Nooooooooooo!

Anyone who reads this blog knows I like Jake Fox...a lot. Sadly, the Cubs just traded the cost-controlled slugging 1B, who could have replaced Derrek Lee's $13 million salary after this season, in addition to that piece of shit Aaron Miles and $1 million cash for A's reliever Jeff Gray and two random prospects. On the plus side, Gray does not walk batters, making him a welcome addition to the Cubs walk-happy bullpen. On the downside, however, Jake Fox had more value to the Cubs than a cost-controlled reliever (see the first link on this page).

To make matters worse, the Cubs are trying to sign Vincente Padilla. Just great. Nothing like replacing Rich Harden with Vincente Padilla, right? When will the Cubs fire Jim Hendry?? When??

Sigh...at least there's always 2011...

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Update:

Here are the scouting reports on the players the Cubs received from Oakland:

• RP Jeff Gray, the centerpiece of the deal, has superb control and efficiency, but average strikeout potential. Gray seems to have a lot of potential as a reliever and has 31 IP of major league experience.
  
• OF Matt Spencer has a high power ceiling and average power, but below average plate discipline and a high tendency to strike out. Spencer spent most of 2009 playing AA ball.
  
• SP Ronny Morla has good stuff and high strikeout potential with above average control, but he is somewhat hittable (barley below average efficiency rating). Morla has not even played above A ball.

Jake Fox: Trade Chip or Cheap 1B of the Future?

Jake Fox had a successful "debut" in 2009 (Fox had previously accumulated 15 MLB PA's with the Cubs in 2007). Though he certainly faded down the stretch, Fox none the less put up an above average .779 OPS with a quality .208 ISO in 241 PA's with the Cubs in 2009. Between AAA and the majors last season, Fox jacked a ridiculous 28 HRs in under 450 PAs. His .433 ISO was a full 79 points ahead of the second highest ISO in the Pacific League amongst hitters with 150+ PAs. In short, Fox had his "breakout season." However, like most Cubs prospects, Jake Fox is old; he turns 28 next year. Furthermore, his lack of defense makes him a difficult guy to play on the diamond. 1B and 3B are blocked by A-Ram and D-Lee, while the corners in the outfielder are manned by Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano. If Milton Bradley isn't traded (which he shouldn't be because he was bit by a lot of bad luck last season and he is poor enough a player on or off the field to be worth the $15M salary dump it would require to move him), that leaves no room for Fox besides the bench. Thus the question beckons: is Jake a trade chip at the "peak" of his value or does he have a valuable role in the future of the team?

Unlike the "breakout" performance of Micah Hoffpauir, who overperformed in 2008, Jake Fox underperformed in 2009. Despite a lackluster walk rate (6.1% in 2009, 9.1% MLB average) and eyebrow raising .311 OBP, there are plenty of reasons to trust in Jake Fox. The .285 BABIP and .319 xBABIP/.302 MLB avg BABIP disparity shows that Jake Fox, who posted a .332 wOBA in 2009, has some room to improve in 2010. As someone who posts league average strikeout rates, has improving walk rates in the minors, and has posted an ISO above .250 each season in the minors since being promoted to AAA in 2007, Bill James is profiling Jake Fox as a .284/.339/.546 (.885 OPS) hitter next season. The average MLB first baseman, by contrast, hit .277/.362/.483 (.845 OPS) in 2009.

With Derek Lee, who is in the final year of his contract, turning 35 and getting paid $13M next season, Jake Fox could provide the Cubs with the kind of payroll flexibility they would need to stay competitive in 2011 and 2012. With the burdensome contracts of Soriano, Big Z, Fukudome and Milton Bradley guaranteed and Aramis Ramirez's $16M 2012 option on the books, the Cubs do not have much breathing room in terms of adding "the necessary guys." A guy like Jake Fox, who can competently replace Derek Lee's offense in 2011 and 2012 (assuming he doesn't get slapped with super two status), would give the Cubs $13 to spend on gapping holes (aka, relief pitching). Rather than trading away guys for prospects and hoping the Cubs can build as good of a team as they currently have while rebuilding for the future, the Cubs have the potential to stay strong for the next few years.

Quality players who do not cost a lot are slim pickings for the Cubs, who haven't exactly had the best of drafts since 2001. Fox is a breath of fresh air. Especially since power is overpriced.

Is Garrett Jones the next big thing?

No, no he is not. However, his performance this year is something that needs further discussion.

Anyone who has missed the tremendous season Jones is having, which you probably have considering he plays for the Pirates. After picking him up from the Twins mid-season, he has racket up 19 home runs and a .420 wOBA in just 250 at-bats. Those numbers would put him in the same breath as Chase Utley. Is Garrett Jones the next Chase Utley?

Jones is a 28 year old rookie, a la Jake Fox, and has had a successful minor league career with a career .200 iso despite the .762 OPS, which DME defines as Matt Kemp power. He is average or below in walk rate, defense, speed, and pitch recognition. His 26% HR/FB rate would put him second in the league behind Reynolds, somehow I doubt a career minor leaguer has the second best power stroke in baseball.

For all you over ambitious fantasy players out there, dont go drafting Garrett Jones next year thinking he is the next big thing. He is nothing more than this year's Matt Joyce, and the Pirates should probably unload him to the Rays for Edwin Jackson before next season. Oh, wait, Jackson is no longer on the Rays? My bad

Who is in Left for the Cubs?

A few days ago on Tuesday September 1st, 2009 I wrote an article called Jake Fox. VS. Alfonso Soriano. In the article I wondered why Lou was still playing Alfonso Soriano who was obviously injured and not performing. Now Lou has shut down Alfonso Soriano for the time being. In his place for the last two games has been Bobby Scales. I want to know why Jake Fox who has been tearing the cover off of the ball isn’t playing. Jake Fox can hit so the Cubs should play him as much as possible for the rest of this season. I stated my reasons in the other post, but there is no reason to play a 32 year old journeymen infielder. The Cubs need to play the young guys to see what they have because this season is over. The Cubs have a month left of the season and should use it to prepare for next season. Can anyone shed some light on this for me?

Jake Fox. VS. Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano was the opening day left fielder for the Chicago Cubs. He has played a lot even though he has been struggling all season. Soriano is one of the streakiest hitters in the league so everyone including Lou says to leave him in the lineup so when he goes on his amazing hot streaks which we have seen in the past he will carry the Cubs. The problem is Soriano has only had one of those streaks this season. That was for the month of July where he batted .345 with a .409 on base percentage and a 583 slugging percentage. He had 5 homeruns and 3 doubles along with 16 RBI’s. Besides for July he has only batted over 200 for two months with starting the season in April batting .284. How can we actually play someone every day who batted .216 in May, then .198 in June, and .185 for the month of August? Soriano has played in 115 games this season. The Cubs have played 130 games. Soriano has the second highest at-bats of all Cubs behind Ryan Theriot with 470.

Soriano has not played the last few days because he has been bothered by some soreness in his knee. This has made it hard for him to run, especially in the outfield. It was hard for most Cubs fans to notice, because it didn’t look much different than the Soriano were used to seeing out there defensively in left field. The other day Soriano had a MRI on his knee and Lou said it was good news. He would get a cortisone shot, and be back in a few days. I want to know why were rushing him back to play when he hasn’t been good all season. Let him rest and let some younger guys play in left to see what they can do.

One player that comes to mind who could start in left field in place of Alfonso Soriano is Jake Fox. Jake Fox has shown in a small sample of at-bats that he can hit the ball. The Cubs are 10.5 games behind St. Louis in the division and have several teams in front of them in the wild card. They need to play Fox to see what they have. The Cubs need to figure out if he is the real deal, or if he will turn out like Mike Fontenot and Micah Hoffpauir if he plays more. The Cubs don’t have a place to play Jake Fox next year with Bradley and Soriano in the outfield corners and Lee at first signed through the 2010 season. The Cubs could try to shop Jake Fox this off-season and trade him for some good relievers or young prospects, but they won’t get much in return for him now because he hasn’t done much at the big league level and he isn’t a top prospect. So play Jake Fox so we can see what we have.

Cubs emergency catcher for 2009

Every team has an emergency catcher in case something happens to the other two. There can be many scenarios on why a team may have to use an emergency catcher. If one catcher starts and the second one comes into the game to pinch hit or on a double switch and something happens to them like an injury, then a team may have to use an emergency catcher. Rarely does a team actually have to use an emergency catcher. Most teams may not make it clear who the emergency catcher is and will deal with the issue if it does happen. For some reason the Cubs have a history of making it clear who that is. In the past the Cubs emergency catchers were Matt Murton, Ramon Martinez, Jose Macias, and I am probably forgetting a few. This year it is obvious that Jake Fox is the Cubs emergency catcher. The Cubs drafted him as a catcher and he played that position in the Cubs organization until three years ago when Lou came to the Cubs and saw him play in spring training. He was very impressed by Fox’s bat, but not is defense so he moved him. The Cubs starting catcher Geovany Soto is injured and day to day. The backup Hill is not that good offensively so the Cubs may start Fox at Catcher to get his bat in the lineup. If Fox is not terrible behind the plate I say they should play him more at catcher until Soto is healthy and then have him play there occasionally to give Soto a break.

Who is the White Sox emergency Catcher?

Cubs approach the DH

The Chicago Cubs have had two interleague series so far. One with the White Sox and one with the Cleveland Indians. Both of these series have been at home. Next week, starting on Tuesday they have two interleague series on the road at American League parks. This means the Cubs will have to use the DH. I am personally not a big fan of the DH because it takes away some of the strategy to the game. There is one benefit to it though. That is more playing time for two of the Cubs youngster’s who are more offensive minded players and aren’t great defensive players. This is Micah Hoffpauir and Jake Fox.

Micah Hoffpauir is first basemen by trait and is pretty good defensively at first base. He is okay in the outfield, but doesn’t have great speed or a good arm, but he is adequate. Jake Fox came up as a catcher, but they quickly learned he can’t catch, and doesn’t have a position in the National League. He can play first base, corner outfield, and some third base recently, but isn’t that good defensively at any position. When he shows everyone that he can hit the Cubs can trade him to an American league team to DH.

Lou has said he likes Fox and Hoffpauir bat so he will make sure they get more time playing time during interleague play where the DH is in effect. He says they may not DH, but play first or the outfield so the regulars can get a little break. Fox has been good as a pinch hitter, but has gone hitless in his two starts this season. His most recent start was Friday at third base, where he is a defensive liability, but Lou will continue to start him at third against left handed pitchers. Today Hoffpauir had a pinch hit two run homerun. Hopefully both of them will seize the moment when they get more playing time. I like both players and think they both can hit and be every day hitter’s when given the opportunity.