win and what if the kicker misses the field goal for some reason? Do you waste that much more time off the clock than scoring a touchdown?

I also read that Maurice Jones-Drew apologized to his fantasy owners. He was sorry for not scoring the touchdown and the extra points that come with it. He said “Sorry to my fantasy owners, they told me to get as close as I can and take a knee." I have also never heard of a player apologizing for something fantasy related. Would you want a Bear player telling the public that he thinks about fantasy football and the people that have him in their leagues?

I don’t know football like I do baseball so maybe one of our other contributors can explain this to me? Was it a good move to take the knee?

Noah just learning meaning of "Circus Trip"

The Chicago Bulls are starting their annual “Circus trip” tonight. Every year it comes toward the beginning of the season. The other day Joakim Noah learned why it is called the “Circus trip”. I guess third year players who have emerged as one of your team’s best player doesn’t know everything yet. Last night I saw the video on television about how he learned about it. It was pretty funny to see how serious he was when he said why he thought it was called the “Circus trip”. I looked online, but couldn’t find the video. So keep an eye out for it on T.V. and Comcast Sports net. You can read about it in the Daily Herald.

Noah said "I don't understand what's so circus about the trip. Everybody always says it's like a circus trip, but it's just a good team bonding (experience). We spend a lot of time together on the road." I don’t think that needs explanation! He has emerged as a good rebounder and leads the NBA in rebounding after 9 games.

Grossman's Dads Chimes in on the Bears

Rex Grossman's dad, Dan Grossman talked about the Chicago Bears. He makes some good points that here Jay Cutler is struggling now because of the culture of the team and the way he is used. It was a good article.

Bengals Big on Giving Second Chances

The Cincinnati Bengals are big on giving second chances to players. They gave a second chance to Cedric Benson and that has turned out to be a great move for them. After the Bears released Benson and gave up on him anyone could have signed him. No one rushed to sign the former 1st round pick. Now Benson is the 6th best rusher in the game so far this season. He has run for 859 yards and has scored 6 touchdowns. He is a big part of why the Bengals are 7-2 along with Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco.

Now the Bengals are giving a second chance to Larry Johnson. Larry Johnson was released by Kansas City Chiefs after not performing and being a distraction off the field. Johnson is going to be the 4th string Running back, but I think he will get a chance sometime this season to show the league he still has some game left in him, or if he is washed up at 30 years old. I think Johnson’s best days are way behind him and he won’t be much of a factor, but we will see.

The Allen Iverson Experiment in Memphis comes to an End


I have been tracking the Allen Iverson saga since he signed with the Memphis Grizzlies in September. Three games into their season Iverson let the team to take a “personal leave” and he never returned. They never said what the “personal matter" was, but speculation was that he didn’t like his role with the team so he was thinking about retiring. Now the Memphis Grizzlies decided to waive him and move on.

The Memphis Grizzlies signed him because they were hoping he would help with their attendance and give their fans something to be excited about. He could never accept his role as a bench player which it looks like they never really discussed with him. Iverson could be a good scoring guard for many teams, but he would need to understand his role at this stage of his career. The Bulls need scoring and he would fill that need, but it wouldn’t be worth it. The Nicks are the only team to express interest in him so far.

GOI Fantasy Basketball League

Game Of Inches has a Fantasy Basketball league so I decided I will do updates on it throughout the season that way we do with our fantasy football league. Only two of our writers are in the league; "The 'Bright' One" and myself “Cubsfan4evr". I know we also have some readers in the league. Today I will just post how "The 'Bright' One" and "Cubsfan4evr" are doing, but if you read the blog regularly let me know by posting a comment or contacting me directly and I will track your status next time.

1st Place) Cubsfan4evr- 86 Points
5th Place) The 'Bright' One- 54.5

We all know that “The 'Bright' One” knows basketball and Fantasy sports considering the great job he did with his fantasy baseball team considering the injuries several of his key players had. Thus, we will see his team improve over the season.

Greg Olson Sighting

On Sunday afternoon Greg Olson was at Joe’s bar in Chicago attending a Keith Urban concert. This was a small concert where you had to win tickets through Verizon Wireless and America’s country station US 99.5. Last Tuesday I went to a Verizon Wireless store in Lake Zurich with my girlfriend and she won tickets to this concert. I was surprised when she told me that Greg Olson was there. I didn’t have him pegged for a country music fan. I doubt he had to wait hours at Verizon Wireless stores waiting for his name to be drawn though……………………

GOI Football Prediction Results: Week Ten

Pigskin Pick 'Em

1) Cubsfan4evr
Overall: 95 out of 143- 66%
Last Week: 7 out of 15- 47%

2) Sexy Rexy
Overall: 91 out of 143-64%
Last Week: 8 out of 15- 53%

3) The 'Bright'
OneOverall: 91 out of 143-64%
Last Week: 8 out of 15-53%

We still have a tie between “Sexy Rexy” and “The 'Bright' One”

Fantasy Football League
1) The 'Bright' One (6-4)-956 pts
2) Cubsfan4evr (5-5)-991 pts
3) Sexy Rexy (5-5)-942 pts
4) DME (4-6)-831 pts

“The 'Bright' One” jumped over “Cubsfan4evr” and “Sexy Rexy” this week.

Tom Brady Is A Fan Of Our Blog!

Listen about 6:18 into this press game conference

Tom Brady Postgame Presser (Audio Only)

Football Outsiders Yells At Me

Apparently they don't enjoy me posting the beginning of the posts I write and then linking the substance of my post to this blog. Fuckers.

Listen. I appreciate that you're posting stuff on our boards and want to mention your site, but our boards are not your place to advertise/shill your site. Please stop that.


Update: They sent me this response

I don't mind you advertising your site to a certain extent, but please try and contribute in ways that don't strictly involve advertising your site. If you can find a healthy balance, then it won't be a problem

Elvis Andrews got shafted

Generally speaking, RP's are less valuable than position players and SPs. A relief pitcher logs significantly fewer innings than a hitter does at bats or fielder or starter does innings and even if they put up Joe Nathan-like numbers over 75 IPs, that's just 5.1% of a team's total innings played (assuming that no games go into extras).

Enter the Elvis Andrus-Andrew Bailey-Gordon Beckham debate.

Bailey had a fantastic 2009. He posted a 2.56 FIP and 91 Ks (3.79 K/BB) over 83.1 IPs. He was one of baseball's five most valuable relievers last year. But, because of his limited innings load, he was only worth +2.4 WAR. Gordon Beckham was almost as valuable, at +2.0 WAR, but his defensive struggles learning to play third reduced his value by quarter of a win.

Then there is Elvis Andrus. Andrus was not just a good shortstop last year. He was essentially tied for the honor of best defensive SS in the AL (Cesar Izturis was 1/10 of a win better at defense). Playing fantastic defense at short and slightly below average offense (-5.0 runs) over 1238 innings/541 PAs will make you a +3.0 win player. Defense is always undervalued and Elvis Andrus has a lot of it.

Baseball writers are always getting it wrong, so Andrus' failure to win ROY should come at no surprise. However, if I voted before today (the first time I ever looked at Andrus' specific fielding numbers), I too would have gotten it wrong and voted for Bailey. It just goes to show you just how underrated Andrus' defense truly was. Even amongst us baseball "stat guys."

The Future of Mad Men?

NOTE: This post contains spoilers from Season 3 of Mad Men so if you're like DME and have not seem Season 3, stop reading. But with Mad Men recently ending, I'm not going to wait for all blog authors to finsih watching Mad Men before discussing it with out loyal readers.

One to start off, Betty Draper was awful on SNL a few nights ago. It's a shame because January Jones is so fucking hot, but it makes me wonder how she can get through a 40 minute script if she can't get through a seven minute sketch...

Anyway, the future of Mad Men. Season One of the show was amazing. It was amazing because 1) The dichotomy and depth of Donald Draper 2) How these characters interect with each other and the times and 3) Fan-fucking-tastic writing. But after watching Season Three, I'm not quite sure about how the greatness of one and two will continue.

First, the character of Don Draper. Part of what made Don Draper such a fabuluous character is because of this double life he led. He was a crazy womanizer and would cheat constantly on his wife, yet come home and try to be the loving family man. But he never quite mastered his family man life (see him not coming home after running out to get his kids birthday cake in Season One). But now that Betty has left him (and hopefully for good because this on again off again relationship would just get annoying), who cares if he womanizes? You watched how he interacted before with girls like Racheal Menken and Bobby Barrett and you were disgusted yet intregued with this character. You couldn't stop watching because you were compelled by this double life this man was leading. And the mystery of him being Walt Whitman also enetred into this dichotomy. But after Season Three, none of that seems to matter. After Season One, the Speilberg-esque mystery of Walt Whitman didn't matter anymore. The episode in which he told Betty eveything was fantasitc because she was the one person who he was keeping this secret from. But where can the show go from there? There's no mystery, no suspense, no nothing anymore. And now that Betty is gone, there's no mystery or suspense or depth to Don Draper anymore. All the characterics that made you hooked to the character of Don Draper through Seasons 1-3 won't be there in the future.

In fact, from my perspective, I've already started to not care what Don does. I should be pissed that he was sleeping with Sally's teacher, but I just didn't care. The fact that Don had to sign a contract should have been a huge deal. But the second that happened, I was just like "eh:. The show spent the first half of its season being shitty to set up the amazingness of the second half. But all it really did was make me (and I feel others as well) become less interested in the character. And the ENTIRE subplot of Conrad Hilton did nothing. I feel like it's only purpose was to legitimately set up a reason to force Don to sign a contract, and considering how much time was spent with the Hilton account and how little signing the contract feels, all the time the show wasted with the Hilton account seems like wasted, boring time.

Next, the other charcters. It was nice at the very end that all the main charcters from Seasons 1 and 2 will now be the focal point of at least Season 4. The fact that Pete and Peggy share a desk will hopefully bring up some of the tension that we loved in the first two seasons. How Roger interacts with people, and especially Joanie, will now be more prominent- which is a very good thing. But I don't kow where they can go. Things seem to be resolved between all these charcaters. Pete's finally getting his, something that made for nice conflict in Seasons 1 and 2, Roger isn't cheating anymore, and the gang of Pete and Paul and Kenneth aren't going to be there anymore. Now obviously, the change of the 60's is coming so my interest is piqued for what's to come (especiially considering the last time we saw Sal he was at a homosexual park), but I'm not looking forward to how these characters interact with each other.

Lastly, I don't like how the show doesn't develop its sideplots. It never developed the drama between Kenneth and Pete, the one between Peggy and her family, the one Peggy and her lovers (Duck and random dude), really Peggy in general wasn't developed in Season 3, and everything with the Head of TV dude seems dumb. I hope they develop the relationship between Joan and her husband and he'll probably die in Vietnam, but after he raped her, what happened next? Nothing really. Mad Men, especially recently, introduced these really interesting subplots and then does nothing with them (i.e. all of Entourage last season.) So why should I be interested in anything the shows tells me to do anymore? I just think Mad Men isn't doing as good of a job as it did in its first two seasons.

Now I'm still going to watch Season Four of Mad Men, but I'm not looking forwards to it as much as a was looking forward to Seasons Two and Three.

Defending The Bill Bellichick Call

For all those who saw the Patriots/Colts game tonight (what else would you be doing? Homework? Hanging out with loved ones? Why?), The Pats were up 34-28 with a little under two minutes left to go. The Pats were on there own 30 and Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and short. They don't convert and surprise surprise, Peyton Manning, with only 30 yards and a minute left to go, scores a TD and the Colts win the game 35-34. Now I can imagine that people all over this blogosphere and on ESPN will be criticizing Belichick for this awful decision. Now if I was the coach and I'm sure everyone else would have punted it on fourth down, but I'm going to sort of defend Belichick.

It has actually been statistically proven actually to never punt on 4th down, and some high school coach never punts and his team is amazing and wins State like every year. The reason behind this is that the extra yards a team has to go after a punt (assuming not an awesome run back which is always plausible) is not worth the risk of not keeping your drive alive. So if mathematicians from Universities tell you not to punt, why punt?

The Pats have an amazing offense and they almost converted that 4th down. And if they converted, they were guaranteed to win the game. And just because the Pats punted the ball doesn't mean they WOULD have won. The punt return could have been amazing/ brought back for a TD. And even if a fair catch was called, who's the say that Peyton Manning still wouldn't have scored a TD like he's done so many times before? Plus, Belichick probably didn't trust his defense (and I don't blame him). If the Pats had punted and still lost the game, people wouldn't criticize him. So why criticise him for going for it? It's obviously a huge risk and one that ended up backfiring, but I don't think the decision itself was as bad as people said. And if Faulk had held onto the ball, then that decision would have made amazing for the Pats.

Again, I would have punted it and I'm sure if Belichick knew he wouldn't convert the 4th down, he would have done so as well. But I'm gonna say it was as bad of a decision as people make it out to be.

Matt Kemp Power

"Matt Kemp Power" is a trademark phrase of the David "MVP" Eckstein Corporation, LLC. It refers to Matt Kemp's career ISO (.180-ish) and the ability of a hitter with a comparable ISO to reasonably post a 20 HR/60 XBH season over 650 PAs. Matt Kemp power refers to guys with ISO's ranging between .170 and .185. Hitters with such power can be expected to post 20 HR/60 XBH seasons. They are not "sluggers", but valuable hitters nonetheless, especially when paired with "Matt Kemp Speed." Guys with less then Matt Kemp power are, at best, guys with league average power and not sexy (see Dustin Pedroia). In short, Matt Kemp power is sexy gap power with the ability to go yard.

Now, when you see or hear us refer to a guy as having "Matt Kemp power" (ie, Jayson Nix in 2009), you will be in the know, and knowledge is power.

Jake Fox: Trade Chip or Cheap 1B of the Future?

Jake Fox had a successful "debut" in 2009 (Fox had previously accumulated 15 MLB PA's with the Cubs in 2007). Though he certainly faded down the stretch, Fox none the less put up an above average .779 OPS with a quality .208 ISO in 241 PA's with the Cubs in 2009. Between AAA and the majors last season, Fox jacked a ridiculous 28 HRs in under 450 PAs. His .433 ISO was a full 79 points ahead of the second highest ISO in the Pacific League amongst hitters with 150+ PAs. In short, Fox had his "breakout season." However, like most Cubs prospects, Jake Fox is old; he turns 28 next year. Furthermore, his lack of defense makes him a difficult guy to play on the diamond. 1B and 3B are blocked by A-Ram and D-Lee, while the corners in the outfielder are manned by Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano. If Milton Bradley isn't traded (which he shouldn't be because he was bit by a lot of bad luck last season and he is poor enough a player on or off the field to be worth the $15M salary dump it would require to move him), that leaves no room for Fox besides the bench. Thus the question beckons: is Jake a trade chip at the "peak" of his value or does he have a valuable role in the future of the team?

Unlike the "breakout" performance of Micah Hoffpauir, who overperformed in 2008, Jake Fox underperformed in 2009. Despite a lackluster walk rate (6.1% in 2009, 9.1% MLB average) and eyebrow raising .311 OBP, there are plenty of reasons to trust in Jake Fox. The .285 BABIP and .319 xBABIP/.302 MLB avg BABIP disparity shows that Jake Fox, who posted a .332 wOBA in 2009, has some room to improve in 2010. As someone who posts league average strikeout rates, has improving walk rates in the minors, and has posted an ISO above .250 each season in the minors since being promoted to AAA in 2007, Bill James is profiling Jake Fox as a .284/.339/.546 (.885 OPS) hitter next season. The average MLB first baseman, by contrast, hit .277/.362/.483 (.845 OPS) in 2009.

With Derek Lee, who is in the final year of his contract, turning 35 and getting paid $13M next season, Jake Fox could provide the Cubs with the kind of payroll flexibility they would need to stay competitive in 2011 and 2012. With the burdensome contracts of Soriano, Big Z, Fukudome and Milton Bradley guaranteed and Aramis Ramirez's $16M 2012 option on the books, the Cubs do not have much breathing room in terms of adding "the necessary guys." A guy like Jake Fox, who can competently replace Derek Lee's offense in 2011 and 2012 (assuming he doesn't get slapped with super two status), would give the Cubs $13 to spend on gapping holes (aka, relief pitching). Rather than trading away guys for prospects and hoping the Cubs can build as good of a team as they currently have while rebuilding for the future, the Cubs have the potential to stay strong for the next few years.

Quality players who do not cost a lot are slim pickings for the Cubs, who haven't exactly had the best of drafts since 2001. Fox is a breath of fresh air. Especially since power is overpriced.