Hope you enjoy my ramblings. Below are a few of my specific liner notes of interest.
Open or closed roof?
- A 10-degree change in temperature tends to have a 1% or so effect on flyball distance, and every 10 degrees over 70 tends to bolster park factors by 2.6 points.
- The average MLB home run is about 395 feet, so each ten-degree change likely has a 4-5 foot effect on home run distance.
- The projected temperature at Chase Field tonight is 95, versus somewhere in the mid-70s or so if they close the roof and air-condition the park. The forecast for tonight in Arizona is thunderstorms, so the roof will probably be closed. Given the heat/humidity, odds are the roof would have been closed even if the forecast was sans storms.
- A closed roof could chop off up to 10 feet from tonights’ flyball distances compared to an open roof, making those “just enough” homers harder to attain, and those Slammin' Sammy/Josh Hamilton bombs unlikely.
- Wind can also affect flyball distance, so a closed roof might also further affect flyball distance beyond just temperature.
Derby Players' Vegas Odds [per BoDog]
- Jose Bautista: 3/1
- Prince Fielder: 15/4
- David Ortiz: 9/2
- Matt Holliday: 9/2
- Adrian Gonzalez: 11/2
- Matt Kemp: 15/2
- Robinson Cano: 15/2
- Rickie Weeks: 12/1
Final note: Jonny Venters is the NL’s secret weapon this year. A lefty who gets strikeouts and tons of grounders (over 75 percent groundball rate this year) is going to be the key to getting out of a high-leverage jam. Craig Kimbrell is equally as filthy a pitcher from the right side, a testament to just how disgusting the Braves bullpen is. Imagine if Billy Wagner didn’t retire.