Do The Red Sox Need Varitek?

Curt Schilling thinks the Red Sox need Jason Varitek. At a cost of more than $5 million dollars a year, Fangraphs strongly disagrees. Neither Bill James, CHONE or Marcel thinks Varitek is going to bounce back in any way from his 2008 performance. Tek is a player on the decline; at age 36, there is little reason to resign him other than to help "coach" the team's young pitchers (which, by the way, is the job of the pitching coach and/or Kevin Costner).

Fangraphs put Varitek's production value at an astonishingly high $5.6 million (he contributed 1.2 Value Wins to the team, each win being worth [according to calculated league average salary/win contribution] $4.47 million). Baseball Prospectus indicated that the career of a Catcher begins to (sharply) decline somewhere around the age of 32:
"Catchers hold their value pretty well during their late 20s, comparable to other positions. The 30 to 33 range is very volatile... after age 34, things go downhill very quickly for catchers, a trend noticeable even in the very small sample sizes beyond age 35."
Based on empirical evidence, BP suggests that "the physical demands of the position...tend to reduce both the length of their [catchers] peaks and the length of their careers." Knowing this only affirms the conventional wisdom that it would be generally unwise for any team to sign Jason Varitek to an extended contracted.

At this point, however, the Red Sox are in dire need of a capable major league-ready catcher for the 2009 season if they plan on competing. To this point, I assert that the Red Sox sign Varitek to a contract worth no more than $3-4 million a year for no more than two years. Seeing as how Varitek turned down arbitration and would cost any team who signs him a draft pick, Varitek is being flagged. There is little room for him to negotiate a 2009 salary if he plans on playing anywhere other than Boston sometime before June (at which point, he is going to have to take a partial season pay cut anyway). A low value (perhaps incentive laiden) two year contract would be ideal because it would give the Red Sox three viable options for the future at the backstop, in my opinion.
  1. Wait two years and sign Joe Mauer, who will be a free agent in 2011 at age 28 (just to clarify, Mauer will turn 28 right before the 2011 season), to an extended contract (4-6 years). Upside: with enough money to spend, the Sox could probably pull this off no problem. Downside: signing Mauer would almost assuredly cost the Sox their first round pick.
  2. Trade Michael Bowden for Taylor Teagarden. The Red Sox have a very deep farm system when it comes to pitching; the converse is true about their minor league catchers. Obtaining a young player with as much upside as Teagarden could provide much future security for the Red Sox behind the plate.
  3. Trade Clay Buchholz for Max Ramirez or Jarrod Saltalamaccia. Same logic as assertion #2, only I've downgraded the pieces of the trade on both sides of the table. It's already publically know that the Rangers covet Bowden and Buchholz and won't trade any of their young catchers for anything less than top talent. Given the Rangers' surplus of talent behind the plate, a swap of player depths between Boston and Texas seems most logical (especially since the Dbacks probably aren't willing to give up Miguel Montero at a reasonable price).
By 2011, any one of these four players should be ready and able to go as the Red Sox future catcher.

6 comments:

Adam Kaplan said...

Jason Veriteck SUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCKKKKKSSSS

How the fuck can players be so retarded to vote him as an All-Star. I guarantee you if I was behind the plate throwing signals that Red Sox rotation would perform just as well. You'd think a Bill James team would realize that pitching performance is completely independent of who the catcher is

I'm pretty sure every club wants to fucken sign Joe Mauer, I think that's just obvious

SIDENOTE: I like how the Rangers trade away Teixeria for Jarrod Satalamacchie43feqwlhfverwfcvek and then don't play him at C. The Rangers are stupid and if we start a rumor that someone in the Red Sox farm system is good the Rangers'll wanna trade for that pitcher. I wonder if the Rangers have ever heard of...um... scouts. Look at all the shitty players the traded for that everyone called good but in reality weren't- like Brandon McCarthy

Also, you need a title

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Actually, they didnt trade Tex for Salty. They got like four really good players, one of whom is Elvus Andrews -- the future SS of the Rangers organization.

Secondly, the Rangers have the best (at the very least second best) Farm system in all of baseball. You should actually look at it. It's very deep, but very young. The rangers are projected to be playoff contenders by 2010 or 2011. Interestingly enough, they also have a several extremely talented, but young (18-19 years old) pitchers.

Check out Keith Law's prospect rankings at http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3840355

he also ranked farm systems a week ago and the Rangers were definitely top 3.

The 'Bright' One said...

I would sign varitek. They're not gonna find anyone better for next year, unless you really like paul bako. Maybe varitek just needs lasik eye surgery to fix all his problems.

The rangers will not be playoff contenders by 2011 considering the 19 years olds will only be getting to the majors that year. They currently have zero pitchers(sorry millwood and padilla).

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Thats what im saying, dmitry. only the sox should and prob will sign tek, but it need to be at a hefty discount. no fucking Posada money

Adam Kaplan said...

actually I do like Paul Bako

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Paul Bako is the cubs'. Back off