Baseball tried to make the Home Run Derby more interesting this year by allowing the 2009 (Prince Fielder) and 2010 (David Ortiz) Derby winners to pick their respective league representatives in what is supposed to be a showcase of baseball's most fun batted ball -- the home run. However, if I were in charge, I would propose the following five changes.
1. Pitching machines. Poor Jose Bautista had the outside corner painted all night by his pitcher, and Sammy Sosa got a bellyful of cutters back in 2001. If the derby is supposed to be a showcase of massive, impressive blasts, then why not cut out the guessing game of where the pitch is going to locate across the plate, and how fast it is going to approach the plate? Let the hitters focus on one thing: hitting home runs. This will also eliminate batters taking 10 straight pitches. The only substitute for this proposal I will accept is Greg Maddux throws all the pitches.
2. Fastballs only. A big component of home run distance and propensity has to go with the speed of the ball off of the bat. The more speed, the more likely a ball is to carry farther. The slower the incoming speed of the ball, however, the more kinetic energy the batter has to supply to provide. Accordingly, change-ups tend to be harder to drive farther than fastballs. Change-ups are also less likely to get "pulled" on average than fastballs, and hence more likely to go dead center (bad for home runs) than fastballs. Plus, how many hitters have better runs values off change-ups compared to fastballs anyways? Without looking, I would have to guess few, if any, power hitters so qualify.
3. Good home run hitters only. Prince Fielder selecting teammate Rickie Weeks was a total joke. So was the selection of Matt Holliday, who is more of a line drive hitter, and whose home run total is more than 70 percent comprised of "lucky" and "just enough" home runs. Snubbed were youngsters Justin Upton, who leads the majors with four 450 foot blasts, and Mike Stanton, whose power is prolific and still developing. What about Bryce Harper, who put on his own home run showcase at Tropicana Field a couple of years ago? Where are our Russell Branyans? Our Wily Mo Penas? Our Mark Reynolds? Our Adam Dunns (OK, maybe not Adam Dunn, as U.S. Cellular's 125 home run park factor for lefties is not helping him much)? Heck, what about Ichiro Suzuki, who is the self-proclaimed king of the batting practice home run. I want to see Ichiro put his money where his mouth is.
4. "Open the roof" and play at home run happy parks. I get that the Home Run Derby is a pre-All-Star Game exhibition, but why hold it in places like PETCO Park and SafeCo Field? The next two All-Star Games/Home Run Derbies will be at Kaufmann Stadium and Citi Field, but I would move the Derbies to happier homer havens like Chicago (either park). Heck, had the roof at Chase Field been open, participants' flyballs could have gone some 10 feet further and Chase Field's surprisingly noninflationary home run park factor index have been bolstered by an extra 5 points. If the Derby was at Coors, I would demand they turn off the humidifier. Heck, I'd probably demand they turn on a dehumidifier.
5. Mandatory steroid usage. OK, so this last one is clearly a joke, but only half-halfheartedly so. Maybe metal bats could be a "legal" alternative. Remember back in the day when home runs used to routinely sail 450 feet, and only Juan Pierre/Luis Castillo could not hit 30 in a season? Ah, those were the days. Don't lie to yourself and believe that an MVP* who can't hit a 400 foot home run, let alone 20 in a season, is satisfying -- irrespective of "the under-appreciated value of defense."
*I'm referring of course to Dustin Pedroia. Interesting factoid: per Fangraphs, Pedroia's 2008 WAR total was +6.8. Jose Bautista already has +6.6 WAR through just the first half this season.
Showing posts with label Home Run Derby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Home Run Derby. Show all posts
On The Derby: DME's ESPN Radio Appearance
In case you missed it, earlier today I was on ESPN Radio discussing the Home Run Derby. You can listen to the audio by clicking here (you can hear a better audio quality here, albeit only the first 8 minutes). The audio is a bit soft, so you will likely to need headphones, but there is a lot of good chatter, so it is totally worth it. Thank you Paul Singman for recording this for me.
Hope you enjoy my ramblings. Below are a few of my specific liner notes of interest.
Open or closed roof?
Derby Players' Vegas Odds [per BoDog]
Final note: Jonny Venters is the NL’s secret weapon this year. A lefty who gets strikeouts and tons of grounders (over 75 percent groundball rate this year) is going to be the key to getting out of a high-leverage jam. Craig Kimbrell is equally as filthy a pitcher from the right side, a testament to just how disgusting the Braves bullpen is. Imagine if Billy Wagner didn’t retire.
Hope you enjoy my ramblings. Below are a few of my specific liner notes of interest.
Open or closed roof?
- A 10-degree change in temperature tends to have a 1% or so effect on flyball distance, and every 10 degrees over 70 tends to bolster park factors by 2.6 points.
- The average MLB home run is about 395 feet, so each ten-degree change likely has a 4-5 foot effect on home run distance.
- The projected temperature at Chase Field tonight is 95, versus somewhere in the mid-70s or so if they close the roof and air-condition the park. The forecast for tonight in Arizona is thunderstorms, so the roof will probably be closed. Given the heat/humidity, odds are the roof would have been closed even if the forecast was sans storms.
- A closed roof could chop off up to 10 feet from tonights’ flyball distances compared to an open roof, making those “just enough” homers harder to attain, and those Slammin' Sammy/Josh Hamilton bombs unlikely.
- Wind can also affect flyball distance, so a closed roof might also further affect flyball distance beyond just temperature.
Derby Players' Vegas Odds [per BoDog]
- Jose Bautista: 3/1
- Prince Fielder: 15/4
- David Ortiz: 9/2
- Matt Holliday: 9/2
- Adrian Gonzalez: 11/2
- Matt Kemp: 15/2
- Robinson Cano: 15/2
- Rickie Weeks: 12/1
Final note: Jonny Venters is the NL’s secret weapon this year. A lefty who gets strikeouts and tons of grounders (over 75 percent groundball rate this year) is going to be the key to getting out of a high-leverage jam. Craig Kimbrell is equally as filthy a pitcher from the right side, a testament to just how disgusting the Braves bullpen is. Imagine if Billy Wagner didn’t retire.
2011 Home Run Derby Stats
Check out my latest article at The Hardball Times by clicking here. I've tried posting the data/info here, but it will not format properly for our interface. Sorry.
The article is a compilation of break-down statistics of each home run derby contestant's power numbers, home run stats, and a map of what their home numbers would look like at Chase Field.
The article is a compilation of break-down statistics of each home run derby contestant's power numbers, home run stats, and a map of what their home numbers would look like at Chase Field.
Another Complaint of Home Run Derby
Besides not having the best home run hitters in the home run derby, I have a second complaint about the home run derby. Well, actually, this was proposed by my mom so big ups to her. We were watching some of the highlights of the derby and she asked why the players dont just use a pitching machine to hit off?
This is actually a good point for numerous reasons. First, it would make the derby go by in less than 3 arduous hours. Second, the batter would actually get the pitch he wants to hit, allowing him to destroy it 600 feet. It seems like every batter has a different guy pitching to him. All of them have different arm angles, different release points, different movement, sink, tail, drop, speed, everything you can think off. Sometimes I feel like these pitchers are trying to screw the batter by having a funky delivery, hiding the ball, short-arming it, or the absolute worse throwing a sinker. I remember Sammy Sosa in the derby in the new SafeCo Field. He only managed one or two homers because the pitcher was short-arming the ball and putting massive, late breaking sink on the ball such that Sammy couldn't elevate the ball if his secret steroid stash was depending on it. I thought I was watching Webb, Lowe, Cook, and Carmona all roled into one super-sinker that day. We need the 80 year old throwing to Josh Hamilton last year throwing to everyone, every year.
If we are using the pitching machine, why not crank that baby up to 110MPH and see players try to hit that from 60 feet 6 inches? That would add some humor following the actually derby. If we're getting way out there, we could also add an aluminum bat home run derby. I an dying to know how far Prince Fielder can hit a baseball with metal. Over/Under 600 feet?
This is actually a good point for numerous reasons. First, it would make the derby go by in less than 3 arduous hours. Second, the batter would actually get the pitch he wants to hit, allowing him to destroy it 600 feet. It seems like every batter has a different guy pitching to him. All of them have different arm angles, different release points, different movement, sink, tail, drop, speed, everything you can think off. Sometimes I feel like these pitchers are trying to screw the batter by having a funky delivery, hiding the ball, short-arming it, or the absolute worse throwing a sinker. I remember Sammy Sosa in the derby in the new SafeCo Field. He only managed one or two homers because the pitcher was short-arming the ball and putting massive, late breaking sink on the ball such that Sammy couldn't elevate the ball if his secret steroid stash was depending on it. I thought I was watching Webb, Lowe, Cook, and Carmona all roled into one super-sinker that day. We need the 80 year old throwing to Josh Hamilton last year throwing to everyone, every year.
If we are using the pitching machine, why not crank that baby up to 110MPH and see players try to hit that from 60 feet 6 inches? That would add some humor following the actually derby. If we're getting way out there, we could also add an aluminum bat home run derby. I an dying to know how far Prince Fielder can hit a baseball with metal. Over/Under 600 feet?
One more complaints of home run derby
My first complaint is that Adam Dunn has never participated in the Home Run Derby. 1 of 5 players in baseball with 40 homer power has never participated in the event perfectly designed for him? It's not because he is afraid to screw up his swing, ha thats funny, or would prefer to party really hard like Tim Lincecum making him too dizzy. It's because he has only been to the all-star game one time in his career(2002) and MLB has a silly little rule that states you can only be in the HR derby if you made the AS team. How stupid can baseball be!? All-Star weekend is designed to showcase baseballs best talent. Then why not have the best homer hitters in the derby, regardless if they are good enough to make the all star team.
What if we got rid of Inge and Mauer and inserted Dunn and Branyan? Yes, I agree, that would be a million times better, but baseball is just too stupid to do tiny things that would go a long way with the casual baseball fan. Even the NBA is smart enough to get high flyers in the slam dunk contest regarless if they made the AS team. Nate Robinson will never be an AS, but he can put on quite a show. If the NBA has the same rule, we would have never seen Robinson, J-Rich, Josh Smith or tiny Spud Webb. Baseball needs to enter the 21st century and maybe think outside the lines. But having a guy like Bud Selig running your organization will keep you in the stone age.
What if we got rid of Inge and Mauer and inserted Dunn and Branyan? Yes, I agree, that would be a million times better, but baseball is just too stupid to do tiny things that would go a long way with the casual baseball fan. Even the NBA is smart enough to get high flyers in the slam dunk contest regarless if they made the AS team. Nate Robinson will never be an AS, but he can put on quite a show. If the NBA has the same rule, we would have never seen Robinson, J-Rich, Josh Smith or tiny Spud Webb. Baseball needs to enter the 21st century and maybe think outside the lines. But having a guy like Bud Selig running your organization will keep you in the stone age.
Admit it you miss Sammy Sosa
I had zero expectations for the Home Run Derby this year and amazingly I was still incredibly underwhelmed. There was no passion from the players, the crowd, or even Chris "Back Back Back" Berman himself. Yes, Nelson Cruz impressed with his pure power and Prince's gyrating belly produced some laughs, but the demonstration as a whole did not impress. If given the chance to attend the derby, I think I would have declined the invitation and stayed happily at home. Outside of the slim chance of rubbing elbows, among other things, with Alyssa Milano, there is really nothing that I would have enjoyed at the derby in Busch Stadium.
This is becoming a scary trend of boredom that baseball needs to rectify in order to compete with the hip, new-age marketing of the NFL, NBA, and even the NHL. As the younger generations are being lured more and more to other sports dues to the glamorization of athletes in the NBA and NFL, the national past-time is becoming just that. Of the past. Who is the Lebron James of the MLB? Wade? Shaq? Brady? Even Vick? Arod is probably the most recognizable face in major league baseball, but that has to do more with his hookers, unclutchiness, and purple lipstick as opposed to being a hero to the masses.
Outside of the Josh Hamilton performance, when was the last inspiring HR derby? All the good ones were all a product of steroids. Obviously that is a thing of the past, and unless they start dispensing heroin, the Hamilton story will never be repeated. Was anyone taken aback by Bobby Abreu, Miguel Tejada, Ryan Howard? I will never forget the Big Mac performance of '99. Sammy Sosa in Atlanta and Milwaukee will stay with me for eternity. Steroids were the great marketing campaign for the MLB for 2 decades, now Bud Selig will have to wake up from him 10 year nap and maybe make a commercial outside of those Boy and Girls Club ads. All-star weekend should be the main national advertisement of baseball, but instead we get a bland production featuring Chris Berman. I hope you're psyched for Joe Buck tomorrow night. I know I'm not
Brandon Inge Will Win The Home Run Derby!
Let's be honest, there's absolutely no data whatsoever that can form a rational argument to say who will or will not win the Home Run Derby so while everybody is saying Pujols will win the Derby, I'm gonna say Brandon Inge. If I'm wrong (which I'm sure I will be) who the fuck cares!? But if I win, then I look like a genius.
