Common Misconceptions, Part II

You can read my Part One above

Myth: Steve Bartman cost the Chicago Cubs the 2003 World Series title
Fact: Cubs errors, costly pitching, and the New York Yankees cost the Cubs the championship and pennant, not Bartman

Back Story: For all of you who think Bartman was a dick and cost the Cubs the World Series then you're a hypocrite. If you were at that game and you saw that fly ball comes towards you, you would have also reached out and would have tried to catch that ball coming towards you.

This saga has a whole lot of 1986 World Series Bill Buckner to it. All we remember is the one incident that we think was the sole reason for the team's downfall, but we forget what really happened that fateful night.

Like in the '86 World Series, the Bartman incident was Game Six. The outcome of the game was independent on who would win the series (sort of). The Cubs were winning the series 3-2 versus the Florida Marlins in the NLCS and they now had five more outs to win a trip to the World Series. Let's now go back and revisit that night. The Cubs are up 3-0 off of a brilliant performance by (the then extremely healthy) Mark Prior.

Juan Pierre is on second base and Luis Castillo hits the infamous fly ball which Steve Bartman catches. However, the Castillo at bat kept going. Because Steve Bartman caught the ball, all technically Castillo hit was a foul ball. But Cubs left fielder Moises Alou acts like a three year old and starts throwing a temper tantrum on the field. He becomes irate at Bartman because he thought he could have caught the ball that Bartman caught (Alou later admitted Castillo's fly ball out out of his reach). If Alou had just gone about his business and not brought attention to the situation then we would not be talking about this event today.

But Alou throws a hissy fit and everyone is now talking about this catch. But the score is still 3-0 and so far Prior has not given up any runs. Castillo eventually draws a walk and (due to a WP thrown in the Castillo at bat) there are runners on the corners. Pudge then hits a single making the score 3-1. Right now there are runners at second and third, one out still, and Miguel Cabrera comes to the plate.

Here is where the eighth innings stops becoming Bartman's fault and starts becoming Mark Prior's, manager Dusty Baker's, and Alex Gonzalez's fault. Because Dusty Baker is such a shit manager, he still leaves Prior in the game. A career of leaving Prior in the game too long has made Prior what he is today. Even if you believe the Bartman catch somehow rattled Prior then Baker should have pulled Prior from the game. But if you believe like I do and that Prior is a professional and was so dominant at this point in time then he should have gotten out of the inning another way.

No matter, Prior stays in the game to pitch to Cabrera. Prior did what the greats do and induced a ground ball to infielder Alex Gonzalez. What Gonzalez should have done (and easily could have done) was turned a double play so the Cubs would have gotten out of the inning up by two runs. What Gonzalez did do was bobble and misplay the ball causing Miggy to be safe at first and causing the bases to be loaded.

Then pre-wrist injury Derrek Lee comes to the plate and hits a double to tie the game. The game is not over and the Cubs still have a shot to win the game. However, the Marlins go on to score a whopping eight runs that inning and win the game 8-3.

The Marlins eventually defeated the Chicago Cubs in seven and then went on to face the New York Yankees in the World Series and became World Champs in 2003.

I was in high school in the northern suburbs of Illinois and all my friends were Cubs fans. To their credit, the vast majority of them blamed Gonzalez more than Bartman, but they were in the small minority. All you had to do was listen to five seconds of Chicago sports talk radio to hear how livid Cubs fan were at the nerdy, headphones-guy fan.

What Cubs fans and baseball fans alike seem to forgot, was that the Bartman incident was only Game Six. If the Cubs had gone out and won Game 7 then this incident would have barely been a blip on baseball history's radar. Cubs fans also forgot that Mark Prior could have gotten Luis Castillo out instead of walking him. (I mean, this is Luis Castillo we're talking about here!). Now let's say the Cubs did win in either Game Six or Game Seven, they still had to defeat the New York Yankees to become champions and there was no guarantee that would have happened.

So Cubs fans, you can blame Bartman all you want, but what you should be doing is blaming Alez Gonzalez or Dusty Baker or Mark Prior.

One last note before I move on: Let's say Bartman doesn't catch that ball. Let's say no fans reaches out to try and grab that Catillo fly ball. You wanna know what would have happened? The same thing that did happen. The ball would have been a foul ball, not been caught by Alou and Prior would still have to work to get Castillo out.

Myth: "Love Song" by Sara Bereilles was written about a former lover / significant other
Fact: The song was written to spite her record company who told her she had to write a love song to put on her record.

Back Story: "I'm not going to write you a love song / 'cause you asked for it / 'cause you need one, you see / I'm not going to write you a love song / cause you tell me it's / make or break in this"

This song makes a whole lot more sense now that you know the true meaning of it, doesn't it?

When you first listen to this song you don't really pay attention to the words. It's light, it's uplifting, it's catchy, it's bubbly, and it's got a chorus you can sing to. And then you start learning the exact words of the chorus without really paying attention to the rest of the song and you think to yourself, "Wow, this chick really must have been pissed at her old man to write this song." I mean, the only words you really know are "I'm not going to write you a love song" and you think she means she is not going to write a love song to her significant other. But you would be wrong.

According to wikipedia (the most credible source, right?):

Sara Bareilles was inspired to write "Love Song" after failing to produce successful hits, and one critic said that she needed to write "a marketable love song". Bareilles has stated that statement gave her the drive and anger necessary to write "Love Song", proving that she could indeed write a hit, and that she had no double standards.

I promise you, listen closely to the words again and you will see that wikipedia and myself are right.



Myth: Taking steroids means you will automatically hit 50+ home runs
Fact: All steroids does is help you increase muscle mass

Back Story: People who think that just because you stick a needle in your ass full of PED's that you will automatically hit home runs at record setting paces. Those people are retarded. I could start taking steroids or HGH right now and all that will make me do is become fatter than I already am. You still need to work out along with taking steroids if you want to actually increase your muscle mass.

Even if you do work out (like all baseball players do) and build muscle in places where no muscle should be, you still need to have talent in order to hit dingers. Carrot Top and Dr. Dre used steroids to help them become the buff fellas you see today, but you put them in the batter's box right now and all they will do is strike out faster than Adam Dunn.

People seem to forget that even if you are taking steroids you still need to work at your craft like every other baseball player. No steroids will make up for the fact that you have a giant hole in your swing or the fact you have a bad batter's eye.

I will admit that once you make contact with a ball with the extra muscle mass you have obtained from PED's then the magic elixir you have squirted into your veins makes that ball travel farther. However, you still need to have been really good at baseball beforehand in order to put up the numbers that Palmeiro, Bonds, Sosa, and McGwuire did.

Lastly, pitchers were also juicing during the steroids era. I would like to know the true effect of a 'roided pitcher facing a 'roided batter if there truly are effects favoring one side or another. If Clemons faced Bonds, does that extra few miles an hour on Clemons pitches have any effect on Bonds' faster bat swing? I truly don't know, but if you claim otherwise then you're just talking out of your ass.

Myth: Lance Armstrong did not take steroids
Fact: Lance Armstrong won all those Tour De France's because he was on steroids.

Back Story: Everyone bike racing in Armstrong's era was on steroids.

Myth: The Beatles are your favorite band
Fact: Nobody's favorite band is The Beatles

Back Story: "The Beatles are the greatest band ever but you're a liar if you say that they are your favorite" -Matt Kaplan-

Myth: Wins, ERA, and Batting Average are good metrics to determine how good a baseball player is.
Fact: They are awful, outdated, archaic metrics and should be used for fantasy purposes only

Back Story: I am not going to spend a whole lot of time on this because this is pretty obvious. Just go to fangraphs.com, thehardballtimes.com, or read anything baseball related on this site and you know how dumb these metrics truly are. I've seen a pitcher pitch go 7 IP, 0 ER and take the loss because the score was (and was when he left the game) 1-0 and the run was unearned instead of earned. Wins and loses are independent on your talent and more dependent on how good your team's offense and defense is. ERA and batting average are based largely on luck rather than how good a baseball player is. Either way, if you want to truly measure how good a baseball player is, then you can not do so by using the statistics on ESPN's MLB page.

I think old school baseball guys are finally coming around to see the light side of the force. In 2010, Felix Hernandez only won 13 games and lost 12. In 2009, Zach Grienke won 16 games and Tim Lincecum won 15. The one thing these three pitchers have in common: they all won and deserved to win their Cy Young and did so without winning the most number of games in their respected league. The notion used to be you have to win at least 20 games in order to win the Cy Young but I believe now that sabermetrics are becoming more prevalent (and the fact nobody wins 20 games anymore) and even the oldest of old school guys are coming off of their old way of thinking, sabermetrics will rule the world. That, and my eye.

The 2011 DUI All-Stars

The following, as if he read my mine, comes courtesy of a friend named "Happy."

These players might not hit over .240, but they shouldn't have a problem hitting .240 on a breathalyzer. Ladies & Gentlemen, your 2011 DUI ALL-STARS (a * indicates that the player received a DUI in 2011):

1. Coco Crisp* (OF, projected BAC of .210): Stellar defense led prosecution to drop all charges.
2. Edgar Sangeria (SS, .200): post-game celebrations with Dusty Baker could lead to trouble
3. Miguel Cabrera* (1B, .240): perennial contender for the Triple Crown Royal
4. Shin-Soo Choo* (OF, .200): what else is there to do in the post-LeBron wasteland?
   
5. Austin Kearns* (OF, .215)
   
6. Ryan Doumit (C): recently apprehended for operating a flying saucer while using a cellular phone.
   
7. Adam Kennedy* (2b, .110): Regrettably, he realized that plowing through pitchers of MGD wasn't the same as plowing through major league pitchers.
8. Brandon Inge (3B, .250): Take the 'randon' out of "Brandon Inge drinking"
9. Derek Lowe* (SP, .195

Bench: Elijah Dukes (OF, projected BAC of .230): went from batting fifth to pleading the fifth; high slugging percentage didn't transfer from the bedroom to the field. Was also caught stealing second base from Dick's sporting goods.

The team, of course, is managed by Tony "don't you know who I am" LaRussa.

Fantasy Elijah Dukes: Aaron Harang

For those of you new to GOI, there's a running gag here that a fantasy player who I claim is Elijah Dukes is essentially just my fantasy sleeper. True, in recent years, players who I have deemed to be my Elijah Dukes have not panned out. But it's probably fitting considering the year I claimed Elijah Dukes as my sleeper was the same year I paid 20 bucks for Baseball Prospectus which happened to coincide with BP's worst year ever for predicting fantasy players. But I digress.

Every year, for both fantasy football and fantasy baseball, I like to tout one player who you can get for a dollar in your auction draft, last round in your snake draft, or even better a player you can get in free agency. I've come to deem my Elijah Dukes player as stretch guys anyways so it's probably no surprise they tend to not work out. These are not guys who I think will be good, but flier guys who I think you should get if you have the roster room for them.

For the 2011 fantasy baseball season (and as the title obviously suggests) my Elijah Dukes is Aaron Harang.

If Harang doesn't work out, then Oh Well. You didn't pay that much to get him so it really was no skin off of your back. And if Harang does play well I'll be more than happy to play the reverse side of the coin and say it was a lucky call. I won't be, pardon my French, a little bitch and not take the blame if Harang doesn't pan out but turn around and call it my greatest call ever if he does.

The reason I like Harang is two-fold: The first (and main reason) is that Harang is now playing in the friendliest pitchers park in PETCO (San Diego) and the second is that he's not playing for Dusty Baker anymore.

Let me address my second point first: Aaron Harang is not playing for Dusty Baker anymore. Although I am not a Chicago Cubs fan, I saw first hand how Dusty destroys pitchers. Kerry Wood has revamped his career as a reliever (especially here in Chicago) but you still can't utter the words "Kerry Wood" or "Mark Prior" in the Chicagoland area without Cubs fans cringing knowing what potential Baker destroyed in these two promising kids.

I remember my sophomore year in college sitting around in my R.A.'s dorm room while DME and I were discussing baseball. The year was 2007 and Dusty Baker had just recently been hired by the Cincinnati Reds. Harang had just come off of a season where he went 16-11 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a 8.3 K/9. DME was raving about Harang for the upcoming season while he was mock drafting and not paying attention to the conversation in the room and every five minutes our R.A. would yell at DME to shut up about fantasy baseball. I retorted back to DME that while I loved Harang's promise I would be staying away from Harang (and all Reds pitchers) because of the Dusty Baker signing. DME responded that Harang was a workhorse and Dusty wouldn't affect him and that Harang would be good for the upcoming season.

Well, DME was half right.

Harang was amazing in the upcoming season where he was 4th in NL Cy Young voting with a 16-6 record, 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 all in 231.2 innings pitched. The reason I say DME was half right was because Dusty Baker did ruin Harang, but I was one year too early getting off the Aaron Harang bandwagon.

Over the next four seasons, Harang's innings pitched dropped from 231.2 in '07 to 184.1, 162.1, and 111.2 respectively. Harang's ERA ballooned over the same time frame from 3.73 to 4.78 to 4.21 to a career low last year with 5.32. Harang's WHIP also blew up going from 1.14 in 2007 to 1.38, 1.41, and 1.59 respectively the past few seasons. Needless to say Harang's HR/9 grew, his K/9 dropped as well as his K/BB ratio.

Now certainly there are a myriad of factors that could contribute to those poor numbers. But I blame Dusty Baker. Whether you think that opinion is rational or not is up to you, but not only does Dusty Baker have a history of ruining pitchers, I've seen Dusty force Harang into throwing too many pitches on too little days rest.

In fact, when I did a Google search of "Aaron Harang Dusty Baker" not only did I find instances where Baker threw Harang out after a rain delay and after Harang admitted to having dead arm, but I found an article written last year by DME entitled "Aldrois Chapman, Meet Dusty Baker" where DME analyzed Reds pitchers by their Pitcher Abuse Points and you can see how high Harang ranks among PAP. In fact, in that very same article, DME links to another article where he claims Dusty Baker broke Harang on May 22, 2008. DME writes:

As an owner of Harang last year, Baker's impact was extremely frustrating. As fangraphs notes, Baker used Harang pretty heavily early on, but he held together pretty well. That is until May, however, when Baker found a very creative way to break him. After having thrown 103 pitches through 5.1 innings on May 22, Baker called upon Harang to throw another 63 across four innings just three days later. Four days after that, Baker started Harang on four days rest, allowing him to throw 73 more pitches across four more innings of work.

Part of the reason that I am not all in on Harang is because it is entirely possible Dusty broke Harang for good. Kerry Wood came back but he had to do it as a reliever. Shoulda-beens Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt never came back. The most recent pitcher Dusty broke was Edison Volquez who is still on-and-off with injuries (Although admittedly I think Volquez' injuries would have happened with any manager). However, Harang is only 32. It's a tad old for my liking but certainly within the range of a comeback year. Call it a gut feeling, but I like Harang pitching outside the control of Dusty Baker.

The main reason I like Harang though is because he's pitching in PETCO park.

I would love to do an analysis (DME-style) where I tell you what Harang's WHIP, K/9 and ERA will be when factoring in Padres defense and park factors and such; however, I neither have the intellectual capacity to do such an in-depth analysis nor set constants to do such research.

For starters, I don't know where to begin with Harang. Ideally, one would use some baseline numbers before factoring in defense and park, but I don't know what Harang's are. I would like to use his 2006 and 2007 season numbers but I'm also an idealist. I truly don't know if Dusty full out broke Harang or Harang will revert back to form with new scenery. For the sake of my own personal fantasy team I'm taking the latter, but I just don't know. Secondly, the additions of Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson, and Jason Bartlett makes predicting San Diego's team UZR and USR/150 just a flat out guess. Thirdly, maybe someone can help me with this, but I just don't know how to translate PETCO's park effects to a pitcher's fantasy numbers.

But I will give you evidence (outside of your common knowledge about PETCO) to show just how good the park can have on fantasy pitchers. While there will always be a spot in my heart for Jon Garland (and a spot in my closet because I own a #20 shirt) as a White Sox fan, he truly is not a good pitcher. Garland has a career ERA of 4.32, 4.76 K/9, and a FIP of 4.47. Despite that, Garland, while calling San Diego home last year, had an ERA of 3.47 and a 6.12 K/9 with 14 wins.

I see no reason (if Harang is fully healthy and we use Harang's 2005-2007 average ERA) that Harang can't post a 3.4-3.5 ERA with a 8+ K/9 if he pitches for an entire season in a Padres uniform. Even if Harang performs like Clayton Richard did in 2010, we're still looking at 2007 Harang numbers.

Hopefully, in my long winded rant, I have convinced you to take a flier on Harang, or at the very least, if you have a guy go on the DL that you pick up Harang to fill a roster spot. At the minimum I hope you draft Harang in an NL-only league. If I have convinced you of that then I will have considered my job done a successful one.

A Quick Reminder Of Why I Hate Dusty Baker

Remember Kerry Wood and Mark Prior? Imagine what the Cubs franchise would look like if they never met Dusty Baker.

Look at Mark Prior's 2003 game log, for example. Over each of Prior's last seven starts, Dusty kept him in for 110+ pitches. In fact, in Prior's final two starts, Baker had Prior pitch over 130 pitches. And of course, we know what Dusty did with Prior in the playoffs. Such is criminal to do to any pitcher's arm, especially after a season's worth of mileage.

So too, was the fate of Kerry Wood. Baker had him pitched 114+ plus pitches in each of his final six outings (120+ in his final two).

Baker already broke Aaron Harang (details in the middle of the post). Good luck Alroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Homer Bailey and friends.

What The Hell Aaron Harang!

My philosophy this year was to stay away from any Cincinnati Reds player in fantasy baseball because I don't need to get sucked in to the black hole vortex that is Dusty Baker. Sure guys like Joey Votto are great and worth their draft pick, but it's just one of those personal philosophies of mine. And I also made sure to stay the ch-ell away from Derek Zoolander, er I mean any Reds pitcher. With Baker's amazing track record for breaking pitchers, I made sure to not draft any of them. And I think that's worked out somewhat well for me. We turn now to exhibit A: Aaron Harang.

I'm sure by now, except for maybe deep NL only leagues, maybe, Aaron Harang has been dropped in your league. This year, in 21 2/3 IP, Harang only has 15 K (6.23 K/9) to go along with 6 BB (2.49 BB/9, 2.50 K/BB), an 8.31 ERA to go along with his 6.36 FIP and 4.40 xFIP, and a 1.62 WHIP and no wins. Awful, awful numbers and I can see why people are jumping off the Harang bangwagon like it just hit an iceberg. I can hear the violins playing in the background.

However, I do see signs of hope, and if you can stash Harang on your bench or feel like your pitching depth is weak, here is why you should pick him up.

1) LOB % This is a representation of how many guys a pitcher leaves on base who do not come around to score. So far, Harang's LOB% is a measly 52.5%. That means a little under of half of the base runners Harang puts on comes around to score. To put that 52.5% into perspective- Harang has a career 73% LOB. Harang is fourth to last out of every single starter in LOB. I just don't see this low rate continuing.


2) HR/FB% About 11.5% of all fly balls a batter hits/ a pitcher gives up goes for home runs. This year, 23.1% of all of Harang's fly balls are leaving the y-ah-d. That's essentially double the amount of the average pitcher. Harang already has given up 6 HR. Sure Harang has always given up his share of home runs in the past (1.77 and 1.33 HR/9 respectively in the past two years) but they've never been close to the 2.49 HR/9 that Harang has this year.

This rate would concern me even more if Harang was becoming more of a fly ball pitcher. But that isn't the case. In fact, within Harang's four starts this year, he's burning worms and giving up less fly balls at the best rates he has ever in his career (yes, take this with a grain of salt that it's only four games- but still)

3) Game of Averages Sure sports are a game of inches, but baseball is a game of averages. Hitters go through slumps and then on hot streaks a few weeks later. A guy may hit .200 one week and then .400 the week after, but at the end of the year, he will still have that .300 batting average. I believe the same to be true for pitchers, especially for Harang.

Right now, Harang has given up 20 ER in about 21 IP. Harang has a career ERA of 4.31. In order for Harang to get to that level, Harang will have to pitch 21 scoreless innings (about). Sure, averages don't work out so neatly that every four games you pitch badly and the next four you pitch amazing, but no way in hell Harang pitches so badly that he can't drop is ERA to at least 4.50. Sure Harang has not had the best ERA, but to even drop to his normal crappy levels means some good games pitched ahead.

Moral of the story, if you can get Harang for cheap, go get him

Dusty Baker Update: Yonder Alonso

We at Game Of Inches have done our share of Dusty Baker hating. Some may say we are picking on him, but he's really just picking on himself. When he's not to busy devising ways to break pitchers and telling his players to stop walking, he's deviously plotting other ways to play baseball backwards. Such ways include playing a guy with a DH's body and surgically repaired right hand, who has never played catcher ever in his life, at catcher. No really. I'm actually not kidding. Here is what Baker said at a press conference yesterday:

"We've entertained a few things, even the possibility of putting Alonso behind the plate. He's built more like a catcher than he is anything. Imagine a left-handed, power-hitting catcher. A lot of that depends on our Minor League development people that spend time with the kids and the time training them."

A lot of it also depends on whether or not that player has ever played catcher, a physically demanding position, before. Alonso has not. It's not like they moved Mike Piazza BEHIND the plate...

And so is born the tag to monitor Dusty Baker's persistent gallimaufry.

Is Adam Dunn Underrated?

Is Adam Dunn underrated? Yes, Adam Dunn strikes out a lot (almost 1/3 of the time), plays poor defense, makes minimal contact with baseballs (his career contact rate is 71.5%; the MLB average was 80.5% last season) and has a career batting average just under .250. Still, Adam Dunn has a career OPS above .900. He's walked 913 times in 5417 career PAs (16.9% walk rate, .383 career OBP). Dunn's averaged 39.3 home runs per season (and hit exactly 40 like clockwork from 2005-2008). His .276 ISO over the past 3 seasons is the sixth best mark in the majors, while his 118 HRs over that span are two more than Pujols' 116 and his 339 BB's are second to no one.

And yet, Dunn struggled to find work last offseason when he became a free agent (he didn't officially sign with the Nationals until February 12). This should have come as no surprise to even the most casual Adam Dunn follower. Dusty Baker never appreciated his skill set and J.P. think he's a useless slacker. Heck, even Jason Varitek unintentionally took a shot at Big Donkey.

But it is not as though nobody except his mother likes him. Sabermetric-minded fellows, ranging from the casual and hilarious to the serious and boring (just kidding, I absolutely love THT) have defended Dunn from every jab taken at him. Even we at Game Of Inches have defended the Big Donkey in the past.

But is Adam Dunn underrated?

True, Adam Dunn is a great offensive player (career .384 wOBA), but he's also an equally atrocious fielder, a fact this is often glossed over (as it was in the introductory paragraph to this post). Winning baseball games, if boiled down to the most simplistic mathematical formula, is a differential between Runs Created and Runs Allowed. A run gained with a bat is equally as valuable as the run prevented with the glove.

It is with this maxim in mind that I point out the follow fact which probably eludes the casual Dunn fan: Adam Dunn has been a sub-3 WAR player since 2005. He's been a sub-2 WAR player in all of those seasons except 2007. Over the past two years, Dunn has cumulatively worth under 2.5 WAR. By contrast, B.J. Upton, Andy LaRoche, Miguel Tejada and even Paul Konerko were more valuable in 2009 than Dunn has been cumulatively over the past two seasons. Last season, despite creating 35.5 runs more than the average player with his bat, Dunn was a meager +1.2 WAR player thanks to the 36.3 runs his glove cost the Nationals. Omar Vizquel, who only played 62 games last year, was worth +1.2 WAR.

Yeah, Adam Dunn is that bad at fielding.

Fangraphs values Dunn's +1.2 WAR performances in 2008 and 2009 at just over $5 million in terms of free agency dollars. And yet, the world of baseball was shocked when Dunn was "only" able to sign a contract for 2-years, $20 million. Dunn was paid $8 million last season and is set to earn $12 million this season. Even if Dunn's fielding, which has been on the decline since 2004, is half as bad as it was this season, he will be, assuming that his offensive production remains steady, a +3ish WAR player. In terms of free agency dollars, a 3.0 WAR season would be worth approximately $13.5 million next season. If this is the case, then Dunn would have been "overpaid" by $1 million by the Nationals over the life of his contract -- not bad, essentially market value.

So I beckon the same question again: is Adam Dunn really underrated? Or is he just so underrated that he has become overrated (or at least adequately rated)? What is clear is that Adam Dunn belongs in the AL, playing DH (where players get a -17.5 positional adjustment to their batting line, half of Dunn's negative fielding impact).

__________________________

Valuable Post Script:

As a RF, Dunn's cumulative batting and fielding production gets a -7.5 positional adjustment (UZR measures all defense equally; Fangraphs accounts for differences in fielding difficulty between positions in WAR calculations thru positional adjustments). As a DH, Dunn would get a flat -17.5 positional adjustment and a zero fielding rating. In other words, as a DH, Dunn just get -17.5 runs subtracted from his batting line. As a RF (or LF, for that matter), Dunn gets -7.5 subtracted from his batting line in addition to his lackluster fielding. Thus Dunn, like anyone with a consistent -10 or worse fielding glove at RF/LF, belongs in a DH role.

I'm placing a "Quintessential Sabermetrics Argument" tag on this post because it underlines the unheralded importance of fielding.

Why Is Jonny Gomes Unemployed?

As, I've previously asserted, Jonny Gomes is sort of an Adam Dunn-lite. The only real difference between the two is the walk rate (Gomes is a career 9.9% walker, while Dunn's career walk rate is a majestic 16.9%; league average is under 9%). Of course, when you have a player who, like Dunn, makes contact with only 70% of his offerings (league average is around 80%) and strikes out a ton (32.2% career strike out rate), you probably want them to get on base by walking (or getting plunked) as much as possible because they probably aren't going to hit their way on (much to Dusty Baker's chagrin). Still, that hasn't kept Gomes from posting a league average .330 OBP through out his career. But we all know you don't hire Gomes for his walking abilities or his fielding talents. It's that sexy .230 career ISO that attracts, or should attract, major league teams. You know who also has a .230 career ISO? Chase Utley. You know who doesn't? Joe Mauer.

Now I'm not here to advocate that Jonny Gomes is going to light the world on fire for any team he plays for. That .274 ISO last season is probably going to come down and even though his K% has improved each of the last few seasons, Gomes is still going to strike out around 30% of the time and force teams to stomach a .250 BA and .330 OBP somewhere in the lineup. He's still going to hit a lot of extra base hits, however, and it's not like he's got the feet or body of a Molina brother. It beckons the question of what can we expect from Gomes in 2010?

Last season, Gomes hit .267/.338/.541 (.879 OPS) with 20 HRs and a .313 BABIP in half of a season of game play. According to THT's xBABIP calculator, Gomes' luck neutral BABIP (xBABIP) was a somewhat comparable .306. As a result, Gomes' xHit barely takes a hit, falling from 75 to 74. Even if we assume that lost hit was a home run, Gomes would have hit .263/.334/.527 (.861 OPS) in a luck-neutral environment in 2009.

So what does that say for 2010? It says that Gomes .373 wOBA was not entirely unreasonable and that even with a slight decline in power, a .350 wOBA is entirely plausible for Gomes. Gomes's fielding inabilities will likely counterbalance his offensive contributions, but when you account for other adjustments like positional (-7.5 runs) and replacement (+20 runs), you are left with a +1 or so WAR player. That would make Gomes a $3.5 to 4 million dollar player in terms of 2010 free agency dollars. CHONE seems to agree with me, claiming that Gomes is a +2 run bat and -6 run glove over 150 games. That's nothing special, but Gomes won't cost you much and it's an investment worth taking a risk on given Gomes' clear power upside.

Dusty Baker Flow Chart

Continuing this week's Dusty Baker theme, here is the greatest flowchart ever created by man (click to enlarge):



Reproduced with permission of Beyond The Boxscore.

The Onion Must Read Our Blog

Just a few days after I introduced Aldrois Chapman to Dusty Baker, parody paper The Onion decided to take their own take on the situation:

CINCINNATI—Within just a few minutes of Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman's arrival in the United States, Reds manager Dusty Baker had already overused and mangled the 21-year-old's arm beyond recognition, team sources reported Sunday. Baker, who has been accused of overtaxing young pitchers' arms in the past, reportedly greeted Chapman with a bucket of 250 baseballs and told him to "hurl them" as fast as he could, later encouraging the fastballer to "go nuts" with his pitching style. "He didn't even let me stretch out first," Chapman told reporters through an interpreter. "And when I started to wince from the pain and soreness, he just gave me a thumbs up, winked, and told me to keep throwing."

Gotta love The Onion.

Aldrois Chapman, Meet Dusty Baker

Dusty Baker, Reds pitchers and total/average Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) by season:

2009:
Aaron Harang (162.1 IP, 15th in total PAP, 16th in Avg. PAP)
Bronson Arroyo (220.1 IP, 18th in total PAP, 22nd in Avg. PAP)
Homer Bailey (113.1 IP, 40th in total PAP, 23rd in Avg. PAP)
Johnny Cueto (171.1 IP, 83rd in total PAP, 96th in Avg. PAP)
Micah Owings (119.2 IP, 167th in total PAP, 184th in Avg. PAP)
(out of a total 664 pitchers)
-Point of interest: The second most abused pitcher by game in baseball was Pedro Martinez (~3762 Avg. PAP). The most abused pitcher by game in baseball was Justin Verlander (~6283 Avg. PAP).

2008
Aaron Harang (184.1 IP, 19th in total PAP, 18th in Avg. PAP)
Bronson Arroyo (200 IP, 15th in total PAP, 19th in Avg. PAP)
Edinson Volquez (196 IP, 17th in total PAP, 18th in Avg. PAP, )
Johnny Cueto (174 IP, 27th in total PAP, 34th in Avg. PAP)
Josh Fogg (78.1 IP for the Reds, 189th in total PAP, 196th in Avg. PAP)
(out of a total 651 pitchers)

2007
Aaron Harang (231.2 IP, 5th in total PAP, 5th in Avg. PAP)
Bronson Arroyo (210.2 IP, 6th in total PAP, 6th in Avg. PAP)
Kyle Lohse (131.2 IP, 54th in total PAP, 60th in Avg. PAP)
Matt Belisle (177.2 IP, 83rd in total PAP, 98th in Avg. PAP)
Bobby Livingston (56.1 IP, 153rd in total PAP, 149th in Avg. PAP)
(out of a total 666 pitchers)

Pitchers who required major arm surgery/surgeries while or shortly after Dusty Baker was their manager:

Edinson Volquez
Kerry Wood
Mark Prior
Matt Clement
Jason Schmidt
Angel Guzman
Rob Nenn
Aaron Harang*

*Harang didn't require major surgery, but Dusty Baker broke him on May 22, 2008.

That's eight pitchers in sixteen years of management. Welcome to the Reds, Aldrois Chapman.

The Other Maddux

When you hear the name Maddux you think of Greg Maddux. Greg Maddux was an eight time all star, won the Cy Young four times, won eighteen gold gloves, won a World Series, and won at least 15 games for 17 straight seasons. He also won more games during the 1990s than any other pitcher. For these reasons he is considered one of the best pitchers of all time and arguable the best of my generation. Greg Maddux had great stuff through his career, especially during 1992 to 1995 where he won his four consecutive Cy Young’s and had a remarkable record of 75-29 with a 1.98 ERA, while allowing less than one runner per inning. Even though he has 3,371 career strikeouts and ranks 10th on the all time strikeout list, Greg Maddux wasn’t known as being a strikeout pitcher. He was known as the best in getting batters to pitch to contact. This way he was able to throw fewer pitches and go deeper in games. He is known for being a great finesse pitcher and possible the best control pitcher ever. This made him one of the most successful groundball pitchers ever. Maddux relied on his command, composure, and baseball IQ to get hitters out by mixing in strikeouts with his strategy to induce the ground out. Thus, when you hear the name Maddux, you automatically think about Greg Maddux the Hall of Fame pitcher!

Mike Maddux is the older brother of Greg Maddux. He was a mediocre journeyman pitcher who spent 15 years in the major leagues playing for 10 teams. He was mostly a relief pitcher who appeared in 578 career games. In his career he won 39 games and lost 37. That is compared to his brother Greg who won 355 and lost 227. Mike Maddux has pitched 861 innings with a career ERA of 4.05. Thus, he had the opposite career of his hall of fame brother. One thing they had in common was there baseball IQ and great understanding for pitching. After he retired from playing in 2000 he started his career as a pitching coach first for the Round Rock Express, a Double-A affiliate of the Houston Astros. In 2000 his Round Rock Express staff ranked 2nd in the Texas League with a 4.11 ERA. Also, in 2000 the same team won the league championship. With his success it wasn’t too long before he was noticed for being an excellent pitching coach and was given a chance in the major leagues.

In 2003 he started his professional career as a major league pitching coach with the Milwaukee Brewers. He was the Brewers pitching coach for six years from 2003 to 2008In 2008 the Brewers staff ranked 2nd in the National league with a 3.85 ERA. This was the lowest earned run average for the Milwaukee Brewers in 16 years since 1992.

During the 2008 season Manager Ed Yost was fired and the new manager, Ken Macha hired his own coaching staff. Mike Maddux was not made to feel welcome with the new coaching staff. The Brewers should have been more aggressive to retain him. Mike was offered a position by the Rangers which he accepted. This was a big mistake for the Milwaukee Brewers. A good organization knows that the coaches have a big impact on the team, and maybe even more than the actual manager. The Chicago Cubs know this. The Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild has been with the Cubs since 2002. He has seen the Cubs go through three managers in Don Baylor, Dusty Baker, and now Lou Piniella. Cub’s management knows how important a pitching coach is and they have told the three managers that Larry Rothschild is the pitching coach. Lou Piniella didn’t mind because he was the first manager who gave Larry Rothschild a chance as a pitching coach back with the Reds in 1990 after Larry Rothschild was his bullpen coach. Dusty Baker wanted to bring in one of his guys in Dick Pole as pitching coach, but the Cubs said no, so Dick Pole became the bench coach. Dick Pole is currently the pitching coach for the Reds managed by Dusty Baker. Other organizations have had the same pitching coaches for a while, but very few out last the manager like in Chicago.

On February 6, 2008 Nolan Ryan was hired as the president of the Texas Rangers. The Texas Rangers have made their hitting coach the highest paid hitting coach in the game, until this past off-season where The Chicago Cubs lured him away from The Rangers. This is because they know the importance of good coaches. One of the first things Nolan Ryan did was hire Mike Maddux as their pitching coach on November 3rd, 2008. He joined Jackie Moore (bench) and Dave Anderson (third base) as new coaches for the 2009 season. Maddux decided to go from Milwaukee to Texas because of prior connections in the Texas Organization. This is because Maddux started his pitching coach career as the pitching coach at Double-A Round Rock from 2000 to 2002. That Round Rock team was owned by Nolan Ryan who is now the Rangers President. That team was managed by Jackie Moore, the new Texas bench coach. Maddux inherited a Texas pitching staff that had a 5.37 ERA, worst in the major leagues.

For the 2008 season the Texas Rangers pitching was terrible. The prior year they ranked dead last in ERA for team ERA of 5.37. That is why Nolan Ryan hired Mike Maddux to try and turn the pitching around. They had 8 shutouts for 17th place in the majors, gave up the most earned runs at 860, ranked 6th in walks at 625 free passes, and ranked 27th in strikeouts with only 963 as a team. Opponents batted a league best .288 against them. The Texas Rangers pitching staff was bad for a number of years having the 24th ERA in 2007 at 4.75 ERA, 9th in giving up earned runs at 755, and second in walking batters at 668

In his first season with Texas, the Rangers pitching staff had an ERA of 4.38 which ranked 8th in the American league out of 14 teams and 18th in the major leagues out of 30 teams. They had 11 shutouts and 8 complete games. Their 11 shutouts ranked 8th in the majors and their 8 complete games ranked 7th in the Majors. They were 7th in saves with 45. Their Achilles heel was converting saves where they were 45 for 58. Thus, the Texas rangers had an average pitching staff, but were much improved from the previous seasons.

The Texas pitching staff has much to look forward to this year. They are anchored by the veteran in Kevin Millwood. Millwood came up with the Atlanta braves in 1997 behind Hall of famers Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine. He was overshadowed by those great pitchers, but showed a lot of promise and potential. Then he played for the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cleveland Indian in 2005. In 2005 for the Indians he had his best season since 1999. In 2005 he went 9-11 with a 2.86 ERA. Then he signed a big multiyear deal with the Texas rangers before the 2006 season. He struggled with the Rangers until this season under Mike Maddux. Maddux was able to get him back on track and be the ace he was supposed to be.

Then there is the magic he has performed with the other pitchers. This was Scott Feldman’s second year as a starter in the big leagues after pitching in their bullpen for a few years. Last season Feldman went 6-8 with a 5.39 ERA in 25 starts. This past season under the mentorship of Mike Maddux Feldman put his game together going 17-8. He had a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts logging a career high 189.2 innings only allowing 86 runs and 18 homeruns. He turned Feldman into a top of the rotation pitcher after barley being a 5th starter. Tommy Hunter pitched in 3 games for the 2008 season going 0-2 with a 16.36 ERA in 11 innings. He was able to make adjustments this season and went 9-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 19 starts. Under Maddux, Feldman and Hunter developed to being middle of the rotation pitchers with the potential of getting even better as they learn from one of the best pitching coaches.

This year he will have 2 new projects to make effective starters. Derek Holland made his debut this season going 8-13 with a 6.12 ERA in 21 starts in 33 games with a complete game shutout. He is a lefty with potential to grow next season. The 5th starter in the Rangers rotation will be Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy just needs to stay healthy because he has been injury plagued since his debut back in 2005 with the Chicago Whites Sox.

Thus, Mike Maddux may not be the Maddux everyone knows, but he has found his place as one of today’s elite pitching coaches.

Is Jonny Gomes Adam Dunn Lite?

[A NOTE FROM DME: Dear readers, I have to apologize. While creating a new post about Jonny Gomes earlier today, I inadvertently deleted the first two paragraphs of this post and published the changes. As a result, the introduction and most of the funny bits from this post are missing. I deeply apologize for the incoherent inconvenience that may result. What follows are the reminants of what I did not delete and the meat of the assertion that Jonny Gomes is similar to Adam Dunn in more ways than one...enjoy!]

...Dusty Baker hates clogging up the bases with walks.

Out goes Adam Dunn, in comes Jonny Gomes. While both strike out at comparable rates (Dunn strikes out 32.5% of the time, Gomes does it 30.9% of the time) and have prodigious power (Dunn has a .275 ISO, Gomes has a .272 ISO), Gomes walks almost exactly half as much as Adam Dunn (8.9% versus Dunn's monstrous 17.3% walk rate). Even though Adam Dunn doesn't exactly miss Cincinatti, I am fairly certain stat-head Reds fans who live in their mother's basements miss his robotic annual production of 100 BBs and 40 HRs plenty...even if he never tried very hard.

But let's not be too hard on Gomes here. A marginally better than league average walk rate is nothing to sneer at when paired with legitimate power (.230 career ISO) and defense skills that are only half as crappy as his predecessor. In fact, in less than half as many PA's as Adam Dunn this season, Jonny Gomes has been, when you combine and compare offensive and defensive production, exactly half as valuable as Adam Dunn this season. Extrapolated, that insinuates that two have the same production rate per game for their respective teams. Such is true for 2009, but is this a legitimate expectation for 2010 and going forward?

Jonny Gomes has no doubt been a disappointment since his breakout 2005 campaign. In the following season, his BA plummeted (as should be expected from a person who strikes out 1/3 of the time) from .282 to .216. Bolstered by an 11 HR April, Gomes' season ISO remained quite high for 2006, but declined from .253 to .216 (league average is around .155). Gomes "regression" was so drastic that he was given a largely limited role in the majors (and banished mostly to the minors) from mid-2006 through last the end of last season, when he was non-tendered by the Rays. The Reds gaves Gomes a minor league contract with a chance to prove he still had something less to contribute and he surely provided them with a lot of bang for their buck (.264/.339/.540, with 20 HR and 49 RBI over 298 PA).

So what is with the roller coaster ride that is Gomes? The answer is largely attributable to two factors. The first is what we would traditionally call "a giant hole in his swing" (0.36 BB/K, 70.7% career contact rate against an 80.5% league average). The second is an inability to hit right handed pitching (.225/.312/.448 line vs RHP, .271/.368/.513 line vs LHP, a sharp .121 point difference in OPS).

These two factors have led to violent oscillations in Gomes' BABIP by season. Here is Gomes BABIP since (and including) 2005: .360, .253, .332, .200, .307. His career BABIP is .296. Such inconsistency is expected from a guy who strikes out three times as much as he walks because it makes the player more prone to extended slumps and more exposed to BA fluxations in the red (logically, if a player Ks a lot and has a poor BABIP over a period of time, the BA is going to fall from ugly, but acceptable to sub-terrible >> check out Dan Uggla's numbers from the first half of this season). However, Jonny Gomes, despite all of the inconsistencies and headaches has made large improvements in his game each of the past four seasons that make the likelihood that he sustains his steps forward on the season more Russell Branyan like and less Corey Patterson like.

Since his full time debut in 2005, Jonny Gomes has cut down the major league strikeout rate a couple percentage points, while settling in at a walk rate within the 9% range each of the past three seasons. After taking some steps back with a K% of 36.2% in 2006, Gomes took a big step forward in 2008 and again in 2009, reducing the K rate to the 30-31% zone. These gains weren't noticed much in limited and sporadic action in 2008 because of a .200 BABIP. Guys like Gomes who strikeout a lot (and especially ones who do not have the best control of the strike zone) make terrible terrible back up players because they have no chance to get into any rhythm during the season, which only exacerbates their weaknesses. Gomes steps forward in strikeout rates has largely been attributable to a change in his approach at the plate. Although Gomes is taking about 5% more swings at pitches than he was as a full time player in Tampa, he is also making 5% more contact with those swings than he was before (largely because he is swinging at more pitches inside of the zone and, compared to the last two seasons, swinging less at pitches outside the zone). Gomes has also cut down the frequency with which he takes a hack at the first pitch he sees from a below average 60.2% rate in 2005 to a slightly above league average 58.7% rate in 2009.

Oh yeah, and you know that lefty-righty split? Gomes has a .871 OPS in 174 PAs against righties this season (.894 OPS vs lefties). Gomes' BABIP vs righties is a bit high at .321, but even if that settles down to the .300 range (which it most likely will, going forward), Gomes would be producing a quality .800+ OPS line against RHPs.

All of these signs show that Gomes' steps forward are not simply the byproduct of luck, but rather legitimate improvements in peripherals and approach. The results have been nothing short of gravy for the Reds. Fangraphs values Gomes' limited playing time production at $3.6 million (largely attributable to his +1 wins in offensive production); yet he's only getting paid somewhere between $600K and $800K. Whether or not Gomes continues his steps forward next season remains to be seen. At 29 years old, the ceiling is seemingly limited, but he's already proven that he possesses the necessary power for success and has shown himself increasingly adequate in the other aspects of the game over time (albeit, often hindered by the forces of bad luck). Gomes is under team control for two more years before he is eligible for free agency, so the Reds probably figure to tend Gomes' a contract this off season. It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers Gomes puts up in a full season playing LF.

What do you think Gomes 2010 looks like if given an opportunity as a full starter again? Will he be continue to be Adam Dunn with less walks for The Reds or will Gomes regress to his post-2005 numbers? Either way, this experiment shouldn't cost the Reds too much next season and they will probably, therefore, take the risk of starting him in LF in 2010 as they attempt to rebuild their tattered franchise.

The All African-American All-Star Team

In advance, I apologize to all those who read this post. It was not written with any intention of being offensive, so if it in any way comes out as such, let me just say that I am sorry now. That said, lets move on to the post...

For almost two years now, there has been a single question that the writers of the blog have floated around: are there very many (active) African American baseball players in the major leagues? A few years back, there was a PTI segment dedicated to the topic and Michael Wilbon concluded that there are so few African Americans in baseball because they are much to busy making millions in the NBA and NFL.

Is it true that there are "no" African American baseball players? Of course not; there are many great active black baseball players in the majors and minors, but the ratio of African American athletes in baseball to Basketball or Football is quite small. According to 2008 data collected by ESPN "among major leaguers...just 8.2 percent were black players, down from 8.4 percent in 2006 and the lowest level in at least two decades."

Since that segment, we have periodically tried to piece an all-black baseball team comprised of 100% black players. This means that players like Grady Sizemore and Derek Jeter do not technically qualify for the team. In fact, neither would Russell Martin if it were not for the fact that he is the only half-or-more black catcher in baseball since 2005 (Charles Johnson). For him, we make an exception (despite all the contempt that I continue to hold for his vastly overrated production). We denoted players like Jose Contreras and Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) as hispanic, although that classification may be incorrect. Again, apologies for any and all misconceptions.

In compiling this list, the one thing that struck me most was the sheer volume of black MLB players who were outfielders. Almost all of the guys who didn't make the cut for the 25 man roster were outfielders (like Gary Matthews Jr.) or ex-outfielders (like Gary Sheffield). So many, in fact, that guys like Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter and Jermaine Dye got completely left off the roster.

Anywho, below is a 25 man roster comprised of the best active African American baseball players. Outside of the bullpen, it's a championship-material team.

1-C-Russell Martin
2-1B-Prince Fielder
3-2B-Brandon Phillips
4-SS-Jimmy Rollins
5-3B-Chone Figgins
6-LF-Justin Upton
7-CF-Carl Crawford
8-RF-Matt Kemp
9-DH-Ryan Howard
10-OF-B.J. Upton
11-OF-Adam Jones
12-CI-Derrek Lee
13-MI-Orlando Hudson
14-MI-Rickie Weeks
15-SP-C.C. Sabathia
16-SP-Edwin Jackson
17-SP-David Price
18-SP-Ian Snell
19-SP-Dontrelle Willis
21-CL-LaTroy Hawkins
22-RP-Darren Oliver
23-RP-Tom Gordon
24-RP-Joel Zumaya
25-RP-Corey Wade

The team would be managed by Willie Randolph, but Dusty Baker would be Interm Manager if Willie Randolf was fired.

Active players who didn't make the cut who come to mind:
Andrew McCutchen, Torii Hunter, Curtis Granderson, Jermaine Dye, Milton Bradley, Vernon Wells, Jerry Hairston Jr., Juan Pierre, Eric Young Jr., Elijah Dukes, The Patterson Brother, Marcus Thames, Nyger Morgan, Arthur Rhodes, Bobby Scales, Jerry Owens, Cameron Maybin, Bill Hall, Mike Cameron, Fred Lewis, Emmanuel Burris, Dexter Fowler, Gary Matthews Jr., Joey Gathright, Rajai Davis

Guys who do not qualify for the list because they were forced into retirement:
Frank Thomas (old, ineffective), Kenny Lofton (old, still effective), Ray Durham (old, still effective), Jacques Jones (not exactly old, but he's always sucked), Shawn Chacon (choke-slammed a GM)

Chris Davis: Texas' Toxic Threebagger

Coming into the season, I was big on three sluggers who I felt flew way under the radar going into draft day: Nelson Cruz, Joey Votto and Chris Davis. All three of these hitters showed enormous power potential in the minors and put together similarly quality (partial) seasons last year:

Joey Votto: 589 AB, .297 AVG, 69 R, 84 RBI, 24 HR, 7 SB

Nelson Cruz: 115 AB, .330 AVG, 19 R, 26 RBI, 7 HR, 3 SB (on pace for a 35 HR, 15 SB, 95 R, 130 RBI season)

Chris Davis: 295 AB, .285 AVG, 51 R, 55 RBI, 17 HR, 1 SB (on pace for a 35 HR, 100 R, 110 RBI season)

Given Dusty Baker's hatred/abuse of young players, Nelson Cruz's AAAA career and Bill James' overwhelming approval of Chris Davis (he called him one of the few guys who would legitimately reach 40 HR this season), Davis seemed like the safest choice of the bunch -- and his 70 ADP on MockDraftCentral, which was the lowest of these three guys, reflected and reaffirmed this belief.

However, now almost 3 months through the season, Chris Davis has not only been the worst player of my three sleepers, but one of the worst players in baseball. There's still a lot to like about Davis (such as the .216 ISO), but the downside (45.5% K rate, 8% higher than the #2 guy, Mark Reynolds) seemingly outweighs the potential.

Currently, Chris Davis supports a .194/.248/.410 slash line, thanks to 45.5% K rate, 5.9% walk rate (bottom 20 among all major league hitters) and 1.4 speed score. The power is legitimate (13 HR in 222 AB, .216 ISO), but Davis' Three-True-Outcome tendencies (Davis K's, HR's or BB's in 58% of his PA's, which is second this season to only Carlos Pena, who follows the TTO formula 60.3% of the time) are quite disconcerting because they skew heavily towards the bad third of the Three True Outcomes -- the strikeouts. Despite posting a .194 BA, Davis's BABIP is an only slightly unlucky .280, thanks to the enormous amount of whiffing he does (Davis is the fastest major league player to ever reach 100 Ks in a season). Any fantasy baseball manager expecting any semblance of a rebound from Davis in the BA department is going to be severely disappointed until that K rate halves.

Furthermore, even if he were to cut down on the strikeouts, Davis' poor pitch recognition (5.9% BB rate, 36.3% O-Swing [24.8% MLB average], 53.6 Swing% [44.9 MLB average] and 47.6% contact [62.4% MLB average]) makes him extremely prone to extended hitting slumps.

All of these markers indicate the following:
1) When Chris Davis makes contact, he drives the ball (his home runs average 413.2 feet in distance, top 5 in baseball)
2) Chris Davis does not make much contact with baseballs and also does not take pitches, which makes him a BA/OBP liability
3) Even if Chris Davis were to hit for a higher average and cut down on the strike outs, his poor pitch recognition and giant hole in his swing make him an extremely streaky, inconsistent hitter that is going to give Rangers fans and fantasy managers peptic ulcers
3) As indicated by his .281 wOBA, a slugger with no ability to get on base has marginal value at best (click here to read about the importance of walking and getting on base over slugging), and thus Chris Davis may lose playing time to minor league 1B slugger Justin Smoak

My love of Chris Davis has waned to the point of disappointment this season and I've dropped him in all of my leagues. I recommend you either do the same if you cannot find a trade partner. This isn't the same situation as Dan Uggla, the Adam Dunn of the middle infield, whose 2B positional eligibility and bad luck make him an undervalued asset. Chris Davis is just a powerful man who is not as good at hitting as perhaps I once pegged him.

Dusty Baker Baseball 101

Eckstein wanted me to post on Dusty Baker's latest lesson in the basics of baseball. News came that star second basement Brandon Phillips was fined for swinging on a 3-0 count when given the take sign by Dusty Baker.

Firstly, given Baker's track record I too would always do the opposite of what Dusty says. Remember last year when he told Adam Dunn to bunt in the 9th inning and then this happened. Or when Dusty told Edwin Encarnacion to bunt he went yard. Or when he pinch hit Javier Valentine for Jay freakin Bruce in the 9th. Or when he batted out of order. Or when he batted Corey Patterson lead-off, for 2 different teams. Or when he replaced Patterson with his evil twin Willy Taveras. Or when he batted Neifi Perez lead-off. Or when he personally shredded Mark Prior's arm, and Aaron Harang's arm, and Edinson Volquez's arm. Or his personal game theory of kissing his nekclace for good luck. Yeah, just a track record of fantastic decisions. Worst manager ever.

How is it reasonable to fine major league players for mistakes they make on the playing field, pseudo-mistakes at that. Maybe they should be fines everytime they strike out, or drop a ball, or give up a homer run. That would probably be excessive as Phillips was officially fined for insubordination. In the words of Baker

If you've ever been in the military, you still have to follow orders. That's what it boils down to

Yes, baseball is just like the military. If Phillips doesnt follow orders, people will die. You wanted the truth? You cant handle the truth.

Considering the Reds were down by 2 runs with 2 men on base and the second best power hitter on the team, I would not blame Phillips for swinging at the pitch. This reminds me greatly of what Clint Hurdle recently tried to do. Fining or benching players for swinging at pitches is becoming a new fad of managers who have only this year discovered the importance of OBP. Dusty Baker never game a crap about walks prior to this year and same goes for Clint Hurdle. Their dictatorship tactics is probably just a way to cover up their insecurity about being the last 2 people in the world to realize sac bunts are retarded beyond imagination. Hopefully Baker has a similar fate to Hurdle, until of course he finds a new job from some desperate GM.

Dusty Baker doesn't just break pitchers

Joey Votto is still dizzy. After a bout with flu last week, Joey Votto -- who played every inning of every Reds' game prior to his illness -- is still not 100%. Perhaps its because Dusty Baker refuses to rest Joey Votto.

Other guys Dusty refused to rest: Edwin Encarnacion (DL), Aaron Harang (broken last season), Mark Prior (broken every season).

Reds players beware.

Box Score Tonight: May 4

Could someone answer this question for me once and for all. Why is a sac fly not an official at-bat, but an RBI groundout is? Maybe it's one of Bud Selig's rules, fucker

• Ohhh Javy Vasquez. Nice job cluttching up. After 5 scoreless innings, he man's up and gives up 6 over the next 2 with 3 homers. At least he struck out 8! Beltran is quietly the best player in the NL.
• Jon Lester has 43K in 37IP but a disturbing 7 homers against. Oh, he also overcame cancer.
  
• Ryan Zimmerman appears back to his 2007 form as seen through his wOBA.
• Liriano finally gets his first win of the season and Denard Span is proving he's no 4th outfielder hitting .323 with 8 steals.
• Matt Capps blows his first save, despite a 7.56 era. He may be the next closer casualty. Ricky Weeks with a game winning 3 run bomb.
• Kerry Wood blew a save and has a 7.2 era. Thats why you dont pay a closer 10 mil. I dont care who it is. Matt Laporta begins to fill CC's shoes, all 22 inches and 500 pound, with his first homer.
• It's a shame the Orioles pitching is so bad giving up a .301 BA against, 12 points higher than any other team. Still the offense came through today between Roberts and Markakis
• Here's how dumb dusty baker is. He put a pitcher in his bullpen, Daniel Herrera, who's average fastball is 83mph. He took the loss today in 14 innings to the Marlins. Apparently Baker missed the Shingo Takatsu experiment the white sox tried several year ago. At least he threw 86.
• Ryan Theriot has gone deep 3 out of the last 4 games. I believe the record for consecutive games with a homer is Griffey and Thome at 8 games. The-Riot can do it! He did OPS .934 in 134 at-bats in 2006.
  
• Zack Greinke came in with a 0.50 ERA, it went down after a complete game shutout. Whatever medication he's taking, I want it!! He currently has a 1.47 FIP, which is still higher than Pedro had in 1999 of 1.39 - best pitcher ever.
  
• Ryan Howard hits another grand slam. I believe DME isnt the biggest howard fan, despite his career .395 wOBA.
  
• Joe Saunders managed 7K in 6.2IP thanks to Jack Cust golden Sombrero 4K. Beane claims to have the bet young pitching in baseball. I will admit they are young
• Chris Iannetta hits a grand slam and Sexyrexy still refuses to start him in fantasy. Please play Kurt Suzuki all year long. Please
• It's May, which means King Felix is in operation shut down. I will admit he is the best one April pitcher ever
• I'm ready to crown the Dodgers, cause they are who we thought they were, and we let em off the hook!

• 
  

Box Score Tonight: April 18

The theme tonight is the shutout as there were 6 of them

• Trevor Cahill has 13 walks, 5 K's in 17.1IP. He's the reverse Cory Patterson, despite having the highest VORP on the A's. Lyle Overbay hits his first walkoff home run, or homerun in general as far as i'm concerned.
  
• Ian Snell should star in the new movie "2007 again" as he throws 7 shutout innings. Quitely Chipper Jones hasnt played in the last 4 games due to a finger injury. That didnt take long
• Joel Hanrahan has had 2 save opportunities all year. They both came in the past two days. He has blown both. Thanks a lot. Bonifacio is 1 for his last 16. Who called it. Ups to me. Elijah Dukes cant buy a break as some guy named Bernadina started ahead of him. Kearns hits a grand slam
  
• I dont care about Santana's 83% stranded rate last season, the guy is unstoppable and will continue his greatness this year. 0.46 ERA in 3 starts
• Chieng-Mang Wang has allowed 23 runs, 23 hits in 6IP. That is how you accumulate a -11 VORP and 10 FIP in just 3 games. 14 run 2nd for the Indians as every player got a hit, scored a run, and deflowered a virgin. If Dirty 30 pitches when the Yanks are down 10, who pitches when they are down 18? Don Zimmer
• Cubs/Cards just can't play a normal game. This one ends with an Aramis Ramirez walkoff 2 run bomb in the 11th. According to fangraphs, he has outperformed his contracts by 45 million dollars. Think the Pirates want to redo the Aram, Kenny Lofton, Randall Simon for Bobby Hill trade? Just use the Easy Button
• Anyone who didn't know, Micah Hoffpauir hit 4 homers in a single game in AAA last year and had 100RBI's in 71 games. Maybe find him some at-bats. Just saying.
  
• Manram and Either go deep twice, TWICE!
• Zona shuts out San Fran 2-0 the day after being shutout 0-2. Lincecum K's 13 in 7IP. 6th time this year a pitcher gets 13 K's, all of which came in loses. Secret to baseball, be Livan Hernandez
• The Dusty Baker's get shutout by Wandy Rodriguez. Arang Harang is not a machine
• Last year Brad Lidge gave up 15 runs, he's already allowed 7 this year. Also blows his first save since about the time Albert Pujols chastised him
• Carlos Quintin hits 6th home run. Does not break wrist punching bat
• Dustin Pedroia does not like his home town, mainly cause they wont let his child molesting brother, molest children. Bill James predicts Adam Eaton will have a sub 5 FIP. Why is he so freakin generous. Not as generous as Marcel giving Cory Lidle 4 wins this year despite being dead.
• Twins score 9 runs with just 2 XBHs. Yesterday, the Yanks scrored 6 runs while hitting 5 home runs. Huh?
• When Zack Greinke isnt suicidal, he's a hell of a pitcher. Complete game shutout biatch, over the powerful Rangers
• So far, the Tigers have gotten the better end of the Edwin Jackson/Matt Joyce trade. Still doesnt make up for getting Willis, then signing him to an extension. Someone put him on the subway diet.

Apparently the Phils and Orioles have both set records for allowing the most home runs the first 2 weeks of the baseball season. The pirates have the lowest team ERA, and guess which team leads the league in pitching strikeouts? The Cubs for the 136th straight year

Box Score Tonight: April 15

The San Diego Super Padres run has officially come to and end. Just in time to dedicated today's Box Score Tonight section to the greatest jew to ever live. Ian Kinsler

• Despite his high WHIP and work load in the WBC, it's time we accept the fact the Armando Galarraga is an awesome pitcher. Shuts out the White Sox offense while Cabrera continues to mash the ball over the fence. How long until Cabrera mashes the dinner table and eats himself out of the league? Seriously, he starting to remind me of an oopma loompa.
• Kerry Wood got a save for Indians. NOOOOOOOOOO
• Rich Harden strikes out 8 in 3IP. Still gets rocketed by the Rocks. Derek Lee actually has home run power. Who knew?
• Time Wakefield took a no-hitter into the 8th against the A's. So much for their new and improved offense.
  
• If not for a weak bullpen, the Cards would be undefeated.
  
• John Garland allows 12 base runners in 3.2IP while Joel Piniero allows 12 base runners in 5 IP. Hence the Cardinals wins.
  
• Grant Balfour mysteriously has a 21 ERA after being Marmol like unhittable last season. Yanks pull out a late inning win due to Jeter's cluttchiness
• The Marlins are 7-1. The offense will actually be worse this year than last, but the starting pitching is finally healthy(outside sergio mitre, yeah no one cares) and are dominating the national league
• Mike Hampton decided to finally start earning the 126 mil he stole from Colorado/Atlanta for the Astros. He was a 20 game winner for the Astros back in the day.
  
• Met's get first win at CitiField behind the arm of Oliver Perez. Don't expect it to continue though.
• The Reds managed one walk today. Yup, sounds like a Dusty Baker team. Mike Cameron goes yard twice.
• Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey are struggling big time this year without Mauer behind the plate. And we have a Michael Barrett sighting as he homers for the Jays.
  
• Ichiro returns with a grand slam as Jared Washburn is officially resurrected
  
• Clayton Kershaw with 13K in 7IP and Dodgers win on the walk-off walk.
  
• It's Ian Kinsler's world and we're just living in it. He hits for the cycle and a half as he adds on an extra single and double for a 6-6 day. He also added 5 runs score, 4 RBI, a stolen base. Move over Sandy Koufax, we have a new Jew in town. He's the Captain Planet of major league baseball.