2011 Draft Special: Pick #8- Tennessee Titans

Just for my own sake (and I'm sure for you) according to Game Of Inches' mock draft, here's which players that have been drafted so far:

1) Carolina Panthers- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)
2) Denver Broncos- DE Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson)
3) Buffalo Bills- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
4) Cincinnati Bengals- WR A.J. Green (Georgia)
5) Arizona Cardinals- QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
6) Cleveland Browns- OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
7) San Fransisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)

Last year Tennessee Titans had the second worst run blocking offensive line and the ninth best pass blocking offensive line. A lot of Football Outsider's offensive line stats have to do with the players that play behind the line. I don't think the Indianapolis Colts have all *that* good of a pass blocking offensive line but their FO pass blocking stats look better because Peyton Manning gets rid of the ball very quickly and doesn't get sacked. But considering the Titans had a top two rushing talent in Chris Johnson had a QB carousel that had Rusty Smith playing in three games, I think it's safe to say that these offensive line statistics are because of the line itself and not because of the talent of the skill positions. In terms of blocking Tennessee had THE WORST center and left guard and the third worst right tackle. On the plus side they had the sixth best right guard. Needless to say they are in desperate need of an offensive line.

On the defensive side Tennessee had the 7th best run blocking defensive line and 13th best pass blocking defensive line. Even though they don't have Albert Haynesworth or Kyle Vanden Bosch, Jason Babin and Dave Ball have filled in quite nicely on that defensive line. According to Football Outsiders, the Titans had the 13th best defense but were awful at stopping their opponent's number one receiver. They were really good at stopping every other receivers, just not the most important one to stop.

However, Tennessee's biggest problem right now is that they do not have a quarterback. They flat out released Vince Young, Rusty Smith is barely roster-able, and Kerry Collins will turn 39 in the middle of the 2011 season. If the lockout does happen then Tennessee can wait on drafting a quarterback in this draft and focus on their secondary and offensive line in this draft. But not only is that a horrible strategy to take, I don't think the NFL will have a lockout in 2011. I'm all for building up offensive lines but in Tennessee's case I don't know if the best offensive line ever make any current Tennessee quarterback good.

According to Scout's Inc Big Board Nebraska's defensive back Prince Amukamara would not only be a perfect fit for the Titans to complement Courtland Finnegan but would not be a reach. Realistically I think The Prince will be available to Tennessee at this spot, but in terms of this mock draft he is already taken. The other players in this area that would not be a reach for the Titans would be defensive ends and defensive players. But, on paper, Tennessee isn't *that* bad of a team that they can be picky and fill specific needs. And a defensive lineman is not a need for the Titans.

If I was the Titans GM and I was running this team I would 100% draft an offensive lineman right about now because I wouldn't have released Vince Young. However, if I'm the GM and I don't have a quarterback right now I'm torn between drafting an offensive lineman and drafting a quarterback. My first instinct is to go out and get a Kevin Kolb or even Matt Leinart. But if I can not do that then here is where I think the first reach of the draft occurs as the Tennessee Titans select Auburn QB Cam Newton.

As was stated in "We Are Marshall" the best way to get around a bad offensive line is to run the option offense. Chris Johnson is currently the best back in the game (and fastest) to run the option and Cam Newton is the best QB prospect on the board to run it as well. Tennessee used to run the option with Vince Young and CJ last year and it worked great for them. Now obviously a professional football team can't (rather shouldn't) run a full option offense for fear of hurting their franchise quarterback, but Newton is a great player to help this organization and to keep the option in the Tennessee playbook. After they take Newton the Titans can then re-build their offensive line.

Cam Newton is essentially an improved version of Vince Young. When you compare both quarterback's last season in college, Newton had the better completion percentage (66.1 to 65.2), better TD/INT ratio (4.29 to 2.60), more rushing touchdowns (20 to 12), better passer rating (182.05 to 163.90), more Heisman awards (1 to 0), and more cheating fathers (1 to 0). Cam Newton also does not have a single fumble as either a wide receiver or a quarterback. Cam Newton is a more talented Vince Young with less turnovers.

Tennessee's second pick should be spent on an offensive lineman to help Chris Johnson unleash his talent and their third pick should be spent on a defensive back to help out that secondary.

Titan's Needs:

- Offensive Lineman

- Defensive Backs

- Wide Receiver

- Tight End

Norm McDonald hosting the 1998 ESPYs

2011 Draft Special: Pick #7- San Francisco 49ers

"With the number one overall pick in the 2005 draft, the San Fransisco 49ers select... Aaron Rodgers. Quarterback from University of California"

Oh how amazing would life be for the 49ers if they actually had a good organization and was able to draft well. The 2010 49ers offense had seven first round players on it: Alex Smith, Ted Ginn Jr., Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati and two second round players in guard Chilo Rachal and center/guard David Baas.

Needless to say at least San Fran has the right approach considering four of their five starting offensive lineman are either a first or second round draft pick. But with that being said, last year the 49ers had the 13th best rushing offensive line but the 30th best passing offensive line. Albeit I've only seen two San Fransisco games in 2010, but I think the main reason for that extremely low pass blocking ranking is due more because of the quarterback than it was because of the line. In 2010, San Fran had the second best left guard blocker and the third best right guard blocker according to Football Outsiders. This offensive line is fairly young outside of 36 year old left tackle Barry Sims. For as bad of a team as the 49ers were last year, this is the first team in this 32 for 32 series that I can say with confidence that they don't really need to focus on offensive lineman for the 2011 draft. Sure, they need a left tackle and trying to bolster your offensive line is always encouraged, but San Fransisco has more pressing matters to take care of.

While I don't truly believe that San Fran will tank an entire season just so new head coach John Harbaugh can be reunited with his college protege Andrew Luck, I don't know what San Fran's plan is to fix their quarterback problems. It's nearly impossible for Blaine Gabbert to fall this far and it would be a huge reach for the 49ers to draft either Ryan Mallet or Cam Newton. They should take a stab at prying away Kevin Kolb from Philly, but it truly sounds like Minnesota is going to get him. Vince Young is out there and is an above average quarterback, but I don't see the huge upgrade from Young over currently rostered Troy Smith.

Here's a name from the dead that I think will be a great for the Niners: Matt Leinart. I'm sure it will cost San Francisco very little to pry away Leinart from the Houston Texans and if Harbaugh truly wants to wait a year to get Luck, Leinart would be a great short term fix. Hell, I think he would be a great long term fix as well.

Another name that has been brought up since I wrote this post: Kyle Orton. The Broncos organization seem to be focusing solely on Tim Tebow (and they probably should try to develop their future franchise player) and I've been a Orton fan since his rookie year in Chicago. I don't think it would be unreasonably or unrealistic for San Francisco to give up a third or second round pick to get Orton.

The point is, the 49ers needs a QB and I think it's best for them to get one via free agency and not via the draft.

Which now brings us back to the 2011 draft. Who should the 49ers take? I think for starters it has to be a defensive player because I think the only piece missing from that offense is a competent quarterback. San Fran currently has the best (or at least a top five) linebacker on their squad. A little guy by the name of Patrick Willis. (Hey, Willis, Jeremy Shockey said you suck. Hey, don't blame me, that's just what he told me). When Willis is not filming commercials with Kenny Powers he destroying opposing offenses. However, outside of Willis, the team is full of just complementary players such as Takeo Spikes and Nate Clemons.

I think realistically Von Miller could fall to San Fran and this is the earliest and best spot for him, but I just don't think it will happen. There are some great defensive lineman such as Illinois' DT Corey Luiget, North Carolina's Robert Quinn, and Alabama's DT Marcell Dareus. The 49ers run a 3-4 scheme and Scout's Inc says that Dareus "Has enough size to play DE is certain 3-4 schemes" but I don't know if he's big enough to play nose tackle at *only* 6'2" 303 pounds. According to the scouting report Quinn doesn't sound versatile enough to play on a 3-4 defensive line and Luiget is the same size as Dareus but not as talented. Therefore, I think the 49ers should go cornerback here.

Both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay agree that Nebraska's Prince Amukamara is the second best corner (best currently on the board) and I think he'll be a great complement to Nate Clemons.

In the second round the Niners need a pass rushing linebacker. Georgia'a Justin Houston and UCLA's Akeem Ayers would be great fits but will most likely be drafted by the time the second round rolls around. However, if Nevada's Dontay Moch happens to fall to San Fran, he would be a perfect fit. He's an outside linebacker that's a converted defensive end and he's not projected to be a first round pick.

The 49ers had a top five defense in 2009 and if they draft the best defensive player on the board in the first round, Moch in the second round and is able to swipe a Kyle Orton or Kevin Kolb (or even Matt Leinart) they not only will win the crappy NFC West for sure, they could be Superbowl bound.

49ers Needs:

- Quarterback

- Defensive Lineman

- Wide Receivers

- Pass Rushing Linebackers

- Left Guard

Game Of Inches AL-Only League

Dear Game of Inches reader,

If you would like to join a GOI AL-only league, please send your request to gameofinchesblog@gmail.com

Love,
Sexy Rexy

Evaluating xWHIP 2.0 (and Quick xWHIP)

Editor's Note: The following article was written by xWHIP 2.0 Calculator co-collaborator and creator of Simple/Quick xWHIP, Martin Alex Hambrick. You can download the xWHIP 2.0 Calculator (requires Excel or Open Office) by clicking here.

About six months ago, I began tinkering with the concept of predicting WHIP. After all, WHIP is one of the most widely used indicators of pitcher skill, and in most fantasy leagues, it's a category. Additionally, the components should, in theory, be relatively easy to predict. Walk rate tends to remain consistent from year to year, and the number of hits a pitcher allow should regress, much like a pitcher's BABIP.

I set about predicting WHIP by regressing hits against various standards. While I was looking at the numbers, I noticed an interesting trend: WHIP correlated extremely strongly with K/BB ratio. I was interested in turning correlation into something useful for predicting WHIP, but I wasn't sure how to. So, I took the extremely scientific (sarcasm) path of using Excel to generate the trend line equation and then worked backwards from that.

I was left with the following equation: 1.54 - .512K = xH/IP . I rounded out the numbers, threw bases on balls into the mix, and was left with the following: 1.5 + (BB - .5K)/IP = xWHIP

This correlated extremely strongly with career WHIP, with an R-squared and R value of .6758 and .822 , respectively. However, it consistently estimated WHIP far higher than the actual results. So despite the strong correlation, the accuracy wasn't quite there. I tinkered with the variables involved and tried to standardize it based on factors such as league hits/out, and was left with the following formula, which worked well and was quite accurate. But I didn't have any explanation for why it worked. "It just works" was my motto:

1.375 + (BB - .5K)/IP = xWHIP

I sat on this formula for awhile until I met another stat-head, Jeff Gross, who had independently come up with the idea of xWHIP. However, he was using a far more scientific means of generating xWHIP, regressing against real game data averages for various events: ground balls, fly balls, pop-ups, line drives, etc. All of these tend to produce outs at a specific rate that remains constant from year to year. So if you have the number of batted ball types a pitcher allows, you should be able to predict the number of hits he will allow and thus predict his WHIP.

We worked together with the formula for expected hits, and came up with an additional statistic: expected outs, which would be used in place of innings pitched. While Jeff worked on further refining the formula, I reexamined the "Simple xWHIP" formula.

Using Jeff's formula, I plugged in the statistics of an "average" pitcher, one who throws an average number of ground balls, fly balls, line drives, and pop-ups. The only two variables I left unknown were strikeouts and walks. After simplifying the equation, I was left with the following: 1.3747 + (BB - .496*K)/IP. Since the goal is simplicity, and these numbers are close enough, we can round up and get exactly what I got before:

1.375 + (BB - .5K)/IP = xWHIP

Finally there was a valid basis for my formula that "just worked." After discovering that, I went to work at checking the statistical validity of both xWHIP (using the expected innings formula, not actual innings pitcher) and "Simple xWHIP." I did two calculations for each year: predictive and evaluative. Evaluative is simply comparing 2010 xWHIP vs. 2010 WHIP. Predictive is taking a pitcher's career xWHIP until a given year and using that to predict that year's WHIP.

The results were as follows:



As you can see, xWHIP does a pretty good job as both a predictive and evaluative stat. Stat-heads can look at the R^2 value. For the lay person, just look at "Accuracy." What that says is, if you picked a pitcher at random, his xWHIP would be, on average, that much higher or lower than his real WHIP.

As you can also see, xWHIP and "Simple xWHIP" are remarkably similar in their predictive and evaluative power. Full xWHIP is clearly the better choice when you have all the data in front of you, and it will more accurately reflect the abilities of extreme groundball and flyball pitchers. But, when it comes to simplicity, you can't beat Simple xWHIP. In many cases, you don't even need a calculator to figure it out.

So, using Simple xWHIP, let's examine pitchers in 2010. First, we'll look at the 10 pitchers whose xWHIP was significantly higher or significantly lower than their WHIP.



This gives a pretty good indication of people to steer clear of. Most of these are pretty obvious, but Matt Cain and Ubaldo Jiminez both strike me as pitchers a lot of people would overpay for.

On the flip side, some interesting names top the list of people poised for a bounce-back year. Of course, some of these you still want to avoid like the plague—a .13 dropoff from a 1.56 WHIP is still pretty bad. I'm looking at you, Paul Maholm.

Now, let's look at the people with the best WHIP, and what you can expect from them next year:



Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, Roy Halladay, Mat Latos, Josh Johnson, Shaun Marcum and Justin Verlander are all poised to remain at or below a 1.2 WHIP, and you should pay face value for them. A few guys, like Adam Wainwright, Ted Lilly and Roy Oswalt should still be high-end WHIP pitchers, but be aware that they pitched far beyond their abilities last season.

Finally, let's take a look at the pitchers with the best xWHIP and see if we can find any high value pickups.



Most of the pitchers with very low xWHIP also had very low WHIP, so you will have a hard time getting them for a good value. James Shields, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano seem to represent the best values here. Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum are good values in theory, but more than likely you will see people pick them up simply because they have the marquee name, so you may still have to overpay to grab them.

So there you have it. xWHIP and Simple xWHIP. Simple xWHIP, like FIP, is easy to calculate, yet still very powerful. xWHIP is a bit more complex, but accounts for much more and will give you a more accurate view of any specific pitcher, especially an extreme groundball or flyball pitcher.

2011 Draft Special: Pick #6- Cleveland Browns

A few years ago I won my fantasy football league with Pierre Thomas, Tyler Thigpen, and Peyton Hillis. When Hillis got traded to the Browns and starting performing well early in 2010 I suggested he be picked up for your fantasy team. Now he's become one of the best running backs in the league. Last year the team drafted Colt McCoy in the third round and he actually looks pretty darn good. He's mobile and looks accurate and is a great project and player to develop over the next few years while Mike Holmgren starts to rebuild this team. Cleveland also has a pretty good tight end in Ben Watson, although Watson's getting pretty close to being the wrong side of 30 and the wrong side of being talented. However, I truly believe that the Browns have THE WORST receiving corps in the league. This team is in desperate need of even a #2 wide receiver. Hell, I'm not even convinced that their best wide out- Mohamed Massaquoi- is even a number three receiver. It's possible that A.J. Green slips out of the top five if say the Bengals trade away Carson Palmer so they draft Blaine Gabbert and then Arizona drafts Von Miller leaving Green ripe for the taking. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening.

Before I transition over to the defense, Cleveland has a great offensive lineman in Joe Thomas and their guards are pretty good and the right side of that line is above average, but like I've said earlier, you can always improve your offensive line.

Now officially transitioning over to the defense. Off the top of my head I can not name you a single Browns defensive player. I'm looking now at the Browns depth chart and I still can't name you a single defensive player. The two best defensive players left to draft, according to Scout's Inc, is Von Miller, 'Bama's defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, and Nebraska's cornerback (and the guy who might have the best name ever) Prince Amukamara.

Local Chicago radio sports host Dan Bernstein once said that out of the three lines of defense (defensive line, linebackers, and defensive backs) if he could only have one line be the best he would rank them: 1) defensive line 2) defensive back 3) linebackers. And I have to agree with Mr. Bernstein. So my gut tells me that the Browns should draft Dareus, then Amukamara, then Miller. But at the same time, I think there's a reason Miller is considered a better talent than either Dareus or Amukamara. And if you're a rebuilding team, you take the best defensive player on the board. Plus, look what great outside linebackers like Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing have done in the NFL.

So with the sixth pick of the 2011 draft, the Cleveland Browns select Von Miller.

By the time their next pick comes around to them I would be all for drafting a wide receiver. The highest rated wide receiver after A.J. Green is Alabama's Julio Jones, but he's going to go in the first round and there's no way the Browns will be able to draft Jones without trading picks to get him. Scout's Inc has Kentucky's Randall Cobb has the next best wide out while Mel Kiper doesn't even have Cobb as a top five wide receiver prospect. Kiper's third best WR is Maryland's Torrey Smith. While unfortunately I do not watch enough college football to know if either Cobb or Smith is better or really who the third best wide receiver prospect is behind Green and Jones. Either way, the Browns are in desperate need of getting Colt McCoy some receivers to throw to.

Brown's needs:

- An entire defense

If I can't name a single player on your defense, you need defensive players. If you earned the sixth draft pick, you need defensive players

- Wide Receivers

The Browns have the worst receiving corps in the league and they need talent to help McCoy grow and develop

- Center

This offensive line is decently good for a five win team that struggled to score points. Every NFL team can use an upgrade on their offensive line but the one area of concern for Cleveland is their center.

- Tight End

Just because Watson is getting up their in age plus the GOI rankers ranked him on average 19 out of 32 (and that doesn't include players like Rob Gronkowski who were left off of the list)

2011 Draft Special: Pick #5- Arizona Cardinals

This is a team that is in desperate need of a quarterback. Larry Fitzgerald is still awesome and getting open but his quarterback(s) in 2010 were atrocious. The entire history of the Chicago Bears organization looked at the 2010 Arizona Cardinals and were laughing at how bad their quarterback play was. John Skelton proved he's at least accurate enough to throw to a wide open receiver (in Fitzy) which was something Derek Anderson and Max Hall could not do.

I know this team has many other areas to address and the last "97" (the highest rating for a college player according to Scout's Inc) player left is OLB Von Miller- which this team could desperate use, but this team needs Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert. The Cardinals have the benefit of playing in the worst division in professional sports so the addition of Gabbert could immediately spring this team into a playoff birth.

Now the Cardinals probably are a linebacker away from being an elite defense again, but I think former Steelers coordinator Ken Wisenhunt can address those needs later in the draft. This team has a pretty darn good secondary with Kerry Rhodes and Adrian Wilson at safety and the best Cromartie corner in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. According to Advanced NFL Stats the Cardinals had the best defensive lineman in 2010 in Darnell Dockett. So Texas A&M's Von Miller playing opposite of the aging Joey Porter could do great things, but I'll trust Whisenhunt with an offense.

After taking a *huge* whiff and miss (much like a Carlos Pena at bat in 2010) on Beanie Wells a few years back the Cardinals also need a running back. While I am under the personal belief that Tim Hightower could do pretty darn good with talented offensive line, if Illinois running back Mikel LeShoure falls out of the first round (which is entirely plausible) I think he could fall to Arizona in the second. Denver is "stuck" with Knowshown Moreno, the Bills have Spiller and Fred Jackson and the Bengals have Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott. With New England having the first pick in the second round (via a trade with Carolina) and two first round picks it does worry me that they will draft either LeShoure or Alabama's Mark Ingram which will mean there is no way a good running back (in either LeShoure or Ingram) will fall to Arizona. But that being said, we're talking about the New England Patriots here. They have such a fantastic offensive line that they can plug in a practice squad guy (Danny Woodhead) and their 4th guy on the depth chart (The Law Firm) and have a great rushing attack so why draft a running back? Point is, if either LeShoure or Ingram fall to the Cardinals in the beginning of the second round, the Cardinals should snag them up in a heart beat.

Cardinal's Needs:

- Offensive Lineman

Essentially every bad team's needs offensive lineman

- Linebacker

- Defensive Lineman

Arizona needs someone, anyone to help out Dockett

2011 Draft Special: Pick #4- Cincinnati Bengals

After three posts of essentially saying the same thing (The QB, RB, and WR are good and everything else is crap) I can finally say something new. The Bungels (not a spelling error) quarterback sucks. I used to love Carson Palmer and who couldn't? His first four years in the league were really good. But then, on January 8th 2006, in a playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, defensive tackle Kimo von Oelhoffen tackled Palmer and tore up the quarterback's knee. Since that injury Palmer has not been the same player. It's a sad story to report upon, but I think Carson Palmer is done as a starter.

Now I will say there is some doubt in the back of my mind if he truly is done as a starter. In the Bengals last two games, games played without Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens (as well as in Week 15 a game played without T.O.) Palmer looked really good. Watching Palmer play throughout the 2010 season he just looked bad so I tend to think his games towards the end of the year were just outliers. However, there is some reason to believe that Palmer performed so well was because of the Eli Manning Effect. (In 2006, after Manning lost all of the "Me. Me. Me." pieces on his offense like Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey he had one of his best seasons ever and won a Superbowl).

However, I discount the Eli Manning Effect for many reasons: 1) Palmer looked amazing when he had Chad Ochocinco (then Johnson) before his injury so why would that dynamic and chemistry change if Palmer is fully over his injury? 2) I don't think Ochocinco is actually a "Me. Me. Me." guy- I think fans and the media confuse him for one because he's outspoken 3) Palmer to T.O. looked pretty darn good in 2010.

Like with the vast majority of struggling offenses, the problems can be traced back to the offensive line. In 2010, Cincinnati had great play out of their left tackle but below average play out of their other four lineman. Cedric Benson has proven to be a very good back and the team has Bernard Scott waiting in the wings so they're set at running back. An underlooked position (especially from me in these posts) have been the tight end position and the Bengals have a darn good and young one in Jermaine Gresham. I think Ochocinco has worn out his welcome in Cincy and there is no way T.O. stays for another year. However, the Bengals have good youngster and my boy Jordan Shipley for their possession guy and a halfway decent crop around him in Jerome Simpson and bug-eyed Andre Caldwell.

Now let's turn to the defense. Cornerback Jonathan Joseph is a free agent but if he stays, him and Leon Hall is one of the best cornerback tandems in the league. Cincy also drafted USC middle linebacker Ray Maualuaga to sure up the middle of their defense a few years back. However, for the past two years, Cincinnati has had below average run blocking and bad pass blocking efforts from their defensive line. When you run a 4-3 scheme (or really ANY scheme for that matter, but especially with the 4-3 base) and have bad play up front then it's hard to win games because you're not putting any pressure on the quarterback which in turn will allow the opposing quarterback to torch your defense.

According to Scouts Inc (and the three teams that have already "drafted") there are two top tiered talent left- wide receiver A.J. Green from Georgia and outside linebacker Von Miller from Texas A&M. Todd McShay has them both ranked as 97. However, just a notch below these players, ranked 96 is Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert and Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus.

Recently, Carson Palmer has made noise that he wants his team to trade him otherwise he'll retire, but the team refuses to because they think he's still their franchise quarterback. (And if the negotiations with Chad Ochocinco showed, the Bengals organization has no problem playing chicken with their players). I personally think Palmer is done and Cincy should trade him. There are plenty of teams (Arizona, Minnesota, Seattle, San Fransisco, Tennessee just to name a few) that would be more than willing to pay top dollar to get Palmer. Hell, Seattle gave up a first round pick for Deion Branch and Dallas gave up two first round picks for wide receiver Roy Williams. If I was Cincinnati's GM I would flip Palmer for draft picks, draft Gabbert, and use the extra picks to address the other, many needs my teams has.

However, I think Palmer stays and I think this team truly believes he is not done. If that's the case, then this team should draft A.J. Green. Green is 6'4" and looks like Calvin Johnson-lite. His height already puts him about a head taller than most cornerbacks and look how amazing Megatron has looked in Detroit. If Palmer truly is not done then a tandem of Green and Jordan Shipley could be the next Randy Moss/ Wes Welker (a la 2007 Patriots, not 2010 Patriots). Even if this organization does not trade Palmer, they should at least trade Ochocinco and let Palmer run his team they way he wants to.

Bengals's Needs:

- Defensive Lineman

The team has average to above talent behind the defensive line so an improved defensive line will make the entire defense better

-Offensive Lineman

If Palmer is truly back to being elite then he can throw it quickly to make up for an average line. But if Palmer is not, then a better line is needed to make up for his lack of mobility and accuracy (or to help any QB under center for the Bungels).

Pujols: The Free Agent

According to Ken Rosenthal's sources talks between Albert Pujols and the Cardinals are trending in the wrong direction. Pujols, deserving so, is looking for Alex Rodriguez money, and the Cardinals are reportedly balking at an asking price modeled after a 10-year, $275 million dollar deal. While the overwhelming sentiment around baseball is that Pujols will probably end up signing a deal with the Cardinals, Pujols has nonetheless set an deadline regarding contract extension negotiations with the Cardinals for the start of spring training. Pujols' agent was vocal early this offseason that if a deal could not be reached by then, Pujols would test the free agency market. With this in mind, the question beckens: if not St. Louis, where?

Before looking at Pujols' best possible suitors, let's first analyze whether Alex Rodriguez is a good contracts negotiation point comparable. Last season, per Fangraphs, Pujols was "only" worth +7.3 WAR, the second worst single-season performance of his career. His "puny" WAR total qualified as third best amongst all major league hitters last year, behind only Josh Hamilton (+8.0 WAR) and Joey Votto (+7.4 WAR). In fact, the only other players in baseball last season to even crack the +7.0 WAR mark last season were Ryan Zimmerman (+7.2 WAR) and Adrian Beltre (+7.1 WAR). Exclusive company, to say the least. Alex Rodriguez (+3.9 WAR) didn't even crack the +4.0 WAR plateau last season.

In the four seasons prior to 2010, each of which was marred by some medley of limiting injuries which frequently required offseason surgey, Pujols posted WAR total of +8.3 or higher. From 2008-2009, Pujols accumulated +18.0 WAR. The dollar value of a win over the past three seasons has been approximately $4.5 million. Applying this total to Pujols' past three year WAR value of +25.3 WAR, Pujols produced at a clip worth approximately $113.85 million. Let's be pessimistically conservative and round that total down to a flat $100 million. Considering that Pujols made less than half of that total over the past three seasons ($48 million), you can understand why the best right handed hitter in baseball, wants to share in the profits. Pujols will make $16 million in 2011 and estimates of this offseason's dollar value per win peg a single win-above-replacement at $5 million. Hence Pujols would only have to produce a +3.2 WAR clip to be worth his salary. His career low in single season WAR is +5.7, from his sophomore season. Yeah, this guy is worth some money.

By comparison, let's look at Alex Rodriguez's value heading into his record-setting $275 million dollar contract. No one doubts that Alex Rodriguez was one of the best shortstops of all time (sorry, Derek Jeter, but it was you who should have slid over to third base) and, even as a third basemen, he has been one of the best players in baseball. However, when we compare Arod's WAR to Pujols' WAR, keep in mind that the positional adjustment differential is about 1.5 wins per season in favor of Arod.

In the three seasons prior to signing his massive contract with the Yankees (opting out of his current deal), Alex Rodriguez was worth a cumulative +22.9 WAR, despite playing the better position. While Pujols had the better three-year WAR total, Arod had the better two-of-three seasons, being worth +9.2 WAR in 2007 and +9.4 WAR in 2005. Arod had a real stinker of a season in 2006 by Arod standard, posting a "meager" +4.3 WAR campaign (still all-star caliber season, no matter what the New York media proclaimed at the time). In the three years prior to signing his record-setting contract, Alex Rodriguez accrued +172.3 batting runs over the three seasons prior, while playing below-average defense at third base (-15.7 2005-07 UZR, -2.9 career UZR/150 at third). Alex Rodriguez was 32 years old at the time he signed his behemoth deal. In the three years since, Arod has had a squeaky hip and accumulated a cumulative +14.4 WAR for the Yankees.

Albert Pujols, likewise, will be 31 when he hits free agency. He has out hit (+200.8 batting runs) and outfielded (+5.9 three-year UZR, albeit at first base) Alex Rodriguez in the three-year sample preceding his massive contract. Granted, Albert Pujols still has 2011 to "show what he's worth," but it's unlikely that Pujols, barring some unforeseen injury, will post a WAR below +7.0 next season, let alone one below +8.0. Keep in mind that Albert Pujols used to play outfield and third base (and was a capable fielder at both), but was moved to first base because of lingering elbow issues and a (wise) desire by the Cardinals' to preserve Pujols health.

For a better look at Pujols' value, check out his comparative value against Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Ryan Howard (who signed a 5-year, $125 million deal last season) courtesy of Fangraphs' WAR charts. First, let's look at single-season WAR by age (click to embiggen):


A look at this chart indicates just how talented Arod, who broke into the majors a few seasons earlier than Pujols, and Pujols truly are. Ryan Howard has not been better at the same age than either of Arod or Pujols, and Teixeira's best season (age 28) was the only season he was able to (barely) out-edge either, being a half WAR better than Arod, but a full 2 WAR behind Pujols. While Arod has a better WAR, by a count of 5-4-1, than Pujols in the age-overlapping seasons of play, Pujols has been the more consistent player, which has lead to him producing a better WAR total in their age-overlapping seasons despite playing the inferior position (first base, to Arod's third and short). From age 21 to 30, Alex Rodriguez was worth a whopping +74.5 WAR. Pujols, on the other hand, has been worth a cumulative +80.6 WAR in his age 21-30 seasons.

Pujols' consistency can also be reflected in his WAR chart by nth best season (click to embiggen):


Again, we find Alex Rodriguez has the better single-season WAR campaigns, but, on top of being more consistent, Pujols gets a -12.5 runs per season adjustment to his WAR bottom line due to being a first basemen. Pujols also blows Mark Teixeira (8-year/$180 million contract) and Ryan Howard (5-years/$125 million) out of the water.

Have no doubt, Albert Pujols has been a better hitter and at least a comparable player to Alex Rodriguez. Inflation dictates a $275-300 million contract is not a poor starting point for Pujols' agent to negotiate, and as David Gassko pointed out the other day, Pujols' expected dollar value on a ten-year contract comes out to roughly $275 million dollars (assuming a 0.6 WAR/season regression towards mediocrity on Pujols' part).

This noted, what can be said of Albert Pujols' prospective 2012 and beyond value. If Albert Pujols does indeed test the free agency market following the 2011 season, who might be his best suitors? let's break it down by team.

American League

• Yankees. Because they are the biggest market in baseball, you can never count the Yankees out. However, with the presence of Mark Teixeira for five more seasons past 2011 and the declining range of and extended commitment to aging players like Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, the Yankees seemingly have their first base/DH slot locked up for the near and extended future. That's not even to mention the possible need of the DH spot for the defensively inept, but potent bat of Jesus Montero (assuming he is not traded for a quality pitcher before the end of the season).
  
• Red Sox. While the Red Sox have seemingly set their eyes on extending newly acquired first baseman Adrian Gonzalez long term, David Ortiz's contract expires after 2011. While Big Papi has sold his share of jerseys and seats since coming to the Red Sox, helping lead them to two World Series titles, the aging slugger has shown signs of wear and decreasing bat speed. While you obviously would love to trot a guy like Albert Pujols out on the field given his average/above average defensive value, his elbow has been a concern in recent seasons. A move to DH to preserve the super-slugger's health would not be crazy. Unlike Jermaine Dye, Pujols probably would make the move away from playing defense if he is going to get paid the biggest bucks. The Red Sox do have a lot of long term money tied up already, however...
  
• Blue Jays. If the cost-controlled Adam Lind experiment fails, the Blue Jays might be in the market for a big slugging first basemen next season. The question is whether the Toronto market, not known for ticket sales of late, could afford the contract Pujols is looking for. With both Alex Rios and Vernon Wells gone, it's a distinct possibility.
  
• Orioles. Derrek Lee is around for only one more year, but Baltimore, like Toronto, is probably too small a market to realistically make a run at Pujols. The Orioles could barely afford to make an offer to Teixeira a few years back and their youngsters have not produced at a high enough clip to warrant taking on the long-term cost risk Pujols would bring.
  
• Rays. The Rays could barely afford Manny Ramirez at $2 million for 2012. Expect Andrew Friedman to continue to exploit the inefficiencies of the free agency market, rather than tie his entire team's payroll up upon one player.
  
• White Sox. Kenny Williams loves to mingle in the free agency market, but with three DHs on the team&mdaash;Carlos Quentin, Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko—the White Sox's ability to add Pujols is very slim. Of course, never count out Williams making some radical move like selling Carlos Quentin and sliding Adam Dunn back to right field. Usually, you'd say "wow, that's not good for your team's defense," but Quentin is Brad Hawpe-bad in the outfield...
  
• Twins. If they can barely afford Jim Thome, they can't afford Albert Pujols. Especially not with Justin Morneau lingering.
  
• Royals. The Royals probably have the biggest glut at first base/DH, including their stacked minor league hitters. Heck, Mike Moustakas might stick at third base simply because the Royals have nowhere else to put him!
  
• Tigers. Miguel Cabrera+Victor Martinez+payroll already well above $100 million = incredibly unlikely.
  
• Indians. Are the Indians even trying to trout out a major-league quality baseball team anymore? Travis Hafner still lingers at DH and while the team has a potential opening at first base, assuming Matt LaPorta can play left field, I doubt Mark Shapiro has the financial resources to make a run at Pujols.
  
• Athletics. This is Billy Beane we're talking about here. Even without the presence of Daric Barton and/Chris Carter, we'd probably see Beane sign Russell Branyan (and probably even Barry Bonds) before making a legitimate run at Pujols.
  
• Angels. If it wasn't for the "we are desperate, so we traded for Vernon Wells" bit that went down this offseason, the Angels might have been a legitimate suitor for Pujols.
  
• Rangers. As the Rangers missed out on Cliff Lee, they might have the cash lying around (though most of it was likely spent on Adrian Beltre). If the Chris Davis/Mitch Moreland experiment continues to fail, they might be in the running, assuming they move Michael Young, for an elite first basemen. I would guess the Rangers would target Prince Fielder first, however...
  
• Mariners. Pujols' defense is not good enough for Jack Zduriencik. In all seriousness, though, the team is going to give a long look at Justin Smoak and the DH market is always over-saturated with bargain buys.

National League*
*with no DH spot in the NL, Pujols' potential landing spots will be substantially more limited than in the AL

• Nationals. Not that the Nationals have been good at attracting marquis free market talent as of late (Jayson Werth excepted), but Adam LaRoche's multi-year contract will probably keep the Nationals out of the bidding. Even if the Nationals were to cut LaRoche to make room, I doubt they could sustain the payroll required to bring Pujols aboard.
  
• Mets. The Mets still have some big contracts handcuffing their financial flexibility. And with more pressing team needs (pitching) and the presence of young first baseman Ike Davis, Sandy Alderson almost certainly will sit on his hands when it comes to Pujols.
  
• Marlins. You're talking about the team that was too cheap to keep Dan Uggla and an owner recently accused of embezzling money. A team whose entire payroll just a few seasons ago was less than half the amount of money that Pujols is asking for annually. Count Jeff Loria and the Marlins out, if for no other reason than prospect Logan Morrison.
  
• Phillies. The Phillies were all too eager to overpay aging slugger Ryan Howard last season and with what it's paying Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt (to some extent), among others, the team can afford few of its residual needs, let alone luxuries, at this point.
  
• Braves. Two words: Freddie Freeman. The Braves are one of those rare teams that does not need the free agency market (or that Pujols guy).
  
• Cubs. Beyond just being a Cubs fan, I think that Albert Pujols would make a great fit for the Cubs for three reasons. First, payroll coming off the books: 2011 will be Kosuke Fukudome's last season in Cubbie Blue, while Carlos Pena's $10 million salary will most likely be gone as well. Carlos Zambrano will only have one season left with the Cubs (who are almost guaranteed to turn down his option), and Aramis Ramirez will likely also be a free agent after 2011. If the Cubs want, given only the lingering presence and lesson of Alfonso Soriano, they can probably afford Pujols. Second, the Cubs have long wanted to rekindle the elite power vacuum they've had since Sammy Sosa left long ago. The Cubs would likely prefer the power to come from a lefty, which is why they signed Pena this offseason and also why Prince Fielder makes a lot of sense for the Cubs. Still, Pujols is baseball's best hitter, who plays a position that will be open next season.
  
  This brings us to the third reason the Cubs might sign Pujols: Doing so means he is not a Cardinal. With Ryan Theriot now "on the right side of the rivalry," nothing would give Cubs fans more pleasure than to steal the Cardinals slugger. It would hardly make up for the scores of Cubs players who went to the Cardinals to experience prosperous careers or win a World Series ring (from Lou Brock to Bruce Sutter and everyone in between), but it would be a great start.
  
• Cardinals They currently "own" the rights to the super slugger and he's their player to lose. There's a million reasons why and how (and also why not) the team can and should (and should not) extend Pujols; those have been written ad nauseum elsewhere.
  
• Pirates. While signing Pujols would go a long way toward bringing respectability to a team that has been sub-.500 since Barry Bonds walked almost two decades ago, Neil Huntington's claim of the team's financial position probably means they cannot afford Pujols. The New York Times would probably disagree, however. Pujols would be a slight upgrade over Lyle Overbay.
• Reds. The Reds are currently within their "competing" window and have a good young core, but with the presence of their own elite first baseman, Joey Votto, for at least two seasons after 2011 at "below-market" prices (though $17 million for 2013 is definitely not "cheap"), the Reds are better suited to spend "Pujols money" elsewhere and on other needs. Especially if you believe in that Yonder Alonso fella.
  
• Astros. After years of unwise free agency moves that have deteriorated their minor league system, the Astros have finally committed themselves to rebuilding. Pujols would shatter those plans and could possibly ruin the franchise,. Do not count Ed Wade in here, at least not with cheap first baseman Brett Wallace around.
  
• Brewers. If the Brew Crew fails to retain Fielder, it is conceivable, given their somewhat comparable salary demands, that the Brewers might make a run at Pujols. The question will be whether the Brewers have the necessary cash. If they do, you'd imagine they'd just keep Fielder, a market-favorite, right?
  
• Giants. If the Giants truly want to retain Tim Lincecum long term, they are probably going to have to forgo Pujols. Besides, they are enamored with Aubrey Huff for the time being.
  
• Padres. The Padres recently shipped away their franchise slugger (Adrian Gonzalez) and are in rebuilding mode, hoping recently signed Brad Hawpe, and perhaps a healthy Kyle Blanks, might fill the hold that A-Gon left. I doubt that that Jed Hoyer has the financial flexibility to bring Pujols aboard, but given that PetCo park is substantially more home run-friendly to right-handed hitters than Busch Stadium and comparable in runs suppression for right-handed hitters overall, the Padres would take some solace in not having to worry about the Brian Giles effect settling in.
  
• Diamondbacks. Kevin Towers has always been a pitching-first GM, but in managing a team in hitter-friend Chase Field, perhaps he'll change his tune. While Busch Stadium has a home run park factor index of 77 for right-handed hitters (the worst in the NL and fourth worst in baseball), Chase Field has a home run park factor index of 121 for right-handed batters (tied for fifth-highest in baseball). That could add as many as 10 home runs to Pujols' season total and Towers has been on the lookout for some low-strikeout, high power output since taking over as the Diamondbacks' general manager.
  
• Rockies. With Carlos Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki and Jorge de la Rosa, among others, around for the long-term, the Rockies probably can't afford to kill their residual payroll "flexibility" with Pujols. Plus, has Todd Helton's contract even expired yet?
  
• Dodgers. Divorce can really handcuff your finances. Frank McCourt will not control sole ownership rights to the team anymore and I doubt he is going to let ex-wife Jaime take half of Pujols along with half his money. In all seriousness, the Dodgers can't afford Pujols and have James Loney lingering anyway.

In light of the above, I would expect the most likely "Pujols the free agent" suitors to be (in order): the Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Pirates, and Rangers. Of course, given that this is Albert Pujols we are talking about, many more teams might also get creative to make a run at baseball's best baseball player. You can read more of my thoughts on the subject here.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments.

2011 Draft Special: Pick #3- Buffalo Bills

If you're in a division with the New York Jets, New England Patriots, and yes, even the Miami Dolphins, you should pretty much just call it a day. Sure, maybe, just maybe you can squeeze a wild card birth in every decade or so (or go to the Superbowl four straight years in a row and lose all four times) but you're pretty much the Baltimore Orioles or Vanderbilt of the AFC East.

I apologize for being repetitive but these bottom teams are at the bottom for a reason- piss poor defensive play and a few cogs missing in the offense. Like the Denver Broncos, the Bills have some core, young pieces already there but haven't quite put it together yet.

The skill positions on the offense are there but they need an offensive line to hold the pieces together. And trading away Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters doesn't help you any either. The strength of the Bills offense is their running game which is led by Fred Jackson. Every time Jackson gets the opportunity to start/ is the main back, he does awesome things. Now Jackson isn't a legitimate number one back like Adrian Peterson is, but C.J. Spiller is a fantastic complement to Jackson if the Bills can figure out a better way to get Spiller integrated into the offense. While Jackson has shown he can carry the rock 20+ times a game and be great, I can foresee a the Bills backs be the type of guys DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are- or better yet like an improved Pierre Thomas/ Reggie Bush deal.

Stevie Johnson has stepped up his game to be a legitimate number one wide out, but he was very streaky in 2010 and the Bills need another receiver to compliment Johnson- a possession guy or tight end or something!

Johnson had great chemistry with Harvard grad Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don't think Fitzpatrick will ever be in the "elite" category, or as Mike Lombardi would say- a blue chipper- but I think a Matt Cassel/Joe Flacco ceiling is in his future. And with that running game that he has, that's not an insult to Fitzpatrick. But with that being said, Fitzpatrick is not a franchise quarterback. But hey, the Giants won a Superbowl with Eli Manning and the Ravens won a Superbowl with Trent Dilfer. I think Fitzpatrick is the quintessential "game manager".

You know, come to think about it, this Bills offense has the potential to be the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs. A great running back tandem, an effective but not overpowering quarterback, and a great wide out. While this type of offense can be effective and can win playoffs games, a team should never be content with this style of play and should work to get better. At the same time, when your defense was as bad as the Bills defense was in 2010, it's acceptable to be content for a few years while you build up your defense.

I have a personal mentality that the first two areas a team should focus on are the offensive and defensive lines. And maybe because I grew up around Chicago football, I personally believe that in order to build up your team to win championships you have to build up your defense. The Bills have some great parts on defense with a healthy Paul Posluszny... OK they really only have Posluszny, so I would go defense with their number three overall pick.

According to Scout's Inc, there are five guys graded the highest with "97" and I have the Broncos and Panthers taking two of them. There is Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green, LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson, and OLB Von Miller from Texas A&M left. I think the Bills could have a fun looking offense with Johnson and A.J. Green but that defense looked awful and offense looked pretty darn good most of the time. So if I have to choose between a shut down corner and an elite outside linebacker, I choose the cornerback ten out of ten times.

Therefore, with the third pick in the draft, the Buffalo Bills select Patrick Peterson.

Bills's needs:

-Everything except running back. I haven't seen a lot of Gabbert live or in highlights or really anywhere so I can not say for certain he will be a franchise quarterback, but if the Bills don't select Gabbert, they should stay away from QB's for the rest of the draft.

The Bears Wide Receivers From The 2010-2011 Season

Before the season started everyone thought with the new Bears pass happy offense orchestrated by Mike Martz that Jay Cutler would throw for a ridiculous amount of yards on the season spread out to a few receivers. This was because the Bears had no number one receiver so it seemed feasible that the Bears could have a few receivers hitting the 1,000 yards plateau on the season. With the regular season in the books let’s take a look at how the Bears receivers did stack up this season. Coming into this season we didn’t know who would emerge as the Bears number one wide receiver. Some thought it could be Devin Hester, Jonny Knox, and even Devin Aromashodu.

Well Knox emerged as the Bears number one receiver with 960 yards. He had 100 targets and averaged 18.8 yards per catch. He ranked 21st overall among wide receivers at the position. Not very good in the Martz pass happy offense. Knox showed this season he is never going to be a DeSean Jackson who ranked 12th among wide receivers with 1056 yards or Mike Wallace who ranked 5th among WR with 1257 yards. He is not a complete wide out like either of the mentioned elite players. Knox showed he is a one dimensional player who can run the deep route. This makes him a good second receiver, but not a number one.

Earl Bennett surprised most people by his strong play this season. Before the season started Sexy Rexy and I both agreed that Bennett was a good third receiver because he is solely a possession receiver, but he performs that job well. He emerged as a favorite target of Jay Cutler building off of the Vanderbilt connection and had 46 catches on 70 targets for 561 yards. Bennett came on in the 2nd half of the season, so his numbers next year should be better over the entire season.

When Mike Martz came he said he envisioned Devin Hester in a 3rd down role Lovie Smith quickly rejected that. However, in the long run Martz got what he wanted because it was best for the team. Hester is not a receiver and will never be a good one. He is fine on 3rd downs, and as a backup, but not as a Bears top three receiver. Hester caught 40 passes on way too many targets of 73 for 475 yards.

Two other Bears that were big in the receiving game were not wide receivers- tight end Greg Olsen and running back Matt Forte. Olsen caught 41 passes on 70 targets for 404 yards. Forte had slightly better numbers of 51 receptions on 70 targets for 547 yards with an average of 10.7 per yard.

My love for Devin Aromashodu is well documented. I thought he would emerge as the number one receiver if the Bears gave him the chance. The Bears wanted DA to play the slot and there is some controversy if he just wasn’t good in the slot or if he didn’t want to play it, but either way he lost the little respect the coaching staff had for him and got buried deeper on the bench. His chance of ever being good as a Bear is over so they may as well cut him so he has a chance to sign on with another team before his career is over before it ever got started. That makes me sad because he has tremendous talent.

Thus, the Bears have very good number two and three wide receivers in Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett. All they are missing is that number one receiver which hopefully they will find in free agency. That is a recap of the Bears wide receivers from the 2010-2011 season.

Richard Dent Finally Makes It Into Canton!

Congratulations to former Bears defensive end and Superbowl 20 MVP Richard Dent to finally getting past the second to last hall of fame cut and making it past the last cut.

Richard Dent is one of the games best defensive ends of all time and is sixth all time in sacks.

2011 Draft Special: Pick #2- Denver Broncos

I feel sorry for you Broncos fans, I do. Josh McDaniels ruined your franchise. While he also might have single-handedly saved it by drafting Tim Tebow in the first round in 2010, trading away top tiered talent in both Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler (I don't care what you think about Jay Cutler/ how you view him in light of the 2011 NFC Championship game, he IS a top tiered talent).

In 2010, the Denver Broncos led the NFL in yards allowed totaling 6,253 yards in the NFL which equals an average of 391 yards per game. They also led the NFL in points allowed at 471 averaging 29.4 points per game. Their defense also allowed 154 rushing yards a game- which was second to last. Needless to say Denver's defense sucks.

Now 2009's sack leader Elvis Dumervil missing an entire season can have a dramatic effect on a defense. But losing one single player shouldn't have *that* drastic of an effect. Even with Dumervil, this is still a bad defense.

With the first pick in the draft the Carolina Panthers selected DT Nick Fairley. The two best defensive players on the board is DE Da'Quan Bowers from Clemson and CB Patrick Peterson from LSU. There's nothing like having a great shut down corner in any defense and not only is Champ Bailey not the same great player as he was in his prime, but I fear he'll be out of the league within a few years. But with that being said when both a defensive lineman and a cornerback rating the same (97 according to Scout's Inc) I'll take the defensive lineman every day of the week.

Sure, Denver also needs offensive players but they are pretty set at the skill positions. They have an elite, Pro Bowl number one wide receiver in Illinois' Brandon Lloyd (albeit he's a HUGE injury risk) and first round draft pick WR Demaryius Thomas, a number one draft pick (and a guy who looked really good in the second half of the season) in Knowshown Moreno and the best player ever in Tim Tebow. In all seriousness, Tebow was a great college quarterback and a first round draft pick so he at least he deserves a year or two to see if he develops into a great quarterback like he very well could.

Due to the Brandon Marshall trade with Miami last off season, Denver has the 34th and 47th pick in the second round. Either UCLA's safety Rahim Moore (ranked 31 according to Scout's Inc.) or Baylor's defensive tackle Phil Taylor (ranked 32 according to Scout's Inc.) is bound to fall to Denver's 34th pick seeing as normally draft experts top 32 players do not all go within the first round. As for Denver's 47th pick, (something you'll hear me preach throughout this entire series) the Broncos should draft an offensive lineman to improve the skill players.

Denver's Needs

- Offensive Lineman

Wanna help Tebow perform better? Give him time to throw and lanes to run. That or a better run blocking offensive line will help Moreno run better giving more options for Tebow to preform better

- Defense

Even if the Broncos draft defensive players with their first two or three picks and getting Dumervil healthy, Denver is weak EVERYWHERE on defense.

Mega Oscar Podcast Up With The Hardball Times' Jeffrey Gross

Yes Mr. Gross goes by a better name among you loyal Game of Inches fans: David "MVP" Eckstein, but I figured I would piggy back off of DME's new found celebrity in case people were typing his name into Google. This podcast is solely about movies in 2010 and the 2011 Oscars so if you were hoping for any sports related analysis, my apologies.

You can listen to
Part One here
Part Two here and
Part Three here

If you want to download these or any of GOI's podcast's via iTunes just follow these instructions. Go to the iTunes store and type "Game Of Inches" into it. If you don't see the GOI logo (the one with the fuzzy black background and bright "GOI" lettering on it) then go to the left where it says "Filter By Media Type" and click on "Podcasts". You should see two logos. The second one has the newer podcasts.
____________

To see the mock baseball draft Mr. Gross and I participated in as well as all of Mr. Gross' fantasy baseball advice and his xWHIP calculator go to thehardballtimes.com/fantasy

2011 Draft Special: Pick #1- Carolina Panthers

When you have the number one overall pick, no matter what sport or draft you are in, you take THE best player in the draft, independent of position.

While Jimmy Claussen looked awful in 2010, it's hard to throw to receivers who can't run routes or catch passes. It's even harder to complete passes when you're on your back before you attempt the throw. I'm not 100% convinced that Jimmy Claussen can't turn in to, at the very minimum, a Joe Flacco type quarterback. Claussen was highly rated coming out of high school and college and I trust any quarterback that learns how to run a pro style offense from Charlie Weis (see e.g., Tom Brady, Matt Cassel).

With that being said, if Andrew Luck was in this draft the Panthers should have drafted Luck without hesitation. I mean, look what Sam Bradford did with a bottom five receiving corps and a sub par offensive line.

But sadly, Luck is not in this draft. So instead, the Panthers are left with defensive tackle Nick Fairley from Auburn. This is like the 2009 Lions being "stuck" with Donkey Kong Suh. While I'm sure it's not fun to see your franchise quarterback go back to Stanford and then watch John Harbuagh's 49ers take a nose dive in the next NFL season played so *they* get Luck; however, Fairley is not a half bad consolation prize. Not at all.

Last year the Carolina Panthers had a top ten pass defense, but where they struggled was with the run. According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers ranked 8th against the pass but 22nd against the run. Fairley is a great big body to help close gaps in opponents offensive lines. That and a great defensive coordinator turned head coach in Ron Rivera will help this Panthers defense become much better than you think in 2011/ the next NFL season played.

Last year, the Panthers offensive line ranked 27th in run blocking and 31st in pass blocking defense. That line will immediately improve with a healthy Jeff Otah but another offensive lineman to complement Otah will also improve the worst ranked offense in 2010.

The Panthers traded away their second round pick so after pick one they don't pick again until pick 65. At that point, there is no need to draft another quarterback, because chances are that player will be no better than Claussen. It would be helpful just to pick the best available again. Like I said earlier, when you only win one game- you need EVERYTHING.

Carolina's Needs:

- Defensive End

Carolina ranked 20th in sacks last year. Losing Julius Peppers tends to do that to a D-line

- Wide Receiver

While I don't think Steve Smith has completely fallen off of the face of the Earth, he's clearly not performing as well as he used to. I mean, look how well he did with crappy Jake Delhomme throwing to him? Carolina either needs another receiver to complement Smith or another receiver to replace Smith completely.

-Offensive Line

The best way to improve an offense is to improve the line

-Linebackers

Look at Rivera's systems in both Chicago and San Diego- the system runs through (no pun intended) the linebackers. I have a feeling Rivera can pull a Bill Belichick and find linebackers off of waiver to fit his system, but this team has holes everywhere on defense

2011 Draft Special: 32 Teams In 32 Days

It has come to my attention that this blog is extremely Chicago centric. It makes sense considering the four Game Of Inches authors live in Chicago and the teams we mainly watch and root for are Chicago teams. So in attempt to broaden our horizons as well as inform you, the reading public, we are going to start a 32 post series (I guess a 33 post series if you include this introductory post) about every NFL team and what their draft needs are.

Enjoy!

Who Deserved The 2010 Defensive Player Of The Year?

EDITOR'S NOTE: The metrics WPA and EPA are explained here

Recently, Troy Polamalu was named Defensive Player of the Year. While the advanced statistics show that Clay Matthews was not even close to the best linebacker (guys like Brian Urlacher, Lamaar Woodley, and James Harrison have shown to have better numbers) you could watch him play to know how amazing he was in 2010. Before this post, I thought Matthews should have won the award over Polamalu. While it is extremely hard to use traditional statistics to compare a safety to a linebacker, we'll see what the advanced metrics have to say.

WPA
Matthews- 1.34
Polamalu- 2.41

EPA
Matthews- 50.7
Polamalu- 59.1

Unfortunately, Football Outsiders does not use advanced metrics to evaluate individual defensive players so I'm sad to say Advanced NFL Stats statistics are the only metrics I have to go off of to compare a safety to a linebacker.

Here's who had the best statistics per every defensive position:

WPA
2.65- Lawrence Timmons (PIT)- Linebacker
2.54- DeAngelo Hall (WAS)- Cornerback
2.41- Troy Polamalu (PIT)- Safety
2.01- Jared Allen (MIN)-Defensive End
1.58- Darnell Dockett (ARI)- Defensive Tackle

I truly think DeAngelo Hall has such a high WPA was because of the "DeAngelo Hall effect". The effect, coined by The 'Bright' One and myself, actually refers to the effect that a cornerback is so bad that he gets thrown on a lot and therefore his chance of getting an interception increases and therefore gets a lot of interceptions (see: his 4 interception game against Jay Cutler). But that same logic applies to why Hall would get so many tackles and thus increase his WPA.

EPA
79.1- Justin Tuck (NYG)- Defensive End
69.6- Lawrence Timmons (PIT)- Linebacker
63.6- Terrell Thomas (NYG)- Cornerback
59.1- Troy Polamalu (PIT)- Safety
49.0- Darnell Dockett (ARI)- Defensive Tackle

According to these numbers, the true Defensive Player of the Year should have been Polamalu's teammate Lawrence Timmons who put up better numbers than Polamalu in both WPA and EPA. However, considering the numbers linebackers get compared to other positions, I'm assuming it's because of the nature of the position where they get to defend the pass as well as the run versus a position like a safety which mainly defends the pass only.

However, Polamalu was by far and away the best safety versus Clay Matthews who was nowhere close to being the best linebacker. So if the choice was really between Matthews and Polamalu, the football writers unequivocally made the correct decision. And truth be told, they probably did make the correct one. But if you ask me, now that I have written this post, who actually deserved the award was Lawrence Timmons.

Lil' Wayne's Green And Yellow

I'm the biggest Weezy hater there is. I think he's overrated and while I think he has talent, I think he under utilizes it because he doesn't write anything down. But that being said, I actually like this song. Now as a Bears fan I hate the team he's rooting for but as a rap fan I enjoy this.



I will say this though, he's from New Orleans, how is he not a Saints fan so why is he a Packers fan? If you're from an area that doesn't have a sports team then it's understandable that you're a fan of a public team (i.e. Cowboys, Packers, Steelers) but he's from New Orleans- a city that DOES have an NFL team in it. Way to be loyal buddy.

New Game Of Inches Facebook Page

Have you ever been to a house party and towards the end, where the party starts dying down, that one dude walks in with a 12 pack of beer and wants to "get down". Well that's us. Although currently GOI has a facebook page, it was created before there was any "like" buttons and before facebook evolved for the better. In fact, our facebook page is so old that when we decided to change from our boring, generic, "Ooo-we-want-to-get-this-blog-rolling-right-away format to our hip new format, we were not able to put a link to our facebook page. That's how old our facebook page is.

You can see our new and hip page here and please hit "like" so we can change our URL (as opposed to the generic one facebook has now randomly assigned us).

With our new facebook page we can have live chats, post threads instead of just a one block opinion and have a center to see all of our videos and pictures.

So come on by and check us out!

Can The Bears Just Draft Jadeveon Clowney?

Today is National Signing Day where top high school recruits in football get to officially sign on the dotted line and choose the school where they will be abusing co-eds... I mean opposing conference teams for the next 3-4 years. Jadeveon Clowney is the top recruit this year, hailing from South Carolina at a Lebron-ish 6 foot 6, 250 pounds and runs a 4.60 40 yard dash. He played tail back and defensive end in high school and projects as the next Julius Peppers. Based on this video of him from high school, he looks better that Peppers already, and may be ready for the NFL as we speak. Too bad he has to play 3 years in college, cause I would be all for the Bears using that 30th pick on this freak of nature. OMG just look at this!

Manny Being Manny

Johhny Damon: Will I play 162 games? Probably not. But I've learned how to keep my body healthy

Manny Ramirez: Lets do it (looking at Damon). You play 100 and I play 62. Thats all we gotta do

Zing!

US Government Hates Sports

Many of us sports fans use the free streaming sports websites to watch a lot of our sports. For me, I dont even have Comcast Sportsnet Chicago at my apartment, which broadcasts most Chicago sports. But I can always find the hockey or basketball game streaming live and watch it on my computer as I study. Well, this is no more the case. Today, Homeland Security seized most of the major servers hosting streaming sports. These include the big boppers channelsurfing.net, atdhe.net, firstrow.net, and ilemi.net. Sure, there do exist some other small servers such as vodkasports, but only having one or two sources is not reliable when it comes to watching a game, and I am sure these will be extinguished as well.

However, experience has shown us that the internet will get it's power back one way or another. Other sources will arise. Other methods of distribution will come about. People will get their sports back. Prohibition didnt last and neither will this. Unfortunately for the time being, I'm going to have to smooch to other people to watch a stinking basketball game. Thanks for nothing government!

Funny joke I heard on Comedy Central:

"Why is the government spending precious time and money investigating steroids in baseball? It's not enough that people have no money, job, or home, now we're gonna make baseball less fun!"

QB Rankings

This is the fourth part of Game Of Inches four part ranking series. You can read our Part Three Running Back rankings here, our Part Two Wide Receiver rankings here, and our Part One Tight End rankings here.

RULES
1) This is not a fantasy ranking, this is an actual skill set ranking.
2) We said that if we had to draft players to play one game tomorrow, who would we choose. Now past and future performance was taken into account as well, but we felt this was the best way to accurately rank skill set of current players.
3) We only ranked 32 players- one from each team. The group used our best judgment to determine which was the teams best player to rank.
4) This is assuming all players are 100% healthy
5) Because we are ranking based off of talent alone, we assumed every running back on our list was playing behind the best pass blocking offensive line and playing with the same wide receivers.

QUICK NOTES
- I probably have gone through at least ten different changes before I settled on this list
- I originally had Aaron Rodgers ranked 6th because I thought he couldn't come up in big games when his team needed him to. He proved me wrong.
- You can thank me for putting Tyler Thigpen as Miami's quarterback. In my head I knew I should have used Chad Henne but a) I truly think Thigpen is Miami's best quarterback and b) I really think Thigpen will be the Dolphins QB in 2011
- I originally had Matt Schaub ranked really low, but on a recent podcast Cubsfan convinced me to put him higher.
- Another ranking where Cubsfan disappoints me again with his low low Bears ranking. I mean, I'm down on Jay Cutler but you're telling me Joe Flacco and David Garrard would do better on this Chicago team!?
- Except for Cubsfan's absurd rankings of a few players (ie Cutler, Garrard), all three of our lists are essentially the same

And here... we... GO!

(click to enlarge)