Rivers or Brees: Did the Chargers Make The Right Choice?

Drew Brees has always been a really good QB throughout his entire career. But in 2006, the San Diego Chargers had a choice to make: Do they attempt to re-sign their pretty good QB in Brees, or do they let him go into free agency and stick with their young “#1 overall” draft pick Philip Rivers? Well, I think we all know how that decision turned out. Three seasons later and Philip Rivers is a top five QB in the league and Drew Brees just won the city of New Orleans a Superbowl. The Chargers could have easily traded away their young prospect and stick with what they know what works, but they didn’t. So, did they make the right choice?

It’s obviously really hard to make a full, objective comparison because both QBs play in different systems with different receivers had different running games and whatnot. A ten yard throw on a out rout to Vincent Jackson might get caught but essentially the same exact throw to Marques Colston might get dropped- thus looking different on each QBs stats. However, both QBs are elite guys and the statistical comparisons can still be pretty accurate.

I think the best place to start looking to see if the Chargers made the right choice is to look at the contracts each QB received. If Brees is slightly better than Rivers statistically but is getting paid 5 million more per year, then it’s still worth it for the team to play Rivers over Brees because it’s most cost-efficient for them. In 2004, when Rivers first came on to the team, he signed a six year, $40.5 million contract. In 2006, Drew Brees signed a six year $60 million dollar deal. Maybe the Chargers would have been able to get a “home town discount” to resign Brees, but if Brees and the choice to get paid less to play for the team that drafted him, I highly doubt he would have taken it. Because Rivers was still yet unproven, the team was able to get their younger player for less money.

Now on to the statistics:
2009
Philip Rivers: 3rd in DYAR, 1st in DVOA
Drew Brees: 4th in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA
2008
Philip Rivers: 3rd in DYAR, 2nd in DVOA
Drew Brees: 1st in DYAR, 3rd in DVOA
2007
Philip Rivers: 16th in DYAR, 20th in DVOA
Drew Brees: 5th in DYAR, 12th in DVOA
2006
Philip Rivers: 6th in DYAR, 7th in DVOA
Drew Brees: 2nd in DYAR, 2nd in DVOA

*For a better understand of DVOA or DYAR, click here*

For the first two years after Brees left San Diego, Brees was the better QB- but that was to be expected. Rivers was young and he needed to develop. And four years later Rivers has developed. And he has developed into a better QB than Drew Brees has become. Yes, Brees has put up flashy numbers- more yards and TDs and whatnot. But Brees has also made more attempts. In fact, for the past two years, Rivers has led the league in YPA, but outside the top ten in passing attempts (in Brees’ record setting year last year- he led the league with 635 attempts!).

When trying to decide who the better QB is, you need to look at it in as much as a vacuum as possible. An ever better way of looking at it is- if Drew Brees were still in San Diego, would he have been better than Philip Rivers? The answer is “no” because when you subtract the extra attempts Brees has gotten from playing in New Orleans, his numbers would look inferior to Rivers’ numbers over the past two years (DVOA and DYAR helps equalize numbers as well).

Here's some more stats for you:
Rivers is 3rd among active QBs in TD% (Brees is 9th), 3rd among all QBs all time in passer rating (Brees is 9th), 3rd among active QBs in Yards per Pass Completion (Brees in 24th), and t-4th among active QBs in YPA (Brees is 9th). Drew Brees is t-4th among active QBs in completion % (Rivers is 11th).

Now you can always make the argument that maybe the Chargers would have won a Superbowl during the first two years since Brees left because the Chargers had an amazing defense, and a healthy and awesome LT. And maybe aliens would have come down to Earth and killed us all had Brees not left for New Orleans. While it's certainly plausible, you just never know and speculating won't do you any good. Maybe Brees would have done amazing in those playoff games or maybe he throws two pick sixes. During an individual game, anything is plausible.

So did the Chargers make the correct choice? Well they got the better, younger, and cheaper QB so yes, yes they did.

And while we're on the subject, if Rivers were on the Giants or Steelers, he also would have won a Superbowl so don't give me any shit that Manning or Roethlisberger is the better of those three- Rivers is by the far the better QB.