Gaines Adams Is Dead
*NOTE: the views in this post reflect only the opinions of the author and absolutely do not reflect the views of the other two authors and the blog as a whole*
Further proof that Jerry Angelo is retarded for trading for Adams to begin with.
Before the trading deadline, Angelo gave away a second round pick for the former first rounder turned bust Gaines Adams from the Tampa Bay Bucs. Now I do not intentionally mean to make light out of another person's death and my deepest condolences go out to Adams' family and friends, but from my perspective as a Bears fan- this blows. Not only do the Bears not have a first or second round draft pick in this upcoming draft (not that the Bears would have drafted anybody useful anyway) but we don't even have any shitty players to go along with giving up our draft picks. As a Bears fan, this is just more shit to pile on to the garbage that is the Chicago Bears.
Further proof that Jerry Angelo is retarded for trading for Adams to begin with.
Before the trading deadline, Angelo gave away a second round pick for the former first rounder turned bust Gaines Adams from the Tampa Bay Bucs. Now I do not intentionally mean to make light out of another person's death and my deepest condolences go out to Adams' family and friends, but from my perspective as a Bears fan- this blows. Not only do the Bears not have a first or second round draft pick in this upcoming draft (not that the Bears would have drafted anybody useful anyway) but we don't even have any shitty players to go along with giving up our draft picks. As a Bears fan, this is just more shit to pile on to the garbage that is the Chicago Bears.
Best 2 minutes in NBA history
Stephen Jackson had himself one hell of a 2 minute stretch. He managed to put up 10 shots in those 2 minutes, made 5. Plus had time to assist on another 3 buckets. Damn. He also had a +21 rating in those 2 minutes. Haven't seen that type of a performance since Jon Scheyer back in Glenbrooke North
The Most Popular Sports In America
DME and I recently were having a debate about the most popular sports in America. We were talking about TBO's recent article about the 13 cities with 4 pro major sports teams. DME wondered out loud why hockey was considered the 4th major sport because he thought more people attended/ followed other sports like golf and tennis over hockey. This prompted an argument between DME and a girl that was sitting near us about the merits and love of hockey. Well, I decided to look it up, what are the most popular sports in America. Do Americans really like golf and tennis or maybe even NASCAR over hockey?
Rank- League- Average Attendance Per Game of League
1) NASCAR- 200,000 - 300,000
2) NFL- 67,738
3) FBS- 46,971
4) MLB- 32,717
5) MLS- 16,464
6) NBA- 17,394
7) NHL- 17, 265
8) AFL- 12,415
9) WNBA- 8,039
10) NCAAB- 5,277
However, fan attendance doesn't tell the entire story. 1) A lot of fan will watch games on TV, so it's entirely possible that the sport may have a high attendance but low popularity elsewhere- or vice versa 2) Some sports (i.e. the new Cowboys Stadium) may just have bigger arenas than other sports
Luckily, a Harris Poll helps to tell the entire story. They polled people to see what there favorite sports to help determine what the most popular sports in America are (click to enlarge):
Therefore, the most popular sports in America looks a bit different than attendance numbers:
1) NFL
2) MLB
3) FBS
4) NASCAR
5) NHL
6) NBA
6) NCAAB
6) PGA
9) MLS
9) PBA
9) Horse Racing
So now back to the original argument that sparked this post: DME was wrong about the immense popularity of hockey in America. Hockey is MUCH more popular than either golf or tennis and absolutely should be considered one of the top 4 in America.
Sources:
-Harris Poll
-Sports Attendance
-NAASCAR info
Rank- League- Average Attendance Per Game of League
1) NASCAR- 200,000 - 300,000
2) NFL- 67,738
3) FBS- 46,971
4) MLB- 32,717
5) MLS- 16,464
6) NBA- 17,394
7) NHL- 17, 265
8) AFL- 12,415
9) WNBA- 8,039
10) NCAAB- 5,277
However, fan attendance doesn't tell the entire story. 1) A lot of fan will watch games on TV, so it's entirely possible that the sport may have a high attendance but low popularity elsewhere- or vice versa 2) Some sports (i.e. the new Cowboys Stadium) may just have bigger arenas than other sports
Luckily, a Harris Poll helps to tell the entire story. They polled people to see what there favorite sports to help determine what the most popular sports in America are (click to enlarge):
Therefore, the most popular sports in America looks a bit different than attendance numbers:
1) NFL
2) MLB
3) FBS
4) NASCAR
5) NHL
6) NBA
6) NCAAB
6) PGA
9) MLS
9) PBA
9) Horse Racing
So now back to the original argument that sparked this post: DME was wrong about the immense popularity of hockey in America. Hockey is MUCH more popular than either golf or tennis and absolutely should be considered one of the top 4 in America.
Sources:
-Harris Poll
-Sports Attendance
-NAASCAR info
What's Your Favorite Inglourious Basterds Line?
So I'm on an Inglourious Basterds binge and can't stop quoting it. There are so many great lines from it like:
Sgt. Werner Rachtman
-"Everybody in the German army has heard if Hugo Stiglitz"
Lt. Aldo Raine (Brad Pitt)
-"You probably heard we ain't in the prisoner-takin' business; we in the killin' Nazi business. And cousin, Business is a-boomin'"
-"We got a German here who wants to die for his country! Oblige him!"
-"Bonjourno"
-"We're Going To Be Doing One Thing And One Thing Only, Killing Nazis"
Hans Landa/ The Jew Hunter (Christoph Waltz)
-"That's a bingo!"
-"What Is That Phrase
-Everything he says in the opening scene with Monsieur LaPadite
So what's your favorite?
Sgt. Werner Rachtman
-"Everybody in the German army has heard if Hugo Stiglitz"
Lt. Aldo Raine (Brad Pitt)
-"You probably heard we ain't in the prisoner-takin' business; we in the killin' Nazi business. And cousin, Business is a-boomin'"
-"We got a German here who wants to die for his country! Oblige him!"
-"Bonjourno"
-"We're Going To Be Doing One Thing And One Thing Only, Killing Nazis"
Hans Landa/ The Jew Hunter (Christoph Waltz)
-"That's a bingo!"
-"What Is That Phrase
-Everything he says in the opening scene with Monsieur LaPadite
So what's your favorite?
Lane Kiffin Did Nothing Wrong
With the recent departure of Pete Carrol from USC to coach for the Seattle Seahawks, USC went ahead and tried to hire a great coach who can recruit top tier athletes and knows his X's and O's. But Nick Saban liked the job he had so they hired Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin instead. Kiffin is a very outspoken and charismatic guy (also "charisma" in NFL coaching terms means you're less monotone and boring than Lovie Smith and Bill Belichick) but also has comes with a bit of baggage. He had a tumultuous short career as a head coach under Al Davis (but that's in the contract of any head coach who plays under Davis, so that's understandable) and a rocky career at Tennessee leading them to an average record and claims of breaking NCAA rules.
But he planned to start things different at USC. At his press conference yesterday, he said he wanted to do things "the right way". This was an obvious reference to his head coaching days at Tennessee and Oakland. But of course, right after that, a reporter "informed" Kiffin that Kiffin's head recruiter, Ed Orgeron, had contacted all new Tennessee recruits not to go to class because if they did, according to NCAA rules, they would be committed to Tennessee and would not be eligible for USC if they so desired to go there. This seemed contradictory to what Kiffin said at his press conference when he told reporters that he would not contact recruits, but if recruits contacted him, he would gladly and honestly answer all of there questions. Sure, this was a pretty dumb thing to say to begin with, but it's not wrong.
First of all, it is not against NCAA rules to do what Kiffin and Orgeron did. Kiffin himself could have called all of his top tier recruits while he was on the plane from Knoxville to SoCal to tell them not to go to class. But what I think people do have a problem with is that Kiffin has a history of being slimy and scuzzy and then he says he won't do something while his staff goes around and does do the very thing Kiffin said he wouldn't. While if you technically dissect what Kiffin said, he said he personally wouldn't contact players and he didn't, Ed Orgeron did. But I think it's clear when he says "I won't contacts players" he means him and his new staff. So yes, his words were still pretty dumb and he should have just said "I'm happy to be here, this is my dream job" and just be done with it. But I'm not going to berate and chastise the man for saying one pretty dumb statement.
Next, the reality of the situation is that college recruits go to schools because of the program and because of the head coach, not because of the actual school they're attending. You think Arrelious Benn wanted to play in Champaign, Illinois? You think Lawrence, Kansas and it's University are all that great? You think Michael Crabtree went to Texas Tech for the education and the lovely sights of Lovett? No, these athletes come to these schools because of the head coaches and the programs. I've heard Illini football players tell me that Ron Zook is the coolest whiteboy they've ever met and that factored into their decision to come to Illinois. Kiffin's top tier recruits did not come to Tennessee because of the University, they came because of Lane Kiffin. That's why when John Calipari went from Memphis to Kentucky this year, John Wall didn't say, "Shoot, now I'm at Kentucky without the man that recruited me." No, he hoped in the next flight to Kentucky with Calipari (probably).
And think about these players. I'm sure the vast majority of high schoolers getting recruited would have much preferred to go play at USC where they'll at least play in a bowl game, as opposed to Tennessee. I'm sure these kids are thrilled to be playing at a school that has a better football outlook than Tennessee, a better education than Tennessee, and play in better whether than at Tennessee. And if the kids truly did want to play in Knoxville, nothing's stopping them. Orgeron didn't force these kids to not go to class. He simple told them that if they did, they're absolutely committed to Tennessee. Whereas if they didn't, they still would be eligible to play at either school.
And not only is USC a better gig for the players, it's a better gig for Kiffin as well. And this USC job became open much later than most other jobs because of the lengthier season of the NFL and USC's head coach took a job that may have been inconvenient for the college ranks, but was plenty convenient for the pro ranks. Thus, USC had to scramble to find a new head coach. And if I'm Lane Kiffin, and I'm offered one of the premier jobs in the FBS, why would I not take it? Kiffin owes more loyalty to USC than he ever owes or would owe to Tennessee. Players transfer all the time and nobody cares, but when a coach does it, it's blasphemy. Brian Kelly (although he took a lot of shit for this) went from the nothing school of Cincinnati to another top tiered job- Notre Dame. (Although Kelly took his job before his team went to play in a BCS bowl game which THERE is the dick move). But Kiffin didn't screw over his team. I'm sure the school is upset that it's top talent is going to USC and not Tennessee, but Kiffin still gives the school plenty of time to recruit. And it's not Kiffin's fault that "his dream job" was open so late. Think about this. If the CFO of Apple gets offered the CEO/President position of say Microsoft and he instantly takes it, is he a jerk for taking a bigger and better job? No. So why are football head coaches treated any differently?
Point is, on the surface it may appear that Kiffin is a jerk. But ask yourself why you feel that way. Kiffin did what any rational person would do. Hell, if you were in Kiffin's shoes, you would do the exact same thing. While maybe he shouldn't have said anything about bringing ethics and doing things right at USC, his actions still tell me and should tell you, that he did nothing wrong.
But he planned to start things different at USC. At his press conference yesterday, he said he wanted to do things "the right way". This was an obvious reference to his head coaching days at Tennessee and Oakland. But of course, right after that, a reporter "informed" Kiffin that Kiffin's head recruiter, Ed Orgeron, had contacted all new Tennessee recruits not to go to class because if they did, according to NCAA rules, they would be committed to Tennessee and would not be eligible for USC if they so desired to go there. This seemed contradictory to what Kiffin said at his press conference when he told reporters that he would not contact recruits, but if recruits contacted him, he would gladly and honestly answer all of there questions. Sure, this was a pretty dumb thing to say to begin with, but it's not wrong.
First of all, it is not against NCAA rules to do what Kiffin and Orgeron did. Kiffin himself could have called all of his top tier recruits while he was on the plane from Knoxville to SoCal to tell them not to go to class. But what I think people do have a problem with is that Kiffin has a history of being slimy and scuzzy and then he says he won't do something while his staff goes around and does do the very thing Kiffin said he wouldn't. While if you technically dissect what Kiffin said, he said he personally wouldn't contact players and he didn't, Ed Orgeron did. But I think it's clear when he says "I won't contacts players" he means him and his new staff. So yes, his words were still pretty dumb and he should have just said "I'm happy to be here, this is my dream job" and just be done with it. But I'm not going to berate and chastise the man for saying one pretty dumb statement.
Next, the reality of the situation is that college recruits go to schools because of the program and because of the head coach, not because of the actual school they're attending. You think Arrelious Benn wanted to play in Champaign, Illinois? You think Lawrence, Kansas and it's University are all that great? You think Michael Crabtree went to Texas Tech for the education and the lovely sights of Lovett? No, these athletes come to these schools because of the head coaches and the programs. I've heard Illini football players tell me that Ron Zook is the coolest whiteboy they've ever met and that factored into their decision to come to Illinois. Kiffin's top tier recruits did not come to Tennessee because of the University, they came because of Lane Kiffin. That's why when John Calipari went from Memphis to Kentucky this year, John Wall didn't say, "Shoot, now I'm at Kentucky without the man that recruited me." No, he hoped in the next flight to Kentucky with Calipari (probably).
And think about these players. I'm sure the vast majority of high schoolers getting recruited would have much preferred to go play at USC where they'll at least play in a bowl game, as opposed to Tennessee. I'm sure these kids are thrilled to be playing at a school that has a better football outlook than Tennessee, a better education than Tennessee, and play in better whether than at Tennessee. And if the kids truly did want to play in Knoxville, nothing's stopping them. Orgeron didn't force these kids to not go to class. He simple told them that if they did, they're absolutely committed to Tennessee. Whereas if they didn't, they still would be eligible to play at either school.
And not only is USC a better gig for the players, it's a better gig for Kiffin as well. And this USC job became open much later than most other jobs because of the lengthier season of the NFL and USC's head coach took a job that may have been inconvenient for the college ranks, but was plenty convenient for the pro ranks. Thus, USC had to scramble to find a new head coach. And if I'm Lane Kiffin, and I'm offered one of the premier jobs in the FBS, why would I not take it? Kiffin owes more loyalty to USC than he ever owes or would owe to Tennessee. Players transfer all the time and nobody cares, but when a coach does it, it's blasphemy. Brian Kelly (although he took a lot of shit for this) went from the nothing school of Cincinnati to another top tiered job- Notre Dame. (Although Kelly took his job before his team went to play in a BCS bowl game which THERE is the dick move). But Kiffin didn't screw over his team. I'm sure the school is upset that it's top talent is going to USC and not Tennessee, but Kiffin still gives the school plenty of time to recruit. And it's not Kiffin's fault that "his dream job" was open so late. Think about this. If the CFO of Apple gets offered the CEO/President position of say Microsoft and he instantly takes it, is he a jerk for taking a bigger and better job? No. So why are football head coaches treated any differently?
Point is, on the surface it may appear that Kiffin is a jerk. But ask yourself why you feel that way. Kiffin did what any rational person would do. Hell, if you were in Kiffin's shoes, you would do the exact same thing. While maybe he shouldn't have said anything about bringing ethics and doing things right at USC, his actions still tell me and should tell you, that he did nothing wrong.
JP Riccardi Is On Baseball Tonight Right Now
Whoda thunk ESPN could replace Steve Phillips with an equally terrible, if not worse, former GM. We all know he's just keeping the seat warm for Omar Minaya.
Chiefs Announce Bill Bellichick As Head Coach Replacing Todd Haley
The Chiefs GM is the former Pats VP Scott Pioli. The Chiefs offensive coordinator is former Pats O-Coordinator Charlie Weis. The Chiefs defensive coordinator is Romeo Crennel- the Pats former D- Coordinator. They're QB is Matt Cassel- the Pats starter for 15 games last season. They also have former Pats LB Mike Vrabel.
Chris Johnson Wins Offensive Player Of The Year
First of all, how can Peyton Manning be the MVP yet not be the best offensive player?
Anyway, the amazing Chris Johnson had one of the best seasons had a RB ever. He's only one of six backs to gain over 2,000 yards in a season and gained the most yards ever from scrimmage by any player in a single season. So despite the fact that he got screwed out of MVP votes , at least the AP used lube when doing so by giving him in the offensive player of the year. Too vulgar of a metaphor?
Anyway, the amazing Chris Johnson had one of the best seasons had a RB ever. He's only one of six backs to gain over 2,000 yards in a season and gained the most yards ever from scrimmage by any player in a single season. So despite the fact that he got screwed out of MVP votes , at least the AP used lube when doing so by giving him in the offensive player of the year. Too vulgar of a metaphor?
Cubs 2010 Projections: This Is The Year?
Despite high expectations, the Cubs did not win the World Series in 2009. Despite being a top 5 offensive team with above average fielding and a top 10 pitching staff, the Cubs regressed from 97 wins in 2008 (despite having a Pythagorean Win Projection of 98) to a barely .500 83 wins in 2009.
To put this collapse in perspective, take note of the following. The Cubs had the highest run differential (Runs Scored minus Runs Allowed) in baseball in 2008, at 184. The second best run differential in 2008 belonged to the Red Sox, at 151. That's a chunky run differential, as 33 runs is approximately worth just over 3 wins. In 2009, the Cubs' run differential was an even 100. A loss of almost 8.5 wins. Of course, the loss of 84 runs is not simply a 8.5 win swing according to the Pythagorean Win Theory, which claimed the Cubs as being an 84 xWin team in 2009.
A lot of the run differential shrinkage from 2008 to 2009 can be accounted for in the injury-shortened and bad luck stricken seasons of Rich Harden, Aramis Ramirez, Milton Bradley, Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto. I partially examined the effects of bad luck and injury on Geovany Soto and Milton Bradley here and here. All of Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, and Ted Lilly spent some time on the DL last year. 2010 should be a different story, as most of the team is slated to return, hopefully be healthy, and many players poised for significant rebound. 2010 CHONE WAR projections are not available for pitchers, but they are available for hitters. Using CHONE, here is a look at how the 2010 Cubs offense is projected to fair in comparison to the 2009 offense.
TOTAL: +9.8 WAR
Last season, Cubs pitchers cost the team 3 wins. Let's assume the Cubs pitching maintains the same quality of pitching and thus there is no need to adjust the marginal pitching differential with regard to the 2010 WAR adjustment (it is already accounted for in our calculations if it is assumed to remain static).
What is clearly discernible here is that the Cubs offense is primed for a significant rebound in 2010. If the pitching staff quality and outfield defense were to remain static, the Cubs, in theory, would be in line for a 93 win season. The Cubs subtracted Rich Harden, a very good starting pitcher who underperformed last season, from the starting rotation, but because Harden struggled so mightily, replacing his 1.8 WAR season won't be very difficult (Jon Garland, for example, has not posted a WAR of less than 1.8 since 2002). Relief guys like Cotts, Gregg and Patton (who collectively cost the Cubs a win last season) also figure to be out of the mix.
I don't want to jinx it, but 2010 may be the year...if not, it's the best chance the Cubs are poised to have for a while.
To put this collapse in perspective, take note of the following. The Cubs had the highest run differential (Runs Scored minus Runs Allowed) in baseball in 2008, at 184. The second best run differential in 2008 belonged to the Red Sox, at 151. That's a chunky run differential, as 33 runs is approximately worth just over 3 wins. In 2009, the Cubs' run differential was an even 100. A loss of almost 8.5 wins. Of course, the loss of 84 runs is not simply a 8.5 win swing according to the Pythagorean Win Theory, which claimed the Cubs as being an 84 xWin team in 2009.
A lot of the run differential shrinkage from 2008 to 2009 can be accounted for in the injury-shortened and bad luck stricken seasons of Rich Harden, Aramis Ramirez, Milton Bradley, Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto. I partially examined the effects of bad luck and injury on Geovany Soto and Milton Bradley here and here. All of Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, and Ted Lilly spent some time on the DL last year. 2010 should be a different story, as most of the team is slated to return, hopefully be healthy, and many players poised for significant rebound. 2010 CHONE WAR projections are not available for pitchers, but they are available for hitters. Using CHONE, here is a look at how the 2010 Cubs offense is projected to fair in comparison to the 2009 offense.
TOTAL: +9.8 WAR
Last season, Cubs pitchers cost the team 3 wins. Let's assume the Cubs pitching maintains the same quality of pitching and thus there is no need to adjust the marginal pitching differential with regard to the 2010 WAR adjustment (it is already accounted for in our calculations if it is assumed to remain static).
What is clearly discernible here is that the Cubs offense is primed for a significant rebound in 2010. If the pitching staff quality and outfield defense were to remain static, the Cubs, in theory, would be in line for a 93 win season. The Cubs subtracted Rich Harden, a very good starting pitcher who underperformed last season, from the starting rotation, but because Harden struggled so mightily, replacing his 1.8 WAR season won't be very difficult (Jon Garland, for example, has not posted a WAR of less than 1.8 since 2002). Relief guys like Cotts, Gregg and Patton (who collectively cost the Cubs a win last season) also figure to be out of the mix.
I don't want to jinx it, but 2010 may be the year...if not, it's the best chance the Cubs are poised to have for a while.
Aldrois Chapman, Meet Dusty Baker
Dusty Baker, Reds pitchers and total/average Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) by season:
2009:
Aaron Harang (162.1 IP, 15th in total PAP, 16th in Avg. PAP)
Bronson Arroyo (220.1 IP, 18th in total PAP, 22nd in Avg. PAP)
Homer Bailey (113.1 IP, 40th in total PAP, 23rd in Avg. PAP)
Johnny Cueto (171.1 IP, 83rd in total PAP, 96th in Avg. PAP)
Micah Owings (119.2 IP, 167th in total PAP, 184th in Avg. PAP)
(out of a total 664 pitchers)
-Point of interest: The second most abused pitcher by game in baseball was Pedro Martinez (~3762 Avg. PAP). The most abused pitcher by game in baseball was Justin Verlander (~6283 Avg. PAP).
2008
Aaron Harang (184.1 IP, 19th in total PAP, 18th in Avg. PAP)
Bronson Arroyo (200 IP, 15th in total PAP, 19th in Avg. PAP)
Edinson Volquez (196 IP, 17th in total PAP, 18th in Avg. PAP, )
Johnny Cueto (174 IP, 27th in total PAP, 34th in Avg. PAP)
Josh Fogg (78.1 IP for the Reds, 189th in total PAP, 196th in Avg. PAP)
(out of a total 651 pitchers)
2007
Aaron Harang (231.2 IP, 5th in total PAP, 5th in Avg. PAP)
Bronson Arroyo (210.2 IP, 6th in total PAP, 6th in Avg. PAP)
Kyle Lohse (131.2 IP, 54th in total PAP, 60th in Avg. PAP)
Matt Belisle (177.2 IP, 83rd in total PAP, 98th in Avg. PAP)
Bobby Livingston (56.1 IP, 153rd in total PAP, 149th in Avg. PAP)
(out of a total 666 pitchers)
Pitchers who required major arm surgery/surgeries while or shortly after Dusty Baker was their manager:
That's eight pitchers in sixteen years of management. Welcome to the Reds, Aldrois Chapman.
2009:
Aaron Harang (162.1 IP, 15th in total PAP, 16th in Avg. PAP)
Bronson Arroyo (220.1 IP, 18th in total PAP, 22nd in Avg. PAP)
Homer Bailey (113.1 IP, 40th in total PAP, 23rd in Avg. PAP)
Johnny Cueto (171.1 IP, 83rd in total PAP, 96th in Avg. PAP)
Micah Owings (119.2 IP, 167th in total PAP, 184th in Avg. PAP)
(out of a total 664 pitchers)
-Point of interest: The second most abused pitcher by game in baseball was Pedro Martinez (~3762 Avg. PAP). The most abused pitcher by game in baseball was Justin Verlander (~6283 Avg. PAP).
2008
Aaron Harang (184.1 IP, 19th in total PAP, 18th in Avg. PAP)
Bronson Arroyo (200 IP, 15th in total PAP, 19th in Avg. PAP)
Edinson Volquez (196 IP, 17th in total PAP, 18th in Avg. PAP, )
Johnny Cueto (174 IP, 27th in total PAP, 34th in Avg. PAP)
Josh Fogg (78.1 IP for the Reds, 189th in total PAP, 196th in Avg. PAP)
(out of a total 651 pitchers)
2007
Aaron Harang (231.2 IP, 5th in total PAP, 5th in Avg. PAP)
Bronson Arroyo (210.2 IP, 6th in total PAP, 6th in Avg. PAP)
Kyle Lohse (131.2 IP, 54th in total PAP, 60th in Avg. PAP)
Matt Belisle (177.2 IP, 83rd in total PAP, 98th in Avg. PAP)
Bobby Livingston (56.1 IP, 153rd in total PAP, 149th in Avg. PAP)
(out of a total 666 pitchers)
Pitchers who required major arm surgery/surgeries while or shortly after Dusty Baker was their manager:
Edinson Volquez*Harang didn't require major surgery, but Dusty Baker broke him on May 22, 2008.
Kerry Wood
Mark Prior
Matt Clement
Jason Schmidt
Angel Guzman
Rob Nenn
Aaron Harang*
That's eight pitchers in sixteen years of management. Welcome to the Reds, Aldrois Chapman.
Football Board Bets: Results
So TBO and myself have made some football board bets and I know all of you have been on pins and needles anxiously awaiting the results of who won, so here... wE....GO!
Bet One: Pierre Thomas will be a top 12 RB this year
Like Matthew Berry, I also lost this board as Thomas ended up as the 20th best back this year. Stupid Sean Peyton not giving him enough carries...
Winner: The 'Bright' One
Bet Two: Over/Under 8.5 rushing or receiving TDs for Reggie Bush
Bush made this close getting 8 but like Bush has always done, he gets injured and saves me.
Winner: Sexy Rexy
Bet Three: Better fantasy back this year: Fred Taylor or Ahmad Bradshaw
Taylor only played like three games so he didn't meet the minimum carries so this bet is void
Winner: The New England Patriots
The rest of these bets are from week six on
Bet Four: More receiving TDs: TO vs. Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox
TO ended up with 4, Bennett with 2 and Knox got, drum roll...... TWO. Again, another wash, but really, this says more about TO than it does anything else
Winner: TO's agent
Bet Five: Fewer fantasy points: LT or Brain Westbrook
Not only did Westbrook get concussed soon after this bet but as slow and crappy as LT looked, he got a lot of yards and TDs. Westbrook won 19 to 135.
Winner: Sexy Rexy
Best Six: Big Ben will have a passer rating under 86.0
While this bet was for the entire year, no matter, Big Ben still was actually good for ONCE in his career and actually showed he can pass well without a running game. The one year I make a bet about him is the one year he proves me wrong. Jerk.
Winner: The 'Bright' One
Bet Seven: Hester, Cutler, and Forte vs. Berrian, Orton, and Benson
Former Bears: 264. Current Bears: 282. Fuck.
Winner: The 'Bright' One
And because you can do simple math, the winner of the 2009 football board bets between Sexy Rexy and The 'Bright' One is: THE 'BRIGHT' ONE
TBO gets: na na na na na na's
SR gets: I Told You So
Bet One: Pierre Thomas will be a top 12 RB this year
Like Matthew Berry, I also lost this board as Thomas ended up as the 20th best back this year. Stupid Sean Peyton not giving him enough carries...
Winner: The 'Bright' One
Bet Two: Over/Under 8.5 rushing or receiving TDs for Reggie Bush
Bush made this close getting 8 but like Bush has always done, he gets injured and saves me.
Winner: Sexy Rexy
Bet Three: Better fantasy back this year: Fred Taylor or Ahmad Bradshaw
Taylor only played like three games so he didn't meet the minimum carries so this bet is void
Winner: The New England Patriots
The rest of these bets are from week six on
Bet Four: More receiving TDs: TO vs. Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox
TO ended up with 4, Bennett with 2 and Knox got, drum roll...... TWO. Again, another wash, but really, this says more about TO than it does anything else
Winner: TO's agent
Bet Five: Fewer fantasy points: LT or Brain Westbrook
Not only did Westbrook get concussed soon after this bet but as slow and crappy as LT looked, he got a lot of yards and TDs. Westbrook won 19 to 135.
Winner: Sexy Rexy
Best Six: Big Ben will have a passer rating under 86.0
While this bet was for the entire year, no matter, Big Ben still was actually good for ONCE in his career and actually showed he can pass well without a running game. The one year I make a bet about him is the one year he proves me wrong. Jerk.
Winner: The 'Bright' One
Bet Seven: Hester, Cutler, and Forte vs. Berrian, Orton, and Benson
Former Bears: 264. Current Bears: 282. Fuck.
Winner: The 'Bright' One
And because you can do simple math, the winner of the 2009 football board bets between Sexy Rexy and The 'Bright' One is: THE 'BRIGHT' ONE
TBO gets: na na na na na na's
SR gets: I Told You So
Stolen Goods: The Myth Of Defensive Diminishing Returns
Most of you probably know him from Fangraphs, but others will know Dave Cameron from U.S.S. Mariner. Recently, in defense of Jack Zduriencik and his defensive posture this offseason, Cameron wrote one of the most insightful pieces on team construction which I have read in a long time. The article, titled The Myth Of Defensive Diminishing Returns, explains why the law of diminishing marginal returns does not apply to defense:
"Put simply, almost every single ball in play that matters is only catchable by one player. On a line drive to left field, the quality of the defender at second base is completely irrelevant. That the team already has Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson doesn’t matter when the hitter smashes a line drive down the first base line – the only variable on the defensive side is the quality of the first baseman. If he’s lousy, then the play isn’t getting made, regardless of how good his teammates are defensively."There is much more meat to Cameron's thesis in the article itself and I highly recommend giving it a thorough reading. Perhaps even a forwarding or two.
Marlins Agree To Be Less Cheap In The Future
Perhaps facing the prospect of MLB-imposed fines or Player's Union-filed grievances, the Marlins have come to an agreement to increase payroll.
You can read my extensive complaints about the cheapness that is Marlins' owner Jeff Loria here. Perhaps this saga will finally come to a positive conclusion; then I will set my sights on Mariners ownership.
You can read my extensive complaints about the cheapness that is Marlins' owner Jeff Loria here. Perhaps this saga will finally come to a positive conclusion; then I will set my sights on Mariners ownership.
Mark McGwire Is Very Sad He Hit All Those 550 Foot Home Runs
Nice job of McGwire choosing the MLB network to do his admittance interview. A channel that no one in the world actually has. Well I have it, but no one else.
The Worst Sports Announcer In The World Competition (playoffs)
A loud thank you to everyone who voted in round 3 of The Worst Sports Announcer In The World Competition. We finally broke the curse of the tie carry over, though Joe Buck and Chip Caray made it a close one. In the end, we are left with four names: Morgan, Buck, Harrelson, and Mariotti. Each will duke it out in the playoffs (round 4) and only two names can move on. Who will take the inglorious crown of The Worst Sports Announcer In The World Competition? Only time will tell.
Quick side note: how did Ron Santo end up with more votes than D.J.? Yes, Santo is pretty bad, but he's nowhere near as bad as either Hawk or D.J. For proof, listen to a Sox game on the radio this season.
The voting now enters the playoffs, where you may only cast ONE vote per bracket. The top two vote-getting names from the last round (Morgan, Mariotti) will square off against the two guys with the least amount of votes (Buck, Harrelson). You can access voting for the playoffs by either clicking here (sorry, but the voting for the playoff round of The Worst Sports Announcer In The World Competition has closed) or by clicking the giant blue link atop the page. At the end of this round, we will be left with two names to square off head-to-head for the title of The Worst Sports Announcer In The World. Voting will be open until January 21. We at Game Of Inches appreciate your participation and feedback. Cast your vote now!
Below are the voting results for Round 3 (click to enlarge):
Quick side note: how did Ron Santo end up with more votes than D.J.? Yes, Santo is pretty bad, but he's nowhere near as bad as either Hawk or D.J. For proof, listen to a Sox game on the radio this season.
The voting now enters the playoffs, where you may only cast ONE vote per bracket. The top two vote-getting names from the last round (Morgan, Mariotti) will square off against the two guys with the least amount of votes (Buck, Harrelson). You can access voting for the playoffs by either clicking here (sorry, but the voting for the playoff round of The Worst Sports Announcer In The World Competition has closed) or by clicking the giant blue link atop the page. At the end of this round, we will be left with two names to square off head-to-head for the title of The Worst Sports Announcer In The World. Voting will be open until January 21. We at Game Of Inches appreciate your participation and feedback. Cast your vote now!
Below are the voting results for Round 3 (click to enlarge):
Giants Seeking Left-Handed Bat, Sign Aubrey Huff
After Adam LaRoche (surprisingly) turned down the Giants offer of two-years, $17 million, the Giants -- who ranked second-to-last in ISO (with a team mark of .132) and dead last in all of OBP, BB% and wOBA last season -- concluded their search for a "lefty-hitter" by signing Aubrey Huff to $3 million, one-year deal. The same Aubrey Huff who hit .241/.310/.384 (.684 OPS) last season. How this is an upgrade for the Giants, who hit .257/.309/.389 (.699 OPS) as a team, is anyone's guess. Even when you account for Huff's .263 BABIP (.311 xBABIP), Huff's adjusted batting line (assuming all additional hits would be singles) last season would have been .282/.347/.426 (.773 OPS).
Yes, at $3 million/1-year, the Giants are only paying for less than even a single WAR on the open market. Such a signing makes sense if the team is in no position to compete, rebuilding for the future, and does not wish to waste resources by plugging temporary holes. The Giants are not in such a position, however. They were top 5 in FIP and #2 in xFIP last season. They have a super rotation of Lincecum-Cain-Sanchez in the top 3 spots, while Zito manages to be the highest paid (and most overpaid) number five guy in all of baseball. Furthermore, the Giants have one of baseball's best pitching prospects, lefty starter Madison Bumgardner, waiting in the wings alongs with baseball's top catching prospect, Buster Posey.
On the other end of the field, the Giants have Kung Fu Panda. That's it. Sure, Aaron Rowand is trolling around somewhere in the outfield, making web-gem-like diving catches at routine flyballs, but he's a 2 WAR player at this point in his career. What does it say about your offense last year when your second best offensive player was Juan Uribe? It says "hmm, maybe I should have offered more money to a better offensive player (like Jason Bay, Matt Holliday or Russell Branyan) or even try upping my offer to Adam LaRoche, rather than wasting salary on an old-as-balls guy in the twilight of his career (2008 aside, Huff has been on the decline since 2004.)." Don't believe me? Check out these 2010 percentile forecasts from ZiPS (click to enlarge):
According to ZiPS, only two players on the Giants 2009 roster have a greater than 2% chance to hit (at least) 30 home runs next year, and the Giants non-tendered one of them. Ryan Garko was also one of only three players on the Giants in 2009 who is projected to have a 20% or greater chance of posting an OBP greater than or equal to .375. Of those who will be with the Giants next season, only Kung Fu Panda has a remotely and statistically relevant (5% or greater) chance of hitting 45+ doubles in 2010. Furthermore, if you click the ZiPS link (above) rather than look at my screen shot, you will notice that only Kung Fu Panda is projected to be at least 5% better than the average offensive player next season.
In plain English, the Giants need some real (and serious) offensive help.
Perhaps this move was just Brian Sabean's way of telling Dayton Moore (who recently signed Scotty Pods) that he is challenging him for the title of worst GM ever.
Yes, at $3 million/1-year, the Giants are only paying for less than even a single WAR on the open market. Such a signing makes sense if the team is in no position to compete, rebuilding for the future, and does not wish to waste resources by plugging temporary holes. The Giants are not in such a position, however. They were top 5 in FIP and #2 in xFIP last season. They have a super rotation of Lincecum-Cain-Sanchez in the top 3 spots, while Zito manages to be the highest paid (and most overpaid) number five guy in all of baseball. Furthermore, the Giants have one of baseball's best pitching prospects, lefty starter Madison Bumgardner, waiting in the wings alongs with baseball's top catching prospect, Buster Posey.
On the other end of the field, the Giants have Kung Fu Panda. That's it. Sure, Aaron Rowand is trolling around somewhere in the outfield, making web-gem-like diving catches at routine flyballs, but he's a 2 WAR player at this point in his career. What does it say about your offense last year when your second best offensive player was Juan Uribe? It says "hmm, maybe I should have offered more money to a better offensive player (like Jason Bay, Matt Holliday or Russell Branyan) or even try upping my offer to Adam LaRoche, rather than wasting salary on an old-as-balls guy in the twilight of his career (2008 aside, Huff has been on the decline since 2004.)." Don't believe me? Check out these 2010 percentile forecasts from ZiPS (click to enlarge):
According to ZiPS, only two players on the Giants 2009 roster have a greater than 2% chance to hit (at least) 30 home runs next year, and the Giants non-tendered one of them. Ryan Garko was also one of only three players on the Giants in 2009 who is projected to have a 20% or greater chance of posting an OBP greater than or equal to .375. Of those who will be with the Giants next season, only Kung Fu Panda has a remotely and statistically relevant (5% or greater) chance of hitting 45+ doubles in 2010. Furthermore, if you click the ZiPS link (above) rather than look at my screen shot, you will notice that only Kung Fu Panda is projected to be at least 5% better than the average offensive player next season.
In plain English, the Giants need some real (and serious) offensive help.
Perhaps this move was just Brian Sabean's way of telling Dayton Moore (who recently signed Scotty Pods) that he is challenging him for the title of worst GM ever.
Breaking News: Mark McGwire Admits Steroid Use
Subheadline: OJ Simpson admits murder.
Seriously. This is old news, even if it was never official before. Much more interesting, however, is the report from a few days ago that there is the vague possibility that Big Mac might be added to the roster as a bench player if the Cardinals are in contention by August 31. Not sure how this would affect Big Mac's HOF eligibility.
Personally, I can't wait for McGwire's first press conference as the Cardinals hitting coach. "So Big Mac, what is your plan to fix holes in your player's swings? Steroids?"
And now, for a pair of quick FJM moments from the article:
Then TLR added his two cents.
Question of the day: Will Barry Bonds continue to "O.J." his steroid usage, or will he ever come clean?
Seriously. This is old news, even if it was never official before. Much more interesting, however, is the report from a few days ago that there is the vague possibility that Big Mac might be added to the roster as a bench player if the Cardinals are in contention by August 31. Not sure how this would affect Big Mac's HOF eligibility.
Personally, I can't wait for McGwire's first press conference as the Cardinals hitting coach. "So Big Mac, what is your plan to fix holes in your player's swings? Steroids?"
And now, for a pair of quick FJM moments from the article:
Added McGwire: That way, I'd never have to admit using them.Mark McGwire has admitted taking steroids in 1998 when he broke Roger Maris' home run record.
"I wish I had never touched steroids," McGwire said in a statement. "It was foolish and it was a mistake. I truly apologize. Looking back, I wish I had never played during the steroid era.
Then TLR added his two cents.
Really? Just found out? Even though he managed the same team McGwire played for all but one season of his career? I suspect either La Russa drank so much that he forgot about all the Andro in McGwire's locker or he's flat out lying. Not McGwire or Sosa-style, but Barry Bonds-style lying. I'm sorry, alleged lying. For the record, Buzz Bissinger essentially wouldn't trust Tony La Russa to babysit his kids.Tony La Russa, the Cardinals manager who hired McGwire as hitting coach and who managed McGwire with both the A's and the Cardinals, told MLB Network he did not feel duped by his former slugger, adding, "It's not excusable, it's a mistake but the perception of Mark when he played was he's a really solid individual and a great teamamte and I think that will be restored."
La Russa said he first found out when McGwire spoke to him Monday morning.
Question of the day: Will Barry Bonds continue to "O.J." his steroid usage, or will he ever come clean?
What Is The Bulls Achilles Heal?
Half way through the NBA season, we can be pretty sure that the Chicago Bulls are a slightly below average team. They sit in the 9th spot of the weak Eastern Conference and are getting outscored by 4.7 points per game, which is 4th worst in basketball. The offense has been the weak point this season, averaging 92.7 points per game, only better than the 91.6 of the injury plagued Detroit Pistons.
Lets quickly figure out the source of the scoring differential between the Bulls and their opponents. In simplest terms, the offense tries to score points and the defense tries to prevent them. Hence the point differential. I recently described that there are only 3 ways to score in the NBA, so which of these 3 is the source of the Bulls struggles.
1) Take more shots than your opponents, or shoot a higher percentage to make more shots. The Bulls are being out-shot by less than 1 attempt per game, which is minimal, and are shooting 1% less from the field than their opponents, which only equates to 1 extra shot made per 100 attempts. Neither of these are significant enough to make up a 4.7 point differential.
2) Make more 3 point shots as they are worth 50% more than a regular field goal. The difference in the 3-pt field goal percentage is 0.1% between the Bulls and their opponents. Thats 1 extra made every thousand chances. Completely irrelevant. However, the opponents have made 251 out of 750 attempts, while the Bulls have made just 129 out of 386 attempts. Thats 122 more trifectas over the course of 35 games. Thats appoximately 3.5 more 3-pointers per game, equaling an extra 3.5 points for the opposition. Obviously, the Bulls miss those 2.1 3-pointers Ben Gordon averaged last year. Also, they shot and unrealistically high 38% from the arc last year, which has regressed back to a respectable 33% this year. Their lack of a 3-point shooter may be the difference between getting into the playoffs and not.
3) Take more free throw attempts per game, which will lead to more "free points". The Bulls have been out-shot by only 21 free throws this season, just over half a free throw per game. This figure is insignificant in the big picture.
Hopefully it is now clear that the main macroscopic issue of the Bulls offense this season is the 3-point shot. I would recommend that instead of that stupid 20 footer Loul Deng loves to take, he should take a step back and throw up some 3's. Same risk, 50% more reward.
Lets quickly figure out the source of the scoring differential between the Bulls and their opponents. In simplest terms, the offense tries to score points and the defense tries to prevent them. Hence the point differential. I recently described that there are only 3 ways to score in the NBA, so which of these 3 is the source of the Bulls struggles.
1) Take more shots than your opponents, or shoot a higher percentage to make more shots. The Bulls are being out-shot by less than 1 attempt per game, which is minimal, and are shooting 1% less from the field than their opponents, which only equates to 1 extra shot made per 100 attempts. Neither of these are significant enough to make up a 4.7 point differential.
2) Make more 3 point shots as they are worth 50% more than a regular field goal. The difference in the 3-pt field goal percentage is 0.1% between the Bulls and their opponents. Thats 1 extra made every thousand chances. Completely irrelevant. However, the opponents have made 251 out of 750 attempts, while the Bulls have made just 129 out of 386 attempts. Thats 122 more trifectas over the course of 35 games. Thats appoximately 3.5 more 3-pointers per game, equaling an extra 3.5 points for the opposition. Obviously, the Bulls miss those 2.1 3-pointers Ben Gordon averaged last year. Also, they shot and unrealistically high 38% from the arc last year, which has regressed back to a respectable 33% this year. Their lack of a 3-point shooter may be the difference between getting into the playoffs and not.
3) Take more free throw attempts per game, which will lead to more "free points". The Bulls have been out-shot by only 21 free throws this season, just over half a free throw per game. This figure is insignificant in the big picture.
Hopefully it is now clear that the main macroscopic issue of the Bulls offense this season is the 3-point shot. I would recommend that instead of that stupid 20 footer Loul Deng loves to take, he should take a step back and throw up some 3's. Same risk, 50% more reward.
Chris Johnson Gets F%*@ed In The A$$
The Tennessee Titan ran for over 2,000 yards in a single season and doesn't even garnish any MVP votes. As much as I would have loved for Johnson to get the MVP and as much as he deserved it, I wouldn't mind it as much if both him and Manning both got a lot of votes- like what the NL ROY votes looked like with Tulo and Ryan Braun. Yes Manning had a great year and I have no problem with the MVP going to him. But for Johnson to not gain A SINGLE VOTE. Really!? What the hell AP, that's some bull right there. If having one of the greatest rushing seasons for ANY running back can't even get you ONE vote, then I guess being Brett Favre is the only other criteria to get votes.
I understand that the Titans missed the playoffs and it was probably more Vince Young than Johnson's doing that the Titans won as many games as they did- but how is the Titans win loss record anywhere close to being Johnson's fault. The Titans did not lose games because of Chris Johnson but he's being punished like he did.
ESPN has a "who gives a F%*@ department"
I just learned, from the bottom line on ESPN, that Ben Gordon scored the 10 millionth point in NBA history.
1) What are the odds that is actually accurate? None
2) How is this number relevant to anything? It's not
3) Will this information ever be to useful to anyone under any circumstance? Nope
4) Who at ESPN thought this was something that needed to be reported? Tim Kurkjian maybe
5) 10 million? Thats still 48 million less than Ben Gordon is making on his contract. Report that shit
Do YOU Want To Deal With Jay Cutler?: The Next Bears Offensive Coordintor
I was elated to hear that Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner was fired. But the next step is equally as important and crucial as firing Turner- hiring his replacement. If the Bears hire someone equally as dumb and worthless as Turner- then his firing will be for naught. I was excited to hear that Charlie Weis' name was rumored to be in the mix for the Bears O-coordinator job. Everywhere Weis has gone, he's always had a top notch offense and he's always been able to develop quarterbacks. Say what you will about Brady Quinn and Jimmy Clausen, but Weis has helped refined and sharpen these guys' skills and I think he would have made a great mentor for Jay Cutler. But my excitement was premature because Weis was recently introduced as the Kansas City Chiefs new offensive coordinator. So who should be the next coordinator?
The two leading candidates seem to be Mike Martz and Jeremy Bates. I have huge reservations about both candidates. First Mike Martz. Martz was Lovie's head coach in St. Louis during the Greatest Show On Turf. But as Martz's career has shown in San Fran and Detroit, it was clear Martz' offense succeeded in St. Louis because of the talent and not because of Martz' great coaching skills. In The Blueprint, author Christopher Price chronicles the recent success of the New England Patriots. He talks about the 2001 Superbowl between the Rams and the Pats. He talks with players and coaches during that year and they fully admit that that defense was very skilled to defend against Kurt Warner and the pass, and not against Marshall Faulk and the running game. In fact, if the Rams had even done a steady dose of the run and the pass, instead of focusing on the pass like a Mike Martz offense will do, the Rams probably would have won that game. This was an in game skill that Martz could have and should have noticed. But he didn't and the Rams ended up losing that game.
Mike Martz loves to throw the ball- probably more than an Andy Reid offense. Which means that if Martz becomes the new O-coordinator, Jay Cutler will probably throw for 5,000 yards. While this might make Cutler a great fantasy QB, it won't help Cutler develop and it won't help the Bears win games. When Martz was the coordinator for Detroit, Jon Kitna threw for a crap ton of yards and TDs. But he still threw a lot of interceptions. Martz just wanted to throw the ball without really developing the QB to help his QB throw the ball accurately. This would not bode well for Cutler. The guys already throws a ton and is pass happy, and already throws a crap ton of INTs. If the Bears do end up hiring Martz, Cutler will still have the same problems and nothing will be solved.
Another problem with the Bears is that they weren't able to get their running game going. I still put most of the blame on the offensive line, but still, in a 16 game season, there's absolutely no reason Matt Forte should not get 1,000 yards rushing. But what has Mike Martz shown that he will help Forte and the running game? In fact, hiring Martz seems like it would stunt the growth even further of Forte because of the pass happy nature of Martz. Sure, Martz knows Lovie very well and I'm sure they would work great together, but it's all about the product on the field. And with Martz, I can't imagine based on the large sample of his work, that the Bears would be a better team.
Next, we have Jeremy Bates. Bates was Cutler's former QB coach in Denver and was USC's offensive coordinator last year. The problem I have with him is that he is fairly inexperienced. He worked for Tampa Bay the year they won the Superbowl, but was the "offensive quality control" coach for two years and only the assistant QB coach one other. He was the QB coach for the Jets in 2005 and the QB coach for Denver in 2007 and 2008. Which led him to his job at USC. I actually wouldn't mind the lack of experience if Bates has proven to me that he did well in his little football time. The year Cutler went to the Pro Bowl was the year the Broncos were essentially down in every game which forced Cutler to throw a lot and gain yards and TD stats. But when you look beneath the numbers, Cutler still wasn't THAT good and clearly the coaching didn't help because he regressed in 2009. And then we go to USC this past year. This decade, USC has historically had great offenses and damn fine QBs including Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, and Mark Sanchez. No matter who seems to be the QB, the QB and offense seemed to do well. Except for last year- the year Bates was the O-coordinator. I'm sure it would help that if Bates was the offensive coordinator that Cutler would respect him, but he hasn't convinced me that he can successfully develop a QB or run a successful offense.
So while I poo-pooed and dismissed the current choices, I frankly don't have any better solutions for you. Ideally, I would like a guy that has shown to me that everywhere he goes, he has had either great offenses or has developed QBs. A guy like Charlie Weis. One of the reasons Kentucky fans were so elated that John Calipari recently became their coach and why Notre Dame fans should be happy with Brian Kelly because everywhere these guys have gone, they have recruited well and won. A lot. I want a guy like that, but unfortunately, I don't think any guy like that is still available.
I think the next best solution then is to find a way to develop Jay Cutler. If you looked at every other stat of his besides INTs, you would like what you saw. He put up more yards, more TDs, and had a better completion percentage than other QB in recent (and probably past) Bears history. But his obvious, glaring problem is his high interception rate. While I admit the cause of this is based upon my amateur eyes and news reports, the reason Cutler throws all these interceptions is because he has such a great arm that he feels he can force balls into tight spaces. But because either we have shitty receivers or because of the low decision making by Cutler, he does not complete a lot of passes when he does that and those balls ended up being intercepted.
I think there is a solvable remedy though for this that is currently within the McCaskeys reach and that is hiring the correct offensive coordinator/ QB coach. I can't remember who, but some sports radio talk show was talking about this and I actually agreed with them. The personality and the coaching style of the two coaches the McCaskeys hire can affect Cutler's personality and hopefully this affect his play.
Cutler is an asshole. Cutler is a dick. Culter is a cunt. Jay Cutler is not like a Peyton Manning where he is nice and people respect him. Cutler is that bully in high school who a lot of people like but rubs everybody else the wrong way. It is because of this personality that Culter defiantly throws passes he thinks he can make. I'm sure Turner and Lovie and everybody else yelled at him for his poor decision making- but he's fucking Jay Cutler and he does what he wants. There were reports that he completely lost respect for Turner and the offensive staff (although I wouldn't have respect for Ron Turner either...)
But I think there still is a way for a coach to get to Cutler. Whether it be that the offensive coordinator is chill and laid back but the QB coach is strict and hard and a dick back to Cutler or vice versa, some coaching change was and is necessary to get through to the jerk that is Jay Cutler. This new offensive coaching staff needs to find a way to get to Cutler and teach and develop him to cut down on those dumb, risky passes that Cutler loves so much and teach him that it's OK to throw the ball away or dump the ball off to Forte when you don't have anything open.
So maybe Jeremy Bates is the right candidate because Cutler has openly admitted that he wants Bates for the job. Or maybe Mike Martz's pass happy offensive will help Cutler. But no matter who becomes the Bears next offensive coordinator, something drastic needs to be done to improve this offense. Either that or draft and pick up better offensive lineman this free agency. That helps as well.
The two leading candidates seem to be Mike Martz and Jeremy Bates. I have huge reservations about both candidates. First Mike Martz. Martz was Lovie's head coach in St. Louis during the Greatest Show On Turf. But as Martz's career has shown in San Fran and Detroit, it was clear Martz' offense succeeded in St. Louis because of the talent and not because of Martz' great coaching skills. In The Blueprint, author Christopher Price chronicles the recent success of the New England Patriots. He talks about the 2001 Superbowl between the Rams and the Pats. He talks with players and coaches during that year and they fully admit that that defense was very skilled to defend against Kurt Warner and the pass, and not against Marshall Faulk and the running game. In fact, if the Rams had even done a steady dose of the run and the pass, instead of focusing on the pass like a Mike Martz offense will do, the Rams probably would have won that game. This was an in game skill that Martz could have and should have noticed. But he didn't and the Rams ended up losing that game.
Mike Martz loves to throw the ball- probably more than an Andy Reid offense. Which means that if Martz becomes the new O-coordinator, Jay Cutler will probably throw for 5,000 yards. While this might make Cutler a great fantasy QB, it won't help Cutler develop and it won't help the Bears win games. When Martz was the coordinator for Detroit, Jon Kitna threw for a crap ton of yards and TDs. But he still threw a lot of interceptions. Martz just wanted to throw the ball without really developing the QB to help his QB throw the ball accurately. This would not bode well for Cutler. The guys already throws a ton and is pass happy, and already throws a crap ton of INTs. If the Bears do end up hiring Martz, Cutler will still have the same problems and nothing will be solved.
Another problem with the Bears is that they weren't able to get their running game going. I still put most of the blame on the offensive line, but still, in a 16 game season, there's absolutely no reason Matt Forte should not get 1,000 yards rushing. But what has Mike Martz shown that he will help Forte and the running game? In fact, hiring Martz seems like it would stunt the growth even further of Forte because of the pass happy nature of Martz. Sure, Martz knows Lovie very well and I'm sure they would work great together, but it's all about the product on the field. And with Martz, I can't imagine based on the large sample of his work, that the Bears would be a better team.
Next, we have Jeremy Bates. Bates was Cutler's former QB coach in Denver and was USC's offensive coordinator last year. The problem I have with him is that he is fairly inexperienced. He worked for Tampa Bay the year they won the Superbowl, but was the "offensive quality control" coach for two years and only the assistant QB coach one other. He was the QB coach for the Jets in 2005 and the QB coach for Denver in 2007 and 2008. Which led him to his job at USC. I actually wouldn't mind the lack of experience if Bates has proven to me that he did well in his little football time. The year Cutler went to the Pro Bowl was the year the Broncos were essentially down in every game which forced Cutler to throw a lot and gain yards and TD stats. But when you look beneath the numbers, Cutler still wasn't THAT good and clearly the coaching didn't help because he regressed in 2009. And then we go to USC this past year. This decade, USC has historically had great offenses and damn fine QBs including Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, and Mark Sanchez. No matter who seems to be the QB, the QB and offense seemed to do well. Except for last year- the year Bates was the O-coordinator. I'm sure it would help that if Bates was the offensive coordinator that Cutler would respect him, but he hasn't convinced me that he can successfully develop a QB or run a successful offense.
So while I poo-pooed and dismissed the current choices, I frankly don't have any better solutions for you. Ideally, I would like a guy that has shown to me that everywhere he goes, he has had either great offenses or has developed QBs. A guy like Charlie Weis. One of the reasons Kentucky fans were so elated that John Calipari recently became their coach and why Notre Dame fans should be happy with Brian Kelly because everywhere these guys have gone, they have recruited well and won. A lot. I want a guy like that, but unfortunately, I don't think any guy like that is still available.
I think the next best solution then is to find a way to develop Jay Cutler. If you looked at every other stat of his besides INTs, you would like what you saw. He put up more yards, more TDs, and had a better completion percentage than other QB in recent (and probably past) Bears history. But his obvious, glaring problem is his high interception rate. While I admit the cause of this is based upon my amateur eyes and news reports, the reason Cutler throws all these interceptions is because he has such a great arm that he feels he can force balls into tight spaces. But because either we have shitty receivers or because of the low decision making by Cutler, he does not complete a lot of passes when he does that and those balls ended up being intercepted.
I think there is a solvable remedy though for this that is currently within the McCaskeys reach and that is hiring the correct offensive coordinator/ QB coach. I can't remember who, but some sports radio talk show was talking about this and I actually agreed with them. The personality and the coaching style of the two coaches the McCaskeys hire can affect Cutler's personality and hopefully this affect his play.
Cutler is an asshole. Cutler is a dick. Culter is a cunt. Jay Cutler is not like a Peyton Manning where he is nice and people respect him. Cutler is that bully in high school who a lot of people like but rubs everybody else the wrong way. It is because of this personality that Culter defiantly throws passes he thinks he can make. I'm sure Turner and Lovie and everybody else yelled at him for his poor decision making- but he's fucking Jay Cutler and he does what he wants. There were reports that he completely lost respect for Turner and the offensive staff (although I wouldn't have respect for Ron Turner either...)
But I think there still is a way for a coach to get to Cutler. Whether it be that the offensive coordinator is chill and laid back but the QB coach is strict and hard and a dick back to Cutler or vice versa, some coaching change was and is necessary to get through to the jerk that is Jay Cutler. This new offensive coaching staff needs to find a way to get to Cutler and teach and develop him to cut down on those dumb, risky passes that Cutler loves so much and teach him that it's OK to throw the ball away or dump the ball off to Forte when you don't have anything open.
So maybe Jeremy Bates is the right candidate because Cutler has openly admitted that he wants Bates for the job. Or maybe Mike Martz's pass happy offensive will help Cutler. But no matter who becomes the Bears next offensive coordinator, something drastic needs to be done to improve this offense. Either that or draft and pick up better offensive lineman this free agency. That helps as well.
Dayton Moron Likes Shitty White Sox Players
Previously, I pointed out that the Orioles have been a graveyard for washed up Cubs players in recent years. Kansas City is looking to be the White Sox equivalent (Moore has made more trades with Kenny Williams (now 5) than any other GM during his brief reign as GM of the Royals). According to MLBTradeRumors, the Royals are close to signing "a speedy outfielder" who is speculated to be Scott Podsednik. That would put the following ex-White Sox on the 25-man roster since Moore took over as GM in 2006:
C-Miguel Olivo
1B-Ross Gload
2B-Chris Getz*
3B-Josh Fields*
INF-Tony Graffanino
OF-Scott Podsednik*
OF-Brian Anderson*
SP-Kip Wells
RP-Horacio Ramirez
RP-David Riske
*-added this offseason
From this list, I see a bunch of utility players and DFA candidates. Is it possible to build a 25-man roster of White Sox-turned-Royals players since 2002? We've already got an infield.
If you make this a revolving door system and include the crap Kenny Williams has taken from the Royals, you could also add the following players to our hypothetical team:
3B-Mark Teahen
CL-Mike MacDougal
CL-Octavio Dotel
RP-Jimmy Gobble
RP-Andy Sisco
RP-D.J. Carrasco
C-Paul Phillips
C-Miguel Olivo
1B-Ross Gload
2B-Chris Getz*
3B-Josh Fields*
INF-Tony Graffanino
OF-Scott Podsednik*
OF-Brian Anderson*
SP-Kip Wells
RP-Horacio Ramirez
RP-David Riske
*-added this offseason
From this list, I see a bunch of utility players and DFA candidates. Is it possible to build a 25-man roster of White Sox-turned-Royals players since 2002? We've already got an infield.
If you make this a revolving door system and include the crap Kenny Williams has taken from the Royals, you could also add the following players to our hypothetical team:
3B-Mark Teahen
CL-Mike MacDougal
CL-Octavio Dotel
RP-Jimmy Gobble
RP-Andy Sisco
RP-D.J. Carrasco
C-Paul Phillips
Patrick Shart gets destroyed, scores 2 goals
Somehow, Sharp didn't die after getting his head taken off on this hit. Actually he didn't miss a shift. Actually he wont on to score 2 goals in the game. This isn't baseball where players are out for 2 months from sneezing(Sammy), carrying meat(Barmes), walking through glass screen(Pence), or sun tanning(Marty Cordova)
Free Kris Medlen
Last year, the Braves seemed content with a rotation consisting of Javier Vasquez (2.82 xFIP), Derek Lowe (4.19 xFIP), Tommy Hanson (4.15 xFIP), Jair Jurrjens (4.34 xFIP), and Kenshin Kawakami (4.61 xFIP). With the return of Tim Hudson (and his subsequent 3-year extension), one of those five became expendible. Despite Atlanta's best efforts to move Lowe this offseason, the odd man out was Javier Vasquez. Though Vasquez was moved for money (which was partially used to sign Troy Glaus), they also managed to receive a high quality pitching prospect (Aroyds Vizcaino) in return.
This sets up the 2010 Braves rotation as Hudson-Hanson-Lowe-Jurrjens-Kawakami. Not bad, but it could be better. Why? Lost in this mix is a hidden gem: Kris Medlen.
Kris Medlen, who dominated the minors in 2009 (1.66 FIP, 10.51 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 in AAA last season), was called up a few weeks prior to super prospect Tommy Hanson. In 4 MLB starts, Medlen posted an ugly 6.38 ERA, but the underlying numbers show something better. Despite his struggles with command when promoted (5.40 BB/9 in his 4 starts), Medlen still managed to fool his share of hitters (9.33 K/9, 77.8% contact rate (80.5% MLB average)) and keep the ball in the yard at a respectable rate (0.98 HR/9, 1.05 MLB average). Beneath the ugly ERA was a much less ugly 4.57 FIP/xFIP. After being moved to the bullpen, Medlen's contact rate fell to 75.3%, his strikeout rate rose to 9.67 per nine and the walk rate, which only once (AA, 2007) eclipsed 2.63 per nine in the minors, fell to an MLB-average 3.47 per nine.
The result? A stellar 2.89 FIP/3.38 xFIP in 49.1 IP from the pen. Medlen posted the 19th best FIP and 25th best xFIP of all MLB relievers who tossed 40+ innings last season (out of 176 RPs). By comparison, super closer Joe Nathan posted a 2.88 FIP last season. Yeah, Medlen is just that good. As the season progressed, Medlen just got better. Below are graphs for Medlen's K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and ERA as the season progressed (click the image for a clearer picture).
Though Medlen showed signs of fatigue as the season wound down, there is a clear trend of improvement in his numbers from May to mid-September. Despite these clear signs of improvement, the Braves kept Medlen banished to the bullpen (where he was effective, but underutilized). Since being promoted to a starter's gig in 2008, Medlen has posted a 2.87 FIP in AA and a 1.66 FIP in AAA, while sporting a K/BB of 4.44 and 4.40 at each respective level. Using his minor league numbers, Medlen's major league equivalent FIP as a starter in 2008, per Minor League Splits, was a solid 3.82. MLE data for 2009 is not available for Kris Medlen, but his luck/park neutralized FIP in AAA last year was 2.42.
Medlen sports three pitches: a devastating change up, a quality fastball and a league-average curveball. His arsenal is so effective not just because of the quality of his stuff, but also the effectively deceptive nature of his release point. Medlen's release point for his Fastball, Curveball and Change Up tend to look like this (taken from Medlen's 5/31/2009 start vs the Diamondbacks, click the image for a clearer picture):
What is noticeable here is a mix of pitches thrown from an almost identical release point, each with a sharply different level of velocity and movement. Such is how Medlen is able to so effectively fool hitters.
The moral of the story here? Kris Medlen is very good. He is much better than Kenshin Kawakami and Jair Jurrjens and probably even Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, despite the ERA disparity. The Braves are wasting a golden arm. If given another chance to start, Medlen could be one of the best fantasy sleepers for 2010.
This sets up the 2010 Braves rotation as Hudson-Hanson-Lowe-Jurrjens-Kawakami. Not bad, but it could be better. Why? Lost in this mix is a hidden gem: Kris Medlen.
Kris Medlen, who dominated the minors in 2009 (1.66 FIP, 10.51 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 in AAA last season), was called up a few weeks prior to super prospect Tommy Hanson. In 4 MLB starts, Medlen posted an ugly 6.38 ERA, but the underlying numbers show something better. Despite his struggles with command when promoted (5.40 BB/9 in his 4 starts), Medlen still managed to fool his share of hitters (9.33 K/9, 77.8% contact rate (80.5% MLB average)) and keep the ball in the yard at a respectable rate (0.98 HR/9, 1.05 MLB average). Beneath the ugly ERA was a much less ugly 4.57 FIP/xFIP. After being moved to the bullpen, Medlen's contact rate fell to 75.3%, his strikeout rate rose to 9.67 per nine and the walk rate, which only once (AA, 2007) eclipsed 2.63 per nine in the minors, fell to an MLB-average 3.47 per nine.
The result? A stellar 2.89 FIP/3.38 xFIP in 49.1 IP from the pen. Medlen posted the 19th best FIP and 25th best xFIP of all MLB relievers who tossed 40+ innings last season (out of 176 RPs). By comparison, super closer Joe Nathan posted a 2.88 FIP last season. Yeah, Medlen is just that good. As the season progressed, Medlen just got better. Below are graphs for Medlen's K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and ERA as the season progressed (click the image for a clearer picture).
Though Medlen showed signs of fatigue as the season wound down, there is a clear trend of improvement in his numbers from May to mid-September. Despite these clear signs of improvement, the Braves kept Medlen banished to the bullpen (where he was effective, but underutilized). Since being promoted to a starter's gig in 2008, Medlen has posted a 2.87 FIP in AA and a 1.66 FIP in AAA, while sporting a K/BB of 4.44 and 4.40 at each respective level. Using his minor league numbers, Medlen's major league equivalent FIP as a starter in 2008, per Minor League Splits, was a solid 3.82. MLE data for 2009 is not available for Kris Medlen, but his luck/park neutralized FIP in AAA last year was 2.42.
Medlen sports three pitches: a devastating change up, a quality fastball and a league-average curveball. His arsenal is so effective not just because of the quality of his stuff, but also the effectively deceptive nature of his release point. Medlen's release point for his Fastball, Curveball and Change Up tend to look like this (taken from Medlen's 5/31/2009 start vs the Diamondbacks, click the image for a clearer picture):
What is noticeable here is a mix of pitches thrown from an almost identical release point, each with a sharply different level of velocity and movement. Such is how Medlen is able to so effectively fool hitters.
The moral of the story here? Kris Medlen is very good. He is much better than Kenshin Kawakami and Jair Jurrjens and probably even Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, despite the ERA disparity. The Braves are wasting a golden arm. If given another chance to start, Medlen could be one of the best fantasy sleepers for 2010.
