The Most Exciting Game Of The Week: Week Five

This week, according to WPA and Advanced NFL Stats, the game with the best Excitement Rating (the only one with a E!R about 7.0) was the Washington Redskins upset of the Green Bay Packers.

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Game Of Inches Football Results: Week Five

Pigskin Pick 'Em

1) Sexy Rexy
Last Week: 6-8
Overall: 48-28
Clutch Game: Chicago over Carolina
WTF Games: N/A

1) The 'Bright' One
Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 48-28
Clutch Games: Washington over Green Bay, Philadelphia over San Fran
WTF Games: Minnesota over New York (A)

3) Cubsfan
Last Week: 6-8
Overall: 44-32
Clutch Games: St. Louis over Detroit
WTF: Carolina over Chicago

Game Of Inches Fantasy Football League

-Sexy Rexy (W)(4-1), 3rd overall, 2nd in Michelle Beadle division (#1 week leader in points. Again.)
-The 'Bright' One (W) (3-2), 6th overall, 3rd in Erin Andrews division
-Cubsfan4ver (L) (3-2), 7th overall, 4th in Erin Andrews division

2010 xBABIP Data

Attention fantasy freeriders everwhere. I've created a sortable stat sheet of 2010 xBABIP splits and projected batting lines for all 270 major league players who accrued 300+ plate appearances this season (sorry, Luis Castill0). You can download the data file, learn my methodology and see some sorted screen shots of the data sheet by going to my latest post on The Hardball Times.

Also, in case you are still reading at this point, all readers should note that I am managing the THT's Expert Fantasy League for 2011 (name subject to revision) and will be reserving a spot for one lucky fantasy baseball player. Details of contest entry requirements are murky at the moment (they will at least require you to "give me an original, funny fantasy baseball team name" -- ie, not one I have previously posted on this blog), but should come shortly. Keep an eye on the THT Fantasy Twitter in the meanwhile. League parameters are as follow:

• 12-Team, 5x5 standard auction draft
• Positions (28 to fill): C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, 5 OF, 2 UTIL, 3 SP, 2 RP, 4 P, 5 BN, 2 DL
• 1500 IP limit (subject to revision), 162-games played cap, no initial transaction limit but a 1 waiver transaction per day limit will be imposed following the trade deadline.
• The prize pool ($300) will be split 60%-30%-10% in a manner which has yet to be determined. The fan-entrant will not be required to pay a league fee.
• The winning entrant will get the opportunity to post a fantasy article (likely related to either (1) his entry into the league or (2) submission to join the league, depending on what we decide) on The Hardball Times.

And just in case you are wondering, there will be a 2011 edition of DME's Sexy Fantasy Baseball resources come Spring 2011.

The Greatest Football Game Ever Played

* in my opinion, and that I can remember

For those of you who follow fangraphs and sabermetrics pretty extensively, you know what WPA is. For those of who you do not, WPA stands for Win Probability Added. Let me try to explain this in extreme layman's terms. During the start of a baseball game, the exact odds one of the teams will win the game is 50%. I don't care if it's the Pittsburgh Pirates facing the New York Yankees, at the start of the game, the Pirates have a 50% change of winning that individual game. But throughout the course of the game, the odds a particular team wins the game changes. If Derek Jeter is the first batter of the game and he hits a home run, the odds of the Yankees winning the game slightly improve. There are still 27 outs for each team to work with so the Yankees don't get a huge edge at that point in the game, but their odds do increase and the score is becomes 1-0.

However, if the score is tied, it's the top of the 9th, and Derek Jeter hits a home run to lead off the inning, well the odds that the Yankees will win the game increase dramatically. In both instances the Pirates are down by one run but the odds they can come back to win the game are different because of the amount of outs they have to work with.

The odds a team wins the game is how to determine WPA. According to Fangraphs, the definition of WPA is

the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play.

And how each player does to affect the odds of his team winning the game helps goes into determine his indivudal WPA. According to Fangraphs:

That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.

Here's an example Fangraphs gives to help quantify this:

In Game 4 of the 2007 World Series, the WE for the Rockies started out at 50%. When Jacoby Ellsbury doubled off Aaron Cook in the very first at-bat in the game, the Rockies WE declined to 44.2%. The difference or WPA was .058 wins (5.8%). Ellsbury was credited +.058 wins and Aaron Cook credited with -.058 wins.

This same exact approach can also be applied to football.

In 1988, Bob Carroll, John Thorn, and Pete Palmer became the Bill James of football. That year they published and released the book The Hidden Game Of Football which was the world's first introduction to advanced statistics for football. This book sets the foundation for websites like Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Statistics.

In the book, they talk about the odds a team most likely is to win a game. In baseball, all you have is 27 outs per team to score as many runs as possible. Therefore, the three main factors to determine WPA are: how many outs are there left in the game, how did you get on base/ who is already on base, and what the score of the game is. However, in football, you not only have to deal with the clock, but you also have to deal with downs. Therefore, there are five main factors that goes into football WPA: what the score of the game is, how many downs are left, how many yards did the last play gain, where you are on the field, and how much time is there left to play.

In baseball, a home run to lead off the game has a far less impact on the WPA of the game that a home run to break a tie in the 9th inning. In football, a 20 yard pass to start the game has a far less impact that a 20 yard pass to start your last drive on the game in a tie. Along similar lines, a three yard rush on 1st and ten has a far less impact on a team's WPA than a three yard rush on 3rd and two. Along more similar lines, the aforementioned play has less of an impact than a three yard rush on the second to last play of the game allowing your kicker to kick a 47 yard field goal as opposed to a 50 yard field goal to win the game.

The Hidden Game Of Football laid out in detail the odds of scoring points. Plus, basic logic says it's a lot harder to drive 99 yards down field to score a TD than 49 yards. In fact, it's this logic that's it's not necessarily a bad idea to go for a TD on 4th and 1. Because if you don't convert the 4th down to score, you still have a pretty good chance to score again due to the fact that it's EXTREMELY hard for your opposing team to score so most likely you have have great field possession on your next drive to score again. For anyone that saw Week One Bears vs. Lions, this happened. Matt Forte and the Bears failed to convert 4th and 1 so the Lions got possession of the ball on their own one yard line. They failed to make a first down to the Bears got great field possession on their next possession. In fact this happened for like three straight drives- this back and forth. (I'm sure this has happened at least once to every NFL franchise and/or it's opponent)

Now that I have briefly explained what WPA is, I will now show you what I think is the greatest football game I have ever seen: and that was the Week Six game between the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals in 2006. This also led to my favorite post season rant of all time. "The Bears are who we thought they were!". Here is the WPA for that game:



At halftime, the Arizona Cardinals had essentially locked this game up. With 5:53 left to play, the Cardinals were winning 23-10. At this point, the Cardinals had a 99.97% of winning this game. Then, 42 seconds later, Brian Urlacher recovers an Edgrerrin James fumble and scores a touchdown. However, at this point, the Cardinals still had a 66% chance of winning this game (as the score was still 23-17 in Arizona's favor). Then with 3:17 left to play, Devin Hester returns a punt for a touchdown giving the Bears their first lead of the game 24-23. Within a matter of about two minutes, the Cardinals go from a 66% chance of winning down to a 66% chance of losing. But Arizona got the ball back and marched down field. At the 1:04 mark, that 66% chance of losing rose to 78% chance of winning. Even if Arizona doesn't get a touchdown, they still get an easy field goal to win the game 26-24. But as Neil Rackers kicked a 40 yard field goal with 52 seconds left to play, the ball went wide left and the field goal attempt was no good. And with that kick, Arizona's 78% chance of winning the game went to a 2% chance of the winning the game. And 52 seconds and a few kneel downs later, that 2% diminished to 0%.

Now those two numbers in the bottom right corner indicate the's game Excitement Rating (out of 10.0) and Comeback Rating (out of 100). According to the WPA, the excitement rating was just below average, but the comeback rating was perfect. So you can make the argument that this wasn't the greatest game ever, but just the greatest comeback. Sure, you can make that argument.

Source of WPA and a the WPA chart: Advanced NFL Stats

EPILOGUE

Now I hope this post also gave you a great introduction into WPA- for both players and teams. In baseball, we don't use WPA to determine who the best player is, we use a great stat called WAR- which takes into account the quality of a player's offense and defense and compounds it into a nice round number for us. But football does not have that statistic and it probably never will. As Bill Bramwell, co-author of Football Outsiders, says on the Freakonomics blog:

We’re nowhere near the point of valuing a player as being worth a number of wins, because we’re light-years away from quantifying all the things a player does. I doubt we’ll ever have a reliable “wins” metric because there are too many interactions between positions that we can’t account for in football. Take a quarterback, for example: even if we were to develop a measure of performance that stripped out the effects of his receivers and offensive line and placed his passing performance in a perfect, league-average context, we’d have to account for how he read defenses and called audibles at the line, how effective he was in setting up defenses on the play-fake, whether he had any impact on the running game versus an average quarterback … it’s not a realistic goal.

WAR can help determine exactly how many wins a particular player contributes to his team in baseball. But because of the dependent nature of football, we will probably never get to that point. However, WPA comes really close. Although we can't account for the audible a QB makes to switch from a pass play to a run play so his RB can gain ten yards, we can account for actual results that occur.

And let's face it, all we want are results. We want to see our team's offense drive down the field to score points and we want to see out team's defense stop the opponent from scoring points. We don't really care how that result occurs (although we love to argue about it) as long as it does. And that's why I think WPA is a great step in the right direction to help isolate how players have performed.

But like I said, WPA is not the end all, be all. Advanced NFL Stats also has a stat called EPA (Expected Points Added) and Football Outsiders have some great stats called DVOA and DYAR. I also don't think this has a very good predictive element at all so I wouldn't use it for fantasy purposes or for predicting statistics the year after. But I think they are great statistics for helping you explain the past.

TBS's Elite Scouting Report

They forgot "old man has old man's hip."

There Is No Elite NFC Team

As of right now, all the best team in the NFL, the ones that are considered the cream of the crop, are all in the AFC.

The term "elite" is hard to define. It's like how Justice Potter defined pornography, "I know it when I see it." When I think of elite, it's just a gut, instinctual feeling I get. As a stat guy and a stat blog, it's kind of difficult to write that, but football is less statistical orientated than a sport like baseball. Football is more of a sport you have to watch with your eyes. Bill Barnwell, writer of the best football statistical site right now, Football Outsiders, believes there will never come a day will you can determine how many wins a player is worth. In baseball, we already have that statistic- WAR. But in football, we can't have that statistic because all the pieces have to work together.

As great as Peyton Manning is, he still needs to have (at minimum) five guys block in front of him. He still needs receivers to catch his perfect passes (kind of, I mean Austin freaking Collie is third in the NFL in receiving yards), and he still needs 11 guys on the field to prevent points from being scored (well, SOME points). It's these interweaving parts that determines whether the team gets a W or an L, not just one individual.

And it's these interweaving parts that you have to look at to determine not only how good a team is, but whether a team can be considered elite.

The most important statistic at the end of the day is a win or a loss. You're offense can put up crazy statistical numbers, but if you lose, all those numbers don't mean squat. In fact, in football, if a quarterback tends to put up gaudy; great-fantasy-football numbers, it's almost assuredly that team lost. Jay Cutler went to the pro bowl because the Denver Broncos were down in most of their games in 2008 so Cutler had to throw to try and make up points as quickly, efficiently, and effectively as possible. In fact, Cutler's great year led to an 8-8 record while missing the post-season. It's also kind of like the one guy on a really bad basketball team that seems to put Kobe-lite numbers- I mean, SOMEBODY has to score.

In an ideal world, the best team will be able to score the most amount of points while preventing the most amount of points. But we don't live in an ideal world. But this baseline helps me to determine what factors should be considered to determine elite teams. They are: passing offensive, rushing offense, passing defense, rushing defense, and special teams. I don't know how I would rank the following but in some order I would look at these five factors in how they affect scoring.

But my two most important factors to determine what an elite team is: record and how many points you put up vs the quality of your opponent (i.e. how you won/lost). Kind of like the BCS. And just like the BCS, open to scrutiny.

First, what is your record? At the end of the day, all you need to do is win the game. Any professional player will tell you, it doesn't matter what their stat line is as long as they win. And if you're an elite team, you find a way to win. Are the New England Patriots considered the best NFL team ever after starting off 18-0? Are the Detroit Lions (0-4) even considered a top 15 team because they lost so many close games? Not at all. Because you just need to win.

But it's not only winning, but how good do you look while winning. Part of being an elite team, means you absolutely trounce the teams you should beat and you eek out close wins against other very good teams. Now being elite does not and should not mean that you are perfect. Every Superbowl winner since 1972 has lost an least ONE regular season game. But the less games you lose, and the closer the score is between the two teams at the end of a day in a loss, helps determine how elite you are. There's no shame when you lose by 1 against a great opponent (as long as you don't do it often)

It's these main two criteria that I determine to see who is elite.

And right now, there is no elite NFC team.

Right now I submit that there are only four teams that can even be remotely in the conversation for being elite: Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and the Chicago Bears.

My first criteria I look for is record, and all of the aforementioned teams have one loss.

The Seattle Seahawks are leading their division with a 2-2 record, but being the tallest midget doesn't mean you can play basketball in the NBA. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers only have one loss, but they defeated the Cleveland Browns (only by three) and the Carolina Panthers. They got trounced by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now granted the teams the Bucs have played are at the extreme ends of the spectrum. There's no shame in losing to probably a top three team and they still should defeat the Panthers (who are probably bottom three) and Cleveland. But they weren't even close to being in it against the Steelers and they should have destroyed the Browns to be considered elite. Lastly, we get to the Redskins and Eagles. The Eagles would be on this list if week four hadn't been played because they lost a close one to Green Bay, a potential elite team. But you can't lose against Donovan McNabb. You just can't. And the Redskins lost to the Rams. The Rams might win the NFC West, but St. Louis was 0-2 when Washington played them and only won one game in 2009. Again, to be elite, you not only HAVE to beat the Rams, but blow them out of the water.

Now we get to our four contenders. We can easily cross the Bears off of the list because they only have one sure fire win- and that's against the Cowboys. A bullshit rule prevented the Lions from taking Game One from the Bears, and 18 penalties caused the Packers to barely lose. And they got demolished by the Giants. Again, I consider how you win important. Just barely beating the Packers is acceptable, but not when the Packers shoot themselves in the foot and lose within the last minute of the game by a field goal. I know the good teams have breaks go there way (in all sports) but this has just been kind of ridiculous. Plus the Bears do not look good going forward if Cutler misses more significant time.

Speaking of Green Bay, I don't put them in this elite class. If you're elite, you have to beat you're arch rivals, the Bears, on Monday night. This game should not have been close. Elite teams don't shoot themselves in the foot. Now beating the Eagles with a rejuvenated Michael Vick is a great win, but the Bears loss and Lions win negate that. The Packers only beat the Lions by 2 points. If you want to be considered elite you have to beat the Lions by at least 14 points. The Lions are better and are playing better than recent Matt Millen memory, but they're still a bottom five NFL team. Which means you can't just barely squeak by them.

The Saints are not the same Saints as their great 2009, Superbowl winning counterpart. In fact, I'm not convinced they're a top ten team. They're just skating by on their reputation. Last year the Saints could score via offense or defense. This year they aren't doing either. Right now the Saints are tied for 13th place in total points scored. In fact, the Detroit Lions have scored more points that the Saints right now. They're also just an average defense also ranking 13th in points allowed. And their wins show it. They barely beat a winless San Fran team, they only beat the Vikings by five (and we realize what a crappy quality team the Vikings are now when the Saints played them), they only won by two against a Jimmy Clausen led Panthers team, and they were defeated by their division foes the Atlanta Falcons. All these factors combined make for just an above average New Orleans team.

Lastly, we get to the Atlanta. In my mind, this is the closest team in the NFC to being elite. As much as I just trashed on the Saints, I still believe they're a top three team in the NFC and the Falcons defeated them. They absolutely trounced a shitty Cardinals team (41-7) and they went into overtime against the Steelers and lost by a crazy long Rashard Mendenhall TD run. They do however have one black mark- and that's that they almost lost to San Fransisco. Now great teams find a way to win but if Nate Clement had not pulled a 2006 Marlon McCree, the Falcons would be 2-2.

Now Atlanta is top 10 in the NFL in points allowed on defense and points scored, but I don't know, I just can't trust Matt Ryan (13th in the NFL in passer rating), they're only 19th in pass defense, and 11th in run defense. These numbers are very good, but they don't scream, "ELITE" to me. Call me a hater, call me what you will, but I can't put the Falcons in the same category as the Jets, Ravens, or Steelers yet. On a neutral field, I think those three teams nine out of ten times defeat the Falcons. I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFC, but not an elite team.

I think the only elite team are the Ravens, Steelers, and Jets. The Chiefs and Texans (as well as the Packers and Falcons) have a chance to move into that class. But not right now.

The end.

P.S. if you don't know who Marlin McCree is, he's the San Diego CB that New England's Troy Brown stripped to defeat the Chargers in the 2006 AFC Championship game after McCree had intercepted a Tom Brady pass.If McCree had just laid down instead of trying to make a play, the Chargers would have won that game.

Best Randy Moss Quote Ever

No, it's not any 2010 rants about how he's not going to be a New England Patriot



Yes, I realize I'm like five years too late on this, but a buddy of mine put this up on his facebook page and it's so good and with Randy Moss in the news, I needed to post it.

Random Football Notes

Here some random facts that are interesting in how surprising they are:

- Not only is Brandon Lloyd second in the NFL in receiving yards, he only has 2 less yards than the league leader- Reggie Wayne
- In a league that has Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, the league rushing leader is Arian Foster. And he has over 100 more yards than second place Rashard Mendenhall.
- Run DMC hasn't sucked this year. Hell, that's surprising to me
- Mark Sanchez also doesn't suck. And I saw him play in Week One.
- Michael Vick has looked like an awesome football player
- Laughing lowers levels of stress hormones and strengthens the immune system. Six-year-olds laugh an average of 300 times a day. Adults only laugh 15 to 100 times a day. No one laughs at my jokes.
- The Indianapolis Colts have two loses. The Chicago Bears have one. The Kansas City Chiefs have none.
- Speaking of the Bears, when Jay Cutler is healthy, they actually look like they have a top offense.
- The Rays, a team that looked like the best team in the MLB regular season will probably get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
- I actually beat DME in a fantasy baseball league. Probably the first and last time this will ever happen.
- London Fletcher is consistently top five in the NFL in tackles- and the same holds true through the first four games
- A defense Seattle Seahawks player actually has some good stats- Chris Clemons has the fifth most sacks in the NFL
- I got offered Shonn Grenne in exchange for LT. And I turned it down. Even more surprising, I probably made the right decision.
- Every time you sneeze some of your brain cells die. Every time you utter the words, 'Wow Joe Morgan/ John Madden, that was very insightful' a little bit of your soul dies.
- Matt Hasselbeck has more rushing TDs than Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Mo Jo, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, and Jamaal Charles
- If you are right handed, you will tend to chew your food on your right side. If you are left handed, you will tend to chew your food on your left side.
- Matt Forte is awful in the red zone. Oh wait, that's the exact opposite of surprising.
- Someone named "Austin" is #3 in receiving yards- and his first name is not "Miles". It's Austin Collie.

Hunter Wendelstedt's Yanks/Twins Strike(kinda) Zone

From Brooks Baseball via Deadspin. For those not colorblind, red were called strikes and green called ball. Different interpretations find between 28 to 31 clear missed calls, including a green box smack dab in the middle of the strike zone, corresponding to a cutter down the middle to Derek Jeter that was called a ball. Also that strike 3 called a ball to Lance Berkman on the inside corner just before launching a home run. I'm going to enjoy baseball with no umpires on the field one day.

"The rest of us will go on waiting patiently for the removal of the human element known as Bud Selig"

Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Rankings For Week Five

You can see my rankings here

EDITOR'S NOTE: All rankings are now correct

Top FX Shows Of 2010

I was listening to The Film Vault podcast today (an Adam Corolla offshoot podcast, and only because I was caught up on my Fantasy Focus and I forgot to download new B.S. Report) and as you guessed it, it's a podcast dedicated only to movies. The host was criticized because in last week's podcast, he was doing a fantasy football draft in the middle of the show- a show dedicated only to movies. Now I personally liked it. Not only because I'm a huge fantasy football fan, but because it was a nice change of pace from the monotony of the movies talk.

It's this same logic that makes Bill Simmons, Matthew Berry, and podcasts with myself and The "Bright" One so entertaining- talking about one subject is very boring. You have to add pop culture references and witty banter to a subject to make it interesting. (Although this analogy doesn't REALLY hold up for a podcast dedicated to movies- an integral part of pop culture- but you get my point.)

Which is why, on a sports blog, I will discuss TV shows- in particular, TV Shows on FX. Now this is not a novel concept (mainly by me) seeing as last year GOI did a poll about the greatest characters on TV at the time and I did a list of the top 50 stand up comedians of our generations. But what can I say, I love to babel and go on tangents.

As of this writing, the best network to produce TV shows right now is FX. USA shows are a big guilty pleasure of mine an I love Monday night comedy on CBS (How I Met Your Mother, Two And A Half Men, The Big Bang Theory) and Thursday night comedy on NBC (30 Rock, The Office, Parks and Rec, Community)- but as a whole, those and all cable networks put out consistent crap. There's one network right now completing 70% of its passes, hitting .400, has a 98% free throw percentage (look, sports references! Also, the network isn't perfect) and that's FX.

In 2010, the network continues to put out great show after great show and the vast majority of them are awesome. And a great part of their network is that they put all of their shows On Demand (take a hint ABC) so you can watch them at one in the morning when you can't sleep. Not that I do that. Maybe.

So now I'm here to guide you through this great river of TV wonder.

1) The League Thursday/10:30

-Why draft Felix Jones in the 5th when you can get the same production from Ricky Williams in the 9th?
-Thank you stripper!

Advice I did not follow because I drafted Jones.

This story follows 6 guys in an 8 team fantasy football league (I know eight teams is pretty lame, but you get over it). Surprisingly, the main part of the show is not the fantasy football aspect of it, but how these guys just interact with each other and how they interact with their wives/ significant others/ dates. The fantasy football league (at least in the first season) is mainly the glue that connects these guys and gives them an excuse to hang out together. Even if you do not follow fantasy football, although you won't get 100% of the jokes, the show is still a riot.

The humor is pretty low brow, so if you're a stuck up comedy snob, this show is not for you. But if you enjoy the comedy styling of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia or old Judd Apatow movies, this show is right up your alley. Very few shows literally make me laugh out loud, and The League is one of them. The show mainly follows around five guys from the shows inception (they add the 6th in season two) and they have great chemistry which works for because many of the jokes are ad libbed.

I will say though, and TBO had to tell me this, right now The League is currently on it's second season. Go out and watch all 6 episodes of the first season before you start watching the second.

P.S. Josh Cribbs is starting on a dude's team in an episode and one guy asks is wife if he should start Ricky Williams or Toby Gerhart. I don't think Cribbs or Gerhart is even owned in the 14 team GOI league, nevertheless in a measly eight team league.

2) Justified Expected to come back in 2011

Dear Lord, before we eat this meal we ask forgiveness for our sins, especially Boyd- who blew up a black church with a rocket launcher, and afterwards he shot his associate Jared Hale in the back of the head out on Tate's Creek bridge

I did a mid-season, best shows of 2010 rankings and Justified was number three on my list (behind Mad Men and 30 Rock) which you can read here. Essentially it follows around a U.S. Marshall Kentucky man named Raylan Givens (played by Timothy Olyphant).

This show is the quintessential guy show. Raylan Givens is the master of the Man Cards and he can take yours away if you don't act like him. He spends half the show either shooting at people, killing them, or threatening to hurt them. The other half he spends it boning a childhood friend of his whom just shot her deadbeat, wife-beating husband.

But Raylan Givens is also a well developed character. You get to know the back story of his good-for-nothing, two-timing father, his ex-wife whom Raylan loves very deeply, and his relationship with the people he works with (mainly his boss).

Unlike the crappier NBC version of this show currently playing called Chase, this show is not only creative, but well written and has heart. Plus a lot of shit getting blown up and people getting shot.

3) It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia Thursdays/ 10:00

You can't nullify a contract by eating it!

Admittedly I was probably the last person to get on board the It's Always Sunny bandwagon. Everyone who had seen the show RAVED about it but I couldn't get into it. Then DME showed me an episode, after a year of law school, about eating contracts. And then right then and then I was hooked. Even coming from me, if you haven't seen It's Always Sunny right now, either stop reading this and go watch like ten episodes or just go away (for PC purposes I won't say the exact words I want to, but hopefully you can read in between the lines.)

The best way I can describe the show is it's an EXTREMELY raunchy and inappropriate Seinfeld. And it really fits the bill perfectly.

Trust me, it's hilarious

4) Archer Reportedly coming back in January of 2011

- Lana. Lana. Lana. Lana. Lana. Lana. LAAANNNAA!
- What!?
- DANGER ZONE!

During my mid season rankings, I ranked Archer as my 10th favorite show.

For anyone who actually knows who H. Jon Benjamin is or knows what the show Frisky Dingo is about, you're already hooked on this show. Benjamin is a great voice actor who was on some great Adult Swim shows like Home Movies and Lucy: Daughter of the Devil. He's also the other dude who's kinda short and fat on Demetri Martin's show Important Things. Even if you haven't heard of him, he's hilarious.

The show follows super agent Sterling Archer (voiced by H. Jon Benjamin) as he interacts with his super hot co-worker/ former lover Lana Kane (voiced by Aisha Tyler), his mom (voiced by Jessica Walter) who also runs the agency (and the reason Archer still has a job) and Lana's current boyfriend who's an accountant for the agency Cyril Figgins (voiced by Chris Parnell)

Imagine if Austin Powers was actually smooth and a complete douchenozzle who says inappropriate things at the right time. You got some idea of who Sterling Archer is. Despite it's Adult Swim humor and clearly geared towards 16-29 year old (even though my dad loves the show as well), it actually sneaks in a handful of really smart Jon Stewart-esque jokes in there.

The only reason this show isn't higher is because a handful of episodes in season one were pretty bad, but there were also a handful of fantastic ones that made the show. The only reason this show isn't lower because my friends and I quote it all the time. Mainly the "Danger Zone" quote.

5) Terriers Wednesday/10:00

I've only seen a few episodes and I don't remember/ can't find any good quotes so none for this section :(

For those of who who actually watched/ remember Grounded For Life, I think you'll already on the right track for this show- because both star Donal Logue (like Topher Grace, he's just too cool for school to have a full, normal name)

I will say that I enjoy this show, I think Logue is really funny on the show, I love the chemistry he has between him and his co-star Michael Raymond-James, and the show takes a creative take on the whole P.I./ Cop drama that's both entertaining and character driven,

But I'll leave it up to a real TV critic, Alan Sepinwall's (as featured on The B.S. Report) hitfix.com buddy Daniel Feinberg to explain it best

6) Louie Season just ended, watch it at FX.com or On Demand

This is the worst thing that's ever happened to me, and my dad hung himself in front of me, while masturbating

I gotta say, I think Louie is by far and away the worst show on FX this year (that I've seen). I know every single critic from Alan Sepinwall to Ken Tremendous from the blog formally known as Fire Joe Morgan loves it. Everyone who's a critic seems to think this is the funniest show on television right now and deserves every award Jesus can cum out. But I gotta tell ya, I don't see it.

Listen, I'm a Louis C.K. fan. I love his stand up and I was just as excited as anyone to watch this show when it came out. And when I was bored at night, I would watch Louie so I've seen practically every single episode, and I flat out just don't like it.

It's written, directed, and starring Louie C.K.- and I think that's a gift and a curse. It's a gift in the sense that Louie C.K. ha complete creative control so he can do whatever he wants- and he can do it for cheap so the studio is essentially always making a profit on the show no matter what. It's a curse, because I think Louie should just have a say in the creative process, but have people who are more experienced/ actually know what they are doing to write and/or direct the show.

I think the premises and ideas are funny, but I think they're poorly executed. I think scenes go on too long, Louie can just be too awkward (The Larry David effect on Curb), and Louie seems more content making statements on how Americans date and interact with each other more than just be funny.

But there is one saving grace to the show, and it's the same reason I'll even consider watching the aforementioned Demetri Martin show- and that's the stand up on the show. Louie C.K. is still a phenomenal stand up so the third to half time he does stand up on the show, I really enjoy and laugh at it.

7) Sons of Anarchy Tuesdays/10:00

I don't watch this show so I'm not going to be a hater and judge it. But I will say it looks really bad, I don't know anyone who watches it, and I have absolutely no desire to see any episode. But for what it's worth Alan Sepinwall said on a recent Simmons podcast he likes it. But he also didn't praise The League THAT much.

Sexy Rexy's Worthless MLB Playoffs Predictions

We here at GOI think that predictions for anything are pretty worthless. The nature and beauty of sports is that you don't know what's going to happen. You take the "greatest" experts in the world and make them play the Pick Em and Beat The Streaks games and I'm sure they'll do just decent at best. It's even worse for baseball playoffs because of the small sample size of the playoffs games.

But with that being said, here are my predictions for the Divisional Series

- Minnesota over New York
- Tampa Bay over Texas
- San Fransisco over Atlanta
- Philadelphia over Cincinnati

I will say, on paper, the four AL playoff teams look like the best four teams in a given playoffs race in recent memory. It's so hard to find a flaw in any of these teams. Sure, you could come up with them- there are question marks after C.C. in the Yankees rotation, Cliff Lee isn't the same pitcher he was since he got traded, etc. But I refuse to believe any of that.

I think all four teams have great rotations with a legitimate ace at the top if it. And I also like at least the 2 and 3 guys in all these teams rotations. Sure Pettitte and Hughes are quote unquote question marks, but let me give you another example of some question marks. In 2008, John Danks and Gavin Floyd were considered question marks and they ended up breaking out and having great seasons. Sure, I don't trust guys like Hughes, CJ Wilson, and Jeff Niemann. But after the damn fine years all these guys have had, would it really be a surprise to you if they go out and throw 7 IP 1 ER ball? Not me.

I also like all these teams bullpens. In a "down year" the Yankees still have a hall of fame close in Mariano Rivera. Rafeal Soriana and Neftali Feliz are top five in the AL in saves and have shut down stuff, and Minnesota has the other 26 teams closers.

And hitting, woo boy, these teams got that. The middle of that Texas line up with Josh Hamilton, Vlad, and Nelson Cruz might be the best offense in the playoffs. And you still have the Yankee payroll/ line up. Sure they're dinged up, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet against them scoring runs a short series, would you? The Rays can be shut out/no hit, but (on paper) you look up and down that line up and it's still a murder's row. And lastly the with Twins, they don't have the pop like the other three teams, but they can get on base and just keep hitting singles after singles after doubles after singles to keep innings alive. In fact in terms of WAR in the AL, Yankees are 1, Twins are 2, Rays are 4, and the Rangers are 7th.

And a similar situation emerges when you look at team defense. In terms of AL UZR/150, the are #1, Twins are 3rd, Yankees are 5th, and Rangers are 6th- and of course all have positive UZR/150.

You look at a team like the Giants and they have (probably) the best pitching staff in baseball but glaring problems and defense (especially in the outfield) and don't have the greatest line up outside of Buster Posey. But when you look at the four AL teams, all four scare me and I struggle to find legitimate problems with each team.

Love The Refs Reaaction After Getting Fondled

Box Score Tonight: Week Four/ MNF Edition

• Patriots destroy the Dolphins in Miami 41-14
  
• All the ways the Patriots scored on Monday: Field goal, rushing TD, passing TD, kick return TD, blocked FG returned for a TD, and pick six.
  
• All the ways Miami scored: passing TDs. Not as cool.
  
• Brady earned his 100^th win as ESPN told me this every five minutes. Even as a Boston fan I can only take Brady love so far.
  
• Before this game started Keyshawn Johnson said Miami would win because they want and need this win more. I had an argument with my friend Bennett while watching this game. He says he believes in Keyshawn and that Miami does want this win more and that will help them to play better. It turns out Miami's "will to win" equated to being pancaked by the Patriots offensive line, Chad Henne making poor decisions, and putting up the worst special teams performance in recent memory.
  
• I guess if the Patriots weren't so lazy and nonchalant and not really caring about this game they wouldn't have won by ONLY 27. If the Patriots wanted this win more they would have won by 50. Stupid teams not having enough emotions to win.
  
• If I told you in this game one quarterback put up 302 yards and the other put up 153, which one would you have guessed? That's right! Henne is the former and Brady is the latter. Although it makes sense because the Dolphins got down early and needed to throw to make up yards. Henne also has a 2/3 TD/INT ratio versus Brady's 1/0
  
• When I graduate from law school I'm actually going to name my law firm BenJarvis Green-Ellis. Or maybe Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce. With Maroney traded and Kevin Faulk and Fred Taylor injured, The Law Firm gets 76 yards on 16 carries (a damn fine 4.8 YPC) and the rushing TD
  
• When Danny Woodhead (a back up RB because the Patriots can't have less than five on its team apparently) scored the receiving TD. I went to Wikipedia to look up his height because he looked so short compared to EVERYONE else on the field. Now I know why: Wikipedia said his height was 5'1". It also said his weight was 600 lbs. Why is Wikipedia always right?
  
• He's really 5'9"
  
• Wes Welker looked amazing (8/10 for 70 yards) and Randy Moss (0/1 0 yards) did not. Maybe giving long winded speeches about your future career when you're 33 years old is not a good idea.
  
• This week Ronnie Brown (11) got more carries but Ricky Williams (8) was the better back. 56 yards and a 7.0 YPC for Williams and a 27 yard 2.7 YPC night for Brown. Williams gets a receiving TD.
  
• My normal starting wide outs in the 14 team GOI league are Andre Johnson and Steve Breaston. TBO criticized at the end of the draft for having crappy back ups. Well, to start this week I had Brandon Lloyd and Devone Bess. They scored 32 points between the. Bess looked amazing (9/12 for 93 yards and a TD) and I promise I'm not just saying that because he helped me dominate this week. (OK, maybe I am a little. But he did look good good as a possession receiver)
  
• Brandon Marshall looked like the best coach in the game figured out a great game plan to stop him. 5/8 for 50 yards.

Box Score Tonight: Week Four/ Late Games Edition

• Seeing as how I'm biased against the Bears we'll start with the SNF game where Giants upset the Bears 17-3
  
• I actually liked Mike Martz' quick throws game plan in the beginning of the game. To defeat DeMarcus Ware and Dallas' pass rush Cutler threw some quick slants and throws which forced men back into coverage and thus gave Cutler more time to throw. I'm convinced Cutler got his concussion earlier after hearing guys like Jim Miller and Da Coach report how Cutler was missing wide open guys/ holding on to the ball too long after like the 4^th/5^th sack. As TBO texted me: "How do the Bears know Cutler has a concussion? He always looks concussed."
  
• I've always been a Matt Forte guy but with another low YPC game (2.2 against the Giants) I need to want to see more of Chester Taylor (7.3). I'm starting to think Matt Forte is a healthy Reggie Bush- really good receiver, great in the open field, can't run through the tackles.
  
• Ahmad Bradshaw (129 yards on 23 carries and 1 TD) and Brandon Jacobs (62 yards on 6 carries and a TD) prove to me that the reason the Bears rush defense looked so good in the first three games because of the limited carries/ bad backs they faced.
  
• Hakeem Nicks has surpassed Steve Smith as the Giants #1 wide out. 8/9 for 110 yards.
  
• The backside of a barn got pissed that Derek Anderson couldn't hit so Max Hall comes in halfway through the game. Larry Fitzgerald has every right o pull a dive-T.O. right now. Both QBs had 14 attempts. Hall completed 8, Anderson 7. "Matt Leinart sucks!"
  
• Hightower gets 7 carries. Wells gets 5. I want no part of any Arizona offensive player in fantasy.
  
• Philip Rivers is almost perfect with his 148.1 passer rating.
  
• If only someone said they weren't a Ryan Matthews guy in the beginning of the season and told you to stay away? Hmmm. Mike Tolbert gets 16 carries to Matthews 9 and had 45 more rushing yards (although an essentially identical YPC) and both gets TDs
  
• If you didn't know Antonio Gates was the best TE in the league right now, his 7/7, 144 yards and 2 TDs should tell you.
  
• Washington upsets Philly 17-12- no thanks to butterfingers Jason Avant dropping a Hail Mary pass for Kevin Koln in the end zone as time expired.
  
• If the god killing era in Philly over? Vick leaves the game early with a rib injury and Kevin Kolb looks like Todd Collins
  
• LeSean McCoy leads all Philly players in rushing attempts (16), rushing yards (64), targets (15), catches (12), receiving yards (110), and looking like a healthy Brian Westbrook
  
• DeSean Jackson's longest catch (out of his 3) of the night was 7. I feel like there's a "0" missing at the end of that
  
• Josh Scobee kicks a 59 yards field goal and time expires as the Jaguars defeat the Colts 31-28
  
• Mo Jo finally acts like an elite running back and gets 105 yards on 26 carries and a TD
  
• David Garrard portrays a 2007 version of himself, 127.7 passer rating 2/0 TD/INT ratio but only 163 yards.
  
• Mike Sims-Walker must be drunk or something because he can not string together two straight good weeks. Mike Thomas is becoming Jags new #1 wide out. Yippee.
  
• Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Joseph Addai are all extremely talented. Austin Collie is now added to this list.
  
• Even after being benched for a quarter, Arian Foster gets 131 yards, a TD, on only 16 carries.
  
• Derrick Ward gets 12 carries (and a TD) to Steve Slaton' 5 in Foster's absence/ being on the sidelines getting oxygen. Can the Texans just trade Slaton already? Jesus, in China when you don't like your kid you put her up for adoption and *BOOM!* no more responsibilities.
  
• With Andre Johnson being injured TE Joel Dreessen and Arian Foster are the Texans top 2 receivers.
  
• Everyone continues to throw on probably the worst pass defense in the NFL. Bruce Gradkowski (16 fantasy points for me this week) follows suit.
  
• Zach Miller plays like the top ten TE people thought he would be: 11/13 with 122 yards and a TD
  
• Run DMC plays like the McFadden of old: 47 yards on 12 attempts
  
• Lord I love bye weeks, less BST games for me!
  

Game Of Inches Football Results: Week Four

Pigskin Pick 'Em

Our picks for week four:

Please click to enlarge.

1) Sexy Rexy
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 42-20
Clutch Games: Baltimore over Pittsburgh
WTF Games: N/A

2) The 'Bright' One
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 41-21
Clutch Games: St. Louis over Seattle and Baltimore over Pittsburgh.
WTF Games: N/A

3) Cubsfan4evr1
Last Week: 7-7
Overall: 38-24
Clutch Games: N/A--the reason why I only have 7 wins this week.
WTF Games: Pittsburgh over Baltimore.

Week Four results:

Game Of Inches Fantasy Football League

- Sexy Rexy (W) (3-1), 3rd overall, 2nd in the Michelle Beadle division (#1 overall in points)
- TBO (L) (2-2), 7th overall, 4th in the Erin Andrews division
- Cubsfan (W) (3-1), 5th overall, 2nd in the Erin Andrews division


A Summary how the three of us have been doing in the league:

DME's End Of Season Awards

AL
MVP: Josh Hamilton (TEX) -- Highest hitter WAR, despite only playing 5/6 months of the season? Yeah, he deserves it.

Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SEA) -- To heck with ERA and Wins. Hernandez's 2010 was better than his 2009, which was already undeniably elite.

ROY: Neftali Feliz (TEX) -- Agree with Sexy Rexy, but maybe it's because I have a deep seeded hatred for Austin Jackson.

SOY: David Price (TB)

Rolaids Reliever: Matt Thornton (CHW) -- Sorry Joakim Soria, but Thorton was the AL's Carlos Marmol (only with better control and a few less strikeouts per nine)...

NL
MVP: Troy Tulowitzky (COL) -- Tulo had an amazing season and his counting stats, already very good, were only truncated due to injury-limited playing time. Despite barely accruing 500 PA, he was top 10 in WAR amongst all MLB hitters. This kid deserves it, no doubt.

Cy Young: Roy Halladay (PHI) -- You can't really dispute this one, but Lincecum was almost as good and his season will likely be overlooked due to an awful August (sadly).

ROY: Jason Heyward (ATL) -- Sure, Posey plays the more premium position and had a comparable WAR, if pro-rated. Still, Heyward had the better season. Further, Heyward, at age 20, draw 91 walks (14.6% BB%). That's top 10 in the history of baseball for players under age 21. Heyward's season was something special and this is no knock on Posey here, but Heyward was just the better player.

SOY: Tommy Hanson (ATL) -- Chalk up a +4.4 WAR for the young pitching talent. Hanson's 2010 (3.37 ERA) had a few bumps (4.04 xFIP, 7.68 K/9), but it was still the best of any NL Sophomore...including Casey McGehee (+3.7 WAR).

Rolaids Reliever: Carlos Marmol (CHC) -- His 15.99 single season K/9 is a major league record.

*SOY = Sophomore Of The Year

Sexy Rexy's End Of Year Winners

AL

MVP: Josh Hamilton (TEX)

Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SEA)

ROY: Neftali Feliz (TEX)

SOY: David Price (TB)

Rolaids Reliever: Joakim Soria (KAN)

NL

MVP: Joey Votto (CIN)

Cy Young: Roy Halladay (PHI)

ROY: Buster Posey (SF)

SOY: Tommy Hanson (ATL)

Rolaids Reliever: Carlos Marmol (CHC)

*SOY = Sophomore Of The Year

Baseball Board Bets: Those Foolish Enough To Challenge DME

Because we all know these are the bets that count...

David "MVP" Eckstein v. The Bright One (7 bets)
WINNER: DME (5-2)

1) Will DME's fantasy team have a WHIP under 1.20?
DME: Of course! Why do you doubt my fantasy skills?
TBO: Absolutely not. Not two years in a row.
WINNER: DME -- Won it on the last day, courtesy of Beach Boy Brian Wilson.

2) Max Scherzer or Justin Masterson?
TBO: Dirty Scherzer
DME: Masterson, even though Lefties kill him
Winner: TBO, and it wasn't close.

3) Does Kendry Morales have 25 HR power?
DME: Barely (25 or less)
TBO: Nope (26 or more)
Winner: DME -- Morales ended the season (prematurely) with 11

4) Does Kelly Johnson reach the 20 HR plateau?
DME:Yerp
TBO: Nerp
Bill James: 14 (total)
WINNER: DME -- Johnson dinged 26.

5) Yahoo End of Season Player Rater: Evan Longoria or David Wright?
DME:Wright!
TBO: Longoria!
WINNER: DME -- Wright was the No. 3 man at the hot corner (#21 overall), behind Jose Bautisa (#8 overall) and Adrian Beltre (#18 overall). It was close, however, as Longoria, the #24 player in fantasy, was the fourth best third basemen in 2010.

6) Yahoo End of Season Player Rater: Jose Guillen or Vernon Wells
DME: Jose Guillen
TBO: Vernon Wells
WINNER: TBO -- Guillen was #270, Wells was #70

7) Unlisted Bet: Over Under Jose Bautista Home Runs: 29.
DME: Over
TBO: Under
WINNER: DME -- 54!


David "MVP" Eckstein v. Sexy Rexy (25 bets)
WINNER: SEXY REXY (15-9-1)
You can check out each of the DME vs Sexy Rexy bets and outcomes by clicking here


David "MVP" Eckstein v. Cubsfan4ever (6 bets)
WINNER: PUSH (3-3)
You can check out each of the DME vs Sexy Rexy bets and outcomes by clicking here

David "MVP" Eckstein's THT Board Bets (21 bets)
WINNER: DME (3-1)

1) Dan Haren vs. Zack Greinke (July-September numbers).

DME: Haren -- improved peripherals plus unlucky HR/FB rate plus top 5 MLB-defense = Haren is bound to turn his season around. Greinke's F-Strike% and Swinging Strike rate, on the other hand, have regressed from last year.
andrewakamds (Twitter): Greinke: He did not start the season sharp, but numbers are much improved in June.
WINNER: DME -- Haren put up a 3.34 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 105 IP, 5 W, 91:28 K/BB line in the second half, where as Greinke put up a 4.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 101 IP, 5 W, 80:33 K/BB

2) Bud Norris v. Manny Parra (July-September numbers).
DME: Bud Norris -- the wins will be sparse, as the Astros are one of the major's worst offensive teams, but Norris has is the MLB-leader in K/9 amongst starters and his control peripherals are not nearly as bad as his ugly 5.36 BB/9 indicates (mlb-avg F-strike%, for instance). I will concede, however, that his extreme FB ways are quite concerning.
Josh Shepardson: Manny Parra -- Consider me guilty of being a sucker for Manny Parra the last two seasons, but this year he appears to be turning the corner to some degree. My interest in Parra seemingly every season is the result of two things—namely, his decent strikeout rate (which is even better this year than in the past) and his solid groundball rate (which again is even better this year than in the past). Parra's biggest problem throughout his career has been his propensity to issue walks (4.38 BB/9 for his career) and this season has seen Parra post a BB/9 of 4.00, still higher than owners would hope for, but better than his career mark.
WINNER: DME -- and it wasn't even close.

3) Who will have a better second half: Johan Santana or Cole Hamels? (as determined by being better in more of the standard pitching categories)
DME: Cole Hamels. Santana's not the pitcher of old and the poor whiff numbers will inflate his expected ERA. Also, the Mets do not hit nearly as much as the Phillies. xFIP numbers are not particularly fond of Johan anymore. Hamels, on the other hand, gets tons of whiffs and walks very few batters. The xFIP gods smile fondly upon him
D. Kerstein: Johan Santana. He's a beast!
WINNER: DME -- Hamels blew Santana away in ERA, K-totals, K/9, and WHIP. He had more Wins too. Santana had a lower BB/9, however.

4) Who will have a better season: Victor Martinez or Ryan Doumit?
DME: Ryan Doumit. So long as the injuries are behind him, this guy can hit (at least for a catcher). I'm predicting a classic .275/15 HR/5 SB/60 RBI season. On the other hand, Martinez is old, hitting less line drives and has overrated power. I see his ceiling as .280/15 HR/0 SB/70 RBI. The numbers will be close, but I got my catcher in the last round.
D. Kerstein: Victor Martinez. It's V-Mart.
WINNER: D. Kerstein. Ryan Doumit got injured and utterly sucked in the second half, whereas Martinez turned his whole season around.

Baseball Board Bets: Cubsfan4evr vs. David "MVP" Eckstein

WINNER: A Tie (Cubsfan4evr 3---DME 3)
Cubsfan4evr1 and DME tied each getting three correct.

1) Who will be the better fantasy starting pitcher in 2010, Cole Hamels or Tommy Hanson (as judged by the Yahoo! player rater)?
WINNER: DME (Cole Hamels)
Cole Hamels was ranked 63 overall and Tommy Hanson was 93 overall.

2) Who will be the better fantasy player in 2010, Nelson Cruz or Ian Kinsler (as judged by the Yahoo! player rater)?
WINNER: Cubsfan4evr (Nelson Cruz)
Even with all of Nelson Cruz’s injuries this season he was ranked 73rd overall. Ian Kinsler was 219 overall.

3) Who will be the better fantasy player in 2010, CC Sabathia or Joey Votto (as judged by the Yahoo! player rater)?
WINNER: DME (Joey Votto)
Joey Votto was ranked 5th overall as judged by the Yahoo! player rater for the 2010 season. C.C Sabathia was ranked 32 overall.

4) Will Julio Borbón have a average over .270 this season?
WINNER: Cubsfan4evr (Yes)
Julio Borbón ended the season batting .276.

5) Who will be the better fantasy player in 2010, Grady Sizemore or Adam Lind or (as judged by the Yahoo! player rater)?
WINNER: Cubsfan4evr (Adam Lind)
This was the battle of the tallest midget. Both Adam Lind and Grady Sizemore had disappointing seasons. Sizemore was out for most of the season injured, but terrible when he was playing. Adam Lind picked his game up the second half, but only got his average up to the mid .230’s. Lind finished the season ranked 342 and Grady Sizemore finished 1249 overall.

6) Who will be the better fantasy player in 2010, Adam Lind or Carlos Quentin (as judged by the Yahoo! player rater)?
WINNER: DME (Carlos Quentin)
Carlos Quentin finished the season ranked 148 and as mentioned above, Lind finished 342.

Baseball Board Bets: Cubsfan4evr vs. The 'Bright' One

WINNER: A Tie (Cubsfan4evr 4---TBO 4)
As you will see most of our best were really close and we split them, each having 4 correct.

1) Will Ryan Zimmerman be a top 25 fantasy player in 2010 (as judged by the Yahoo! player rater)?
WINNER: Cubsfan4evr (No)
Ryan Zimmerman was the 53rd best player overall in fantasy judged by the Yahoo! player rater.

2) Will Adam Jones be a top 115 fantasy player in 2010 (as judged by the Yahoo! player rater)?
WINNER: TBO (No)
Adam Jones was the 122nd best player overall in fantasy as judged by the Yahoo! player rater.

3) Will Jose Reyes steal 35 or more bases in 2010?
WINNER: Cubsfan4evr (No)
Jose Reyes stole 30 bases for the 2010 season.

4) Will Brett Gardner steal 55 or more bases in 2010?
WINNER: TBO (No)
Brett Gardner stole 47 bases this season.

5) Will Ubaldo Jimenez have a ERA under 2.2 in 2010?
WINNER: Cubsfan4evr (No)
Ubaldo Jimenez finished the season with a 2.88

6) Who will be the better fantasy player in 2010, Jered Weaver or Clayton Kershaw (as judged by the Yahoo! player rater)?
WINNER: Cubsfan4evr (Jered Weaver)
Jered Weaver finished 17th overall and Clayton Kershaw finished 45 overall on the Yahoo! player rater.

7) Will Carlos Quentin hit 25 homeruns in 2010?
WINNER: TBO (Yes)
Carlos Quentin finished the season with 26 homeruns.

8) Will Tommy Hanson have a ERA under 3.00 in 2010?
WINNER: TBO (No)
Tommy Hanson finished the season with a 3.33 E.R.A

New York Jets: The Best Rushing Offensive Line

FootballOutsiders.com is the only site I've seen that actually measures how well a line does with blocking by measuring how well a player does close to the line of scrimmage (a measure of the line) versus how well a player does father away from the line of scrimmage (a measure to the talent of the player). I still don't 100% trust them, but I believe their stats more than a lot of people's "eye".

As of this exact moment (which does not include week four) the New York Jets have the third best rushing offensive line. Although this may change because they just had two running backs go over 100 yards in week four, I believe the Jets have the best rushing offensive line in the NFL.

When scientist do experiments (or really anyone) in order to measure a specific variable, they have to keep every other variable constant to test the specific variable. The New York Jets give us as close to a real life experiment as we possibly can get. While the line for the Jets has not been the same exact line over the past few years (most notably the departure of Alan Faneca this year) for the most part- this line and scheme (anchored by D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold) have stayed constant. The variable that have changed are the running backs the Jets have acquired over the past few years- most notably Thomas Jones and LaDainian Tomlinson. The changing variable of the running backs helps us test how good that constant offensive line really is.

Seeing Thomas Jones play in Chicago for three years, I can say with confidence, that even in his "old" age, he still looked good. I've always liked Jones and he had a career 4.11 YPC during his stint in Chi-Town. But in Thomas Jones' last two season in New York he had a YPC of 4.5 and 4.2 respectively.

I will admit that during Thomas Jones' first season New York he had AN AWFUL offensive line which showed in Jones YPC (3.6, his lowest since 2001) and in FO stats toward the Jets line (ranked 23rd among the 32 teams). This was largely accredited toward the poor play of 4th overall pick Ferguson. In fact, in 2007 FO ranked the Jets left tackle position's play 32nd among 32 teams. (Now considering I don't really watch Jets games I'm just making a strong educated guess that D'Brickasahw played at least 95% for the team at the left tackle position in 2007).

However, it was the right side of the line that dramatically improved the running back play in later years. In 2008, the left tackle position still was ranked last among all left tackles, but the center (Mangold) was 3rd at run blocking and the right guard and tackle were the very best at their position- one of whom I just found out while doing research for this post is an Illinois alum: Brandon Moore.

This improved line showed up in Thomas' Jones stats. In 2008, Jones had a 4.5 YPC- the best average he's had while getting at least 200 carries. In 2008, Thomas Jones also has the most TDs he had ever had in his career jumping from a career high 9 in 2005 to getting 13 in '08. This earned Jones his lone pro bowl appearance.

In 2009, Ferguson became mediocre (17th overall) as opposed to the worst guy ever while their center dropped to above average (12th overall) and their right tackle slot stayed the very best. But despite the "crappier" play of the Jets line, Thomas Jones had a career season getting a career high in touchdowns (14), yards (1402), and carries (331). All with a damn fine 4.2 YPC.

Thomas Jones' two best seasons was when he was 29 and 30 years old and for the Jets. In fact, most running backs who reach this age start to show signs of their decline. Case in point: LaDainian Tomlinson.

LT is one of the greatest running backs that has ever played the game of football. LT is 8th all time in rushing yards, 2nd all time in rushing TDs, 3rd all time in rushing/receiving yards, and 8th all time in rushing yards per game- just to name a few stats. LT could run the ball, catch the ball, and even pass the ball. But in his last two years in San Diego, when he was 29 and 30 years old, he looked like he was one bad hit away from retirement.

Between 2001 and 2007, Tomlinson has a YPC over 4.0 five times and a YPC over 5.0 twice and a YPC under 3.90 once. Between 2005-2007, LT had a 4.3, 5.2, and 4.7 yards per carry respectively. And then he looked like age hit him.

In 2008, Tomlinson had almost a yard per carry drop off (4.7 to 3.8) and he took an even bigger hit last year with a career low 3.3 YPC. During the 2009 off season, TBO and I called LT "done" and last year he did nothing bur prove us right.

But then he came to the fountain of youth that is the Jets rushing offensive line.

In four games, Tomlinson has a 6.09 YPC with 3 rushing touchdowns.

To further help prove my point, in 17 career games with 138 carries, former Iowa running back Shonn Greene has a career 4.7 YPC. And that doesn't include his 22 carries for 117 yards (a 5.3 YPC) that he had in Week Four.

In Leon Washington's four years on the Jets he never had a YPC under 4.3 and has 13 rushing TDs in 13 starts for the Jets.

The Jets' ability to make old running backs look like they're in the prime of their careers and to continue to make every running back that plays behind them have spectacular numbers makes the Jets have the best rushing offensive line in football right now.

DME Must Eat His Words. Literally.

To DME's demise, the baseball season is now officially over. To the rest of the rational male world, it's the football season so who really cares what happened in the past five months.

Because the baseball season is now over, that means fantasy baseball is now over and we can officially tabulate out Board Bets for the year. Fantasy baseball-wise DME outright won GOI's snake draft league while TBO finished 3rd. Sexy Rexy got third in the GOI auction league with DME finishing 4th and TBO 5th. But more on the leagues to come later. Hopefully.

But this post is about Board Bets. And the most notable bet is one between myself and DME. We bet who would finish higher in the AL Central: White Sox or Indians. The loser of this bet would literally have to eat their words. I picked the ChiSox. DME choose Cleveland (he pulled an opposite LeBron). Needless to say DME wasn't close.

Unfortunately Eckstein and myself are not in the same state right now, but when we do, I will film him honoring out bet and post it on GOI.

But now, onto my Board Bets which I dominated against all three other GOI authors.

Sexy Rexy v. David "MVP" Eckstein

WINNER: SEXY REXY (15-9-1)
Does this mean I get to write for The Hardball Times now?

1) Will the Chicago Cubs make the playoffs?
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (No)
Cubs finished 5th in NL Central

2) Over/Under .270 BA for Bacon
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Under)
Gordon Beckham finished the year with a .252 average

3) Over/Under .270 for DME's original GOI draft team (see Board Bet page for official players)
WINNER: DME (Over)
The total BA was .280

4) Over/Under 44.5 SB for Juan Pierre
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Over)
Pierre led the majors with 67 swiped bags

5) Will Cole Hamels be a top 15 pitcher this year?
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (No)
Despite his brillant end of the year, he ended the year as the 20th best pitcher. Close, but no cigar

6) Who hits more HR: Soto vs. Mauer or V-mart?
Winner: Sexy Rexy (Mauer/V-Mart)
V-Mart: 20; Soto: 17; Mauer: 9

7) Over/Under 100.5 GP for Quentin
WINNER: DME (Over)
CQ played in 131 games

8) Who finishes higher: Indians or ChiSox?
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (ChiSox)
White Sox finsheed 2nd in the division; Indians finshied 4th

9) Better ERA: Danks or Masterson
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Danks)
Danks: 3.72; Masterson: 4.73

10) Will the Indians finish bottom 2 in AL Central?
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Yes)
Indians finished 4th

11) Napoli vs. Iannetta (BA and HR)
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Napoli)
Napoli: .238 AVG, 26 HR; Iannetta: .201 BA, 9 HR

12) Hawpe vs. Juan Rivera
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Rivera)
Hawpe: 1025 overall; Rivera: 415 overall

13) Lester vs. Nolasco
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Lester)
Do you really need proof of this?

14) Over/Under 4.00 ERA for Peavy
WINNER: DME (Over)
4.63 ERA

15) Figgins SB vs. Howard HR
WINNER: DME (Figgins)
Figgins: 42 SB; Howard: 31 HR

16) Over/Under 2.5 HR for Pierre
WINNER: DME (Under)
He had one

17) Over/Under .250 BA for Andruw Jones
WINNER: DME (Under)
He had a .230 BA

18) Hughes vs. Vazquez
WINNER: DME (Hughes)
Hughes: 46th overall; Vazquez: A POS.

19) Votto or Cabrera
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Cabrera)
Cabrera was 3rd overall among hitters; Votto was 5th

20) Is Callaspo a top 10 2B or 3B?
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (No)
28th best 2B and 3B

21) Is Bobby Jenks a top 10 RP?
WINNER: DME (No)
Jenks wasn't even a top 75 RP

22)Josh Johnson vs. Strasburg in the second half
WINNER: ???
This bet was clearly made with the caveat of better via the player rater and while Strasburg pout up the better 4 x4 stats, he also did it with 36 less IP which severly limits his player rater status

23) Over/Under 1.30 WHIP in 2nd half for Tim Hudson
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Under)
1.17 WHIP in the second half

24) Ubaldo vs. Liriano in the 2nd half?
WINNER: DME (Liriano)
Liriano won wins (8-4), ERA (3.31 to 3.80), and WHIP (1.245 to 1.299). Ubaldo won strike outs (101 to 84)

25) Repo Man vs. Clayton Richard in the 2nd half
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Richard)
Richard won all four categories: Wins (8-4), ERA (4.30 to 4.85), WHIP (1.622 to 1.500) and Strikeouts (63 to 48)

Sexy Rexy vs. Cubsfan4evr

WINNER: SEXY REXY (4-1)

1) Derek Jeter vs. Jimmy Rollins
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Jeter)
Jeter: 3rd among SS; Rollins: 27th

2) Geovany Soto vs. Miguel Montero
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Soto)
Soto: 8th overall; Montero- not willing to count but not close to 8th

3) Ben Sheets vs. Ervin Santana
WINNER: Cubsfan4evr1 (Santana)
Again, not willing to count but I'm sure I lost

4) Most saves past Strausburg's debut: Capps vs. Storen/Clippard
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (Capps)
Capps: 23; Storen: 5; Clippard: 1

4) Will the White Sox make the playoffs?
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (No)

Sexy Rexy vs. The 'Bright' One

WINNER: Sexy Rexy (2-0)

1) Will Brad Lidge be a top 10 closer?
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (No)
Lidge was was 51st best RP and not a top 20 closer

2) QS for Justin Masterson on 5.19.10?
WINNER: Sexy Rexy (No)
I'll admit I won this bet in a bullshit way because Masterson went 5 IP with 2 ER (which is a lower ERA than 6 IP, 3 ER) but the exact wording of the bet that Masterson has to reach BOTH the innings pitched minimum AND the earned runs. He only met one.

Box Score Tonight: Week Four/ Early Games Edition

After my trip to China where I spraypainted "GOI" on it's Great Wall, I'm taking a break from reading some Trusts and Estates as writing for GOI (as opposed to writing "GOI").

Illinois Jerk off Alert

• Rashard Mendenhall is just freaking awesome. Sure only 79 yards on two carries, but 2 TDs to go along with it
  
• Pierre Thomas doesn't play due to injury
  
• Brandon Lloyd does amazing things
  

  
  Normal Stuff
   

• Like I predicted, Ravens defeat Pittsburgh 17-13. No surprise by the score.
  
• Charlie Batch does his best Charlie Batch impression: 57.8 passer rating
  
• I didn't see the game so I don't know what to think about Flacco's 82.7 passer rating. That could mean he played pretty good against this stingy Steelers D or that he's just not as good as I thought he was. For my own ego I'm gonna say the former
  
• "Start your studs" my ass. A hurt Ray Rice gets only 8 carries to Willis McGahee's 14. Neither had a YPC over 2.8 but McGahee got the TD.
  
• Saints barely scrape by the Panthers 16-14.
  
• I'm calling Drew Brees being hit by the Madden curse. ONLY a 90.2 passer rating. But in all seriousness, this lack on New Orleans scoring has me concerned
  
• I officially hate Marques Colston. Devery Henderson leads all Saints receivers in yards (59), targets (9), and tied for first in receptions (6). Lance Moore is looking, on paper, like his 2008 self getting a TD grab.
  
• With my boy Thomas out, Chris Ivory leads all NO backs in yards (67) and YPC (5.6) with one (12) less carry than Ladell Betts (13).
  
• Carolina running backs finally do something for once. The Daily Show leads all receivers with 55 yards and a TD while DeAngelo Williams gets 86 yards on 13 carries (6.6 YPC) and a TD
  
• Jimmy Clausen (90.6) technically has a better passer rating on the day than Brees and Flacco.
  
• 3 targets, 2 receptions, and 11 yards. Be afraid for Steve Smith. Be very afraid.
  
• St. Louis has more wins (2) than they did last year (1) in only four games
  
• I really don't know what to think of Seattle. They're the bi-polar Don't Say A Word Brittany Murphy of the NFL
  
• Stephen Jackson is healthy-ish getting 70 yards on 22 carries (3.2 YPC)
  
• Sam Bradford I'm sure is awesome and maybe St. Louis made the right draft choice
  
• Pete Carrol is finally being smart and giving all the carries to Justin Forsett who got 19 today. But only a 3.4 YPC against an awful Rams D.
  
• Of course, another Chicago player looks amazing after he leaves the team. This time it's Kyle Orton and his 70% completion percentage. 341 yards, 2 TDs to 1 INT
  
• Since Week One I've been saying that (when healthy) Brandon Lloyd is the Broncos wide out you want. He leads all receivers in this game with 18 targets, 11 receptions, and 115 yards
  
• I also have two board bets where I took Eddie Royal over Demaryius Thomas and Jabar Gaffney. Royal catches all 8 of his targets, gets 113 yards and a TD. Hey FFSpin, I have a prize coming my way I believe.
  
• With Knowshon Moreno out again, Laurence Maroney gets 11 carries and Correll Buckhalter gets 6. But Orton leads Denver in rushing yards with 11.
  
• Vince Young only gets one carry but throws it decently effectively with a 90.3 passer rating. But his YPA is awful which means he did a lot of dinks and dumps.
  
• Chris Johnson is not gonna be close to breaking Eric Dickerson's record. He gets a pitiful 53 yards on 19 carries.
  
• Kenny Britt may the Tennessee recover you want from here on out. He (7) got two more targets than Nate Washington (5) and a TD. But Washington led all Titans receivers with 42 yards.
  
• Detroit is not getting pummeled in games like we all thought they would be as they only lose to GB by 2.
  
• Detroit finally realized that their best receiver (Calvin Johnson) wasn't doing shit so they threw it to him 11 times. Johnson rewards the team by getting 2 TDs.
  
• Detroit TE's step up. 11 targets for Brandon Pettigrew and 10 for Tony Scheffler
  
• On eight less carries Shawn Hill (4) got 3 more rushing yards (and led all Lions rushers) than Jahvid Best (12)
  
• Aaron Rodgers is good but can not be considered best real or fantasy QB right now- despite his 105.2 passer rating, 71% completion percentage and 3 TDs today
  
• Ryan Grant may not be an elite real life back but he's a HUGE upgrade over Brandon Jackson.
  
• Driver, Finley, and Jennings all get TDs. Jennings is doing the opposite of what he did last year. He's getting the TDs but with no yards to go with them.
  
• Cleveland pulls out an upset defeating Cincinatti
  
• The one week I face against TO (because Miles Austin was on a bye) he gets 222 yards on 10 receptions and 2 TDs.
  
• Carson Palmer has a 121.4 passer rating. I don't know if I should credit Palmer's talent or the fact that Cincy was down some late in this game and prolly threw to make up points. I won't be a hater and say both.
  
• In Week One I suggested picking up Peyton Hillis. He rewards me with 102 yards and a TD. Although only a 3.8 YPC.
  
• Jets pummel the Bills Oregon-style 38-14.
  
• I knew I wasn't going to own Shaun Greene in any leagues and I got LT in the GOI league, but I will fully admit I did not predict this awesomeness from the dead one: 133 yards on 19 carries (7.0 YPC) with 2 TDs. Also 3 catches for 22 yards.
  
• Greene also does awesome things (117 yards on 22 carries but no TDs) however they're just not as awesome as LT
  
• Braylon Edwards sobers up and gets 86 yards on 4 receptions and a TD
  
• I'm starting to think mark Sanchez could actually be a top 20 QB in this league: 106.4 passer rating today
  
• The Bills suck. End of discussion.
  
• Falcons come back and defeat 49ers 16-14
  
• Frank Gore can do all –except be inside the endzone. 77 yards on 21 carries and 60 yards on 7 receptions
  
• Michael Turner and Matt Ryan suck. Roddy White is probably a top 3 wide out and better than Andre Johnson right now. But Harry Douglas (kind of a bad porn name) gets a TD.

The Most And Least RBI-Efficient Batters Of All Time

Despite the utter uselessness of RBIs, I thought I might look at which players were the most (and least) "RBI efficient" in their career. I calculated RBI efficiency by taking a player's career RBI total and dividing it by his career extra base hit (XBH) total. In essence, I am calculating which players racked up the most runs batted per base. I only looked at hitters with 5000+ PA. You can see the whole chart by clicking here, but below I've listed the top and bottom RBI/xBH hitters.

TOP 36 ALL TIME RBI-EFFICIENT HITTERS

(click to embiggen)

I would never have guessed it if you asked me, but Cap Anson is the all time leader is RBI per base. On the leaderboard, you also find such famous middle-of-the-order hitters as Hank Greenberg, Hack Wilson, Cecil Fielder and some guy name Lou Gehrig.

BOTTOM 36 ALL TIME RBI-EFFICIENT HITTERS

(click to embiggen)

As you might guess, the least efficient RBI producers tend to be light hitting lead off men. Juan Pierre, Ichiro Suzuki, Luis Castillo, Vince Coleman, etc. No surprise here.

Perhaps I'll follow this up with OBP-Efficient Runs scorers later. Honestly, these images mean very little. RBIs are at least as much the byproduct of lineup placement and the OBPs of those who bat in front of you as they are of hits percentage and ISO. Still, it is fun to look at which hitters produced more RBI per base than others. Utterly useless, but interesting to note.

My Favorite Post Game Rants

Now Sportscenter always has a top ten rants every time a coach goes off during his post game (and then they get turned into Coors Light commercials) so what I'm doing is certainly not groundbreaking, but it's still enjoyable seeing these rants

1) "The Bears are who we thought they were!" Dennis Green

After a great 5-0 start in 2006, the best team in the NFL at the time were the Chicago Bears, and they came into Arizona to play (at the time) a pitiful Cardinals team led by the worst QB ever: Matt Leinart. After an awful, awful, awful and Rex Grossman-like performance by Rex Grossman, it looked like the Cardinals would pull off the upset. But after two fumbles/strips of Edgerrin James that lead to TDs, a Hester punt return TD, and Neil Rackers missing a FG as time expired, the Bears pulled out a win.

This game might have been the best professional football game I've ever seen. It also led to my favorite post game rant of all time.



2) "I'm a man! I'm 40!" Mike Gundy



3) "Playoffs!" Jim Mora



4) "You play to win the game!" Herm Edwards



A top to compilation by ESPN

Honorable mention by TBO

The Amazing Chicago Rushing D

I was originally going to title this post "Bench Ahmad Bradshaw In Week Four" but I thought I'd give props to the Bears defense instead.

Through three games, the Chicago Bears leads all NFL teams with the least amount of rushing yards given up (119) which is 44 yards less than 2nd place (While 44 may not seem like a like put this into perspective: the difference between 2nd and 3rd place in 16 yards and the difference between 3rd place and 4th place is 6 yards)

Here's what backs have done against Chicago this year:
- Jahvid Best: 20 yards on 14 carries (1.4 YPC)
- Felix Jones: 7 yards on 7 carries (1.0 YPC)
- Marion Barber: 31 yards on 11 carries (2.8 YPC)
- Brandon Jackson: 12 yards on 7 carries (1.7 YPC)
- John Kuhn: 31 yards on 6 carries (5.2 YPC)

The more successful backs against Chicago are the pound-it-up-the-middle backs like Barber and Kuhn, but I still don't trust really YPC numbers when a back only gets 6 carries. Call it confirmation bias, but I still don't like any running back to do well (real or fantasy) against the Bears.

Not only do the numbers back it up, but if you watch the Bears, those linebackers (especially) just look amazing against the run. They seem to know what play is going to happen before the offense knows it- and they actually execute.

So if you asked me to predict which Giants running back would do well against the Bears, history would tell you the more physical back (Jacobs) would do better against the more "finesse" guy (Bradshaw) but Jacobs has looked AWFUL since the beginning of 2009 and (if) he plays against the Bears, I don't care what his "skill set" is, he sucks.

In Week Four, in one league I own Ahmad Bradshaw, the only reason I'm starting him is because I only have four backs (five including my stud's handcuff- Anthony Dixon) and my fourth back is Felix Jones- on a bye. This week I ranked Bradshaw as the 31st best RB. I would only start Bradshaw if you're like me and you're back ups are on bye. But otherwise, i would bench Bradshaw and any other RB facing the Chicago Bears. That it until Brian Urlacher and/or Piso Tinoisamoa get hurt.