Box Score Tonight: TBO Edition

Sexy Rexy was too busy pimping out his bitches and hoes this week to watch any football, so TBO has to do Box Score Tonight in the middle of midterms. I better get a discount Sexy Rexy that's all i'm sayin

• The Jags win their second straight game after MJD called out the team, though it was against the Bills so I'll give them half a win. Mike Sims-Walker wakes up from the dead for a TD score and Garrard has a very Garrard game. 80% 3/1 TD/INT
• Despite trading away Marshawn Lynch, CJ Spiller only gets 5 carries. Maybe thats why you suck Buffalo. That or your overweight cheerleaders. In you face
• News flash, TO has ideas about how to get the Bengals to start scoring some points, but no one will listen to him. He is getting the ball, a lot with a second 100+ yard game and a TD. Ochocinco on the other hand is quickly becoming the 2nd if not 3rd option for Palmer and his 78 QB rating
• Tampa is quietly 3-1 and Josh Freeman may actually be a legit QB one day. 85 QB rating as a 22 year old is pretty sweat.
• Michael Turner finally breaks out 2008 style with 140 yards. Seneca Wallace got hurt so the Browns had to it was Jake Delhomme time! 13/23 97 yards 2 int. Giggidy giggidy goo
• Sam Bradford struggles against the Detroit D as the Lions lay a 38 point wooping on the Rams. 5 different receivers all catch 4 passed for the Lions, CJ gets another TD
• Peyton Manning puts up a 65 QB rating so the Colts lost, right? Nope. Colts run 20 more plays than the Chiefs, hold the ball and win 19-9. No receiver on the Chiefs is worth owning, but Jamal Charles is finally the #1 back
• TBO picked GB to lose to Washington, because I just dont believe in the cheeseheads the way everyone else does. No RB, too many injuries, you just cant win like that especially when the #1 receiver Jennings d/n show up half the time
• Nothing of note for the Skins, but if your a fan just be happy you finally have a good coach. Not hard when you follow Jim Zorn to be honest
• Ta da da Chicago Bears, 4-1 baby. When you win a game where your QB completes just 2 less passes to the other team, than he does to his own is pretty impressive. 6.2 rating. Is Collins cut yet? My intramural football QB is better than Collins. Matt Forte woke up on the right side of the bed Sunday and ran for 166 and 2 TD. I'll take it. And Peppers is really good at football
• Kyle Orton has another 300 yard game, so I'm guessing Josh McDaniels can make anyone a legit QB, but they are dead last in rushing (I assume without looking it up). Alert Alert Bradon Lloyd 135 yards and 2 TDs. In the words of Hawk Harrelson, "you've got to be [bleeping] me, MERCY!
• Still Ray Rice dominates the game on the ground with 2 scores and anyone knows the run beats the pass 70% of the time, everytime
• Tiki Barber called out the Giants for quiting on their coach, so they responded by knocking out fools. Dominated the Bears, now dominate the Texans. Hakeem Nicks goes Brandon Lloyd and Foster and Johnson just get shut down
• Cardinals finally get a win under rookie Max Hall. They don't score any offensive TDs with a QB rating of 65 and a YPC of 1.7, but the D scores 3 times, include 1/2 of my favorite NFL relative Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
• Drew Brees continues to struggle, though Colston finally breaks out for 97 yards
• Alert Alert Alert the Cowboys are 1-3. Oh no, hell is freezing over, this cannot be. Not Americas team. Who the frick cares. Most of us dont even remember the great Cowboys teams so the only thing any of us remember is their lack of a playoff win. Ever. Still Romo dominates, Felix Jones is getting his carries, and Miles Austin may be the top receiver in the game. Still so many issues, starting and ending with Wade Phillips.
• Vince Young just wins. Plays solid, hands off to CJ, who runs for 130 and 2 scores. Yes, he is struggling, yet still on pace for 1552 yards on the ground. Not too shaby
• Jason Campbell got his job back from the griddy, scrappy Bruce Gradkowski and does a superb job. On the other side Phillip Rivers keeps rising up the QB depth chart, but has so little help on the ground and defense. Kinda sad
• Kevin Kolb can play a little QB. Still not up to par with Michael Vick, but showed some nice skills of his own. McCoy is the next great Pitt grad following Larry Fitzgerald and Darrell Revis. On the other sidelines, Mike Singletary should do a little less screaming and a bit more coaching. Ohh, and Michael Crabtree looks like the Texas Tech Michael Crabtree for the first time
• I am so on the Jets bandwagon. Revis and the other half of my fav relatives Antonio Cromartie. Santonio Holmes and Edwards. Green and Tomlinson. Mangold and Feguson. Pretty solid
• Favre plays like shit, dont care about his 3TDs. Apparently Randy Moss only knew one route cause he just went deep on every play and it only worked once. Favre may actually have to miss a game with tendinitis of the elbow. Or tendinosis to be more accurate.

In related news, do you think the NFL will have to take out the chains to measure the pics Brett Favre sent to Jenn Sterger. Zing!

Is it just me or does Arod look a lot like Brett Favre

What If Brett Favre Comes To The Vikings?

If you've been watching SportsCenter or ESPN at all this football off season, you know that it is rumored that Brett Favre will be a Minnesota Viking next year. With Favre undergoing arthroscopic surgery today, that rumor seems to be becoming more and more of a reality each day. While I personally find this humorous because the Packers did everything in their control when trading Favre, to make sure he didn't become a Viking, and now he will probably become one. But if Favre does play for Minnesota, what will that mean for the team? You hear people say that Minnesota is just a QB away from a Superbowl ring? Is that true? Well let's find out.

Luckily, the 2008 New York Jets and the 2009 Minnesota Vikings are very comparable. Both have seemingly below average receivers, an average offensive line, and a great running game. This means it is very easy to see what Brett Favre did last year and translate that to what we will probably be able to do this year.

Running Game: Now if I gave you a choice between Adrian Peterson and Thomas Jones, which RB would you pick? Of course. But in terms of actual production last year, both were very similar. Because of New York's improved O-line, Thomas Jones had a career year last year. In terms of football sabermetric statistics, TJ had a better year with a better DVOA and DYAR than AP. In fact, All Day was just average. But we're talking about the running game in terms of the quarterback. Last year, Minnesota was ranked 5th in YPG and yards(NYJ 9th) but 3rd in attempts (NYJ 19th). Both teams had a very good and effective running game.

Conclusion: If Brett goes to Minnesota, they will probably run the ball more meaning Favre will not have to throw it as much as he did in New York. However, New York was much more effective AT running the ball. So the running game will probably help Favre but in reality, Minnesota's running game is not THAT much of an upgrade.

Receivers: In New York, Favre's main targets were Jericho Cotchery and Lav Coles. Coles was ranked 27th in DVOA, 36th in DVOA, and had 71 catches for 858 yards. Cotchery was ranked 34 in DYAR, 48 in DVOA, and had 70 catches for 850 yards. If Brett comes to Minnesota his main targets will be Bernard Berrian and rookie Percy Harvin. Last year Berrian was 18th in both DYAR and DVOA and 48 catches for 964. While there are obviously no stats on Harvin to judge, I will compare him to Eddie Royal. Royal was probably the best rookie wide out last year so we're going under the assumption that Harvin will make an immediate impact. Harvin (Royal) in '08: 32 in DYAR, 47 in DVOA, with 91 catches for 980 yards.

Conclusion: Favre's #1 target in Minnesota will be better than his #1 in New York, but he's going to be throwing to an unproved rookie in '09. If Harvin works out, Favre's recievers will be superior to the ones he had last year. But I made a huge assumption about Harvin, especially considering most rookie wide outs are flops.

Offensive Line: Minnesota had a terrible passing offensive line last year ranked 5th to last in all of the NFL. The NYJ had an average line ranked 18th overall, but still ten spots better than Minnesota. Neither team really made huge positive offensive line moves, in fact, the Vikings LOST their center Matt Birk to free agency. And Birk was far inferior to Jets' Nick Mangold last year.

Conclusion: The offensive line is the essential factor to a QB. In fact, a team can have a great RB (especially one like AP that's good despite, not because, of the o-line) and good receivers and it won't matter if the QB is constantly getting rushed and sacked. But a QB can make a O-line as well. If a QB is good at throwing the ball accurately and early and eluding tackles, the the O-line looks better. So if Brett comes to play for Minnesota, that line will probably look a lot better; however, I see the ceiling no higher than what the Jets were last year. This means that Brett will still probably have a below average O-line, just like last year

Quarterbacks: In this discussion, we're not only talking about how Brett Favre would fare in the purple and black, but how much improvement would that make to Viks. Last year, Minnesota ranked 15th in YPA, 18th in passer rating, and 25th in YPG. This is actually worse than what Farve did. The New York Bretts were 7 spots lower in YPA, 1.3 points lower in passer rating (a 5 ranking drop), although nine spots higher in YPG. Tavaris Jackson was pretty bad last year ranking 25th in DYAR and 17th in DVOA. But Farve wasn't too far ahead ranking 20th in DYAR and actually ranked 9 spots lower than Jackson in DVOA.

Conclusion: Favre was only a little bit better in overall value than Jackson but actually worse on an average individual play. Favre may have posted better individual numbers than Jackson but did so very inefficiently. Although that shouldn't come as a surprise considering that's how come Farve holds the #1 in most categories like TDs and games won (along with INTs). Plus, if you just watched Brett in the second half of the season or looked at box scores, it was painfully obvious he was the sole reason the Jets did not make the playoffs last year.

So now that we have the statistics, what's the final overall conclusion? Although Favre had some nice talent at the RB and WR positions last year, the talent will only increase if he moves from New York to Minnesota. But that's only secondary help. Sure a QB needs other parts to help him out, but the primary factors are the line and the QB himself. And it is in these areas the Vikings are not really improving nor does Brett gain any improvements from last year. It is this that tells me that Brett really won't be a huge factor if and when he comes to the Vikings. And if Brett quits on the Vikings like he did in Minnesota, then that only bodes well for me as a Bears fan.

So for all you other Bears fans, or even bitter Packers fans, I think you need not worry that Brett Favre plays for the Minnesota Vikings.

Why Is Brett Favre Not Considered The Best Ever?

Yes, I realize Brett Favre "retired" which means he's going to come back soon, if not next year and thus skew his stats, but as of right now Brett holds the #1 spot in most statistical categories. Yet, when you ask essentially all sports analysts, they do not put Brett is the best QB of all time. What? If Brett is statistically the best ever, they why is not considered the best ever? If a baseball player had the best BA, OBS, SLG, HR, and (thus) OPS of all time, then he would be considered the best ever (assuming no steroids of course). But why is is not the same in football?

The main reason analysts give is that Brett only went to two Superbowls and only won one. Even though he has three MVPs (only one of two players to do this), his lone Superbowl win hurts his "all-time" ranking. My problem with this reasoning is that the QB is not the only factor in determining Superbowl winning teams. There are such things as a defense and linemen. So while Brett certainly helped his team win playoffs games and regular season games, it's NOT all on him to win Superbowls.

Brett is an extremely mobile quarterback who has the ability to make something out of nothing, the ability to throw the accurate long ball and the accurate short pass. He is an iron man and one of the nicest people you'll ever meet (so I've heard). So let's take a look at his stats, all of them, to see maybe why he's not the best ever.

Favre is first all time in YDS, TD, Games Started, WINS, Pass Attempts, Pass Completions, and of course INT. Being first in YRDS, TD, Pass Completions and Games Started should give a guy the best all time label right there right? I mean, yes we threw a lot on INTS as well, but still being first in all those other stats should give him the best QB ever.

Here's some other stats Brett has done well in. He's 9th all time YDS/Game, 4th all time is Pass Att/Game, 5th all time in playoff games started and 5th all time in Passes Completed/ Game. He has been to 10 pro bowls and three times was the first string. He also has 3 consecutive MVPs, something no one else has.

But it's when you take a look at some more stats that you start to see the entire Brett Favre picture: Favre is 78th all time in YPA, 190th in YDS/Completion, 26th in Net YPA, 17th in Pass Completion Percentage, 23rd in Adj Net YPA, and 20th in Passer Rating. I also remember reading an article on ESPN.com a few years ago saying Brett has just an above average DVOA. He has was also 2nd all time in fumbles lost and 5th all time is SACKS. It's these statistics here that you see Brett was really only a mediocre QB who ended up playing a shit ton of games. And THIS is why Favre eneded up being #1 in all those other statistics.

Now I still have massive respect for Brett Favre and I think he is most certainly top ten if not top five greatest QBs of all time. But I say this despite his Superbowls (or lack thereof).

My main problem I guess is ESPN telling us that Brett is Numero Uno in all these "Major Categories" yet still saying he's not number one of all time. It's like saying a player is the best in standard fantasy leagues therefore he's the best of all time. It also means my analogy in the beginning is a little bit off. What I guess was meant to say was that, "Imagine a baseball player has the best BA, SB, HR, RBI, and R of all time, is he the best ever" That's essentially what ESPN is saying about Brett Favre and it's a false comparison to make and is extremely misleading. And of course not true.

So like many of my articles before, fuck you ESPN and you're reasoning!

Favre is retiring...Seriously this time...Stop laughing

It's official, the melodrama that is the Brett Favre retirement watch is back on. Just when you thought ESPN would give you a 2 week break from football between the super bowl and the combine, Favre decided to ruin it for everyone. Every sports show will now debate whether Favre is serious this time, whether he's gonna back out at the last second, will he go back to the packers, the bears, the lions. Tre Wingo is the happiest person in the world right now.

Honestly speaking, I do think this is the end of the road for 3-time NFl MVP. 3 of the last 4 years have been pretty dismal, with QB ratings in the 70's, excluding the magical 2007 packers team. His consecutive games streak will live on, his legacy in tact, his gunslinger reputation preceding him.

Brett Favre vs. Chad Pennington

This Sunday the Dolphins will play the New York Jets. And as ESPN's First Take loves to, they asked this question to Skip Bayless and um, nobody cares who else Skip faced: "This year, who is the better QB, Favre or Pennington?" The opponent said Pennington, I think, and Skip went on a two minute pompous rant about about how Favre is better. His logic actually isn't that bad. Pennington is in a West Coast offense which includes a lot of dink and dumps which pad Pennington's stats whereas Brett Favre plays the more traditional role as a QB and essentially "earns" his stats because he's forced to actually look at defensive schemes and make plays.

But let's take a closer look at stats. I'm going to discount passer rating for this argument because if Pennington truely is better because of lots of dink and dumps, his passer rating should be inflated. I think the best stat to look at is Yards Per Attempt. If Brett Favre is truly better because he doesn't dink and dump, then he should have a better YPA than Pennington.

Pennington: 7.74 YPA, 6th in the NFL
Farve: 6.72 YPA, 22nd in the NFL

Even if run after the catches help Chad's YPA, there's no reason Favre's YPA should be THAT low. Advantage: Pennington

Another important stat one COULD look at is completion percentage. Now here, Pennington should have a high comp %. (In fact, I was watching SportsCenter one day and they showed one game where Chad P. had 11 straight completions yet the vast majority of them WERE dink and dumps and it would have been pathetic if he DIDN'T have 11 straight completions on the type of passes he threw). But if Favre has a comp % even CLOSE to Pennington, then Farve his better because his completions are more skilled and harder to do

Pennington: 67.0% t-2nd
Favre: 67.0% t-2nd

Advantage: Favre

Let's look over some other stats:

TD/INT ratio:

Pennignton: 17 TD/ 7 INT, 2.43
Favre: 21 TD/ 19 INT, 1.11

Yes Favre should have more INTs and TDs than Chad but there's absolutely no excuse, whatsoever, for that low of a TD/INT ratio

Advantage: Pennington

Football Outsider stats:

Pennington: 5th in DVOA, 7th in DYAR
Favre: 23rd in DVOA, 19th in DYAR

Advantage: Pennington (and it's not even close)

Chad Pennington is BY FAR the better quarterback this year. Brett Favre gives up WAY too many interceptions and has superior less value than Chad Pennington. And considering Favre's top two receivers are far better than Pennington's (look up Ted Ginn Jr, Devone Bess, Jericho Cotchery, and Lav Coles's stats on footballoutsiders.com) it's really pathetic how bad Favre is this year.

Kudos, Chad P. for having a great 2008 season and I'm sorry Favre stole your pro bowl selection

SIDENOTE: Chad Pennington is 2nd in the NFL in passer rating and Favre is 18th behind QBs like Shaun Hill, Trent Edwards, Eli Manning, and Jason Campbell. Now passer rating is clearly a flawed statistic but if you're really high in passer rating then your a really good QB. If you're mediocre in passer rating, then you're just a mediocre QB. So don't look how many spots there are between Pennington and Favre so know that Pennington is at the top so he's good and Favre is towards the middle so he's just mediocre.

SIDENOTE 2: This is NOT a statement for who's career is better because Brett Favre CLEARLY wins that one, this is JUST for the 2008/2009 season