Tommy Hanson vs Jordan Zimmermann

In my opinion, the two best pitching prospect to arrive in the big leagues this year are Tommy Hanson of the Braves and Jordan Zimmermann of the Nationals. No disrespect to guys like Ricky Romero and Randy Wells, but if your fastball isn't in the mid 90's it's hard to dominant over a full career. Luckily, Hanson and Zimm average 93mph on the fastball promising a very bright future for both.

Both guy's have had a small sample size in the majors, under 100 IP, but certain conclusions can be made from their minor and major league performances. In the minors, Hanson was the superior prospect making opponents at all levels look childish. In twice as many minor league innings, Hanson had the superior K rate at nearly 11, ERA, FIP, WHIP, with an equivalent walk rate. Hanson had the expected progression through the minors pitching around a 100 innings at each level, while Zimm was rushed through the minors pitching a total of 180 innnings since being drafted.

The major league performance has been the reverse of their minor league numbers. Despite a low 3.22 era for Hanson in the majors, his 4.5 FIP shows his true performance so far. The K rate has plummeted to 6 while the walk rate has spiked to 4. Zimm on the other hand has the higher era at 4.63, but his superior 3.56 FIP is reflected by his 9K and 2.86BB rate. Striking out more than a batter per inning in the majors is no easy task as there are only 13 such starters. Although both player gives up home runs below league average, Zimmermann has the much better gb/fb ratio making him a true strike-out/ground ball pitcher which makes sabermetricians horny.

When it comes to stuff, I would give a slight advantage to Jordan Zimmermann as well. Both players throw the fastball at 93, but Zimm throws it about 10% more often which is good because a pitcher needs to be able to control and rely on his fastball. Zimm also gets more swings and misses based on the lower contact percentage particularly in the strike zone.

Shockingly, these two pitchers appear to be near clones of each other with the same collection of pitches and stuff. Despite Zimmermann's early success, I would still prefer to have the upside of Tommy Hanson. His superior K rate and K/BB ratio in the minors projects great to the big leagues. I also love his short-arm delivery that is very difficult for hitters to pick up and makes the ball appear faster than it really is.