Wishful Thinking: Manny Parra In Seattle

With Cliff Lee's recent injury (and five game suspension) and Erik Bedard's checkered injury past, the Mariners are rumored to be looking to add a starter. MLB Trade Rumors mentions a few names that may be available: Nate Robertson, Brian Tallet, and Manny Para. Of them and the available free agents (including Washburn and Pedro), Parra seems to be the most interesting name.

A 6'3" Lefty with a low 90s fastball and three other pitches, Parra was drafted in the 26th round of the 2001 baseball draft by the Milwaukee Brewers. Through his first 200 innings of play between A, AA and AAA ball over 2006 and 2007, Parra toyed with minor league hitters, posting a K/9 of 8.33 or higher at each level and a BB/9 under 3 at AA and AAA. Parra also kept the ball on the ground well, posting HR/9 rates below 0.40 once promoted to double A.

Parra got his first taste of the majors in late 2007. There, he flashed an 8.89 K/9 over a minute 26.1 IP sample size, but it came paired with a then-uncharacteristic 4.10 BB/9 and a 32.9% GB rate. Due to some Clayton Kershaw-like luck (3.1% HR/FB), Parra managed to keep his numbers respectable (3.76 ERA, 4.52 xFIP).

Parra nabbed a full time gig in 2008, pitching 166 major league innings with a slightly above average 4.39 ERA. Though Parra's wildness remained high (4.07 BB/9) and his strikeouts tumbled some (7.97 K/9), his groundball rate soared past the 50% mark (51.6% GB rate, 1.94 GB/FB ratio). This led to a 3.85 xFIP and the promise of future success; especially if Parra could trim down the walk rate (which his minor league numbers indicated was reasonable).

Parra entered 2009 as a sleeper on many draft lists, including my own. He profiled similarly to Ubaldo Jimenez: big strikeouts, lots of groundballs and pretty wild. However, whereas Ubaldo was being drafted much higher and whereas Ubaldo had never had any semblance of control entering 2009, Parra at least had AA and AAA numbers to back up a reasonable expectation of less free passes in 2009. Of course, as any 2009 Parra owner could tell you, it just was not destined to be.

Parra's walk rate soared in 2009, jumping up to 4.95 per nine. While the groudball rate was still promising (48.1%), hitters were making more contact with his pitches and the strikeout rate fell a tad more (7.46 K/9). Despite throwing less than 150 innings in 2009, Parra was 15th in total walks issued on the season (Brewers fans should note that the #1 and #3 pitchers on the list of who issued the most walks in 2009 were Doug Davis and Yovani Gallardo).

Parra is slated to begin the 2010 season in Triple-A Nashville. Like several other pitchers, Parra has loads of potential being hindered by lack of command and he's running out of options. What would happen if the Mariners were to acquire him?

Let's use 161 IP as the baseline, approximately how many innings the average fifth starter can expect to accumulate over the course of a season (and also of which will give us nice numbers to use in the analysis). Using Manny Parra's career numbers (7.83 K/9, 4.44 BB/9, 48.7% GB%), he profiles as a 4.23 xFIP pitcher. In moving from the AL to the NL, The Hardball Times found that, on average, a pitcher's K/9 rate would rise by 0.57 per nine and that their ERA would fall by 0.41 runs. Accounting for these factors, Parra would have a prospective 4.64 ERA and 7.26 K/9. Over 161 innings, that would result in 83 runs allowed.

Next, we need to accord for park factors. According to Baseball Reference's multi-year park data, Safe Co. Field has suppressed offense by 4%. This would bring Parra's 83 runs allowed total down to to 79.68.

Finally, we need to account for defense. Last season, the Mariners had the absolute best defense in baseball, worth +1.5 WAR compared to the next best fielding team (the Rays). In 2010, the team looks about the same with the subtraction of Adrian Beltre (+14.3 FRAR) and addition of Chone Figgins (projected +6.5 FRAR). If we hold the rest of the team's defense constant (you can adjust this if you think the Mariners will be better/worse defensively in 2010 compared to 2009), the team would prevent +0.53 runs per inning compared to the league average defense. In other words, over 161 innings, the Mariners defense alone would prevent 8.56 runs.

Subtract this from Parra's league and park adjusted runs allowed total and we get 71.12 runs allowed with a 7.26 K/9. Over 161 innings, Parra would then post a 4.00 ERA with 130 K's to boot. Not too shabby for a 5th starter. Just imagine what would happen if he cut down the Edwin Jackson-like walk rate.