Shortstop Is One Player Deep

In fantasy, the shortstop position has always been extremely shallow. But in recent years, guys like Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, and Jose Reyes has made it so everybody has at least gotten the opportunity to get a top tier shortstop. However, that is not the case in 2010 because there is only top tier shortstop and you're probably not going to be able to get him- Hanley Ramirez.

The problem is every shortstop that's going to be taken after Hanley has his flaws. Sure, by the time you take Ryan Theriot or Christian Guzman (which I did as like my last pick in the draft last year), then you know what you're expecting. But it's the shortstops that are being drafted as starters that are the problems. Sure, all the top 8 or so starters being drafted having great upside, but you're taking on a huge risk with them as well- especially for the early draft position you're going to have to take them at.

So here's a list of the top shortstops you're going to have to take if you want a "top tier" shortstop

2) Troy Tulowitzki (15.97 ADP)
As much as TBO wants to be naked with Tulo and do dirty things to him, and even though I will probably draft him, there's a lot of flaws in drafting Tulo. Although Tulo is young, I think people forget that Tulo only has three years major league experience, and his 2008 season was really bad. Sure, Tulo's the least risky because he's always shown speed, power, and a high batting average. But you do take on a little risk that his 2009 numbers regress closer to his 2008 numbers.

3) Jimmy Rollins (21.81 ADP)
Rollins' fantasy value has decreased tremendously from his "MVP" season a few years back. While he made great strides in the second half of last season from his awful first, he still is nowhere near even being the third best shortstop for next year. His batting average has steadily decreased the past three years, his stolen base numbers took a missive hit from 47 in '08 to 31 in '09 (also his SPD score has steadily declined the past three years), his ISO has taken missive hits (.235 in '07 to .160 in '08 to .173 in '09), and his home runs have taken massive hits (30 HR in '07, 11 in '08, 21 in '09; 10.7 HR/FB% in '07, 7.2 HR/FB% in '08, 8.5% in '09.)
The point is, while Rollins has improved from is dreadful 2008 campaign, he's not the same MVP Jimmy Rollins that you might think he is.

4) Jose Reyes (23.18 ADP)
Guy was a lock for 60+ stolen bases and a high average- until he suffered a leg injury that needed major surgery. As DME has shared with me, it's risky as hell taking a guy, who derives most of his value from steals, that had a injury that directly affects how he steals bases.

5) Derek Jeter (45.37)
Jeter will get the runs you want from him because he bats second in probably the best line up in baseball. And he'll get you about a .320 batting average like clockwork. But you can get runs and average essentially anywhere, you want Jeter to get you the 30+ swipes and the 15+ dingers like he got you last year. The risk you take on with Jeter, first of all, is that Jeter is 35 years old going on 36. There is a huge risk that Jeter gets injured. But that's not even the biggest reason Jeter scares, the biggest reason is that Jeter's numbers ballooned last year from his previous two years. His home run numbers the past three years: 12, 11, 18. His SB numbers from the past three years: 15, 11, 30. You can say Jeter's home run numbers increased because of New Yankee Stadium, but it takes at least three years to truly determine the impact a stadium has on players. Plus, the new park doesn't count for the tremendous jump he took with this stolen bags. When a player's numbers spikes this much with a player as old as Jeter, it worries me that he'll probably regress in 2010.

6) Ben Zobrist (55.55 ADP)
Now if you can truly get Zobrist this late, you probably got him where he should be ranked. But I have a feeling that MockDraftCentral has Zobrist this low because he only has 2B eligibility and he'll probably have 2B, SS, and OF eligibility in your league and thus will be ranked higher. Thus you will have to take him higher than you probably want to. The risk you take with Zobrist, is that, in all likelihood, Zobrist had a career year last year. But you're drafting him like he's going to put up 2009 numbers, when you should be taking him a round later or so because of his dipped, 2010 numbers.

7) Jason Bartlett (104.54)
For where you're going to take Bartlett realistically, you're not taking on as much risk as you are with Jeter or Reyes, but there's some risk nonetheless. It's the risk that Bartlett will not sustain his 2009 value. Before last year, Bartlett has only hit above .286 once (.309 in 2006), never hit above 5 home runs, never stolen above 23 bags, and never hit in over 43 guys before, and never scored above 75 runs (all in '07). Sure, it helps that Bartlett plays for a much better offense in Tampa Bay than he ever did in Minnesota, but I doubt that his stolen bags and home runs stay on pace or exceed his 2009 numbers.

The guys after Bartlett are Alexei Ramirez (108.96 ADP) and Stephen Drew (113.90 ADP) so if you draft those guys as your starters, you already know the downside you're probably going to get from them anyway.

Let me just clarify before I go, I'm not saying that all these shortstops will be bad. Jose Reyes' leg could be completely healed and he could get you 70+ steals. New Yankee Stadium might help Jeter go 15/30 again. Tulo could have another amazing year and his down year could just have been a fluke. But what I am saying is that you're taking on a lot of risk to get that shortstops upside, and that kind of sucks considering how early you're going to have to take these shortstops. Because you want your first seven picks or so to be almost guarantees and you're not going to get that with these SS.

Also, Hanley could get injured on the second game of the season so, you never know.