I recently read a great article looking at Chicago Cubs catcher Geovany Soto and what his value is to the Chicago Cubs. Recently, TBO and myself went through every position on the Cubs and evaluated what the new GM will need to do at that position. Eventually we will have to actually podcast or write up that conversation, but there aren't many players the Cubs can build around for the future.
When we got to catcher and especially to Geovany Soto, TBO and myself disagreed. I like Soto, and think he is valuable compared to catchers around the league, but don't think he is consistent or reliable. I don't know if he is the answer as one of the building blocks for this team, but TBO thought he was. I don't think as highly as TBO does of him, but I do think he is the best catcher the Cubs will be able to get for the position, just not necessarily a building block for the team.
This article did a great job of breaking down the inconsistency’s of Geovany Soto.
Showing posts with label Geovany Soto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geovany Soto. Show all posts
Geovany Soto: Where Have You Gone (Part 2)
Earlier this year, I analyzed Geovany Soto's "sophomore slump." Through a medley of serious injuries (which zapped his power) and bad luck (which zapped his BA/OBP), Soto's improving approach at the plate was masked beneath the appearance of "slumpiness."
After posting a super .285/.364/.504 (.868 OPS) triple slash line with an 11.2 BB% and 24.5 K% in his rookie of the year season, Geo Soto posted a disappointing .218/.321/.381 (.702 OPS) triple slash line last year with an ISO that fell over .050 points. No one is arguing that Geovany Soto's production fell short of expectations last year; however, Soto's peripherals seem to indicate that he is not a one-season wonder and that the team may have a golden opportunity, a la The Braves with Brian McCann, to lock Soto up long term for cheap.
Despite all of his failures last season, Geovany Soto improved his walk rate (13.1 BB%) and decreased his strikeout rate (23.3 K%). He swung at more pitches inside of the zone and less outside of the zone in 2009 compared to 2008. Soto also increased his contact rates on pitches both in and outside of the zone. These factors point to improvement and Soto's 2009 seemingly would have been equally good, if not better, than his 2008 rookie season if not for injury and bad luck.
First, let's look at the injury aspect. As previously noted, shoulder and oblique injuries are deadly. They limit movement and range, which limits strong contact and power. Beyond the dip in ISO, this is noticeable in Soto's change in runs produced per 100 pitches for each and every pitch type between 2008 and 2009. Soto's ability to drive fastballs decreased by almost a full run (also visible in Soto's -2.9% change in LD% last season), while breaking pitches --most of which Soto had success with in 2008 -- became almost "unhittable" (clearly Soto was making contact with him, as evidenced by the increase in contact percentage, but he was unable to drive the ball with sufficient authority due to his injuries, which the Cubs rushed Soto back from, that gave him limited mobility). With no WBC in 2010 and plenty of time to recuperate from a long and injured 2009, Soto should be back in full health next season and -- assuming he retains his gains in K%, BB% and contact rates -- he should be ready to return to form.
The second problem with Soto's 2009 season was plain old poor luck. From a .337 BABIP in 2008 to a .251 BABIP in 2009, it is no surprise that Soto's OPS fell by a whopping .166 points. Soto's 2009 xBABIP (screenshot of the xBABIP calculator pictured right) was a significantly
higher and more palpable .314. By adjusting Soto's 2009 triple slash line by utilizing his .314 xBABIP (assuming all additional hits would have been singles), we find that Soto's luck-neutral (but still injury affected) 2009 triple slash line would have been .269/.365/.432 (.797 OPS). Had Soto not been limited by injury, that .797 figure would have easily approached his .868 rookie season OPS (which was slightly inflated by good luck).
Assuming that his shoulder and obliques are healthy in 2010, there is much reason to expect big things from Geo Soto. Between a rebound by Soto, a full season by Aramis Ramirez and an expected rebound by Milton Bradley (if he is not traded) and Alfonso Soriano (he can't been 2009 bad next year...can he?), there is no reason the Cubs cannot compete and win in 2010. In 2008, they had one of the league's best offenses. The Cubs 2009 was marred by injury and bad luck to many core players. With their rebound and perhaps D-Lee's return to form, the Cubs should be the NL central force to fear next year.
And just in case you are like Jim Hendry and not big on Milton Bradley, let me do a quick luck adjustment for his .257/.378/.397 (.775 OPS), as his .311 BABIP was lower than his .326 xBABIP. Assuming that Milton Bradley's power outage (his 2009 ISO was .035 pts below his career ISO) continues, his 2009 luck neutral adjusted line (assuming all additional hits would be singles) would have been a much less ugly .270/.390/.410 (.800 OPS) line. That's an .800 OPS hitting for power like Juan Pierre. Bradley normally doesn't hit like Juan Pierre. Hate him all you want; that .390 OBP is valuable at the top of the order even without power.
After posting a super .285/.364/.504 (.868 OPS) triple slash line with an 11.2 BB% and 24.5 K% in his rookie of the year season, Geo Soto posted a disappointing .218/.321/.381 (.702 OPS) triple slash line last year with an ISO that fell over .050 points. No one is arguing that Geovany Soto's production fell short of expectations last year; however, Soto's peripherals seem to indicate that he is not a one-season wonder and that the team may have a golden opportunity, a la The Braves with Brian McCann, to lock Soto up long term for cheap.
Despite all of his failures last season, Geovany Soto improved his walk rate (13.1 BB%) and decreased his strikeout rate (23.3 K%). He swung at more pitches inside of the zone and less outside of the zone in 2009 compared to 2008. Soto also increased his contact rates on pitches both in and outside of the zone. These factors point to improvement and Soto's 2009 seemingly would have been equally good, if not better, than his 2008 rookie season if not for injury and bad luck.
First, let's look at the injury aspect. As previously noted, shoulder and oblique injuries are deadly. They limit movement and range, which limits strong contact and power. Beyond the dip in ISO, this is noticeable in Soto's change in runs produced per 100 pitches for each and every pitch type between 2008 and 2009. Soto's ability to drive fastballs decreased by almost a full run (also visible in Soto's -2.9% change in LD% last season), while breaking pitches --most of which Soto had success with in 2008 -- became almost "unhittable" (clearly Soto was making contact with him, as evidenced by the increase in contact percentage, but he was unable to drive the ball with sufficient authority due to his injuries, which the Cubs rushed Soto back from, that gave him limited mobility). With no WBC in 2010 and plenty of time to recuperate from a long and injured 2009, Soto should be back in full health next season and -- assuming he retains his gains in K%, BB% and contact rates -- he should be ready to return to form.
The second problem with Soto's 2009 season was plain old poor luck. From a .337 BABIP in 2008 to a .251 BABIP in 2009, it is no surprise that Soto's OPS fell by a whopping .166 points. Soto's 2009 xBABIP (screenshot of the xBABIP calculator pictured right) was a significantly
higher and more palpable .314. By adjusting Soto's 2009 triple slash line by utilizing his .314 xBABIP (assuming all additional hits would have been singles), we find that Soto's luck-neutral (but still injury affected) 2009 triple slash line would have been .269/.365/.432 (.797 OPS). Had Soto not been limited by injury, that .797 figure would have easily approached his .868 rookie season OPS (which was slightly inflated by good luck).Assuming that his shoulder and obliques are healthy in 2010, there is much reason to expect big things from Geo Soto. Between a rebound by Soto, a full season by Aramis Ramirez and an expected rebound by Milton Bradley (if he is not traded) and Alfonso Soriano (he can't been 2009 bad next year...can he?), there is no reason the Cubs cannot compete and win in 2010. In 2008, they had one of the league's best offenses. The Cubs 2009 was marred by injury and bad luck to many core players. With their rebound and perhaps D-Lee's return to form, the Cubs should be the NL central force to fear next year.
And just in case you are like Jim Hendry and not big on Milton Bradley, let me do a quick luck adjustment for his .257/.378/.397 (.775 OPS), as his .311 BABIP was lower than his .326 xBABIP. Assuming that Milton Bradley's power outage (his 2009 ISO was .035 pts below his career ISO) continues, his 2009 luck neutral adjusted line (assuming all additional hits would be singles) would have been a much less ugly .270/.390/.410 (.800 OPS) line. That's an .800 OPS hitting for power like Juan Pierre. Bradley normally doesn't hit like Juan Pierre. Hate him all you want; that .390 OBP is valuable at the top of the order even without power.
Geovany Soto, where have you gone?
From both a real-life and fantasy perspective, Geovany Soto's 2009 season has been a massive disappointment. From a .285/.365/.504 triple slash line in 2008 to a .218/.323/.380 line in 2009, many people (from sports radio hosts to blog writers) have called Geo Soto this season's biggest disappointment, citing such baseless claims as "the sophomore jinx" and "it's mentally difficult to play in Chicago." I would agree that Geovany Soto's 2009 season has been disappointing, but for entirely separate reasons, many of which leave hope for 2010.
At the first and foremost level behind "the slump," Geovany Soto's 2009 season has been marred by a series of shoulder and oblique injuries. Injuries that, especially early on, the Cubs never let properly heal. After straining his shoulder in the beginning of the season, a look at Soto's game log reveals that the Cubs only sat their backstop out for five games (pinch hitting him once in that span). Shoulder injuries, as anyone named B.J. Upton or this Orthopedic study will attest, can unequivocally disable a player's performance level. I'm no Doctor, but from what I can gather, the shoulder muscles (specifically the supraspinatus muscle) are essential to arm elevation and stabilization of dynamic arm motion. Additionally, injuries and pain in the shoulder "may manifest throughout the body." This is not to even mention the fact that hitting for power comes from the torque generated by the hips and from the oblique muscles.
So what does this all mean? It means you absolutely don't rush someone with a shoulder strain (or an oblique injury) back to the lineup; you give them time to heal and recuperate, rather force them to play hurt and potentially aggravate minor injuries (for more information on aggravating minor injuries, check out what the Mets did to Johan Santana this season, despite an All-Star break evaluation that indicated Johan was pitching through persistent soreness). A look at Soto's monthly splits from 2009 highlights the effect of injury on a player's game -- the .398 OPS in April and .731 OPS in May clearly indicate that Soto's power stroke was greatly affected by the early season injury that was never allowed to properly heal. He looked healthy come June (.916) and early July (.841), until a oblique injury in the beginning of the second half sidelined him over a month and again affected his power stroke (.492 OPS). Soto's been strong in the EXTREMELY tiny sample size of September PA's he's been given (1.214 OPS in 9 PA's), but with the Cubs disasterously disappointing 2009 season almost over (11.5 games back of the Cardinals), the Cubs (and Geovany Soto) should focus more on resting their all-star backstop for next season rather than "breaking him out of his slump" -- especially because Soto's core skillset has improved each season in the majors, including this year.
Outside the power aspect, which I strongly account to mismanaged injury, Geovany Soto's peripheral statistics have simultaneously improved and been the subject of poor luck this season. In 2007 and 2008, Soto has respective K rates of 25.9% and 24.5%. This season, Soto has continued to shave down the strikeouts, posting a 23.2 K%. Over this same time frame, Soto has increased his BB rate from 8.5% to 11.2% to a current rate of 13.4%. Soto has gone from a batter with a giant hole in his swing (0.36 BB/K in 2007) to a hitter with quality command of the strike zone (0.67 BB/K, 0.50 MLB avg). Soto has largely accomplished this step forward in his game by gradually cutting down on his hacks at pitches outside of the zone (22.3% O-Swing in 2007, 20.5% in 2008, 18.1% in 2009; MLB avg is around 25.1%). Soto has also increased his contact rate this season (77.6% in 2009, 74.7% in 2009).
The usually elite line drive rate is down a significant chunk (from 21% to 19.8%) compared to last season, but that may have a lot to do with his shoulder injury early in the season (it is difficult to drive the ball when you have lingering soreness and pain lifting the shoulder). This may account for some, but not all of the 86-point plummet in BABIP -- the rest has been pure bad luck. Even at his depressed seasonal LD%, Soto's quick XBABIP (LD%+.120) is somewhere around .315 or .320 -- well below the .251 mark he's posted on the season. The massively low BABIP (and consistent 1.9ish speed score over 2007-2009) screams for better days ahead. It's not like smoking marijuana slows down your reflexes or anything, right?
Put this all together and you get the portrait of a productive player who has been hampered by injury and bad luck. Geovany Soto's minor and major league numbers indicate that he has the legitimate power -- even if his true maintainable ISO is only around .180 (Matt Kemp territory), well below the .200 career average mark, he's still a 20+ HR hitter -- and quality eye (13.4 BB% this season, 11.4% career average) to provide the Cubs lineup with the necessary offensive production required for success. 2009 may be a lost cause, but if the Cubs can keep Soto healthy going into 2010 and get some positive luck regression from Geovany Soto (in addition to Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley), the Cubs prospects for success in 2010 look pretty good. Not as good as they appeared going into this season, but Cubs fans should have some hope going into next season -- especially if pre-wrist injury Derrek Lee is back for good. Let's just hope the re-sign Rich Harden in the offseason.
At the first and foremost level behind "the slump," Geovany Soto's 2009 season has been marred by a series of shoulder and oblique injuries. Injuries that, especially early on, the Cubs never let properly heal. After straining his shoulder in the beginning of the season, a look at Soto's game log reveals that the Cubs only sat their backstop out for five games (pinch hitting him once in that span). Shoulder injuries, as anyone named B.J. Upton or this Orthopedic study will attest, can unequivocally disable a player's performance level. I'm no Doctor, but from what I can gather, the shoulder muscles (specifically the supraspinatus muscle) are essential to arm elevation and stabilization of dynamic arm motion. Additionally, injuries and pain in the shoulder "may manifest throughout the body." This is not to even mention the fact that hitting for power comes from the torque generated by the hips and from the oblique muscles.
So what does this all mean? It means you absolutely don't rush someone with a shoulder strain (or an oblique injury) back to the lineup; you give them time to heal and recuperate, rather force them to play hurt and potentially aggravate minor injuries (for more information on aggravating minor injuries, check out what the Mets did to Johan Santana this season, despite an All-Star break evaluation that indicated Johan was pitching through persistent soreness). A look at Soto's monthly splits from 2009 highlights the effect of injury on a player's game -- the .398 OPS in April and .731 OPS in May clearly indicate that Soto's power stroke was greatly affected by the early season injury that was never allowed to properly heal. He looked healthy come June (.916) and early July (.841), until a oblique injury in the beginning of the second half sidelined him over a month and again affected his power stroke (.492 OPS). Soto's been strong in the EXTREMELY tiny sample size of September PA's he's been given (1.214 OPS in 9 PA's), but with the Cubs disasterously disappointing 2009 season almost over (11.5 games back of the Cardinals), the Cubs (and Geovany Soto) should focus more on resting their all-star backstop for next season rather than "breaking him out of his slump" -- especially because Soto's core skillset has improved each season in the majors, including this year.
Outside the power aspect, which I strongly account to mismanaged injury, Geovany Soto's peripheral statistics have simultaneously improved and been the subject of poor luck this season. In 2007 and 2008, Soto has respective K rates of 25.9% and 24.5%. This season, Soto has continued to shave down the strikeouts, posting a 23.2 K%. Over this same time frame, Soto has increased his BB rate from 8.5% to 11.2% to a current rate of 13.4%. Soto has gone from a batter with a giant hole in his swing (0.36 BB/K in 2007) to a hitter with quality command of the strike zone (0.67 BB/K, 0.50 MLB avg). Soto has largely accomplished this step forward in his game by gradually cutting down on his hacks at pitches outside of the zone (22.3% O-Swing in 2007, 20.5% in 2008, 18.1% in 2009; MLB avg is around 25.1%). Soto has also increased his contact rate this season (77.6% in 2009, 74.7% in 2009).
The usually elite line drive rate is down a significant chunk (from 21% to 19.8%) compared to last season, but that may have a lot to do with his shoulder injury early in the season (it is difficult to drive the ball when you have lingering soreness and pain lifting the shoulder). This may account for some, but not all of the 86-point plummet in BABIP -- the rest has been pure bad luck. Even at his depressed seasonal LD%, Soto's quick XBABIP (LD%+.120) is somewhere around .315 or .320 -- well below the .251 mark he's posted on the season. The massively low BABIP (and consistent 1.9ish speed score over 2007-2009) screams for better days ahead. It's not like smoking marijuana slows down your reflexes or anything, right?
Put this all together and you get the portrait of a productive player who has been hampered by injury and bad luck. Geovany Soto's minor and major league numbers indicate that he has the legitimate power -- even if his true maintainable ISO is only around .180 (Matt Kemp territory), well below the .200 career average mark, he's still a 20+ HR hitter -- and quality eye (13.4 BB% this season, 11.4% career average) to provide the Cubs lineup with the necessary offensive production required for success. 2009 may be a lost cause, but if the Cubs can keep Soto healthy going into 2010 and get some positive luck regression from Geovany Soto (in addition to Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley), the Cubs prospects for success in 2010 look pretty good. Not as good as they appeared going into this season, but Cubs fans should have some hope going into next season -- especially if pre-wrist injury Derrek Lee is back for good. Let's just hope the re-sign Rich Harden in the offseason.
Cubs emergency catcher for 2009
Every team has an emergency catcher in case something happens to the other two. There can be many scenarios on why a team may have to use an emergency catcher. If one catcher starts and the second one comes into the game to pinch hit or on a double switch and something happens to them like an injury, then a team may have to use an emergency catcher. Rarely does a team actually have to use an emergency catcher. Most teams may not make it clear who the emergency catcher is and will deal with the issue if it does happen. For some reason the Cubs have a history of making it clear who that is. In the past the Cubs emergency catchers were Matt Murton, Ramon Martinez, Jose Macias, and I am probably forgetting a few. This year it is obvious that Jake Fox is the Cubs emergency catcher. The Cubs drafted him as a catcher and he played that position in the Cubs organization until three years ago when Lou came to the Cubs and saw him play in spring training. He was very impressed by Fox’s bat, but not is defense so he moved him. The Cubs starting catcher Geovany Soto is injured and day to day. The backup Hill is not that good offensively so the Cubs may start Fox at Catcher to get his bat in the lineup. If Fox is not terrible behind the plate I say they should play him more at catcher until Soto is healthy and then have him play there occasionally to give Soto a break.
Who is the White Sox emergency Catcher?
Who is the White Sox emergency Catcher?
Lou isnt senile, he's high on dope
Lou Pinella can empathize with Soto's positive marijuana test. He admitted to reporters that he once tried the hippie lettuce.
"Look, I have smoked dope one time in my life, and it didn't do a damn thing for me, and I never tried it again," he said. "And I'm fortunate because of that. But a lot of people do [smoke marijuana]. You can buy it in California from a pharmacy.Considering Lou played in the 70's I'm awefully sure he tried many things other than pot. With pot comes the munchies so maybe that explains why Soto is looking a little pudgy this year. Although he did just hit a 3 run homer against the Sox. Woohoo!
Soto smokes the ganja
Geovany Soto is banned for two years of international baseball competition for testing positive for marijuana during the WBC.
News flash: no one cares. The WBC is bullshit and the next one is four years away.
Before speaking with reporters after the Cubs' 6-5 loss at Detroit, Soto released a statement saying he was "embarrassed by my lapse in judgment" in riding the canni-bus.
Soto then downed an entire family size bag of Fritos. (OK, we can't confirm that last part.)"While I full acknowledge my inappropriate behavior, I want to assure my fans and my family that this was an isolated incident," Soto added.
News flash: no one cares. The WBC is bullshit and the next one is four years away.
What is wrong with Geovany Soto?
I am not a proponent the old baseball cliche "hitting is contagious", however anyone who has seen the last roadtrip where the cubs scored 5 runs in 6 games, it's hard to overlook the team-wide hitting slump. The person i'm most disappointed with is Geovany Soto, because he has shown himself to be an all-star caliber player with excellent offensive skills for a catcher. However, he is currently sitting at the mendoza line with a single home run and single digit runs and RBIs. So what is wrong with Soto?
Some people want to blame the WBC. Firstly, Soto never had a full spring training, due to his obligation to the Puerto Rican national team, where he was benched most of the time for Ivan Rodriguez. Secondly, when he did arive to the Cubs, he had a severe shoulder injuriy that sidelined him for another 3 weeks. Whether the injury was due to the WBC is debateable, but surely is partly responsible to the slow start Soto has had behind the plate. Other people will blame his weight on teh struggles. Soto is a pretty heafty individual and this year appears to be even heavier. Finally, the only other explination is that Soto had a fluke year last year, and is actually an older prospect who is only average offensively.
However, looking at Soto's advanced statistics on fangraphs.com, I see no reason that Soto shouldn't rebound to his 2008 form and have another productive offensive season. Nearly all of Soto's stats are identicle to last year, except for the extremely low batting average and slugging percentage. One of the main reasons to explain this the great disparity between the BABIP from this year and last. Last year it was .338, much higher than major league average, but sustainable due to his 20% line drive percentage. This year the value has dropped to a meager .266 despite an equivalent 20% line drive percentage. Clearly Soto has been getting quite unlucky in terms of batting average, however it still does not explain the decreased slugging percentage which sits at .066, which is lower than David Eckstein for reference. The problem is the 3% HR/FB rate he has this year. Just like Edwin Jackson cannot sustain a 3% HR rate, neither can Soto, given that it is nearly 5 times lower this year than last. His spike in infield fly balls will eventually turn into deep fly balls, prefereably over the fence, and Soto will regain his status as a top 5 offensive catchers in baseball.
"And that is why I am better than everyone in the world. The motherfucking end"
Some people want to blame the WBC. Firstly, Soto never had a full spring training, due to his obligation to the Puerto Rican national team, where he was benched most of the time for Ivan Rodriguez. Secondly, when he did arive to the Cubs, he had a severe shoulder injuriy that sidelined him for another 3 weeks. Whether the injury was due to the WBC is debateable, but surely is partly responsible to the slow start Soto has had behind the plate. Other people will blame his weight on teh struggles. Soto is a pretty heafty individual and this year appears to be even heavier. Finally, the only other explination is that Soto had a fluke year last year, and is actually an older prospect who is only average offensively.
However, looking at Soto's advanced statistics on fangraphs.com, I see no reason that Soto shouldn't rebound to his 2008 form and have another productive offensive season. Nearly all of Soto's stats are identicle to last year, except for the extremely low batting average and slugging percentage. One of the main reasons to explain this the great disparity between the BABIP from this year and last. Last year it was .338, much higher than major league average, but sustainable due to his 20% line drive percentage. This year the value has dropped to a meager .266 despite an equivalent 20% line drive percentage. Clearly Soto has been getting quite unlucky in terms of batting average, however it still does not explain the decreased slugging percentage which sits at .066, which is lower than David Eckstein for reference. The problem is the 3% HR/FB rate he has this year. Just like Edwin Jackson cannot sustain a 3% HR rate, neither can Soto, given that it is nearly 5 times lower this year than last. His spike in infield fly balls will eventually turn into deep fly balls, prefereably over the fence, and Soto will regain his status as a top 5 offensive catchers in baseball.
"And that is why I am better than everyone in the world. The motherfucking end"
